As Flyers GM, what would you give up for Ilya Kovalchuk?
by Travis Hughes on Jan 11, 2010 5:34 PM EST
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PrintNote: No, the Flyers are not rumored to be after Ilya Kovalchuk. This exercise is simply for fun.
Atlanta Thrashers superstar Ilya Kovalchuk is in a contract year and it doesn't appear his team will be able to resign him. It's a lot like the Jay Bouwmeester in Florida situation last season or the Marian Gaborik in Minnesota situation. Both teams really, really wanted to re-sign those players but ultimately couldn't get deals done. Bouwmeester was traded at the draft, just before Florida lost him for nothing, and Gaborik left Minnesota for nothing.
Don Waddell and the Thrashers would like to get something for the guy, one would think, and if they haven't started listening to trade offers it's safe to assume they certainly will start soon.
That's where we come in. SBN's Bird Watchers Anonymous, where they talk Thrashers hockey all day long, has asked the other members of the SBN Hockey family to play general manager of their favorite team. They're taking offers for Kovalchuk from every team in the league and they're opening it up to us.
After the jump, take a look at some more specifics on Kovalchuk, the ground rules BWA has set for negotiations, and what the Thrashers are in need of.
Kovalchuk has obviously been an incredible player throughout his career, scoring at least 40 goals in his five of his seven seasons. While he's considered a defensive liability, his offensive capabilities are just absolutely dazzling and would be a tremendous asset to any team in the league.
He has a cap hit of $6.389 million, and as mentioned, is a free agent this upcoming July 1. According to capgeek.com, the Flyers have just $505,708 in space under the salary cap, so any move would have to have a ton of salary going back the other way.
The Flyers are seemingly always involved in some way when major trade winds start blowing, so if Kovalchuk is in fact available, you have to imagine Paul Holmgren will at least inquire. Here's your chance to be Paul Holmgren. Make an offer to BWA and Thrashers fans here at SB Nation.
The ground rules for negotiations, as laid out by the other side:
- Make offers for only Kovalchuk. That means that he's the only player coming back our way. Don't include other Thrashers players.
- It's a trade for his current contract, meaning no sign-and-trade scenarios (see: Hartnell, Scott and Timonen, Kimmo) will be accepted. Obviously, though, a team that acquires Kovalchuk has the first right to sign him before July 1.
- Also, I should add that only realistic offers should be made. Holmgren said yesterday that the Flyers aren't trading Jeff Carter, so why would you include him in your offer when you know it's never going to happen?
Getting to the Thrashers needs, now. This is what the guys at BWA relayed to us today.
GM will want a roster player and a quality prospect(s) and conditional 1st rounders if Kovalchuk re-signs with your club.
No goalies needed (team has three already).
Not looking for over 33 guys or bloated contracts.
Here are a few tools to use while crafting your offers...
- Flyers organizational depth chart - take a look at who the Flyers have at each position.
- capgeek.com's Cap Calculator - crunch the numbers and make it work.
There you are. Make your offers in the comments below. If you'd never want him here in a million years, watch this video where he calls out Sidney Crosby and change your mind. If you don't change your mind, though, make that opinion heard as well. Take a chance to be Paul Holmgren and get Ilya Kovalchuk in a Flyers uniform.
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No JVR
He’s a core piece of our future organization.
by chillicothe20 on Jan 11, 2010 7:12 PM EST up reply actions
Uhh, not much
If they want draft picks, I think thats a dealbreaker right there (unless they want our 2035 1st rounder, in which case its all theirs). Our first pick is a 3rd this year, so I think we should somewhat protective of our high draft picks in the near future to balance out the fact that were likely not getting jack from this years draft.
They can keep him. He likely wouldn’t resign for around 6-7 million again, not worth it in my opinion.
Gotta agree with you on this. He’ll probably sign somewhere for more than what we could offer him without giving away the farm. I think what we have right now is good, assuming everyone plays to their potential and no one gets seriously hurt for the rest of the year. Besides, the only contract we could really unload that would bring him in is Briere’s and I don’t think anyone in the league would touch that one unless Homer’s got a twin brother GM on another team we don’t know about. JVR and Giroux are off limits though.
I don’t think there going to get a prospect, roster player and a draft pick because everyone knows they have to trade them. Correction there not going to get a quality prospect and roster player. I would trade briere or hartnell maybe package on powe but thats about it. And I don’t think danny would approve the trade.
