Now that the Flyers are starting to get hot again, I thought it might be interesting to look more deeply into their record under certain circumstances. I took four different scenarios and looked at performance in each to determine the important things the Flyers need to do to continue to win games statistically.
In the 45 games played up to this point the Flyers have won more faceoffs than their opponents 22 times, and have lost more 23 times.
Their record in games where they have won more faceoffs is 13-9-1. A points % of 0.59 (27 out of 46 possible)
Likewise in games they have lost more faceoffs is 10-10-2. Points % of 0.50 (22 of 44)
Almost a 10% swing between wins and losses based just on winning more faceoffs, but they are still average when they have a bad night on the draw.
The next stat I looked at was the number of Shots on Goal Allowed in each game. For purposes of comparison, I set games into two categories games where SOGA is 25 or less, and games where SOGA is more than 25.
The Flyers have allowed more than 25 shots in 32 games this season, and though I recall a lot of people complaining that they allow too many shots, they have a very nice record of 18-11-3 in those 31 games, a points percentage of 0.61 (39 of 64).
On the other hand, when the Flyers have held their opponents to 25 or fewer shots they have a rather poor record of 5-8-0 only a 0.38 points percentage (10 of 26).
So where I understand that a Goalie can become worn out from facing a lot of shots over the course of a season, it appears that this is less important that keeping a goalie focused by having him make saves rather than not seeing shots.
There was a time for a few weeks where our offense was slumping, but now that it seems to be clicking again things look bright. The next analysis I did was of games where the Flyers score 3 or more goals in a game.
For a team that is 8th in the league in Goals Scored, and 7th in Average goals per game (2.92) The next two statistical analysis are going to make things look very bright.
When the Flyers score 3 goals or more, as they have done in 23 games this season, they have a record of 19-4-0 for an astounding points percentage of 0.83 (38 of 46), this is good news especially for a team averaging around 3 goals per game.
However, when they score fewer than 3 goals their record is really bad 4-15-3. Luckily, 3 goals isn't too high a number to be able to reach regularly in games.
The last stat I looked at was First goal.
The Flyers are 20-5-3 when scoring first gathering 77% of available points when doing so. So when the flyers get the lead first in a game, they are shutting teams down or at least not letting them come back to win 3 times out of 4 which is pretty good news.
Though when they get behind first they are 3-14-0 which does not make me feel comfortable to have this team playing from behind.
So, the Flyers are now 8-1-1 over their last 10 games, in those ten games, of the four losses:
only once have they had more than half of the statistical odds mentioned here favoring them and lost (vs. Ott)
only in the OTL against Boston in the WC did they fail to meet 3 of these statistical criteria (they met two of the 4)
In addition, They have:
won more faceoffs in 6 of their last 10 games,
Allowed more than 25 shots in 8 of the last 10
Scored 3 or more in 8 of the last 10
Scored 1st in all of the last 10.
Conclusion: When you watch the Flyers play, you should feel extremely confident if they score the first goal of the night, and/or score 3 or more in a game. If they are able to win more faceoffs that favors them, as well as working their goalie a little by having an average number of shots allowed.
I am welcome to discussing other statistical trends, if there is a particular one you would like to see, I will try and gather the information.
OK. Here are the Goalie Stats.
Note: I am throwing out games in which 2 Goalies played due to the started being "Chased" because they skew the stats. Also, I am showing Leighton's numbers, but his sample size is not large enough in both types of games to make a good comparison (hes only faced 25 shots or less once).
Emery - (pulled from 2 games (21 and 26) stats not included)
Games Facing more than 25 shots - 2.40 GAA .919 SV% (13 Games (1 Shutout)) 9-3-1
Games Facing 25 or fewer shots - 2.67 GAA .886 SV% (6 Games) 2-4-0
Boucher - (Pulled from 1 game 35, came in to relieve in 3 (21, 26, 41) stats not included)
Games Facing more than 25 shots - 2.86 GAA .906 SV% (8 Games) 3-4-1
Games Facing 25 or fewer shots - 1.80 GAA .901 SV% (5 Games) 1-4-0
Leighton -(pulled from 1 game (41), came in to relieve in 1 game (35) stats not included)
Games Facing more than 25 shots - 2.39 GAA .927 SV% (7 Games) 6-0-1
Games Facing 25 of fewer shots - 0.50 GAA .972 SV% (2 Games (1Shutout)) 2-0-0
Interesting note: in no game where there were 25 or fewer shots has a goaltender been pulled from the game.
So, Emery seems to play much better when he sees more shots, where Boucher plays a little better when he sees fewer shots (despite his record in such games) allowing almost 1 fewer goal in such games with a similar SV%. Leighton has been incredibly solid and i suppose if I wanted I could look at his stats from the games he played in CAR, but for purposes of my analysis they really wouldnt be relevant.