Pronger skates with team, Backlund clears waivers, Riopel sent to ECHL
by Travis Hughes on Oct 5, 2010 2:53 PM EDT
in Philadelphia Flyers News
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The risk paid off. Johan Backlund cleared waivers at noon today, according to a Canadian TV network, and has successfully been sent down to the Adirondack Phantoms without incident. As we mentioned yesterday, though, he can't be called back up to the Flyers this season without clearing re-entry waivers. Nic Riopel just lost out on a chance at the starting gig in Glens Falls.
In fact, could Riopel have been sent to the ECHL as early as this morning? Tim McManus of the Post Star reported from Phantoms practice this morning that Riopel was nowhere to be found. According to Tim, Backlund and Brian Stewart were the two goalies with the team today. Hopefully he'll give an update a bit later.
UPDATE: Tim says Riopel has indeed been sent to the ECHL. I'm assuming that means he's going to Greenville. Tye McGinn was also sent back to juniors today. In any event, Brian Stewart just leaped Riopel on the depth chart. Thanks to Tim for the update.
In other news, the Nashville Predators traded Ryan Parent to the Vancouver Canucks along with Jonas Andersson in exchange for Shane O'Brien and Dan Gendur. Parent was also placed on waivers as soon as the trade was completed, so it looks like he'll be on a one-way flight to Manitoba -- that is, if there are direct flights from Nashville to Winnipeg. (Side note: how funny would it be if the Flyers picked Parent up for nothing?)
A few other notes from Flyers practice after the jump...
- Chris Pronger skated with the team today. Who knows if he'll play Thursday, but I wouldn't count on it. Still, it's a step in the right direction. He didn't skate in a second practice session, instead going off early for rehab.
- Initially, Andreas Nodl was the odd man out on the ice during the first practice session, as reported by Philly Sports Daily. In the later practice session, he skated on the fourth line with Jody Shelley and Darroll Powe as Betts left early for an unknown reason.
There was some pretty amusing confusion among the beat writers on Twitter surrouding the Betts-Nodl front, which you can go read in our live Twitter reader.
- Dan Carcillo practiced on the top line with Jeff Carter and Mike Richards according to everybody at practice. I still wonder how much better Bill Guerin would've looked on the top line (or, at least, in the top nine) over Carcillo.
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carcillo
i think he plays better with richards and carter than guerin could have. At the very least, carcillo brings energy, which was something old Billy obviously lacked. I’ll never understand everyone’s hatred for carbomb.
I don’t get it either. He’s a Philly boy. Then again, haters gonna hate.
Flyers fan since 1983. I missed the good stuff.
He is not a good enough player, he is not big enough to be a legitimate fighter and it is embarrassing to see his conduct on the ice and on the bench. It is a waste of a roster spot. Billy Guerin brings more to this team by sitting in the locker room with only his jock strap on.
Just Call Me "M"!
I think
Richards actually benefits from Carcillo, as much as Carcillo benefits from Richards. Lets face it, he draws penalties and plays decent D and gets star players off their games. Hes a very good compliment to our best forward, especially if the other winger is carter(our best scorer).
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
and most importantly
That they have great chemistry together.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
Define Chemistry?
Carcillo only had 22 points last year he doesn’t have Chemistry with anyone the door keeper for the penalty box.
just because he wasnt the #1 scorer doesnt mean he didnt look good.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
its no use, looking really good with someone doesnt mean anything if their corsi(isnt that a resturant) doesnt improve. or so I hear.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
If looking really good means you are in your own zone giving up shots more often than you’re in the offensive zone taking shots, then no, “looking really good” doesn’t mean a whole lot.
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I can’t even rationalize that line of thinking with a coherent response so we will disagree.
Just Call Me "M"!
Im just saying, obviously Richards like Carcillo on his line. Lavy like Carcillo on his line. and Homer likes Carcillo on his line. otherwise, they wouldnt keep putting him up there.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
I think it is more a case of losing Carcillo on Richards line. Richards would rather play with true talent not sideshows.
Just Call Me "M"!
obviously not since he seems to like playing with him. Im sure if he didnt find Carcillo useful on his line, he would have told Lavy by now. Unless, of course, you dont think Lavy is a good coach AND Richards is a good captain?
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
I wasn’t aware of your one on one conversations with Richards telling you he obviously likes playing with Carcillo.
Just Call Me "M"!
yeah I saw him at one of the Temple frats last week.....
But like I said, as a captain, Im sure Richie could tell Lavy who he thinks would be useful on certain lines. And like I also said, they obviously see something with those two that must click since they like playing them together.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
How exactly does Richards benefit from Carcillo? When the two of them were together last year, Carcillo certainly didn’t drag Richards down, but he definitely didn’t improve Richards’ play.
Richards’ Fenwick, Corsi, and Shooting Percentages all dropped when he was with Carcillo, while the plus/minus, Shot percentage, save percentage, all increased marginally.
So basically, Richards made Carcillo significantly better, but Carcillo didn’t make Richards significantly better or worse.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Richards’ Fenwick, Corsi, and Shooting Percentages all dropped when he was with Carcillo, while the plus/minus, Shot percentage, save percentage, all increased marginally.
… what does this prove?
Not much of anything, really. It just proves that Carcillo neither drug Richards down nor elevated his play.
Basically, Richards was just as good without Carcillo as he was with him.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
How though? I read that as:
Made-up-stat, made-up-stat, concrete stat goes down while arbitrary stat, concrete stat that also dropped in the example, and wtf stat all increased …
I mean you are saying shooting % went down and up while they were together and how does save % factor into the forwards? Is this some other save % than what I was thinking?
In theory Carcillo should be running amok and causing havoc to open space for Richards all the while protecting him by keeping the other team honest. If you could indulge me show me goals, assist, shots, +/-, hits for, hits against, fights, PIMs, and TOI for Richards while he was on ice with Carcillo and when he was not. Only even strength numbers … compare those and you should see if there is a difference.
A) You’re confusing shooting percentage with shot percentage. Shooting percentage is the percent of shots that were goals; shot percentage is the amount of shots the Flyers took compared to all the shots that were taken by both teams.
B) Fenwick and Corsi are not made up stats, since they calculate the amount of shots directed at the net. The higher the percentages, the more that player/those players are controlling the play.
C) Save percentage while a player is on the ice is important to realize if that player is falling victim to poor goaltending, unlucky goaltending, good goaltending, or lucky goaltending.
D) If you clicked the link, you would see goals, shots, plus/minus, and TOI. Why you need to see assists, hits, fights, and PIMs is beyond me, since none of those stats tell you anything about who was controlling the play.
compare those and you should see if there is a difference.
Which is what I did. The difference between Richards with Carcillo and without is negligible at best – and would in fact suggest (not answer, due to small sample size) that Richards played worse, but got lucky – but Carcillo played drastically better with Richards than without.
