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A Look at Ian Laperriere

After the story I wrote defending Braydon Coburn, beatniche said, "I’m curious if we might see something similar as far as opinions on who isn’t taking enough flak. The defending articles are great, but I think I’d like to hear some analysis on who deserves to be taking more heat as well."

Well, here is one.  I'm well aware how popular Ian Laperriere is - especially at one specific site - but he's just not having a good year.  In fact, he's on pace for his lowest point total in over a decade.

Lappy was obviously brought in here for reasons other than his scoring touch, so let's take a look after the jump.

Star-divide

So far this season, here are Laperriere's stats:


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2009 - Ian Laperriere 41 2 6 8 -2 82 0 0 0 0 34 5.9

Generally not bad, but there are a few things here that I'd like to point out:

  • Lappy is definitely a streaky scorer.  He has only hit double-digits in goals three times, most recently in 05-06 with Colorado.  However, he's averaged 7.5 goals per year over his 16-year career, yet is only on pace for 4 this year.  If you want to look at it per game, his current 0.05 scoring rate is drastically down from his career 0.12 scoring rate.  The same is true with his shooting percentage (career 10.5%).
  • He's seeing slightly less ice time than he has in the past - down anywhere from 30-45 seconds per game - which might explain why he's taking fewer shots on net.

As I said earlier, Laperierre wasn't brought in here to score.  So while those numbers are down - and a little upsetting - the most important part of Laperierre's game is in his own end.

GP Hits BkS TkA GvA
Ian Laperriere 41 80 37 6 14

 

These numbers tell a much different story.  Laperriere is second on the team in hits (behind only Dan Carcillo), first among forwards in blocked shots, and has a great 0.429 giveaway-to-takeaway ratio.  All of these rates are better than they were in Colorado last year, and only his giveaway-to-takeaway ratio is worse (slightly) than the year before last.

So why do I say that Laperriere is having a bad year?  First off, he's only finished the year in the minus category once in the past four years (a minus-5 in 07-08) and he's on pace to be a minus-4 this year.  Most importantly, Laperriere's advanced numbers show someone having a much worse year.

Last year in Colorado, Laperriere faced tougher competition with worse teammates, and had a much better year:

2008-09 GP QualComp QualTeam G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
Ian Laperriere 74 -0.031 0.059 0.54 0.69 0.15 1.38

 

This year:

2009-10 GP QualComp QualTeam G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
Ian Laperriere 41 -0.043 0.240 0.29 0.00 0.74 1.03

 

As you see, he's facing a slightly worse opposition with drastically better teammates, yet he's scoring at nearly half the pace he did last year, he has yet to set up a single goal himself, and his points per 60 has slipped below that of linemate Blair Betts.  But again, it's his defensive game that is troubling.

2008-09 GP GFON/60 GAON/60 +/-ON/60 GFOFF/60 GAOFF/60 +/-OFF/60
Ian Laperriere 74 1.92 1.99 -0.08 1.89 3.08 -1.19

 

Compare that to this year:

2009-10 GP GFON/60 GAON/60 +/-ON/60 GFOFF/60 GAOFF/60 +/-OFF/60
Ian Laperriere 41 1.62 2.35 -0.73 2.40 2.36 0.04

 

Notice the difference in goals while he's on the ice.  Last year, his team scored 0.30 more goals per 60 minutes with him on the ice, and this year his team is giving up 0.36 more goals per 60 with him on the ice.  That's a 0.66 goals/60 swing in the wrong direction.  One caveat though:  these numbers are purely 5-on-5, so it's difficult to understand how Blair Betts and Dan Carcillo lead the team in +/-ON/60 at 1.49 and 1.11 respectively while Laperriere finds himself sandwiched between Danny Syvret (better) and Darroll Powe (worse).  [Eds. note:  This may be explained by a contradiction between the numbers at Behind the Net and NHL, crediting Laperriere with being on the ice for 11 rather than 14 goals for.]

The problem is fairly simple to see:  The Avalance were a far, far better team at 5-on-5 with Laperriere on the ice last year than when he wasn't while the Flyers are a far better team at 5-on-5 with Laperriere off the ice.  Now, in case the contradiction in numbers puts a doubt in your mind, I'll turn to stats outside of purely goals.

Again, comparing simply to last year:

2008-09 GP CorsiRel SFON/60 SAON/60 SFOFF/60 SAOFF/60
Ian Laperriere 74 -0.5 24.2 24.6 27.0 25.7

 

And this year:

2009-10 GP CorsiRel SFON/60 SAON/60 SFOFF/60 SAOFF/60
Ian Laperriere 41 -13.9 24.4 25.7 30.3 26.5

 

For a quick post on CorsiRel, go here.  But what these numbers tell you is that even though Laperriere is producing the same number of offensive opportunities this year as he did last year, he's allowing over one extra shot on goal against per 60 minutes this year.  While that might not seem like much, he's giving up the 7th highest amount of shots on goal among forwards this year while ranking sixth out of those seven in shots for - better than only David Laliberte.

