Tuesday Morning Fly By: Busy Day Yesterday
by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 8:46 AM EST
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PrintToday's open discussion thread, complete with your daily dose of Philadelphia Flyers news and notes...
- The Flyers signed Claude Giroux to a three-year $11.25 million extension: [BSH] [Philly Sports Daily] [Frequent Flyers] [CSNPhilly] [The700Level] [Puck Daddy] [Daily News] [delcotimes.com]
- The Flyers also fired Phantoms Head Coach Greg Gilbert: [BSH] [Frequent Flyers] [PostStar.com] [Daily News] [Philly Sports Daily]
- Tim McManus is all over the Gilbert firing, including an interview with Paul Holmgren [PostStar.com], stats showing this is a franchise-worst slide for both the Phantoms and Adirondack [PostStar.com], and saying how the firing means there can be no more excuses [PostStar.com]
- Eric Wellwood was sent back to Adirondack, and we all feel sorry for him: [BSH] [PostStar.com] [Philly Sports Daily]
- Peter Laviolette hopes James van Riemsdyk feels a little "burn" from being scratched: [Philly Sports Daily]
- Andreas Nodl gets some love, with quotes from Laviolette and a story from Frank Seravalli: [Daily News]
- Unfortunately, the fantastic NA weekly prospect report got buried yesterday. But Brendan Ranford and Nic Riopel shine (at least in comparison) once again: [Flyers Faithful]
- A rundown on the Flyers prospects from the premiere prospect web site: [Hockey's Future]
- The transcript of Peter Laviolette's conference call: [Flyer Files]
- Frank Seravalli argues that Fred Shero should be in the Hall of Fame, and it's a really good read: [Daily News]
- A great look at what would have happened if the Lightning traded for Tomas Vokoun when Jay Feaster (former GM) says he was offered him: [Houses of the Hockey]
- Happy 40th birthday Bill Guerin!
- Lastly, a quick, unusual look at how spending money on goaltenders isn't paying off through the first month: [The Copper & Blue]
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Celebrating in China
Posted this earlier but IT"S A CELEBRATION!!!!
"Success is not the result of spontaneous combustion. You must first set yourself on fire." --Fred Shero--
by Zachswider on Nov 9, 2010 9:31 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i think i have those shame jeans
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Nov 9, 2010 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
So — according to cap geek — $8 million left for next year.
Presumable Boucher gone O’Donnell retired. 7 Ds and 2 Gs signed. Meaning that $8M left to sign a minimum of 4 forwards. Leino and Zherdev UFA while Nodl, Carcillo, Powe and Carter are RFA.
Everyone should go play around on CapGeek here:
It’s fun, and you can see how the Flyers can re-sign Carter and Leino, but it requires waiving Matt Walker (which should have already been done), putting Laperriere on LTIR (which is not an optimum scenario), getting fantastic deals for both Leino and Carter, and carrying all of Nodl, Powe, Testwuide, and Gustafsson. And you still have no room for call ups.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 9:29 AM EST up reply actions
A D-Man is going to get moved before the offseason either Carle or Coburn IMO. We can’t afford to lose more scoring especially the young scoring. We have the highest paid blue-line. Someone has to step up from the farm system on the blueline to fill that spot with an entry level contract. Can Pronger carry Bartulis or Kimmo carry Gustufsson? I think it can be done. Plus there is Marshall, Bourdoun, and whole bunch of other youngsters down there they have to move up on D. We win when we score. I think Wellwood can fill in for Zherdev but we don’t have enough scoring in the farm system to make up for the losing two of Zherdev, Leino and Carter.
Then why did the Flyers sign Coburn and trade for Meszaros this offseason? And if you are here advocating that a d-man gets moved, why are you so big on acquiring Meszaros?
I don’t understand this contradiction.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
Because this season we can afford to stack the D and go for broke!
You have to take your shot when you can especially when it doesn’t cost too much of the future only a 2nd round pick. Next year is next year like I said so much can happen and still can happen the Lappy injury, Leighton’s back injury the cap can still go up. Who the hell knows? Can’t play it too safe especially Pronger and Kimmo only have so many super star years left.
Obviously I you don’t want to pull a Blackhawks and go risk everything with crazy signings or trading Giroux or even JVR. I like what Homer has done. Aggressive but not super overly aggressive putting all the chips on the table for a one year shot.
Because this season we can afford to stack the D and go for broke!
Aggressive but not super overly aggressive putting all the chips on the table for a one year shot.
So go for broke, but don’t put all the chips on the table? I still don’t get it. Do you want to stack the D for one year, then break them up or do you want to maintain the D for multiple years?
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 10:51 AM EST up reply actions
The don’t think the D is sustainable at this price long term. Because we can’t afford to keep losing forwards. Look at the Farm System we have goalies and D-Men very little in terms of NHL ready forwards. We drafted all those D-Men to start filling in. If one of those guys Gustufsson, Marshall, Bourdon, Bertlisson, Letourvi (ignore spelling errors) should be able to fill in a top 4 role next season.
If the cap goes up big time ESPN deal or something then sure keep everyone but O’Donnell if not move Coburn or Carle or Meszaros and promote one of those Phantoms.
We can afford to see who fits best and what happens with the cap and injuries before making any descisions. This is not the NBA shedding Salary is easy.
So go for broke, but don’t put all the chips on the table?
What I meant by not put all the chips on table is that is we could have traded Carter or Giroux and and got an older player rental in another Pronger type trade, or overpaid for Nabokov. That is putting all the chips on the table. The team could have been better this year yes but that would have cost too much of the future. The Meszaros move doesn’t cost too much of the future just Gagne an older guy with injury issues we were probably going to lose anyway. Mes still leaves us young and flexible come the 2011 offseason. Plenty of options.
haha, it’s funny that Meszaros – with 3 years and $20 million – leaves the Flyers flexible, but Gagne – with 0 years and $0 due – doesn’t.
And if you’re saying that Meszaros doesn’t cost too much of the future based on Gagne, you’re not only ignoring the second round pick, you’re also ignoring whichever young, inexpensive defenseman you are advocating to be moved.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
Gagne doesn’t leave any flexibility because Gagne would be gone. That is it.
Meszaros leaves flexibility in terms of options. We can pick who we want to keep based on this season between Zherdev, Leino, Carter, Meszaros, Carle, Coburn. Pick 4.
You forget going into this season Leino was still sort of an unknown. Could he continue to play like the playoffs was that just a fluke can he stay healthy etc.. etc…
So far it looks like Carter, Leino as the two forwards. Who should stay as the two D-Men I like Mez and Coburn best so far this season but there is still a long way to go.
The young D-Man I am advocating to be moved is either Carle, Coburn or Meszaros, None of them are inexpensive. So all Mez cost of the future was a 2nd round pick. A small price IMO compared to the Giroux or JVR or something else.
You are mixing in players under contract and those not under contract. And no, I’m not forgetting Leino was an unknown, especially since I was one who tried tempering expectations for him.
But how does a guy who the Flyers can choose to bring back not leave flexibility? Zherdev and Leino are UFA, just like Gagne. So how do those two leave flexibility, but Gagne doesn’t?
Again, how can you say “all Mez cost of the future was a 2nd round pick”? If the Flyers move Coburn, there’s a 25-year old (read: same age as Meszaros) gone because the Flyers can’t afford to keep other players. Bam, he costs more than a second round pick. But I’m sure it’s nice to keep throwing out Giroux and JVR’s names for these hypothetical “They could have been traded! That’s the future!” scenarios, but they don’t make any sense.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
Because it is unlikely we could bring Gagne back on based his contract value. You also wouldn’t get anything in return for him because he would walk away UFA. And if you kept him this year that removes two of the options I listed, Zherdev and Mez, both of who are younger.
Again, how can you say "all Mez cost of the future was a 2nd round pick"? If the Flyers move Coburn, there’s a 25-year old (read: same age as Meszaros)
I don’t know how else to explain this. In your scenario the Flyers keep Gagne this year lose him next year and keep Coburn and Carle. There is no options there. The team still has two of the 3 D-Men I listed without every seeing Mez play or if he can outplay Coburn or Carle. Mez doesn’t cost you Coburn or Carle he replaces Coburn or Carle as an upgrade.
Having Mes and Zherdev gives the Flyers more options come 2011 and more depth this season. It also leaves the team younger with more players who don’t have extreme injury history and concussion problems. Mez also solidifies the 3rd pairing and reducing Kimmo and Pronger TOI the major goal of the offseason.
Also the Flyers might be able get that pick back or more for Carle or Coburn or Meszaros in the offseason deal anyway so there is really no cost to the future and a potential gain. Win Win.
Because it is unlikely we could bring Gagne back on based his contract value.
What is his contract value that the Flyers wouldn’t be able to bring him back? You keep saying how little value he has, why is he too expensive to bring back?
You also wouldn’t get anything in return for him because he would walk away UFA.
You mean like the Flyers won’t get anything in return for Leino or Zherdev because they would walk away UFA? I fail to see how Gagne is any less flexible than those two.
I’m not even going to blockquote your next paragraph because it makes no sense. In my scenario, the Flyers have MORE options, since they can still trade for Meszaros (or not), they can re-sign Gagne (or not), they can keep Coburn (or not), and they can keep Carle (or not). Yet you say there are no options? Why? You’re now saying you can keep Meszaros, Coburn, and Carle. Or not. All I’m doing is ADDING an option with Gagne.