Carter, hartnell, coburn or carel, and picks
by JpH89 on Jan 11, 2010 6:09 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I dont want to give up any picks that we have remaining; they (thrashers) want young talent that I believe is the core of our team for years to come….read giroux , reemer etc . I like carter, I think he was having problems with the screwed up lines, now that he has his regular line mates he is starting to come around.. For me, kovi is not worth the price
by save a whale eat penguins on Jan 11, 2010 7:04 PM EST reply actions
nothing
I don’t want another albatross 11 million dollar contract for a all offense no defense player who hasn’t won a playoff game in his career. 47 pts in 38 games and still a -4 he is good for putting people in the seats but winning cups I don’t think so. Plus his ice time will go way down here and therefore so will his production.
Agreed
Trading for Kovalchuk is a mistake in itself, let alone trading a good player or players for him. The Flyers need depth more than they need another star. A couple of 3rd line forwards and a 5th/6th defenseman would be perfect to acquire at the deadline, but not another offensive star.
by memphisbrando on Jan 11, 2010 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
Rethinking it a second and ignoring no trade clauses I would trade Hartnell Danny Briere and Coburn in a 3 way deal with LAK. We get Kovy they get Briere and Dustin Brown LAK gets Hartnell and Coburn. Impossible yes but you can’t have Briere and Kovy on the same line because they will get Killed in the own end But JVR Carter Kovy 2nd line might be interesting.
by chrislanci on Jan 11, 2010 7:28 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
If you’d never want him here in a million years, watch this video where he calls out Sidney Crosby and change your mind.
Two words: Scott Mellanby.
Regarding Kovalchuk, as awesome as it would be to have an exciting player like him, the last thing this organization needs is another overpaid, too-long-a-term contract, especially if the cap’s going to be stable or going down a bit for a few years here. And besides, he doesn’t backcheck — how exactly would we plan for him to play in a left-wing lock? I don’t want that, and I don’t want the Flyers to be the Ilya Kovalchuk Show. Being the Eric Lindros Show was fun for a few years, but then, well, we all know how that ended.
Forgetting that for a second, I just spent the last hour or so playing around with Capgeek.com to figure out if it was possible to retool the team around an $11.36m left wing. The short answer: no. The Flyers are too deep on the left, so the only way to make room would be to trade Gagne and Hartnell, the former of which sure as hell won’t waive his NTC to go to Atlanta (and the Flyers are too thin on the right to trade Carter instead of Gagne, which moves Briere or Giroux back to center and leaves a gaping hole in the top-6 with nowhere near enough cap room for a Tomas Plekanec). Not trading for Kovalchuk also leaves what I hope is the future third line of JVR-Kalinski-Legein as a distinct possibility.
Good analysis but I am pretty sure the Flyers don’t view their second overall pick from a few years ago as a 3rd line guy.
As they shouldn’t, but if they go into 2010-11 still with Gagne and Hartnell, until Simon gets injured, that’s where JVR will be, so you may as well try to make the best of it.
I’d love for Kalinski to become a third-line player, but based solely on what I read on Hockey’s Future and their AHL stats, I think Matsumoto would be a better third-line center and Kalinski as a fourth-line center. Moto is the playmaker and Kalinski is the grinder. I wish the AHL had faceoff stats, cause all I know about Kalinski’s abilities in the dot is that he’s 32 for 76 (42.1%) in the NHL.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 11, 2010 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
JVR
Guys, I love JVR as much as the next guy. He’s an excelent rookie with tons of potential, but he’s not the end all save all. However, someone said “No JVR, he’s a core piece.” Reemer is 20, Ilya is 26. Would you rather have a rookie with a lot of potential or a veteran, who is still only 26, with 10 years of good hockey ahead of him, who has already reached his potential. If we could do JVR, Coburn, and a throw-in guy or draft pick, I would do it in one second. We have depth from below with Legin, Matsumoto, Maroon, and even Ross.
L1: Ilya, Richie, Gags (Upgrade from Richie, Gags, Giroux- Either Ilya or Gags has to play RW)
L2: Hartnell, Carter, (Insert anyone- Harts and Carts have amazing chemistry. Legin, Pyorola, Carcillo, whoever)
L3: Briere, Giroux, Powe (Giroux, Powe, Upshall was amazing last year)
L4: Chico, Lappy, Bets
by orangeandblack20 on Jan 11, 2010 9:30 PM EST reply actions
You could never fit that under the Cap. You’d probably have to give up Hartnell as well.
by You don't have to be sweet, to be good on Jan 11, 2010 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
Neither Ilya nor Gagne will consider switching sides at this point in their careers.
Regardless, the total cap hit of those 11 players you mentioned + the current defense + Emery and Boosh, forgetting for a second the raises due to the players on the last year of their contract, is $61,883,593. And you’d still need Cote + Pyro/Legein/whoever, which would add another ~$1-1.3 million on top of that.
