Flyers will play supporting role in race for eighth

by Travis Hughes on Apr 3, 2009 10:39 AM EDT in Commentary

With the regular season coming to a close in the next week or so, the playoff races in the Eastern Conference are hotter than they've been all season. There's a giant cluster of teams now fighting for the 4th seed and home ice advantage, but even more desperate are the teams fighting for the right to even play past next weekend.

The Montreal Canadiens have been playing much better hockey of late. Carey Price, who looked shaky over the last month or so, has begun to play better. Alexei Kovalev is playing like he actually wants to earn his paycheck. And because of it, the Habs have put a little bit of distance between themselves and that eighth spot.

They sit just one point ahead of the New York Rangers for the eighth seed in the East, but with a game in hand, they control their own destiny. The real fight for the eighth seed will come down to the Rangers and the Florida Panthers. The Rangers, through 78 games, have 89 points and the current hold on the eight spot. Florida, through 77 games, has 87 points. Who wants it more, guys?

The unseen story here is the Flyers role in all of this. Sure, they've yet to clinch a playoff spot themselves, but barring a ridiculous collapse, they've just about sealed up a spot at least higher than seventh. Mirtle's very accurate playoff push rankings say the Flyers need to go 0-5-1 the rest of the way to clinch. I think they can manage.

But when you look at the Flyers schedule, there are three games that stand out: a final weekend home-and-home with the Rangers, and a visit from the Panthers to South Philly on Tuesday. With the standings as close as they are, these three games could go a long way to determining who wins that eighth seed.

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This is incorrect.

I see what Mirtle is doing here, but these updates are based on his prior convictions and conjecture. Carolina did not clinch anything, and the Flyers need to do a hell of a lot better than 0-5-1 if they hope to get in. Technically, the Rangers and Panthers can finish with 97 points each, and Pittsburgh and Montreal aren’t going to lose out. So we need wins badly.

If the Flyers win one more game, then Buffalo cannot catch us but Florida still can. If we win our next 2 games, we can clinch if Florida loses to Pittsburgh on Sunday (they ain’t losing to Atlanta, at home, tonight.) If we win our next 3, we’re in no matter what. That’s the way we have to look at this.

I respect Mirtle as a writer and I’m not trying to take anything away from what he’s done here. However, as a jaded Philly sports fan, I cannot help but echo Homer’s sentiment: We should not feel comfortable at all until we have that letter next to our name in the standings.

We’ve got two big games this weekend. Let’s Go Flyers!

by mikefive on Apr 3, 2009 5:03 PM EDT reply actions

As it turned out, the Flyers only needed to go 1-5-0 to clinch a spot at this point. That would have given them 94 points. They potentially could have made it by going 0-5-1 depending on how the tiebreakers went.

My list, as always, is about projecting the cutoff, so obviously some teams can pass others. It’s just very unlikely.

by James Mirtle on Apr 23, 2009 3:55 AM EDT up reply actions