The Case to Start Brian Boucher on Tuesday
by Geoff Detweiler on Mar 8, 2010 12:30 PM EST
in Commentary
67 comments
Remember Brian Boucher? He's the guy who came on in relief of Michael Leighton last Wednesday and promptly gave up 2 goals on his first 3 shots. Maybe that's because he hadn't seen playing time in exactly two months - January 3rd. It seems completely reasonable that Boucher would be a little rusty after not playing in two months.
With Ray Emery on LTIR, the Flyers have decided that Michael Leighton is their number one goalie. That means Brian Boucher is their number two. The problem is that both John Stevens and Peter Laviolette have forgotten that goaltenders (not named Martin Brodeur) need some rest, and their backups need playing time.
To start the season, John Stevens ran Ray Emery out 16 of the first 17 games. The only start Boucher got was against his former team (and NHL powerhouse), the San Jose Sharks. He got another start in the 18th game - a 3-2 win over Los Angeles - but he understandably looked shaky. You remember the weak goal he gave up in the first period: maybe that was because he hadn't seen any action in three weeks. After that, he rebounded nicely, preserving the win despite a last-minute flurry by the Kings.
Once Emery went down with injury, Boucher started 9 games in a row before getting hurt himself. In those nine games, Boucher had below average numbers: 2.89 gaa, 0.895 save percentage, 2-6-1 record. But, only three times did Boucher allow more than 2 goals. Only once did Boucher allow more than two even-strength goals. Only once in those nine games did the team score more than 2 goals (not counting empty-net goals).
Look at those numbers again. Boucher kept his team in 8 of the 9 games (a 6-1 loss to Pittsburgh, where they scored 1 PP goal and 2 SH goals) but the team couldn't score. At all. Boucher did nothing to relegate himself to the bench, but rather Leighton performed so well that he earned himself a spot. Laviolette then started Leighton 11 straight games before Emery returned from injury. At that point, Emery promptly started 8 straight games before getting injured again.
Now that Emery is out for the season, Boucher is back opening the bench door again. Ten straight games have seen Leighton start in net and Boucher start as the doorman. Look at that again: Only twice the entire season has the team started their backup when both goalies were healthy. (The stretch on the road in November when Boucher got 3 out of 4 starts, Emery was clearly hurt. If you count Leighton starting against the Leafs after Emery returned from injury, then it's three.) Despite everyone noting a three-headed goalie situation in Philly, the coaches have repeatedly limited their crease to one man's, and one man's only.
But it's time to split up that crease; it's time to play Boucher. And we're going to argue why. Jump for it.
- Brian Boucher needs to start on Tuesday because he isn't ready to play in the event that Leighton falls apart.
Boucher hasn't started since December 21st. Both times he has come on in relief of a faltering Michael Leighton (Jan. 3rd against Ottawa, and Mar. 3rd against Florida), he gave up two goals on four shots against Ottawa (a goal on the first shot), and two goals on three shots against Florida. He can practice every day, but until he's in an NHL game, the rust will show. Even in his next start, the first 3 or 5 shots on goal will be an adventure. This is what happens when a goalie sits on the bench doing nothing.
Imagine what would happen if Leighton gets hurt in the middle of a must win game, and Boucher has only played in one or two games up to then. Expect the other team to promptly score two goals. This is not Brian Boucher's fault. This would be Peter Laviolette's. - The best way to help Boucher shake the rust is against a team that is not very good.
As said above, Boucher is already rusty. This is evident by judging the first few minutes of each game he has entered. He will likely be rusty the next time he sees the ice, so you want to compensate by playing him against a team that is less likely to take advantage of this rust. In other words, avoid playing him against Washington, Pittsburgh, and San Jose. Instead, look for games against Edmonton, Toronto, and NY Islanders. Coincidentally, the Flyers just played Toronto and are playing the Islanders on Tuesday.
After seeing just how rusty Boucher was against Florida, he needs to shake it off sooner rather than later. The fact that the Islanders are next on the schedule makes this the perfect time to play him. - If Michael Leighton is your number one, he needs to be protected. He can use some rest.
After not acquiring a goaltender at the deadline, it's pretty clear that Michael Leighton will carry the load for the Flyers. He has never done this before during his career. His career high in games played is 34, occurring in 2003-04. Since then, his second most games played is 29, occurring this year. He will break his record for most games played. Seeing as how he's having a career year, the Flyers can't afford to tire him out.
The best way to give him some rest is against teams the Flyers should beat - with or without him. This includes the Islanders. - With the Olympic Break causing the stretch run to be jam-packed - they play 11 games in the next 20 days - the Flyers will need to play Brian Boucher a lot.