You beat me to it!
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 11, 2010 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure if your numbers are off or mine, but I totaled $61,574,831 adding in Cote, Pyro, Legein, Leighton, and Jones.
Either way, that proposed team is a LONG way away from getting under the cap.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 11, 2010 9:47 PM EST up reply actions
C: none of the above. Your numbers are for this season and mine would be for next season (hence the remark about raises) with just the 11 forwards he mentioned (assuming Kovalchuk would make the league max), the “normal” six D-men (i.e., Parent and not Syvret), Emery and Boosh. No Leighton and no more traces of the Jones clusterfuck, haha.
ah, that makes sense. I was always bad at multiple-choice. haha
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 11, 2010 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
That wasn’t the point I was making. All I was saying is that I would rather have Ilya than JVR because Ilya is still very young.
by orangeandblack20 on Jan 12, 2010 1:57 AM EST up reply actions
That’s fantastic and all, but there’s no way that all fits under the cap.
With those 11 players you named, plus Legein, Pyorala and Cote (Legein as a fill-in for JVR and two guys currently on the roster), add in our three goalies, and our 7 defenseman (plus Jones’ salary we’re on the hook for), the team is $4.63 million OVER the cap, plus one over the roster limit.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 11, 2010 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
For the record
The “core piece” comment you refer you was ine above, and I clearly said “a core piece of our future organization.” He is not our core now.
by chillicothe20 on Jan 12, 2010 12:14 AM EST up reply actions
Ilya is only 26. That leaves enough future for me.
by orangeandblack20 on Jan 12, 2010 1:57 AM EST up reply actions
Think of Kovalchuk as this year’s Hossa. In 2008, Pittsburgh gave up Colby Armstrong (a 2nd line guy who kills penalties), Erik Christensen (offensive specialist who can score 20 goals a season), Angelo Esposito (their first-round pick from the previous year and — at the time — a top prospect), and their first in the upcoming draft.
And while Hossa neither got them a Cup nor did he re-sign with them, he helped take them to game 6 of the Stanley Cup finals, and getting that close was worth it.
If I am the Flyers (or any team that has the talent to challenge for a long run), I’m giving up a similar package. He is a phenomenal player, and it doesn’t matter if he doesn’t stay with the Flyers.
JVR is a good player, but you have to give up good to get good.
JVR is not as talented right now as Kovalchuk, BUT ...
I sure like his current cap hit better than Kovalchuk’s and JVR’s signed for another two years. If I thought the Flyers were deep enough in talent and Kovalchuk was the “missing piece,” I’d say go for it. But neither scenario applies to the Flyers, in my opinion.
by memphisbrando on Jan 11, 2010 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
Looking back, that trade was a steal for Pittsburgh. But at the time, the Penguins gave up a lot and their MSM didn’t like it, and even FrankD from Pensburgh was skeptical at best.
So, if you think about it, the Pronger trade lines up quite nicely (Lupul = Christensen; Sbisa = Esposito; conditional first round pick = Armstrong; and first round pick), considering we got him for longer than Pittsburgh got Hossa.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 11, 2010 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
I loved the trade at the time (although I was definitely in the minority).
And you and I may disagree, but I hated the Pronger trade for the Flyers (and I still do). He’s not a game-changer any more, and he is past his prime. Still a very good player, but he’s 35, declining, and has a bad contract.
A 26-year-old Kovalchuk (or a 28-year-old Hossa) are game-changers.
I didn’t like the trade at first, actually keeping my frustration in check on the board here.
But if you look at the trade from a business side, Pittsburgh knew they would have a hard time signing Hossa (ignore the fact that they offered him more money than he signed for) and gave up all of that for one shot at the Cup, having Hossa for less than 2 months until the playoffs. We gave up a very similar package knowing we would have him for at least a year and that he would sign long-term.
Different players, different needs, different ages, but we gave up a similar package for 7 years as opposed to 3-4 months. It still may have been too much, but it’s at least on par – IMO – with the Hossa deal.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 12, 2010 8:54 AM EST up reply actions
Counteroffer
While we’re on the subject of lobsided trades, what would the Thrashers give us for Riley Cote?
by BroadStreetBully on Jan 12, 2010 4:09 AM EST reply actions
Ilya's cap hit is around the same as Briere's
Given where we are with cap room, NTCs, et cetera, I don’t think it’s possible without gutting the team. Briere won’t waive his NTC to go to Atlanta. He’s the only player we have with a high enough salary that we could do a one-for-one, so now we’re stuck looking at two-for-one trades. That means we need to clear enough salary for Kovalchuk AND a replacement for whoever the other player in the trade is. We’re probably looking at something along the lines of Carter + Carle for Kovalchuk and a replacement-level defenseman.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
And frankly, one overpaid defensive liability (that is, Briere) is enough, don’t you think?
by penguinsfan on Jan 12, 2010 10:39 AM EST up reply actions
It would be way too difficult to fit him under the cap. Excellent player, tons of talent, costs way too much. My offer for Kovalchuk would be nothing unless Briere would waive his NTC, and as already stated the Thrashers don’t want a bloated contract. Just walk away from this one, it won’t work.
