Tuesday Morning Fly By: Boucher v. Devils and Versus Picks Sid
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 13, 2010 9:39 AM EDT
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PrintToday's open discussion thread, complete with your daily dose of Philadelphia Flyers news and notes...
- In case you missed the Bruins score three shorthanded goals on one penalty kill, here it is: [Behind the Net]
- Heading into the playoffs, the Flyers have added seven players to their roster: [BSH] [Frequent Flyers]
- A series of "History Will Be Made" videos starring the Flyers. [The700level]
- Clearly, there will be a lot of stories about Brian Boucher facing the Devils 10 years later. Here's one: [CSNPhilly]
- Here's a second, by Seravalli: [Daily News]
- Here's a third, by Parent: [DelcoTimes]
- And here's a fourth, by Hoffman: [Daily News]
- Breaking down the Eastern Conference goalie combinations: [From the Rink]
- Is there any way to predict who will be a "hot" playoff goalie? Insert Geoff loves Boucher pun. [Behind the Net]
- Wondering why the Flyers/Devils won't be on Versus? Two words: Sidney. Crosby. [Puck Daddy]
- Joacim Eriksson might not be heading up to the SEL: [euroflyers], but I think it's posturing. Besides, his coach obviously wants him to stay: [euroflyers]
- Could Mika Pyorala return to Europe next year? [euroflyers]
- Lastly, a look at playoff-bound former Flyers. Yeah, even Kings fans hate Randy Jones. [FGSB]
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Yeah, even Kings fans hate Randy Jones.
Because that person is an idiot.
Randy finished with a GVT of 5.2, in just 48 games. That was the second highest GVT/game rate on their blue line, behind only Doughty.
He did so against competition that was slightly below average (-.052) but with, among defensemen, the 20th worst (and worst on his team by far) QualTeam at -.131.
This was that one person’s uneducated criticism:
when he screws up… he screws up royally and everyone in the building notices.
No shit, because when you are the best player on the ice and you make a mistake, there’s no one there to bail you out. (eg: Chris Pronger Friday night at MSG.)
Randy Jones, in just 48 games, had what would be the 4th highest GVT amongst Flyers dmen.
GFON/60: 2.38 (5th Best)
GAON/60: 2.64 (6th Best)
SFON/60: 25.6 (5th Best)
SAON/60: 26.4 (6th Best)
CorsiRel: -7.4 (7th Best/Worst on Team)
CorsiQoC: -1.041 (7th Best)
CorsiQoT: 1.301 (4th Best)
ZoneStart: 54.4 (3rd Highest)
GVT through 25 games: 4.1
GVT 21 games since then: 1.1
DGVT: 2.0 (6th Best)
DGVT/G: .042
Braydon Coburn’s DGVT/G: .049
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 13, 2010 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
DGVT/G: .042
was 3rd best on his team. His OGVT (3.3) overall was also 3rd best, and 2nd best OGVT/G (.069).
He was the fourth best Dman in LA, ahead of Rob Scuderi (he of the $3.3m cap hit).
He would’ve been the Flyers 4th best dman and stablized the 3rd pairing which saw Ryan Parent stuck with the 3rd worst QualTeam in all of the NHL due him being forced to play 58% of the time with Krajicek, Bartulis, Syvret, or Tollefson.
He was the fourth best Dman in LA, ahead of Rob Scuderi (he of the $3.3m cap hit).
You mean Rob Scuderi’s .078 DGVT/G? Yeah, Jones was better at .042 DGVT/G. Except he wasn’t. And Scuderi was tied for first on the team with a 47.9 offensive zone start. Despite starting in his own end A LOT more than Jones, Scuderi – the defensive defenseman – was still able to control play to the tune of -3.2 CorsiRel. And he did this while facing the opponents best – a team highest 1.078 CorsiQoC (that’s nearly the polar opposite of Jones’ -1.041) with about 33% better teammates.
In case you didn’t follow that, Scuderi was BETTER defensively – nearly twice as good, actually; got stuck starting in his own end A LOT more than Jones, yet still managed to control the play more than Jones. And did it against the toughest competition of anybody on the Kings. And he still only gave up 1.91 GAON/60, nearly .75 goals better than Jones. So, Jones started in the offensive zone, and went backwards. Scuderi started in the defensive zone, and went forwards.
