That's more like it: Flyers rout Isles, 6-2
by Travis Hughes on Dec 8, 2009 10:18 PM EST
in 09-10 Game Recaps
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That's what I'm talkin' about, boys. The Philadelphia Flyers looked like a hockey team again tonight, beating the New York Islanders in convincing fashion on home ice. Six goals, three players, each with two a piece.
And you know what's refreshing? The guys who are supposed to lead this team actually did tonight. Mike Richards set the tone early, showing a ton of determination in the first period, resulting in a power play goal and a shorthanded one. In the second period, Jeff Carter took over, scoring back-to-back goals less than three minutes apart.
The Flyers coupled some bad luck with a few undisciplined plays in the latter part of the second period, giving the Isles several power play chances, including a five-on-three. John Tavares tried to get his team back into it, scoring two consecutive goals of his own to make it 4-2. But on another power play late in the period, Claude Giroux one-timed a beautiful Richards feed to shift the momentum back to the Flyers side.
Giroux would add one more tally off a beautiful pass from Scott Hartnell to round out the scoring.
Richards, Richards, Carter, Carter, Tavares, Tavares, Giroux, Giroux. Your goal scorers tonight.
With the win, the Flyers jump from 13th to 10th, one point out of the Eastern Conference playoff race with games in hand over the two teams ahead of them. They're also just five points back of 5th place. Things can change quickly id these guys can keep this kind of effort up. Note: Those numbers may be slightly different after other games go final. Still, the point stands -- the Flyers are much closer to playoff positioning then it seemed a night ago.
Much more, including the usual fare -- highlights, questions, comment of the night -- after the jump.
Some assorted thoughts...
- Richards is trying his best to put any doubts about his captaincy to rest. He put the team on his back tonight, especially early on, and as Peter Laviolette said post-game, "he played like a captain tonight."
- The power play looked faaaaantastic tonight. They moved the puck around beautifully, got plenty of chances, and were just generally awesome. Three for five. Very nice.
- A major critique of the Flyers over the last few weeks was that the role players, the bottom two lines, were the best players on the ice for the team. You can't win games when your best players aren't your best players. Well, things changed tonight. The top line of Hartnell-Richards-Giroux was unbelievable. They had a ton of chemistry, a ton of pressure on the puck, and a ton of energy. They seemed to make things happen every time they hit the ice, and it's no shock that they put up seven points.
- For those of you who were hoping the Flyers would trade for Martin Biron, did tonight change your mind? He was less than impressive, obviously, by allowing six goals.
- Not all of it was Biron, though. Remember those shots that didn't get through on Carey Price last night? Well, they got through tonight. 37 shots total on Biron. That's what happens when you're solid on the PP. The Isles still blocked 11, too.
- Johan Backlund was really good at opening the door on the bench tonight. Always aware, always ready, he never left his teammates waiting.
- Tavares cross-checked Scott Hartnell into Martin Biron about midway through the third period. Hartnell wound up with 4 PIM while Tavares wound up with zero.
- Similar to Sidney Crosby's first game in Philadelphia, a physical Flyers defenseman took a few teeth out of a division rival's highly touted first overall pick. Derian Hatcher knocked Crosby's tooth loose in his first Wachovia Center match, and tonight, Tavares lost a tooth or two thanks to hit along the boards from Chris Pronger. Lighthouse Hockey has something to say about this in their recap, calling him such words as "tool."
- No Flyers finished with a minus rating, while no Islanders finished with a plus rating.
- The Flyers have won 12 straight against the Islanders.
- Laviolette's first win as a Flyer.
- Tavares sucks.
Questions With Answers
- Power play. Can they turn it around? As already mentioned, mission accomplished.
- Goaltending. How does Boucher perform? Solid. Neither goal was his fault. 22 saves.
- Sixty minute effort, yay or nay? Yes. How awesome is that? Some might say there was a minor lapse in the second period when all those penalties came, but I'd argue that the penalties came as a result of hard work and pressure.
- Can they outwork the Islanders? All night long, baby.
Comment Of The Night
We win tonight.
