FanPost

Where Have All the Scorers Gone? Or, Will the Flyers be Able to Score in 2009/2010?

There's been a lot of discussion and questioning lately about how the Flyers will net their goals in 2009-2010 after parting ways with key scoring RWers Joffrey Lupul and Mike Knuble in a trade for Chris Pronger and a cap crunch loss to Washington, respectively.

I figured I'd delve a little bit deeper into the issue, and see just how significant our scoring problem is. My hypothesis before doing any research is that I feel our guys will be able to replicate the scoring primarily internally, by some players stepping up / gaining more experience / being healthy. Those're all big risks, though, so here goes nothin.

If the analysis & statistics don't interest you (and they're all admittedly very rudimentary stats, and thus have big percentage of error expectation), I recommend skipping to the end, conveniently labeled "Conclusions" in bold.

 

The Losses

First, let's look at the primary scorers who will not be wearing Flyers OJ&B this year.

Lupul_joffrey_getty_260_medium

via www.sportsnet.ca

Joffrey Lupul Career Stats:

Year Team GP G A Pts +/- PIM PPG PPA SHG SHA GW GT SOG Pct  
 2003-04 ANH 75 13 21 34 -6 28 4 4 0 0 2 1 137 .095  
 2005-06 ANH 81 28 25 53 -13 48 12 11 2 0 2 0 296 .095  
 2006-07 EDM 81 16 12 28 -29 45 5 3 0 0 1 0 172 .093  
 2007-08 PHI 56 20 26 46 2 35 7 14 0 0 3 0 176 .114  
 2008-09 PHI 79 25 25 50 1 58 6 9 0 0 4 0 194 .129  
 Career   372 102 109 211 -45 214 34 41 2 0 12 1 975 .105  

 

Lupul is a guy who, despite inconsistency, is still just about a 30 goal scorer. This year, 30 goals or thereabouts is likely -- we can give him a range of 25-35 goals, most likely being ~30 (give or take 2 goals). The guy has a ton of offensive potential, and there's no real reason to expect regression.

Projected (Pessimistic): 28 goals

 

Next, we lost RW Mike Knuble.

Knuble-action-phi1_medium

via thephillyphour.files.wordpress.com

RW Mike Knuble's Career Stats:

Year Team GP G A Pts +/- PIM PPG PPA SHG SHA GW GT SOG Pct  
 1996-97 DET 9 1 0 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 .100  
 1997-98 DET 53 7 6 13 2 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 .130  
 1998-99 NYR 82 15 20 35 -7 26 3 6 0 0 1 0 113 .133  
 1999-00 NYR 59 9 5 14 -5 18 1 0 0 0 1 0 50 .180  
 1999-00 BOS 14 3 3 6 -2 8 1 1 0 0 1 0 28 .107  
 2000-01 BOS 82 7 13 20 0 37 0 1 1 0 1 1 92 .076  
 2001-02 BOS 54 8 6 14 9 42 0 1 0 0 2 0 77 .104  
 2002-03 BOS 75 30 29 59 18 45 9 8 0 0 4 1 185 .162  
 2003-04 BOS 82 21 25 46 19 32 4 7 0 0 3 1 192 .109  
 2005-06 PHI 82 34 31 65 25 80 13 10 2 0 6 0 217 .157  
 2006-07 PHI 64 24 30 54 2 56 10 8 0 0 1 0 160 .150  
 2007-08 PHI 82 29 26 55 -3 72 15 15 1 0 3 0 177 .164  
 2008-09 PHI 82 27 20 47 5 62 11 9 0 1 6 0 173 .156  
 Career   820 215 214 429 62 494 67 66 4 1 29 3 1528 .141  

GS last year: 27

Knuble's been scoring fewer and fewer goals per game since 2005 (and, really, .4 goals per game in '02-'03 was about equal to his high of .41 goals per game in '05-'06, not to mention in a lesser offensive era). The trend is obvious:

GS/game:

  • '02/'03: .4
  • '03/'04: .25
  • '05/'06: .41
  • '06-'07: .38
  • '07/'08: .35
  • '08/'09: .33

That's by no means bad. It's quite good. My only point is that we can expect further decline from Knuble this year -- it was even obvious last year as the season went on that his legs were giving out.

Projected GS '09/'10: .31 goals/game, for a total of 25 GS

Net Goals Lost (Projected): 53.

Current Situation: 2008/2009 Total GS = 260

2009/2010 Situation: 260 - 53 = 207

Now for the additions:


RW Ian Laperriere

Past 4 years:

 2005-06 COL 82 21 24 45 3 116 1 0 1 1 3 0 133 .158  
 2006-07 COL 81 8 21 29 5 133 0 0 0 1 0 0 118 .068  
 2007-08 COL 70 4 15 19 -5 140 0 0 0 0 1 0 68 .059  
 2008-09 COL 74 7 12 19 0 163 0 0 0 1 0 0 61 .115  

What we can expect:

I'd be pleasantly surprised to see Laperriere score double digit goals again, let alone 21 goals. He's a defensive specialist at this point, although he does not shirk duties offensively. Given ~75 games played, and a better offensive team around him, I think we can expect a modest increase in GS.

