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Defensive Pairings: Are They Working?

Coburn-Bartulis might not be the best pairing, but it's also not the worst.  Thanks to Braydon Coburn. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Fred Chartrand)

More photos » Fred Chartrand - AP

Coburn-Bartulis might not be the best pairing, but it's also not the worst. Thanks to Braydon Coburn. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Fred Chartrand)

Have you ever wondered if the Flyers defensive pairings of Kimmo Timonen - Braydon Coburn and Ryan Parent - Oskars Bartulis were the best pairs to use?  What about the reason the Batrulis-OKT pairing was struggling so much?

I know Ole-Kristian Tollefsen was traded today, so this post is a little late.  It doesn't matter since the point remains:  what two defensemen work best together and who works best apart?

Before the stats scare you away, it's very simple this time.  I'm sticking solely with Corsi and Fenwick numbers.  For those of you unfamiliar, Corsi counts shots directed at the net - goals, shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots.  Fenwick counts all the same numbers, minus the blocked shots.  The numbers below will be in decimal form with .500 being an equal number of shots at the opponent's net as at your own net.

Sound simple enough?  Good.  Jump for the table.

Star-divide

As hinted at above, the table will look at Coburn and Timonen; Bartulis and Tollefsen; and Bartulis and Parent.

GF GA Fenwick Corsi
Coburn 37 37 0.547 0.544
Timonen 36 29 0.553 0.534
Both 21 19 0.574 0.559
Coburn w/o Timonen 16 18 0.512 0.526
Timonen w/o Coburn 15 10 0.522 0.497
Bartulis 19 28 0.436 0.444
Tollefsen 9 8 0.509 0.514
Both 5 3 0.410 0.426
Bartulis w/o Tollefsen 14 25 0.440 0.446
Tollefsen w/o Bartulis 4 5 0.566 0.565
Bartulis 19 28 0.436 0.444
Parent 7 12 0.448 0.456
Both 4 9 0.440 0.448
Bartulis w/o Parent 15 19 0.435 0.461
Parent w/o Bartulis 3 3 0.661 0.470

All numbers acquired from Vic Ferrari's timeonice.com

If you want the full chart with shots, missed shots, blocked shots, shooting percentage, etc. click here.

Coburn-Timonen

Starting at the top, you'll notice that both are in the positive in Fenwick and Corsi.  The only time one of them drops below is when you look at Timonen playing without Coburn.  Even then, he's only losing the blocked shots category (since Fenwick doesn't include blocked shots).  Also important to note is that Timonen and Coburn's numbers are a lot better when they're together than when either are apart.  For how poorly this pairing played at the beginning of the year, it's somewhat surprising to see that as a pair, they are outshooting their opponents more than when they're separated.

So if you see these numbers and say Timonen and Coburn should be paired together, who is your third pairing?  For awhile, that third pairing was Bartulis with one of either Parent or Tollefsen.  With Parent hurt and Tollefsen gone, this isn't how the team is constructed any more but the analysis still holds.

Bartulis-Tollefsen

This pairing is defunct, but it's good to look at to notice that it wasn't Tollefsen who was dragging Bartulis down even though it may have appeared that way.  First caveat:  Tollefsen didn't play much, so there is some sample size argument here.  Either way, the pairing was a plus-2 this year despite getting severely out shot.  When you separate the two, Tollefsen was a minus one while severely outshooting the opposition.  Why Tollefsen spent nearly 40% of his even-strength time with Bartulis is unknown:  The pairing was worse than either player alone.  They should have stayed away from each other.

The argument with Bartulis shows the sample size problem.  Bartulis' yearlong totals are the same as his numbers without Tollefsen:  He gets outshot and outscored.  In other words, the time he spent playing with Tollefsen had a marginal effect on his stats.  This is probably because only 12.6% of Bartulis' even-strength ice time was with Tollefsen.  But most of his time was spent with Parent.  Was this a good fit?

Bartulis-Parent

As hinted at above, nearly 36% of Bartulis' EV TOI was with Parent (over 63% of Parent's time was with Bartulis).  If you look at the charts, this also wasn't a very good fit.  They didn't get outshot nearly as bad as the Bartulis-OKT pairing, but they did finish a minus-5 together.  Some of that might be luck, some of that might be goaltending, but Parent and Bartulis were not as bad.

Looking at the numbers, you can see that the pairing was only slightly better than Bartulis' overall numbers while slightly worse than Parent's.  Splitting them up seemed to improve both of their numbers, but that is most likely due to who each of their second most common partner was:  Timonen for Parent and Coburn for Bartulis.

Conclusion

Timonen and Coburn are better together than apart.  However, even when they're apart, they're still winning the shot battle.  Having a third-pairing of inexperienced defensemen (whether that be OKT, Bartulis, Parent, or the not-included Syvret) only hurts both player's numbers.  Splitting Timonen and Coburn up may break up a good pairing, but it makes their fifth and sixth defensemen better.

The pairing of Parent and Timonen had another small sample size (only 15 games together) but put up a Fenwick score of 0.509 and a Corsi score of 0.542.  Both above average, even their combined plus-2.  Coburn and Bartulis, meanwhile, played in 33 games together putting up a 0.450 Fenwick and a 0.461 Corsi.  In those games, they're a minus-4 together.  That pairing doesn't work so well.  I like Oskars Bartulis a lot, but he's clearly this team's worst defenseman.  Until Parent and/or Syvret return, the team will have to continue hiding Bartulis.  He has shown the best results with Coburn (opposed to Parent or Tollefsen) so far, but it's still not what you need.

