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Comparing Michael Leighton to Eastern Conference Goalies

With Ray Emery's status still unknown - he hasn't been skating - and Paul Holmgren publicly showing confidence in Michael Leighton and Brian Boucher, I thought it interesting to look at how these two stack up compared to the rest of the Eastern Conference's netminders.

As mentioned in the comments in a previous thread, there aren't too many advanced stats for goalies.  There's very little information out there on shot location and difficulty, but save percentage isn't a bad place to start.  The preferred method of comparison, however, is a goalie's even-strength save percentage. 

Using only even-strength save percentage eliminates each team's largely varied penalty killing abilities and discipline issues.  Further, it eliminates any breakdowns created while a team is on the man-advantage. 

It isn't perfect, but even-strength save percentage is a better indicator of a goalie's individual performance. 

With that, jump to see how Leighton stacks up.

Star-divide

Some may notice (and complain) that I only looked at half of the league, but this was mainly for playoff implications.  Because it appears that Leighton will carry the load for the Flyers the rest of the season - and possibly into the playoffs - the comparison should show whether goaltender is the weakest link of this team.

If you want to check league-wide comparisons, all these stats were acquired from NHL.com. 


Michael Leighton

#49 / Goalie / Philadelphia Flyers

6-3

186

May 19, 1981



GP MIN W L EGA GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
2009 - Michael Leighton 25 1365 13 7 62 2.73 655 593 .905 1


First, these stats include Leighton's games with Carolina and Philadelphia.  Below are just those with Philadelphia.


GP MIN W L EGA GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
2009 - Michael Leighton 18
1015 12 3
37
2.19 491
454
.925 1

Clearly, his stats with Philadelphia are much better.  But what are they in comparison with the rest of the East?

The minimum sample is 15 games started.  Yes it's small - very small - but it's the minimum required to fit Leighton in.  Maybe that means these numbers don't tell a whole lot - maybe that's true - but it's what we have.

Team Name GS GAA Sv% ESS%
FLA (12) Tomas Vokoun 50 2.36 0.931 0.943
BOS (7) Tuukka Rask 25 2.08 0.928 0.935
WAS (1) Semyon Varlamov 15 2.44 0.916 0.935
MTL (8) Jaroslav Halak 29 2.56 0.923 0.933
BUF (5) Ryan Miller 51 2.16 0.930 0.932
PHI (6) Ray Emery 29 2.64 0.905 0.930
NYR (10) Henrik Lundqvist 53 2.41 0.920 0.929
TBL (9) Antero Niittymaki 32 2.55 0.917 0.927
PHI (6) Michael Leighton 17 2.19 0.925 0.926
NJD (2) Martin Brodeur 57 2.32 0.915 0.925
WAS (1) Michal Neuvirth 16 2.75 0.914 0.922
NYI (13) Martin Biron 17 3.24 0.899 0.922
ATL (11) Johan Hedberg 27 2.56 0.916 0.921
WAS (1) Jose Theodore 31 2.94 0.906 0.921
CAR (14) Cam Ward 40 2.74 0.913 0.919
MTL (8) Carey Price 34 2.81 0.911 0.919
BOS (7) Tim Thomas 35 2.52 0.915 0.915
NYI (13) Dwayne Roloson 38 2.86 0.908 0.915
PIT (4) Marc-Andre Fleury 49 2.65 0.908 0.913
TBL (9) Mike Smith 29 2.97 0.903 0.911
OTT (3) Brian Elliott 35 2.59 0.910 0.910
TOR (15) Jonas Gustavsson 29 3.07 0.898 0.906
ATL (11) Ondrej Pavelec 33 3.45 0.902 0.905
OTT (3) Pascal Leclaire 25 3.07 0.890 0.892

In full disclosure, Leighton's combined even-strength save percentage is .906.  This is largely because he had a .848 number in Carolina.

There are a few surprising things in this chart. 

  • The Ottawa Senators are surviving with some pretty poor goaltending.  Currently leading the Northeast division, they have two of the four worst even-strength goalies.  
  • Marc-Andre Fleury is not having a good year.  At all.  Last year, he was at .922.  This year, he's sixth-worst in the East.
  • Tim Thomas is being severely out-played by Tuukka Rask and for those looking for a worse contract than Danny Briere, look at him.  Thomas is 35 years old and signed to a 4 year, $20 million contract.  Now Boston has a $5 million backup.
  • Despite outplaying Carey Price, Jaroslav Halak only recently began earning more playing time.  Entering the Olympic break, Halak has started 9 of the Canadiens' past 12 games.  With both becoming Restricted Free Agents this offseason, it will definitely be interesting what they command on the market.
  • A great example of why these numbers are better indicators of performance is the Islanders' crease.  Martin Biron ranks third in both save percentage and goals against average on the team, yet he leads in both even-strength save percentage and even-strength goals against per 60.
  • Everyone knows how good Ryan Miller and Henrik Lundqvist are (if you could have any goalie in the league, it would likely be Miller, Lundqvist, or Luongo) but Tomas Vokoun is vastly underrated.  He's currently leading the league in save percentage and 11th in goals against average, but if Florida never took a penalty, they would only need to score 2 goals a game to win.  That's ridiculous.