Second, how does Meszaros “replace” Coburn or Carle as an upgrade if a) He isn’t playing better than them; b) All three of them are kept; and/or c) He can’t replace somebody if he then needs to be replaced. That’s just simple: He can’t replace Parent and Coburn/Carle the following year, since then HE needs to be replaced.
Your third paragraph is the same thing: Zherdev and Meszaros do not give you more options than Gagne and (insert free agent I’d rather have than Meszaros). How do you not get that? Saying that the team is younger with fewer players with injury history doesn’t mean they have more options. At all.
Again, you can’t say there is “really no cost to the future and a potential gain” because there could just as easily be a substantial cost to the future and a substantial loss. Did you see what the Flyers got for Gagne? But no, keep saying that your optimistic hope that there is no cost to the future is fact. Whether you’re right or wrong, you can’t say that now because you don’t know.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
All your options are hypothetical and highly assumptive and would lead to unknowns going into next season.
Still trade for Mezaros
Assuming he is still available or wasn’t traded to someone else. Then we would have an unknown quantity next season.
they can re-sign Gagne (or not)
They can still do that as Gagne is still a UFA. Trading him doesn’t change anything, technically we can assume he is pissed and won’t resign but again that is another assumption.
Second, how does Meszaros "replace" Coburn or Carle as an upgrade if a) He isn’t playing better than them
Then you keep Coburn and Carle and trade Meszaros either way come 2011 we still have 2 of those 3 but at least we saw what Meszaros brings to this team.
You mean like the Flyers won’t get anything in return for Leino or Zherdev because they would walk away UFA? I fail to see how Gagne is any less flexible than those two.
Because Gagne’s larger cap hit means you don’t get to see what Zherdev and Meszaros bring to the table. You don’t get two options in Zherdev and Mezaros you just get one option in Gagne. 2 is more flexibility than 1. Whatever hypothetical cheaper D-Man that you could have signed as UFA wouldn’t have been as young or as talented as Meszaros or as valuable of a trade piece come this offseason.
You’re now saying you can keep Meszaros, Coburn, and Carle. Or not. All I’m doing is ADDING an option with Gagne.
If we have Gagne’s cap hit Meszaros impossible this season therefore you are replacing Meszaros with Gagne replacing a D-Man with a forward, a UFA for a guy under contract. I know we could have gotten Mezaros and Gagne and no Shelly or Zherdev etc etc. But we all know Gagne was moved to afford a D-Man not to afford Zherdev.
Zherdev and Meszaros do not give you more options than Gagne and (insert free agent I’d rather have than Meszaros)
Once again am not getting into all this hypthetical D-Man I rather have over Meszaros. There weren’t any 25 year old D-Man on the UFA market than have top 4 D-Men potential this summer that could compete or replace Coburn or Carle.
Did you see what the Flyers got for Gagne?
Yes absolutely nothing. But Meszaros, Coburn and Carle are all more valuable trade pieces compared to Gagne.
All your options are hypothetical and highly assumptive and would lead to unknowns going into next season.
What options?? I’m dispelling your notion that the Flyers have more options now. I’m not giving options at all.
You don’t get two options in Zherdev and Mezaros you just get one option in Gagne. 2 is more flexibility than 1.
I love this, because in your VERY next sentence…
Whatever hypothetical cheaper D-Man that you could have signed as UFA wouldn’t have been as young or as talented as Meszaros or as valuable of a trade piece come this offseason.
You acknowledge that it isn’t two for one, since there’s ANOTHER defenseman that would have been signed. It’s two for two. You admit this. One sentence after contradicting it.
Further, we dispelled the notion that there aren’t as young or as talented options. Ignoring the fact that youth doesn’t mean nearly as much as you think – especially for a #5 defenseman – and talent is highly subjective, we have been over this. Yet you refuse to accept.
There weren’t any 25 year old D-Man on the UFA market than have top 4 D-Men potential this summer that could compete or replace Coburn or Carle.
It’s nice that the criteria you set for Flyers #5 defenseman is so narrow that only one guy fits the bill. Why don’t you also say “There weren’t any 25 year old D-man on the UFA market than have top 4 D-men potential that could compete or replace Coburn or Carle who’s last name ends in an ‘s’ and is from Czechoslovakia”?
You make the criteria so effing narrow that of COURSE the only person to fit the bill is Andrej Meszaros. Except for the fact that even HE doesn’t fit the criteria, since he wasn’t a UFA. You wanted a list of people who were young, can play big minutes, can play on the PP, and on the PK, and who were UFA in the offseason… and I was able to name you at least 6. But that wasn’t good enough then, and you completely ignore that now. Plus, you ignore all other players in the league who weren’t UFA who fit that description – like Meszaros himself – just to argue that Meszaros is the only option.
But you know all of this. He wasn’t the only option – let alone the best option – no matter how hard you try to pigeonhole the criteria to show that he was.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
I did contradict myself because I did see what you stated in parentheses until I read it over again and I didn’t feel like going back to correct it.
We can’t argue this issue on the forum it is getting to hard to follow too many points counter points lets just agree to disagree. We can faceoff over it at the Pick Up Game in person where it would be easier.
The point I am trying to make is that acquiring Meszaros was not only about fixing the 5th D-pair it was also of move with long term sights. He is young and has high top 4 potential if he could regain his Ottawa form.
Assuming he does you then have the flexibility choosing between Carle, Coburn and Meszaros come this offseason, knowing exactly what each player can provide to team. They are all the cost to the same age and cost close to same cap hit.
Then you can choose which 2 to keep for the longer term. And trade the other. If the all play the same or equal then trade whichever yields the most in return in a trade.
Could they have traded for a cheaper guy just as young and talented who the hell knows. If they could I imagine they would have since they were actively looking for D-Men they probably asked around to see who was available. Someone cheaper might have have cost more than a 2nd rounder since Meszaros higher salary is why we got him so cheap. Either way if the Flyers got what they wanted in Hamhuis at 4.5 million we would still be in the same boat in the offseason.
Moving one of the bigger ticket D-Men to keep the forward core intact.
The point I am trying to make is that acquiring Meszaros was not only about fixing the 5th D-pair it was also of move with long term sights. He is young and has high top 4 potential if he could regain his Ottawa form.
I agree with you here. I think this is why they got him – they wanted someone who can be a very good third-pair guy now, AND who can play in the top four down the road if he plays like he did in Ottawa. He’s already under contract (albeit too big of one, natch) and he’s one less person they’d have to worry about re-signing this coming off-season.
I think he has gotten better as the season has gone on. This not only speaks to his ability as a player, but also to the solid ground the Flyers are on right now. The last couple years in Tampa were rough ones, and he struggled. Likewise, the Flyers had all manner of transitions and adjustments to make last year; when coupled with the individual struggle of players, it made for a rough regular season.
Now the Flyers are a confident bunch and a tight-knit group, and guys like Meszaros and Zherdev are starting to show their increasing comfort level here. It indicated good things for the future.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
As do I. Which is why I entirely disagree with the notion that
Then you can choose which 2 to keep for the longer term. And trade the other. If the all play the same or equal then trade whichever yields the most in return in a trade.
Because it doesn’t make sense. Why would you sign Coburn to a 2-year deal and acquire Meszaros with 4 years left if you’re going to trade one of those two, or Carle? If you acquire Meszaros as a long-term top-four solution, why would you trade one of your three long-term top-four solutions the following off-season?
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I don’t agree with the idea of trading Coburn or Carle. The Flyers might also have acquired Mez because they were afraid of not being able to re-sign Carle after this year but I don’t think they have any thoughts about trading Carle.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
But Carle is signed for two more years, just like Coburn.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
Because this year Mez fixes the 5th pairing and next year if he plays better than Coburn or Carle he could replace them allowing them to be traded and free of the needed space, without losing a young up and coming D-Man.
Coburn didn’t have an exactly super stellar regular season but turned in on again in the playoffs. If he didn’t return to form for the regular season again he could get moved in the offseason.
You realize you’re saying that trading either a 26, 26, or 27 year old defensemen allows the Flyers to free up cap space “without losing a young up and coming D-man”, right?
You also realize that signing Milan Jurcina/Shaone Morrison instead of trading for Andrej Meszaros allows you to not only have cap space this year, but allows you to free up cap space next year by choosing between a 28 year old and Bourdon/Marshall/Gustafsson, right?
It’s just fascinating to me that you don’t grasp the idea that signing a very capable, young defenseman to a short-term, inexpensive contract gives a better option than trading a valuable draft pick for a very capable, young defenseman with a long-term, expensive contract.
If you don’t like how Coburn is playing this year, you can still trade him. If you don’t like how Jurcina played this year, you can not re-sign him. But saying that it’s better to have to find a trade (after making a trade) than using the free agent market is odd.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
I get it all that but Mez is better than Jurcina this year. And if someone gets hurt like Kimmo or Pronger having Mez would be a blessing.
That is what I am saying Mez gives us a better chance to win this year than Jurcina. You can get rid of the contract next year if needed. Depending on what the cap does and all the other million things that could happen between now and then. I rather deal with that next year and sign Jurcina next season when my forwards salary structure would dictate a lower blue-line salary.