Also of note is the huge discrepancy with his CorsiRel:  Last year, he was slightly below his team's average while he's far behind the average Flyer this year.  Some of that can be attributed to how many pucks the Flyers throw at the opposition's net and some of it can be attributed to where he starts his shift, but going back to his qualcomp and qualteam, this number still bothers me.

Conclusion:

At 5-on-5, Ian Laperriere is largely under-performing.  But the good news is that there are many possible explanations.  First, Behind the Net may just have made a mistake and Laperriere's numbers are more manageable.  Second, most of Laperriere's troubling numbers may be explained by how his coaches are using him this year:  he has an offensive zone start of just 40.9% this year compared to 43.9% last year in Colorado.  If that's the case, Laperriere's numbers may be explained by the simple fact that if you start in your own end enough times, you're going to give up shots and consequently goals.  Third, he did take a puck to the face.  That could easily change a player for at least a few games, potentially resulting in a lasting effect.  Lastly, Laperriere's bad numbers may simply be skewed by his lack of offensive production.  If that was the case, his defensive game has arguably improved - judging by his hits, blocked shots, and giveaway-to-turnover ratio. 

No matter what the explanation, Laperriere is not having the year the Flyers hoped for when they signed him.

Feel free to disagree with me.

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Taking risks! I like it.

Interesting analysis and, as always, a good read.

Perhaps Lappy’s offensive production seems egregious in part because the whole team is having an “off” year offensively? In other words, maybe we wouldn’t be focusing on his production if we were scoring and winning more. Just a thought. But it is definitely down. He won’t be scoring 21 goals this year, or probably anytime soon.

I am feeling free to disagree with this:

Laperriere is not having the year the Flyers hoped for when they signed him.

When Lappy was signed, Holmgren said this (emphasis mine):

"[Laperriere] is a role player that can take a little bit of the burden off some of our other guys in other roles like penalty killing and face-offs," said Holmgren. "*He is a warrior-type player and very durable. He will provide us with lots of energy* and is one of those types of character players that everybody is after."

He has indeed spent a good chunk of time killing penalties; he has been durable; he has provided lots of energy (particularly when playing on the LCB 2.0 Line); and he has indeed been a warrior. He’s first among forwards in blocked shots, second only to Chico Carbombs in hits, and has fought many times in order to provide a spark to his team.

In light of what was said about Lappy when he was signed – and, more importantly, what he has done this season – I posit that he is indeed having the year the Flyers envisioned when they signed him.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Jan 6, 2010 12:30 AM EST reply actions  

Oops.

This was also supposed to be bolded in the Homer quote:

"He is a warrior-type player and very durable. He will provide us with lots of energy and is one of those types of character players that everybody is after.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Jan 6, 2010 12:32 AM EST up reply actions  

I certainly agree with that.

If I wanted to get really defensive, I’d argue that I didn’t say “Laperriere is not the player the Flyers hoped for when they signed him”, but the confusion is completely my fault and that’s a weak semantic argument. You’re right.

What the Flyers wanted from Laperriere, they’re getting in spades. He’s an excellent penalty killer – I don’t need stats to tell me that, even though they’d defend my position – and is a fantastic role player. And while he’s not having a terrible year, his offense is at it’s worst levels in 11 years and he’s spending a lot of time in his defensive end (mostly due to the coaches) at the expense of the offensive.

So, that confusion is my fault.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 6, 2010 12:51 AM EST up reply actions  

You can also say that his age is catching up with his offensive upside (he’s 35 or 36 years old I forget). You can also make the argument that for 5-on-5, even though his teammates as a whole were worse last year, his line mates were better last year (I believe he played a lot with Stastny, which alone is better then Carcillo and Betts.)

by JpH89 on Jan 6, 2010 1:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Mikefive good post but “LCB 2.0” is blasphemy and should never be used again. :-)

by M from Pdaddy on Jan 6, 2010 9:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Sorry. It was late and it was all I could think of.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Jan 6, 2010 9:17 AM EST up reply actions  

I will let it slide on circumstance. I actually threw up in my mouth a little bit when I read it but I have composed myself. LOL

by M from Pdaddy on Jan 6, 2010 9:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Heart. Miles and miles of heart. Thats what he brings to the table. Thats what we need. Not only did Shane Falco need it, but Pronger last week said thats what we need to get back into our groove.

by orangeandblack20 on Jan 6, 2010 4:37 AM EST reply actions  

I wish the rest of the team had as much heart as Lappy. If they did, we wouldn’t be in the basement underneath the ISLANDERS.

by jello44 on Jan 6, 2010 3:13 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s funny how many times Colorado Fans said almost the same thing last season. The Avs miss Lappy this season.

The 2009-10 Avalanche: Have the wheels fallen off?

I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.

by Americanario on Jan 6, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Statistically maybe he is not having the greatest year, but I don’t think ANYONE on our team is having their statistically best year. Laperriere brings things you don’t put on the stat sheet.

