The 21st pick: Narrowing down the choices
The draft is just three weeks away, and there's no doubt that the debate has been raging in the Flyers front office on what kind of player they will take with the 21st overall pick in the first round. What weaknesses need to be addressed in the organization?
The most glaring weakness is, of course, the goaltending hole. As I'm sure we all know by now, the Flyers technically have no goaltender signed to an NHL contract for the upcoming season. Martin Biron, Antero Niittymaki, and Scott Munroe are all unrestricted free agents come July 1, and the remaining goalie prospects in the organization -- Jacob Deserres, Johan Backlund, Jakub Kovar, etc. -- are not expected to ever reach NHL status.
Calling it luck might be a stretch, but it's certainly fortunate that the Flyers aren't completely reliant on this years draft to find an immediate starter. It's not going to happen, as this years goalie class is quite weak. Besides, goaltenders rarely ever jump from the draft to make an immediate impact in the NHL. There is debate who the top goalies in the draft are -- some think Matt Hackett of the OHLs Plymouth Whalers, others think Edward Pasquale of the same league's Saginaw Spirit, and there are other options as well -- but where scouts mainly agree is that none of these guys will be selected in the first round.
In their draft preview edition, The Hockey News had Olivier Roy of the QMJHL's Cape Breton Eagles as the top goalie in the draft, followed by Pasquale. They foresee Roy as the 38th best prospect in the entire draft and Pasquale as the 40th. Could the Flyers select one of these guys? Sure, but it would be extremely shocking to see them be selected at 21st overall.
Instead, you can look at the Flyers other organizational weakness: the center position. Paul Holmgren -- and his predecessor Bob Clarke -- have done an excellent job stocking the system with talented wingers. Picks like Claude Giroux (22nd overall, 2006, James van Riemsdyk (2nd overall, 2007), and Andreas Nodl (39th overall, 2006) give the Flyers a ton of versatility on the wings, especially when you mix them with the talent already on the NHL squad.
On defense, strong attention was paid to acquiring young talent and it's beginning to pay off. Ryan Parent will be a mainstay on the the blueline for years to come while Luca Sbisa continues to impress. Look for the Flyers to try to add to that talented young defense core in this draft. Young talent on defense is a priority, but it's not necessarily the top.
But for the most part, it seems as though the Flyers would be best suited to pick up a center with their first round selection this year. They are deep at center in the NHL ranks, but when it comes to the system, the stock is pretty thin. The top-ranked center prospect would be Jonathan Matsumoto, one of the Phantoms leading scorers last season. After him, however, there's virtually nobody.
So it would make the most sense for the Flyers to go after a center ice-man in the first round, especially considering this draft is pretty thick at that position. So who should be available at center at the back end of the first round when the Flyers are on the clock?
Nazem Kadri, 5-11, 175 pounds, London Knights (OHL) -- [video] -- [stats]
Kadri has been described as "one of the most dangerous offensive players in the OHL" and his consistent growth throughout his three junior seasons shows you why. After finishing up with just 22 points in his rookie campaign, he followed up nicely with 65 points in his sophomore year in Kitchener. After being traded to the London Knights, Kadri finished with 78 points in 56 games this past season.
In addition to scoring prowess, Kadri possesses tremendous speed and a decent streak of grit, but despite being listed as a center, he played primarily as a winger in London this year. The chances of Kadri falling all the way down to the 21st pick, however, are extremely slim. If he's there, the Flyers take him without question. But don't count on him being there.
Jacob Josefson, 6-0, 187 pounds, Djurgarfen (Sweden) -- [video] - [stats]
Josefson is a solid two-way kind of guy. He's not going to put up unbelievable offensive numbers, but he can contribute at both ends. Here's what his head coach in the Swedish Elite League had to say about him, via NHL.com: "Josefson is among an elite band of 1991 birth-year players -- there are just three, in fact -- playing regularly in the Elitserien. He's not that big, but he's physically built. He looks like a player that is 25. When we were making that decision, we couldn't look at his age, just how he was competing against the other players on the team. His strengths are that he can read the play, he's strong with the puck, moves his feet really well and he always gets himself time when he gets the puck on his stick."
Josefson is ranked as the third best European skater in the draft by NHL Central Scouting, the 10th best forward in the draft by ISS, and 15th by The Hockey News.