Is Meszaros better than Jurcina this year? I just showed you, through 11/13 games, that’s not necessarily true.
And if someone gets hurt like Kimmo or Pronger, Meszaros might be a huge asset. He also might suck and show the Flyers that he’s the one of your three to be traded.
Back to your last point: You will constantly be sacrificing one area for another if you got your way. Defense is strong this year, but that means we can’t afford forwards next year. Trade the defense to make up for the offense. The year after, our defense is weak because we traded a key piece, so trade a forward for a defenseman.
Getting Jurcina upgrades the defense, upgrades the forwards, and gives you flexibility next year to either let someone come up from the Phantoms, re-sign Jurcina, or go get a different free agent.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t know if either would get moved. I could see Walker maybe moving on, but with $8M that is plenty of room for 4 players if Carter get around the same money he is getting now. Plus if you take into account either losing Powe or Carcillo as you mention below that is closer to $9M for 4 players.
… although then you start to leave it in Homer’s hand with doing math so we’d probably end up spending the entire cap trying to sign 6 Defensemen to $2M contracts and have to trade one of those offense weapons to pay for it anyway.
$9 million for 4 players… with at least $7 million locked up in Carter/Leino?
Even if Carter gets $5, Leino gets $2, Nodl and Powe get $1, and you get rid of Walker/Boucher/Zherdev/O’Donnell… you have 13 forwards (including Lappy), 6 defensemen, and two goalies with only ~$907k in cap space.
You can fit in Testwuide OR Gustafsson, but not both. If you put Lappy on LTIR, you can fit them both in, with no room for call ups. And that’s assuming Carter doesn’t get a raise and Leino is only paid $2 million.
In other words, the Flyers are looking at a Cap problem next year. In other news, the sky is blue.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
In other news, the sky is blue.
Later tonight, a new study reveals that kittens are cute. Details at 11.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
OOOOOOOH, I want to watch. That’s fascinating.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
“Every other team” don’t put themselves in this situation.
But this is a semantics argument I don’t care to get into since it would go on forever until someone quits, without a correct answer.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
It’s a problem.
Last season, Gagne was dealt to deal with the problem and it’s still a problem for next season.
Mourning Gagne forever.
Looking back on things, I would say Holmgren was planning on moving Gagne all along. He just did a poor job of doing it.
From everything said, the Flyers were trying to move Gagne at the draft, if not earlier.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
LOYALTY!
(Sorry)
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
Right…any team that wants to compete likely has a cap problem. If you don’t have a cap problem, you’re probably not a serious competitor
God Bless The Flyers
Er...
I know the SCF was played between two teams with cap problems, but I disagree that to be a serious competitor you have to have cap problems.
In order of standing, cap space;
WSH:$4 million
STL: $13 mill
LA: $6 mill,
PHI: $0*
DET: $28,000
MTL: $800k
VAN: $0*
TB: $11million
OTT:$1mill
CHI: 974k
(* indicates LTIR cushion)
That’s the top 10, and there is no correlation.
Mourning Gagne forever.
If STL and TB expect to compete in the spring, that number will shrink Phoenix-style around the trade deadline. I’d say any legitimate contender will end up being within $2-5mil of the cap by the end the regular season.
But your point is taken, and you certainly don’t need your back this close to the cap wall this early in the season.
I wonder if Holmgren would try to move Timonen after the season. I’d hate it, and with his mammoth cap hit it might be impossible, but it would be reminiscent of the Gagne trade and would explain the Meszaros signing in a backwards sort of way.
As much as I love Timonen his cap hit is almost impossible to perform to…I haven’t wanted to say it (I had mentioned it in the offseason) but I think that may be the smartest move to free up money moving forward…especially if the plan is to resign Carle and Coburn, who are both up a year before Timonen.
Is this the right room for an argument?
I kind of viewed the Maszaros trade as picking up someone who will help fill the eventual minutes left when he retires. I love the job he does and he’s been nothing short of spectacular here. That said, he may not have many more years in him for play. That’s just the impression I got from things.
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
I fully expect Timonen to retire/go to Finland when this contract is up.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
Meszaros’s contract only lasts for one more season than Timonen’s. Timonen’s goes to 2013, Mezaros’s goes to 2014.
Is this the right room for an argument?
I know you’ve (supposedly we’ve) been trying to avoid his advanced stats, but I’ve already admitted to looking – and so have you – so I’m wondering if it’s time to post an update on Mesz’s season so far?
I ask, because I just stumbled upon a (well, two) terrible Bleacher Report article and decided to see just how well he’s doing.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t mind doing it at the quarter poll. But I want to keep it out of our game day grading system as much as humanly possible.
Is this the right room for an argument?
No problem with the game day, I’m simply asking about random “I looked and am interested” quick comments.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
A full defense comparison? To my eyes (!) it seems like the younger guys might be outplaying the older ones.
Mourning Gagne forever.
Do you want a full-defense comparison?
I was thinking of a quick “Meszaros vs. 27-28 year old UFA d-men signed in 2010 for less than $4 million” comment.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
I guess it’s too early for that, and I can do it easily enough with a quick scan of the numbers.
Yeah go on actually, because some of those UFAs aren’t playing as well as I would have liked if they were on the Flyers so it would be interesting to see where Mes comes out.
Mourning Gagne forever.
Well, both you and Don saw the Corsi/Zone Start spreadsheet where Meszaros comes out quite nicely (i.e. above the team averages).
Meszaros:
- Third-lowest 45.2% offensive zone start;
- Second-worst 47.5% offensive zone finish;
- Team-highest 0.138 QualComp;
- Second-highest 0.353 QualTeam;
- Team-worst 5.88% shooting percentage;
- Second-highest 0.958% save percentage;
- Second-best 1.19 GAON/60;
- Team-worst 1.98 GFON/60;
- Third-lowest 0.79 plus/minusON/60;
- Second-highest 1.19 Pts/60
In all, not bad. Massive highs and lows, suggesting it’s fairly early – as Don was afraid of – to judge. Honestly, you can paint any picture you want with those numbers, as there is both good and bad in there.
Milan Jurcina – 27 years old, $1 million, 1 year, 16:40 TOI/G, no PP time:
- Team-worst 38.6% offensive zone start;
- Team-best 57.9% offensive zone finish;
- Team-highest 0.161 QualComp;
- Third-highest(worst) -0.208 QualTeam;
- Second-highest 7.69 shooting percentage;
- Second-highest 0.908 save percentage;
- Second-best 2.75 GAON/60;
- Team-best 2.29 GFON/60;
- Team-best -0.46 plus/minusON/60;
- Team-best 0.92 Pts/60
Honestly, there’s more to like than not like in here, as Jurcina is playing admirably for a really terrible Islanders team. For $1 million, that’s solid.
Kurtis Foster – 28 years old, $1.8 million, 2 years, 18:30 TOI/G, no PK time:
- Second-highest 52.7% offensive zone start;
- Third-highest 49.0% offensive zone finish;
- Team-highest 0.050 QualComp;
- Second-highest 0.068 QualTeam;
- Second-worst 6.94 shooting percentage;
- Second-worst 0.908 save percentage;
- Second-worst 3.20 GAON/60;
- Second-worst 2.28 GFON/60;
- Team-worst -0.91 plus/minusON/60;
- Second-worst 0.91 Pts/60
There’s a lot of bad in there, but he’s been pretty unlucky. Having second worst shooting and save percentages will result in second-worst scoring numbers. With 6 points in 11 games, this is another example of “You can find support for whatever conclusion you want” numbers.
Shaone Morrison – 27 years old, $2.075 million, 2 years, 17:30 TOI/G, no PP time:
- Team-worst 49.3% offensive zone start;
- Team-best 58.9% offensive zone finish;
- Team-highest 0.286 QualComp;
- Team-worst -0.839 QualTeam;
- Team-worst 1.69 shooting percentage;
- Second-worst 0.904 save percentage;
- Second-worst 3.37 GAON/60;
- Team-worst 0.48 GFON/60;
- Team-worst -2.89 plus/minusON/60;
- Third-worst 0.48 Pts/60
Morrison is another guy who is doing remarkably well for a terrible team. Those numbers are staggering – Zone Star and Zone Finish; Shooting Percentage; Goals For/60; Goals Against/60 – and yet he’s probably outperforming his contract.
The point: Through an incredibly small sample-size, there are players performing as well if not better than Meszaros for half as much. That’s not to say Meszaros is playing poorly, because he’s not. Do those other players play on both special teams? No, but #5 defensemen don’t need to.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
Too much back and forth in this post, not enough moving the point forward…low Corsi..3/5.
Is this the right room for an argument?
haha, hey, it proves my ability to post facts that don’t agree with the hypothesis while simultaneously proving my over-arching theme.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
He’s doing pretty well so far. The sample size doesn’t help at all though. Jurcina or Morrisson would have been the kind of player I would have targeted, good defensively and on the PK, and you don’t have to pay him like a point scoring defender.
Jurcina actually looks amazing. All of those numbers are impressive.
Mourning Gagne forever.
Agreed. Meszaros isn’t playing poorly at all. In fact, he’s playing quite well. The problem is so are a ton of other players who cost a fraction of what Meszaros does, and they’re doing it on really terrible teams.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
What this won’t quantify, and what Chris will mention, is Meszaros’s worth past this season to the Flyers.