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
k.
A) I figured I was getting them confused after I posted and saw the ing at the end of one. But I never though it was that … What does the amount of shot the teams took have to do with the amount of shot an individual player took (or attempted to take)?
So say two games in a row there were 20 shots by both teams … the Richards line got no shots for the entire first game, but took all 20 shots for them the second game. Every player on the team would have the same 50% shot %? If I’m correct what does that prove about anything with line chemistry?
I was thinking it was going to be a % of time he shot the puck at the net instead of passing it or losing control. That could be an interesting stats.
B) I will always be against those numbers because they are based off equations and in fact the first time I looked at what Corsi stats were the create admitted they it wasn’t 100% flaw free. How could someone use a flawed equation as a hard statistic? And the higher % of shots attempts isn’t concrete to controlling play. You can control play and win games with low shot totals if you have a good defensive scheme and a good passing game.
C) Yes … but what does that do when talking about line chemistry? or how well an individual player is playing? You can defiantly have someone playing their position perfectly but still fall victim to a bad bounce or the goalie sneezing at the wrong time. I can see how using it in conjunction with other factors can help paint a bigger picture I guess, but I don’t really see it in action enough to bet the farm on it.
D) Mostly I don’t understand the break down and how the cart is set up. Like for instance the first line Player #2 I assume that is … someone (who wore #2 last year?). He player 27 games has a goal on 23 shots … but then getting over to the on Ice stats under goals there are two numbers and 8 and an 18 … what does that mean? goals for and against while on ice? I just don’t know what I’m looking at.
As for the other stats I requested I want to see if Richards was protected any more while Carcillo was on ice. If i see how many hits he delivered compared to taken it can give a glimpse into people maybe not taking runs at him as much because they know Carcillo would be up their ass in a heart beat. Fights the same deal does he have to be the one to drop them when Carcillo could step in and throw them.
And I don’t see TOI at all …
enlighten me … according to that chart (i think):
Asham has a .511 and Ian Laperriere has .454
Carter is .525, Richards is .520, and Hartnell is .517
… what does that mean?
Corsi numbers reflect the total shots for/against while the player was on the ice. Higher numbers mean that a player took more shots than he had against, and this can be used as a measurement of how a player controls the play.
It’s better measure of controlling play rather than GF/GA, because often those aren’t directly under team control.
Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.
So Asham individually controls the play better than Laperriere? I assume a higher score = better control of game = more value to a team.
Because his number is higher. But his number is only .009 of a point away from Richards does that mean Asham is on par with Richards and thus around equal value to the team … which is why he is in Pittsburgh right now?
And don’t these players play in totally different situations? Richards is usually out there verse top line players isn’t he? Asham is out there verse scrubs at times. Betts isn’t out against the top lines like Richards is either and he has a .437. So he is leaps and bounds worse than Asham because his score is so low.
How what a defensive player like Betts? How does a score like that do him justice considering his role on the team isn’t to keep shooting non-stop? What about a player like Crosby who can control the puck well, but has more skill as a passer. I mean heaven for freaking bid if his score is anywhere near Richards.
So I’ll ask again … what does that mean?
Richards vs Lappy vs Asham
Richards and Lappy both faced tougher competition (see qualcomp). Asham got to start in the offensive zone 51.7% of the time, compared to Richards 46.8% and Lappy’s 40.6%. This means Asham got easier zone starts, so was put in a better position to be successful. Asham’s zone finish was only at 50.2% in the offensive zone, meaning, he moved backwards (51.7% vs 50.2%). Where as Richards and Lappy’s offensive zone finishes were at 50.1% and 44.4% respectively (both higher than their offensive zone starting %), meaning they moved the play forward. You need to look at more than just one stat to get a clearer picture. I know you want to fight it, but if you look at all the information that can be presented to you with statistics, and take the time to understand it, it can be quite helpful and telling.
Is this the right room for an argument?
I’ll try to answer all this as quickly and clearly as possible:
Shots are more predicative of success (i.e. goals) because goals are highly dependent upon luck. But you can’t just say “The Flyers take more shots when Asham is on the ice than they give up when he’s on the ice, therefore he’s awesome.” Even though Asham is awesome, the reason you can’t do this is because of all the reservations you listed above: How is he used? What is his aim? Who is he playing with? Etc.
Because of this, Corsi and Fenwick cannot be used without acknowledging where that player starts his shifts (zone start), who he plays with (qualteam), and who he plays against (qualcomp). So Danny Briere has a super high Corsi, but he’s starting in the offensive zone, with great teammates, against average competition. Richards has an average-to-high Corsi, but he does it starting in the defensive zone, with average teammates, against fantastic competition.
Bottom line: Corsi doesn’t stand alone, just as no single stat (be it goals, assists, points, plus/minus, hits, etc.) stands alone.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Betts
You can see his value in his QualComp number, as well as his ozone start and ozone finish numbers. He only started in the ozone 39.2% of the time, but finished there 47% of the time. He also had the 4th highest qualcomp on the team.
Is this the right room for an argument?
It’s all about context. You can pull any number from that website and use it to describe a player and compare him to others, but you’d be foolish to. You build a story using Corsi, SV%ON, SH%ON, Qualcomp and Qualteam and ZoneStart
Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.
Don’t you get it. You are not welcome in the Corsi/Fenwick club. That is only for certain minds bro.
Just Call Me "M"!
The Corsi/Fenwick Club is a gentlemen’s club which only exists in the confines of my imagination.
It’s a place one can go for a lap dance AND intelligent discussion of advanced hockey metrics.
AT THE SAME TIME.
That’s right. Our dancers know their stats, inside and out.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
Kind of like that scene in The League?
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
What does the amount of shot the teams took have to do with the amount of shot an individual player took (or attempted to take)?
It doesn’t. But the amount of shots the individual takes are included in the stat, since it counts all shots taken while that player is on the ice. Your example is off because every player on the team would not have a 50% shot . If Richards’ line gets 0 shots on goal, and gives up 1 shot, he has a shot % of 0. If in game 2, the Richards’ line gets 20 shots on goal and gives up 10, he has a shot % of 66.7 because he was on the ice for 30 total shots, 20 of which were “positive” or for the Flyers. Nobody on the bench gets credit for those.
I will always be against those numbers because they are based off equations
They are equations exactly the same way plus/minus is an equation. And save percentage. And goals against average.
The rest of point B isn’t a critique of advanced stats, but of ALL stats. It’s entirely true that a high Corsi doesn’t equal success, since shot totals are often influenced by game situation (if a team is trailing in the third period, they will fire anything and everything at the net.) But the basic premise – if you take a shot on goal, you have the puck, and only you can score – is inarguable. Looking at game situation is important for Corsi and Fenwick, but it’s just as important to look at game situation for penalty minutes (something discussed on this thread already), goals (Chris’ argument that Boucher gives up weak goals), and points (how many were scored on the power play?).