Scott Glennie, 6-1, 182 pounds, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) -- [video] -- [stats]
He played most of his shifts in Brandon this season with Brayden Schenn, ranked fifth among skaters in this draft by the International Scouting Service. But THN says that Glennie "projects to be a more prolific scorer than Schenn" and that he is "considered a better skater than Schenn, but Schenn is seen as a player with more grit." Schenn, the younger brother of Toronto's Luke Schenn, has drawn comparisons to Mike Richards for his hard-nosed style of play. Glennie has more offensive skill than his linemate, which leads me to believe he could be to Schenn what Jeff Carter has been to Richards.
Glennie could drop a bit due to an injury he suffered this past January. He missed three months with a broken elbow but still finished up with 70 points in 55 games with the Wheat Kings. Ranked by the ISS as the 20th best skater in the draft, there is an off chance he could be available when the Flyers are on the clock.
Peter Holland, 6-2, 190 pounds, Guelph Storm (OHL) -- [video] -- [stats]
A point per game player in the OHL, Holland is ranked at number 11 by the ISS. He's been knocked for his work ethic but that might be only because he's not a hard-nosed type of player. As quoted in THN, one scout says "he's not a high-energy player" but he's "smart and calculating" and he "has all the pro tools -- good hands and he's very talented." His talent level is right up there with the top players in the draft.
Landon Ferraro, 6-0, 170 pounds, Red Deer Rebels (WHL) -- [video] -- [stats]
The son of former NHLer Ray Ferraro, Landon is small forward who simply knows how to put the puck in the net. He scored 37 goals this passed season for Red Deer and is a pretty well rounded offensive player. He can skate, he works hard, and is a very smart player with the puck. He also has been called one of the fastest skaters in the draft. His defense isn't as good as it could be and that will definitely be something that he has to work on, but if Ferraro is available at 21, I don't know how the Flyers pass him up. He's ranked at 18 by the ISS.
Jeremy Morin, 6-0, 185 pounds, US National Team Development Program -- [video] -- [stats]
Morin played for team USA in 2007 and 2008, and he definitely impressed. In international competition at the world under-18 championships, Morin scored six goals and two assists in six games. Prior to that, he picked up 34 points in 28 games at the under-18 level and 46 points in 37 games at the under-17 level.
He regressed a bit this past season, however, scoring 25 goals and 20 assists in 45 games. And while scouts have said things like "he might have better instincts around the net than any player in the draft" and that he's "the best pure shooter in the draft," they can't pinpoint the reason for his weak season.
He's a solid player that will continue to grow, and he certainly possesses un-teachable talent. He is a slightly risky pick, which could make him drop to the 21st spot or beyond. The ISS has him ranked at number 28.
Drew Shore, 6-2, 198 pounds, US NTDP -- [video] -- [stats]
"He's a good player, but a project," says a scout quoted in The Hockey News. That's not exactly the best evaluation Shore could've asked for, but it could be worse. He's compared to Holland as a player that has the tools but doesn't always bring it all to the table on every shift. He's not a guy that's going to score you a hundred goals or even produce a ton of points, but when he plays to his ability consistently he has the potential to be a very solid two-way player in the NHL. He utilizes his 6-2 frame very well and is an excellent skater.
Kyle Palmieri, 5-10, 193 pounds, US NTDP -- [video] -- [stats]
Palmieri is a Jersey kid, kicked off of the US under-18 team in a cloud of uncertainty a few months back. Many scouts believe that this will cause him to drop in the draft, but others believe it oddly may have helped him out. As the story goes, he got kicked off of the team because he failed to rat out another player on his team, which could actually be an attractive quality in a young hockey player.
Besides his off-ice problem, though, he's a solid two-way center that has excellent vision and a blistering shot. He's not the biggest guy, but he's very strong on his skates and, as a scout with NHL Central Scouting says, "he very seldom passes up the opportunity to make the right play." He will attend Notre Dame in the fall. A smart, character player and a Jersey guy, Palmieri could be a Flyer if still available at 21.
Louis Leblanc, 6-0, 178 pounds, Omaha Lancers (USHL) -- [video] -- [stats]
Leblanc is ranked at number 16 by the ISS and 13 by NHL Central Scouting, but the fact that he played in the USHL could wind up hurting his selection chances earlier on the first round. He was extremely impressive in his rookies season with Omaha, putting up a point per game and 28 goals in a league that doesn't usually feature dominant offensive players with numbers like that. He was named USHL rookie of the year, but scouts have concerns that his numbers may not translate as well to other leagues.