>> doubleh, prior to the game
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Well,
That was definitely refreshing! Let’s hope they keep the ball rolling on Thursday. One game atta time. (:
by TaraFlyersss on Dec 8, 2009 10:33 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Pronger will definitely get a 2 game suspension if not more. Not only is he a repeat offender but Tavares is a “future star” so there you go. He deserves what he get’s though. I still don’t understand how a guy as powerful and good as he is still consistently makes cheap and somewhat dirty hits? At this point he is about as dirty as Briere but much much bigger. Personally I can’t stand Briere. I feel like he has a little man complex and so he tries to make up for it by being cheap.
As for Hartnell’s 4 PIM’s, it was an absolute disgrace. Right after it happened I turned to my wife and said, Hartnell clearly tried to stop once he got to within an inch of Biron. Heck, he barely made contact. It wasn’t until Tavares cross checked him…twice that he finally took the goalie down. All the while i knew Hartnell would get at least 2 and Tavares nothing. It’s sad when something so transparent like that happens. I don’t want to believe that the league is biased against the Flyers but things like that don’t exactly squash those feelings.
There is a great article in the December 7th issue of Sport Illustrated about Pronger (unfortunately it is the one with Derek Jeter on the front). It talks about Pronger’s “mystique” as one of the dirtiest players in the NHL. In the article he says;
“You might spear a guy in the face, fight a guy, elbow a guy, slash a guy or just make a clean bodycheck. . . If they don’t know what I’m going to do, I hold the trump card.”
“They’re nervous Nellies. Maybe they’ll move the puck a little too soon because they don’t want to get slashed or speared again. I get people complaining in SI that I’m the dirtiest player in hockey…and people say, ‘I can’t believe you like that.’ I tell ‘em, ’Why wouldn’t I?’ Means I’m doing my job.”I guess Pronger provides a whole new view of what is “cheap” or “dirty” in hockey. He is right to an extent, there is a reason why he is one of the best NHL defensemen during the last decade. On top of his incredible skill, players hate having to play against him because he has no qualms about leaving a branding across your arm with a slash or knocking your tooth out with a check.
I guess, as Flyers fans, we can’t really complain about other teams doing dirty or taking cheap shots on our guys considering we have Pronger on the blueline, Mr “Jump-the-Gun” Carcillo, Hartnell and even Briere. Are the Flyers the dirtiest team in hockey? (Not that I’m complaining haha)
by Mitchell Green on Dec 9, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
That settles it...
… I’m bad luck. I had a commitment tonight and had to leave home right after we made it 2-0. I missed the rest of the game. Oh well. I have commitments every Tuesday this month so at least that means we’ll beat Pittsburgh next week. And hey, I may be in the studio on Thursday night so we’ll beat Ottawa as well!
Good to hear that Carter and Giroux got back on track. They needed it.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
Sign Man’s awesome. If there’s been one constant throughout the past few decades of Flyers hockey, it’s that guy.
Seriously. Have you seen the folder he brings with him? It’s ridiculous. He’s also a really nice guy.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 9, 2009 8:47 AM EST up reply actions
Finally a win. Good game all around what was everyone’s thoughts on the penalty spree in the second period? Some of them looked pretty weak to me. Pronger boarding and Lappy’s charge in particular. The 4 minutes to Hartnell after Tavares crosschecks him twice was really bad as well. If that was Carcillo he would have gotten at least 8 minutes, 4 for Crosschecking, 2 for Roughing, and 2 for Goalie Interference even though it was his only goalie I don’t think the refs would care.
For those of you who were hoping the Flyers would trade for Martin Biron, did tonight change your mind?
Powerplay redeflection from two feet away
Breakaway
Powerplay when Jeff Carter is left alone with the puck along the red line and hits the corner from a sharp angle.
Three saves in two seconds before the third rebound finally goes in.
Powerplay cross-slot one-timer
Two-on-One cross-crease pass backdoor goal
Third goal is the only one Biron has any semblance of a chance on. He could’ve had that one, but given the amount of time Carter had, Biron was going to open up somewhere and Carter hit the hole. Had it been a bang-bang pass/shot from Carter, I’d say its a bad goal. But Biron can’t hold that position for as long as Carter had.
I will be surprised if Pronger isn’t suspended. That’s an atrocious hit. He’s up against the wall, bit he’s staring at his back the entire way.