C) Save percentage doesn’t say anything about line chemistry. What it does say about how good an individual is playing is: Dan Carcillo led all Flyers forwards with 60 GP by only giving up 1.73 goals per 60 minutes of his ice time. But while he was on the ice, Flyers goalies stopped 93.2% of all shots. Claude Giroux gave up 2.54 goals against per 60 minutes, but Flyers goalies only stopped 90.9% of all shots. Is Dan Carcillo 0.81 goals against per 60 minutes better defensively than Claude Giroux? Or did Carcillo have unexplicably lucky goaltending behind him (Leighton stopped 91.6% of all shots for the Flyers at 5-on-5)?
It shows you that Carcillo isn’t as good defensively as his plus/minus and GAON/60 suggest, since he got above-average (read: lucky) goaltending.
D) I will gladly walk you through what the chart is, but right now I have to catch a train. You have it right tho: #2 is Lukas Krajicek, who scored one goal himself last year. While he was on the ice, the other team scored 18 while the Flyers scored 8.
And yeah, I don’t see TOI on that chart. My apologies. I got that mixed up with behind the net.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
ty for the explanation
The difference between the Corsi stats and the other stats we know like save % in my experience with the stat is it is too arbitrary.
Like is typed above Carter is .525, Richards is .520, Hartnell is .517. When you compare those stats to the other people what do you get out of it. Are you saying Carter was better than Richards last year? (really? I don’t) Are you saying that Hartnell is only marginally better than Richards last year? (fuck no … Hartnell had such a god awful year last year)
Now if you take someone who has a save % of .925 and .900 you can see that the high guy is stopping on average more shots before giving up a goal. Yes you probably need to look at the bigger picture and shots could be coming from in the slot on every shot for the .900 but from severe angles for the .925 but for the most part if your job is to stop the most pucks you can then the high who on average is stopping the most is doing a better job.
And I would still like to be able to break down the stats I requested and really get to look at what they are (and lord how could I forget Lukas Kry… what is his name again?)
My theory
like I said before, that numbers only tell so much of the story. Coaching, leadership, gameplan, matchups, linemates, etc can all effect on a players stats. Stats dont prove as much in hockey as they do in other sports. Is there a meaning in them? Yes, because a player that can stay consistently high in these stats are usually the better players (like Carter and Richie). But its still not the end all and be all of a players worth.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
Linemates, to an extent are incorporated in some stats (qualteam). And you get an equally shortsighted view of a players worth by ignoring the statistics. Like I said to you below:
Numbers alone, nor your observations alone, are enough to get a true representation. But numbers definitely have a better memory than I do.
Is this the right room for an argument?
Not to mention you can pull numbers on who the player has played with along with their stats during that time, as Geoff has pointed out.
Is this the right room for an argument?
But all I’m saying is that in hockey, A player can do everything right, and end up with a shift with bad stats. Baseball and football cant do that(only exception is that if a QB gets a ball tipped and picked off).
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
Obviously. But over a season, and a career, if they put together bad shift after bad shift, that would make them a bad player, wouldn’t you a gree. It’s not like we are taking 1 period worth of stats, or 1 game. We take it season by season. Also when I pull the stats, I usually limit them to players with a certain amount of games played so the stats I’m comparing are legitimate to compare (this is an available function on behindthenet).
Is this the right room for an argument?
yes
a player that can stay consistently high in these stats are usually the better players
But I never said anything about people being bad players.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
I’m not sure what this has to do with our conversation. The point I’m trying to make with you is that you are ignoring the observations of statistics when you evaluate a player…Geoff and I do not ignore what we see, but rather try to further the knowledge from our own observations with the use of several different statistics. This is why we get frustrated.
Is this the right room for an argument?
I was saying that stats are good when they are consstant. A player with consistently hgh stats are usually better players. I’m mot saying gnore stats, I’m just saying that I don’t base my overall perception of a player off stats.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
That’s fine, and I will continue to try to further my perception of a player by providing myself with stats that will either reinforce what I have observed, or disagree with what I have observed. Either way, I like to take what I see with my eyes and compare it to what the stats are telling me. It helps to put the entire picture together.
Is this the right room for an argument?
This is all well and good, but when the numbers disagree with what you see what do you do?
Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.
I look at more stats to see if it could be do to the situation the player is put in (see Coburn), and sometimes that explains it…if not, that just makes me want to watch more games and pay more attention to a player, which is fun. In the end, assuming a large enough sample, the stats haven’t differed much from my opinion…but often it requires a lot more stat digging to get a more complete picture.
Is this the right room for an argument?
This is what I would do, but it was more a question to JpH89.
I would think it is very rare that a player is perceived to be good by eye, but actually compares poorly using several seasons of data.
Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.
What’s the difference between one bad shif in hockey and one bad drive in football, or one bad inning/game in baseball. That’s why you use a season’s worth of stats. And out of those 3, football has the smallest sample size by far…
Your counter argument is not very strong.
Is this the right room for an argument?
Just to cherry-pick on that analogy, though, and show the limit to stats. Baseball is the most easily quantifiable sport (say most number nerds), but even they couldn’t account with Cole Hamels last year, who had a season’s worth of bad inning and terrible luck (as evidenced by their equation that shows luck).
My real point: like any science, statistics are much more useful in analyzing what has happened than predicting what will happen.
I don’t understand what you’re saying here.
Baseball is the most quantifiable sport. But “number nerds” COULD account for Cole Hamels 2009 season, using “their equation that shows luck” (BABIP, btw) and looking at peripheral stats that would make Joe Morgan’s head explode.
Your real point is entirely correct, but statistics are a lot more useful in predicting what will happen than just watching a guy the previous year.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
They can say that Hamels got unlucky, but they can’t really say why. They just say “Here’s Hamels performance, removing factors we attribute to luck, which we consider an independent variable.” That is sort of equivalent to Einstein’s cosmological constant: we know something is there, but we don’t know what it is.
What I was trying to is that you can have a season’s worth of games with one bad inning. But just because they are patterned doesn’t mean the player is bad. And if we have to keep identifying new equations to account for things such as “luck,” there’s a limit to what we can say to know from these numbers.
That is sort of equivalent to Einstein’s cosmological constant: we know something is there, but we don’t know what it is.
But we DO know what it is. It’s luck. And honestly, those people who don’t like stats, don’t know stats, don’t understand stats, will say how stats can’t attribute luck. They’ll say how Cole is just unlucky (blooped to death), but us stat guys are able to say HOW unlucky he is, by looking at the number of hits the opposition got on balls they put into play.
