Grading the 2009 Flyers: Randy Jones

by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 11, 2009 6:00 AM EDT in Grading the Flyers

Grade: C-

08/09 Salary: $2.5 mil

09/10 Cap Hit: $2.75 mil

09/10 Salary: $3 mil

Linemates: 61.45% Andrew Alberts

Depth Chart Ranking: #6 Defenseman

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	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	TOI/G	PP/G	SH/G	BkS	GvA	TkA
08/09 Regular Season	47	4	4	8	8	22	19:07	1:32	2:18	66	47	26
08/09 Playoffs	6	0	1	1	1	0	14:38	0:32	0:54	8	1	0

I finally got around to Randy Jones, and the delay was definitely intentional. Since I haven't actually watched Jones play in four months, maybe my Jones-bashing would be less severe. Mission Accomplished. As one who heavily relies on stats, Randy Jones' stats on their face are not nearly as bad as I condemn him to being. Not to sound like a 70 year-old baseball scout but, I saw with my own two eyes numerous mental mistakes. I digress...

The numbers on Jones tell a much different story. Looking at his stats above, he looks like a solid player until you reach his giveaway numbers - which are rather awful. Only Mike Richards and Nate Raduns averaged one per game (Raduns had 1 giveaway in 1 GP, Richards had a 94:83 giveaway-to-takeaway ratio in 79 games) for the year. When you look deeper, Jones played against below average competition (-0.02 qualcomp) with below average teammates (-0.03 qualteam) and still managed to escape with a special teams +5 rating on the year. When you factor in the giveaways, that really is quite a feat. So my Jones-bashing is unwarranted? Not quite. See after the jump.

Looking deeper, Jones' numbers are rather Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. I'm not a big fan of the CORSI rating, but it's worth noting that Jones was fourth-worst on the team in that category with a -11.1. He also was the seventh-best in GAON/60 with a 2.38. Some other stats show Randy Jones as average - 8th in GFON/60, 7th in +/-ON/60 - but two others really stand out. First, he was third-worst in points per 60 minutes - ahead of Luca Sbisa and Jared Ross - with 0.46 and dead last in shots against per 60 with 32.7. When Jones first came up, he was supposed to possess offensive skills. He's always been known as a good skater, someone who can jump up in the play, as evidenced by his shooting percentage (I know, I know, what exactly does that tell us?), which led Flyer defensemen. But for his offensive hype, he didn't register many points when he played, and he did not have a single primary assist all year. And yet, he still was able to come out with a +8 rating. He must have played solid defense then, right?

Not exactly, since his defensive statistics are misleading as well. Not a single Flyer gave up more shots on goal per 60 minutes than Randy Jones - 32.7. Not a single Flyer was on the ice for more missed shots against per 60 minutes than Randy Jones - 14.2. In fact, the team gave up 4.8 fewer shots per 60 minutes when Jones was off the ice and 2.6 fewer missed shots against per 60 minutes. Bottom line: Opponents were granted over 7 extra opportunities on goal when Randy Jones was on the ice. Seven! And he still had a positive plus minus. Incredible.

Whether Jones was lucky last year, or if he is simply a contradiction skating, this year should be his last in a Flyers uniform. He is getting paid far too much for the type of player he is, and the team has far cheaper options in the minor leagues - Danny Syvret, Oskars Bartulis, and to a lesser extent Marc-Andre Bourdon and Michael Ratchuk - that should be ready to step up next year. With the team needing to resign Braydon Coburn and Ryan Parent after this year, Jones' $2.75 million will go a long way to off-setting that cost.

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Get rid of him!!!!!

by philiafan14364 on Sep 11, 2009 8:19 AM EDT reply actions

He is serviceable. Salary is a bit high for a D6, but when the signed him they were expecting a D4ish player. Still high. If they can get rid of him to free salary I’d say sure, but if they can’t I wouldn’t be against resigning him after the season for the right price.

by ic0n67 on Sep 11, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Showcase

him toward the middle of the season, if we don’t need him due to our own injuries pawn him of on another team making a stretch run in need of D. Preferred would be an outright trade before the season started

by Crosby sucks on Sep 11, 2009 11:28 AM EDT reply actions

always thought he was a liability on the ice. I have wondered what the Flyers see in him? I am assuming that the Flyers didnt have anyone experienced enough to step into his position. I am sure there are serviceable d men in the system that can play as well if not better……

by craiger6 on Sep 11, 2009 12:31 PM EDT reply actions

He played much better in the 2007-2008 season and playoffs – and the departure of Jason Smith and Derian Hatcher’s injuries temporarily boosted his value to the club, so he got a bigger contract than his actual worth.

I would like to hope that last year he was still recovering from that bad hip, which affected his play – but the mental errors and giveaways lead me to believe that the previous year was the anomoly, not last year.

Trade him right now for any draft pick, and it gets his salary off the cap and increases the number of contracts the Flyers can award to their unsigned prospects. (I am not positive, but I think they have 49 contracts right now, so the organization can only sign one more player until they get rid of more contracts)

by SanDiegoScraps on Sep 11, 2009 1:25 PM EDT reply actions

Agreed, he was huge in the 2008 playoffs. If you look at almost any goal celebration photo from that run, he’s in it.