Besides I know one stat he is leading in: Most Teeth Lost in 09-10 Season- Ian Laperriere.

by NoalB on Jan 6, 2010 7:24 AM EST reply actions  

I know one thing and that is that the Lappy-Betts-Carbomb line is my favorite to watch. I’m curious what Lappy’s numbers are with and without Betts in the lineup, that line only seems to work with Betts in.

by eric88 on Jan 6, 2010 9:18 AM EST reply actions  

Very good point. I’m not sure how to find that out, but I definitely would be curious too.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 6, 2010 10:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Compare game logs

Look at Betts’ games played and look at Lappy’s games played without him.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Jan 6, 2010 11:02 AM EST up reply actions  

But that won’t get the qualcomp, qualteam, corsirel, etc. stats.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 6, 2010 11:10 AM EST up reply actions  

Laperriere had exactly 0 points and was a minus-8 in 19 games without Betts.

I guess you don’t really need more stats to show just how important Betts is to Laperriere.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 6, 2010 11:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Nope. Sounds about right.

Blair Betts is The Straw That Stirs The Drink, apparently.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Jan 6, 2010 12:05 PM EST up reply actions  

For the entire team, somehow – let alone Lappy. Look at the record with and without Betts in the lineup. He can say the right thing and call it coincidence, but I think not. Also notice that Carcillo and Betts lead the Flyers forwards in +/- rating. That so-called 4th line is the one driving this team right now; they truly are the ENERGY line!

by penguinsfan on Jan 6, 2010 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Only problem with that is where the hell is the bus going while those guys are driving, because it ain’t the promised land brother!

by M from Pdaddy on Jan 6, 2010 1:04 PM EST up reply actions  

where the hell is the bus going while those guys are driving

The golf course, at this rate.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Jan 6, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Nice to see people having some fun on the site once in a while.

by M from Pdaddy on Jan 6, 2010 2:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d just like to point out that the Carbomb-Betts-Lappy line had yet ANOTHER goal last night, and the game winner at that. One of you stat-heads: can you look at the points-per-game for those players with Betts as opposed to without? I have neither the time nor the patience today …
Interesting stat tho – during the telecast last night, they showed ice time after the first period (I think) and Lappy was the team-low with not quite three minutes. Again for the numbers people – how’s his ice time for the season?

by penguinsfan on Jan 7, 2010 8:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Lappy: 2 goal and 7 assists in 24 games with Betts, 0 goals and 0 assists in 19 games without Betts

Carcillo: 3 goal and 2 assists in 24 games with Betts, 1 goal and 3 assists in 15 games without Betts

I’d love to break that down into points per 50, but It’s late and my battery is about to die.

While not a per-game look, Lappy is getting 13:06 per game on average this season. In his last 8 games, his lowest was 10:10 and his highest was 15:48. 5 times in the last 8 though, his TOI was between 12 and 13 minutes.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 8, 2010 1:44 AM EST up reply actions  

I would really rather have Upshall and Metropolit than “Lappy” and “Carbomb”, but I guess they are really meeting the penalty/fighting quotas necessary to play around here and they are really working-hard, mucking and grinding in the corners, ehh.

by M from Pdaddy on Jan 6, 2010 11:21 AM EST up reply actions  

I miss Metro. Upshall, not so much.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Jan 6, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions  

avs fan here

we’ll trade you darcy tucker for him, deal?

by thedoctor on Jan 6, 2010 3:04 PM EST reply actions  

Throw in that Stastny kid and you got a deal. We can even toss you Carter if it helps the sell.

by M from Pdaddy on Jan 6, 2010 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

No deal, how about Clark and Tucker for Lappy?

The 2009-10 Avalanche: Have the wheels fallen off?

I'm The Canary - but I'm not cute nor cuddly, and I don't sing.

by Americanario on Jan 6, 2010 3:50 PM EST up reply actions  

We’ll throw in a bag of pucks and a 6 pack of beer too.

Jesus Saves! Yip gets the rebound and scores! Really? That's where I'm going with this? Really? Come on Duchene and SoS start scoring!!

by An Unmitigated Disaster on Jan 6, 2010 5:06 PM EST up reply actions  

The “Banquet” Beer! None of that light stuff.

by M from Pdaddy on Jan 6, 2010 5:09 PM EST up reply actions  

We’re being invaded by Avalanche fans! RUN!

Kidding.. I actually like the Avs, Joe Sakic = godly.

Some think too much, then come too soon
I just curse the sun, so I can howl at the moon

by jello44 on Jan 6, 2010 6:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Joe Sakic = godly

Truth!!

And besides, we’re mostly cool peeps;-)

"You mess with our Hejduk and the Spirit of Lappy is coming!"-Jibbles
MHH- The Haiku capital of AvsNation.

by gl avfan on Jan 6, 2010 6:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Yup, ya gotta be if you’re a Broncos fan. :D

Some think too much, then come too soon
I just curse the sun, so I can howl at the moon

by jello44 on Jan 6, 2010 7:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Avs fans should still be kissing our buts for the Stanley Cup we gave to you for Eric Lindros. Somewhere that owner is still spending the 15 million. Ugh!

by M from Pdaddy on Jan 6, 2010 6:56 PM EST reply actions  


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