Except for the fact that he was sheltered in the offensive zone (54.4% zone start, third highest on the team) and still gave up the second most shots against while generating the third fewest shots for.
This placed him last on his team in Corsi, since he was constantly starting in the offensive zone, generating little shots, but getting run back in his own zone and watching the other team control the play. This then resulted in him allowing the second most goals against on his team.
His “offensive prowess” didn’t translate to any even-strength goals though, since he still couldn’t overcome his defensive deficiencies, allowing more goals than he scored. Maybe it’s because he couldn’t get out of his end, even when he started in the offensive zone.
But no, that one stat is fantastic, since it proves that he rode a 25 game hot-stretch to cover up his atrocious second half.
Your ridiculous notion that Jones is better than Scuderi is the epitome of you hiding behind one stat (which shows Jones got hot for half the year – kinda like Michael Leighton), ignoring all the others, and showing your own petty biases showing through. A lot like what you railed against yesterday. You, my friend, are a hypocrite.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 13, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
No, actually I was referring to the fact that Jones’ GVT was .6 HIGHER than Scuderi in 25 fewer games.
And the fact that Scuderi had the second highest QualTeam of anyone on the Kings’ roster. That probably helped him quite a bit, while Jones had one of the worst QualTeams in the entire league.
But thats cool, continue to live in your delusional world.
haha, keep saying Randy Jones is better than Rob Scuderi. That statement alone tells me you either don’t know jack shit about hockey, or you’re so biased that you’re willing to say Randy Jones’ offensive GVT outweighs Rob Scuderi’s defensive trouncing.
If you want your defensemen to not play defense, get outscored at 5-on-5, and get outshot while being sheltered in the offensive zone, take Randy Jones. If you want your defensemen to play defense, shut down opponent’s top lines, and do all of this while beginning their shifts in the defensive zone, take Rob Scuderi.
Clearly, you think Randy Jones’ 2.64 GAON/60 would have stabilized the Flyers’ D corps, and yet that would rank him below Pronger, Carle, Krajicek, Timonen, Coburn, and Danny Syvret. Yes, Danny Syvret.
But it doesn’t matter how sheltered Jones is, or how many goals he gives up, or the fact that he lets the other team’s worst players outshoot him, all that matters is that Jones a) Had a good 25 game stretch; and b) had an OGVT nearly equal to Scott Hartnell’s.
Keep hanging your completely biased hat on Jones’ OGVT. You’ll continue to look dumber than Paul Holmgren thinking Jones would clear re-entry waivers.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 13, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
It is awesome how you continue to totally ignore the fact that Jones played with basically the worst teammates possible.
I know it hurts that you argue with me for no reason at all, and now that the season is over I’ve been proved correct on basically all of it, but try to act like a man instead of a child and just admit it, rather than hiding behind poor statistical analysis.
Fourth best CorsiQoT out of 7 Kings with at least 40 games played.
And your argument falls apart right there.
“poor statistical analysis” = Randy Jones being superior to Rob Scuderi.
“poor statistical analysis” = Randy Jones had bad teammates!
A list of players with worse teammates and better GAON/60:
Sheldon Brookbank
Cam Barker
Carl Gunnarsson
Matt Walker
Erik Johnson
Craig Rivet
Marc-Andre Bergeron
Brett Lebda
I’d go on, but I have no reason to. You’re just wrong and you criticize because you have no other defense. Child, please.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 13, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
GA/60 is a statistic that relies heavily on TEAMMATES. And Randy Jones had some of the worst teammates in of any dman in the league.
You don’t understand statistics, no matter how many times I try to explain to you. GVT is a metric to judge all around performance by a player based on goals scored.
But instead, you want to try to prove your wrong argument by nitpicking and acting like GAON, which is just a fraction of GVT’s calculation, somehow outways the larger stat.
Its statistically dishonest.
Statistically dishonest?
You said Randy Jones is better than Rob Scuderi. And you determined this by ignoring:
Zone start, quality of competition, corsi rating, corsi qualcomp, corsi qualteam, goals for while on the ice, goals against while on the ice, shots for while on the ice, and shots against while on the ice.
And you ignored all of that to determine that Randy Jones – due to his incredibly inflated OGVT – is a fantastic player.
