A Statistical Look at the Flyers, through 16 Games

Once again, I was able to get Tom Awad of Puck Prospectus to give me his most recently compiled data on GVT.  

(Here's the link to my earlier story breaking down the VUKOTA projection based on GVT). 

The data's most recent update was from Sunday, November 15th, so last week's games against the Devils, Kings, Sharks, and Coyotes are not included.  Obviously, last night's game against the Avalanche is also not included.

Needless to say, there are some positives and some negatives through 20% of the schedule. Most interesting is just how good James van Riemsdyk has been, how well Ray Emery has played, and another look at The Pronger effect.

Follow after the jump for the findings.

Here is the table of Tom's results for the Flyers:

Name Team(s) P GP G/GAA A/GA Pts/SA +-/Sv OGIT DIT RPM Val OG Val D Val S Total
1 Ray Emery Philadelphia Flyers G 15.2 2.24 34 431 0.921 8.8 1.3 0 6 0.1 0.6 6.7
2 Chris Pronger Philadelphia Flyers D 16 4 13 17 13 8.6 7.9 11.2 3.8 2.5 0 6.3
3 Matt Carle Philadelphia Flyers D 16 2 10 12 17 8.2 6.8 14.7 2.1 2.6 0 4.7
4 James van Riemsdyk* Philadelphia Flyers F 13 4 11 15 7 4.7 3.9 5.1 3.1 0.7 0 3.8
5 Jeff Carter Philadelphia Flyers F 16 7 12 19 2 7.5 6 -1.1 3.5 0.3 -0.2 3.6
6 Mike Richards Philadelphia Flyers F 16 8 8 16 2 6.9 7.5 0 3.1 1 -0.7 3.4
7 Claude Giroux Philadelphia Flyers F 16 1 7 8 5 4.4 3.8 4.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 2.5
8 Kimmo Timonen Philadelphia Flyers D 16 1 11 12 -2 8.5 9.1 -5.4 1.8 0.5 0 2.3
9 Scott Hartnell Philadelphia Flyers F 16 5 7 12 0 5.6 4.3 -1.7 2 0.1 0 2.1
10 Braydon Coburn Philadelphia Flyers D 16 3 4 7 -3 7 8.9 -6.5 1 0.4 0 1.3
11 Danny Briere* Philadelphia Flyers F 12 7 3 10 -2 5.6 4.4 -4 1.6 -0.1 -0.5 1.1
12 David Laliberte* Philadelphia Flyers F 4 2 1 3 4 1.1 1 3.5 0.7 0.4 0 1.1
13 Blair Betts Philadelphia Flyers F 9 1 1 2 3 1.8 2.9 2.4 0 0.7 0 0.7
14 Simon Gagne Philadelphia Flyers F 9 1 4 5 2 2.9 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.6
15 Daniel Carcillo Philadelphia Flyers F 16 2 1 3 4 2.7 2.5 2.9 0 0.5 0 0.5
16 Arron Asham Philadelphia Flyers F 13 3 1 4 -1 2.9 2.8 -2.7 0.4 0 0 0.4
17 Darroll Powe Philadelphia Flyers F 16 5 0 5 -2 4.4 4.6 -4.8 0.4 0.1 0 0.4
18 Ryan Parent Philadelphia Flyers D 8 0 2 2 -1 1.6 2.4 -1.8 0.3 0.1 0 0.4
19 Ian Laperriere Philadelphia Flyers F 16 1 3 4 -1 4 5.2 -3.3 -0.3 0.4 0 0.1
20 O. Tollefsen Philadelphia Flyers D 9 0 2 2 -1 2.2 2.5 -2.4 0.1 -0.1 0 0.1
21 Mika Pyorala* Philadelphia Flyers F 16 0 1 1 3 3.4 4.1 1.4 -1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1
22 Riley Cote Philadelphia Flyers F 4 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.3 0 -0.1 0 0 -0.1
23 Oskars Bartulis* Philadelphia Flyers D 2 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.6 -0.3 -0.1 0 0 -0.1
24 Danny Syvret Philadelphia Flyers D 13 0 2 2 -3 2.9 3.6 -4.7 0 -0.2 0 -0.2
25 Brian Boucher Philadelphia Flyers G 1 4 4 28 0.857 0.6 0.1 0 -1 0 0 -0.9

First, you can figure out most of the stat categories, but OGIT is offensive/goalie ice time, while DIT is defensive ice time.  RPM is Puck Prospectus' adjusted plus/minus, an explanation of which can be found here.  Val OG is offensive/goalie GVT score, while Val D and Val S are GVT defensive score and shootout score, respectively.