Here's what NHL Central Scouting's Jack Barzee had to say about Leblanc, via NHL.com: "The most impressive things about Louis LeBlanc are his hands and his evasiveness with the puck; that separates him from other players on the ice right away. He needs to fill out a little bit yet, but he has the frame to be a big center. The other part of LeBlanc’s game that I noticed was his vision; his ability to see and dissect a play and to make the right play. He’s also very competitive and he gets involved in the play."
His favorite NHLer is Mike Richards.
And there you have it. 10 guys who could very well be Flyers in just three short weeks. Virtually any one of them are solid picks, and it looks as though the organization has a good chance at adding a solid center with their first round pick this season. But draft night can be a crazy couple of hours, and these things are never set in stone. With the needs that the Flyers have to address this offseason, there's no guarantee that they even use the 21st selection. If they do, though, there's a plethora of talent available to bring home.
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johan backlund
after reading a couple of articles, it sounded to me that the organization was very high on johan backlund and they never said that he wouldnt make the nhl. They actually think if he plays the way he can play that he could become the next nik backstrom and maybe even be a starter at some point
I'm not as concerned about C
for a couple reasons. Firstly, and most importantly, we’re really really, really young at C.
Richards, Carter, Briere are our current 3 C’s of import (4th line C tending to be a faceoff specialist or defensive guy that you can find on FA a dime-a-dozen), and beyond that, we actually do have some C depth.
Our C depth:
1. Richards
2. Carter
3. Briere
4. Giroux
5. Powe
6. Matsumoto
7. vanRiemsdyk
8. Ross
It’s probably something along those lines, and there are some important points to take home:
A) we’re really, really solid 1-4, and 5 is more-than-serviceable and becoming exponentially better each year
B) 6-8 are also real solid prospects, Ross less so, vanRiemsdyk being the gem.
C) There’re a fair amount of solid C’s on the market this year in FA
D) the average age of our C’s is in the mid 20’s, and the majority are signed for the long-term.
My conclusion is that while I would be happy if we got a great C, it won’t really be a position of need until we make it one via trade. I always think we should just draft whoever the best player is, and if that’s a C then so be it, but if there’s a great LW or RW available I’d be equally delighted (especially considering that, if we lose Knuble, then after Lupul + Giroux the cupboard is very bare, and particularly if we trade Briere and are forced to go with Giroux as a C… I suspect we’re going to try to address RW heavily this off-season to add to our overall NHL flexibility now and down the line)
I agree with Travis, although I always want more defensemen.
Your list is deceptive in that Ross is your #8 C on the depth chart when he was our fourth line center in the playoffs. I see what you’re saying – that we have a lot of guys who can play center – but vanRiemsdyk IS a RW and could very easily end 09-10 as our 3rd line RW. Powe is currently our 3rd line LW, and is likely to make the team out of camp again. Giroux will almost certainly not be in the center for awhile, unless Briere is injured, traded, or bombs in the circle. So, while we have guys who can play center, our depth chart at center is 1) Richards, 2) Carter, 3) Briere, 4) Ross, 5) Matsumoto. Powe might slide in ahead of Ross, but saying we can sign a FA center keeps him on the wing and off this depth chart. If we sign a FA LW, he slides back.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 8, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
JVR is an LW
and has been playing C in college. My list is basically those players who have the capability to play center and who would most likely play there if the guy ahead of them was traded etc.
Guilty as charged...
That took me all of 3 seconds to verify, which shows exactly how lazy I was in posting last time. My apologies. And that explanation makes a little more sense, but I still say you’re exaggerating our depth at C since 6 of your 8 were playing on the NHL roster leaving only 2 prospects, one of whom will likely wind up as a winger. I see your point, but vote for a C or D with the first pick.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 8, 2009 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
well
it’s a bit out of context. Basically, what my list fails to mention (so I will now) is that some of those guys at C reduces depth at LW & RW, so really I guess what it amounts to is just a hypothesis about who we would turn to at C on the 1st line, in order of preference, assuming our winger positions are unaltered. I also think it’s a pretty solid picture of the C position on our team, though. Could use more depth, and if the best guy available is a C by all means go for him, but other than that it’s not as major a concern as getting RW depth, goalie depth/talent in general, and defensive whizzes to take our unit to the next level.
What?
[T]he remaining goalie prospects in the organization — Jacob Deserres, Johan Backlund, Jakub Kovar, etc. — are not expected to ever reach NHL status.
