ECQF Game Four: Time on Ice Numbers
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 21, 2010 6:33 PM EDT
in Morning Fly By
Email
PrintFor Game Three, we saw three players who had outstanding games. We also mentioned that there isn't a complete correlation between shots fired and success. Specifically, the Flyers played a pretty dominating Game Three, but the shots were fairly even.
Game Four showed another important thing to remember regarding Corsi and Fenwick: teams who are trailing tend to get a lot of shots off. For a look at how the numbers change based upon the score, check out this post from Behind the Net.
That should give you enough context to give you these numbers: The Flyers were outshot 21-17 at even-strength; 34-24 in Fenwick; and 52-34 in Corsi.
Jump to see how everybody did.
Again, we'll start with the zone start numbers. Amazingly, the team did not ice the puck last night. As such, the team started in the offensive zone 13 times and the defensive zone 11 times.
- No Flyer began a shift in the defensive zone more than 5 times.
- No Flyer began a shift in the offensive zone more than 6 times.
- Neither James van Riemsdyk nor Claude Giroux had a single defensive zone start.
- Simon Gagne only had 1 offensive zone start.
- Chris Pronger was out for the most non-neutral zone faceoffs (again) with 11 of the 24.
Really, a pretty boring zone-start summary. Everything was pretty even, not much to praise or complain about. But if I missed anything, feel free to point it out.
The Corsi and Fenwick numbers are a lot more interesting, if only because they show that a team with the lead gives up more shots.
| Player | Goals | Saved Shots | Missed Shots | Fenwick | Blocked Shots | Corsi | ||||
| Krajicek | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 7 | 7 | -6 |
| Coburn | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 1 | 2 | -2 |
| Betts | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 1 | -2 |
| Gagne | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 1 | 4 | -8 |
| Carcillo | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 1 | 7 | -10 |
| Laperriere | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 1 | 1 | -4 |
| Carter | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| Richards | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 2 | 7 | -12 |
| Hartnell | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Pronger | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | 9 | -9 |
| van Riemsdyk | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 3 | 5 | -10 |
| Carle | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 4 | 6 | -12 |
| Giroux | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 2 | 7 | -15 |
| Boucher | 2 | 0 | 15 | 21 | 7 | 13 | -10 | 10 | 18 | -18 |
| Powe | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Timonen | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Asham | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 6 | -7 |
| Briere | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Parent | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 4 | 8 | -9 |
So, a refresher: The Flyers were outshot 21-17 at even-strength; 34-24 in Fenwick; and 52-34 in Corsi. Those large disparities lead to some pretty obvious outliers above.
Shots on Goal
With the team being outshot by four, only Coburn, Carcillo, Carter, Hartnell, Timonen, and Briere were in the positives. The biggest positive outliers were Kimmo Timonen (+6) and Jeff Carter (+6). That's pretty good work, since both were on the ice for 10 of the Flyers 21 shots on goal. And now Carter is on crutches...
On the other side, plenty of players finished in the negatives. The biggest outliers there were Lukas Krajicek (-6), Ryan Parent (-5), Arron Asham (-5), and Matt Carle (-5). This would normally show that the third-pairing got abused again - which might or might not be true - but teams who are trailing outshoot their opponents. Not really sure what to conclude from this.
Fenwick (SOG + Missed Shots)
The Devils certainly do miss the net a lot. Last night, the Devils missed the net 13 times compared to the Flyers' 7. With the team having a minus-10 Fenwick, the outliers once again are easy to pick out. The only players to finish in the positive in this category were Carter (+9), Hartnell (+5), Timonen (+4), and Briere (+4). Coburn was a minus-1, or else the entire second-line would have been in the positive. Based on the Head-to-Head numbers, it appears as if the main matchup there was against Brian Rolston and Travis Zajac. That line did a good job shutting those two down.
Those at the other end of the spectrum were Giroux (-10), Carle (-10), van Riemsdyk (-8), and Mike Richards (-7). Interesting collection there, but two third-line forwards, one first-line winger, and one first-pairing defenseman. Both Carle and Richards were victim to 8 missed Devils shots, which again makes me wonder how the Devils continue to miss the net.
Corsi (Fenwick + Blocked Shots)
Again, the Flyers found themselves in the negative here, finishing the game a minus-18 in Corsi. With the Devils firing so many pucks toward the net, could anybody be a positive?? Yes, yes they can. Jeff Carter, Scott Hartnell, Darroll Powe, Kimmo Timonen, and Danny Briere all finished above even. Truly remarkable. At this point, despite being unable to conclude anything from the shots on goal category, I think it's safe to say the second line had a damn good game. And they won't be able to build off of it.