Saying I don’t understand statistics is just simply laughable. First, you’re using a 48 game sample-size to prove Jones is better than Scuderi. That’s statistically dishonest. Second, you’re completely ignoring the fact that Jones had a 4.1 GVT through 25 games, but only 1.1 through his next 21. That SCREAMS sample-size aberration.
But you ignore ALL of that because you’re preconceived notion is that Randy Jones is awesome. That’s dishonest, both statistically and intellectually.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 13, 2010 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
-except I was wrong about the Flyers not making the playoffs, and even though I hedged my bets by citing disclaimer after disclaimer on why they would possibly make the playoffs, I was for the most part, wrong about that.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Apr 13, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
They won about as many games as I predicted. And were about as shitty as I predicted.
They made the playoffs as a result of being in the worst conference in modern history of the league.
Not to nitpick, but you actually predicted that this team would “crash worse than the 2006-07 [edition]” back when Ray Emery first got injured. This technically meant that they would have finished with fewer than 56 points, instead of the 88 they finished with.
They made the playoffs as a result of being in the worst conference in modern history of the league.
I’ll agree with you that the Flyers’ season has been disappointing, but there have been worse conferences in the modern history of the league. How about 1993-94, the first year the NHL did conference-based playoffs in the modern era? The Capitals made the playoffs with 88 points in an 84-game season? The Islanders also made the playoffs with 84 points that year. Out West, the Blackhawks made the playoffs with 87 points, and the Sharks were in with 82.
Let’s go into the first full season after Bettman Lockout One, 1995-96 where the Lightning also got in with 88 points, but so did the Leafs, Blues, Jets, Canucks, and Flames who all had 78-80 points. And so it continued through the rest of the 1990s. Hell, even 2002-03 saw the Islanders get in with 83 points, and the Bruins with 87.
Unless, of course, by “modern history of the league” you meant “2005-present…”
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
don’t confuse mario with the facts. He said they wouldn’t make the playoffs, then when it looked like they might finish as high as 5th, he said, that if the other GM’s in the east didn’t have their head in their ass, the Flyers wouldn’t have made it. Now he’s just clinging to the fact that the Eastern conference sucks. Typical lawyering from him.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Apr 14, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
you actually predicted that this team would "crash worse than the 2006-07 [edition]" back when Ray Emery first got injured
And when that happened, the Flyers proceeded to earn 5 points in their next 9 games, a pace of 45 pts over 82, which is worse than the 2006-07 season.
but there have been worse conferences in the modern history of the league. How about 1993-94
There were no shootouts season, which puts it in a different era from the present. Hell, there weren’t even 3 point games. And, that season in the East 7th had 88 points without the benefit of 3 point games, while 8th had 84. This year’s 8th seed picked up 10 bettman points, which means in 1993-94, they would’ve only had 78 points. So that season, though a different era, was still more competitive.
The 3-point game wasn’t introduced until the 1999-2000 season. That would be the beginning of this current era.
As for 2002-03 Eastern Conference, an argument could be made. Here’s how they match up
2003 Standings
Ottawa – 113
Devils – 108
Flyers – 107
Toronto – 98
Tampa – 93
Washington – 92
Boston – 87
Isles – 83
-——
Rangers – 78
Montreal – 77
Atlanta – 74
Buffalo – 72
Florida – 70
Pittsburgh – 65
Carolina – 61
Compared to this season
Washington – 121
Jersey – 103
Pittsburfg – 101
Buffalo – 100
Ottawa – 94
Boston – 91
Philly – 88
Montreal – 88
-—
Rangers – 88
Atlanta – 83
Carolina – 80
Tampa – 80
Isles – 79
Florida – 77
Toronto – 74
In 2003, there were four tiers of teams: you had a handful of favorites (Flyers, Ottawa, Jersey) who were all relatively equal. Then a tier of good teams (Toronto, Tampa, Washington), then 7 mediocre teams, and finally two terrible teams (Pittsburgh and Carolina).
This season, you’ve got one great team (washington), a tier of 3 good teams, then a few more okay teams, 9 mediocre teams and no terrible teams. 2003 had 6 teams within 13 points of the final playoff spot. This year 9 teams were within 14 points of that spot, and no one was worse.