It’s a nice win, but they still fell apart in the second period, causing Laviolette to call a timeout and ream the team out with five minutes left. That’s not acceptable, and against a good team that’s not a luxury they can afford.
Old habits die hard.
They went through these stretches of inconsistency with Stevens for over two years. Laviolette isn’t going to fix it all in three games. Since I didn’t see most of the game, I’m assuming he called time out after the Islanders made it 4-2? If that’s the case, then that’s a smart move. Stop and take a breather before things really get hairy. Hopefully the players get the message now so that when they are playing good teams, Laviolette won’t have to call time out and get everyone settled.
Is there video of the hit anywhere? Was Tavares injured, other than losing his tooth? If he doesn’t miss any playing time then I’d be surprised if there were a suspension – although Pronger does have a reputation.
According to Yahoo’s box score, only Jack Hillen and Kyle Okposo played more than Tavares tonight, so I doubt Tavares was really hurt. If he were, the coach likely would have pulled him once the Flyers made it 6-2.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
it would be nice if you would defend Emery that way MarioD’s bias continues, I am sure Marty could have came out of the net more on that breakaway you blamed Emery for the breakaway goals he gave up in the beginning of the year screaming about coming out of the net and I never one heard you defend a goal Emery gave up because it was a PP goal. T
Carter’s 1st goal was a bad goal one on one with the shooter at a bad angle all you have to do is hug the post. Carter beat him between under arm not top shelf over the corner.
Old habits die after you change the makeup of the team and get players who can play consistently.
Tavares was on the ice, a trainer came out, and all that but didn’t miss more than a shift or two if anything.
Yeah, the timeout was after the 2nd goal. It was mainly about the fact that they were playing like assholes again and taking discipline penalties. Too small a sample size, but this whole attack thing seems to be bringing out the tripping and elbowing in these players.
The Sheriff
Anyone else feel a suspension coming for Pronger?
Tavares flopped on that play questionable call at best no chance they suspend Pronger especially if there isn’t any injury. Not every Boarding call gets a suspension. Welcome to the league kid don’t turn your back on number 20.
Tim Panaccio via Twitter : 4-1 games as Tavares gets 5-on-3 power play and then on the next shift Pronger boards him. close call. If Tavares doesn’t lay out, no call
Tavares flop? What game were you watching? Tavares had passed the puck like a full two seconds before Pronger came idling up along the boards from behind him and then just forearmed him in the middle of the back right into the glass. It’s in line with Pronger’s style of play, cheap shot, sending a message, blah blah blah. Uncalled for though. A good case could be made for a couple game suspension, given Pronger’s history.
AYHSMLN
absolutely right. totally unnecessary for pronger to even touch him, and he got 2 minutes for it. if he gets suspended for a simple 2 minute infraction, especially one where taveras clearly embellished the hit (he was back out there for almost the entire power play), then i’m pretty sure i’ll have lost all of the very little respect that i had left for this sport. briere gets two games for hitting a guy maybe two seconds after he fires puck, carcillo gets four for throwing a punch a split second too soon (because if he waits around, then bradley gets the chance to openly clock him on the button), and now talk of pronger getting two games for an albeit unnecessary small shouldering of a guy into the boards. i mean it’s clear that the NHL is becoming more of a woman’s league every year, but this is just getting ridiculous.
Hopefully Tollefsen can stay healthy for two games if that’s the case.
Since Tavares wasn’t injured and won’t miss any time, is Pronger’s reputation enough to warrant a suspension? Or was the hit really that bad?
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
Does getting a tooth knocked out count as injury?
Not sure if the NHL considers that an injury. Getting teeth knocked out isn’t fun but he definitely didn’t miss any playing time. He acted like he got shot, ala Crosby.
Tavares sucks.
I see my suggestion to start the “Tavares Sucks” campaign has been started. Good to hear.
No!
You don’t want another talented player from a divisional rival to light us up.
Besides, it’s best to save all our vitriol for Crosby anyway.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
We're Philly
there’s enough vitriol to go around
I agree with the commentators
Giroux’s goals was pretty. TWO cross-ice passes to set up a goal? Amazing to see, but I don’t think the passing lanes would be that open against most teams.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
Mario, are you even a Flyer fan? You’re really sad if you are. I feel bad for you to have to watch a team that you cheer for just to get irritated at a 5 minute stretch of the game in a blowout win! Just in case you missed it. We won. It wasn’t perfect, but the final score says 6-2. That’s a win with our 2 top guns getting goals that they are suppose to. Our defense playing mostly good and Giroux finally showing some of the things that made Flyers fans hungry for the new season after the first round playoffs last season.