Continuing the theme, the bad news revolved around Claude Giroux (-18), Matt Carle (-12), Mike Richards (-12), James van Riemsdyk (-10), and Dan Carcillo (-10). At this point, I'm curious who these guys went up against. That only partially makes me feel better:
- Giroux - Clarkson, Niedermayer, Letourneau-Leblond;
- Carle - Elias, Kovalchuk, Parise;
- Richards - Zubrus, Elias, Parise;
- van Riemsdyk - Neidermayer, Clarkson, Letourneau-Leblond;
- Carcillo - Zubrus, Elias, Parise
Carle, Richards, and Carcillo are given a Get Out of Jail Free card for a) their opposition; b) their Game 3 performance; and c) the likelihood that Elias, Kovy, and Parise were out at the end of the game throwing rubber at Boucher. Giroux and JVR are a little more troubling since they got outshot by scrubs. Yeah, I'm insulting the Devils' third line. Still, I don't think this is too big of a deal. The trailing team gets more shots off and the Flyers' third line played fine in Game 3. They weren't good in Game 4, and they certainly can improve in Game 5, but Giroux getting outshot 9-1 is something I don't foresee happening again.
Conclusion
It's interesting to look at the Corsi and Fenwick numbers four games in a row. It's quite possible this is the first time I've ever done it, and there's some pretty big variance on a game-by-game basis. But it gives you an idea of how the coaching matchups (line vs. line) played out on the ice. Last night, the Flyers best line was Hartnell-Carter-Briere. The worst line was JVR-Giroux-Asham, with Gagne-Richards-Carcillo not far behind. But again, these "best" and "worst" are based on shots. Not a single Flyer was on the ice for an even-strength goal against.
What I would say is the most worrisome is the third-pairing getting outshot (again). It's not so much that they got outshot as it is that they got outshot at home. By the Devil's fourth-line. Not sure what their problem is, but if they can't get out of their own end with a favorable matchup, I worry about the road matchups. But what else is new?
Lastly, when's the last time Matt Carle and Claude Giroux were this badly outshot? Not sure, but Giroux having three offensive zone starts to zero defensive suggest he had a pretty bad game last night; at even-strength of course.
Anybody see anything else/different?
27 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I didn’t see the game, but using Corsi/Fenwick as normal you could assume that the Devils controlled all the play. Only White had a negative for both, while Martin had a ridiculous +19.
I had a look at the Gamecast to see shooting positions. “In” was any shot taken between the two zone FO circles and down to the edge of the goalpost and “out” was a shot from anywhere else.
1st: Devils – 33% “in”, Flyers 42% “in”
2nd: Devils – 50%, Flyers – 42%
3rd: Devils – 10%, Flyers – 10%
I have no idea if that means anything. Only one goal came from my “in” area, all the rest were “out”.
This is only including shots, ie not blocked or missed but ones that hit the net.
In the third when the Devils were behind they were less able to get shots closer to the net, which could have come from the shoot from anywhere mantra, or that the Flyers D kept them further out.
Once again I’m impressed by Lavvy’s ability to get exactly the matchups he wants. Its not as difficult at home but still impressive that you can have Pronger out there for 14min ES almost exclusively against either the Parise or Kovalchuk line.
I’m almost positive that yesterday I found where they had records for shots,missed and blocked per period but I can’t find it today.
New Zealand's 4th best Philadelphia Flyers fan
That’s an interesting find. I’m not sure what the “in” and “out” numbers say either, but the fact that both teams were at 10% in the third is definitely intriguing. The Flyers numbers aren’t surprising there, but the Devils having the same percent is definitely strange.
Also, is it a coincidence that the Devils’ numbers add up to 93% while the Flyers add up to 94%? That just seems odd.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 21, 2010 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, its definitely not locked in as something useful. If I get time I might track it for the last few games and see if there is anything.
Nah, because its just percentages per period, so if you wanted an overall shot position (why I don’t know) you would multiply and not add. I did look at that but its meaningless
New Zealand's 4th best Philadelphia Flyers fan
The problem is that location really isn’t an indicator of shot quality.
A wrap around into the goalies stick is a simple save, while a one timer from the point through three or four players is a very difficult save.
Yeah I’m not sure I’m going to be able to achieve what I have in mind exactly, but shot position might have some kind of correlation with how the game is played.
On defense, you generally want to keep the puck out of that area as shots coming from there will be more dangerous, so by seeing how well the shots are kept to the outside might tell some kind of story. My first step will be coming up with a question to answer and then see how I could go about it.
The shot position tracker from the ESPN website might not be 100% accurate (I’ve certainly seen some where shots are not positioned as they were taken from the ice) but could be a useful tool in answering the hypothetical question.
Who knows though. If I get time to have a look I will, if not I’m sure it won’t be any great loss
New Zealand's 4th best Philadelphia Flyers fan
I’m not sure if just “in” and “out” would do it. I’d be more inclined to think of a 3×3 grid, with the vertical boxes being at 20, 40, and 64 feet, and splitting the rink in thirds horizontally (basically “left out,” “in,” and “right out”), maybe with a “crease” zone as a 10th zone, since those shots are generally played differently. It would be possible to do something similar to NBA shot tracking, where a player could be measured for missed shots, shots on goal, goals, (on defense) blocked shots, et cetera. As far as I know, nobody really tracks where various players shoot and score from, which could be very useful to know – if Player A takes 80% of their shots from the right side between 20 and 40 feet out, but mostly scores when he shoots in the center from 20 to 40 feet out, then you might want to force him outside.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
I was thinking in terms of evaluating a goaltender.
I see what you’re saying, and there definitely is more merit to the correlation between shot position and defense, though the same problems mentioned above abound. (Leaving open a point shot is still more dangerous than forcing a guy wide of the net and having him flip the puck along the red line into the goalie).
Your brain lacks capacity to apply critical thinking to complex data and you have sub-par reading comprehension skills. Also, your math is of a particularly poor quality. It is my intent to make this opinion of you known for your benefit.
…
Sorry, I just wanted to see someone else do that for once. Interesting analysis. I’m glad you take the time to look through that data.
haha, thanks. I really enjoy looking through the data. This game wasn’t as interesting as I hoped.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 21, 2010 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Really? Flyers get smoked in the two most commonly used measures of game control, but still win the game handily. I’m not sure what the game looked like to watch but the numbers tell a different story. At ES of course.
New Zealand's 4th best Philadelphia Flyers fan
Yeah, but like I said in the story, a team that’s trailing gets more shots off since the team with the lead plays back.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 22, 2010 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Two things:
It is nice to watch a playoff game(Bruins/Sabres) that is not stopped every 90 seconds for a penalty.
Ryan Miller is ridiculous.
Can't think of something catchy to say here...I suck.
These numbers are pretty much useless in my opinion with all the PP and PK time and different style the teams play on the powerplay the numbers get skewed. The Devils and are a classical shooting powerplay that just gets the puck back to the point then fires away. The Flyers are more patient overload powerplay that looks for mini two on ones either down low or in the slot. We don’t shoot as much even at 5 on 5 we don’t shoot as much. I don’t know if that is the Kovalchuk factor or that our defense is not giving up much but shots from outside the circles or that the Devils don’t respect Boucher or that we give Brodeur a little too much respect and try to pass the puck in the net all the time. Either way these numbers are worthless in my opinion. A better indication than all is this crap would be the simple statistics, time on attack and scoring chances. That will tell you who controlled the game. I am not sure where I can find those stats. We are giving the Devils shots from the outside and play a passive shot blocking penalty kill this number look really bad for the Flyers yet if you watched that game we completed dominated the Devils.
You can’t find scoring chances or time on attack since the NHL doesn’t keep track of those.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 22, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Here is the best I could come up with. Look at the shots on the Flyers net everything is to the outside and above the dots. The Flyers got many more good shots on the net that weren’t blocked from the slot and in front of the net.
“good shots on net that weren’t blocked from the slot and in front of the net.”
Well, if they aren’t blocked, they certainly did get through to the net. And both Devils goals in Game 3 game from above the dots, Briere’s goal in Game four game from above the dots, and Carcillo’s goal was a terrible angle. What exactly does shot location on those goals tell you? Nothing about team play.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 22, 2010 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
By you numbers up there it looks like the Flyers were getting outplayed when that is clearly not the case. And you would agree with that.
What exactly does shot location on those goals tell you? Nothing about team play.
I think shot location is a clear indication of team play. The Flyers are giving them the low percentage shots from the outside. That is exactly how the Flyers want to play and is exactly what they did when they were so successful with Leighton. This systems reminds of what the Devils were like in their trap years. When you finally get through the trap the only thing they would give you was low percentage shots from the outside and they played a passive shot blocking PK. The only difference is instead of the neutral zone trap the Flyers use a highly aggressive two man forecheck. Whenever the Devils get out of their zone clean it is a 2 on 2 rush where the Flyers D-men just collapse back and force the play to the outside. Nothing really dangerous happens.