As has already been said multiple times, I think it’s going to be damn near impossible to fit Kovy under the cap for next year, especially assuming it goes down, as has been hinted.
If it was even feasibly possible, we’d have to move Hartnell + Carle + picks to probably even get in the ballpark. Of course, the problem doing this is that I feel you significantly downgrade your defense (not only in terms of of the defense period, but forwards that actually, you know, backcheck). Then you take away the one guy that is suppose to stand in front of the net (Hartnell) and you again disrupt the chemistry that has finally seemed to have formed with this team.
There is no doubt Kovy is a game changer and he’s going to be a force wherever he goes (because I assume he’s going to go to a contender if he moves at trade deadline), but I think our big splash was Pronger in the offseason.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Jan 12, 2010 9:40 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Very well said. That’s pretty much exactly my thought.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 12, 2010 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
he’s not worth the players/picks/money that it would take to keep him.
if he would sign for $6-7M, then I would give up Gagne and our number 1 pick this year (3rd overall?).
Chase Utley is so good that on one pitch he stole second, third and the shortstop's hat.
Never Work
It would not work out financially. Plus, i don’t think Kovalchuk knows what a backcheck is. In the system they are playing you need to play both ends of the ice. I think things are starting to work themselves out. It is to big of a risk to take. If its done it might hurt them for many years to come considering what players they may lose. But if a deal is done, i pray they don’t lose JVR or Giroux!!!!! They are the future!!!!!
One Concern
That somehow Pittsburgh is able to put together a package that brings Kovy in for a playoff rental. I know there is no way they could probably afford to resign him, but imagine Kovy on Crosby’s wing, that would be a tragedy.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Jan 12, 2010 10:03 AM EST reply actions
And you know that Shero would go out and make that deal — or at least try.
I just don’t know if you have to look at anything past this season with Kovalchuk. Get him for the playoffs and hope for a long run.
exactly, hypothetically, they could offer up Staal + prospect + pick, they would have enough cap space to bring him in for the stretch run.
Yes, they lose a solid PK guy and a core member of the team, but they are poised again for a long playoff run with a first line that might seriously score at will.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Jan 12, 2010 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
that would be another serious gamble to give up Staal he is a big part of their team for years to come and if it doesn’t result in a cup which easily could happen for numerous reasons they would be hurting I would actually be pulling for them to make the move they struggled really bad after Hossa left and were able to recover the following year with great moves I doubt they would be able to recover a second time
depth and biggest need?
Also dealing two of our top 6 for Kovy will further weaken our depth we seen how poorly we played when the top lines get all jumbled with Gagne gets hurt if we add Kovy and lost two of current forwards if someone got hurt Asham would once again be playing on 2nd line wing and the 3rd would be full with the Phantom of the month I like having a spare top 6 potential forward on the 3rd line like JVR just in case something goes wrong, right now if I was Homer I would be trying to either land another 2nd or 3rd tier player to replace Asham or Powe on the 3rd line to further bolster our depth or more importantly another solid D man not sure who is out there but I think our 4 D-Man spot is the biggest weakness right now. That would be a great topic to discuss.
PASS
I live in ATL and have seen this guy many times. Definitely not Flyer material. Typical Kovi play, as seen in last year’s 7-0 drubbing by Philly: Kovi is on the point for a PP. He loses it to Gagne, who starts a 2-1 the other way, resulting in a shortie. #17 then slams his stick down in disgust (or embarrassment) and gets 2 for unsportsmanlike.
Again, PASS
trade senerio
IF and i do mean IF a trade would transpire it would almost definatly involve flyers personel at 4 positions leaving.
1 center,2 defense,3goalie,4 right wing
So who would that be
1 briere plays both center and rw
2 emery hes expendible and cheap enough
3 center (heres the part i dont like Carter or Betts) id say carter
4 and defense im going with COBURN herealthough they will want timmonen it would be part of the deal they MUST take COBUMB yes COBUM as part of the deal…
But then again as an added GIFT we can even throw in COTE hes sitting out almost every game sucking up cap money anyway ..
trade
i think gags parent and a #2 pick should do it
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