Flyers Acquire Ville Leino for Ole-Kristian Tollefsen
The Flyers traded defenseman Ole-Kristian Tollefsen and a fifth round pick to Detroit for left wing Ville Leino today.
Leino is a 26-year old winger who made his North American debut last year after being signed from Finland. He had 46 points in 57 games in the AHL before being called up to Detroit where he added 9 points in 13 games.
This year, Leino was expected to play a bigger role for the Red Wings. We asked Casey Richey over at SBN's Winging It In Motown what we should expect from Leino:
The Good: Leino has a hell of a shot when he gets the space and time to fire. He was an elite scorer in Finland for a reason but it's needless to say he gets lost in the depth of the Wingss (even with the injuries the Wings have suffered through this season).The Bad: He's probably the easiest person to knock off the puck in the entire league. He's not very strong at all and easily gets out worked in the corners and along the boards.He has potential, but just not in Detroit. He might actually work better in a fast-paced game. The Wings have played a very methodic and trudging pace this year, and he seems like a guy that will benefit from high pace because he needs to be involved to do well.I think, plain and simple, the fact that the Wings weren't scoring at all hurt his confidence. If he gets good linemates he'll be solid, he's a pretty good passer but just not strong skater at all.
Here's another excellent read over at WIM on Leino, written a few weeks ago. It breaks down what they called the "Leino dilemma" and the heightened expectations he set for himself when he first joined the Wings last season. I highly recommend you head over there and read the whole thing to give yourself a perfect picture of Leino's Red Wings career.
Tollefsen has been a spare part almost the entire season for the Flyers, and his injury history has been well-documented. He entered the year as the team's 7th defenseman, but quickly got bypassed by Oskars Bartulis. With the addition of Lukas Krajicek, Tollefsen quickly became expendable.
Detroit also had an impetus towards making this trade. Johan Franzen is due back from injury and they had to clear room, but they felt that if they waived Leino to make the space, he would've been claimed. In picking up Tollefsen and getting a pick along with him, they can waive a guy who likely won't be claimed and they have something else to show for it.
Jump for more stats and analysis.
Those numbers are rather depressing. GVT sees him as a -2.5 contributor, which makes it look even worse. Want more bad news? He achieved these numbers against below average competition: -0.080 qualcomp; -0.248 Corsi QoC. His goals for per 60 is only 1.43 while his goals against per 60 is 2.86. When he's off the ice, Detroit scores one goal more per 60 and gives up half a goal less.
But the good news is that Leino had a 9.8 GVT in the AHL last year, good for 0.172 per game. That obviously doesn't translate exactly, but it shows potential. His last year in Finland saw him earn an All-Star selection and win Best Player of the Regular Season. Maybe he just needed a change of scenery.
Paul Holmgren has said he hopes Leino will join the team today. He likely won't play tonight, regardles of if he makes it to Minnesota on time. He's excited to be a member of the team, though.
"Sometimes things don't go as you plan it with your team," said Leino. "The trade happened, and I am happy to be going to a good team like Philadelphia. I have heard a lot of good things about Philly and I am looking forward to playing and proving myself to Philadelphia. I am pretty happy about this trade.
"I consider myself a skilled player. My talent is more on the offensive side of the rink, but I would like to consider myself as a contributor in the defensive zone, too. I am hoping to produce some offense and help the team get some points and win games."
Leino is signed through next season at a cap hit of $800,000. He will be a UFA. Tollefsen is signed at $600,000 through this season where he will be an RFA.
This is a low-risk, high-reward type of deal. Tollefsen was expendable and Leino is underperforming. But that's the important thing to remember: Leino is underperforming. Maybe he isn't going to turn it around, but this gives the Flyers depth while not giving up much.
What do you think?