Biron was not that good last night. The NHL on the Fly guys even called him out. They said that he was out of position a lot, gave up huge rebounds and just generally didn’t have a big compete level. That sounds familiar!
Hey, I’m not ready to say this team has turned a corner and is perfect, but at least for one game, with exception of some undisciplined stuff at the end of the second, they played like they are suppose to given the immense talent that these guys have.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Dec 9, 2009 10:22 AM EST reply actions
I am a huge Flyers fan. As I said to someone else yesterday, read some of the stuff I posted in July. Most of my friends would say I’m a homer for the Flyers.
But I’m not blind and one win against a bad team isn’t going to make me ignore the very deep flaws this team has.
I still feel sorry for you. I’m not blind either, as I stated, I’m not saying this team turned the corner, but I’m at least willing to enjoy the fact that finally some of the guys who are suppose to have stepped up did.
The only thing I read from you is whining and moaning about somebody. I agree with you on most everything that you’ve said:
1. JVR should have spent more time in the minors
2. This team misses a good faceoff guy
3. Holmgren f’d up the Randy Jones deal
4. Syvret should never have seen the ice
5. Stevens firing wasn’t probably the best move etc. etc.
but get over it dude, we get it. I guess if it makes you feel superior or great that you ragging on the Flyers is confirmed, then congratulations. Personally, I come here for objective analysis, not constant negativity. It’s gets old pretty quickly.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Dec 9, 2009 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
That’s just a false perception.
The longest running argument I’ve had on here was DEFENDING Braydon Coburn. I’ve made plenty of posts about the adjustments Emery had made to his game. I’ve made plenty of posts defending Riley Cote, Dan Carcillo, Danny Briere, John Stevens was still the coach when I was praising him.
If Holmgren wasn’t fucking up everything he did, I wouldn’t be critical. But this is a bad team that just lost 8 of 10 games or whatever… I’m not going to get excited about a win against the Islanders at home when the team still made a lot of stupid mistakes.
I don’t see any current long standing members here rushing to support you.
I’m not asking you to get excited over one win, I’m just saying you’re pretty negative all the time and for the team that you allegedly love, it has to be hard to hate them so much, but claim you cheer for them.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Dec 9, 2009 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
Honestly, I’m not cheering for them. I’m like the people who go to games with a paper bag over their head. If they had their draft picks, I’d want them to lose right now.
I want something to happen that causes the changes needed to fix this team. That means, in the end, trading players. Back when they were 11-5 or whatever I could see that they needed to make changes. They still haven’t completed a single transaction. If Holmgren won’t make the moves, then he needs to go.
But they still have the wrong team to play the way they want to play.
I’m completely understand what you’re saying, because for years I’ve critcized the organization for ignoring the goalie situation and I still do and I honestly believe that even if this current team makes the playoffs, they are one and done with the guys they have now in net.
However, I still cheer for this team, get excited when they win etc. When they play bad, I’m upset, but I hardly cheer for my team to lose. That’s pretty fair weather if you ask me. I’m not asking for you to rah-rah everything, I’m just pointing out that your blind hate of Holmgren act gets old pretty quick. How do you know that Holmgren won’t make the moves vs. can’t make the moves? Are you in his office everyday?
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Dec 9, 2009 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
Winning only ensures that they won’t fix these problems. I don’t want the franchise to fail. I want the Flyers to win a Stanley Cup. But they can’t. So I’m not going to throw myself into rooting for them to be eliminated in one round. Or have a really exciting playoff race and just miss that eighth spot.
For this franchise to do well, they need to recognize and address the problems they have. They haven’t done that. They only way that will happen is if they continue to lose.
Again, its the analogy to the Penguins last year. They changed coaches, went from a defensive to offensive system which better suited their personell, and turned over 1/4 of the roster in order to turn around their season.