The team has three back-to-back games in the next three weeks. Brian Boucher will have to play at least two of them (should play three) and he is nowhere near ready to play Chicago/NY Rangers, Atlanta/Atlanta, and Pittsburgh/New Jersey. You don't want him getting his first start in three months against the Chicago Blackhawks. But he can be ready to play the Rangers if he gets some games in before that. This then circles back to point number 2, and concludes that Boucher should start against the Islanders on Tuesday. - So far this year, Boucher beats the Islanders. He's 2-0-0 with a 1.51 gaa and 0.943 save percentage in two games this season.
Not only does Boucher need playing time and need it against a weak team, the Islanders have only been able to score three goals in two games against him. This should be enough of a reason to wrap everything up nicely: Boucher needs to play, he should play against a weak team, Leighton could use some rest, the team needs Boucher to play over the next few weeks, and Boucher beats the Islanders.
Add all that up, and it is a no-brainer that Brian Boucher should start on Tuesday. Oh, and I'll be at the game and I want to wear my old-school Boucher jersey. There's 6 reasons he should start. Have any more?
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Also, if he looks bad, most of the US won’t see it anyway because it’s on VS.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
I couldn’t agree more, on every point here.
It’s crucial that Boucher get some games in sooner rather than later. Up until the playoffs, I don’t think there’s more than one off day between games. Leighton can’t handle it.
Broad Street Hockey - SB Nation's Philadelphia Flyers Blog. Makin' it look mean since 1967.
I would tack on a seventh and most dreaded reason: Michael Leighton could still fall apart completely. There’s a lot of season left, and while I feel fairly confident in Leighton, I’m never 100% confident that any goalie will always have his best game over any given period of time. Not because he’s bad, but because that’s how the position works—the funks are extra-funky.
Hell, let’s say we draw the Pens in round one, and they throw up 13 goals in the first two game in Pittsburgh. Boucher has to play game three, and I want to know that he’s seen game puck recently.
Brian Boucher needs to start on Tuesday because he isn’t ready to play in the even that Leighton falls apart.
Geoff mentioned this. But yes, all of your points are extremely valid. Oh, and ‘the funks are extra-funky’ is a great line.
Broad Street Hockey - SB Nation's Philadelphia Flyers Blog. Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Travis Hughes on Mar 8, 2010 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I mentioned it but probably didn’t put it as clear as I should have. That’s a huge reason.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Mar 8, 2010 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
This must be something the stat guys have looked at…
How do goalies’ numbers compare to normal when they’re working on <24 hours rest? How do they compare when they get past 60 or 65 starts in a season?
And conversely, how do backups compare to normal when they’re working on >10 days rest?
I’m sure these numbers aren’t too hard to dig up, and I’m curious to know how the lore and the numbers mesh.
I just sent an email to Gabriel Desjardins who said he’ll take a look. If he responds quickly, I’ll be sure to post it here.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Mar 8, 2010 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
The best data you probably can get is lolcked in some filing cabinet in derlict instutiuonal building in a defunct ex-Soviet homeland for athletes that some Chernobyl dosed siberia wolfhound named Kalashnikov watches over. It’s probably
next door to the bubonic plague outposts where samples of world’s most deadly virus samples are maintained in padlocked Frigidares for fringe outbreaks in rodent pops. in so bumfuck it might as well be Siberia. Most of what your seeing with these kids playing at the typical peak ages of 26-28 is the re-incarnation of the Red Army but from a better, more diverse gene pool. I don’t have actual data but , I can give you the physiological underpinnings that explains the data and how it applies if your interested.
Different from yours, FlyersFanInNZ or whatever it used to be.
I used to play ultimate frisbee pretty seriously, and a common strategy in low-level ultimate is to throw a long pass (a huck) and play zone (zee). So I took that as my handle and found some strange amusement in having everything think I was a guy named Huck from New Zealand.
…should say ‘took that as my handle for online stuff’ — I’m too lazy to try to think of and remember a new handle for every site I come across.
We call it “Huck to Z”. Otherwise, we wouldn’t know which order to do it in.
And there should be a disclaimer of “low-level ultimate/bad days in Chicago,” of when you should huck to Z.
While I do think Boosh needs time, just in case….
I will say this…. the playoffs started for this club already. They’re in 6th place….but 4 points out from being in 9th place and teeing up the driver in April. They lose two games and the Canadiens win one and Boston or NY win both…. and they’re in 9th.
We really need points, and we cannot afford to not have whatever we feel is our best chance at any position in. Whichever AHL goalie we think is better should see the most time.