We know what the normal window is for that, and Cole was drastically outside of it. At some point – whether it was June, August, October, or this year – Cole was going to get lucky and see his BABIP go down. But everyone who doesn’t know stats was shouting to trade him and he’s terrible and blaming the World Series, etc. Who was right? The guys who quantified luck.
And if we have to keep identifying new equations to account for things such as "luck," there’s a limit to what we can say to know from these numbers.
I disagree entirely. The more we can account for, the more we know. Using Cole again, we KNEW he’d have a better year, because he wasn’t bad last year, he was unlucky. We KNEW Ubaldo Jimenez would have a much more “normal” second half than the first half, because we quantified luck. Hence, we knew MORE as we identifying more equations.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
But, that’s the thing, they aren’t quantifying luck. They are accounting for statistical inconsistencies, unexpected outcomes, uncertainties, etc. Luck is just the term we are applying to the reason Hamels deviated from expectations, given that he kept most other quantifiers of performance constant.
We can identify that Cole Hamels isn’t getting run production, and that’s why his win total doesn’t match up with his other numbers, and he’ll likely start winning those games. But we don’t know why he was getting so much less production in the first place. We call that getting unlucky, but luck in that case only describes deviance from what you’d expect.
Basically, we agree. I’m just saying, because we build these models on data, and data is continuously coming in, the models will keep updating themselves. Which is why they make imperfect predictive models. We don’t know what luck is in any given case, and we don’t know when or where it will show up; we only know that, given a large enough small size, it will equal x.
First, no statistician cares about wins and losses. Rather, Hamels’ luck in 2009 was readily evident in his BABIP. Call it an inconsistency if you want, but it’s an outlier that is out of his control.
In the three years prior to ‘09, opponent’s BABIP was 0.291; 0.282; and 0.262. In 2009, it was 0.321. That’s an outlier beyond Hamels’ control. For those who don’t follow statistics, all they’d say is “that ball had eyes” or “that was a bloop single” or “he hustled down the line” or “a flare into no man’s land”.
What you described in won-loss records is why statisticians don’t care about win-loss records. That’s not unlucky, that’s just meaningless in terms of evaluating the player. Which is why I turn all Hulk whenever anyone says “but Leighton won games! Boucher didn’t!” No, Leighton didn’t win games. The Flyers won games.
Anyway, what the predictive value for Hamels’ 2009 was showed us that 2010 would be better. Without it, people would just have been guessing – without any rational reason why – what Hamels would do this year. Instead, we know now.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Really, I don’t disagree with you. All I’m saying is that luck is a made up term for what we can’t really quantify, and therefore we don’t know anything about the future based on stats, they just give us better predictive values.
I agree with that entirely.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 6, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
In baseball, a batter can do everything right – have a 9 pitch at bat, hit the ball square on the head, hit it through the hole between 1st and 2nd base – and still make an out. Or you can subscribe to the Bobby Cox theory that Citizens Bank Park is a sandbox that inflates homeruns and say Jayson Werth is not even close to the power hitter he is here.
So you don’t like batting average? Me neither. Want something that takes into account where a guy plays? Me too. And that’s why there are advanced stats (gasp!) to give a better representation of the guy.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you saying Carter was better than Richards last year?
Context. You don’t just use one stat.
The difference between the Corsi stats and the other stats we know like save % in my experience with the stat is it is too arbitrary.
It’s only arbitrary because you haven’t spent much time understanding them. Go to BehindtheNet.com
Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.
What is arbitrary about Corsi? It counts all shots fired in the course of the game. Whether that shot was blocked, went wide, was saved, or went in, for both teams. Hits are arbitrary. Shots are to some extent, but when you just compile them all, it’s a lot less arbitrary than just counting those shots that are on target.
What those three numbers tell you is that when all three of them were on the ice, the Flyers controlled the play. But since Carter started in the offensive zone 53.3% of the time and Richards 46.8% of the time, it’s clear that Richards did more with less. And that gets reinforced when you see that Richards ended his shifts in the offensive zone 50.1% of the time, while Carter ended there only 49.7%.
So again, Corsi (just like all stats) cannot stand on its own. The stats that try to be all encompassing (WAR or GVT) generally have some limits (pitching and defense, respectively).
As far as save percentage, it’s not as cut and dry as you think it is. Last year, Craig Anderson had a 0.917 save percentage and Ryan Miller had a 0.929 save percentage. Obviously, Ryan Miller had a fantastic year. But how much of that was in his control? Miller faced 83 fewer shots while his team was shorthanded than Miller, and Buffalo was damn good on the PK. In fact, Miller had the second highest save percentage while shorthanded in the entire league at 0.919. Anderson, who was shorthanded a lot more often, behind a much worse PK unit, only had a 0.879 save percentage while shorthanded.
Obviously, Ryan Miller did a better job, right? No, since we are effectively giving Miller credit for a) his team’s discipline; b) his team’s ability to kill those penalties they do take; and c) benefiting from some luck. Looking at just even-strength play – where the bias of the PK is removed – Anderson had a 0.926 save percentage while Miller had a 0.928. Was Miller better? Probably. But they were much closer than just “save percentage” says, evidenced by the fact that the Sabres put him in a better position to succeed.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
“Moderately civil” just means “preseason form,” M…
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by Travis Hughes on Oct 5, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Richards looked better on the ice when he played with carbomb though. especially early in the playoffs, when they were both men on a mission.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
I…You…
So your argument is: Carcillo made Richards better because he “looked better”? Well I just have no counter to that, you win.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
my argument
is that the coaching brass obviously thinks they work well together. Seriously, why else would they keep them together. I would like Powe with those two personally, but Im not the coach, so I’m not gonna argue with their decisions.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
Well that’s certainly one of them. But you have twice said that Carcillo makes Richards better.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s because you’re a nerd. I watch the game, not the numbers.
:)
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by Travis Hughes on Oct 5, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
You act like the game isn’t easily computable into an Xcel spreadsheet.
All the game IS is numbers, Travis!
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Not really
Obviously stats are important, but hockey is constant motion with the duties of 11 other players on the ice. Football and baseball are sports where stats prove more worth to the player. Now in terms of goalies, i would agree more. but I rarely look at stats on Forwards and D.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
Just because a game is in constant motion doesn’t mean what takes place on the ice can’t be quantified.
Break the game down into situations (5-on-5, 5-on-4, 4-on-5), break it down by where the play started (zone starts), where it ended (zone finishes), where the puck was (shots, blocked shots, missed shots), who was on the ice with him (qualteam), who he was facing (qualcomp), how often did their shots go in (shooting percentage), how often did shots against go in (save percentage), normalize their ice time (GFON/60, GAON/60), etc.