The Flyers, and most of the people on this board, have this deluded idea that all the Flyers need is time to get used to Laviolette’s formations. And that’s a recipe for continued disaster.
I agree, that a lot of people (fans) have deluded opinions on how good the team is, but that doesn’t stop most people from cheering for the team they love.
The fact is that only 1 team is going to win the Stanley Cup per season. Do I think it will be the Flyers, nope, but that doesn’t stop me from hoping they have success on the ice every night.
I think Holmgren is well aware of the weakness of this team, it doesn’t mean he has it completely in his power to fix things. I liken it to my fantasy team. I have a glaring need for a capable center, there is nothing decent on waivers. When I ask other owners for a trade they want my blue chip wingers/goalies. I recognize my weakness, but I’m not willing to create weakness somewhere else to shore up my weakness at center. So I make a run at it with some scrub off the wire. While this is a pretty simplistic analogy, it does translate into real world.
Yeah, I don’t always like the moves made, I think there have been plenty of f’d up things Holmgren has done, including not having a clue on earth how to manage the cap. However, it doesn’t mean I cheer for the team not to have success just so I can be “right”.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Dec 9, 2009 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
However, it doesn’t mean I cheer for the team not to have success just so I can be "right".
Again, this is just terribly wrong.
I made very clear the fact that I want them to fail SO THEY WILL ACTUALLY ADDRESS THEIR WEAKNESSES.
Besides, I’m long past being proven right. If things continue this way, they’ll be so bad that even my expectations were optimistic and I’d be moving towards being proven wrong.
You can believe that Holmgren just can’t accomplish anything, but I look back at the fact that he had the whole offseason to address his four concerns:
1) Faceoffs
2) Salary Cap Cushion
3) Veteran Presence
4) (I forget the fourth now…)
And he did a horrendous job of addressing those self-identified issues. So why would you have any more faith in his ability to address the Flyers problems now?
Faceoffs don’t make that big of a difference in a game and Betts was signed to address the faceoff issue, can’t fault Homer than Betts got hurt twice. Pitts is 16th in the league in faceoffs and the difference between the top team SJS and worst team CGY is 11% the Flames yet the Flames are 7th in the league in pts. Stop with Faceoffs.
Also about these trades suggest something that would certainly bring on interesting conversion. You want to trade Carter or whoever who would you want back in return that is reasonable and will fit in our cap.
Im going to break my policy of ignoring you just to point out that Betts was basically guaranteed to suffer those injuries based on his history. So you can fault Holmgren for signing a guy who has slim to no chance of staying “healthy”.
He wears a brace to restrain his arm from going over his head. Holmgren decided that sounded like a healthy player?
Also, whoever the NHL on the Fly guys are, are wrong. He made just every save he could be expected to make with the exception of the first Carter goal.
And I disagree, they were dead on and even a lot of Islanders fans are complaining about Biron today as well. He sits back too far in the net, he gives up huge, juice rebounds and he’s absolutely brutal on the PK.
I’m sorry if you loved Biron. I liked the guy too, but he’s a mediocre goalie, just like the two we currently have that wanted to be paid like a great number 1.
When he came to the realization that perhaps he overvalued himself and signed with the Islanders, they got themselves a decent tandem goalie for the money.
I’m not Paul Holmgren, but if Biron had come to him after last season and said, “hey, I’ll play for 1.5MM” or whatever he’s getting paid by the Isles, I’m thinking Holmgren might have considered it.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Dec 9, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
I didn’t see any juicy rebounds. I saw rebounds dropped right at his feet (like the fourth goal).
Watch the game again. He had a lot of rebounds that he immediately covered up. He didn’t kick rebounds around the ice.
Of the six goals, only one (?) of them came after a rebound during the same offensive attack. (I can’t remember how the fifth goal happened).
Fifth goal was the Giroux goal into the open net when Richards faked the shot then slid it back through the slot.
The rebound comment was specifically about last night, it’s just general stuff I’m reading from Islanders fans which reminded me a lot of what I read from a lot of Flyers fans and my own complaints last season.
Regardless of whether you want to blame him for 1 or for 6 goals last night, he just isn’t that great a goalie. At 1.5MM he’s adequate and he’s not very good at all on the PK, which unfortunately, in today’s NHL is pretty important.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Dec 9, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
Fair enough. I thought you meant last night specifically. Because rebounds were not his mistake last night.