Conclusion

Looking at Michael Leighton's career numbers, or his combined Carolina and Philadelphia numbers, the Flyers would be in trouble.  But what he has done since coming over to Philadelphia is fantastic.  He is 9th in the Eastern conference with his even-strength save percentage, and 6th counting only playoff teams.  He's behind Ray Emery, but he's ahead of Martin Brodeur, Cam Ward, and Marc-Andre Fleury.  Two of those are on Team Canada.

If Leighton keeps playing like he has been, the Flyers don't need to worry about their goaltending this season.  The problem is, can Leighton keep this up?  Nothing has shown that he can, but the only two times he's played 10 games or more, he's put up even-strength save percentages of .909 (2003-04, Chicago) and .915 (2008-09, Carolina).  He plays better the more he plays, so maybe it isn't a surprise that he's having a career year.

As long as he continues this play, the Flyers are fine.  Hopefully he continues this play.

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Disclaimer: I’m taking this article from the Flyers’ site with a grain of salt (or several grains), but it’s worth bringing up for discussion the fact that our goalie coach has supposedly made adjustments to the way Leighton plays since arriving here. Here’s the quote from Bill Fleischman’s article on the Flyers’ website:

Leighton, 28, has been a revelation. Until he took over for the injured Emery in December, the 6-3, 186-pound Leighton has never established himself as an NHL goaltender. Since then, aided by tips from goaltender coach Jeff Reese, he has played like a poised veteran. Leighton is 12-3-1 with a 2.19 goals against average and .925 save percentage for Philadelphia since being claimed off of waivers by the club.

"Michael has played very well," Holmgren said. "Jeff made a couple changes in how Michael positions himself. He’s got him back in the net a little more because a bigger guy he doesn’t need to get out as much as a smaller goaltender."

Could this be part of the reason for better numbers? Maybe, maybe not. But it’s probably worth discussing, at least.

by DragonGirl0583 on Feb 26, 2010 8:26 PM EST reply actions  

He is 9th in the Eastern conference with his even-strength save percentage, and 6th counting only playoff teams.

I have no idea how you’re counting this. Rask, Varlamov, Miller, and Nitty are the only playoff goalies ahead of Leighton. Are you counting Emery?

If Leighton keeps playing like he has been, the Flyers don’t need to worry about their goaltending this season.

Regardless, I really don’t know how you go from “the flyers have the 6th best out of 8 goaltenders in the playoffs” to conclude “they don’t need to worry about goaltending.” You’re happy with being in the 37th percentile?

by MarioD on Feb 26, 2010 8:44 PM EST reply actions  

Yes I counted Emery, since he’s on a playoff team and he’s ahead of Leighton.

Regardless, I really don’t know how you go from "the flyers have the 6th best out of 8 goaltenders in the playoffs" to conclude "they don’t need to worry about goaltending." You’re happy with being in the 37th percentile?

Well, it’s not “6th best out of 8”, seeing as how Rask/Thomas, Varlamov/Theodore, and Halak/Price are straddling him. So, that’s not quite the 37th percentile. And we know how you feel about rookie goalies and how they can’t be trusted in the playoffs, so if those three teams go with Thomas, Theodore (since he’s their number 1), and Price, Leighton is suddenly in 2nd out of 8 (assuming Emery is hurt). That’s definitely not “37th percentile.” And what was Varlamov’s ESS% in last year’s playoffs – when he took over for Theodore – you ask? .926. And that of the Stanley Cup Champion Marc-Andre Fleury? .914.

Further, does New Jersey have to worry about goaltending? What about Pittsburgh? What about Washington, whose starter is 9th out of 14? Either way, I fail to see your point.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 26, 2010 10:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Boston is trying to trade Thomas. He’s not going to be their playoff goalie. Montreal isn’t even a playoff team so not sure why they’re in the discussion. It’s Rask, Varlamov, Miller, and Nitty who are playoff goalies with better numbers than the cherry-picked Leighton numbers.

If you’re New Jersey or Pittsburgh, you aren’t as worried because your goalies have proven track records. If you’re Boston or Washington, you’re also going in with an unproven goaltender, but at least that guy has better numbers than Leighton.

