Could the Flyers catch Ottawa? New Jersey? Buffalo? ... Pittsburgh?
by Travis Hughes on Mar 11, 2010 11:55 AM EST
in Commentary
65 comments
Is it possible, that just three months after the playoffs seemed like an impossibility, that the Flyers could wind up in fifth place in the East? Or fourth? What about third? Or even second?
Some of those are very reasonable possibilities. Others, not so much. But the more you look at it, the more it seems that sixth place probably isn't the Flyers destiny. At the very least, it's in their hands.
Let's take a look at each of the teams that are currently ahead of the Flyers in the standings. Washington won't be caught unless they lose every game the rest of the season, a highly unlikely proposition. Let's start at the bottom with the other team from a nation's capital, the Ottawa Senators.
Many consider the Sens a fluke team. They had a nice lengthy winning streak a few weeks back that propelled them up in the Eastern Conference race, and riding two mediocre goaltenders seems to be working for them at the moment. But when all is said and done, the Sens are four points ahead of the Flyers right now having played two extra games. If the Flyers are to win those games in hand, they'll sit tied with the Sens, and if you add that the two teams play one more game against each other on March 23, it becomes even more possible to catch them.
Ahead of the Sens, the Sabres sit tied with New Jersey at 81 points. They've gone through a rough patch recently but seem to be breaking out of it post-Olympics, winning three straight. It's all up to Ryan Miller for them, and considering that he's, um, unbelievable, Buffalo is in good hands.
Then there's the Devils, who have completely fallen apart since even before the Olympic break. Sure, they had a nice 6-3 win in New Jersey last night, but on the whole, they've gone 7-12-2 since January 14. Things are not going well, and you could even call last night's game a bit of a weird one considering there was virtually no defense on either side of the puck.
So, you have a reeling Devils team sitting seven points ahead of Philadelphia right now. If they continue to struggle, the Flyers can certainly catch them. They'll be helped if they can win the one remaining game between the two teams on March 28. If they can manage that, it's just a five point gap the rest of the way. That's manageable, especially if New Jersey continues their lengthy slump into April. Much stranger things have happened.
Catching Pittsburgh would be one of those much stranger things, for example. Is it possible? Yes, it certainly is. Will it happen? Likely not. Here's why: Pittsburgh is currently up 10 points on the Flyers, but we do have another game remaining against the Pens. If they can scratch two points out of it, they also have a game in hand over Pittsburgh. That's four points made up right there, and if making up five on the Devils is possible, making up six on Pittsburgh is as well. But, that's the major difference.
New Jersey is seriously slumping to the point where fans dont have answers, while the Penguins have just one loss in their last ten games. In other words, they're red hot and it's not likely they'll be caught.
The Flyers should focus on New Jersey. That means passing Ottawa and taking the fourth seed. It's more than possible, really. As Philly fans, we're kind of inherently negative. But you know what? This is reason for some optimism. The two teams ahead of the Flyers are playing mediocre-to-downright-poor hockey, and there's no reason that our team can't catch up.
Since January 1, the Flyers have earned 33 points in 25 games. New Jersey has just 22 points in that time. Buffalo: 25. Pittsburgh: 31. The orange and black are playing just as well as these teams are right now at the time it matters most, so why can't game one of the 2010 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals be at the Wachovia Center?
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I think the Flyers will catch and pass the Devils and Ottawa but that is the farthest I think they can go.
by edbro on Mar 11, 2010 12:09 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I definitely think we can pass Ottawa. If the Devils keep slumping, we should pass them as well. I think we’ll only pass Buffalo if Miller ends up having fatigue issues from the Olympics. I don’t think that’s likely, and they still have a game in hand on us.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
You guys could definitely catch Ottawa
But at the same time, Ottawa could definitely keep their lead, it all depends who gets on (and sustains) a hot streak to end the season. As good as Leighton’s been, both of our teams have the same question mark in nets.
by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 11, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with everything you just said
The teams above us are not standing on strong foundations and are all shaky (excluding Washington)
Im not saying we are firing on all cylinders,but we are in a great position to become the team peaking at the right time. While the other teams might be showing cracks in their armor, or fatigue from long seasons, as long as the Flyers take care of their business I think we could begin spring looking optimistic.
if the flyers win the next two games (i don’t care how), i will believe that they can pass 3 of the 4 teams listed.
pittsburgh? unless something happens to the pens (like next thrusday. just sayin’) we aren’t catching them.
but i will gladly take 4th-i have been watching the caps all year, and they are entirely beatable by this flyers team. that, and i would like to face buffalo, nj, or ottawa in the first round with home ice*.
*realtive term applied to nj
Eat what the monkey eats, then eat the monkey. -U.S. Navy survival guidance
I’m rooting for them to get 4th only say I can say that I told Mario so. I think I said 4-6th seed during the whole slump.
To me, their final seeding doesn’t matter to me anymore as long as it isn’t 7 or 8.
So like I said yesterday, I think the 3-6th team “tourney” in the middle is one that leads me to believe that winning the first round is entirely possible and plausible.
This is how I see it for the 2nd round though.
If the Flyers end up in the 5th or 6th seed, we are going to play Washington in round 2. If we miracously get the 4th seed, we are going to probably see Pittsburgh in round 2. So pick your poison, it doesn’t mean anything unless we can make a run for the Atlantic title. (which as Travis pointed out is highly unlikely)
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Mar 11, 2010 1:50 PM EST reply actions
You can say told you so anyway. 2 months ago he was posting (along with others) that the Flyers wouldn’t even make the playoffs. So for those nay sayers, anyone want to admit they were wrong? Imagine if we could actually get Mario to admit he was wrong? It won’t happen, but it should, just so people in hell can play some hockey too!
What I said was they’d miss the playoffs because the other teams around them would improve and they couldn’t due to Holmgren’s mismanagement. The teams comparable to the Flyers didn’t bother improving at the deadline.
They’re currently on pace for 93 points, which should be borderline playoffs if the rest of the conference wasn’t so horrible.
you’re still wrong, there are no gimme’s. You were wrong. You’re right about most things, but I was right about this, regardless of how much you want to “spin” and weasle your way out of it.
Let’s take a community vote. If you get even more than 2 votes in your favor, I’ll be shocked.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Mar 11, 2010 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
First off, the season’s not over and the Flyers are playing shitty hockey, so I’m not sure why you’re counting any chickens.
When you and I broke it down, I had the Flyers finishing in 8th or 9th. I had Carolina ahead of them, before they lost Cam Ward for the year. That changes to 7th or 8th, which is where they’re going to finish anyway.
the season’s not over
True.
the Flyers are playing shitty hockey
True, but if the second half of the Islanders game is any indication they’re starting to get back into a groove. Hopefully they are.
I’m not sure why you’re counting any chickens.
I agree with you there. History tells us that they’ll make it, but I’m not saying that they’re in until they’re in.
That changes to 7th or 8th, which is where they’re going to finish anyway.
You were saying about “counting chickens?”
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
I’m not counting my chickens you however are already posturing how you’re going to explain away being flat out wrong.
If they finish 7th or 8th (regardless of how you hedge your prediction of missing the playoffs) I will man-up and say once again…Mario was right
However, I have neither hedged my bets or any such nonsense. I broke it down and stated “they will finish 4-6th place” period. And this was in the middle of some dreadfully bad hockey, so it’s not like I was making an easy prediction.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Mar 11, 2010 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
I think you’re being a bit silly. You and I analyzed the conference based on what we knew at the time and what we expected to happen.
I mean, we can be concerned with who’s right and wrong. Or we can look at what you, I, or both of us in some cases, expected to happen that didn’t, and what we can learn from it.
I’m saying we both severely overrated the conference as a whole, and neither of us would’ve predicted back then that 88 points would get the 7th seed.
I’m saying I was mistaken in expecting the bad teams to improve at the deadline this year. Instead, teams like Atlanta and Tampa just phoned in the season rather than selling out for trying to get in the playoffs like they have in the past. And teams like Montreal, Boston, and the Rangers were too hamstrung by the cap to improve.
Regardless of where the Flyers do finish, I find the above two paragraphs to be the interesting part of the conversation.
perhaps, you can craft it that way, but I see it a little different. Of course, being right on a “message” board is highly overrated anyway, which I hope you see the humor in regardless.
I’m saying we both severely overrated the conference as a whole, and neither of us would’ve predicted back then that 88 points would get the 7th seed.
That said, I did none of these things. I looked at the makeup of each team in the conference, weighed the quality of their play and historically how they had performed and made an estimation of where I believed the Flyers would finish. I did not do a hypothetical projection of what threshhold of points would be required to make the playoffs, as in my mind it was far to early to make such projections as they oftentimes prove to be false (as is the case in this season, as it has been for just about every season since the institution of the SO.)
I’m saying I was mistaken in expecting the bad teams to improve at the deadline this year. Instead, teams like Atlanta and Tampa just phoned in the season rather than selling out for trying to get in the playoffs like they have in the past. And teams like Montreal, Boston, and the Rangers were too hamstrung by the cap to improve.
at least you admit you were mistaken, however, if you would have told me at the time, you were basing your conclusions on the above, I would have told you to readjust your thinking because Atlanta/Tampa typically run their franchises in a more conservative fashion given ownership constraints and Montreal/Boston/Rangers being up against the cap isn’t a new development.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Mar 11, 2010 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
I definitely at the time stated that I was basing my statement on other teams improving. That was how the whole conversation started. I said they were fucked because Holmgren blew $1.3m on not having Randy Jones and they no longer had the cushion they needed to improve at the deadline, and everyone else would pass them by.
mario’s got a point….
season ain’t over yet, people. why bother going into hinsight rationale’s and “what could be”?