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Comments
I actually like Leino, a lot, and I am fine with getting rid of OKT but could Homer stop trading draft picks? By the time the draft rolls around we won’t even have to send anyone there, we wont have any picks left.
by EREX21 on Feb 6, 2010 12:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Maybe thats the point. Holmgren thinks the travel expenses they save can be put towards cap space in the 2010-11 season.
by MarioD on Feb 6, 2010 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why do we need another left winger? Four goals and three assists over 42 games and we lose another draft pick? I don’t follow Detroit too much, so maybe I’m missing something here (I understand he was the Finnish league MVP and put up good numbers in the AHL), but is it just that he hasn’t been given the right opportunity, or what?
by Ben Feldman on Feb 6, 2010 12:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree. I don’t care if Homer gets God on the team, just stop giving away draft picks like they’re Snickers bars!
by Kanayd on Feb 6, 2010 8:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I actually think this is a great trade
Here’s Leino’s scouting report:
An unselfish and gifted playmaker, he’s a strong puckhandler with good vision and quality shot to score goals. He’s also a versatile forward.
Sure, he’s been disappointing this season, but think about the price: a 5th and OKT. Who knew we could get a living, breathing NHL player for a 5th and OKT! Even if Leino never turns out to be a regular, a 5th and OKT is really cheap for a chance at a solid player.
by memphisbrando on Feb 6, 2010 12:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
this is def a good buy low trade
by asmallvictory31 on Feb 6, 2010 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's a good trade
however i thought we were in the market for a defenseman not a winger. I’m kinda hoping we will use this guy to make another move.
by Nolbs13 on Feb 6, 2010 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Now that we're down to 6 healthy defensemen ...
I wonder what the Flyers might do to reinforce their blueline? What veteran might be available at a cheap price right now? Hmm …
by memphisbrando on Feb 6, 2010 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s past noon though…
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 6, 2010 12:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would have been happy with a bag of pucks for OKT, but now we got an actual player for him! I guess Holmgren needed to give up a 2011 draft pick for it was the only way Detroit would ever accept such a horrible player.
My only thing is what are we going to do with Leino? Send him down to the Phantoms for the rest of the year? We don’t really need a left winger right now….
Proudly supporting a Flyers team with "no honor".
by JFein on Feb 6, 2010 12:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Leino’s got a one-way contract. Either Leino’s played on the right before and we just don’t know, or he or one of the other left-wingers is outta here soon because there were already five left wingers on the roster to begin with (including Cote).
by Ben Feldman on Feb 6, 2010 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn’t surprise me if Hartnell was traded.
by EREX21 on Feb 6, 2010 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That would not surprise me either.
As with OKT, I would be satisfied with trading Hartnell for a bag of pucks and a batch of sticks.
Proudly supporting a Flyers team with "no honor".
by JFein on Feb 6, 2010 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hartnell is at least worth a pair of new Nike skates. Please, show respect
"NO HONOR"
by JpH89 on Feb 6, 2010 12:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I prefer Missions myself but I guess I could be made amendable to such a trade.
by EREX21 on Feb 6, 2010 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He had the worst GVT amongst skaters on the Red Wings roster at (-2.5). Brad May is (-2.0) and Abelkader is (-1.9) and basically everyone else is even or positive.
So the Flyers traded basically the hands-down worst player on their roster for basically the hands-down worst player on Detroit’s roster.
He’s .1 DGVT and (-1.9) OGVT. His shootout gvt drags him down the rest of the way, but who cares…. He was expected to be better, though not great by any means. His Vukota projection (based on several years of performance in Europe which the boys at Prospectus have done a pretty good job of translating into north american performance) was for 1.5 OGVT and 1.3 DGVT.
Geoff, what was the website you linked to earlier this week to show who Briere had taken most of his shifts with? Was it timeonice.com because they apparently stopped tracking this season. I’d like to take a look at who Leino’s linemates were this year, since Detroit suffered quite a few injuries at forward he may have been playing with really inferior linemates which would be promising.
Either way, this guy is a third line winger. Hopefully, the idea here is put him on the third line, send JVR down, and use the saved $1.5m to get a top six winger.
It will be very very interesting to see who gets scratched (tonight?). I have no idea who it will be.
by MarioD on Feb 6, 2010 12:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think that Leino is just a replacement for Pyro, the guy that can ome in so Cote doesn’t have to play.
