ECQF Game Four: Time on Ice Numbers

For Game Three, we saw three players who had outstanding games.  We also mentioned that there isn't a complete correlation between shots fired and success.  Specifically, the Flyers played a pretty dominating Game Three, but the shots were fairly even.

Game Four showed another important thing to remember regarding Corsi and Fenwick:  teams who are trailing tend to get a lot of shots off.  For a look at how the numbers change based upon the score, check out this post from Behind the Net.

That should give you enough context to give you these numbers:  The Flyers were outshot 21-17 at even-strength; 34-24 in Fenwick; and 52-34 in Corsi. 

Jump to see how everybody did.

Again, we'll start with the zone start numbers.  Amazingly, the team did not ice the puck last night.  As such, the team started in the offensive zone 13 times and the defensive zone 11 times.

  • No Flyer began a shift in the defensive zone more than 5 times.
  • No Flyer began a shift in the offensive zone more than 6 times.
  • Neither James van Riemsdyk nor Claude Giroux had a single defensive zone start.
  • Simon Gagne only had 1 offensive zone start.
  • Chris Pronger was out for the most non-neutral zone faceoffs (again) with 11 of the 24.

Really, a pretty boring zone-start summary.  Everything was pretty even, not much to praise or complain about.  But if I missed anything, feel free to point it out.

The Corsi and Fenwick numbers are a lot more interesting, if only because they show that a team with the lead gives up more shots.

Player Goals Saved Shots Missed Shots Fenwick Blocked Shots Corsi
Krajicek 0 0 2 8 3 3 -6 7 7 -6
Coburn 1 0 9 9 2 4 -1 1 2 -2
Betts 0 0 3 4 0 1 -2 1 1 -2
Gagne 0 0 2 4 0 3 -5 1 4 -8
Carcillo 1 0 4 3 1 7 -4 1 7 -10
Laperriere 0 0 2 5 0 1 -4 1 1 -4
Carter 2 0 8 4 4 1 9 4 4 9
Richards 1 0 3 4 1 8 -7 2 7 -12
Hartnell 0 0 6 3 2 0 5 5 6 4
Pronger 1 0 6 7 3 6 -3 3 9 -9
van Riemsdyk 0 0 3 7 2 6 -8 3 5 -10
Carle 1 0 2 8 3 8 -10 4 6 -12
Giroux 0 0 1 9 3 5 -10 2 7 -15
Boucher 2 0 15 21 7 13 -10 10 18 -18
Powe 0 0 4 4 1 2 -1 2 0 1
Timonen 1 0 9 4 1 3 4 1 4 1
Asham 0 0 3 8 3 1 -3 2 6 -7
Briere 1 0 5 3 3 2 4 4 6 2
Parent 0 0 2 7 2 2 -5 4 8 -9

So, a refresher:  The Flyers were outshot 21-17 at even-strength; 34-24 in Fenwick; and 52-34 in Corsi. Those large disparities lead to some pretty obvious outliers above.

Shots on Goal

With the team being outshot by four, only Coburn, Carcillo, Carter, Hartnell, Timonen, and Briere were in the positives.  The biggest positive outliers were Kimmo Timonen (+6) and Jeff Carter (+6).  That's pretty good work, since both were on the ice for 10 of the Flyers 21 shots on goal.  And now Carter is on crutches...

On the other side, plenty of players finished in the negatives.  The biggest outliers there were Lukas Krajicek (-6), Ryan Parent (-5), Arron Asham (-5), and Matt Carle (-5).  This would normally show that the third-pairing got abused again - which might or might not be true - but teams who are trailing outshoot their opponents.  Not really sure what to conclude from this.

Fenwick (SOG + Missed Shots)

The Devils certainly do miss the net a lot.  Last night, the Devils missed the net 13 times compared to the Flyers' 7.  With the team having a minus-10 Fenwick, the outliers once again are easy to pick out.  The only players to finish in the positive in this category were Carter (+9), Hartnell (+5), Timonen (+4), and Briere (+4).  Coburn was a minus-1, or else the entire second-line would have been in the positive.  Based on the Head-to-Head numbers, it appears as if the main matchup there was against Brian Rolston and Travis Zajac.  That line did a good job shutting those two down.

Those at the other end of the spectrum were Giroux (-10), Carle (-10), van Riemsdyk (-8), and Mike Richards (-7).  Interesting collection there, but two third-line forwards, one first-line winger, and one first-pairing defenseman.  Both Carle and Richards were victim to 8 missed Devils shots, which again makes me wonder how the Devils continue to miss the net.

Corsi (Fenwick + Blocked Shots)

Again, the Flyers found themselves in the negative here, finishing the game a minus-18 in Corsi.  With the Devils firing so many pucks toward the net, could anybody be a positive??  Yes, yes they can.  Jeff Carter, Scott Hartnell, Darroll Powe, Kimmo Timonen, and Danny Briere all finished above even.  Truly remarkable.  At this point, despite being unable to conclude anything from the shots on goal category, I think it's safe to say the second line had a damn good game.  And they won't be able to build off of it.

Continuing the theme, the bad news revolved around Claude Giroux (-18), Matt Carle (-12), Mike Richards (-12), James van Riemsdyk (-10), and Dan Carcillo (-10).  At this point, I'm curious who these guys went up against.  That only partially makes me feel better:

  • Giroux - Clarkson, Niedermayer, Letourneau-Leblond;
  • Carle - Elias, Kovalchuk, Parise; 
  • Richards - Zubrus, Elias, Parise;
  • van Riemsdyk - Neidermayer, Clarkson, Letourneau-Leblond;
  • Carcillo - Zubrus, Elias, Parise

Carle, Richards, and Carcillo are given a Get Out of Jail Free card for a) their opposition; b) their Game 3 performance; and c) the likelihood that Elias, Kovy, and Parise were out at the end of the game throwing rubber at Boucher.  Giroux and JVR are a little more troubling since they got outshot by scrubs.  Yeah, I'm insulting the Devils' third line.  Still, I don't think this is too big of a deal.  The trailing team gets more shots off and the Flyers' third line played fine in Game 3.  They weren't good in Game 4, and they certainly can improve in Game 5, but Giroux getting outshot 9-1 is something I don't foresee happening again.

Conclusion

It's interesting to look at the Corsi and Fenwick numbers four games in a row.  It's quite possible this is the first time I've ever done it, and there's some pretty big variance on a game-by-game basis.  But it gives you an idea of how the coaching matchups (line vs. line) played out on the ice.  Last night, the Flyers best line was Hartnell-Carter-Briere.  The worst line was JVR-Giroux-Asham, with Gagne-Richards-Carcillo not far behind.  But again, these "best" and "worst" are based on shots.  Not a single Flyer was on the ice for an even-strength goal against.

What I would say is the most worrisome is the third-pairing getting outshot (again).  It's not so much that they got outshot as it is that they got outshot at home.  By the Devil's fourth-line.  Not sure what their problem is, but if they can't get out of their own end with a favorable matchup, I worry about the road matchups.  But what else is new?

Lastly, when's the last time Matt Carle and Claude Giroux were this badly outshot?  Not sure, but Giroux having three offensive zone starts to zero defensive suggest he had a pretty bad game last night; at even-strength of course. 

Anybody see anything else/different?

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