Projected GS '09/'10: 10 goals

 

D Chris Pronger

15pair1_medium

via images.usatoday.com

Pronger Stats Last 4 years:

2005-06 EDM 80 12 44 56 2 74 10 32 0 0 3 0 155 .077  
 2006-07 ANH 66 13 46 59 27 69 8 28 0 0 2 0 166 .078  
 2007-08 ANH 72 12 31 43 -1 128 8 22 0 1 4 0 182 .066  
 2008-09 ANH 82 11 37 48 0 88 4 24 0 1 2 0 196 .056  
 Career   1022 142 464 606 153 1457 74 252 2 14 24 3 2300 .062  

 

Going forward:

Pronger can't be expected to be Mike Green or even Zdeno Chara offensively, although his passing skills perhaps surpass both of those two players. Regardless, his goals scored probably won't be much different -- he puts up around 12 goals every year like clockwork, give or take a couple goals. We'll be a bit optimistic with his projection.

Projected '09/'10: 12 goals scored

Aside from that, we have not added too much. Given only these variables, the Flyers could be expected to score 229 goals this year (53 - 22 = 31, and 260 - 31 = 229).

We won't even discuss the defensive influx -- hopefully, a lot fewer goals will be going into our net this year compared to last year.

But we will discuss other important factors:

A) Danny Briere

 Briere-headshot_medium

via thefieldofplay.com


I cannot understate the importance of a full healthy season from Danny. Career stats:

2005-06 BUF 48 25 33 58 3 48 11 17 0 1 4 0 147 .170  
 2006-07 BUF 81 32 63 95 17 89 9 21 0 0 6 0 234 .137  
 2007-08 PHI 79 31 41 72 -22 68 14 23 0 1 3 0 182 .170  
 2008-09 PHI 29 11 14 25 -1 26 4 6 0 0 0 0 54 .204  
 Career   591 204 269 473 -28 459 81 114 0 2 28 3 1287 .159  

 

Goals per game for the last 4 years: .42.

If we see a full healthy season from Danny, that's 34 goals. I think he will be healthier this season, but 34 seems a stretch.

'09/'10 projected: 30 goals scored

 

B) RW/C Claude Giroux

Giroux_claude_getty_400_medium

via www.sportsnet.ca

Claude's game really came on towards the end of the year. He scored 17 goals in the AHL last year, and 9 goals in the NHL, for 26 goals in 75 games played. True, the NHL GS is not the same as the AHL GS, but that's to be expected for a rookie -- I don't think 26 goals is a stretch for Claude this year. After all, he scored 9 in 42 games last year as a rookie, so 20 in 82 is almost expected if he doesn't improve at all -- and already, in the playoffs, improvement was evident. I'll be cautiously optimistic with Claude, and say that he equals Knuble's GS production from last year.

'09/'10 projected: 27 GS.

Suddenly, we've now added 37 more goals to the net output, bringing our projected total from 229 to 266.

If we go even more cautious on Briere (let's say, 25 GS) and Giroux (say, 23 GS), that brings the total down to 257.

Caveats: It may be unfair to expect Jeff Carter to remain a 45+ goal scorer, but then again, Coburn can be expected to put a couple more in net (ditto Carle), and Darroll Powe might even net 2 or 3 more this year. Hartnell having another 30 also seems optimistic, but it's possible. All things considered, as is the Flyers seem fairly likely to put in at least 250 goals.

 

Conclusion:

We've taken an offensive hit compared to what we would have if Knuble & Lupul were still Flyers, but I expect that the net effect on GS will be relatively low -- we still should put in around 255, give or take around 10-15 goals, and that is a fairly pessimistic projection. Last year, we put in 260 with Lupul & Knuble. This year, we oughta be able to replicate with full seasons from Briere & Giroux.

'08/'09 GS: 260

'09/'10 Projected GS: 255, +/- 10

We are, on the whole, about the same offensively as of right now as our net team effort was last year. This is assuming a whole lot of things you can't assume (no regression or injuries, for example), but it's also neglecting any positives (maybe an offensive breakout from a player or two or three -- why shouldn't Gagne, Giroux, and Richards each put up 35 goals, for example?), so on the whole I'd expect our GS to be within that 255 area.

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by <em>Broad Street Hockey</em>.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Broad Street Hockey

You must be a member of Broad Street Hockey to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Broad Street Hockey. You should read them.

Join Broad Street Hockey

You must be a member of Broad Street Hockey to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Broad Street Hockey. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker