Leino Disappointed In Not Receiving Offer From Flyers?
I wonder if this has anything to do with his play of late. I hope not, and I hope he sticks around after this year.
over 1 year ago
mikefive
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This would be a big loss. Flyers are flat broke, though—I don’t know how this gets done without a major move (or two).
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Will they?
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 18, 2010 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
3 mil a year is pretty damn good for him.
But thanks to the Flyers woeful cap management they can’t many an offer now, or potentially at the end of the year without moving someone of equal cap hit…Carle?
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That’s kinda high isn’t? He hasn’t even played for a full season. Then again I don’t how to gauge hockey salaries
He’s heading into his prime though, he was an absolute superstar in Finland (I think he might have been the top forward in the top Finnish league) before the Red Wings brought him in expecting him to be the next Zetterberg, but luckily he ended up in our hands. This is his big payday. 3 million is great.
Simon Gagne may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home, but at the end of the day, he will always be a Philadelphia Flyer.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 17, 2010 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
So. You have a handful of NHL stats that might not even be statistically significant – I don’t know want the minimum sample sizes that hockey stats. require to yield anything statistically significant but if they are not enough then the stats are meaningless. Useless your using Bayesian methods your are a slave to the sample size. Now are his stasts.from Finland adjusted for the NHL because if not then you really don’t know for sure how he projects. Perhaps the NHL has a scouting methods accurate enough to project as well as numbers can – this I don’t know.
Hmm well I’m not sure about adjusting stats from Finland for the NHL, but considering VUKOTA can’t do Zherdev after his one season in the KHL I’ll guess that there’s no real objective method to transfer the stats between the two leagues. He did have 46 points in 57 games in the AHL after transferring to North American rinks. But that doesn’t really say much.
You’re right – we are a slave to small sample size – but that just means you have to use more subjective measures. I.e. being awarded the league MVP in the season before he comes to North America, playing well in his first season in North America, tyring the record for points by a rookie in the playoffs in his second season in North America, and just generally looking like a solid NHL player in his third season in North America.
Simon Gagne may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home, but at the end of the day, he will always be a Philadelphia Flyer.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 17, 2010 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
I guess as there isn’t an established methodology to do this what makes him think that other teams would pay this much for him? And I would think that these more subjective measures are more acceptable with prospects in so far as prospects don’t come with the financial risk if they fail. That is, your have more cushion in terms of the precision of the projection. Obviously Leino is less of a mystery than a prospect and deserves more than what he’s getting but 3 million is a bit bold at least now – perhaps at the end of the season it would make more sense. Still I’m shooting from the hip. You hockey folks might be able to see more to him then me.
Crazy how much he parallels Jayson Werh – the dude looks like Jayson Werth, is this late comer mystery player who turns out is good like Werth and is now looking for his big FA deal like Werth. Bigger is a relative term here. If the parallel holds he best watch it or could end up on the Islanders. But the sad thing is, parallel stops here; we couldn’t get the Cliff Lee of Hockey who ever that might be…stoopid cap.
No offence to the Finnish league, but that can’t fully be taken into account. It got him over here, yes, but that’s really all it attests to. In the NHL he can’t be paid based on an inferior league. His play here nets him a max, I think of 2.8, but 3…fine.
It was more a testament of his potential as a dominant player. But I can see where you’re coming from.
Simon Gagne may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home, but at the end of the day, he will always be a Philadelphia Flyer.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 19, 2010 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
Sigh.
Contributor at The Brotherly Game, SBN's Philadelphia Union blog
$3 million?
Hey, didn’t the Flyers dump something around 5 million last offseason? Should be enough, eh?

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That still requires moving a salary to get either one.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 18, 2010 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
If you keep Leino and move Zherdev, then the salary is almost fully accounted for.
Mourning Gagne forever.
But Giroux’s raise already spends Zherdev’s salary and then some; so how does moving Zherdev account for Leino?
by DragonGirl0583 on Dec 18, 2010 8:17 PM EST up reply actions
If even you are missing this fact, I should write a story.
But then I’ll get labeled as fervently Anti-Homer, a party-pooper, and a parade-shitter-on-er. People need to look at CapGeek, and they’ll realize the Flyers have about $4 million to spend on 4 forwards, after accounting for a $3 million cap increase.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 18, 2010 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
I blame it on the weekend. I was hoping this thread would get lost somehow and no one would have to see my stupidity again.
I’d wait on the party-pooper, especially as the team is going well. Wait for a long break when no one has anything to talk about.
Mourning Gagne forever.