To me, 2003 was a better conference because they were heavier at the top and the bottom, with less mediocrity in the middle. I’ll take the quality of 2003 over the quantity of 2010
To me, 2003 was a better conference because they were heavier at the top and the bottom, with less mediocrity in the middle. I’ll take the quality of 2003 over the quantity of 2010
Certainly understandable. By the same token, if you had said that at the beginning I wouldn’t have responded to your “worst conference” remark. I understand and – to an extent – agree with your opinion. Maybe this is a personal issue of mine, but I always have a problem with overstatements which are presented as indisputable fact, like that the Eastern Conference this year was the worst in the modern history of the game.
And you’re certainly not the only one who says stuff like this. A couple of years ago, me and a friend of mine (also given to overstatement) were discussing the singer/songwriter Jim White. My friend said, “He’s a perfect example of why the world doesn’t need Tom Waits or Nick Cave.” I was taken aback by his response, and he asked me why. I said, “It’s one thing to say that you’re not a fan of Tom Waits and Nick Cave. However, to say that ‘The world doesn’t need them’ is quite another matter.”
Much like many matters here, this discussion boils down to viewpoints. There’s validity to your and my arguments alike, I think. Just for the hell of it, take a look at the first year of Bettman points.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
I don’t disagree with anything you said.
However, in my defense, let me just say: there’s 10 seasons with Bettman points, so 20 conferences, subtract the East this season since its the basis for the comparison and we’ve got 19 possibilities.
I don’t think its a terrible overstatement to say its the worst conference of the group when, indisputably, it was worse than 18/19, and there’s a only conceivable argument to be made for that last one.
Also, I think a subjective evaluation like “worst conference” inherently includes any disclaimer of “in my opinion”.
when it was brought up several times, you repeatedly ignored the fact that hartnell played with basically the best offensive players on this team in carter and briere yet his numbers were only marginally better than jvr’s, who played with asham and powe and had less ice time.
Oh, and by the way, Jones DEMOLISHED your little metric of (JVR+Pyorala+Syvret) vs. (Jones) in judging that decision. Absolutely no doubt Jones had more value per game this season.
AND, the Flyers have about a $1m in cap space beyond what they would’ve needed to keep Randy Jones on the roster AND JVR on the roster.
In retrospect, there is no doubt that sending Randy Jones to the AHL was the single dumbest decision made by an NHL GM this season.
Hyperbole much? Daryl Sutter traded FOR Ales Kotalik with that contract.
by Kozlowski22 on Apr 13, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
That was because he had to get rid of Olli Jokinen in order to fit his team under the cap. They finished the year with less than $400k in cap space.
He sent $5.7m to New York and took back $5.2m in contracts.
I don’t think he was making a counter-argument, just wondering about your general philosophy towards the team. It can’t be much fun being critical this time of year.
Thanks
for pointing out the obvious (to everyone but MarioD).
I like to be critical as well but the non-stop complaining about this team and downright bias against certain players just puts an image of someone sitting in their parent’s basement watching games and hating the world.
If the dog tells you to go out and shoot random women around NYC, please don’t listen.
Let’s take this notion and take it further:
“Absolutely no doubt Michael Leighton had more value per game [than Chris Pronger] this season.”
GVT/G: .380
Chris Pronger’s: .226
Wait, is there something wrong with that logic? How about this:
“Absolutely no doubt James van Riemsdyk had more value per game than Scott Hartnell this season.”
JVR GVT: 5.4
Harts GVT: 5.1
JVR GVT/G: .069
Harts GVT/G: .063
So if there is “absolutely no doubt Jones had more value per game this season”, there must also be “absolutely no doubt” that Leighton had more value (MVP?) per game than Chris Pronger this season, just like JVR had “absolutely no doubt” more value per game than Scott Hartnell.
Fine. I’ll say Randy Jones is better than JVR, Pyorala, and Syvret if you say Michael Leighton was this team’s MVP and JVR is better than Scott Hartnell. Deal?
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 13, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
haha, Leighton can win the Hart if Boucher wins the Vezina.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 13, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you fucking kidding.
Can you keep the context of even ONE SINGLE STATISTICAL ARGUMENT? Please.
I didn’t compare their fucking GVT/G.
I compared their total GVTs, despite the fact the Jones played half as many games. I’ll try to use tiny words for you:
Jones GVT = 5.2 in 48 games
JVR+Syvret+Pyorala+Krajicek (in only his 27 games as a Flyer) GVT = 5.2 in 159 games.
