Grading the 2009 Flyers: Joffrey Lupul

but I would argue he has progressed this year. His defense has gotten markedly better — it was so far behind that that’s not too difficult, but he’s still not even close to the one-dimensional player he used to be. Additionally, I’m sure you’re exaggerating a bit about Powe, but I think the fact that teams were forced to account for Lupul helped Carter & Hartnell. It’s not like he was invisible out there. That line was best when Lupul was a part of it.

I see and agree with your points that we are left wanting more, but between seeing him play pretty darn well against the Pens, develop his cutting-through-the-D abilities, and improve his D to the point where I’d call it “passable” although not “good,” all the while almost mirroring Hartnell’s point production for $1.1m less and at a year younger, I think his year was all around a success.

Does he have a ways to go??? Abso-freakin-lutely. His D, for a guy with that athletic and skating ability, should be no different than Carter or Gagne or even Giroux’s. Will it ever get there? Maybe in half a decade. I’m not holding my breath for it. It’s not a penalty killer’s D, but I think he could become someone who contributes defensively as soon as this year.

His offense, while very good, could become awesome. He has the tools you need to put up 40 goals, and that just doesn’t come around very often. I haven’t seen any reports questioning his attitude or makeup or work ethic — in fact, all I’ve seen is that he is a hard worker that people like. If some report exists to the contrary, I would love to see it and would change my opinion. To me, when you have all the tools and work ethic and a coaching staff that works well with forwards, there’s really there’s nothing preventing you from fulfilling your potential. The guy is young. We’ve been spoiled by Carter & Richards being so damn good at such a young age — we need to remember that when all is said and done, those two could be in HOF conversations if they stay healthy and productive. Who knows, Giroux has that talent too. Gagne is another exception that got good young.

For comparison’s sake, Martin St. Louis (not a really comparable player, I know, but bear with me) had 40 points in 78 games as a 25-26 year old. His next year, he was on pace for ~50 points, but played in 53 games. The year after that (age 27-28) he broke out for 33 goals and 70 points. Is that obtainable for Joffrey in his first prime year? Absolutely.

A more similar player? Shane Doan. His age 25 season (2001-2002) produced 20 goals and 29 assists. He’s a similar size to Lupul, has an inch and 10 pounds on him so a bit bigger and more of a power forward than a sniper, but still on the whole pretty similar. He exploded when he was 27 for 68 points in 79 games (27 goals, 41 assists). Hasn’t really looked back.

If we’re basically looking for a guy that can put up 65 points annually, Lupul is a guy like that. His defense is progressing, even if it’ll never be elite. His offensive potential is probably greater than that of Doan’s. He’s 26 in Sept. Let’s wait until he’s in his prime before we start saying he isn’t progressing enough. Maybe he’ll get 60 points in 2009-2010 a la Hartnell this year, with worse defense, but he’ll also take fewer silly penalties.

Another interesting statistic — in Joffrey’s 2005-2006 season with Anaheim, when he notched 28 goals and 25 assists, he had 12 PPG and 11 PPA, with 2 SHGs. His numbers this year were 6 PPGs, 9 PPAs, and 0 SHGs. His role on the PP is diminished, but in the same breath he’s putting up more even strength goals. The most interesting statistic?

In 2005-2006 he shot the puck 296 times and netted it 9.5% of the time. He then spent an awful year in EDM, but his % stayed ~ the same at 9.3%. His first year with the Flyers, he posted 176 shots and 11.4% of them went in, and this year he had 12.9% of his 194 shots go in. If he had posted the same # of shots as Carter this year (342), the stats predict he would have put about 44 of them into the net. It’s not a fluke, lots of players get more accurate the older they get, and I doubt Lupul is an exception.

So if you think that A) shooting the puck is a skill (which I do), and B) the % of shots you score on is a skill (also, I think, inarguable), then you see that Lupul is both getting more accurate and on the whole shooting more (excluding that aberration of an ANH year when he was both inaccurate and shot almost 300 times). If you don’t want to exclude the ANH year, then you see that he has the ability to shoot the puck 300 times a year and that with his increasing accuracy if he did he’d post 40 goals.

Suddenly he’s not so expensive.

I know there are flaws in my analysis — for example, line quality and makeup and chemistry. I’m also not hoping Carter/Hartnell shoot less to get the puck to Lupul more, but I think that as he develops he’ll simply have more shots (fewer turnovers on his end, creating more turnovers on the other end, take a few shots from Hartnell & Carter perhaps or whatever line he’s on) and then we’ll see a guy with increasing accuracy and the capability to top 35 goals.

Anyway, I hope that’s what we get. Obviously that’s the frustrating thing — he just has unfulfilled potential. But he’s also 25, so I’d like to give him 2 or 3 more years in a Flyers uniform before we call it quits and trade him. $4m for 50 points isn’t THAT ridiculous, and we can expect him to improve his point totals since history indicates he will.