Eat what the monkey eats, then eat the monkey. -U.S. Navy survival guidance
because it’s fun to bust mario’s balls
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Mar 11, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Oh, don’t forget that you said that Laviolette is a horrible coach. But irregardless of what other teams did/didn’t do doesn’t matter. You said the Flyers weren’t making the playoffs.
I’m willing to give him a pass on the Laviolette thing. I’m not going to anoint Laviolette as a great coach yet because I think even I could coach this roster to a half respectable record.
If Laviolette gets this team past Pittsburgh or Washington, then I’ll say Mario was wrong about that too.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Mar 11, 2010 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
stevens didn’t get a fair shot. He was management’s escape goat. It came out later that Emery was hurt, the team was in dissaray and basically getting quite unlucky. Most of the things that led to Stevens getting canned had very little to do with his ability to coach as it had to do with the circumstances at the time.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Mar 11, 2010 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
I liked Stevens and I still wish him the best. I don’t think he deserved to be fired. But I think the team needed someone like Laviolette to whip them into shape, too.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
sorry, i’m not buying what you’re selling.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Mar 11, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
Damn… I was going to offer you a “can’t-miss” price on the Tacony-Palmyra Bridge. Oh well.
I’m not selling anything, just stating my opinion.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
i was hoping it was a free membership to cougarlife.com
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Mar 11, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
I can get those for you if you’re really, really interested.
Broad Street Hockey - SB Nation's Philadelphia Flyers Blog. Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Travis Hughes on Mar 11, 2010 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
haha, i probably don’t fit the definition of a “cub”
*YES, I CLICKED THE DAMN LINK PEOPLE
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Mar 11, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
exactly, I’m not jumping on the Laviolette is a great coach and the savior of this organization bandwagon UNTIL he proves that he can take this roster full of all-stars/olympians etc. further than 2 rounds of the playoffs.
Stevens got to the ECF with much less.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Mar 11, 2010 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
Stevens got to the ECF with much less.
Don’t know if I’d go that far. This team is probably technically better than the one 2 years ago, but it is not as good in certain aspects (i.e. scoring).
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
are you f’ing kidding me? Alright in fairness let’s break it down.
Goaltending: Biron was better than Leighton, no doubt. Biron however, was much better in the playoffs then in the regular season. You could say kind of the same about Leighton, that his reg. season numbers have been much better than he normally plays. I’m still giving the edge to Biron.
Defense: This year’s D is light year’s better than that one 2 years ago. Basically after Timmo, there was nobody (which was quickly exposed when he went down to injury).
Forwards: I’m not sure I agree that the forwards that year were better. That year we had Briere at 31 goals, and then 5 guys (Carter, Knuble, Richards, Hartnell, Lupul) with 20+ This year we have Carter with 31 already, 2 guys with 20 (Richards/Briere) and 4 guys with more than ten. It’s very feasible that 3 of those 10+ goal guys (I’m going to be Gags, Giroux, JVR) are going to hit the 20 goal plateau. To do that, they only have to each score about 1 goal every 3 games, which doesn’t seem that unlikely.
I’m still of the opinion that the defense alone on this team is enough to say that Stevens got to the ECF with much less to work with.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Mar 11, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
To clarify:
I agree 100% about defense. This is the best defensive corps we’ve had in a long time.
My concern for this year’s edition (which I didn’t have 2 years ago) has been scoring. Recently, that hasn’t been an issue. As long as everyone continues to produce, it WON"T be an issue. But that team had more 20+ goal depth, at least in terms of actual production. (As opposed to “projected production that doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of being right this year,” i.e., Hartnell and Gagne.)
My only real objection was based on semantics. You say that Stevens had “much less” to work with than Lavy does this year; I say he had “less” to work with. But still, we agree that this year’s edition is better overall.
JohnCougarMellencampLife.com
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
even if the scoring depth is a wash or that team was slightly better, my point is that with that defense that Stevens had, he worked a [expletive] miracle taking that as far as he did.
Lavy on the other hand (minus Emery) has inherited a team that pretty much everyone picked to make a stanley cup run pre-season.
nicewrapup.com
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Mar 11, 2010 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough.
ibasicallyagreewithyoubutmyonlyissuewaswordchoice.gov/true?=yes.htm
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
wow, it took you guys long enough, haha.
my favorite “comment” once about the flyers from a few years ago that was posted in seriousness. I try to use it whenever possible.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Mar 12, 2010 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
The Flyers will finish no higher than 4th.