If you’re the Flyers, you have a mediocre goalie who has no playoff experience. The point is, any way you examine Leighton, you have to be, to put it very very mildly, “worried”. And that includes the need for Paul Holmgren to undergo a psychological competency evaluation if he truly feels “comfortable” with his scrap heap goaltender for the stretch run, let alone the playoffs.

by MarioD on Feb 26, 2010 11:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Tampa Bay is not in the playoffs. They have games in hand, but that’s it. Boston is “trying” to trade Thomas, but he’s the reigning Vezina Trophy winner and an Olympian. Rask has started the last 6 games, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to be their playoff goalie.

Either way, putting Leighton 5th out of 8 (Rask, Varlamov, Miller, Nitty/Halak), you only have one guy with a “proven track record” better than Leighton. Only two of them have a lower gaa, and only two of them have a higher save percentage. Any way you examine Leighton, you have to at least admit that he’s not this team’s problem. Not the way he has been playing anyway.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 26, 2010 11:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Tampa Bay is not in the playoffs.

You can live in the stone age all you want, but don’t try to make statistical evaluations and then use stone age numbers. Tampa and Atlantaa dead tie for 8th place are in .


Boston is "trying" to trade Thomas, but he’s the reigning Vezina Trophy winner and an Olympian. Rask has started the last 6 games, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to be their playoff goalie.

That’s great for last season and all, but when you try to jettison a player, its not because you plan to rely on him in the playoffs.


Any way you examine Leighton, you have to at least admit that he’s not this team’s problem.

Number 1 problem? No. A problem that will keep them from being successful in the playoffs and should be addressed if they actually plan to try to win this year? Absolutely.

by MarioD on Feb 27, 2010 9:43 AM EST up reply actions  

How are you so sure he is going to be a problem. Do you have a crystal ball? If I could see the future like that I would be rich from betting on winners. It just sounds like you don’t like Leighton and a lot of other personal. I a mad too because I have never see the win the cup, but that doesn’t make me a doomsayer.

I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.

by Christopher A on Feb 27, 2010 11:02 AM EST up reply actions  

For the same reasons three NHL teams already gave up on him. He’s not that good.

by MarioD on Feb 27, 2010 2:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Teams that gave up on him did not have good players to support him. We’ve seen year after year that good D and good goaltending go hand in hand. You can’t have a great team with one of those factors missing. Right now we have both and our biggest problem is our forwards who sometimes fail to show up for long stretches at a time. THAT needs to be addressed before any goaltending issues if there’s any chance of going deep in the playoffs.

by Kanayd on Feb 27, 2010 9:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Chicago saw him play in 42 games, then the lockout happened. They signed the reigning Stanley Cup winner, Nikolai Khabibulin.

The second team to “give up on him”: is that the 20 minutes he played for Nashville or the 195 (just over 3 games worth) with the Flyers?

The third team – Carolina – gave him 158 minutes one year (.922 ESS%), then started him in 14 games the next (with respectable numbers for a backup – .915ESS%, only 0.003 worse than Marty Biron in the same season), and 5 starts this year.

But of course, everything is as simple as “three teams gave up on him.” Except that’s not what happened.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 27, 2010 9:47 PM EST up reply actions  

He didn’t get to the NHL with those teams because he sucks.

They saw him in the AHL play plenty of games and gave up on him.

by MarioD on Feb 27, 2010 10:38 PM EST up reply actions  

To make explicitly clear, since you’ve decided to play dumb (which, of course, is the only one your “Leighton is a reliable goaltender” argument could ever be persuasive):

Team 1: Chicago
Drafted in 1999 in the 6th round.
In first two seasons, played 88 AHL games.
In 2nd and 3rd season, played 43 NHL games.
Lockout year in the AHL

AFTER CAMP in 2005, Chicago had no use for him and sent him to Buffalo for whoever the hell Milan Bartovic is.

Team 2: Buffalo
He played 40 AHL games and Buffalo let him walk as a UFA after the season.

Team 3: Anaheim
Signed him in the summer of 2006, watched him play 16 AHL games and waived him in November of that season.

Team 4: Nashville
Nashville claimed him from waivers on November 27, and put him back on waivers on January 11, 45 days later, after he played a single NHL game.

Team 5: Philadelphia
The Flyers held on to him for longer, waiving him again on February 27, a whopping 47 days later after determining in 4 NHL and 5 AHL games that they didn’t have room for him in the worst franchise in the NHL.

Team 6: Montreal
Montreal kept him all the way until June, though he didn’t play a hockey game all that time. Carolina gave up the overwhelming package of a single 7th round draft pick. (Leighton having, in June of 2006, declined in value since being a sixth round selection on draft day in 1999.)

Team 7: Carolina
Leighton played 58 AHL games and 3 NHL games that first season, just 19 NHL games last season, and all of 3 NHL games this season for Carolina before they jettisoned his $600k salary to the Flyers via, yet again, waivers.

Team 8: Philadelphia (again)

Having been through a full 1/4 of the franchises in the NHL, he’s suddenly become an elite NHL player.

by MarioD on Feb 27, 2010 11:01 PM EST up reply actions  

When did I ever say “Leighton is a reliable goaltender”?

Career AHL numbers: 2.30 GAA, .917 SvP. Yeah, he definitely sucks.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 27, 2010 11:34 PM EST up reply actions  

When did I ever say "Leighton is a reliable goaltender"?
Conclusion

…what he has done since coming over to Philadelphia is fantastic. He is 9th in the Eastern conference with his even-strength save percentage, and 6th counting only playoff teams. He’s behind Ray Emery, but he’s ahead of Martin Brodeur, Cam Ward, and Marc-Andre Fleury. Two of those are on Team Canada.

If Leighton keeps playing like he has been, the Flyers don’t need to worry about their goaltending this season. The problem is, can Leighton keep this up? Nothing has shown that he can, but the only two times he’s played 10 games or more, he’s put up even-strength save percentages of .909 (2003-04, Chicago) and .915 (2008-09, Carolina). He plays better the more he plays, so maybe it isn’t a surprise that he’s having a career year.

As long as he continues this play, the Flyers are fine. Hopefully he continues this play.

First off, having the 9th best goaltender of 16 teams is something to worry about itself.

Let’s go back to the penultimate sentence:


As long as he continues this play, the Flyers are fine.

He’s not going to continue playing like this. And if he does, the Flyers are not fine. They still have a goaltender who’s ceiling is mediocrity in a bad conference. That is not a good position to be in. He is not a player you can sit back and rely upon. They MUST get a goaltender before Thursday.

by MarioD on Feb 27, 2010 11:42 PM EST up reply actions  

So I never did say that? Cool. Stop making shit up.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 28, 2010 12:32 AM EST up reply actions  

You need it written at a 1st grade level?

Geoff said:

As long as he continues this play, the Flyers are fine.

When Geoff said “he”, Geoff meant Michael Leighton.

When Geoff said “this play”, Geoff meant being the 9th best goaltender in a crappy conference.

When Geoff said “the Flyers are fine”, it means they could rely on the 9th best goaltender in the conference.

by MarioD on Feb 28, 2010 12:42 AM EST up reply actions  

haha, you’re so funny. You know that? Seriously.

“As long as Michael Leighton continues his current play, the Flyers are fine.” = “Michael Leighton is a reliable goaltender”

And “this play”, meaning Michael Leighton out-playing Martin Brodeur, Cam Ward, Marc-Andre Fleury, the guy you’re own record saying the Flyers should have signed – Martin Biron – and the guy you’re on record saying the Flyers should sign – Johan Hedberg (who ALSO has a long track record of being a crappy goaltender. How many teams “gave up on him”? – and Tim Thomas.

Arguing that Leighton is playing above his head is one thing. But your hypocrisy and blind desire to argue with me is really wearing thin.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 28, 2010 1:43 AM EST up reply actions  

Your playing dumb is wearing even thinner.

If you think the Flyers can rely on him down the stretch, which is exactly what you’ve said, then you think he is reliable.

It’s pretty simple English. All the other players you mentioned have had better career performances than they have this season. You can rely on them because they have been there before.

Stop trying to have it both ways. You either look at things intelligently (statistical analysis like ESSP) or you look at things like a caveman (he’s “hot” just ride him to the Cup!) but when you use stats and caveman logic it just undermines the stats.

by MarioD on Feb 28, 2010 10:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Wow, you are such an incredible jackass. Never did I say the Flyers can “rely on him down the stretch”. Never did I say “he’s ‘hot’ just ride him to the Cup!”.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 28, 2010 1:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, you did:

As long as he continues this play, the Flyers are fine.

by MarioD on Feb 28, 2010 9:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Clearly much better than you understand it. Which is incredible, since they’re your own words you don’t understand the meaning of.

by MarioD on Feb 28, 2010 10:40 PM EST up reply actions  

They MUST get a goaltender before Thursday.

They probably won’t. I’d be very surprised if they do.

I understand your concerns about Leighton, but I don’t share them. If this is his career year, let’s let him ride it out. And if we don’t make the playoffs or if we fizzle out in the first round with him in the net, then let him walk.

I say this: They MUST get a scoring winger before Thursday.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Feb 28, 2010 12:43 AM EST up reply actions  

Read below for why its just dumb to try to ride out Michael Leighton’s “hot streak”.

In a sentence, even his “hot streak” isn’t all that good, and there’s no guarantee or logical basis to think he wouldn’t regress to the mean long before the season ends.

The Flyers don’t have an playoff caliber goaltender in the entire organization. They have to either get a goaltender, or start selling pieces to get back the future. Standing pat is the only thing they CAN’T rationally do.

by MarioD on Feb 28, 2010 12:46 AM EST up reply actions  

ou can live in the stone age all you want, but don’t try to make statistical evaluations and then use stone age numbers. Tampa and Atlantaa dead tie for 8th place are in .

