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Around SBN: MLB Trade Deadline: Who is available around MLB?

Examining The Flyers Playoff Hunt Following Deadline Day

At SBN's Thrashers blog, Bird Watchers Anonymous, they've examined the last several playoff races following the deadline and they've come up with several conclusions about how the proceedings typically shake out following that day.

They broke down the standings each year in order to get some sort of idea how teams have historically fared when chasing teams already inside the playoff bubble from deadline day forward.

I'd recommend heading over and getting the full read before delving into what I'm to write below, just so you can understand the logic behind their post and behind coming to the conclusions they have. Note that all of the analysis is strictly historical and doesn't take into account this Flyers team. It's examining past trends.

Star-divide

The first conclusion:

It is extremely difficult for a team to make up ground after the Trade Deadline. If you're not within a point or two of 8th place on Trade Day the odds of making the post-season are very tough.

At the trade deadline, the Philadelphia Flyers held a five point lead over 9th place New York. A point or two? Yes, the Rangers were just one point out of the final spot, but that doesn't mean they're likely to catch the 6th place Flyers.

That, however, doesn't mean it can't happen. The next conclusion:

Only two teams have manged to overcome any sizable point deficit in the last 4 springs. The 2008 Washington Capitals made up 5 points and 2007 Rangers made up 7 points. Out of about 20 teams seeking to break into the top 8 only 10% have managed the feat over the last 4 springs.

That's impressive, and it basically says that teams who are in the playoff picture at deadline day typically stay there. 90 percent of the time, in fact. But, it also says that teams have gone on hot streaks to vastly improve their position. The Flyers certainly have a cushion of other teams below them to help out, though.

That brings us to this next conclusion, which should allow some of us to rest easily.

No team with a 4 point cushion on Trade Day has collapsed and fallen out of the playoffs (although the 2008 Ottawa Senators almost pulled it off)

Remember, the Flyers lead at the deadline was five points over 9th place.

In recent years the bubble teams have increased their W% post-trade deadline which pushed up the number of points needed to get into 8th place

This one seems a little disconcerting. Essentially, it means that bubble teams, which the Flyers are not considered in BWA's numbers because of the point cushion they held on deadline day, increase their win percentage at the end of the season. Taking this into account with the fact that teams essentially never give up their positions leads you to believe that the teams in 5th, 6th and 7th places typically increase their win percentages as well.

While the bubble teams are fighting it out and essentially making it harder on themselves because everybody is winning games, the pressure will be on the Flyers. They'll have to continue to win hockey games at the pace they have since the start of 2010 if they'd like to experience playoff hockey this year. Fortunately, the odds of getting that done are in their favor.

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I think you guys will win at least 13 out of your last 20. That would give you 95 points and a playoff spot

"You ever use smelling salts, every time you type a bad blog?" Brooks Laich

by CP2Devil on Mar 5, 2010 11:45 AM EST reply actions  

There were still people worried about the Flyers making the playoffs?

That’s definitely not my concern anymore. I’m more worried about getting killed in the first round.

Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com

by HockeyOutsiders on Mar 5, 2010 12:14 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

+1 Unfortunately tee-time may come early this year, hopefully they prove us wrong

by 88Flyers on Mar 5, 2010 12:19 PM EST up reply actions  

As long as you don’t mean literally “killed” then I can live with it.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Mar 5, 2010 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

if we end up facing the Penguins in the first round and get swept, I might be in favor of some executions

Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com

by HockeyOutsiders on Mar 5, 2010 2:04 PM EST up reply actions  

we have look at lot better against the Pens this year as compared to last and Pens are unlikely to enter the Playoffs on fire like they did last year and Fleury hasn’t been playing like he did last year. I doubt we will get swept, should go 7 unless Leighton shits the bed.

by chrislanci on Mar 5, 2010 3:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Last year we got stuck in a quagmire and could not step it up in the playoffs while the
Pens had a ton of great momentum heading into the playoffs, and we still made it a hard fought series.
if we finnish strong its the Penguins that will fear us
Thats not to say a lot of reporters will make their daily $, criticizing our lack of goaltenders experience

by Prometheus74 on Mar 5, 2010 4:04 PM EST up reply actions  

The difference in that series last year was that when the Flyers put it to the Pens, the Pens took it to another level. The Flyers did not respond. The Flyers beat themselves in that series. I’m hoping a little Olympic “seasoning” will help the leadership on this team so there is no repeat of that type of performance.

I’m still not convinced it won’t fall like that again though.

"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27

by Mike B on D on Mar 5, 2010 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I still believe that If not for a 1-1/2" piece of composite that series might have been a little different, but it always seems par for the course that it is just not in the cards.

by M from Pdaddy on Mar 5, 2010 6:19 PM EST up reply actions  

That last game man….not that I thought we would take the series but that 3 goals in less than a nano second comeback by the Pens…..The day before I had left a prescription that I couldn’t get refilled immediately in my pants pocket which threw in the washing machine. So I feel like shit and have all this crap to do as well, all after the game from hell and across the street there’s a wedding party with bagpiper…And not a good bagpiper. It’s dreadful enough well played well but to have to listen to Camptown Races, When the Saint Come Marching In, Old Susanna, Swing Low Sweet Chariot, Danny Boy, Coming Around the Mountain (i kid you not) in a loop because I guess that’s all you can learn of the Great SongBook of Bladder Trumpet in a year of bagpipe lessons, is punishable by older schizoid chimpanzee attack …since I didn’t have a rabid pet ChimChim around, I just yelled out snarky requests.

by j reed on Mar 5, 2010 6:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I still hate the whole sideshow of that diving fraud Talbot and how getting his ass kicked motivated the team. What a load of crap. The Flyers were on a slow train to shitsville with out that bull regardless.

by M from Pdaddy on Mar 5, 2010 7:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I will criticize players I think are dogging it, and I am happy point out the shortcommings of any given day,but once that second season starts, I am optimistic we ill be around at least until mid may.

by Prometheus74 on Mar 5, 2010 1:45 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Flyers are in

Philly has the best Goal Differential of the teams ranked #6-#8. Flyers have been a bit unlucky so far and should actually have more points in the standings. I’d be shocked if your team fell out of the race.

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Mar 5, 2010 1:56 PM EST reply actions  


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