Based solely on the unfettered power of my imagination, here is how teh Eesturn Konfrinssss will be come playoff thyme:
1. The Districkt of Columbia Russian All-Stars Featuring Mike Knuble
2. That Team From The City Where Nate McLouth Used To Play
3. Mark Ruffalo’s Sabres
4. The Philadelphia Flyers! (in Jim Hughson voice)
5. The Newark Wilder Boys (New Jersey ain’t the whole world)
6. That CH Team That Collectively Speaks With a Guttaral French Accent
7. The Ottawa Pizzenators
8. The Atlanta Thrashin’ Bravehawks
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
I think fifth place should be The Team Formerly Known As The Kansas City Scouts
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
That makes sense. I was listening to Pavement this morning, and since Los Diablos play in Newark…
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
Over season performance (for the conference) has them in 6th after 82 with 94 points.
Current Streak with Current standings has them finishing 3rd in points (with 99-100) 4th in conference (Pittsburgh projects 108 points in this calculation)
Average of the two scores for the conference has them catching Ottawa but not NJ.
The way things are shaping up with the Caps, Pens, and Sabres, I would much rather be in 4-5 than 6 (assuming that being in 4-5 would mean we’d play NJ or Ottawa).
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
I’d be fine with that. That would almost assuredly mean that the chances of us playing Washington in round 2 would be pretty good and I’d probably rather face them then Pittsburgh. Let Pittsburgh duke it out with Buffalo.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Mar 11, 2010 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
…so why can’t game one of the 2010 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals be at the Wachovia Center?
Because in order to secure that, they’ll end up needing to get at least one point from the last game of the regular season, which is at home against the Rangers.
Ah, I see what you did there…
Broad Street Hockey - SB Nation's Philadelphia Flyers Blog. Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Travis Hughes on Mar 11, 2010 2:41 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Many consider the Sens a fluke team. They had a nice lengthy winning streak a few weeks back that propelled them up in the Eastern Conference race, and riding two mediocre goaltenders seems to be working for them at the moment.
Thank god that isn’t our situation.
Of course not – in order to be riding two mediocre goaltenders, Boucher would need to get ice time.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Mar 11, 2010 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
well played sir
+1
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Mar 11, 2010 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
Mediocrity
I don’t expect them to play any better or any worse, so I guess that puts them right where they are now or best case scenario fifth. With the crazy schedules over the last 5 weeks of the season there is going to be a surprise playoff berth and a surprise playoff dropout. I am just hoping we aren’t the latter.
I’d love to play the Senators in the playoffs. I’d actually like to see the Flyers finish 6th, Ottawa finish 3rd (which I don’t think is going to happen because Buffalo is better and will win the division) and then look at facing Washington in the 2nd round. Because the Caps have no defense and are so top heavy, they scare me less then a well balanced team. I am not saying our defense is capable of shutting down their attack but I want to avoid playing the Penguins, not because they are a good team, but because they just have our number and are in the Flyers’ heads. Or, we finish 4th and the Senators finish 5th and hope for an upset so we delay facing the Capitals. Idk tho . . .
Playoff probabilities according to playoffstatus.com:
No playoffs: 2%
Playoffs: 98%
7th seed or better: 94%
6th seed or better: 82%
5th seed or better: 37%
4th seed or better: 7%
3rd seed or better: <1%
How come every time Travis writes one of these articles the Flyers shit the bed? Here’s hoping they don’t go on the kind of run they did last time, because that means no playoffs.
"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luuko
Also notice how I write an article about how Carcillo has matured and then two games later he shoves the damn linesman…
Broad Street Hockey - SB Nation's Philadelphia Flyers Blog. Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Travis Hughes on Mar 12, 2010 8:22 PM EST up reply actions
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| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Jersey
|
82 | 48 | 27 | 7 | 103 |
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Pittsburgh
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82 | 47 | 28 | 7 | 101 |
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Philadelphia
|
82 | 41 | 35 | 6 | 88 |
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New York Rangers
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New York Islanders
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82 | 34 | 37 | 11 | 79 |
(updated 4.12.2010 at 9:21 AM EDT)
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Thu 10/07 | 7:00 PM EDT |
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St. Louis
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Sat 10/09 | 8:00 PM EDT |
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Colorado
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Mon 10/11 | 7:00 PM EDT |
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Tampa Bay
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Thu 10/14 | 7:00 PM EDT |
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Pittsburgh
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Sat 10/16 | 7:00 PM EDT |
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