Is this the right room for an argument?
Because he gives them a trading piece? Meaning options? Like deciding whether to re-sign a guy or not, and let an even cheaper, more talented, younger defenseman come up and win a spot?
You mean deciding between Milan Jurcina or Erik Gustafsson/Marc Andre-Bourdon/Kevin Marshall after this year or Which of Coburn/Carle/Meszaros do we trade, in hopes of recouping a second round pick at worst, because we would rather have a salary cap problem than an empty roster spot to fill with whoever we want?
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
No, that isn’t what I’m referring to, but more so Meszaros developing to be a deal at his contract where someone like Jurcina is what he is…not saying I agree or disagree…just playing devil’s advocate.
Is this the right room for an argument?
That was a rant, so we’ll move along.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
Jurcina was on my roster for the Flyers in the off season haha. It was a Jurcina/Jones toos up for that spot. But it’s a small sample size, we’ll see how it shakes out in the end.
Is this the right room for an argument?
Exactly.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
But next year Mez can be a number 3-4 when if the team decides to sign the forwards. Which I think they should.
haha, so strengthen the D this year only to weaken it next year, because you have to strengthen the forwards that you weakened this year, for next year?
Makes perfect sense.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
No matter what the Flyers did next year would be a step back if the cap doesn’t go up there is nothing they go do about it. Entry level contracts are expiring you have to choose who to keep and who to let go.
I am guessing you would just rather see the team weakened overall buy trying go out and find the most efficient cap friendly contracts over the better or high potential players so you won’t ever be forced to make hard discussions in the offseason.
I am guessing you would just rather see the team weakened overall buy trying go out and find the most efficient cap friendly contracts over the better or high potential players so you won’t ever be forced to make hard discussions in the offseason.
Yes, that is exactly what I want. A terrible team full of players over achieving their cap hits. Wait, if you have a team full of over-achievers, you likely won’t be terrible? By gosh, who’d have thought that?
Or, you know, the Flyers could rid themselves of Walker, Leighton, Carcillo, and Carter while re-signing Powe, Nodl, and Leino, bringing up Wellwood, Gustafsson, and Backlund, signing Brooks Laich, and spending the remaining $3 million making Wellwood/JVR battle for a spot on any other forward they want to play alongside Giroux. Even more if you put Lappy on LTIR, or if he’s healthy enough to play, making Powe/Shelley expendable.
But no, my way is a terrible team, right?
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Ville Leino ($2.250m) / Daniel Briere ($6.500m) / Scott Hartnell ($4.200m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Eric Wellwood ($0.580m)
Brooks Laich ($2.500m) / Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Andreas Nodl ($1.000m)
Jody Shelley ($1.100m) / Blair Betts ($0.700m) / Darroll Powe ($0.925m)
Ian Laperriere ($1.166m)
DEFENSEMEN
Matt Carle ($3.437m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Braydon Coburn ($3.200m) / Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Erik Gustafsson ($0.900m)
Oskars Bartulis ($0.600m)
GOALTENDERS
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m) /Johan Backlund ($0.800m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $58,018,096; BONUSES: $1,700,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $3,081,904
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
You have $3 million to make it better. And honestly, how is it worse? No Jeff Carter?
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Oh man, better keep Leighton around because he… oh wait.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t get it…
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
I’m showing my age. Heather gets it I’m sure, but only if she watched reruns of What’s Happening!! while growing up.
Just so you can get it, here you go.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
I’m showing my age. Heather gets it I’m sure
I only said that because we’re around the same age.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
No depth? You have MIKE TESTWUIDE on the Phantoms. You have $3 million to go get your depth.
And Zherdev? Really? I replaced him with Brooks Laich. That’s an upgrade. Carter? Go get a $3 million winger. I suggest Erik Cole. Bam, you have Wellwood and Testwuide as depth.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
Bam, you have Wellwood and Testwuide as depth.
They are Phantoms AHL players. I don’t want them as my Depth not as much depth as we have now. They are moving up like 3-4 spots on the depth chart.
A) Isn’t that how you build an NHL team? Well, I mean, I guess you forget/ignore the salary cap and think we should just ignore our AHL team and become the Yankees of hockey – only acquire other NHL talent.;
B) They are our depth now! How is that any different?;
C) How are they moving up 3-4 spots? Wellwood moves up one – from the 14th forward to the 13th. Or are you forgetting that I only removed three players (Carcillo, Carter, and Zherdev) while adding Brooks Laich and leaving $3 million to add another. That’s a net loss of one player from the current top-13, with $3 million to go spend it on someone.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
And what happens if injuries to Giroux, Richards or Briere. Who plays center up there now…. Powe. What happens if Kimmo gets hurt both Bartulis and Gustufsson are in. The current roster is so much deeper and more skilled.
Who plays center? Brooks Laich. Or the $3 million player(s).
What about defense? I thought you had Meszaros to take care of a top-2 injury? What happens if Kimmo gets hurt this year? Both Bartulis and… O`Donnell are in the lineup. How is that worse than Bartulis/Gustafsson?
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
You can’t be serious Bartulis Gustafsson is better than Bartulis O’Donnel. No they are not.
You can’t be serious with this lineup being better.
It’s not a complete lineup! You have $3 million to go get somebody. You want Langenbrunner, Frolov, Ponikarovsky, Knuble, Fleischmann, Moulson, Backes, Miettenen…
But no, this lineup is worse because it doesn’t have Jeff Carter. Who doesn’t fit on this team.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
What the fuck crawled up your ass today. It hasn’t nothing to do with Carter. That team is not as good as the current one no matter who you get for 3 million.
First off, I feel like I’m arguing with MarioD again because you keep moving the goalposts. You simply said my team would suck because winning and cap efficiency are mutually exclusive.
But second, how is that team not as good? Not as good as what?
You lose: Carter, Zherdev, Carcillo, O`Donnell, and Boucher.
You add: $3 million man, Brooks Laich, Eric Wellwood, Erik Gustafsson, and Johan Backlund.
Goaltending stays the same, if not better. Defense stays the same, if not better. Offensive might get slightly worse, but you have a much clearer distinction between top-9, and you get a winger for Richards, an upgrade on Carcillo, and $3 million to replace Carter. If you want Lappy on LTIR, you have $4.1 million to replace Carter.
The reason you think that team isn’t as good is because of Carter. It has to be. There is no other place on that roster that gets worse.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 6:13 PM EST up reply actions
Let me get this back down to Earth I never said that team would suck I just said that is not as good as this team. Right now.
That is a lot of Rookies to bring up at once. Geoff a lot. You don’t see that for a reason. The Flyers have a steady influx of 1-2 guys a year. Not that many.
Nodl/Bartulis this year, Wellwood/Gustufsson next year. Under your plan you want to bring up all those Phantoms guys into regular action immediately. That is a recipe for disaster.
The team is probably going to look something similar to that next season anyway. But at least Nodl and Bartulis will have a full year of experience. And Bobrosky as well. What is Rush to get all the Phantoms in here.
You would move Carter I prefer to move a one of the D-Man, Carle, Coburn and Mez.
The reason for that is I think goal scoring is our biggest weakness currently. And the Blueline is our biggest strength in the Farm System with guys plenty of guys who should be ready to make the jump next year. And if Carter can learn to play the wing so far he has been okay he be a very powerful movable piece in the lineup.
That is what we are arguing about here we are not that far off.
I’d respond to this, but I’m sensing that this was still in response to thinking I wanted this lineup for the 2010-11 season.
As such, I will simply say: I agree with you that our defensive prospects are a strength.
From there, we simply disagree. And that’s fine. Plus, I seem to constantly get into arguments that are largely predicated on a misunderstanding. I’m beginning to think it’s me…
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 8:10 PM EST up reply actions
Brooks Laich has proven inconsistently good at them.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
haha, seriously, why did he come up?!
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
Have you read your SBN Philly comments on the Richards piece? He is such a jerk.
Mourning Gagne forever.
haha, apparently not recently.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
haha, I just did.
I’m honored you two stuck up for me, but he’s hysterical. I have my own irrational, ignorant stalker. The only times he comments are on my stories. So he either RSS’ my writings or continues to visit SBN Philly only to post his irrational, ignorant rantings.
It makes me feel good that I have someone that devoted to being crazy.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
He’s an obvious troll. Don took a different tact to me, but I decided it wasn’t worth it because of his ignorance and disrespect for anyone else’s opinions.
But it’s still funny. Who in their right mind would consider what he is saying over what you are?
Mourning Gagne forever.
haha, it’s definitely funny.
Especially if you remember what started his hatred for me: Travis banned him after he posted something in the “Gagne T-Shirt Sale” post. Which he didn’t take kindly to.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
Haha, I do remember that.
He may have brought up a point about group think, unintentionally of course, regarding Don and I defending you.
But while I see Nodl-Mike-Powe as not the greatest line ever, it makes possible a JVR/Z-Carter-X line, which would be outstanding. And I think that’s where he’s missing the point.
The past few games where Mike has been with Nodl and Wellwood looked great.
Mourning Gagne forever.
Exactly. Nodl-Richie-Powe is not a very good line. But it has a clear role, superior defense, can eat the tough minutes, has great forechecking, and can even pop in a few goals (mostly from transition).