Can you look at those stats and answer definitively who is better: Ovechkin or Crosby? No. But you also can’t do that just by watching. What you can do with those stats is, without ever watching the Anaheim Ducks, is know that James Wisniewski played on the top pairing with Niedermeyer; that Todd Marchant was their defensive forward; Mike Brown was sheltered in the offensive zone and still couldn’t score, largely because he couldn’t control the play; Ryan Getzlaf would push the play forward more often than not; Saku Koivu benefited from lucky goaltending; and Bobby Ryan’s ridiculous ability to outshoot the opposition greatly benefits from his coach putting him out for offensive zone faceoffs – even though he isn’t great at staying there.
And I have no idea who the hell Mike Brown is.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
i agree…theres no stat for hustle moving the puck or clearing. Unless there is. then i am terribly wrong
There’s no stat for that in baseball either, yet people stopped ignoring stats and moved past ERA and batting average…
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, if you’re going to make THAT argument, I bet I can prove to you (numerically, of course) that Randy Jones is better than Rob Scuderi.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
Using JVT?
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You’ve got it!
God, I’ve missed hockey season.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
haha, YES!
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Geoff how did Richards stats, CORSI, FENWICK whatever you use look comparing the year he played with two legitmate top line players in Gagne and Knuble in 08’ compared to last year when he mostly played with only one. That is the point I am trying to make Richards was best with Gagne Knuble. He was a 22 and all there members of that line score 25 goals. Carcillo can’t score 25+ points nevermind the goals. Last year our Selke finalist Captain was a -2.
It has nothing to do with Carcillo personally I wouldn’t be happy if he was playing with Nodl or Powe either. None of those guys also have the offensive skills to be pair with the highly skilled forwards we have in our top 9. I am fine with any of them short term with injuries or whatever but full time to start the season I am apprehensive at best with it.
I love this sentence.
Geoff how did Richards stats, CORSI, FENWICK whatever you use
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by Travis Hughes on Oct 5, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I missed a comma I can write anything without Grammar check and I don’t get paid to post here so I am not going to triple check my grammar.
i thank You Homer for most this amazing
club:for the leaping feisty spirits of agitators
and an orange true team of defensemen; and for everyone
who is signed who is playing who is yes
who is Richards who is CORSI who is FENWICK
who is whatever you use
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
by mikefive on Oct 5, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don’t care for them or care to understand them I just take Geoff’s word for it. I learned not to argue with numbers as lesson young JpH88 has yet to learn.
FUCK NUMBERS!!!!!!!!
.
By the way, Im pretty sure Geoff hates me specifically because I dont like basing player performance based on stats.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
FUCK NUMBERS!!!!!!!!
Not without protection.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
By the way, Im pretty sure Geoff hates me specifically because I dont like basing player performance based on stats.
I would say it’s more b/c you choose to completely ignore the story they are trying to tell you while at the same time you make claims about Matt Walker that are factually incorrect, and then choose to ignore those facts b/c they don’t agree with you.
The fact is, none of us here can possibly watch enough hockey to be an expert on every player. Heck I’ve played hockey for 20+ years, and I know I can’t notice what every player brings to the table just by watching them…even if I saw every single game of their life. So stats help me to get a clearer picture. Numbers alone, nor your observations alone are enough to get a true representation. But numbers definitely have a better memory than I do.
Is this the right room for an argument?
well, I based walker off of what I’ve seen and heard about him from before. now that i’ve seen him as a Flyers, I dot like him, but i was at least willing to give him a chance, more then what most people here were willing to do. Same with Carcillo, last offseason, everyone was writing him off, but I wasn’t (one of the very, very few who wasn’t). And no matter if you like him or hate him, he had a very good year for us last year, yet still people want to write him off, and for no other reason then either they dont like fighters, or that he was the guy who they traded Upshall for. Im more willing to give players a chance, obviously not all career stats are gonna agree with that, but If I think a player is useful to a team, then I’d rather that player over a worse player.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
That’s fine, but see what Geoff block quoted, that’s my point, and this is why Geoff (and myself) get frustrated. We are willing to give players a chance, but we are also willing to look at the entire picture (our observations, other fans observations, scouting reports, and stats). You are only willing to see what your eyes see, and you blind yourself to the other information. Not only is that being unfair to the player, it also makes for an irritating dialogue when you refuse to accept something that gives you an endless amount of “observations” (numbers) in the discussion about a player.
Is this the right room for an argument?
But I didnt blindly say anything. I said that Carcillo must do something that the coaches like if the put him on the top line. If anything, M was the one speaking blindly, when he say that Carcillo shoudn’t play on the top line with Richards because M doesnt like Carcillo as a player. I see what I see. look back on game threads from last year, I like Coburn, but I knew he had a very crappy year. I like Pronger, but I knew he had a bad last two games in the finals. I like Richie and Carter, But I knew that they went through slumps last season. I like Hartnell, but I knew he had a down year. But my point is, that I didnt need stats to know all that. I was able to tell just by watching the games. In not going around saying “what ever I say is 100% true and there is no alternative.” If I write something, I assume that most people understand that its my opinion. When I say a person looks like crap(Backlund for example) thats just my opinion from what I’ve seen in game play. But, I never saw him play for the phantoms, but when i look at the stats on AHL.com, they list him as the #27 goalie in GAA. So I assume that at best he more along the lines of average then great in the AHL.
Obviously, my opinions are way different then what you and Geoffs opinions are. I’m fine with that, and I’m more then open for discussion about them. But, it’s not really fair to say that I’m blind and not open to different views because of that. Now, I do argue my opinions more, but isnt that just the same as what your doing with me now? Im not MarioD, ya know :)
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
I fully understand your opinion and my observation of the game I come the exact opposite conclusion about Carcillo. He is good on the forecheck and plays hard but he can’t get out of the way fast enough on the cycle and he is not a scoring threat I don’t see that changing you don’t learn how to be a sniper at this point in your career.
I was simply trying to answer why Geoff gets frustrated with you. I never jumped on this thread to validate or disagree with your point of view with Carcillo. You said:
By the way, Im pretty sure Geoff hates me specifically because I dont like basing player performance based on stats.
And then I responded. You are always entitled to see what you see. As we are entitled to agree with you or disagree with you based on what we see, and statistics. I was just simply answering why I think Geoff gets frustrated with you.
Is this the right room for an argument?
To follow up…I often get frustrated with you b/c you often miss the point I am making, or turn what I’m actually saying in to something else. This was basically a response to why Geoff gets frustrated, and you saying fuck numbers, nothing about your opinion of Carcillo.
Is this the right room for an argument?
but you also have to realize that those two line were jokes. I’m sure geoff doesn’t hate me, and we agree just as much as we dissagree. The only person I was seriously jumping on was M. The only reason I was responding to you and geoff it was added discousion. I personally wasn’t fusterated by you guys, or chris, or todd. Seriously, I don’t thnk I typed anyting wrong to get you guys upset, but im not gonna change my opinion because it does.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
Yeah, I don’t hate you at all.