"NO HONOR"
by JpH89 on Feb 6, 2010 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he is better than Pyro personally. When I heard about the trade I called a buddy of mine who lives in Detroit and is obviously a Wings fan. He said that Leino is good, young, good team guy. He has a high ceiling but has been a disappointment this year. Leino has played with pretty much everyone this year, moved up and down the lines a lot due to massive injuries. Leino was basically moved to free up room on the Wings roster for guys getting healthy. Namely Franzen. Leino seems to be a versatile guy and can play with just about anyone and be decent. He will never be a 30 goal scorer but I think he can get you 15-20.
by EREX21 on Feb 6, 2010 12:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that too, but barring another trade, i can’t see us sitting anybody for him. If we trade Hartnell or Gagne or Danny, then he will get his chance.
"NO HONOR"
by JpH89 on Feb 6, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Using Geoff and my (mine?) favorite new way of examining players:
Goals
GFOn/60: 1.43
GAOn/60: 2.86
GFOff/60: 2.41
GAOff/60: 2.29
Shots
SFOn/60: 28.7
SAOn/60: 26.2
SFOff/60: 29
SAOff/60: 26.3
Geoff, I’m thinking this is the best way to use these numbers: Run all the stats above, then treat it a little like BABIP. So what I’d conclude from the above is this:
More goals are scored against, fewer goals for, when Leino was on the ice. But the same number of shots were taken by both teams in each situation. So either he was unlucky in shooting percentage (both ends of the ice) or they were allowing better scoring chances while creating worse scoring chances.
by MarioD on Feb 6, 2010 12:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, that’s definitely a great way of showing it.
As far as luck goes, there’s a stat that tries to show it. It isn’t pefect (and it’s been attacked) but PDO is the combination of a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage when the player is on the ice. Even the article I linked to says it’s supposed to be similar to BABIP, but it’s obviously flawed.
Either way, Leino’s PDO is 949, second worst on the team. The theory is that everyone will average out to 1000, but just like BABIP, that’s obviously not true. Maybe Leino is unlucky, maybe he’s giving up a lot of great scoring chances while aiming at the other goalie’s logo. Don’t know. But his PDO is low.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 6, 2010 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oooooh. His most frequent EV partners were: Daniel Cleary and Henrik Zetterberg. 21.39% of the time. Not good
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 6, 2010 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
[Note: I’m dropping Shootout GVT below because its irrelevant to the conversation]
Cleary is only a 2.8 GVT.
And look at his other partners: 17% of the time was Filpula (2.8) and Williams (.2) And 10% was Maltby (.2) and Abelkader (-1.9).
Let me run that again looking at just OGVT: Filpula (1.9), Williams (.3), Maltby (-.6), Abelkader (-1.9).
His numbers are still the worst numbers of any numbers posted on this page.
by MarioD on Feb 6, 2010 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Give up on sending down JVR
Just stop it you silly man
by orangeandblack20 on Feb 6, 2010 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
God forbid we theorize Homer would do something smart.
by MarioD on Feb 6, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone else feeling like some other move might happen today?
by Nolbs13 on Feb 6, 2010 12:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Today, no. But before the roster freeze is likely.
"NO HONOR"
by JpH89 on Feb 6, 2010 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Given the questionable nature of trading for a left-winger, there’s a good possibility we could see something else in the very near future. Maybe not today, but perhaps in the next few days or coming week.
Proudly supporting a Flyers team with "no honor".
by JFein on Feb 6, 2010 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah i could definitly see that, im also curious to see if they are sending JVR to Glenn Falls.
by Nolbs13 on Feb 6, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Leino is also signed for next season at a very cap friendly $800k.
by MarioD on Feb 6, 2010 12:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Cap friendly is not a word we use here at BSH.
"NO HONOR"
by JpH89 on Feb 6, 2010 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nor is cap space…words that are used…carbomb, Homer, NTC/NMC and disappointment.
by EREX21 on Feb 6, 2010 12:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Detroit has immediately placed OKT on waivers.
by flyrsfrk05 on Feb 6, 2010 1:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The whole reason Detroit made the trade was so they could get Franzen back in the lineup. Leino would’ve been claimed if he were waived, so they traded him for a guy who wouldn’t get waived (OKT) and got a pick out of the deal as well.