But most importantly, it lets Hartnell-Briere-Leino and JVR/Z – Carter – Giroux get between 55-65% offensive zone starts. Against the other team’s second and third lines.
You’re creating two pretty big mismatches in your favor, leaving a mostly even match for your fourth-line, and creating a third-line that will win about 45% of the battles against the other team’s first lines.
I’ll take that any day. Though I’ll also accept Nodl-Richie-Giroux, if people aren’t comfortable with Nodl & Powe on the same line. I understand that.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 8:16 PM EST up reply actions
That seems unfair, if you’re planning to write a “Mez shouldn’t be on this team” type article. Meszaros is actually playing fairly well according to advanced metrics.
Sure, he’s not earning a $4 million cap hit. But comparing him to other cheaper free agent options is problematic because the situations are different. If you’re going to go that route, you might as well compare him to Gagne (who would still be on this team had the Mez trade not happened). And we all know how he’s doing this season.
How is it unfair? The longest argument going on over Meszaros isn’t about how well he’s playing, it’s about the decision to acquire him in the first place.
And his biggest defender – Chris – has constantly said there weren’t better options out there for less. By selecting 27 year old defensemen who were UFA last offseason and signed for less than Meszaros’ contract, it’s testing the theory that the Flyers could not have acquired anyone better than Meszaros.
I guess I don’t understand why comparing Meszaros to the guys the Flyers passed up in order to acquire him is unfair.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
It sounds pretty fair to me. Except its only value is judging whether Holmgren made a good move. Is that really worth your time, because what’s done is done?
Haha, but you’re forgetting that by judging Holmgren’s move I’m also judging whether I was right or not. And proving I was right is definitely worth my time.
That’s only partially in jest, as my three favorite words are “You are right.”
But more importantly, so long as the Flyers are hobbled by over-priced contracts and salary cap problems, the Meszaros acquisition will be a key piece of that. So I don’t abide by “what’s done is done”. That said, I see your point.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think anyone will complain if he plays up to his contract, but right now he isn’t, so you can judge the move that way.
Mourning Gagne forever.
Well, I’ll probably still complain. It’s about the principle of the matter, Todd! Cap efficiency is more important than a gamble that a high-priced guy can reach his cap value.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
Cap Efficency doesn’t win cups. Putting the best team on the ice does. And getting Mez allowed the Flyers to put the best team on the ice this season without once again hurting the future too much. They can just trade him in the offseason his value is certainly higher now then it was in Tampa regardless of his contract.
haha, “cap efficiency” and “putting the best team on the ice” are not mutually exclusive.
And keeping a second round pick while going the free agent route hurts the future a lot less than trading a second round pick.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
I won’t complain if we win the cup, and is partly due to Meszaros playing like Streit, Regehr etc.
Mourning Gagne forever.
I’ll express gratitude that Meszaros played so well and actually lived up to the contract, but I’ll still say it was a bad plan.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
If they win the cup, all the players will have higher trade value and Homer can rebuild with picks and prospects!
Then we can all go to Candy Mountain where it rains gum drops and the trees are made of chocolate.
Mourning Gagne forever.
I feel that gumdrops falling from 20,000 to 30,000 feet would be more trouble than they’re worth.
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by Grp_Cpt_Lionel_Mandrake on Nov 9, 2010 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
Just imagine how much higher the concussion rate would go if people were outside catching a few plummeting gumdrops in the face.
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by Grp_Cpt_Lionel_Mandrake on Nov 9, 2010 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
If they win the cup, all the players will have higher trade value and Homer can rebuild with picks and prospects!
Actually, that’s how Colorado stayed competitive through the early-to-mid 2000s. Pierre Lacroix was a good GM to begin with. His ability to make trades based on the fact that he was offering “championship”-caliber muckers & grinders was astounding.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
Say what you will about Homer, but the main difference is that we haven’t won the Cup yet. Once you do that, everyone on your team becomes more valuable.
This is especially true for the Flyers if they win the Cup this year (since they’d have made the Finals two years in a row).
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
It’s unfair because he’s playing well. If he was playing poorly according to advanced metrics, then you could say, “See, we’ve got a bad player with a bad contract, when we could have had _______.” Now, you’re saying, “We could have had __________ who’s doing slightly better on another team, who may not have fit as well on this roster, who might not have developed immediate chemistry with O’Donnell, who might not have been able to play the role that we are asking Meszaros to play.” There’s so many outside factors when comparing across teams. As I said, if you do that, then you might as well compare Meszaros’ 10-11 season to Gagne’s. I wouldn’t, because Gagne would have had chemistry with his linemates in Philly, and may never have gotten hurt. But once the can of worms is opened up, I feel like he’s fair game.
I’ll go through the guys you mentioned.
Jurcina was coming off surgery and is already hurt this year (hamstring: 2-4 weeks).
While I like Foster, I’m unsure if another offensive defenseman fit this team’s current makeup. If you look at the way Pronger in particular has been used this season in comparison to last, it seems like one of the goals was to increase Pronger’s use in the offensive zone (58.8% so far in 10-11, 51.5% in 09-10). Foster doesn’t let you do that, because if you want to take advantage of his skillset, you have to give him lots of offensive draws.
With Morrisonn, you have a point. He’s playing fantastic.
Basically, my opinion is that they got a guy who is overpaid, but seems to fit the team and his role on the team quite nicely. It’s uncertain whether the other options would have fit as well. Does that mean we can still complain about his contract? Sure. But there are numerous players currently on this roster who aren’t living up to their contracts so far this season. And from a relative standpoint, have been bigger wastes of cap space than Meszaros.
Though I agree with you, I feel like Geoff is doing this as a fun exercise, more like it’s interesting to look. It’s far to early to draw conclusion, and as you said, there are always outside factors. For instance, would Jurcina have gotten injured here?
Is this the right room for an argument?
I would have been perfectly happy with an O’Donnell-Bartulis third pairing, honestly. I think the Meszaros trade was unnecessary.
But considering his solid play so far, I don’t feel like we have to harp on his contract. I just feel like the comparisons across teams is a bit unfair.
Like I said, I agree with you…but given Todd, Geoff, and I had wanted these other players, it is interesting to see how they match up for our own knowledge and discussion.
In no means are we trying to take anything away from Meszaros, but rather see how our arm chairing GMing faired throughout the summer.
Is this the right room for an argument?
Agreement! I love it.
Seriously though, I think it’s pretty obvious that Holmgren didn’t exactly have a fantastic offseason.
Ha, I love these debates. To quote Rod Tidwell, “You think we’re fighting, and I think we’re finally talking!”
haha, love it.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
Haha yeah. And Geoff is being nice enough to grab the stats for us and put it in one nice little summary, so I don’t want to discourage that haha.
Is this the right room for an argument?
lol, my professor is away so we have guest lecturers telling us stuff we don’t need to know.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
Agree with both of you. It’s too early to make any hard line judgements, I was just interested in seeing an early comparison. Right now it looks like Jurcina would have been the best option, but that will undoubtedly change.
Mourning Gagne forever.
Exactly. I have no problem getting roped into an exercise bashing Meszaros. But if you look at everything I’ve said, he’s playing well. Looking at other UFAs was simply because I stumbled upon a terrible article, and Chris brought up his ridiculous “only Meszaros fit what the Flyers were looking for” classification again.
So I compared him. And my conclusion was: They are all pretty much playing well. No one is playing poorly, and even if some are better or worse, it is far too early to tell.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
Okay, let’s break this down:
It’s unfair because he’s playing well.
We entirely disagree here. Why is it unfair to compare him just because he’s playing well? I said he’s playing well. Can we not compare Claude Giroux to other players, simply because he’s playing well?
Now, you’re saying, "We could have had __________ who’s doing slightly better on another team, who may not have fit as well on this roster, who might not have developed immediate chemistry with O’Donnell, who might not have been able to play the role that we are asking Meszaros to play."
I’m not saying that at all.
There’s so many outside factors when comparing across teams.
Yes there is. Does that mean that you can’t examine how guys are doing at 5-on-5 while taking into account how they’re being used? That’s why we look at zone start, QualComp, QualTeam, on-ice shooting percentage, on-ice save percentage, and plenty of other things.
you might as well compare Meszaros’ 10-11 season to Gagne’s.
If your point is to make a ludicrous comparison – Forward to Defense – to prove that you think my comparison is ludicrous, I see your point. But if you think the two are actually similar, we have a problem.
I entirely agree with your analysis of Foster. But Pronger is also hurt, so how much is his injury determining where he plays? Wouldn’t you rather have an 80% Pronger away from the defensive zone, but a 100% Pronger in the defensive zone?
As far as his role on the team, what exactly is that? He’s fourth in PPTOI/G and fourth in PKTOI/G. If you get a defensive defenseman, Coburn can get more PP time. If you get Foster, O`Donnell can get more PK time. His role is fluid, so why do we have to judge Meszaros on what he’s being asked to do, rather than what a #5 defenseman could reasonably do?
Lastly, who has been a bigger waste of cap space? I’m honestly curious.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
Lastly, who has been a bigger waste of cap space? I’m honestly curious.
Come on, Geoff, it’s this guy.
Mourning Gagne forever.
Oh. Well, can’t argue that.
HATER!
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
We entirely disagree here. Why is it unfair to compare him just because he’s playing well? I said he’s playing well. Can we not compare Claude Giroux to other players, simply because he’s playing well?