But with Lappy not even on LTIR, what am I getting wrong? If we replace nik z with someone making around 1.2mil we should be okay. This is also assuming we keep Walker and Leighton, who replaced, would probably account for an extra million.
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Daniel Briere ($6.500m) / Ville Leino ($2.800m)
Andreas Nodl ($0.950m) / Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m) / Jeff Carter ($5.272m) / Nikolai Zherdev ($1.200m)
Jody Shelley ($1.100m) / Blair Betts ($0.700m) / Darroll Powe ($0.900m)
Eric Wellwood ($0.580m) / /
Ian Laperriere ($1.166m)
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Matt Carle ($3.437m)
Braydon Coburn ($3.200m) / Matt Walker ($1.700m)
Oskars Bartulis ($0.600m)
GOALTENDERS
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m) /Michael Leighton ($1.550m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $62,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $64,015,823; BONUSES: $1,700,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $84,177
There is no bonus cushion.
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Daniel Briere ($6.500m) / Ville Leino ($2.800m)
Andreas Nodl ($0.950m) / Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m) / Jeff Carter ($5.272m) / Nikolai Zherdev ($2.800m)
Jody Shelley ($1.100m) / Blair Betts ($0.700m) / Darroll Powe ($0.900m)
/ Ian Laperriere ($1.166m) / Eric Wellwood ($0.580m)
DEFENSEMEN
Matt Carle ($3.437m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Braydon Coburn ($3.200m) / Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Matt Walker ($1.700m)
Oskars Bartulis ($0.600m)
GOALTENDERS
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m) /Michael Leighton ($1.550m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $62,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $65,615,823; BONUSES: $1,700,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): -$3,215,823
Also, Zherdev is not going to take less money next season.
Mourning Gagne forever.
I mean, I included the bonuses but I also included Lappy’s caphit and two players who shouldn’t be here(Leighton and Walker). So if we take out Lappy’s caphit due to LTIR and even trim down one of Leighton and Walker, we can handle the bonuses. We’re also assuming everyone gets the bonuses.
I’m not exactly sure how that would work regarding Lappy’s cap on LTIR, but I’m not sure only having room due to a player being on LTIR is ideal. Hopefully at least one of Leighton and Walker will be gone. It doesn’t matter if they acheive their bonuses next season, there has to be cap space to account for it as there might not be a season afterwards as the CBA is expiring.
Mourning Gagne forever.
We are doing the same thing with Lappy this year. I understand it’s not ideal, but such is life under a salary cap. Further, I don’t think the following season’s CBA expiration has any ramifications contingent upon next years salary cap. Or am I missing something(is that why there is no bonus cushion in the first place)?
It is expressly stated deep within Article 50 that there is no bonus cushion in the last year of the CBA. If you’d like the exact wording, see a previous explanation here.
by DragonGirl0583 on Dec 19, 2010 8:48 PM EST up reply actions
If the Flyers let Zherdev walk after this year, they have 2 million more to play with. They can help themselves by ditching Walker and Leighton as well… preferably for draft picks. Boucher will also be gone after this season, as will O’Donnell.
The Flyers will technically have money to do it, but they won’t be able to take care of it during the season. Plus, they’ll have others who need re-signing… Nodl, Powe, possibly Carcillo, and a defenseman. Backlund will be one of the goalies next year.
"Darroll can't see it, blind to the eyes;
He came up in your face OOPS POWE SURPRISE!"
Man-crushin' on #36 since he hit his "absolute ceiling" as a rookie in 2008.
Mike, you can’t just look at contracts expiring and say “they have money”.
Having no bonus cushion next year cuts ~$1.7 million off the Flyers cap. Having penalties against the cap next year – as a result of being on LTIR this year, and at least Nodl making his bonuses – will take more money off the cap.
They are already committed to spending ~$59.28 million next year, on 9 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goalies. That’s $120,000 under this year’s cap, minus bonuses earned this year, plus whatever cap increase comes in the offseason. But you have to sign 4 forwards, including Leino.
Obviously, you can get rid of Walker and LTIR Laperriere, but none of those moves do enough to sign Leino. Instead, those moves let you dress three really, really inexpensive players.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 18, 2010 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
Sorta of what I was thinking – is he really worth 3 million on just what we know and even if he is, does that mean he’s still more valuable then 3 players?
I think he’s worth between $2.5 and $3.25, hopefully closer to $2.5.
Is that more valuable than 3 players? No, but that’s damn good value. The question should be is Walker more valuable than 2 players?
