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Statistics of What the Flyers Lack -- Puck Prospectus

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=121

We need us some of these defenders. SDPs stands for "Shut-Down Player," and can be translated to football's "Shut-down Corner," guys who don't necessarily get all the stats (goals / assists / PIMs / interceptions / sacks / tackles), but are integral parts of the team because, specifically, they prevent the other guy from getting the stats. Think Nnamdi Asomugha or Sheldon Brown, football fans. NBA fans, think Tayshaun Prince or Iguodala's D. NHL fans, think the players below.

Put simply, all SDPs have three things in common: a low goals-against
average at even-strength, while killing penalties, and a low number of
penalties taken.

Player Team REG ESGAA SHGAA PEN SDP
Steve Montador Boston 3.87 0.64 0.00 1 0.61
Stephane Yelle Boston 2.55 0.91 0.00 1 0.87
Kevin Bieksa Vancouver 3.36 0.49 2.25 3 1.08
Petteri Nokelainen Anaheim 2.61 0.00 4.49 1 1.19
David Krejci Boston 3.06 1.52 0.00 0 1.22
Drew Miller Anaheim 3.89 0.45 3.99 1 1.23
Jason Chimera Columbus 2.93 1.33 0.00 1 1.28
Nicklas Backstrom Washington 3.04 1.42 0.00 2 1.29
Ryan Getzlaf Anaheim 4.86 1.33 0.00 6 1.38
Josh Gorges Montreal 3.24 1.58 0.00 1 1.39
Michael Peca Columbus 3.95 0.00 6.16 1 1.48
Marian Hossa Detroit 3.13 1.74 0.00 1 1.48
Blake Wheeler Boston 3.78 1.87 0.00 0 1.50
Niclas Wallin Carolina 3.44 1.18 2.77 0 1.50
Rod Brind'Amour Carolina 4.64 1.60 0.00 3 1.53
Matt Bradley Washington 2.33 0.70 5.02 0 1.57
Tim Gleason Carolina 3.57 1.64 0.00 4 1.58
Patrice Bergeron Boston 16.46 1.56 0.00 3 1.62
Daniel Sedin Vancouver 2.28 1.73 0.00 3 1.67
Daniel Cleary Detroit 4.40 0.00 7.91 1 1.67

(Minimum of four games and at least one minute of penalty-killing per game)

REG:
Regular-Season SDP, read it like a Goals Against Average
ESGAA: Even-strength Goals Against Average
SHGAA: Short-handed Goals Against Average
PEN: Minor penalties taken
SDP: Adjusting the ESGAA by adding 0.2 even-strength goals
for each minor penalty, then averaging it with SHGAA in a 4-to-1 ratio.

Basically, the gist of the article is what we thought we saw. The Philadelphia Flyers played in 6 playoff games, thus qualifying for all the statistics in this piece, but not one qualified for the top 20 SDPs (shud-down players). Not even Timmonen.

What does this say?

Well, firstly, our defense was not good at all. We have Timmonen and Coburn and Richards and Carter, and they all seem like great defensive players, but the fact is even if they are they didn't perform as such in our series vs. the Pens. Even Columbus, which got absolutely creamed, featured a guy in the top 20. It actually featured 2 guys.

For all of our offensive prowess and our 2-way forwards, we couldn't get a single guy to be so good at defense that he shut the opponent down. Boston had 5 guys like that. Anaheim has 3 in the top 10. Both those teams have goalies that are suddenly dominating, and I'd hypothesize that it's not a random correlation. Is it the goalie that's responsible for the high level of SDPs for those teams? I don't know for sure, but NJ didn't have an SDP on the list, and they have the best goalie on this planet. Pittsburgh didn't, either. My guess is that the SDPs create the goalie to some degree, rather than vice versa. Probably it's somewhere in the middle (JSG didn't play well this year even with all those SDPs in front of him, ditto Manny Fernandez) but seeing as the teams with a lot of SDPs seem to consistently have good goaltending from one source or another, I think that the causative factor leans more towards the SDP side than the goalie side.

I'd guess we have a couple guys in the 20-40 range, so it's not like we're defensive slouches, but this playoffs we simpliy did not perform up to snuff defensively.

What does this mean going forward? We're fine with Biron. He ain't the problem. I bet if we got a couple of those elite SDPs (Nokelainen, Montador, Bieksa, Gorges all make our roster with ease), Biron or even Niitty go from guys who we talk about as "above average but can't carry us to the cup" to "Jonas Hiller outta-nowhere-dominant-WTF" 2.0.