Whichever AHL goalie we think is better should see the most time.
But “most” doesn’t have to be “all”, which is what it’s been like all year for this team. First Emery, then Boucher, then Leighton, then Emery, and once again Leighton.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Mar 8, 2010 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
Leighton just came off a long break, so he’s rested. Also, two really shaky games followed by a decent showing last night might dictate letting him go again against a weaker team to ensure he’s in his stride and confident. Maybe best to work Boosh back in next week in the Atlanta series.
Delaying until the Atlanta series means Leighton will have started 10 games in 17 days, or 11 games in 19 days. That is a lot. Further, if you wait until the second Atlanta game, that means Boucher will not have started a game in exactly three months.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Mar 8, 2010 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
This is weird, right?
Is Holmgren making his coaches ride whichever goaltender he deems to be the best because both Stevens and Lavy have done it. And I thought (perhaps incorrectly) Stevens was fairly even handed at giving Nitty and Biron last year.
"NZFlyerfan"
I definitely find it weird. But again, think about two things: 1) Emery needed to get readjusted to the NHL; and 2) The Flyers had only played 20 games by the time they rolled into Colorado. Emery would start 3 of the next 6 games (including Colorado) Stevens coached. It was pretty clear he was injured at that point.
Then, Laviolette went with Boucher as opposed to Backlund (probably the right call); Leighton instead of the injured Boucher; Emery to see if he was healthy (he was not); and back to Leighton. It’s understandable, but not necessarily correct.
Stevens was a lot more even handed last year.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Mar 8, 2010 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
Oh yeah for sure Emery’s readjustment time and the injuries to him and Boucher have caused both coaches to go with certain goalies for a time, but the lengths seem unreasonable really.
It seems like its either; what we are seeing is what they think is the best strategy, or we don’t know something they do.
"NZFlyerfan"
Don’t forget about mental exhaustion.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Mar 8, 2010 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
haha, something like that.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Mar 8, 2010 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
See now that is subjective too. You know that guy is flying HIGH right now. He’s in a very good place right now, mentally speaking.
But then that contradicts you saying he needs to get back in because he just had “two shaky starts” and a “decent” showing. If he’s flying high right now, he can afford to take a day off to either a) allow Boucher to be at the same level; or b) maintain that level against fears of exhaustion.
Either way, he can’t be both “flying high” and in need of confidence to recover from “shaky” starts.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Mar 8, 2010 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
I meant that he has to be in that good place mentally because he knows he is the guy for the rest of this season – something he’s never had in his NHL career. But just getting into game shape physically, getting the feel (with some good wins) is what I was referring to early. Same but different, eh?
I see what you’re saying. I was speaking purely on the mental aspect, but I know what you mean. However, maybe it isn’t a good thing that he’s comfortable. Guess we’ll find out.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Mar 8, 2010 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
Do you think there may still be pressure for the number 1 job between he and Boosh? Is it a forgone conclusion that he has it locked up? Is that what you mean by comfortable?
I’m saying maybe it’s a bad thing that there is no pressure for the number 1 job. I’m pretty sure it is a foregone conclusion that he has it locked up, but I don’t think he should. Not yet anyway.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Mar 8, 2010 7:20 PM EST up reply actions
There needs to be pressure for the number one job. This is what hurt Boucher 10 years ago, he fought and scraped to give himself opportunities his first year, and then the following year they handed him the starting job on a silver platter and he crumbled under the expectations. We should not let that happen to Leighton, and part of me fears that Leights is feeling the pressure now that he knows he’s the guy down the stretch after not getting a goalie at the deadline.
by DragonGirl0583 on Mar 8, 2010 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
if what some said in another post about Emery is true it’s hard to say if the load of the NHL caused that that type of bone necrosis…..it wouldn’t have helped that’s for sure and it’s a bitch to diagnose so he could have been in tbe early stages of the disease at the begining of the season. Either way, despite Stevens and Laviolette overplaying him, I seriously doubt it would have caused something this severe without something more dramatic earlier in the season occuring first that would prompted exploratory endoscopy of the hip socket.
that does mean that i think goalies don’t need rest…that’s another Pointdexter dissertation all together
MUDDA FUKA
that does mean that i think goalies don’t need rest
should be
that doesn’t mean that i think goalies don’t need rest
Oh, I agree. Bone necrosis is unlikely to have resulted from playing 16 of the first 17 games (over the course of 6 weeks). But it’s still an interesting pattern, and one that – on its face – looks bad.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Mar 8, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
on its face people will say that’s the result of Philly “goon” hockey. They’d be oversimplifly of course but their gonna lump it all into one GOON catergory. I wouldn’t be suprised if the Canadiens Nazi accuser isn’t busy improperly correlating data as we speak.