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 18, 2010 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
In answer to your question
What I gather from the general tone regarding Walker by BSHers, not really.
I don’t see how anybody can argue that he is, with the Flyers already spending any salary cap increase for next season and needing 4 additional players.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 19, 2010 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
Hopefully once the new markets are established we might see a softer cap. This is getting a bit ridculous. Teams need more rewards for their success. Going to sporting events is a luxury expense and fans don’t just go to see hockey but their team play hockey and their favorite players. If the NHL keeps this up everyone will know what it’s like to be a Royals fan as they, every few years, see their players get traded or ditched when they qualify for free agency. The idea of leveling the playing field is fine but to a point.
I hate this argument. I really do.
Only baseball doesn’t have a salary cap, and even then the Phillies had to make a choice to let Jayson Werth go.
But why is it the cap’s fault that the Flyers chose Jeff Carter and Claude Giroux over Ville Leino? And we all knew this was going to happen when the team went and acquired Andrej Meszaros.
Don’t blame the cap for players leaving. Blame the team.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 19, 2010 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, I was talking about the cap in general which in principle has merit though I disagree with how the NHL implements it. I don’t see how a hard cap can be sustained without a greater attrition rate like football because with the average player lasting 4 years NFL teams can keep players salaries more manageable. Also, the NHL’s guaranteed contracts while protecting the player make matters more problematic. And the NFL enormous TV revenues can be evenly distributed to every team so they can easily cover their player bonuses. The NHL cap has only been around for four years, and the introduction of such radical change will have created variables whose futures effects can’t be accounted for just yet. I don’t see it working and believe a soft cap the more equitable solution. Their might be more inequities than with the hard cap but I think there’s enough randomness in the game to help neutralize these advantages. However in baseball the randomness isn’t enough to create a more level playing field and a soft cap or more measures like the luxury tax could help. Something like rotating teams out of their divisions is a common theme in the sabr community.
As to the Flyers, if cap mismanagement some how effects our chance a post season run next season then so be it. I didn’t wring my hands over Werth nor will I with Leino. That doesn’t change my position that this cap is the wrong fit for the NHL. Besides, I’m used to wandering thru the desert for 20 years witnessing failure after failure after failure for 6 months every summer. While the Phillies are dominating now, the Flyers have contended year after year – they are still, historically speaking, the gem of the Philly sport franchises. The Flyers get a mulligan or two from me. So will the Phillies once this run is done.
I’m going to try to parse this out as best I can, but I admit I don’t know much about hard and soft caps.
First, there are definitely flaws in the salary cap. How many of them get fixed after this year (in the negotiations) are unknown, but I think, in general, the cap is doing a fairly good job. Small market teams are able to compete and large-market teams are able to stack their lineups.
As far as the attrition factor goes, every sport except football has guaranteed contracts. I never liked that about the NFL, as it’s not only unfair to the players (they can get cut, but they can’t demand more money like DeSean Jackson deserves), and it gives owners an easy out. Don’t you think the Devils would have just cut Brian Rolston, or the Rangers cut Wade Redden, or the Blackhawks cut Cristobal Huet? At least now the teams have to pay their salary to not play on their teams. It keeps owners leery of giving out bad contracts.
Moving to NFL TV revenues, I think it’s impossible to compare the two. The NHL plays 82 games while the NFL plays 16. Networks air maybe two games a week, and they cover every game. That cannot happen in the NHL, it just can’t.
I don’t know what “randomness” you are talking about when you say a soft cap would even out in hockey, so I can’t respond to that. So while I’m not convinced this is the right cap for the NHL, I don’t like the NFL’s cap and I don’t think a luxury tax system like MLB would be enough to keep the NHL in business.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 21, 2010 1:12 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with you, but I’d add that I think the NHL needs a hard cap to keep the floor teams in business. But they need to change the way it’s calculated so that it doesn’t go up so much each year. In Philadelphia that will hurt us, but we need to learn to make better decisions anyway. The fact that the salary cap floor in 2009-10 was higher than the 2005-06 ceiling, a mere 4 years of growth, means there was a fatal flaw in the cap calculation formula.
by DragonGirl0583 on Dec 21, 2010 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
Excellent point.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 23, 2010 8:38 PM EST up reply actions
I was unclear.
What I was suggesting is that they could probably do “just enough” to sign Leino, but they wouldn’t be able to do enough to sign him AND fill all of the holes on their team.
In other words, if they’re willing to sign Leino for what he wants, it probably means they’d be forced to do another “Gagne trade” this summer because they could sign him and no one else otherwise.