We’re like two icebergs floatin’ in Antarctica: We cool.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
We’re like two icebergs floatin’ in Antarctica: We cool.
I call for a ban on that saying. Anyone second that motion.
Seconded.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 6, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Sigh…
I don’t think Geoff hates you, I just explained why there is the confrontation in our responses. I get your jokes…I’m just saying why you will see the stats thrown back at you, b/c they help complete the picture of a player. I don’t expect to change your opinion, nor am I upset with what you said…just frustrated with the continuing misunderstanding of my points (hence why I never referred to Geoff hating you, just getting frustrated).
To summarize:
1) Not upset
2) Stats + Observation = more complete picture
3) We all have differing opinions which is why this site exists
4) If you say you don’t need stats to tell you certain things, I will then point out any statements you make that appear to be incorrect, and try to prove they are incorrect with stats and/or my observations
Is this the right room for an argument?
Hartnell’s stats will actually tell you he had a year more to his career averages this year, and the prior season he outperformed his typical level of performance. And that hits on my point that if you ignore your eyes and only look at stats, or if you only use your eyes and ignore stats, chances are, you are missing something.Sso the more information you can have at your finger tips, the better you can do to get the whole picture.
Is this the right room for an argument?
Just to go off this:
It’s not that I’m unwilling to give Walker a chance, it’s that I don’t need to. Those who only go off what they see or hear are missing a lot of important things. Just like those who only go off numbers are missing a lot of important things. But I’m able to read the same things you are, but augment that by looking at stats to know how he was used and how he performed.
So where you’re willing to see how good he is, I already have a pretty good idea how good he is. Could he be better? Certainly. But I have a more accurate and quantifiable way of knowing what he is, and therefore, what to expect.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Numbers alone, nor your observations alone are enough to get a true representation. But numbers definitely have a better memory than I do.
This.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
First, Richards started in the offensive zone 40.2% of the time in 2008, and 46.8% of the time in 2009. He was used a lot differently, quite possibly because of his linemates.
He also faced a lot stiffer competition this year (more than doubling his qualcomp score) while seeing his teammates be 75% as good. So while his Corsi was better this year than last, he did it with a much greater opportunity to succeed.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I think people will dispute the “not a good enough player,” on which the argument hangs. Yes, he is occasionally embarrassing, but that’s what pests are; it’s almost the crux of their use.
With what information? His statistics? Playing on the edge and annoying the hell out of other players is what a pest does, not completely leave the reservation. Carcillo is not even in the top twenty of productive pests in this league. Hartnell is a pest and one of the best.
Just Call Me "M"!
How can you say he’s not in the top twenty productive pests when he led the NHL in penalties drawn last year? (I didn’t check at the end of the season to confirm he was still leading, but he was for a long while)
Where is that stat? And taking the Colton Orr’s of the league off the ice is not really the definition of the role.
Just Call Me "M"!
Penalties drawn: http://www.behindthenet.ca/2009/5_on_5_pens.php?sort=8&mingp=&mintoi=10
No matter who he took off the ice, he created a power play for the Flyers.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Not even close. He took less than half the amount of the league leader. In fact, he took the 6th most on the team, same as Kimmo Timonen.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Penalties != penalty minutes. The fact that he has a lowish number of penalties and a high number of minutes just means that he fought/got misconducts a lot.
Because that counts fights, misconducts, coincidental minors, etc.
The amount of times he put his team down a man was 17. He was tied for 36th in minor penalties, but even they include coincidental minors.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Tied with Kimmo who sees significantly more ice time than Carcillo.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Right. He still took fewer penalties per 60 minutes of ice time than both Hartnell and Briere, and the same as Powe and Syvret.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think anyone is saying that Carcillo doesn’t take a bunch of penalties, only that he draw a large portion more. And, since the Flyers are on special teams than on 5-on-5, this is good.
I’m willing to put money on Carcillo drawing less penalties this season
Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.
Same here.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Even if refs know he dives, that’s a tough call to make in the moment on the ice. And just look at that disparity: +25.
His whole tactic to draw penalties in the play offs was based around embellishing. I don’t imagine that will work for much longer
Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.
That would be an interesting over/under to bet on.
Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.
Actually, it wouldn’t. Jordin Tootoo took the most diving penalties last year, with 2.
Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.
I will be fascinated to see how it works out. He was phenomenal at that last season, not good at it in the playoffs.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
http://www.behindthenet.ca/2009/5_on_5_pens.php?sort=8&mingp=&mintoi=10
And yeah, Brown beat him. But still. That’s exactly what you want from your pest. And it’s not like he’s Donald Brashear out there, he’s got some level of offensive skill. He obviously has some issues with keeping his tempers and emotions under control, but he’s a useful player.
Brashear in his day was a legitimate heavyweight fighter and had a completely different role for which he was proficient.
Just Call Me "M"!
I know, I was just coming up someone in recent Flyers history who was known as a goonish type without any offensive skill. Not trying to say Carcillo is a great fighter or anything. And I used to love Brash, dont get me wrong.
That is just it, he is a tweener in his roles. He is not a legitimate fighter and not a legitimate player with pest qualities. You might not like the Shelley signing but he does exactly what you got him for and in the East with a lot of legitimate fighters you need Shelley in the regular season lineup.
Just Call Me "M"!
Are you considering a pest to be a fighter? Carbomb isnt a great fighter, and its good we have Shelley for that role. But whatever you want to call what Carcillo does, he’s good at it. “Pest” or not.
see barnaby, matt and avery, sean. i’d say carcillo fits in the pest category quite nicely. i look forward to the carbomb wreaking havoc again this yr (during the reg season).
And looking at the stats, he isn’t even in the same league as Avery or Barnaby. That is my point. A pest just doesn’t make a fool of himself he contributes to the outcome of the game.
Just Call Me "M"!
i take it back. carcillo has averaged .142 goals per game compared to barnaby’s .135
i grew up watching barnaby in upstate ny and i’d say theyre very similar.
and both are total sleezes. good thing rod the bod knows how to hold his own: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RalYe_4WTE
Absolutely not a fighter but a lot of people I thought you were among them consider him some sort of a fighter. I just don’t think he has the wits for the pest job.
Just Call Me "M"!
You mean a douchebag, I mean, a pest like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bb4WaZMVtyE
Sarauj, Latvija!
but name a good hevyweaight in the NHL right now? Players like Orr and Shelley and Brah dont play consistant minuetss, let alone play consistant games. The Carcillos, Lappys, Otts, Downies, and Avery’s are the new NHL fighters, who can fight, score, skate, etc…
Living in the past isnt gonna get the Flyers a ring, adopting to the new era will. I will always like the Brahs years and the Richardson years, but that time has passed us by.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
You are completely missing the role of the fighter and their place on the regular season roster. At this very minute in the division there is Boogard, Gilles, Godard and Clarkson. These are guys that the players you mentioned can not handle. If you think turtling up to a guy like Colton Orr is bringing a ring to the city your nuts.