Of course you can compare. I’m just saying that the rampant criticism of Meszaros should be toned down a bit, considering the fact that he’s playing like a defenseman that warrants a $2.5 – $3 million cap hit, rather than a $1.5 – $2.0 cap hit, like he had been in Tampa Bay.
Yes there is. Does that mean that you can’t examine how guys are doing at 5-on-5 while taking into account how they’re being used? That’s why we look at zone start, QualComp, QualTeam, on-ice shooting percentage, on-ice save percentage, and plenty of other things.
Yes you can, and they do a fantastic job of evaluating players, a much better job than the basic stats. But still, they are dependent on things like fit and chemistry. Look at the advanced stats on Briere, Hartnell and Leino ever since they were turned into a line. They went through the roof.
If your point is to make a ludicrous comparison – Forward to Defense – to prove that you think my comparison is ludicrous, I see your point.
Yep, that’s my point, although I think ludicrous is too harsh for both. I’d call them both incomplete comparisons.
As far as his role on the team, what exactly is that?
As I see it: a player who can replace Coburn on the power play (who struggled last year in that role), while also playing solid defensive zone minutes in order to reduce the wear and tear on Pronger from a minutes standpoint and allow him to function more on the offensive end, increasing the team’s overall offensive production on 5-on-5.
Lastly, who has been a bigger waste of cap space? I’m honestly curious.
For one, Zherdev. And another, although it hurts me to say it: Timonen, who is playing more like a $4 d-man than a $6+. Still love him and expect him to play better as the season progresses, however.
I’m just saying that the rampant criticism of Meszaros should be toned down a bit,
I don’t think the criticism was that bad, especially since I said on multiple occasions that he is playing well. But perceptions are subjective.
Look at the advanced stats on Briere, Hartnell and Leino ever since they were turned into a line. They went through the roof.
Certainly. But does that not work both ways? I mean, who’s to say Jurcina wouldn’t be amazing with O`Donnell too? Or that his stats would be better than Meszaros’ if he had Bob behind him and LBH in front of him? To say stats don’t take into account chemistry is obvious. But to say that’s a fatal problem is taking it too far.
Yep, that’s my point, although I think ludicrous is too harsh for both. I’d call them both incomplete comparisons.
haha, fair enough.
As I see it: a player who can replace Coburn on the power play (who struggled last year in that role), while also playing solid defensive zone minutes in order to reduce the wear and tear on Pronger from a minutes standpoint and allow him to function more on the offensive end, increasing the team’s overall offensive production on 5-on-5.
Wow, that’s a mouthful. And I honestly don’t have a counter to that. You’re asking him to do a lot of things. Maybe he will do that, maybe he won’t. Maybe somebody can also do that, maybe they can’t. But it sounds like you’re looking for a guy who can play on both the PP and the PK. With no age restriction, I could find guys who can do that.
Lastly, it’s interesting you name Zherdev. A ton of people saw that as a great deal – I thought it was a good contract, personally – and I’m not ready to write that off yet. But I see your point. And just like Don, I feel like Kimmo will never live up to that contract any more, so I agree with you there even if I wouldn’t call it a “waste of cap space.”
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, I’ll freely admit that I liked the Zherdev signing. That and the O’Donnell pickup were the two moves I agreed with in the offseason. But so far, he certainly hasn’t been living up to his contract.
We agree!
Isn’t that wonderful?
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 6:14 PM EST up reply actions
It’s unfair because he’s playing well. If he was playing poorly according to advanced metrics, then you could say, "See, we’ve got a bad player with a bad contract, when we could have had _______."
This argument doesn’t make sense, because it is advanced statistics that determine whether or not he’s playing well.
The advstats we use are to determine if a player is playing well, but are they the most appropriate measures? I’d say yes, but it would be interesting to see if there was a player who according to the metrics is playing poorly, but isn’t actually.
Is that at all possible? Have I created a thought experiment that is doomed from the beginning?
Mourning Gagne forever.
I was joking. But we all seem to agree the stats are more useful when there’s a bigger sample size, and the current exercise is just for funnsies fun.
hahahahahaha
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
But I was serious. Find a player who is poor statistcally, but awesome at hockey.
Mourning Gagne forever.
I don’t know how to crunch them very well. I fear you’ll look at what I bring back and have to make the trip yourself.
Also, I’m a little lazy at the end of a work day.
Last year? He wasn’t very good. He wasn’t bad, but he wasn’t very good.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
haha, There’s a reason I didn’t write his grade.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t know if many people are going to argue he’s great, but I think he did fairly well in his role. The reason I picked him is that he’s the guy most people are willing to argue the intangibles for. I’m not sure I buy that, but he was great on the PK.
I think the best people to match him against will be Powe in extended minutes with Betts.
Rob Scuderi?
Oh, wait…
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
haha, exactly.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
Isn’t it way to early? I’s as interested as any other dabbler in advanced stats as the next guy. But it’s still a small sample size here. I’d love to see a break down of the numbers though.
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
It is definitely early. That’s mainly why I asked, because if Don and Todd didn’t want to see them, they nobody would want to see them.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 6:15 PM EST up reply actions
Terrible article and Bleacher Report? That doesn’t sound like Bleacher Report at all.
"Gentlemen, you can't fight in here, this is the war room."
by Grp_Cpt_Lionel_Mandrake on Nov 9, 2010 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
I know, I almost didn’t want to say that because it’s so out of character.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
What about a Carcillo trade rumor? Looking at the list of RFAs he is the one that — in my opinion — is the most expendable. Maybe try to move him towards the trade deadline for a pick or an aged contract .. then you don’t have to worry about him accepting your qualifying offer.
I agree we don’t need Shelly, Betts, Powe, Lappy and Carcillo only 3 of those guys can play on the 4th line. Shelly isn’t going anywhere. Lappy might never play again and Betts is playing great and bring a lot to table at a super cheap price those other guys can’t. It is either Powe or Carcillo.
Powe can fill more roles PK and center but Nodl can play the PK when he is an everyday player. Carcillo brings energy and fire and what not. But he could probably fetch more in a trade then Powe and costs more on the cap.
I rather keep Powe but I can the cases being made for either player.
Can Zac Rinaldo play in the NHL and fill the pest agitator roll if so Carcillo will become obsolete?
Rinaldo has 4pts, 2G and 2A in 9 games in the AHL this season not too bad considering he only scoring 10G his last year in juniors.
Fred Shero
Thanks for the link to the Fred Shero article. He absolutely deserves to be in the HOF, and someday hopefully, his legacy and winning record will be viewed for what it is, and not coupled with any bias against the Broad Street Bullies. Sure, the team that won 2 back-to-back Cups and made it to 3 consecutive finals played a very physical game, but they also had great hockey skills; something that often gets overlooked.
Sarauj, Latvija!
Who is the Brendan Ranford kid? He has 17G in 19GP in the WHL. He has real good size at 5ft 11in 182lbs and is only 18 years old. He fights and hits. Is he the Power forward we have been waiting for? He could be some find as a 7th round pick.
He was marginally impressive at Prospect Camp. In other words, I noticed him at times, but he wasn’t the most impressive. So, that’s a positive.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
Exactly.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
trade/cut Shelley, Walker, and Lappy and that frees up about $4 mill-ish. With the $8 mill already and a possible raise in the cap we should be fine.
Samesis
http://orangecrunch.blogspot.com/
So trade/cut two guys you just acquired, have multiple years left on their deals, and are overpaid? Then trade/cut an injured over-35 player – i.e. cannot be done? Let me know how that works for you.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
Sure it can be done. You can cut a 35+ contract … … …. …. …. i mean you could do it if you wanted to, you would just take the full brunt on the cap hit regardless.
To quote my high school calculus teacher (RIP), “Well, you COULD do that. It’d be WRONG, but you could do it!”
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
yes … well said … I thought my comment said that though … can’t attribute for sarcasm on the interwebs
I think I had that teacher too.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Nov 10, 2010 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
What Mike said.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
You can waive an over 35 contract to the minors without having the cap hit count right? You still have to pay him?
Article 13.6 says you cannot waive injured players unless they were on recall – which Lappy was not.
And Article 50.5(d)(i)(B)(5) says over-35 contracts, “regardless of whether, or where, they are playing,” count against the cap.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
But they are playing in the minors. The NHLPA should be all over that one next CBA. That is going to lead to age discrimination. What is the incentive for signing a 35 year old player?
Um… It’s to prevent cap circumvention. Don’t sign an over-35 for multiple years if you aren’t prepared to deal with his cap hit. You want to sign a 39-year old? Sign him to a one-year deal. If he doesn’t work out, send him to the minors and avoid his cap hit.
But don’t sign Chris Pronger to a 7 year extension if you aren’t prepared to be on the hook for his $4.9 million cap hit when he’s 43-years old.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
I get that for 39 year old players but for guys that are at the 35 year old mark they are really screwed, like the Lappy contract. That was a great deal at 3 years he would easily play that out until he was 38. But the injury cost him.
He wouldn’t easily play that out, as evidenced by the fact that he didn’t.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
The Famous Mr. Ed
“Honestly, I think it’s a revisionist history sometimes with the way [Fred Shero] was viewed. People look at the fighting and the rough stuff and they forget that we played really good hockey.”