He didn’t score any goals or get any assists to speak of, he was just a solid bystander, and always made it to the celebration gathering real fast. Which is an undervalued skill.

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by Ben Rothenberg on Sep 11, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe he should add that to his resume when he looks for a new job at season's end

Randy Jones, D, Solid bystander

by Cormican on Sep 11, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

You are judging his value based on pictures? Hey I got these pictures of me standing next to this really hot chick in college. Doesn’t mean I got any, and she is hanging all over a buddy of mine, but I’m in the picture so it counts …..

On this team he is a D5 or D6 (mattering on what you think of Ryan Parent): Timonen better, Pronger better, Coburn better, Carle better, Parent we’ll see. He is serviceable, but @2.75M he is paid too much for a D5 or D6 when you could call up someone from the Phantoms and have them fill in that spot and do just as well for a fourth the cap hit. In the salary cap era you not only need to be serviceable, but you need to be valuable. Someone throw that EPQ number crap out here and see what his value is I’m curious. I’m not saying he can’t help the team, but I really don’t see him ever stepping out and throwing some massive hits or quarterbacking a power play or laying down to block pucks like Pronger or Timonen or Coburn’s orbital socket would respectively. He is kinda just there, but there is in a picture.

by ic0n67 on Sep 11, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I have a hunch Jones is gonna have a big bounce back year.

by SJPhillyVT on Sep 11, 2009 3:02 PM EDT reply actions

I have a hunch that he’ll be traded shortly…….maybe boston will take him

by craiger6 on Sep 11, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I still don’t believe he has been the same player since the Bergeron hit. He became tentative and too passive. I also believe injuries played a role in his poor season. Clearly not worth the money but if block out the salary cap implications he is an average to above average player for D6 that is good. I like him as a player a lot better than Andrew Alberts I only wish he had an Alberts like salary.

by chrislanci on Sep 11, 2009 5:57 PM EDT reply actions

he wasn’t that good before that either. Honestly Bergeron just put himself in a very bad position. You could have picked someone up form a high school team and he would have done the same damage honestly.

by ic0n67 on Sep 12, 2009 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Things I didn't include in the story:

The biggest complaints I have about Randy Jones are his fundamentals. 1) He can’t line a guy up and hit him. I see him all the time line somebody up behind the net, and they just spin away from him as he goes straight into the boards. Then he’s out of the play, and the puck carrier has free roam to find somebody in front of the net. Maybe that’s because of the Bergeron hit, maybe he needs contacts, maybe he just has poor reaction time. But this is a big complaint. 2) Unlike Ryan Parent, Jones doesn’t “keep his head on a swivel” when he’s in front of his own net. Opponents constantly get open behind him because Jones is staring at the puck, unaware of where his man is. This is the most frustrating, since the first thing any defenseman is taught is to know where you man is.

Also, I disagree with Chris: Andrew Alberts was incredibly underrated. He was solid all year, but nobody knew it since he was paired with Jones. Yeah, Alberts made a few mistakes, but less than Jones. While Alberts contributes absolutely nothing offensively, he was a great D6. Stay at home guy who covered Jones’ ass on numerous occasions. I would trade Jones for Alberts straight up, any day. Even if they had the same cap hit, I’d still take Alberts over Jones.

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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 11, 2009 6:44 PM EDT reply actions

just wondering

Can you trade a player to another team and get nothing in return. Cuz that would actually be addition by subtraction.

by Crosby sucks on Sep 11, 2009 10:17 PM EDT reply actions

I’m 95% sure you need to get something. Concievably you could make two trades traded you 7th and Jones for another teams 7th then turn around and swap your 7ths again … technically. At one point i believe you could have sold his contract for cash, but I don’t think that is allowed with the cap.

by ic0n67 on Sep 12, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions

A. Numbers really aren’t very fair to a guy in Randy’s position last season. He experienced rehab and training camp on the NHL roster. Keep in mind, Randy didn’t log a single game with the Phantoms last season.

Not only did he jump right from the trainer’s room to the NHL, but he jumped on the ice next to a guy (Andrew Alberts) who wasn’t even on the team the last team Randy had pulled on a jersey.

So, Randy had to: 1) Test out his injured hip; 2) Work out the kinks of not having played since the 2008 ECF (when he and Hatcher were the top defensive pairing, mind you); 3) Develop chemistry with Andrew Alberts.

I think your expectations given the circumstances are way too high.

I like Jones more than Matt “Should I pinch? No. Yes! No! There goes another odd man rush…” Carle. Even more so when accounting for their cap hits.

B. I think shooting percentage is a very helpful statistic. While certainly shooting percentage is not indicative of scoring ability, I think it is a good decision making indicator. A low shooting percentage means the player had control of the puck and gives it up (whether or not the same team regains control on the possible rebound, they’ve lost control on the shot) rather than work for a better shot.

For Jones, from the point, to have a high shooting percentage tells me that he is either patient with the puck at the point and works the play better, or else he needs to shoot more from the point. And at that point you have to make the determination based on actual visual evidence of his play; all I can say is that I don’t recall ever yelling for Randy to shoot the puck.

by MarioD on Sep 12, 2009 1:19 AM EDT reply actions