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Daily News Reporter Finds New Stats, Shows Ignorance

Since I don't want to go all Fire Joe Morgan, I'll put this in a FanPost.  Personally, I'm a big fan of Gabriel Desjardins' blog, Behind the Net.  Apparently, Flyers beat writer Frank Seravalli has found Gabe's excellent work as well:  and he doesn't understand it.

In his story today, "Plenty of problems but Flyers coach Stevens isn't to blame," Seravalli deviates from his defense of Stevens to say "Once heralded as the best offensive depth in the NHL, the Flyers' AHL replacements have been horrible."  He cites Nodl, Ross, and Kalinski's combined 7 games and 0 points.  What he doesn't acknowledge is that they have played a combined 71:51.  Ignoring the fact that Nodl has played in 4 games, Ross in 3, and Kalinski in 1 (that equals 8 for you math majors), they have averaged 10:38, 7:38, and 6:21 per game respectively.  That's not a lot of ice time.  And when you consider they're mostly playing together (or on the penalty kill, in Nodl's case), expectations need to be tempered.  But this isn't what I take issue with - they haven't scored, and I agree that's a problem. 

Rather, it's his next comment that shows his ignorance.  "Think that's bad? They've been worse defensively. Per 60 minutes on ice, Nodl averages out to be on the ice for 5.94 goals against. Ross (2.92) and David Laliberte (3.00) have been no better."    Here is where Seravalli fails to factor in a ton of details. 

First, the data he uses came straight from Behind the Net.  Notice how he uses David Laliberte instead of Jonathon Kalinski - like he did in the previous paragraph?  Yeah, that's because Gabe's data hasn't been updated in a couple of days.  Andreas Nodl's 5.94 GA/60 is the result of 2 GP.  Same for Ross's.  I think we all can agree that data for 2 games played is unreliable due to a small sample size.

Second, Nodl has been on the ice for 3 goals against in his 42:34 of ice time, one of which was scored while he was on the PK.  His plus/minus is a minus-1.  But Seravalli found one stat saying he's horrible defensively.  If that's so, how come Nodl gets 90 seconds of PK time per game?  That sounds to me like a coach incorrectly using his players.  Wait, this was a story defending the coach?  Oh... sorry.

Third, if Seravalli had spent the time looking around Gabe's site, he would have noticed - besides the fact that each player he's criticizing only had two games played - other stats contradicting his thesis.  Jared Ross (he of the 2.92 GA/60) has given up the fewest shots on net per 60 minutes of play - 5.8.  When he's on the ice, he's giving up less than 1 shot every 10 minutes!  Think about that.  If the Flyers had 18 guys playing as well as Jared Ross did in his two games, they would have lost 3-0, out-shooting their opponent 35-6.  Okay Frank, Ross is horrible defensively.  You're right.

Lastly, this is not a defense of Nodl, Ross, Kalinski, or Laliberte.  As I said, they haven't played enough to properly judge their play.  However, Seravalli was able to find out how many GA/60 those guys gave up, so how could he not see that they weren't the worst on the team?  Yes, Nodl's was THE worst on the team, but those right behind him, in order, are:  Darroll Powe, Danny Briere, and Jeff Carter.  After Carter comes Laliberte and Ross.  So, if he's going to say how bad Nodl, Ross, and Laliberte have been, why not throw a mention at Briere and Carter?  And why not mention that Laliberte is the only one of those 6 to have a higher GF/60 than GA/60?  Because he wanted to show he knows how to find unusual stats, without understanding them.

So, the lesson is, if you're going to slam players using new stats, you should understand them first.  And look at ALL of the stats to get some context, not just cherry pick out what you think allows you to speak with authority.

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by Broad Street Hockey.

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I used to read Seravalli’s articles on Examiner last season, when he was a college student. How this guy got a news beat covering a top NHL market team upon graduation is beyond me, but I think you’d get equal or better out of some hack from Bleacher Report.

For my daily hockey thoughts, visit http://ronnybrook.wordpress.com

by ronnybrook.blog on Nov 30, 2009 1:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Whoa whoa whoa whoa.

Please please edit this to tone it down.

I bitched him out in and email last week and linked him to Puck Prospectus. Here’s an excerpt of my email:

It’s just the latest in a long line of butchered stories about the flyers from all three beat reports (You, Carchidi, and Panaccio). But you happen to be new and I hoped you’d actually be the one who does the job well. The stuff that Murphy and Martino are doing on the Phils is phenomenal. They actually analyze advanced metrics and explain them. Have you once looked at the Flyers’ GVT numbers? I don’t recall you ever mentioning them.

Can we gently correct him, now that he’s moving in the right direction?

by MarioD on Nov 30, 2009 3:06 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

And I just found response emails by him. As you probably noticed from reading the article, he copied in my theory on Blair Betts being hurt before the San Jose game (i had included it in the email last week).

I’m not going to excerpt everything he wrote me, but let me just show this one paragraph:


Here is one of the sites I found that is pretty good… [behindthenet]
I have done a lot of research and I think you will see part of that in my story tomorrow (Monday). I also used the stuff you mentioned about Betts’ shoulder injury… good work by you.

He really didn’t know about this stuff, and is trying. And I agree he did not do the greatest job of using it. My point is just to show his poor use is a lack of understanding this data which is new to him.