Meanwhile the Flyers control the puck in the offensive zone along the boards and in the corners for a long periods of time without getting a shot off or just missing a bang bang pass play which doesn’t show up in the shots numbers. The Flyers get better quality chances with open looks in high percentage scoring areas and control the play.
The fact that Briere and Carcillo goals were scored is just an indication that Boucher is outplaying Marty, both those goals should not go in.
By you numbers up there it looks like the Flyers were getting outplayed when that is clearly not the case. And you would agree with that.
Well, no. I wouldn’t agree with that. As I said in the article, teams who are trailing outshoot their opponent. There are plenty of articles on the subject, including the one I linked to. When the Flyers are up 3-1 or 4-1, they have little reason to shoot the puck. Alternatively, the Devils have every reason to just get the puck on the net, from any angle.
As far as the Flyers controlling the puck, that was something we discussed after Game 3. I don’t think that’s what happened in this game, but neither can be proven. Plus, the “getter quality chances with open looks…” is hardly accurate. The Devils got tons of rebounds off Boucher that our defense has luckily swept out of harms way. Certainly, you remember the great Flyers chances, but there were plenty of not good chances.
Lastly, I disagree entirely that Boucher is outplaying Marty. The Flyers are thoroughly outplaying the Devils, Boucher is playing steady, but Marty did everything he could to steal Game 3, whereas Boucher has just been solid.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 22, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
As I discussed with someone here at work this morning, Marty is stopping roughly 4 or 5 of 6 really good scoring chances every game. Most other goalies would be making 2 or 3 of those saves.
Eight years ago, he’d be stopping 5 or 6 of those 6.
Agreed. Marty isn’t what he once was, but that doesn’t mean Boucher is outplaying him.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 22, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
he isn’t, Boucher is making the stops he has to make with an occassional great save mixed in. Brodeur, by contrast is making several sensational saves, but letting in a few that are mostly unstoppable for any other goalie. We’re just used to him making those saves as well, as Mario pointed out.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Apr 22, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Some of Brodeur’s amazing saves, though, have looked to me like they were amazing because he made the wrong play and recovered from it. It’s the same sort of thing we’d kvetch about with Niittymaki, that he made those brilliant acrobatic saves because his positioning sucked. Now, Brodeur’s overplaying things, dropping too soon, and has a gaping 5-hole, but he’s still quick enough to usually recover from those mistakes. Unfortunately for him, usually hasn’t been good enough so far this series.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
his defense has also given him no support at all
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Apr 22, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
To start your boy Boucher hasn’t been scored on at even strength is the last two games. Marty has made some amazing saves but he has also let some ugly goals I still think Marty is playing good but his SV PCT is under 0.900 at 0.886 ranked 14th out of the 18 goalies that saw action in the playoffs so far and his GAA is 2.98 that is not good enough especially for a Vezina Trophy Candidate. That is not the case for Boucher he has been solid like you said maybe more than solid with a 0.925 SV PCT ranked 6th. Looking at the numbers Boucher is clearly out playing Marty.
I will leave you with this. If the Flyers aren’t outplaying the Devils and Boucher isn’t outplaying Marty how the hell are we winning this series 3-1?
who said the Flyers aren’t outplaying the Devils? I think Geoff said the following:
The Flyers are thoroughly outplaying the Devils,
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Apr 22, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Broad Street Hockey
Related FanShots on Broad Street Hockey
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
SBNation.com Recent Stories
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Kings vs. Coyotes Game 5; Pierre McGuire on Tortorella/DeBoer argument (Playoff Puck Previews)
- Behold, the incredible playoff beards of Radko Gudas and AHL’s Norfolk Admirals
- Coyotes vs. the road warriors: Can Phoenix end LA Kings’ road domination?
- Coyotes, Kings Game 5 preview; Claude Giroux has fun; PK Subban on the ladies (Puck Headlines)
- Stanley Cup Final schedule released; Game 1 on May 30, Game 7 would be June 13
Latest stories and headlines from NHL.com
- Tokarski, Admirals blank IceCaps 4-0; Norfolk wins AHL's Eastern Conference
- Norfolk advances to Calder Cup Finals
- Oilers president Lowe says vacant coaching job not discussed with Sutter
- Eastern Conference champ to host Game 1 of Stanley Cup final on May 30
- Rangers, Devils brush away rhetoric, prepare for crucial Game 5 in East finals