Second, who gets the credit for three of the Flyers four best players being off-season acquisitions?  Having Ray Emery, Chris Pronger, and James van Riemsdyk at the top of this table might be a surprise, but not to anyone who has been watching the Flyers this season.

As the table shows (and you could see for yourself), James van Riemsdyk has been one of the team's best players so far.  Using GVT, he's the fourth best Flyer so far this season, and the best forward.  At a total GVT of 3.8, van Riemsdyk finds himself tied for 56th place in the entire NHL.  For a guy who wasn't even a lock to make the team, that's quite an accomplishment.  As far as rookies go, he is listed as the third best behind Washington goaltender Semyon Varlamov and Colorado forward Ryan O'Reilly. 

Another pleasant surprise this season has been the play of Ray Emery.  Many are still not convinced (and that's understandable) but his performance through the Flyers first 16 games was not easily topped.  He was ranked the 10th best player in the NHL - tied with Marian Gaborik - with a 6.7 total GVT.  Among goalies, he came in 7th.  He also came in 7th for save percentage and was tied for third in goals against average.  It may be a small sample size, but these rankings are relative to every other goalie, and he tied for the 10th most ice time in the league.  You may have noticed that he gained points for his performance in the shootout - stopping 7 of 9 shots against - in which he is tied for 26th among all NHL players, and tied for 10th among goalies.  Now, the skeptical amongst you can point to Antero Niittymaki's stats (8.8 total GVT) which are as good, if not better than Sugar Ray's.  They would be right.  However, Martin Biron is only at 1.7 total GVT, so... call it even?

Another hard to miss development in the table is Chris Pronger and Matt Carle sitting second and third.  Obviously, this is where The Pronger effect shows the extent of its reach.  Before the season, most people predicted that Chris Pronger would elevate the play of his partner.  But to hear "Matt Carle" and "Olympic team" (let alone "Norris Trophy") in the same sentence is still unusual.  Personally, I've always been a fan of Carle's, but not many people would argue that he is in fact, this good.  For this one, I'm just going to use bullet points.

  • Overall, Pronger is ranked as the 16th best overall player in the NHL with Carle tied for 33rd.  This equals 1st and 6th, respectively, among defensemen.
  • Pronger's offensive contributions rank him tied for 20th in the NHL with Joe Thornton, and just above Jeff Carter.  No, that's not a typo.  Pronger is contributing offensively at the same rate as Joe Thornton.
  • On the defensive side, Pronger is 5th in the NHL while Carle is tied for 2nd.
  • GVT ranks Pronger as the second best two-way player in the NHL, while Carle is tied for 12th.  Perspective: Anze Kopitar is in 1st, Pavel Datsyuk is tied with Carle, and Sidney Crosby is tied for 18th.
  • They were first and second in all of the NHL in plus/minus, with Pronger falling from second to third in Relative Plus Minus.  Carle maintained his lead in that category.
  • Carle was tied for 11th in scoring among defensemen.

I think it's safe to say Chris Pronger has a lot to do with how well Matt Carle is playing.  Aware that this is probably getting a little long, I'll finish it up with a few assorted thoughts. (More bullet points!)

  • Claude Giroux is known as a good defensive player, and it shows in his defensive GVT - second best among Flyer forwards at 0.8.  And while you may have guessed Blair Betts (0.7) was third, he is tied with two others: James van Riemsdyk and Mika Pyorala.  I can hear your surprise.
  • Darroll Powe's offensive value through 16 games was equal to Simon Gagne's through 9.  That speaks more to Gagne's injury than Powe's ability, but it's still interesting.
  • David Laliberte's offensive value through 4 games was equal to Claude Giroux's through 16.  That will happen when you score twice as many goals in a quarter as many games.
  • We can mostly agree that Danny Syvret played his way out of the Flyers lineup.  But Steve Eminger, Luke Schenn, Hal Gill, and Nick Schultz were tied with him in total GVT and Brett Lebda, Ruslan Salei, Andrej Sekera, Jeff Woywitka, Luca Sbisa, Brendan Mikkelson, Andrew Ference, Aaron Ward, and Jack Johnson were all worse.
  • For those wondering, Randy Jones through three games has a GVT of 0.5, but only a 0.1 defensive rating; the same defensive value as both Darroll Powe and Ryan Parent. 
  • Lastly, remember that clamoring for Mike Komisarek in the off-season?  He's tied for the third worst skater in the league with a total GVT of -1.3.  Also, Jay Bouwmeester is tied for 190th with a 1.8.

Much thanks to Tom Awad for giving me this data again.  Hopefully, this will become available more frequently and with less hassle.  Any questions, just ask.  I have his entire spreadsheet if there's anything you want to look at.

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