Biron’s strength is squaring up to and swallowing up the shot. Going post to post is not his strength. Hence, he’s weaker on the PK when the other team is able to more freely move the puck. Contrast this with Emery, who struggled to cut down angles, but goes post to post extremely well.
If you’re playing good defense (clogging those cross-ice passing lanes) Biron is going to play very well. In my opinion, I’d rather have the guy (Biron) I know how to help, than the guy who I can’t help (Emery).
Again, its all a matter of utilizing the talents of your respective players. Which the Flyers, as an organization, haven’t been doing well.
Biron (nor Emery for that matter) are not the answer. We’re arguing the merits of one mediocre goalie vs. another.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Dec 9, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
Thats where we differ.
I was all on board the Emery deal because I thought the Flyers were going to play like the Red Wings. I think goaltender salaries are inflated. I think with all of the rule changes, that the NHL has taken the game more and more away from the control of goaltenders. I think defensemen are undervalued.
I believe that the most cost-effective use of cap money is to get a serviceable goaltender and surround him with strong defense.
But if Paul Holmgren wanted (in my opinion, mistakenly) to play this offense that they are instilling now, why the fuck did he sign Ray Emery? You can’t have a mediocre goaltender if you’re going to be allowing odd man rushes all night long.
On one hand I agree with you… that goalies are overvalued and that you can win with a decent goalie (I think Emery, when he’s not hurt, and Boucher recently, qualify) and a very strong defense, but if you look at recent cup winners, the majority of them have had top notch goalies, or at least one that stands on his head in the playoffs.
You point to the Red Wings, do you consider Osgood mediocre? Honestly, I never thought he was that great, but he did make a lot of tough saves when he needed to. And obviously they had great D, and a defensive system, to back him up.
As far as a more attacking system not working because of the Flyers’ weakness in goal… I’m not sure I agree there. You could put the best goalie in the league in the net and if you have a lot of odd man rushes against, you’re going to have a lot of goals against. It’s basically a gamble that you’re going to score more, by being aggressive with the D, than you’re going to give up. I can understand not thinking that is a wise gamble with the Flyers’ lineup, but to me, I’m holding out judgment until the new coach has a little more time with the team.
Whatever happens, it will probably not be boring.
I think Osgood is a terrible goaltender. The Red Wings over the last few years have tried to replace him two or three different times.
There are going to be a lot off goals against, no matter what. I agree. But that system shifts more control back to the goaltender, because he’s alone on an island.
One win against a sickly team does not a turnaournd make...
While it was a good game for the Flyers, I am waiting to see if the 60-minute (or 50-minute if you feel the second period had a lapse) effort repeats itself against Ottawa. And really, the Islanders aren’t much of a measuring stick.
That said, Richards played well and Carter even had a winning faceoff percentage! Imagine how good this team could be once Powe and Betts are back and the AHL crew goes home (although Laliberte still looks pretty darn good out there).
If Pronger gets suspended, as I suppose he should since it was away from the play, I actually see Syvret getting the call-up over Tolly – only because of the poor play by Coburn recently. That way you could pair Timonen with Parent (who played well together in the past), Coburn with Carle (possibly a defensive liability, but we’ll see), and Bartulis with Syvret (a classic thrid pairing, with an offensive player and a defensive one).
Syvret is in Adirondack while Tollefsen has been a healthy scratch for… awhile.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 9, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Slightly on the topic of offense v. defense
I know the argument is personnel v. system, but here’s just a look at how “defense wins championships” is a bit of a misnomer:
From Brodeur is a Fraud
If the better overall team (based on season winning percentage) wins 61% of the time, how does the better offensive team do? Answer: The team with more goals scored has actually done even better, winning 37 of the last 60 series (62%). That’s a much better success rate than the team with fewer goals allowed, which has won just 27 series (45%).
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
Post lockout.
First of all, I’ll give the small sample size warning to everything that I’m about to post. Past results do not guarantee future performance and so on. I tend to believe the numbers show a real effect since regular season results have generally fallen in line, but I’m going to be focusing on playoff results only which means that the sample is limited to 60 playoff series over the last 4 seasons.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 9, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
Hence, “Defense wins championships” is a bit of a misnomer.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 9, 2009 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
interesting...