They are dead tie for 8th place are in? You certainly have an interesting conversational style. And I can get behind referring to the NHL as “the stone age”, but that’s where we are, not some fantasy mystical land. Games in hand are important, yes. But points are still points.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 27, 2010 12:51 PM EST up reply actions  

And winning percentage, in every sport in the world where teams haven’t played the same number of games, is always the best way to look at the standings.

by MarioD on Feb 27, 2010 2:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Not true. The Eagles have one of the top winning percentage as the Pats and the Colts but we have no Super Bowl. Look at a lot of flukes out there The 2000 Ravens who really remembers trent dilfer or the Bucs who remembers Johnson. I don’t remeber his first name. I thinking you never know maybe he does all out this year and is shit form than on out. That would be alright. Besides goalies are streaky.

I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.

by Christopher A on Feb 27, 2010 3:37 PM EST up reply actions  

What are you talking about?

by MarioD on Feb 27, 2010 4:24 PM EST up reply actions  

what you're saying is

that maybe this is the one year he’s not crap out of all the years he’ll be in the NHL? you can see why this doesn’t seem likely, right? All we’re talking about is probabilities. He’s played great so far for the Flyers, but probability says he’s been playing way over his “real” capabilities. Most likely, he will revert to his mean at some point, and it will be ugly — just like Thomas played awesome last year, he reverted to his mean this year…

Probability is a powerful, powerful thing.

by Alon on Feb 27, 2010 6:25 PM EST up reply actions  

This doesn’t seem unlikely at all. Crap like this happens all the time in hockey. Goalies get hot and look great for a year all the freaking time. Tim Thomas and Steve Mason are 2 blatant examples just from last year. The thing with probability is not an issue of one year, it is an issue of career. We should all agree that it is a 95% chance that after this year Leighton will suck horribly, but in the NHL Goalies do have bizarre career years. Bouch did it, Checkmaster did it, Esche did it, a ton of people have done it in this very town. This is an outlier year for Leighton, but why not just ride it out. As long sa we don’t go all, he is our starter going forward kinds of stupid this is a good move.

by You don't have to be sweet, to be good on Feb 27, 2010 7:01 PM EST up reply actions  

That is true. But the playoffs are determined by points.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 27, 2010 4:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Which is relevant to… nothing at all.

If you want to see who is most likely to be in the playoffs in the middle of a season when the teams have played an unequal number of games (like any time during the NHL season) the only statistically reliable indicator is winning percentage.

by MarioD on Feb 27, 2010 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, because when I want to look at NHL playoff teams, using the official NHL standings is not relevant. At all.

My sincerest apologies.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 27, 2010 6:18 PM EST up reply actions  

As a matter of fact, and as a testament to the retardetry of the NHL, that is absolutely true. It’s one of the dumbest things they have ever done. A dude in Atlanta or Tampa looks at the morning paper and is misled to believe his team is not in playoff position when in fact Montreal is actually in 10th place in the conference.

by MarioD on Feb 27, 2010 6:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Can we please have a Michael Leighton Poll of Confidence?

I get the feeling the issue of riding him to (and through) the playoffs is a bit of a contentious one. Some people are obviously hugely in favour of letting him be the King of the Flyers net (I’m looking at you, Mr Rothenberg), whereas others such as myself don’t feel he has all of what it takes. To be honest, the best thing I think he’s got going for him is his awesome pads.

I propose a poll! The best and fairest way of determining Leighton’s future. But I don’t have enough time to put it together right now, so if anyone got a spare moment I say go for it.

"NZFlyerfan"

by ToddtheFox on Feb 27, 2010 12:27 AM EST reply actions  

Come on.

Why is no one discussing what DragonGirl wrote?

In other threads we’ve talked about things like this: “Crosby initially sucked at faceoffs, but he worked on them and is now good at them.”

Why can’t we say the same for Leighton? His biggest problem in the past was positioning because he used to come too far out of his net. He has now learned to stay back in the net and it has made a big difference.

Part of the issue is that we give players like Crosby a pass because of their talent. Since Crosby is so good at passing, it’s no wonder he’s become good at scoring. His talent level is so high that it’s no wonder that he became good at faceoffs, too. We accept things like this and move on.

Leighton is a different story because his NHL career is less than distinguished until now. But it’s not like he’s a complete hack who drank a magic elixir. He has solid AHL numbers; he just has not been able to translate that success to the NHL level. It could well be that a simple change of approach to his positioning has made all of the difference in the world.

Disclaimer: I am not about to compare Leighton to Bernie Parent. But let’s look at Bernie Parent now. Why Parent?