MUDDA FUKA part DEUX
I wouldn’t be suprised if the Canadiens Nazi accuser isn’t busy improperly correlating data as we speak.
should be
I wouldn’t be suprised if the Canadiens Nazi accuser is busy improperly correlating data as we speak.
alright but boucher is garbage, i dont care if he hasn’t seen playing time in x amount of games or whatever dude sucks this season, however starting him Tuesday against the 14th place islanders might not be a bad idea, despite them being in 14th place we still need the points to separate us from the habs and the bruins, in my opinion it is a coin toss
This is exactly what I’ve been saying for a while now that it sounds like I wrote this blog. Leighton needs to rest, and with the schedule the way it is we have a few back to back games this month and the last thing you want to have is a questionable starter getting overworked right before a playoff run. I don’t see what’s so hard to understand about this so it really baffles me about why Boosh doesn’t get more starts. I see the point in going with the hot hand and sticking with what works, but goalies get burnt out when they’re overplayed. Just look at Brodeur in the Olympics. I’m surprised he lasted as long as he did because NJ was playing him to death. As a Flyers fan I hope they continue playing him so he’s not on his top game come playoff time, but as for Leighton- the guy is human. We need to start Boosh more, especially with this horrendous schedule, or it’s another first round exit for sure. I’d love to see Boosh every 4th game and definitely one of the two on back to back nights. He’s not bad, just rusty as you pointed out, so I don’t see why they’re keeping him on the bench unless they’re afraid we’ll lose another goalie if we play with two. If that’s what they’re thinking then we have just as much chance of losing another goalie by overworking one of our two. Just my .02 worth. Cheers :)
And he won't be starting Tuesday:
Per the Flyers blog:
“Brian Boucher will start a game before the end of the season. It won’t be tomorrow night against the Islanders, as Michael Leighton will be going once again, but Boucher is doing his best to prepare for when that time comes.”
I think the first sentence was especially clever. And not at all insulting.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SanFilippo’s theory that Boosh and Lavvy aren’t getting along is sounding more and more plausible every day…
by DragonGirl0583 on Mar 8, 2010 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I agree.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Mar 9, 2010 9:20 AM EST up reply actions
Long time coming
Yeah, I knew this was coming. What I really want to know is why Boucher wasn’t given playing time in the AHL this year when the Flyers were “carrying three goalies”. When Emery and Leighton were both healthy, he should have gotten some conditioning in, and I think that mistake (not getting said conditioning) is now biting them in the a$$.
Waivers, I think
I certainly wouldn’t want to risk someone snagging Boosh for half price.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
Well, you’re right to say waivers, but someone could only snag him at half-price on re-entry waivers.
I’m interested to know if he could be sent down for a “conditioning assignment” if he wasn’t injured.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Mar 8, 2010 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
While it isn’t written word for word into the conditioning assignment paragraph, I don’t think you can get away with it. The whole section of language about how the commissioner can investigate the circumstances of the conditioning loan by any means necessary and can take whatever disciplinary action against the team he deems appropriate implies that a team better have a darn good reason for using a conditioning loan to evade the regular waiver process.
by DragonGirl0583 on Mar 8, 2010 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
I thought it was his ring finger? Not like it matters. I don’t know of any examples of a healthy player being allowed to evade waivers for a conditioning loan just because the team has decided not to play him. If someone can provide one I’m willing to be wrong, but it seems like a red flag to me.
by DragonGirl0583 on Mar 8, 2010 11:36 PM EST up reply actions
I guess...
Yeah, I hear the waiver thing, and it could get dicey if you were to say something like he hurt his groin and then sent him down and someone actually looked into it. And the hurt finger wouldn’t have cut I’m thinking. Be interesting to look into, see if anything like that has been tried, and what the outcome was.
by JerseyDriver on Mar 9, 2010 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
OK, fine
I got tired of waiting for a real stat person to figure it out for us. This is undoubtedly primitive and feeble, but I did my best.
I took every goalie who’s started at least 20 games this year and sorted by rest. It includes 159 games played on back-to-backs, 1552 games played on more rest.
There’s obviously a little room for skew — maybe only the best or hottest or fittest goaltenders are allowed to go on back to back days, but maybe the team in front of the goaltender is tired too and makes him look worse. Anyway, here’s what I came up with:
On back-to-backs, they average allowing 2.50 goals per 60 minutes, saving 91.8% of shots.