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by Broad Street Hockey.

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when you have a solid blueline it forces players to shoot predictable shots and not being able to just muscle in for the rebound or finesse through like crosby and malkin did all series. timmonen is good at staying with the play but malkin at any stride can be like move over shorty and use his wingspan to beat him. We need some big fast bodies, talent is great too, but the brunt of it is you need somebody to force the shot from the outside, disallow screens, and make the players sore when they go into the corners for those scrums. [begin the salivating for Jaybou]

by kolparty on May 8, 2009 3:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If we can't get one of the superstar high priced guys...

… I’d say go for Steve Montador. I’ve liked him for a long time, and I think he’d fit in really well here.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on May 8, 2009 4:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

I don’t think we need a Bouwmeester type. He’d be great, but he’s expensive… Why couldn’t we go after the Montadors + Nokelainens and Matt Bradleys of the league? Josh Gorges is not as good offensively as Bouwmeester, but he is a hell of a lot cheaper and similarly aged. I bet we could trade not-too-much to pick him up, and suddenly our 3rd defensive pairing is exceptional rather than craptastic.

by Alon on May 8, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Plus...

What’s great about Bouwmeester is that he can shut down the opposition, but he also has some offensive talent. But Montador can do that too. So can Timonen. So can Coburn and Carle… and I really think that they will next year. I know I’ve said this a lot, but I really have high hopes (and expectations) for that defensive pairing.

If that were the case, we’d have 4 Bouwmeester types already, and Montador can throw big hits.

Timonen-Montador
Coburn-Carle
Jones-Parent
Sbisa

That would be fine.

I read that the Flyers brass have “reservations” about Mike Komisarek. What are they, exactly? Is it his health? His attytood?

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on May 8, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Komisarek slow and ineffective offensively

He’s only good if he’s paired with an offensive guru (as he was in Montreal)… We don’t have that, in which case he can be isolated on the counter-attack and isn’t fast enough to recover.

I’d love Montador. I refuse to believe we’re going into the season w/ Jones on this team, I hope that that third line is Sbisa-Parent, especially because we don’t carry 7 D-liners. The only other option I can see is if we put Sbisa at the 4th line wing and also give him some D-line minutes. Not sure that would work too well.

by Alon on May 8, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the more i think about it i want to keep carle, defense is so hard to lock up and besides some inexperience with the outlet passing, he’s sure to develop. My vote is keep carle and see how he produces. carle showed glimpses of timonen jr. still, we need one more defensemen to make up for randy jones, unless sbisa goes jc romero on us and takes his spot.

by kolparty on May 9, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with you on Carle. He wasn’t the offensive guy we expected, but he always seems to block two shots every shift. Keep him.

by Geoff Detweiler on May 9, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does that mean Sbisa gets suspended for 50 games?

I hope not.

Sbisa would be a fine replacement for an offensive-minded guy like Jones.

I guess I’m forgiving of Randy Jones because he seemed to be one of the few guys who showed up during the awful 2006-07 season.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on May 9, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you want defense, why are you proposing we keep Carle?

by SJPhillyVT on May 20, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Regular season rank?

Is there a regular season rank to this? I mean in the playoffs, players get hot, goalies get hot, and for losing teams same thing. Plus there are injuries (Carter, Richards) that can affect those numbers. I think I’d rather see a guy that is a top 20 over a season or career, then a guy who was able to do it over one playoff series.

by Pondhockey on May 9, 2009 8:18 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Side note

Great stuff though, I’ve never seen this stat before.

by Pondhockey on May 9, 2009 8:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah great post. kudos.

by kolparty on May 9, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks guys

feel free to rec it even though we don’t really do that round here ;)

by Alon on May 9, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't see one

The first column lists the players in the playoffs’ regular season SDPs. What I see from that is that players like Yelle, Nokelainen, Chimera, Bradley, and Sedin are the cream of the crop all season long. I’d guess some of our guys hover around their level (Timonen & Richards & maybe Coburn), but I haven’t seen (or found yet) a regular season SDP list. My guess is that anything under a 6 or 7 is really, really good for regular season SDP. That’s a random guess though, so take it for what it’s worth (i.e. nothing).

The minute I find one, I’ll post it. The site is www.puckprospectus.com, and it’s basically the hockey version of Football Outsiders & Baseball Prospectus. Lots of interesting material in there.

by Alon on May 9, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cool, thanks for the link!

by Pondhockey on May 9, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs


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