Scoring Chances for Game 34 vs the NY Rangers

by George E. Ays on Dec 19, 2010 12:01 AM EST

Ed. Note: Bumped to the front page for sheer awesomeness. Thank you to both Todd and, more importantly, George, for doing this.

Over the course of the season, I've been tracking scoring chances for the New York Rangers as part of a project that currently covers several teams in the NHL. At the behest of frequent commenter ToddtheFox, I'm taking the data from Saturday's game and cross-posting here, though of course switching the data to the Philadelphia Flyers' perspective. Here's the definition of a scoring chance that is being used:

A scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included, but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score.

The whole thing is made possible thanks to the efforts of Vic Ferrari at Irreverant Oiler Fans and timeonice.com.

For the Rangers' perspective, check out Blueshirt Banter. For previous games for the Rangers, check out my site, Tracking the Rangers. Finally, for the data for this game, continue reading:

Top Individual Performances: Flyers - Nikolay Zherdev, 4 chances (2 goals); Rangers - 4 tied w/ 2 chances

Top ES Forwards: Ville Leino +6, Danny Briere +5, Scott Hartnell +5

Bottom ES Forwards: Jeff Carter -3, Dan Carcillo -1

Top ES Defenseman: Oskars Bartulis +4

Bottom ES Defenseman: Andrej Meszaros -3

The breakdown by score, at even strength:

	PHI	NYR	Time
Leading	14	9	29:44
Tied	5	5	18:52
Trailing	0	0	0:00

The Head to Head Chart (click to enlarge):

Finally, the raw data:

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20473

Team	Period	Time	Note	PHI						Opponent
NYR	1	17:11	Dubinsky Defl MS	17	21	25	33	36	41	17	23	30	31	38	44	5v5
PHI	1	15:18	Van Riemsdyk	17	21	25	33	41	93	17	23	30	33	44		5v4
PHI	1	15:17	Van Riemsdyk	17	21	25	33	41	93	17	23	30	33	44		5v4
PHI	1	15:06	Carle MS	17	21	25	33	41	93	17	23	30	33	44		5v4
NYR	1	14:43	Fedotenko	13	17	25	33	41	93	16	18	19	30	33	42	5v5
NYR	1	12:29	Staal	6	18	25	28	33		5	17	18	19	30	31	4v5
PHI	1	10:38	Van Riemsdyk	3	6	17	21	33	93	16	23	30	32	38	44	5v5
PHI	1	9:31	Briere	18	19	28	33	44	48	5	8	17	30	38		5v4
PHI	1	7:54	Zherdev MS	5	28	33	44	93		4	5	17	18	26	30	4v5
PHI	1	5:31	Hartnell	5	19	22	25	33	48	10	21	26	30	38	44	5v5
PHI	1	0:09	Hartnell	5	19	22	25	33	48	4	16	22	30	32	33	5v5
NYR	2	18:54	Gaborik Defl MS	3	6	19	22	33	48	4	10	19	26	30	33	5v5
PHI	2	16:45	Van Riemsdyk	3	6	17	21	33	93	16	23	30	32	38	44	5v5
NYR	2	16:23	Sauer	6	17	21	33	41	93	4	8	16	23	30	38	5v5
NYR	2	14:09	Christensen Post	6	17	21	33	41	93	4	10	21	26	30	33	5v5
PHI	2	11:23	Richards MS	6	18	28	33	41		5	10	22	26	30	33	4v5
PHI	2	10:54	Zherdev Goal	6	18	28	33	41	93	4	10	22	26	30	33	5v5
PHI	2	8:52	Richards	15	18	25	28	33	41	5	17	18	30	31	42	5v5
PHI	2	8:26	Powe MS	3	6	11	13	33	36	4	8	19	22	30	33	5v5
NYR	2	5:46	Weise	15	17	25	28	33	41	5	16	18	23	30	32	5v5
PHI	2	3:39	Carle MS	21	22	25	33	41	48	8	19	22	30	38	44	5v5
PHI	2	2:34	Carter	3	6	17	21	33	93	5	10	18	21	26	30	5v5
NYR	2	1:46	Gaborik	15	18	25	28	33	41	5	10	17	18	26	30	5v5
PHI	2	1:28	Carcillo	13	18	25	33	36	41	4	10	21	26	30	33	5v5
NYR	2	0:05	Boyle	5	17	21	33	44	48	5	17	18	30	31	42	5v5
PHI	3	16:48	Briere	5	6	19	22	33	48	21	26	30	32	38	44	5v5
PHI	3	16:41	Nodl Goal	5	15	18	28	33	44	4	10	21	26	30	33	5v5
PHI	3	15:49	Briere	5	19	22	33	44	48	5	8	18	19	22	30	5v5
NYR	3	11:58	Stepan MS	3	6	17	21	33	93	18	21	26	30	31	33	5v5
NYR	3	11:43	Frolov MS	3	6	17	21	33	93	18	21	26	30	31	33	5v5
NYR	3	11:38	Stepan Goal	3	6	17	21	33	93	18	21	26	30	31	33	5v5
PHI	3	10:04	Leino Goal Defl	5	19	22	33	44	48	4	8	19	22	30	33	5v5
PHI	3	8:50	Zherdev	3	6	17	21	33	93	16	23	30	32	33	38	5v5
NYR	3	8:41	Dubinsky	5	15	18	28	33	44	10	17	23	30	33	38	5v5
PHI	3	7:59	Hartnell MS	3	6	19	22	33	48	5	8	18	19	22	30	5v5
NYR	3	6:05	Boyle MS	11	13	25	33	36	41	5	8	18	19	22	30	5v5
PHI	3	4:54	Zherdev Goal	17	21	25	33	41	93	5	8	22	30	38		5v4
NYR	3	3:57	Avery Post	11	13	25	33	36	41	16	23	30	32	33	38	5v5
PHI	3	2:18	Carter	3	6	17	21	33	93	5	8	18	19	22	30	5v5
PHI	3	1:22	Betts	11	15	25	33	36	41	16	23	30	31	38	44	5v5
PHI	1	10:37	Carter Rbd	3	6	17	21	33	93	16	23	30	32	38	44	5v5