With rest, they average allowing 2.61 goals per 60 minutes, saving 91.2% of shots.
Looks like a wash to me. Next up is looking at whether goalies who get too many starts fade down the stretch, or at whether backups who don’t get enough work struggle when they’re finally put in. But I’m done for now.
Actually...
On back-to-backs, they face an average of 28.6 shots per game.
With rest, they face an average of 28.3 shots per game.
So I guess that suggests that there isn’t any real drop-off in how the team plays in front of the goalie on a back-to-back.
And some more stats...
Apparently everyone else is in bed, but I’m still plugging away at this.
I took stats from the last two years. In one camp are the goalies with 70 or more starts. In the second bin are the guys with 60-65 starts (enough that they’re a clear #1, but low enough that they clearly got more rest than the first group).
The 70+ start guys:
In their last 10 games, they averaged allowing 2.42 goals per game, saving 91.1% of shots.
In the rest of their games, they averaged allowing 2.47 goals per game, saving 91.1% of shots.
The 60-65 start guys:
In their last 10 games, they averaged allowing 2.86 goals per game, saving 90.1% of shots.
In the rest of their games, they averaged allowing 2.54 goals per game, saving 91.2% of shots.
Doesn’t look to me like rest is a big factor either.
I remember Jonathan Willis doing something very similar to this in regards to Giguere and Kiprusoff, but that’s all I remember.
However, I’d be curious to look at guys who are starting more games than they’ve ever started before. I’m assuming a lot of the guys in your sample were veterans, such as Broduer, Turco, Luongo, Osgood, etc.
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Mar 9, 2010 9:23 AM EST up reply actions
HuckNZ
Doesn’t look to me like rest is a big factor either.
Your essentially commiting a Mcnamara Fallacy (i’m not busting your balls…obviously things are informal here and your working out an idea) but as a follower of advanced baseball metrics I’ve encounter this even from the authors of the Book (baseball sabermetrics bible, ssh don’t say anything lest I be burned at the stake). In this fallacy, " the thinker(s) forget the degree of abstraction involved in thought and draw unwarranted conclusions about concrete actuality." In this case the abstraction is statistics, and as branch of mathematics is primarily a decuditive science that provides logical form for quantifiable, empirical data to be related. The only truth this logical form provides is the validity of the argument not the truth of the premises (empirically gathered data). It’s like when I do built-in bookcases the whole point of having a shop other than production speed is that I can build a perfectly square box for a imperfect space in someone’s house. So any issues I have when I install the cases i know it is the space, i.e hump in the floor, out of square wall which I can can remedy or compensate for.
As it stands there’s a wealth of empiricaly gathered and tested knowledge about physiology involved athletics so much so sports science/medicine is it’s own discipline. The princples they outline are tested and peer reviewed and are used as guidlines by which a trainer or coach can design a program that best fits their athletes needs vs. a team or competition scheledule. Ideally these principles should be used in every sport by every coach and team, but they are not esp. baseball, the worst offender by far. But the NHL with these 20-23 yr old kids playing at levels usually considered peak ages from what iI’ve heard is or was 26-28, tells me the NHL is evolving. If this holds true I will gladly stick it to my those breathen baseball junkies for whom sabermetrics (which I love) has only elevated their notion of baseball as “the thinking man’s game” to a new level of snobbery and prospect rosterbation …you know for those 5 yr stints in the minor leagues where these
Anyway HuckNZ, I am not saying that you premises here are wrong just not substianted enough considering they should be measured against the principles put forth by an accepted field of study. Could be pretty interesting. If things are contradicted something else is going on, but that has to be tested. Injuries, age, recovery rates are inherently complex to just measure with past performance. By the way, so I am not cast out the sports blazer with suede elbow patches and hush puppy shoes ivy tower of baseball sabermetrics I’ll say this. In The Book there is alot a great work done on analyzing performances, quantifying skill from luck, how a metric can be translated into a Win value and then correlated with a player’s monetary value. This is fine. It’s working within parameters set by the game: the empirically gathered data refers directly to performance whose value is defined the said parameters. The other stuff they just need to measure against other knowledge from other sciences. Or just leave it alone.
The Islanders
You guys could start an injured Emery and you’d still beat us. That streak is insane.
Please NBC, Fire Milbury, Hire Roenick Full time!!!
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| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Jersey
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82 | 48 | 27 | 7 | 103 |
|
Pittsburgh
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82 | 47 | 28 | 7 | 101 |
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Philadelphia
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New York Rangers
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New York Islanders
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82 | 34 | 37 | 11 | 79 |
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Colorado
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