Broad Street Hockey - SB Nation's Philadelphia Flyers Blog. Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Travis Hughes on Feb 6, 2010 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well done Detroit. impressive planning.
by flyrsfrk05 on Feb 6, 2010 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not that we want to,but theoretically, could we then pick up OKT off wavers and have Detroit pay 1/2 his salary?
by Prometheus74 on Feb 6, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Only works if they try to bring him back up on re-entry waivers. If we pick him up on waivers, we pay his whole salary.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 6, 2010 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Draft pick tracker is updated…
Went back and threw some previous years in there as well.
Broad Street Hockey - SB Nation's Philadelphia Flyers Blog. Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Travis Hughes on Feb 6, 2010 2:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hm, link didn’t go…
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/139155/Flyers_Draft_Pick_Tracker.htm
Broad Street Hockey - SB Nation's Philadelphia Flyers Blog. Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Travis Hughes on Feb 6, 2010 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not accurate, actually. I made it a 2010 fifth and it’s a 2011.
Updated now.
Broad Street Hockey - SB Nation's Philadelphia Flyers Blog. Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Travis Hughes on Feb 6, 2010 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I love this deal. Good prospect that THN had picked SECOND to win the Calder. He’s still young and very hungry to redeem himself.
There’s a ton of great, young forwards over the years who hit a rough bump. Look at Carter and Richards in the 06-07 season.
by Michael4L on Feb 6, 2010 2:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Leino is still worth a lot more than a 5th round pick and OKT was not worth a thing so I am very pleased with the deal. Give Leino another season to come out of his shell and people will call this deal a steal!
by Prometheus74 on Feb 6, 2010 2:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
So who does he replace
Or what line might he be on?
by Slizeezyc on Feb 6, 2010 2:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I’ve been trying to figure out the same thing. The only possibility I’ve come up with is that this isn’t the only move that will be made. There’s no room for him in the fold as the team is currently constructed.
Broad Street Hockey - SB Nation's Philadelphia Flyers Blog. Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Travis Hughes on Feb 6, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wish Leino had a two way contract just so we could send him down. But, he tore up the AHL and people are saying he is a top 2 line talent. I think you are right Travis. I think there is more to come and Leino will just be depth. What is annoying is that there is no reason for this Flyers team to not be scoring and for Homer to have to be looking for a player who will produce up front. All Homer should have to do is add a solid defensemen who can play with Coburn on the third pairing (Boynton, anyone?) and hope Emery stays healthy and gets in a groove.
Then again, we have seen that this team on paper hardly translates to the ice . . .
by flyrsfrk05 on Feb 6, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if he had a two way contract he still be in DET playing Grand Rapids
by chrislanci on Feb 6, 2010 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What I love is over at the SN Detroit blog “Winging it in Motown” they are rooting for Leino to have success here so it will hurt the Penguins.
by Prometheus74 on Feb 6, 2010 3:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Now wait a minute.
We’re talking about Paul Holmgren.
This is the only move that will be made.
My guess is that they’ll rotate him, JVR, and Powe in and out of the lineup.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
by mikefive on Feb 6, 2010 3:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
As for the deal itself...
I like the trade.
One thing the Flyers have been very good at is taking talented players AWAY from bad situations and/or teams where they are used incorrectly, THEN letting those players play their game and blossom.
Could Leino be the next Reggie Leach or John LeClair? Probably not, but he’s got talent. We’ll see.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
by mikefive on Feb 6, 2010 3:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
given that leclair was a rock in the crease...
no.
Eat what the monkey eats, then eat the monkey. -U.S. Navy survival guidance
by psudrozz on Feb 6, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not sure about this trade
on the ice, lavy’s system is heavy on rotation between pinching d and wingers covering for them.
the good is that this guy has the wheels to cover for the D.
the bad is that given the scouting report, he’s going to get destroyed if someone crashes the net on him. this is what worries me.
and mark eaton just took out his own goaltender (not fleury).
5-2 habs right now.
Eat what the monkey eats, then eat the monkey. -U.S. Navy survival guidance
by psudrozz on Feb 6, 2010 4:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Do the Red Wings still employ Third Man High? …if so then this guy would be familiar with what Laviolette wants. . Perhaps then this guy will adjust to his new team more easily and score some goals.
by j reed on Feb 6, 2010 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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