This quote needs to be plastered on every hockey blog the world over. The Flyers didn’t win the Cup two years in a row by beating the shit out of everyone. They won the Cup two years in a row because they were, as Mr. Ed says, “really good.”
I always think of this stuff whenever I watch Flyers games being called by the other team’s announcers, as I did on Sunday. I was in Charlottesville, VA, and my friends have all of the local Washington DC channels (even though DC is over 2 hours away from Charlottesville). So I got to experience Joe Beninati and Craig Laughlin’s take on the game. At one point Joey Bento Box claimed that Hartnell was “mauling” someone in the corner while he was, in fact, battling for the puck. According to Random House, “maul” means “to injure by a rough beating, shoving, or the like; bruise.”
If the Caps were playing some other team and some other player was battling a Cap for puck control in the corner, I cannot help but wonder if Beninati would have claimed that other team’s player was “mauling” the Cap in the corner. It’s possible and very likely that Beninati, like many other commentators, tries to have a varied on-air vocabulary. Appropriate synonyms are always a good thing, especially in sports commentary. (Football announcers, take note!) But it has gotten to the point where I’m always suspicious of other people talking about the Flyers, because of their (likely) prejudices against the 1970s teams.
For the record, I don’t really have anything against Beninati. His voice can be a little harsh sometimes, but he does play-by-play well, and he generally gets excited at the appropriate times (unlike, say, Gary Thorne).
Am I rambling? Does this make sense? What do you all think?
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
This quote needs to be plastered on every hockey blog the world over. The Flyers didn’t win the Cup two years in a row by beating the shit out of everyone. They won the Cup two years in a row because they were, as Mr. Ed says, "really good."
True…but it didn’t hurt that they beat the shit out of everyone as well as being good.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
I agree. My point was that the team won because they were good at the fundamentals of the game, played a tight system, got timely scoring, and had excellent goaltending. In other words, they won for the same reason that every other team in the modern era has been winning. They did not punch pucks into the other team’s net, or away from their own. The rough stuff ensured that they would not be intimidated, but they would not have won if they were not a good hockey team overall.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
Mauling is often used for scrums in the corner, i don’t think that really shows bias.
Flyers Fans: We've survived Lock-outs, Lindros and Cooperalls. If you want to get rid of us, you'll have to split an atom or two.
by KreiderDesigns on Nov 9, 2010 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
If you want bias, listen to the NESN feed of a Flyers-Bruins game, specifically Jack Edwards. Based on his view, the Flyers are nothing but cheating thugs. I remember one of the playoff games against the Bruins last season where Pronger broke his stick, and Edwards immediately said the officials should pick up the pieces to check for an illegal curve on the blade.
Sarauj, Latvija!
As a Flyers fan, I’m overly sensitive to potential biases. However, I will say that Beninati and Laughlin did not seem too bad with the homer stuff on Sunday, so you’re probably right.
The English teacher in me, however, screams out “Word choice!”
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
Haha WC is vital.
Flyers Fans: We've survived Lock-outs, Lindros and Cooperalls. If you want to get rid of us, you'll have to split an atom or two.
by KreiderDesigns on Nov 9, 2010 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
You guys know better than I would, but with Wellwood heading back to Aridondack is it safe to assume JvR will be back in the lineup tomorrow night?
"I make love to pressure." - Stephen Jackson
"My passion is more passionate than ever." - Greg Paulus
I’m not sure but Wellwood didn’t play on Sunday did he and JVR was a scratch then.
Flyers Fans: We've survived Lock-outs, Lindros and Cooperalls. If you want to get rid of us, you'll have to split an atom or two.
by KreiderDesigns on Nov 9, 2010 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
Nah, you’re right he didnt. I guess my desire to see JvR succeed and reach his potential is what drives me to want him to be out there. He definitely hasn’t been better than Nodl, Wellwood or Powe, but part of me just wants him to be in the hope that he starts progressing. I really hope he’s not a bust.
"I make love to pressure." - Stephen Jackson
"My passion is more passionate than ever." - Greg Paulus
by joe_digiacomo on Nov 9, 2010 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
Nodl
My Nodl jerseys are at an all time high in value right now, woot.
But the article was nice, and as much as I loved Nodl, it was incorrect that his first call did include playing time with some of the Flyers top young talent at the time, mostly Carter I believe. However, that said, it was his first year of pro hockey out of college, so he gets a pass for it in the regard. But it’s just wrong to say he didn’t play with top level talent.
Is this the right room for an argument?
I am starting to come around on Nodl. I willing to admit I was wrong about him. Hopefully the Mez haters will do the same.
There aren’t (m)any Meszaros haters, there are Meszaros contract haters from what I understand. The guy just isn’t going to earn that contract this year unless he steps up on the PP. Timonen won’t earn his contract either. The difference is, Meszaros might start earning his in the up coming seasons, Timonen, however, will be on the decline.
On Nodl, I like how you are willing to come around on Nodl based on an empty net goal, a beauty of a feed that was eay to bury, and a misplay of a puck by Rolo in a handful of games. Don’t get me wrong, I am loving the love for the guy, but you seemed very easily swayed by little things over small sample sizes. However, if you are swayed b/c you finally see how good he is defensively, and that he is gaining some confidence in his offensive game, then that’s fine.
Is this the right room for an argument?
I’ll bet that Chris sees 3 goals and applies the Carter principle: “Three goals in 7 games! One game-winning goal!” and say I was wrong about him!
Never mind the empty-net, luck, or tap-in, let alone the 37.5% shooting percentage. Nodl wasn’t unlucky before, he was terrible. And Nodl isn’t lucky now, he’s AWESOME!
That’s correct, right?
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
KInd of what I’m getting at…also, remember to breath Geoff haha.
Nodl’s play in both ends has been really noticeable in a good way though. He looks very strong back checking, and has played well with Richards in the offensive zone as well. I don’t want to have that get lost in this haha.
Is this the right room for an argument?
haha, I’m breathing just fine, Law.
Definitely don’t let it get lost. But really, it proves our point. He wasn’t terrible before – he was unlucky. He isn’t a 35 goal scorer (3 goals in 7 games, extrapolated to 82 games) either, he’s getting lucky. So people’s opinions shouldn’t be swayed one way or the other.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
I admit I was wrong and still getting shit. Jesus Christ.
I think the Rolo goal was a good goal the puck bounced funny and he was able to get a stick on that was a nice play. I don’t care if Rolo mis-played it. It was that simple of a play to track that do so quickly.
The fact he was able to get into those scoring positions also shows something. Last season he didn’t generate nearly as much in terms of chances and looked out of place with top 9 role. This year he looks different he looks like he fits in in the top 9 role.
If you consider his ability to generate offense without finishing my Carter principal then yes I can applying that to Nodl.
I never questioned Nodl’s D.
Last season he didn’t generate nearly as much in terms of chances and looked out of place with top 9 role
You get shit b/c you don’t know what you are talking about here. He played 10 games last season, averaging under 9 minutes a game. A majority of his minutes came with other Phantom’s call ups (Kalinski, Laliberte, and Ross) and either Aaron Asham or Riley Cote, not with top 9 forwards. In the playoffs last year, he played 65% of his time on the ice with Betts and Powe, you know the 4th line. So when you say thing like that, it further Geoff and I’s point that you weren’t really paying any attention to him in first place to know who he was as a player. You are getting shit for proving yourself to be ill informed and coming to ill informed conclusions of him in the past.
Hope that clears that up for you.
Is this the right room for an argument?
Well he didn’t produce for the the Phantoms in any way the stated top 9 forward now did he? No he played and looked like a 4th line player which is exactly what I called Nodl a solid 4th line guy with hands of stone. But since we have 6 other 4th line guys I didn’t care for Nodl. Carcillo showed ability to move up to the top 9 last season which is why he did and why Carcillo started this season in the top 9 role.
But this year is a different story. Carcillo hasn’t looked like a top 9 guy and got benched giving Nodl another shot at it. And this year Nodl looks a lot better in the position. Nodl got is fair shot to make the top 9 role over the last couple of camps and preseasons and callups and didn’t show anything in the past to me or the coaching that he deserves to be there. This year is not the case.
Please don’t tell me what I know. Jesus so much for doing the right thing I and admit to not being correct about something. I was trying to start a trend of being honest around here.
If I gave enough of a shit I would go back to this summer and pull up everyone comments who called Meszaros a turnover machine, worthless he shouldn’t be playing over Bartulis plenty people said that shit. Maybe not you or Geoff but plenty of people bashed Mez not only for his contract but for his ability to play. But whatever they can just hide and never admit they were wrong and premature to judge him, like I did with Nodl.
Well he didn’t produce for the the Phantoms in any way the stated top 9 forward now did he?
He averaged 0.51 points per game on a horrible Phantoms team. I’m sure you didn’t follow him on the Phantoms to know what he looked like in games, which furthers my point. When you bashed Nodl, you didn’t know anything about him. And you continually bring up things about his past that are either incorrect or that you don’t know the first thing about, which was always my point with you through out the Nodl discussions. I don’t understand how you can say what the guy is as a hockey player without knowing that much about him or the situation he was in…further I don’t know how you can so quickly change that view point b/c of 7 games and 3 fortunate goals (a pace which he will clearly not keep up).
Please don’t tell me what I know.