What are your thoughts?

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Your conclusion is the exact same reason the Flyers’ first pair isn’t Pronger-Timmonen.

by MarioD on Feb 6, 2010 6:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Oh, and let’s add that John Stevens understood this and paired Kimmo with Bartulis and Coburn with Parent once the Danny Syvret experiment was acknowledged as a failure.

It’s only Laviolette who has allowed the third pair to be a black hole while keeping Coburn and Kimmo together.

by MarioD on Feb 6, 2010 6:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

He has recently split them up though.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 6, 2010 6:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bartulis spent most of the Oilers game with Coburn, Krajicek was with Kimmo. Source.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 6, 2010 6:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Same with the Calgary game.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Feb 6, 2010 7:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Only for Krajicek. Rather than see how he played with Bartulis, now he splits up Coburn and Kimmo. It makes no sense.

by MarioD on Feb 6, 2010 7:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Laviolette's rationale...

Take it for what it’s worth. From the Flyers…

Instead, the head coach decided to put Krajicek with veteran Kimmo Timonen, and pair Bartulis with Braydon Coburn. The result of the move was what some players were calling the team’s best 60-minute effort in quite some time. Philadelphia allowed just 18 shots on goal and came away with a 3-0 shutout win over the Flames.

Laviolette explained the rationale behind the move after today’s practice at Rexall Place in Edmonton.

"Once we went over their lines again, we thought it would be best to have three units that could go out there and play against anybody," he said. "We felt by splitting it up, we were strong enough with all three pairs to go anywhere we wanted with [them]."

Bartulis, of course, is still a rookie, while Krajicek was playing in his first game as a Flyer. With the Flames getting the last change since they were the home team, Laviolette wanted to make sure he had at least one experienced player on the ice at all times.

"You’d end up with Bart and Lukas coming in for the first time…with Lukas and Kimmo, that really strengthens up that pair, to the point where you feel confident."

"I really liked it. I thought we played a real good defensive game."

Krajicek, who had been watching tape of Timonen and Matt Carle leading up to the game so he could learn how to play on the left side in Laviolette’s system, was told of the change about 30 minutes before the game. He adjusted quickly to the right side in an impressive Flyers debut, and credited Timonen for helping him along.

"Kimmo makes it easy on you. He doesn’t put you in any trouble, or give you the puck when you’re not supposed to get it. It felt pretty good," he said.

Broad Street Hockey - SB Nation's Philadelphia Flyers Blog. Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Travis Hughes on Feb 6, 2010 7:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Okay then. Why he couldn’t figure that out 12 games earlier when it was OKT/Syvret and Bartulis…

by MarioD on Feb 6, 2010 7:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My error was that I didn’t think he was viewing Krajicek to be as mediocre as he is assessing him in those comments.

I actually thought he was thinking Krajicek was better than Coburn.

by MarioD on Feb 6, 2010 7:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Like the post said, Coburn and Timonen are better together, but they’re still solid on their own. I think it’s the best way to hide Bartulis, personally.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 6, 2010 7:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree.

I thought that in Laviolette’s mind, however, the depth chart was:

Pronger
Timmonen
Carle
Krajicek
Coburn
Bartulis

Hence pairing Kimmo and Krajicek together would be continuing to make the same mistake he made while pairing Kimmo and Coburn together.

But from that quote, he clearly sees Coburn as the better player, at least until Krajicek gets used to playing with the Flyers.

by MarioD on Feb 6, 2010 7:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Mario I am really curious to see what you think about Krajicek? I know it has only been 2 games, and we can both agree that Coburn is a better player, but do you think he shores up the blue line or should we still be in the market for a Dman?

by You don't have to be sweet, to be good on Feb 6, 2010 8:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t know yet.

I would’ve claimed Boynton to get Bartulis off the ice.

by MarioD on Feb 7, 2010 12:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If we keep the pairings of the last 2 games we will be fine. 1 goal against in 2 games, bad competition sure but they are still NHL teams and we have played well defensively. We need wingers, and basically a sniper who can finish…. too many playmakers. Anyways, that is just my 2 cents.

by You don't have to be sweet, to be good on Feb 6, 2010 6:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thank God!

OKT was the problem. The stats lie. OKT doesn’t pass the eyeball test as an NHL player. If you watch him, his only ability is along the wall. He can’t handle a player on the rush, can’t skate, can’t pass. Not sure Detroit is ready for his kind of “consistency”.

Phigment

by Phigment on Feb 6, 2010 7:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Pardon my ignorance, but why wasn’t the Pronger-Carle dynamic included?

by ToddtheFox on Feb 7, 2010 4:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Mainly because I wanted to look at whether splitting up Kimmo and Coburn was worth it in reference to the third pairing.

There are a lot of different combinations, but since Carle and Pronger haven’t been paired with a 5/6 defenseman, I didn’t include them. Plus, Carle’s spent 90% of his EV TOI with Pronger, Timonen, and Coburn. And Pronger has spent 94% of his EV TOI with Carle, Coburn, and Timonen.

Maybe I could have looked at their numbers together, but their “apart” data doesn’t shed any light on the bottom pairing.

Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.

by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 7, 2010 5:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs


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