Based on these results it looks like the NHL got what they were after with the post lockout changes. Strong offense is rewarded more than strong defense.
Also backs up the earlier mentioned idea that the goalie is not as important as he used to be.
I don’t really get this. It seems like too superficial a view to really determine anything meaningful.
For instance, look at last season’s division winners:
Boston 1st GA, 2nd GF
New Jersey 4th GA, 15th GF
Washington 20th GA, 3rd GF
San Jose 3rd GA, 7th GF
Detroit 19th GA, 1st GF
Vancouver 7th GA, 14th GF
Thats pretty all over the map, there.
Not to mention, better teams will always score more goals because of EN goals, hence skewing the fundamentals of the system.
“Defense wins Championships” is a silly cliche. Its doing one side of the puck exceptionally well, and the other side well, that wins Championships.
And its easier to have scorers play defense than it is to have defenders score.
Looking at what worked in the playoffs, Washington and Detroit better GF teams were in the final four with Pitt 6th and CHI 5th. So up the top 4 teams last year the one thing that they had in common was betting in the top of goal scoring, even though their GA was all over the place.
Our roster is better suited to score than to check. 5 on 5 a strong forecheck is going to serves as our defense to keep the puck out of our zone if our damn PK would start playing and our players so more discipline the GA would go down.
“That’s pretty all over the map, there.”
Exactly. Chicago gave up fewer goals in the regular season than Detroit, but they lost. Detroit scored more goals than Chicago during the season, and they were the better team in the regular season, yet Chicago had more EN goals on the year.
EN goals barely skew the scales. The team with the most EN goals in the league had those goals equal 6% of their yearly total. EN goals accounted for a mere 3% of Detroit’s total, and they finished atop the league in goals for.
The average NHL team had their EN goals for account for 3.19% of their goal total. The ten best teams in terms of points had their EN goals account for 3.96% of their total.
Subtracting every team in the league’s EN goals from their total goals scored, the order remained the same except for St. Louis, who went from one fewer GF to one more GF than Edmonton.
The 27th worst team in the league points wise – LA – had just as many EN goals as the best team in the league – Detroit.
Basically, EN goals don’t skew it at all.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 9, 2009 6:17 PM EST up reply actions
This whole thing is just too simple. Look at what PP did yesterday: http://puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=385
Thats a statistical analysis. Brodeur is a Fraud just compiled some numbers. Just look at the BaF comment section:
Wouldn’t a better metric to look at me GF/GA (ratio) in the regular season? Comparing offense ranking to defense ranking is deceptive. If a team that is Offense/Defense 1/2 plays a team that is O/D 30/1 you would of course expect the first team to win. But you would expect them to win because of their balance not just because of the strength of their offense.
As I see it the regular season is stacked to reward the defensive minded clubs, as merely getting to overtime is a successful night’s work, and the dice roll of 4v4 OT and the shootout makes the average regulation tie worth 1.5 points. So if the score is tied in the third, playing to win is actually a loser strategy and protecting the tie is the name of the game. Indeed, from a probabilistic perspective a game-tying goal has three times the value of a game-winning goal! So if a game is already tied that has value to both teams. Such has competition been compromised in Gary Bettman’s NHL.
I did a detailed study after the 2007-08 season in which I destermined that the top 15 defensive teams in the NHL all made the playoffs!!! Don’t think it’s been quite that extreme before or since, but a good defensive posture is the first plank of artificial parity.
I looked up the average rank of playoff teams in their own conference for each of the past 4 seasons:
Eastern Conference:
2005-06: 5.9 GF, 4.9 GA
2006-07: 6.1 GF, 4.9 GA
2007-08: 7.5 GF, 5.1 GA
2008-09: 6.4 GF, 6.0 GA
Western Conference:
2005-06: 5.4 GF, 5.4 GA
2006-07: 5.8 GF, 4.5 GA
2007-08: 7.1 GF, 5.4 GA
2008-09: 4.9 GF, 6.3 GA
There has been a consistent edge for the defensive teams in the Eastern Conference. In the West it has been closer, and last year the scales were tipped in favour of offence.