"Darroll can't see it, blind to the eyes;
He came up in your face OOPS POWE SURPRISE!"
Man-crushin' on #36 since he hit his "absolute ceiling" as a rookie in 2008.
Okay, that’s the entire point.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 18, 2010 11:41 PM EST up reply actions
Next season, I don’t think our situation will be nearly as bad as Chicago’s was THIS year, but it isn’t looking pretty either.
"Darroll can't see it, blind to the eyes;
He came up in your face OOPS POWE SURPRISE!"
Man-crushin' on #36 since he hit his "absolute ceiling" as a rookie in 2008.
Chicago’s situation wasn’t nearly as bad as everyone thinks. Who were the biggest pieces they lost? Kris Versteeg and Dustin Byfuglien. Everybody else were easily replaceable role players, and when you factor in that Chicago actually had draft picks able to graduate to the NHL (Jack Skille, Bryan Bickell, and Jake Dowell), they were not in too bad of a situation.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 19, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
Okay, but you certainly don’t want to be in a situation where you’re replacing a couple of somewhat-important people, both goalies, and spare parts.
Chicago’s situation may not prove itself to be “as bad as everyone thinks” in the long run, depending on how their young players develop. For now, though, things ain’t lookin’ so hot for them. Here are their records through 34 games for the past three seasons (this one included).
- 2008-09: 20-7-7, 47 points
- 2009-10: 23-8-3, 49 points
- 2010-11: 17-14-3, 37 points, 9th in the conference
This may prove to be a transition year for them, and their younger players may develop according to plan. Fortunately for them, they just won the Cup.
Byfuglien is leading his team in scoring, and Versteeg is on pace to score over 20 goals. Right now, they have a combined 21 between them (11 for Buf, 10 for Versteeg).
It’s worth noting because half of the Blackhawks’ regulation losses are by one goal. And two of their three OT losses actually happened in the OT period (as opposed to the shootout).
Even though the Hawks’ problem has much more to do with team defense/goaltending (24th of 30) than offense (4th of 30), you can bet they’d be happy with those 21 extra goals in their lineup right now.
"Darroll can't see it, blind to the eyes;
He came up in your face OOPS POWE SURPRISE!"
Man-crushin' on #36 since he hit his "absolute ceiling" as a rookie in 2008.
First, thanks for that last sentence because I don’t have to go look that up.
But that would be one of my counterarguments: If the biggest pieces they lost were on offense, how can you blame their “poor” record this year on their offseason moves?
Second, I put poor in quotes because they just won today, but they’re only 1 point lower than the third-best team in the West. It’s pretty tough to say they’re playing badly.
Third, Hossa has missed 14 games with injury, Campbell has missed 13 games, and Bolland has missed 7. They’re battling injuries, and still right in the thick of the playoff race.
Lastly, they are getting killed with goaltending. They’re 23rd in team GAA, mainly because Marty Turco has a 0.896 save percentage. You could say “see, they lost both their goalies from last year!” but no many people would say Huet or Niemi (0.897 s%) are the reason.
In short, the Blackhawks didn’t lose important parts, they replaced them with homegrown talent, and they’re one point away from third-best team in the West. I’d say things are looking just fine for them.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 19, 2010 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
I didn’t bring up goaltending per se (other than to lump it in with defense), though I’m sure if they had their druthers, they’d rather have Niemi over Turco. Crawford is doing pretty well for them, all things considered.
With such a tightly-knit group in the West, and with so much talent out there, are things really looking “just fine” for them? True, they’ve battled injuries, and I’m sure they’ll make the playoffs, but do you really expect them to do anything once they get there? For that to happen, everyone has to stay healthy and they need a significant upgrade in goaltending… they have very little cap space at this point ($615,866 as of today, per CapGeek) so that doesn’t help unless someone wants Marty Turco in return.
Furthermore, before next season they will have to sign 7 forwards, 4 defensemen, and 2 goalies. Their $615,866 in space gives them some more flexibility than the Flyers have right now, but not much (someone earning 100K more than league minimum).
I don’t know what their prospect system is looking like right now, and maybe they have some more players they feel will be ready to join The Big Club next year. But if I’m them, I certainly hope so given their cap situation and their roster needs for next season.
While the Flyers have zero cap space, they only have to sign six players for next season (five forwards and a defenseman). The Flyers will have to cast off some spare parts, and likely even trade another contract player to make room for either Zherdev or Leino PLUS fill in their other holes. The Flyers are not in an enviable position by any stretch, and I’m not defending the actions of Homer/Hanrahan et. al., but I’d rather be in the Flyers’ shoes after this year than the Blackhawks’.