  • His GAA from his first seven NHL seasons (excluding his year in the WHA with the Blazers) averages out to 2.94.
  • Before he was traded to Toronto, his career GAA was 3.01.
  • His career GAA with the Flyers (pre-1973) was 2.68.
  • He went to Toronto and learned from his hero/mentor, Jacques Plante. His GAA in Toronto was a 2.60 over two seasons, but it’s worth mentioning that he left Philadelphia in 1971 with a 2.76 GAA and left Toronto in 1972 with a 2.56 GAA. His numbers improved because he learned how to be better (even though the Leafs were only marginally better than the Flyers were in the early 1970s).
  • After a lost year in the startup WHA, Parent came back to Philadelphia with his new-found knowledge. He learned how to be a better goalie; when he got to play for a good team (the 1973-74 Cup Champion Flyers), he posted a 1.89 GAA. The rest, as they say, is history.

Parent is proof that talent does not always reveal itself instantly, especially in the case of goaltenders.

Am I saying that Leighton is going to be the next Bernie Parent? Absolutely not. But learning about something as simple as positioning could make all of the difference for the rest of his NHL career. Is he going to post a .925 SV% every year from here on out? Not bloody likely. But who’s to say that – given the opportunity – his NHL numbers won’t finish closer to where his AHL numbers are?

I know that a lot of us are married to stats, so to speak. As I’ve said time and again, they are very valuable and there is a lot to learn from them. But to me, what’s missing from a statistical argument is the “Why?” of it all.

Back to Bernie Parent. We can see that he was an average goalie before the Cup years. But WHY was he?

  • He played on bad teams.
  • He needed to work on things he didn’t know he needed to work on.

Now, Mr. Leighton. We can see that he was a mediocre goalie AT BEST before this season. But WHY was he?

  • He played on bad teams (for the most part).
  • He needed to work on things he didn’t know he needed to work on.

As DragonGirl said, this is worthy of discussion. The numbers are valuable and really allow us to see where Leighton has been and where he is now. But the numbers do not – and CAN NOT – exist in a vacuum. We need to understand WHY they are the way they are. Only time will tell IF Leighton has truly improved.

But my short comment is this: Dude has the hot hand. Go with him. He’s been playing well. It will take a bloody miracle for this year’s edition to win the Cup anyway. Should we somehow get to the promised land, it may as well be him leading the way.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Feb 27, 2010 1:46 AM EST reply actions   2 recs

In other threads we’ve talked about things like this: "Crosby initially sucked at faceoffs, but he worked on them and is now good at them."

Why can’t we say the same for Leighton? His biggest problem in the past was positioning because he used to come too far out of his net. He has now learned to stay back in the net and it has made a big difference.

Crosby worked at faceoffs, a very specific small part of his game. If Leighton has had trouble with his blocker and worked really hard at it, that’s a fair comparison.

To say he made a small technical adjustment (staying deeper in the net) and went from an AHL goalie to a guy who could lead his team to the Stanley Cup is quite a stretch.

by MarioD on Feb 27, 2010 9:46 AM EST up reply actions  

I didn't say that.

I’d say that how far a goalie comes out of his net is a specific part of his game that can be worked on, thus making him a better goalie.

Does that mean he’ll win the Cup? No. But as Alon said below, he might become more of an adequate goaltender over the rest of his career now that he’s made this adjustment. That’s what I am thinking will happen.

I picked Parent as a case study in how someone can almost come out of nowhere and improve because he’s a goalie and we’re talking about Leighton. But let’s not forget John LeClair either. His career high in goals before coming to the Flyers was 19. Look what happened after that. He got teamed up with a high scorer in Lindros and became a scoring threat himself – even when Lindros was not in the lineup.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Feb 27, 2010 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d say that how far a goalie comes out of his net is a specific part of his game that can be worked on, thus making him a better goalie.

You said:


Why is no one discussing what DragonGirl wrote?
In other threads we’ve talked about things like this: "Crosby initially sucked at faceoffs, but he worked on them and is now good at them."
Why can’t we say the same for Leighton?

I’m telling you, you can’t say the same for Leighton because it’s comparing apples and oranges.

by MarioD on Feb 27, 2010 11:04 PM EST up reply actions  

We don’t know how many adjustments were made when Homer refers to “a couple of changes”. Being back in the net more is one example, but he’s also shown improvement in orienting himself toward the play, and we don’t know specifically what else has been worked on.

Sorry if I misunderstood you mike, but I think he was trying to use the Crosby thing as a generic example in the sense of “Why can we accept that forwards work on aspects of their game and improve, but we treat goalies as if they can’t learn to be better?”. I’m not saying Leighton is the next Bernie Parent, but I don’t think mikefive was saying that either; I think it was just about a parallel path that Leighton has taken toward improvement. In both cases, a fresh set of eyes was able to point out things to work on that weren’t seen before.