But he didn’t look at regular season statistics. Those numbers you just quoted were an average ranking of who got into the playoffs, not what they did once they got there.
BiaF looked at playoff matchups: When two teams face each other in the playoffs, what’s a better predictor of who will win the series? Regular season winning percentage, goals for, or goals against? The team who score more goals during the regular season won 62% of the time; the team who allowed fewer goals against won 45% of the time; and the team with the higher winning percentage in the regular season won 61% of the time.
You can take any number of things from it. But what I take out of it is that the better team was probably also better at scoring. Not necessarily because they were better at scoring, but that if you can score in the regular season, you can score in the playoffs.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 9, 2009 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
But he didn’t look at regular season statistics.
Yes, and that’s just one flaw with the numbers he posted. That it doesn’t account for regular season success.
The predictability of win % leader (62%) compared to GF leader (63%) is statistically insignificant. It must be only a one series difference since the denominator is 60, which means every series was worth 1.6%.
Those numbers prove that if you’re ONLY going to be good at one thing, that thing should be offense. In other words, it explains why the Rangers got knocked out in the first round last season. A team only good at defense (NYR) lost to a team only good at offense (WAS).
But the key to success in the playoffs is being good at BOTH aspects of play. And those numbers in no way suggest that a successful team should be better at offense or defense, as long as you are good at both.
He wasn’t looking at who got into the playoffs, or how you get into the playoffs, or what’s the best way to have regular season success. So, not analyzing the regular season isn’t a flaw at all. It’s a limited inquiry, which he acknowledges right off the bat. I’m not even going to try to explain since you can’t even get past what he’s looking at without criticizing it.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 9, 2009 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
He made a limited inquiry, on purely the surface level, with a super tiny sample size, that proved something different than what you’re claiming it proves.
It is in no way dispositive of the theory “Defense wins Championships”. It merely disproves the notion, which no one has, that “you can win a championship with only defense”.
Look at the Flyers Pens series last year. After you adjust for shootouts as he did, these are the numbers:
Flyers 260 GF, 232 GA
Pens 258GF, 233 GA
What in the world does that series prove?
that all the statistical analysis in the world doesn’t necessarily correlate to anything; that sometimes, no matter how evenly matched two teams are, marc-andre fleury can stand on his head six or seven times and completely change the outcome of a series- numbers be damned.
that all the statistical analysis in the world doesn’t necessarily correlate to anything; that sometimes, no matter how evenly matched two teams are, marc-andre fleury can stand on his head six or seven times and completely change the outcome of a series- numbers be damned.
Or any goalie, for that matter.
Stats are a great way to look at things and to measure team and individual player strengths. But I think that hockey is still a sport of “intangibles” once the playoffs roll around.
The Flyers and Pens were very evenly matched last year, and the Flyers were arguably the better team in the series. Did they win? No. Why? You can point to any number of things, but the largest factors in that series were Marc-Andre Fleury and Evgeni Malkin.
Two years ago, the Canadiens outplayed the Flyers in every way, shape, and form for 5 games. But the Flyers won the series. Why? Again, you can point to any number of things, but the largest factors in that series were Martin Biron and RJ Umberger. I don;t think statistical analysis could have predicted Umberger scoring 8 goals in that series, for example.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
Am I the only one who noticed Kalinski played like a monster last night? He did some great work in the corners and had a couple solid scoring chances.
Yes he did nice to see the 4th line get a regular shift probably would have got near 10 minutes of ice time if there wasn’t a parade to the box in the 2nd period. With the more up tempo system our guys are going to need longer breaks to keep energy level up I wasn’t fond of Stevens never use the 4th line system.
The aggressive system has been great at helping the D out especially in the 1st period 5 shots allowed to the Islanders and only 1 shot allowed to MTL. 24 shots allowed total in the game only 12 shots allowed total to the Canadians. I agree that there will be some 3 on 2 and maybe a couple of 2 on 1 but overall the shots will be down under Lavy. Having good D-Man to defend those odd man rushes is going to be key, Pronger and Timmo are really good on those breakdowns. My only hope is that the new system will in theory got down on the penalties and generate more power plays. So far that has not been the case as many of the Flyers penalties were undisciplined behind the play stuff and in the neutral or offensive zones. I think that would be a recipe for success.
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