None of them? As far as I know, you are right about DeSerres. However, I think they have hopes for Backlund as a backup, and Kovar is not even 21 yet. And don’t forget Joacim Eriksson, who is only 19. He is the most likely of the bunch to make it.
Remember that the 2007 Draft was supposed to be fairly weak, and several of the players from that class are already making an impact or, at the very least, playing in the pros. With that said, I think we should draft a goalie first. We do fine with drafting forwards and defensemen. We need more goalie prospects, though. We either need to hire the guy from San Jose who recommended all of their goalies, or we need to continue the “throw everything at the wall and see what sticks” approach.
Apropos of nothing else, “Girl Can’t Help It” by Journey is playing in my head. Why?
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
If what Travis wrote is correct, it would be a complete disaster to draft the 38th best player with the 21st overall pick.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 8, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
If the list is correct yeah
but these lists are always very, very gray in the hockey world. Scouts can generally agree on top 10 talent, but after that there’s massive disagreement. Giroux was not projected to go so high, for instance, but I would argue he’s probably amongst the 10 best players taken his year. There’s also a lot less difference in talent (as per puck prospectus) from 15-40 than from 1-5 and 5-15.
Most of all, goalies are the hardest to judge. Even the best goalie scouts admit that they miss a lot on goalies — the players take so long to mature and refine their nuances or become mentally tough etc, that it’s almost pointless to rank the goalies compared to the skaters (various e.g.‘s include Tim Thomas, Jonas Hiller, the Masons… you get the idea… that’s not even the tip of the iceberg)
You're right, you're right...
I just get disheartened when I read that none of our goalie prospects really have a shot at making the team.
I don’t know how old most of you are (I’m 33) but I remember when the Flyers always had very good goaltending. Pelle Lindbergh was very good. Bob Froese was very good. Ron Hextall version 1.0 was very good. We definitely could have won a Cup with either Lindbergh or Hextall. We have not won a Cup with anyone since then, nor could we have:
Ken Wregget. Pete Peeters version 2.0. Mark LaForrest. Dominic Roussel. Tommy Soderstrom. Frederic Chabot. Ron Hextall version 2.0. Garth Snow. Sean Burke. John Vanbiesbrouck. Jean-Marc Pelletier. Maxime Ouellet. Brian Boucher. Roman Cechmanek. Robert Esche. Jeff Hackett. Antero Niittymaki. Michael Leighton. Martin Biron.
Of those 19 guys, 8 (Peeters, Hextall, Roussel, Soderstrom, Pelletier, Ouellet, Boucher, and Niittymaki) came up through the Flyers’ system. Peeters and Hextall have long since retired; Roussel, Soderstrom, Pelletier, and Ouellet never really panned out for anyone; Boucher and Niittymaki are the only ones who appear to be worth anything, and both are backups.
Looking at it that way, you can understand my frustration here. Growing up, I NEVER worried about the Flyers’ goaltending. But I haven’t been comfortable with it in a long time.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
I definitely understand your sentiment. I’m 23, but I’ve been a fan since Roussel and Soderstrom were manning the crease. I know I’ve said it before on here, but I still feel the Flyers give up on their goalies way too easy. Pelletier made the AHL all-star team, and then got added to the Brind’Amour and a 2nd for Primeau and a 5th. Then he disappeared. Ouellet was dumped after 43 games on the Phantoms for Adam Oates and was never given a chance. Those were two first round picks that played in 73 and 41 games for our Phantoms before being dumped. Hackett was a joke, Vanbiesbrouck was a cheap experiment, as was Burke (ver 1.0 and 2.0). Leighton was a flier. Cechmanek was supposed to be our answer, but who really thinks someone can act like Hasek and be successful? Esche was brought in for Boucher, which in the grand scheme was a win, but (as someone who is a huge fan of him) I still say Boucher was given a raw deal. He lost his job after signing that ridiculous contract, but his third year he won it back until he got hurt. Then he was told he had to win it back again without a fair opportunity to actually do so. Another first rounder given up on.
What would have happened if we didn’t throw in Pelletier for nothing in the Primeau deal (upgrading from the 5th round to the 2nd wasn’t enough for Carolina???) or give up on Ouellet in the middle of his first professional season, adding a first, second, and third round pick for 39-year-old UFA Adam Oates. (All because Roenick was going to be out for 2 weeks and Primeau had a bruise.)
It is definitely frustrating, seeing as how we dropped two first round picks less than 75 games into their professional careers and derailed another because we had a 6th-round nut job (with very good numbers) who was the new soup du jour.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 9, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

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