And that he’s willing to accept help and advice in his work.

by MarioD on Nov 30, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

His poor use being the result of a lack of understanding the data is readily apparent. If he’s going to use the data, he needs to at least:

1) Correctly count the number of games played by those guys;
2) Acknowledge why Kalinski was mentioned in the previous paragraph, but not the next;
3) Notice that the data he is using is only from 2 games played;
4) And realize that, as a result of those small sample sizes, Jared Ross’ numbers are ridiculously inflated.

If you can get him to keep improving, good for all of us. But those two paragraphs are atrocious journalism. If he doesn’t understand something, he should not be writing about it for a major publication.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 30, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t disagree with any of your criticisms.

Here’s what I’m saying: If that is “atrocisous journalism” then what in the world would you call what Carchidi does?

Seravalli is trying, and he clearly jumped the gun on it and wrote about it before he understood it enough to write about it. It’s like reading any one of the essays I wrote for UCC Sales: I cited to cases and UCC rules, but taken as a whole it was essentially gibberish.

Extending the analogy, Carchidi took his blue book and spent an hour drawing a picture of a farm, and Pinacchio took a dump on the desk and walked out of the room.

by MarioD on Nov 30, 2009 5:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well… I rarely read Carchidi, and I hang around Panotch’s just long enough to know how bad his dump smelled that day (to continue the analogy.)

I agree that he’s at least trying, but this was a rather poor effort. If he had simply said that the GA/60 data he was using only took into account 2 games, I most likely would not have even been upset. But his story comes off as half-assed, just like the rest of those guys’ do. Branching out doesn’t negate the sloppy, basically.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 30, 2009 5:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Reading the article in a bubble, I totally agree.

I’m just saying, having provided the context of how it occurred… let me put it this way. I think if you asked him what “sample size” meant as an argument, he’d be totally flabbergasted.

PS: Any additions to the list below? You’ve posted stats I haven’t seen before, so you must have some different links than I do.

by MarioD on Nov 30, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

“I think if you asked him what ‘sample size’ meant as an argument, he’d be totally flabbergasted.”

That is not good news. If you are taking it upon yourself to be the wizard behind his curtain – which isn’t a bad thing – you have your work cut out for you.

As far as additions, I pretty much use Behindthenet, PP, and the NHL’s official site. I also use Frozen pool for line combinations. Other than that, I just email Gabe and Tom to get data I don’t have.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 30, 2009 6:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We’ve been corresponding throughout the day, and since I last posted that I feel more strongly its true. In summary, he explained that it isn’t a lack of effort on his part. Obviously I’m hesitant to put out anything he wrote me privately that could affect his job or whatever, but this excerpt should be okay:

The point that I wanted to get to you is that it isn’t laziness – or stubbornness to change – that is preventing it.
 
I also need to weigh whether all (or most) of my readers care about stats like these. You could be the exception and not the rule. But now that I know about them, there is no reason to not start working them in.

The sentence before that excerpt is kind of important for context, but I can’t post that. Basically, he just said that this is all really new stuff to the hockey world.

I did want to show what his opinion/argument is in summary, hence I kept that first sentence in the blockquote.

I don’t know how “behind the curtain” I am. But I directed him to all of these sites and the PP reference page. And explained that I don’t understand all of this stuff, but just start reading…

by MarioD on Nov 30, 2009 9:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Is it safe to assume the “it” in the first block-quoted sentence is new stats?

I’m at least glad he added that sentence you put in bold.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 30, 2009 9:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No. The antecedent of “it” in that sentence is somewhat unclear… he’s basically referring to my criticisms of his work.

The original email of this conversation was me being critical of the fact that he said timmonen missed the last five minutes of that game, when in fact it was the last 16, and how insanely easy it is to check at nhl.com. In conversation, I went on to say that it was the last in a long list of stories no one covered (the Betts thing, which he ran today; the two and a half minute JVR shift against Florida last month; etc etc.) and all of them required just ten seconds of research using game reports. In addition to the section above about GVT and comparison to Murph and Martino.

All of that, is the antecedent of “it”. Basically, the reason none of this stuff gets coverage in papers (and, in fairness, I inadvertently put him in the position of defending himself, Panaccio, and Carchidi) is a cultural thing (for lack of a better term). It isn’t a conscious decision to eschew these types of tidbits, just that they are so new that they just haven’t worked their way into hockey journalism yet. (That last sentence is a bit of deductive concluding on my part, to be clear.)

by MarioD on Nov 30, 2009 11:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

GVT is something you should definitely wait on. That will take a while to become popular, let alone explain. Especially with Player Contribution battling for a spot at the table.

Plus, Martino is fantastic.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 30, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Also, he asked me for a list of websites for stats. I gave him these:

Behindthenet
PuckProspectus
IceHockeyMetrics
NHLSCap
Playoffstatus.com
nhl.jzap.com/standings
insidehockey.com
insidehockey.com’s school of stats feature
And I told him to email Gabe Desjardins and see if he’ll pass along that data

by MarioD on Nov 30, 2009 4:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Site was up-to-date, but...

Every time a player’s name changes or a new guy gets called up, I have to add it to the database. So I was dragging a bit on some of these.

by Hawerchuk on Dec 1, 2009 12:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Oh, I meant no disrespect. Both of us accessed the data on Monday, and the data simply did not include Friday and Saturday’s games. It was the holiday weekend, they played back-to-back games, and you obviously just entered them into the database.

My point was that he used one set of data (7 games played) and followed it up with using another set of data (4 games played) without acknowledging the difference.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 1, 2009 1:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs


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