I’m not trying to say that Leighton is perfect because he’s not, but being a goalie requires learned skills just like any other position on the team. For example, kids don’t just start playing goal at 8 years old and instinctively know all the secrets to being a butterfly goaltender without learning the technique. Instinct plays a factor, but there are aspects of a player’s game that can be worked on just like any other position on the ice. Is there still a possibility that it’s a fluke season? Yes, there’s always that chance. But we can’t automatically assume that there’s nothing a goalie coach can do to help someone become better.

by DragonGirl0583 on Feb 28, 2010 12:48 AM EST up reply actions  

But we can’t automatically assume that there’s nothing a goalie coach can do to help someone become better.

We CAN, in fact, automatically assume, that a goaltending coach did not turn an AHL goaltender into a starting goalie in the NHL.

by MarioD on Feb 28, 2010 12:50 AM EST up reply actions  

If you look back at my first post, I never said it would be the only factor in the improvement over past performance, only that it could be part of the reason.

If someone has a flaw in their game that they don’t realize is causing them problems, then learning how to overcome that flaw can cause significant improvement. That’s fairly universal to all sports and all positions, and sometimes it takes a change of scenery or a new coach to spot those things. Reese may not be a perfect goalie coach, but he wasn’t here the last time Leighton was and hadn’t worked with Leighton previously, so we can’t rule out the possibility that he has helped somewhat. Like I said above, I’m not trying to say he’s suddenly perfect, only that the skills he’s working on are worth discussing as a possible factor in the improvement in his play. It’s not the only possibility, but we shouldn’t dismiss the notion entirely.

by DragonGirl0583 on Feb 28, 2010 1:02 AM EST up reply actions  

He’s had like 11 different goalie coaches in six years. We can automatically assume he didn’t have some gaping flaw that turned him from an AHL goalie no one wanted into a starting NHL goalie and all of those people missed it.

He’s having a short spell of overperformance. It happens all the time in all sports. It happens even more often to goaltenders in hockey. Everytime it happens, people stupidly argue that the player “has put it all together” and is suddenly a dramatically improved player. Then after a little while the player regresses right back to their career average.

  Stop trying to find reasons to delude yourself into thinking its anything other than it is.

by MarioD on Feb 28, 2010 10:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh but to the contrary it also happens alot where a player does pull it together and is a steady proformer. Its not always doom and gloom.

by darkside3744 on Feb 28, 2010 10:51 PM EST up reply actions  

We can automatically assume nothing.

It is not the coach’s job to “turn an AHL goaltender into a starting goalie in the NHL.” The coach needs to do his job to the best of his ability, but at the end of the day it is the goalie’s job to take what he is taught and apply it to himself. If he can do that successfully, he makes himself a better goalie.

I am not a coach, but I am a teacher. Currently I teach adults who never completed high school. Most of them tell me that they dropped out in part because their teachers told them they were dumb and they were never going to “get it.” Now they are passing the GED exam and getting employed. Whenever they thank me, I always remind them: I didn’t pass the test. You did. I can teach until I’m blue in the face but you’re the one who applied it and got the job done.

In my experience, students learn most when they are motivated and when their teachers have effective ways of getting their messages across. Leighton has certainly worked hard this year; perhaps Jeff Reese had the right way of reaching him.

You can talk about career numbers all you want; you’ve made your points, and they are valid. Like I said, I understand your concerns. But there is always more to any given scenario than meets the eye.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Feb 28, 2010 1:04 AM EST up reply actions  

That comparison just doesn’t apply.

Leighton didn’t even actually work hard this year. He was on the team for barely two months before the Olympic break.

Jeff Reese would’ve had to see some easily correctable gaping flaw in Leighton’s game that he fixed overnight to perform the way he has.

You can quote the Transformers theme song. I’ll quote Occam’s Razor: The simplest explanation is usually the best.

by MarioD on Feb 28, 2010 10:22 AM EST up reply actions  

How do you know how hard he worked? Were you training him.

by darkside3744 on Feb 28, 2010 10:52 PM EST up reply actions  

ironically

there’s no such thing as a hot hand

at some point Leighton is going to revert to the mean. Whether his mean has increased because of his adjustment is what remains to be seen… The question is interesting, because he could revert to that fugly ~.850 , or maybe his new real mean is a .915. That’d be fine. Stanley cup? Probably not, but good considering his salary etc.

The point is, we just cannot expect him to continue as he has indefinitely.

by Alon on Feb 27, 2010 6:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Nah, you’re wrong. This is a hot hand, it is a pretty significant sample that is well above his career average. Everyone agrees that eventually he will go back to mediocrity, but right now he is playing every well. Which is the definition of a hot hand, and we should ride it out until he reverts back to being Michael Leighton the guy waived by the worst team in hockey.

by You don't have to be sweet, to be good on Feb 27, 2010 7:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Michael Leighton the guy waived by the worst team in hockey

At least twice in his career (Carolina this year, Flyers in 2006-07).