They had THE SAME TOTAL GVT SCORES.
THAT’S why its unequivocal that Jones was more valuable. It has nothing to do with GVT/G, in which Jones has a rate 3x higher.
Are you fucking kidding me?
I didn’t compare their fucking GVT/G.
What do you call this then:
Absolutely no doubt Jones had more value per game this season.
Here, I’ll bold it for you:
Absolutely no doubt Jones had more value per game this season.
Still not getting it? How about I define things for you:
GVT/G means “Goals Versus Threshold PER GAME”
Do you see the similarity there? You guessed it! “Per Game”
Oh, and before I forget: I thought that was the “intellectually dishonest” comparison? But now that you’re using it, I’m sure it’s not at all intellectually dishonest.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 13, 2010 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
I call that point out that, as opposed to comparing segments of their season, as you’ve been doing, compare them given a typical game’s performance.
Way to ignore the point, though, that Jones is undeniably more value than that entire motley crew of replacements you championed.
You can pretend all you want, but the numbers are unquestionable.
Jones GVT = 5.2
JVR+Syvret+Pyorala+Krajicek (in only his 27 games as a Flyer) GVT = 5.2
There’s nothing statistically relevant that can disprove the simple fact that Jones was more valuable than all of those players.
haha, you’re so incredibly ridiculous.
Jones’ first 25 games: 4.1 GVT, 0.164 GVT/G
Jones’ next 21 games: 1.1 GVT, 0.052 GVT/G
What exactly is a “typical game’s performance” for Jones when half the time he’s better than Kimmo Timonen (0.127 GVT/G this year) and the other half, he’s worse than Danny Syvret (0.057 GVT/G)?
Maybe that’s because it’s a SMALL SAMPLE SIZE.
But no, seriously. Using 48 games to prove that Jones is better than Rob Scuderi – and failing – makes you look REALLY petty, biased, and ignorant. Keep going, please.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 14, 2010 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Half the season is now a small sample size? Wow, that is an absurd argument.
So lets get this straight…
Randy Jones (GVT 5.2) in half a season, contributed more to his team than Rob Scuderi (GVT 4.6) did in a full season, and pointing this out makes me look biased?
You are in desperate need of a mirror.
Jones: Half the time he’s better than Timonen, half the time he’s worse than Syvret.
You conclude, based on that, he’s better than Rob Scuderi.
And I conclude my argument because if you can’t see why that’s absolutely ridiculous, you’re not worth energy wasted typing anything further.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 15, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I know i’m late to the party (sorry was out of town), but Lundqvist was pretty awesome on Sunday. Nice rally by the Flyers though.
7th place, well it isn’t 4-6th, but I didn’t hedge my bets, I simply said they would finish 4-6th.
Should be a very entertaining playoff series.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Apr 13, 2010 11:41 AM EDT reply actions
Wondering why the Flyers/Devils won’t be on Versus? Two words: Sidney. Crosby.
The two worst words in the English Language.
Oh, This is bound to be good
You can't, but you thought that You could
I wonder what, if anything the NHL has to do with scheduling on Versus. I would think maybe nothing at all but I am curious. As much as the NHL loves Crosby, they can not believe that Sens/Pens will get better ratings than Flyers/Devils. I bet even Caps/Habs will get better ratings.
Well, Versus gets blacked out locally. I’m assuming they think Crosby>Flyers nationally, since neither the Devs or Sens will draw much outside their areas. And they’re probably right about that. It’s a business decision; don’t think for a moment the NHL has more say than the company that owns the Flyers.
As far as the Flyers being scheduled the same nights as the Pens, that has to do with arena availability. There is no larger conspiracy, Crosby is the safer play. The only gripe I have is that, most times, they show at least one of the first four games from the lesser series, or at least have the schedule line up less exactly. But I wasn’t complaining when every Flyers playoff game the past two seasons was available for me in Chicago, so I won’t complain now. There’s a bar with Center Ice right down the street.
Yep, that’s all it comes down to. Who draws nationally, not the local markets. Crosby clearly will draw more than the Devils any day of the week.
Broad Street Hockey - SBN's Philadelphia Flyers blog. Got goaltending? Searching since 1987.
by Travis Hughes on Apr 13, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
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