I’m not telling you what you know, you are showing me what you clearly never knew.
Jesus so much for doing the right thing I and admit to not being correct about somethingKudos for you saying you were wrong about him if that’s what you believe, but it strikes me as odd for you to do so b/c you had so little faith in the guy that I was amazed a whole 7 games would change your mind about him.
Is this the right room for an argument?
Ugh and I forgot to bring up my whole point. If you can so easily change your mind after 7 games on a player, what happens if his next 5 aren’t as good? Does he go back to having hands of stones and a 4th liner at best? That’s really the other major issue I’m getting at here.
Is this the right room for an argument?
I said starting to come around on Nodl I didn’t go out a buy his jersey or anoint him the savior of the franchise and the second coming of Pelle Eklund. I gave the guy the credit he deserved for his last five games.
Ah so, I should read “I willing to admit I was wrong about him.” as “for this current 5 game stretch, which he has impressed me. If he has a poor 5 game stretch I will go back to everything I said originally”
That makes sense.
Is this the right room for an argument?
It seems
that spending the money on Tim Thomas is working out pretty well.
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I'm just saying
Not all of the goaltender contracts are bad.
I don’t really like the Thomas one, but it’s working out.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 9, 2010 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t really like the Thomas one, but it’s working out.
It’s going well for you right now, yes. He looks great at the moment. Overall though, he is vastly overpaid. Over the length of his contract, I doubt he’ll have earned all that money.
But one of the points of that series of articles is that you don’t need to spend that much money on goaltending these days.
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
You do realize he is going to come crashing back to Earth, right? I mean:
He has a 0.968 even-strength save percentage; a 0.980 save percentage on the PK (giving up 1 goal on 49 shots). and a 0.967 save percentage on the PP.
Last year, Vezina trophy winner Ryan Miller had a 0.928 even-strength save percentage, a 0.919 PK save percentage, and a 0.929 PP save percentage.
When Thomas won the Vezina, he had a 0.940 ESS%, 0.905 PKS%, and a 0.933 PPS%.
In other words, holy hell will Thomas regress to the mean. Enjoy it while it lasts, because it won’t last long.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
If I draw Geoff in BSH Secret Santa this year, you can bet he’s getting this…
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B002BVUBK0/
The Daily Forehand -- SB Nation's Tennis Destination.
Broad Street Hockey.
Sweet!
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
So can we all please stop talking of a Carcillo trade? Its inevitible eventually, but don’t talk about it please. I might cry. And I don’t cry (first time I cried in a year and a half was when we lost.). Please move it elsewhere? Please? Seriously I don’t think I can handle it :(
Let's do it again
Man, the second female on this board to get emotional about a Flyer being traded.
Who is next? Someone worrying about Ville Leino being traded because he’s dreamy?
No offense, obviously.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, these females are so much worse than then men that crush on backup goaltenders who might get waived.
I thought exactly that while typing, but figured since I’m outnumbered (Don’s Nodl crush, as far as I know, isn’t quite as creepy as my Boucher crush) by women.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
he has a freakishly large forehead, so no I don’t think anyone will care.
You gotta admit, you get attached to some of them. If Boosh got traded last year in the hight of his career during playoffs last year (that is NOT a comparison to Carcillo, just putting it into context where people would care) you would be emotional too. Its just that Carcillo is one of my favorite players, for many reasons
Let's do it again
I guess I don’t get the “don’t talk about it” sentiment. I talk about my entire family dying of cancer quite often, because if I don’t, I’ll be blown-out-of-the-water-catatonic in the slim chance it happens. I think it’s reasonable to ask you to have a certain level of emotional readiness for a Carcillo trade.
I find irony in that because my gramma is dying of breast cancer (this is her second time having it, and she was born in october. Ironic.) I’m perfectly ok with it, because I can’t stop it. I came to terms with it on my own time, which I plan on applying here.
Wow did I just make that comparison….
Let's do it again
Just to put them out there:
This will obviously create a lot of animosity, so please remember two things: 1) I’m just posting them for funsies; 2) These are only 5-on-5, so they don’t take into account penalty killing.
Okay, Ian Laperriere 2009-2010:
- Second-worst 40.6% offensive zone start;
- Team-worst 44.4% offensive zone finish;
- Third-worst 0.018 QualComp;
- Third-best 0.064 QualTeam;
- Fifth-best 7.89% shooting;
- Fifth-worst 0.916% save;
- Team-worst 1.84 GFON/60;
- Fourth-best 2.38 GAON/60;
- Team-worst -0.54 plus/minusON/60;
- Second-worst 1.38 pts/60.
Terrible zone start, terrible zone finish. weak competition with strong teammates, decent luck in shooting percentages, terrible offense, good defense, terrible plus/minus, terrible scoring.
At 5-on-5, I’ll venture to say he was average-to-below-average. But I don’t think anyone can disagree with that.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
* Third-worst 0.018 QualComp;
* Third-best 0.064 QualTeam;
I just don’t see how that it is possible for him to have such a high QualTeam.
- Fourth-best 2.38 GAON/60 is what it’s all about for me.
Mourning Gagne forever.
QualComp and QualTeam are based off of relative plus/minus, and since Carillo led the team in that category, while Betts was 6th, their numbers were high, thus Lappy’s QualTeam was high (plus whichever defensemen were on the ice).
It’s completely fair that all that matters to you is his GAON/60. But his was below Carcillo, Betts, and Richards. Solid, yes. But if you’re looking at his linemates, he was behind both of them.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
I guess it’s hard to swallow (TWSS) that Betts and Carcillo had among the best rel +/-.
I guess people perceive him to be better because of the “intangibles”. Shot blocking and fighting.
After Lappy fights, the Flyers scored the next goal 48% of the time. Flyers won 52% of the games Lappy fought in.
There were a few results that were probably outliers and affected the results quite a bit
Mourning Gagne forever.
48% of the time is… not so good. But are those stats real? If so, where do you find those?!
I think it’s definitely the “intangibles”. And that’s fine. His contributions come elsewhere.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 8:06 PM EST up reply actions
Those are stats that I laboriously measured by going through all the games where Lappy had a fight. A lot of the time, it was when the team was down or tied though. There are certainly a number of games where the team was always going to lose but he fought anyway
Mourning Gagne forever.
Ah, ok
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 9:56 PM EST up reply actions
To begin a new thread:
Chris, if my 2011-12 lineup (with Brooks Laich) isn’t good enough, what do you think next year’s team will even look like? This is the best I can do when Carter and Leino are re-signed:
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Daniel Briere ($6.500m) / Ville Leino ($2.000m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m) / Jeff Carter ($5.250m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m)
Eric Wellwood ($0.580m) / Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Andreas Nodl ($1.000m)
Darroll Powe ($0.925m) / Blair Betts ($0.700m) / Jody Shelley ($1.100m)
Ian Laperriere ($1.166m)
DEFENSEMEN
Matt Carle ($3.437m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Braydon Coburn ($3.200m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Oskars Bartulis ($0.600m)
Kevin Marshall ($0.845m)
GOALTENDERS
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m) /Michael Leighton ($1.550m)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $61,213,929; BONUSES: $1,837,500
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $23,571
You need the salary cap to go up in that scenario, since you only have 12 healthy forwards and $23k in cap space. And I’m only giving Carter a $250k raise, while capping Leino at $2 million, with Powe getting a $200k raise, and Nodl a $150k raise. Needless to say, those are modest numbers at best.
Your concerns about my lineup: 4 guys without a full year of NHL service – is still true (Nodl, Wellwood, Marshall, and Bartulis) – and 5 (not six) if you count the goalies. Further, what is the NHL depth there? Mike Testwuide.
How is that team any better? The answer is: It isn’t. And it can’t be unless the salary cap goes up, which, believe it or not, my team would be better as well if the salary cap goes up.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
I don’t think Chris would say that team is “better”
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
No it is not better compared to 2010 no team next season is going to be better when Giroux and Leino get the salary raises. It is going to be really hard to improve over this year without the Cap going up.
Agreed
:) That feels good.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
Do you get Edmonton games where you live? Just asking.
In all seriousness, if he took a bit of a pay cut I might take him back next year. I think his price right now is a bit high for his production. Of course, with that recently well written Richards piece, he may just find himself on Richards line again. I wonder how Carcillo-Richards-Zherdev would look? Or maybe Carcillo-Richards-Briere, with Carter going back to center Hartnell and Leino?
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
I don’t like either of those two lines, honestly. I don’t mind Carcillo with Richards, but I don’t know what those two lines are being asked to do.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 7:03 PM EST up reply actions
One Geoff I apologies I thought you posed that lineup as an alternative Bizzaro 2010 lineup compared to what we have now this season. If the Flyers went with cap friendly approach this year.
Basically I forsee the lineup being very similar to what you have with Laich who I really like BTW. But instead of moving Carter I would move Carle and get another 1 million dollar D-Men instead of a 3-4 million dollar forward.
AH! There’s the mistake. Sorry that wasn’t clear.
So you’d have the Jurcina/Jones/Morrison – Bartulis/Gustafsson/Bourdon/Marshall third pair?
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 9, 2010 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
Random Nostalgia Watch:
Listen to the Saunders calls of the Game 7 goals. Anyone have better video of the Wach during these goals than Youtube has to offer? CSNPhilly took down their awesome overhead videos.
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