Everyone agrees that eventually he will go back to mediocrity

The problem with your theory is that he’s just as likely to return to mediocrity next week as he is next year. The idea that he’ll sustain his level of overperformance until May, somehow, is a total crapshoot.

AND, that’s before getting into the fact that, even at his current level of overperformance, he’s still only a middle of the pack goaltender in the East. (9th overall).

At least with Tim Thomas, he was a flukey Vezina Trophy winning goalie and it was worth the risk to ride the streak because he was playing like the best goalie in the league.

The reward for gambling that Leighton stays “hot” is that you get a middle of the pack goaltender the rest of the year? There’s no way thats worth the gamble.

by MarioD on Feb 27, 2010 11:09 PM EST up reply actions  

And you want to give up the few assets we have for a goalie who probably won’t be a franchise guy either? At this point in my opinion we shouldn’t crap on our future any more.

by You don't have to be sweet, to be good on Feb 28, 2010 12:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I want to blow the team up and start over.

If you’re not going to blow it up, then, yes, you have to try to win this year since the future is already fucked.

The only thing you can’t do is stand pat with a team that isn’t very good now and won’t be very good in the future. That’s just idiocy.

by MarioD on Feb 28, 2010 9:51 PM EST up reply actions  

My turn to channel David Foster Wallace

Sometimes your posts give me the howling fantods.

I want to blow up the team and start over.

1. Good luck doing that, what with the NTCs and big contracts we have.
2. No GM in his right mind would take a team in the thick of the playoff race and blow them up. This is not 2006-07.

If you’re not going to blow it up, then, yes, you have to try to win this year since the future is already fucked.

I’m not even going to start an argument about this. The future is not “fucked” just because we won’t draft anyone of any significance this year. In fact, to say the future is “fucked” is an insult to Giroux, JVR, Marshall, Bourdon, Maroon, Ericsson, etc., etc., etc…. AS WELL AS the players on this team who will still be here a few years from now.

The only thing you can’t do is stand pat with a team that isn’t very good now and won’t be very good in the future. That’s just idiocy.

Say what you will about the team now, but unless you are certifiably clairvoyant, YOU CANNOT PREDICT THE FUTURE.

1. The Flyers always make their biggest moves in the offseason. You know this.
2. The Flyers have some money coming off the books after this season. You know this.
3. It is entirely possible that the Flyers will trade talent-for-talent this summer, or that they will trade for draft picks so they can free up some money to pursue free agents.
4. If Leighton disappoints, he won’t be back next year and you don’t have to worry about him any more.

Even if the Flyers do nothing of any significance before the deadline, they will retool in the offseason like they always do. In other words, they won’t “stand pat” at all.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Feb 28, 2010 11:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the most important thing you’re forgetting is the playoffs. Can Leighton be a good playoff goalie? Emery has experience in the playoffs which is why I would rather have him in the net for the postseason instead of Leighton.

by Parduno on Feb 27, 2010 3:29 AM EST reply actions  

That’s completely fair. I just don’t have much hope that Emery plays again this season. Anthony SanFilippo has a great article on that today.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 27, 2010 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Remember that 2 seasons ago, everyone was worried because Martin Biron had never started in the playoffs. All he did was take us to the Conference Finals that year.

Stranger things have happened.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Feb 27, 2010 8:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Would feel better about Leighton IF ...

Leighton is the hot hand, and experience has shown that as long as the hot hand produces, you go with him. But what concerns me most is that, despite the public comments to the contrary, no one in the organization has confidence in Boucher starting a game. If they did, they would start him occasionally. While everyone is concerned with finding a starter, I believe a critical need is to find a reliable backup for Leighton. I’m not thinking about Vokun, Thomas or Turco as much as Biron, Harding or even Auld. The lack of confidence in Boucher makes me feel like the Flyers are only left with one NHL quality goalie. To me, that is a critical problem that must be fixed by the trade deadline.

by memphisbrando on Feb 27, 2010 8:27 AM EST reply actions  

I love how fans act like credit card companies toward goalies. Oh you were never in the playoffs before so you cant be in them now. Oh you have’nnt played enough games so you can’t stay on our team. All I know is consistantly this season Leighton has looked good so I’d ride and die with him at this point. Besides the price is right and if he does blow up in our faces there will be a couple of goalies avaible this summer.

by darkside3744 on Feb 28, 2010 2:22 PM EST reply actions  

consistantly this season Leighton has looked good

Really? In his 8 games for Carolina this year and sub .900 save percentage, he “looked good” ?

by MarioD on Feb 28, 2010 9:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Excuse me, I forgot the actual number. It was a sub .850 save percentage he posted with Carolina.

by MarioD on Feb 28, 2010 9:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Talking about with the Flyers but you knew that and besides its not what he’s done but what he’s doing and right now thats playing pretty good for the Flyers.

by darkside3744 on Feb 28, 2010 10:49 PM EST reply actions  


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