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
3	O. BARTULIS	12:51	8	4	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
5	B. COBURN	19:09	6	2	0:00	0	0	2:59	1	0
6	S. O'DONNELL	13:49	10	6	0:00	0	0	3:02	1	1
11	B. BETTS	9:03	2	2	0:00	0	0	3:49	0	0
13	D. CARCILLO	8:46	2	3	0:07	0	0	0:00	0	0
15	A. NODL	10:51	3	3	0:00	0	0	0:18	0	0
17	J. CARTER	14:25	6	9	2:27	4	0	0:18	0	0
18	M. RICHARDS	10:50	4	2	3:00	1	0	1:53	1	1
19	S. HARTNELL	14:38	6	1	3:00	1	0	0:00	0	0
21	J. VAN RIEMSDYK	12:26	7	7	2:17	4	0	0:00	0	0
22	V. LEINO	15:31	7	1	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
25	M. CARLE	16:55	6	6	2:24	4	0	0:52	0	1
28	C. GIROUX	10:23	3	3	3:00	1	0	1:51	2	1
33	B. BOUCHER	48:36	19	14	5:24	5	0	6:00	2	1
36	D. POWE	9:32	3	3	0:00	0	0	3:33	0	0
41	A. MESZAROS	17:21	5	8	2:24	4	0	2:09	1	0
44	K. TIMONEN	17:10	3	2	3:00	1	0	2:58	1	0
48	D. BRIERE	15:02	7	2	2:57	1	0	0:03	0	0
93	N. ZHERDEV	13:25	7	6	2:24	4	0	0:15	1	0

Period	Totals		EV		PP		5v3 PP		SH		5v3 SH
1	9	3	4	2	4	0	0	0	1	1	0	0
2	8	6	7	6	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
3	9	6	8	6	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	26	15	19	14	5	0	0	0	2	1	0	0

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by Broad Street Hockey.

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Comments

this is some real nerd shit.

I haven’t gotten into this stuff for hockey yet… but I do speak the language lol. Baseball? forget it, I’m all over the BABIPs, contact% and all that. Its great to explore widely accepted “facts” and beliefs about certain players and see if they actually hold up. And if any of you actually look at these after every game and track trends and stuff you should probably be in a front office somewhere.

Do you guys use this for fantasy hockey as well?

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by NYflyGUY on Dec 19, 2010 12:43 AM EST reply actions

Scoring chance data is only collected for ~10 teams in the league. There are other advanced stats, and if you want to learn about them go to www.behindthenethockey.com.

I dream of the day when adv stats are used in fantasy leagues.

Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Dec 19, 2010 2:02 AM EST up reply actions

Less than that. Oilers, Leafs, Canadiens, Caps, Flames, Panthers, and Rangers this year.

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by George E. Ays on Dec 19, 2010 10:31 AM EST up reply actions

It’s impressive that 4/6 Canadian teams have scoring chance recorders. Is there somewhere I could find all this data?

Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Dec 19, 2010 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

Derek over at Copper and Blue is hounding us all to compile it into one place…but here’s the sources:

Oilers – http://www.mc79hockey.com/
Leafs – http://sd24leafsblog.blogspot.com/
Panthers – http://www.litterboxcats.com/
Caps – Neil @ http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/ has them in a google docs link somewhere, I can’t find it this instant
Flames – http://flamesnation.ca/
Canadiens – http://enattendantlesnordiques.blogspot.com/

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by George E. Ays on Dec 19, 2010 3:59 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks. I might see if I can compile the data for the games the Flyers have made. It will be a ridiculously small sample size, but could be interesting nonetheless.

Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Dec 19, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions

It should be around 15-20, though, right?

4 Leafs, Panthers, Caps, and Canadiens;

1 Oilers and Flames?

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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 19, 2010 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

I was thinking about doing it now though.

Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Dec 19, 2010 4:16 PM EST up reply actions

Can you even watch every game?

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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 19, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

Sorry, I mean compile the data for the games that have been played.

Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Dec 19, 2010 4:55 PM EST up reply actions

Plus the 6 Rangers

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by George E. Ays on Dec 19, 2010 4:20 PM EST up reply actions

haha, right.

Brain fart.

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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 19, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

So your telling me that out of all our defenseman, Oskars had the most scoring chances, while Mezaros had the most scoring chances against? That doesn’t seem right.

by Parduno on Dec 19, 2010 1:47 AM EST reply actions

Feel free to rewatch the game and use your own scoring chance metric. I’m sure most of the data collectors would agree it’s not entirely objective, but by the same person watching all 82 games in a teams season the error would decrease.

You can’t just compare Bartulis vs Meszaros directly, as the played against different competition. Bartulis played mostly against Prust, Boyle and Avery (and dominated them), whereas Mes played mostly against Anisimov, Frolov and Dubinsky. What is strange is that Mes and Carle got dominated by the Drury line and Bartulis and O’Donnell played really well against them.

Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Dec 19, 2010 2:01 AM EST up reply actions

I’m sure most of the data collectors would agree it’s not entirely objective, but by the same person watching all 82 games in a teams season the error would decrease.

In terms of player data, it’s objective. I didn’t consciously find spots where Meszaros was on and credit things extra because of it.

Games where we have two trackers (Leafs-Rangers, for instance), the data that comes out is usually pretty darn close, with the differences generally coming on the boundaries of the imaginary area.

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by George E. Ays on Dec 19, 2010 10:58 AM EST up reply actions

It’s not the most chances, but the biggest differential while he’s on the ice. As Todd said, he was against our 3rd and 4th lines, and was on the ice alot when JVR-Carter-Zherdev were having their field days against what appears to be Stepan-Christensen-Frolov. Weird things like that will happen in one game samples.

Also remember it doesn’t count the PP time..so the 5 chances they generated on special teams weren’t counted (though Meszaros still only would’ve been +2)

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by George E. Ays on Dec 19, 2010 10:30 AM EST up reply actions

This is fantastic work, and I wish a Flyers fan would start doing it. Thanks, George and feel free to post the results after future Flyers games.

Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Dec 19, 2010 1:50 AM EST reply actions

No problem.

I do warn anyone who will take the project, don’t bother unless you have a DVR and a bunch of spare time. The more the merrier though, our goal is to eventually get all the teams doing it.

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by George E. Ays on Dec 19, 2010 10:41 AM EST up reply actions

haha, I wanted to do it this year, but can’t justify the amount of time that will take up.

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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 19, 2010 12:39 PM EST up reply actions

I’m glad to see that you have grasped just how valuable your time is. When you get to be one of them thar’ short-timers like me you will appreciate it even more.

I know that for some people there is great joy in crunching all kinds of data in order to enhance their hockey experience. That’s fine, power to you. But I find it distracts me from doing other more important things. I mean I am capable of understanding these things but then I look up at the clock and realize I’ve lost an hour and that my head hurts. I’d offer a parallel example but I’m sure it would just bore you. Any way, my thanks to all who do such work as I find it helpful.

Oh, and a facetious thanks to Travis for indicating the other day that O’Donnell is “ancient”. Grrrrrrr

by mtitanic on Dec 19, 2010 3:53 PM EST up reply actions

haha, I do waste a ton of time with hockey statistics. I’ve been tracking Flyers Corsi and Fenwick in a giant spreadsheet, as well as zone starts, but I can’t justify watching every Flyers game in slow-motion after I watch it live.

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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 19, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions

I take care of it live when I can, just jumping back and slowing down when I have to. With fast forwarding through commercials/intermissions, it takes maybe 75 minutes per game, give or take.

