A statistical breakdown of the Flyers' fall
Timo Seppa at Puck Prospectus crunches the numbers and takes a look at the underachieving core of the Flyers offense. Most shockingly, he found that in the last 16 games, "the Flyers might have lit the lamp as many times if they dressed the Adirondack Phantoms’ lineup instead of Carter, Briere and company."
about 2 years ago
Travis Hughes
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Timo always does great work. A few things:
a) He misspelled my name; b) I wish he had noted that Emery played hurt for about 5 games, in which time he got absolutely shelled; and c) this sentence caught my eye:
With Randy Jones proving his worth in Los Angeles (3.9 GVT in 18 games with the Kings) upon being waived by the Flyers, Philadelphia has been left with no other defensemen worthy of NHL ice time.
“No other” was in reference to outside of Kimmo, Coburn, Pronger, and Carle. But if you look at the numbers he posted above that, OKT has a total GVT of 0.3, Syvret is at 0.0 (I don’t know how he gained 0.2 without playing, but that’s for him to explain), Bartulis is at 0.1, and Parent is at -0.4. But even Parent’s is skewed by a -0.7 offensive GVT, which the team isn’t looking for from him. In my opinion, Parent’s value should be judged solely in his defensive contributions (he only has 6 career assists, after all), which gives a more respectable 0.3.
Basically, I don’t disagree in theory – none of the other four Flyers defenseman have played particularly well – but to use the phrase not “worthy of NHL ice” goes a bit far in my opinion.
Either way, that post is what I wish mine looked like…
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 28, 2009 9:35 PM EST reply actions
Jones wasn’t doing well in Philly. He needed a change of scenery. Does he play on the top 2 lines for LA?
TAKE THE FALL, ACT HURT, GET INDIGNANT
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Dec 29, 2009 1:34 AM EST up reply actions
Probably.
Jones is an offensive defenseman. We tried to use him as a defensive defenseman. It didn’t work out.
LA is using him as he should be used.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
doesn’t matter Jones was the 5th D-Man on this team and at 3 million on the cap that is too much money for the 5th D-Man, Jones contract got him out of town I am certain the pressure from LA media is nothing compared to what he gets here, some guys just can’t hack in this town for whatever reason, when you sign a contract like that and don’t come to play to expections the critics are going to start asking questions Jones crumpled under his contract the expectations that came along with it I am starting to think Coburn is feeling the same thing except he is playing for a contract
Yeah, mikefive is right.
They’ve giving him the third most ice time among all defenseman, but they spread their time more evenly than the Flyers. So, even though Jones is getting the 3rd most in L.A., he’d still rank 5th in Philly. He’s also getting almost 2 minutes of power play time a game.
I could do a whole breakdown on him, but it’s not worth it. Just know that he’s got fancy offensive numbers, but the stats I always bore everyone with tell you that he’s neglecting the defensive side of his game. Which comes as no surprise.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 29, 2009 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
Don’t play defense? Only in your mind would a coach ever honestly think that.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 29, 2009 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
If memory serves, he was paired with Hatcher here during 2007-08. His giving the puck away wasn’t that much of an issue since Hatch was a stay-at-home guy – unless Hatch got caught flat-footed.
Pairing him with Derian Hatcher one year, then pairing him with the turnover-prone Andrew Alberts the next… the ugly truth came to the surface.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
GVT
Goals Versus Threshold is based on the formula developed by Tom Awad of Puck Prospectus. A zero GVT means that the player is replacement level i.e. you could pick up a similar player from the minors, waivers, etc. Only Tom knows the minutia of GVT, so I can’t really speak to why each score came out exactly as it did. We get weekly GVT runs from him. If you’re interested in reading more about GVT, Tom had a series of three articles on it over the summer – it’s in the PP archives. Tom runs weekly player power rankings based on GVT that appear both at ESPN Insider and at PP.
No problem Timo.
Tom helps me out a lot with his GVT – I’ve asked him for his data monthly, and this month he gave it to me without even having to ask. I’ll have a story on that up this week.
My comment regarding the GVT was more on the phrasing you used in regards to the Flyers 4-man, third-pairing rotation. I don’t disagree with what GVT shows – those four have been playing like replacement players – but I took exception to the “not worthy of NHL ice.” Had you instead said something similar to them not being any better than Sean Curry or Joey Mormina (both currently on the Phantoms), I would have agreed.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 29, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
Conventional stats, before and after
If it interests anyone, I’ve posted the Flyers’ conventional stats before and after November 24th over at my Ice Hockey Metrics blog, to correspond with the before and after GVTs.
A few individuals have been playing close to expectations––Mike Richards, Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux, Braydon Coburn, Daniel Carcillo––islands of competence in a sea of ineptitude.
Good call to whoever wrote that article a couple of days ago.
by philiafan14364 on Dec 29, 2009 11:49 AM EST reply actions
Emery and career backup Brian Boucher both dropped below replacement level before succumbing to injuries.
It mighta been the other way around with Ray Ray. He succumbed to injury, and then dropped to below replacement level.
by philiafan14364 on Dec 29, 2009 11:51 AM EST reply actions
Yeah, probably should have read the other comments before I posted that…
by philiafan14364 on Dec 29, 2009 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
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