Just Call Me "M"!
no but it did bring us a 9 minute power play right? i think we will be able to find a comfortable mix of using shelley and carcillo appropriately given the matchups.
29 Penalty minutes against the Caps in which they scored 3 goals during the course of the power plays. Final Score 8-2. Remember that melt down
Just Call Me "M"!
Which was a bullshit case that everyone’s aware of. That’s like pointing to his (still) unexplained toss-out from the Sabres game and saying “See! He can’t control himself!”
The Flyers management, along with several others in the league, should have made a case during the CBA negotiations with the refs that much more accountability and consistency is needed in the calls.
He sucker punched a guy in the face who didn’t have his gloves off, then he proceeded to melt down. Regardless of how you saw the infraction the fact is he was involved and it cost the game. I am of the opinion that losing a meaningless regular season game at the hands of sending a message is completely justified, but this case was completely different.
Just Call Me "M"!
If those teams want to wast a roster spot with a crappy player, thats fine with me. also:
turtling up to a guy like Colton Orr
you mean when he drew a 4 min powerplay? Thats the smart thing to do, weather or not you like the play, you have to agree that he did help us win that game.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
I really don’t want to insult you but sometimes in life having the better end result isn’t the most honorable way to live your life. He should not be getting involved with Orr and there are so many meaningless regular season games having one player in the line up that serves the purpose of nuclear weapons keeps the game honest. What is wrong with the game is teams having chickenshit guys like Carcillo taking ridiculous reckless liberties.
Just Call Me "M"!
A) no game is meaningless in the regular season. You cant argue that because we were 1 extra loss away from not making the playoffs.
B) He didnt get involved with Orr, Orr checked him from behind while Carcillo was heading towards the bench. Carcillo probably could have fought him and would have negated any power play, but he did the smart thing and took a high stick of Orr in the mouth for an extra penalty. I’d rather him “turtle” for the good of the team(because i could give a rats ass wether or not other teams fans hate us), then stoop down to the goon level of players like Orr.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
He ran his mouth and then Orr stuffed his glove in it and he did nothing. if that is the logic of how you live your life, well so be it. And this has nothing to do with the fans. It has to do with the other men you stand next to and go to war with.
Just Call Me "M"!
Absolutely not the point. real world doesn’t apply to the sport of hockey where fighting is acceptable and tactical. There is a totally different culture on the ice that if you have not played the sport for real stakes you would not understand. Carcillo is seen as a boob among most hockey people not a hero for suckering a guy into taking a penalty.
Just Call Me "M"!
He’s not “living his life” He’s playing a sport.. He’s getting paid almost a million dollars a year, and I’m not paying him that much money (via ticket/merchandise/TV watching) to “Defend his honour” when there’s a game to win.
Orr’s job is to beat people up, the agitators play on that to get them to do something stupid. It’s a psychological game between the two.
Even on the “men going to war” kick, it’s NOT an individual game. It’s a team game. So what’s really “being a man”. Fighting, proving you’re tough, and your team loses… or getting the piss beaten out of you, draw the penalty, and let your team win?
Even by your own logic, you’re wrong.
You completely missed the comment. The guy living his life is JpH89, not Carcillo. If Jph89 feels that turtling is cool because they won, he has never stood in a locker room with other guys who look for dignity over power play minutes. And on the “going to war with men” kick, it doesn’t show the other guys on your team that you are honorable by turtling to get power plays. In hockey, a message is sent two ways, one standing up to your opponent to show solidarity and honor to for your teammates and your teammates killing off the power play to show that they appreciated you taking a couple punches to the face for the team. I will give you an example to chew on. In the 2009 playoffs the Rangers were kicking the shit out of the Caps as a unified group and killing off any penalty Avery got. And he was getting a lot of them but the Caps were scared to death of him and the Rangers were backing his play. Then Tortarella benched him and the team fell a part because there unified rally was now aimless and the Caps used this team confusion to turn the series around.
Just Call Me "M"!
Dignity is one thing, and in the appropriate time, you fight. In other times, you take the penalty. If you’re saying that it should never be turtling, then you shouldn’t have an agitator.
That’s the entire role of the pest is to be the guy that starts something. If he’s constantly starting fights, and then joining them, he’s not playing the agitator role correctly, he’s being a fighter.
You can argue honor all you want, and it’s a concept I support generally, but the entire point of a pest is to get the other guy to do something stupid and then not respond. Cross-checking, high sticking, etc.
The Rangers example truly lies with the coach for not correctly letting the players know the point.
Carcillo was traded for Scottie Upshall……IMO that’s where the hate comes from
"Can Geico really save you 15% or more on your car insurance? Is Mike Green really a forward in defenseman's clothing" Follow me on Twitter!>
Thank God for NHL11. =) Guerin in.
I like them both. I honestly wish there were room for Carcillo and Guerin…
Flyers fan since 1983. I missed the good stuff.
Now I begin to hold my breath that they aren’t rushing Pronger back too fast.
"Gentlemen, you can't fight in here, this is the war room."
by Grp_Cpt_Lionel_Mandrake on Oct 5, 2010 1:29 PM EDT reply actions
Wow that was a close one. A nobody 29 year old goaltender with no background made it through the waiver wilderness to take a roster spot from a kid that might be able to prove he is a professional hockey goaltender.
Just Call Me "M"!
Riopel has indeed been sent to the ECHL. Tye McGinn was sent back to juniors, too. Updated the story.
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Erik Ersberg
I was thinking if someone was to claim a goalie, they’d take Ersberg. Heck I’d prob take Ersberg over Backlund.
I have lost track with who I was talking to, so for the record: I resolve to say I am not a Carcillo Fan and don’t think he is an asset on the team. Nanny Nanny Boo Boo!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just Call Me "M"!
haha, very nice.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Ryan Potulny placed on waivers...
It would never happen, but I’d rather have him on this roster than Nodl. Cheaper cap hit, 32 points last season in the NHL, 2:08 of PK per game in 09-10. Geoff, DLJr, feel free to take me to task for this one.
Regardless, I’ve always liked Potulny. Hope he catches on somewhere.
Potulny can’t fill the role Nodl can. Nodl is here as PK 4th line guy role player Lappy type, without the fighting or the point production. Potulny needs to play in a scoring role and he is too small do so on this team which all ready contains more skilled small guys in Giroux and Danny B. He will be good on some B team like the Islanders.
He’s basically the same size as Nodl, only a little smaller. Gave Edmonton lots of PK time in 09-10, although I’m not sure how successful he was. But he at least has experience as a penalty killer.
He’s not a defensive liability, either – in fact, he did a decent job pushing the play from a zone start/zone finish standpoint for a bad team, with bad linemates. I’d be interested to see some Corsi stats, however.