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by George E. Ays on Dec 19, 2010 4:21 PM EST up reply actions

That’s dedication. I couldn’t do that because I feel like I’d be missing part of the game, even though I’d just see it later.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 19, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

‘tis true, having to follow the puck and shots has meant I can’t concentrate on some other things, so I’ve tried to mix it up and just watch some strictly for enjoyment….it’s definitely a larger task than I anticipated.

Blueshirt Banter - Where Rangers' Fans Matter
Tracking the Rangers - Numbers don't lie. They just don't agree with you.
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by George E. Ays on Dec 19, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions

This is amazing. Echo Todd’s sentiments: I would love to have this after every game.

Anyway:

Top ES Forwards: Ville Leino +6, Danny Briere +5, Scott Hartnell +5

Classic LBH

Simon Gagne may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home, but at the end of the day, he will always be a Philadelphia Flyer.

by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 19, 2010 2:15 AM EST reply actions

Why does Carbomb have a minus? There would have been a goal with him on ice, but it was retracted.

Laperriere is my hero
Carcillo's my lover
Bobrovsky's my savior
Hockeys my life

by Cillo stache on Dec 19, 2010 9:27 AM EST reply actions

Its because the minus is for scoring chances, not goals?

by MrSavageHenry on Dec 19, 2010 9:32 AM EST up reply actions

This isn’t tracking goals, instead it’s tracking chances for goals. So Carcillo was on the ice for more Ranger opportunities than Flyers ones.

by ohnickels on Dec 19, 2010 9:33 AM EST up reply actions

This makes me laugh.

BOILER UP!! 2010-2011

"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard

by EREX21 on Dec 19, 2010 10:59 AM EST up reply actions

Why?

Laperriere is my hero
Carcillo's my lover
Bobrovsky's my savior
Hockeys my life

by Cillo stache on Dec 19, 2010 11:55 AM EST up reply actions

Because you couldn’t have read the entire article and then asked the question you did.

Seems like you saw that Carcillo was -1 and jumped to question/defend.

BOILER UP!! 2010-2011

"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard

by EREX21 on Dec 19, 2010 12:50 PM EST up reply actions

I actually I did read it, just was really confused. I’m not a huge stat’s person so I didn’t really get that the +/- meant different things in this instance

Laperriere is my hero
Carcillo's my lover
Bobrovsky's my savior
Hockeys my life

by Cillo stache on Dec 19, 2010 2:45 PM EST up reply actions

Why so? Seems likely, it’s an energy line, not a dynamic scoring line, he’s on, so that means that they’re going to spend less time in the offensive zone making the crazy-ass plays you might see LBH making.

by VorAbaddon on Dec 19, 2010 11:59 AM EST up reply actions

Oh I agree with you. The fact that Carcillo was -1 in this category is not surprising at all, nor is it any indictment of his skills at all.

BOILER UP!! 2010-2011

"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard

by EREX21 on Dec 19, 2010 12:49 PM EST up reply actions

My first foray into “sabermetrics” was reading the book “Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game”. I’m not a baseball fanatic like I am hockey, but I often wondered how far we could go using the same principles for hockey (and there are times when I feel that hockey is a VERY unfair game!).

While I’ve been a hockey fan all my life, your statistical approach to hockey is a new area for me and I’m pretty excited about it. I look forward to more of your work, thanks.

"You miss 100% of the shots you never take." - Wayne Gretzky

by Nico97 on Dec 19, 2010 9:28 AM EST reply actions

This is great work – thanks! Also glad to see even more evidence of the HBL line’s badassery.

by ww2b on Dec 19, 2010 10:12 AM EST reply actions

It’s more impressive to me because Fedotenko-Boyle-Prust has been our biggest plus line all season, it’s been difficult for teams to outchance them, let alone that badly.

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by George E. Ays on Dec 19, 2010 10:34 AM EST up reply actions

Maybe I’m missing something here, but is there any type of descriptors for those columns? Did I miss a link somewhere?

"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27

by Mike B on D on Dec 19, 2010 10:43 AM EST reply actions

On which table?

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by George E. Ays on Dec 19, 2010 10:59 AM EST up reply actions

Sorry, I was looking at the Raw Data.

"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27

by Mike B on D on Dec 23, 2010 9:35 AM EST up reply actions

Great article.

I know there has been a lot of talk lately over what exactly a scoring chance is. I played the game for over a decade and even I never paid attention scoring chances so much as shots and goals. But this article did a great job of explaining what a scoring chance is and then breaking it down in a way that is easy for the non stat nerds to understand. Truly great stuff. Thank you.

BOILER UP!! 2010-2011

"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard

by EREX21 on Dec 19, 2010 12:53 PM EST reply actions