"Darroll can't see it, blind to the eyes;
He came up in your face OOPS POWE SURPRISE!"
Man-crushin' on #36 since he hit his "absolute ceiling" as a rookie in 2008.
They’ve also got $17 million + whatever cap increase to fill those spots.
I just don’t see how the Blackhawks are this team that is totally fucked. They appeared to be last year, and they got out of that keeping their 4 best forwards and 4 best defensemen, i.e. their core. And next year, they have a lot of holes to fill, with TONS of cash to do it.
But the point is that the two teams aren’t comparable. A) Chicago won a Cup; B) Tallon put them in an impossible situation and got fired; C) Bowman managed to get them out of it with minor damage; D) They locked up their core; E) And they have a ton of cap space this summer, when the new CBA is being negotiated.
If the Flyers don’t win the Cup this year, I’d trade places with the Blackhawks in a heart beat. If the Flyers do win the Cup this year, they’re situation will be better than the Hawks’ after last year, yes. But the Blackhawks had young talent capable of stepping up, and they have cap space to fill the holes if that experiment fails.
The Flyers are locked into this core for years, win or lose.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 19, 2010 11:50 PM EST up reply actions
The Hawks are not “totally fucked,” but I still don’t see their situation as ideal.
Say the cap goes up 3 million dollars. The Hawks have to fill 13 roster spots with a bit over 20 million dollars. Looks pretty good, I’ll agree.
The wildcard in their situation is one of their core guys, Brent Seabrook. He’s an RFA after this year. He’s well on his way to a career year already and is just entering his prime at age 25. Problem is, he’s earning 3.5 million now. He’s going to command a raise, no doubt.
I’m going to be very generous and say the Hawks will lock him up for a 5.5 million cap hit for the next x years. That leaves them a bit more than 14.5 million to sign 12 players.
Bowman did a nice job with the team and averted the potential disaster that Tallon could have caused. However, that doesn’t mean they won’t have to face some tough choices down the road.
I’m not really trying to compare the Flyers and Blackhawks; I just want to point out that all “contending” teams are going to face some hard choices in their futures, not just the Flyers.
"Darroll can't see it, blind to the eyes;
He came up in your face OOPS POWE SURPRISE!"
Man-crushin' on #36 since he hit his "absolute ceiling" as a rookie in 2008.
I don’t disagree with your point at all. I will say, however, that since Seabrook is an RFA, there’s little chance he gets $5.5 million. If any team offers him that, Chicago should let him walk. They’ll still have Keith, Campbell, and Hjalmarsson, so even if they let him walk, they should still have a decent defense.
But back to the main point: It’s not that the Flyers are alone in their cap problems, or even that they are worse than most. It’s that the problems have numerous solutions if the team chooses, none of which they seem likely to make; the team is paying for their mistakes this past offseason (Leighton, Walker, and Shelley specifically); and people don’t realize that the Flyers can’t just “spend Zherdev’s money on Leino”.
That last point is what started this whole thing. So, as long as people realize that, I’ll be happy.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 20, 2010 1:58 AM EST up reply actions
[The] Flyers can’t just "spend Zherdev’s money on Leino"… So, as long as people realize that, I’ll be happy.
You realize it, I realize it, and the American people realize it!
/bobdole
"Darroll can't see it, blind to the eyes;
He came up in your face OOPS POWE SURPRISE!"
Man-crushin' on #36 since he hit his "absolute ceiling" as a rookie in 2008.
Dont worry Ville
You will surely have a job next year. I hope it is still in Philadelphia, but I am sure that there isn’t a team in this league that wouldn’t want a hard working, puck possession type offensive skill player on their lineup, definitely a top 6 forward robbed from Detroit.
Now can I blame Shelly and Walker?
Laperriere is my hero
Carcillo's my lover
Bobrovsky's my savior
Hockeys my life
Hold on, does the tagging rule include Zherdev seeing as his contract is coming off the books next season?
Anyway, get rid of Walker and Shelley and you’ve got the 3 million to sign Leino long before the offseason. I can’t believe the Flyers let it get to this, and I will be very sad if Ville Leino takes his amazing chemistry and amazing play to another team because the Flyers management can’t add or subtract proficiently.
Simon Gagne may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home, but at the end of the day, he will always be a Philadelphia Flyer.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 17, 2010 9:22 PM EST reply actions
Please, please, please, please, please let the cap go up next year!
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