Plus, he has the scoring touch that Nodl may eventually find. Basically, he’s already what we’re hoping Nodl develops into. I’d feel alot more confident with him as an occasional top-nine forward than Nodl, and I feel he could give similar contributions on the 4th line or as a PK-er.
I have always liked Potulny as well.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Ha, he is my Nodl. I really think in the right situation, he could absolutely flourish.
But looking at him as objectively as I can, I really do think he could fill Nodl’s projected role better than Nodl can at this point in his career. Plus, he’s cheaper.
I’d have to look into it more, but I always did like Potulny.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn’t respond b/c I love Nodl, and I don’t have a good counter argument. The only argument I have is if he is being waived by a terrible team, how good can he really be? Which is not the strongest of arguments. I’ll do some stats digging tomorrow when I have more time, but it appears you already have done that.
Is this the right room for an argument?
Oilers are terribly managed too, don’t forget.
Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.
Bingo.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I was shocked when I saw they let him go. Maybe it had something to do with the infusion of high-profile young forward talent that was expected to show up this year?
Yeah, like I said, it’s not a strong argument for anything. All I could do is speculate that maybe he doesn’t have the right attitude or work ethic, etc. But that argument would be weak at best. I want to see what Nodl can do b/c I like him more than Potulny, but that is a personal opinion. If you told me Potulny was the guy, I’d be fine with it, and hoping that Nodl would be moved elsewhere to have a shot in another organization. So like I said, I don’t really have any quality counter to your idea.
Is this the right room for an argument?
actually, he was waived by the ’hawks, not the oilers. but yeah he did score some goals on a horrible oilers team last year
Yeah, I like two teams, get over it!
No, I have absolutely no clue what I would do if they meet in the finals!
Go Flyers and Hawks!
Good call, I forgot they had signed him to a 2 way contract. So my only argument would change, why waive an extremely cheap ($500K) player that can pot a few goals and take some time on the PK? Unless he wasn’t going to see any real time on that lineup. Still not a strong case to choose Nodl over Potulny.
Is this the right room for an argument?
It amazes me ...
All the comments about Carcillo. I mean really – the guy made the roster, so he was gonna play SOMEWHERE. He seemed to play well with Richie last season, inasmuch as it looked like Richie was a calming influence, and Carbomb could stand up for his captain and winger.
SPEAKING OF WINGERS, I find it far more interesting that Carter is playing wing on that line. We all knew that Briere would start the season with Hartnell and Leino. But speculation about the other two ‘scoring’ lines has been rampant – suddenly nothing is said about Giroux centering JVR and Zherdev? Carter playing alongside Carcillo with Richards? I still would argue that having Carter center JVR and Giroux makes for a potent offense with decent backchecking abilities as well – and that would send Zherdev to RW on Richards line, not a bad combination as well.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
I think people:
a) Like Giroux as a center, as that’s where he can best dish the puck and create space; and
b) Like Giroux with Zherdev, after seeing them in the preseason.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I like the idea of JVR G and Z on a line. toss JVR in front of the net and let G and Z skate circles around the defense, shoot, and let JVR bang in the rebounds. Backchecking could turn into an issue though.
Hexwall.
I just want geroux to have a stedy spot. They play him at to many dffrent positons. One game he’s at center, the next he’s at rw, the next at lw.
Flyers 10-11 season slogan: "Remember Emery?"
I entirely agree. I’d much rather he be in the middle, but if Carter can’t play wing…
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 5, 2010 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes – I also agree, Giroux’s skills scream ‘center’. But since Carter’s desire/ability to play wing is questionable, I’d much rather see the two of them paired so they can share responsibilities rather than have them separated. And I definitely feel like Carter’s shooting ability would benefit more from Giroux’s passing than Zherdev’s – although if they played well in preseason together, why not give it a whirl and see if Zherdev is the real deal?
I guess I just can’t wait to see what really rolls out against the Pens.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Oct 6, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Could/should this be stickied somewhere on the main page?
Just without the comments perhaps. It’s pretty useful, and it would help those who dislike the numbers because they don’t understand where they come from and what they mean exactly.
Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.
carcillo
i hope richards is happy with his boy on a line with him and carter. at least it will guarantee him p.k. time
I’m not leaping into the validity and fun debate over CORSI/FENWICK etc.
But what do the coaches use?
You can talk about the baseball stats, but what you hear in the postgame conferences are “Well we knew _ hits lefties real good, so we went to him.” Or “the book on _ was he bats over .300 in _ Park.”
So, post 2003 and “Moneyball” , have you seen or heard (beyond the blogging community) of coaches or GMs using these statistics in their player evaluations?
What they say on TV and what they use can be two completely different things. I think most viewers eyes would glaze over if a coach started using advanced stats to explain game decisions. And it may be more of a tool for GM’s than coaches when bringing in players anyway. But either way, even in those examples you used, there are stats behind the statements. So, at some point, there are stats coming in to play. And obviously on a day to day basis, there will always be the valid argument of going with the hot hand, or hot bat, or hot ____ b/c no life time of stats, or human observations can perfectly predict the players performance in the next game.
Anyway, I digress. Point is, we don’t know what the coaches use. My guess is, it’s a mix of some form of kept stats and observations. What they tell us in the pressers is a dumb downed, simplified version of what they use so we, the common fan, will have an easier time following their logic.
Is this the right room for an argument?
Well, first, those two quotes you gave are about batting average, which has been the staple of baseball statistics since newspapers published box scores. That isn’t exactly advanced stats to say “His batting average is .300 at PNC Park”.
Second, Corsi was invented by a Buffalo Sabres goalie coach. But even still, does it provide legitimacy if coaches use advanced stats? Do they even use stats at all? “Well, we decided to play James van Riemsdyk in the Finals over Dan Carcillo because he scored 15 goals this year, but Carcillo only scored 12.” Or “We decided to to give Johan a start because Brian has a 0.898 save percentage so far this year…” I’d venture no.
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 6, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah the examples were illustrative more of commentary/coaching interviews than a representative sampling of statistics.
The question was really have any of us heard of front office staff citing the new advanced metrics? Right now it’s a Buffalo Sabres goalie coach. Which would make sense if you equate the Sabres to the A’s in a “we’re a small market franchise and have to dig harder for value since no FA in his right mind would come here on purpose” kind of way.
Again, I’m not arguing the validity of these stats or even have a position staked out. Just curious.
I haven’t, no.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 6, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Bruce Boudrou or however it’s spelled doesnt use any stats. He was quoted as saying he had no clue what corsi was and proceeded to ask everyone what it was
Bruce Boudreau (not sure how it’s spelled either) is also not a good coach.
I don’t know whether that’s your point or not, but Boudreau is not a good coach.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Oct 7, 2010 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
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