Comprehensive Guide for Who Next Flyer to Fly Will Be

by Alon on Jun 20, 2010 4:39 PM EDT

There're a lot of trade rumors flying around, so I figured it could be worthwhile to compile all of them and then look back and see what happens for fun.

1. Trade Jeff Carter.

Pros: His value is still high as a great 2 way forward with an elite wrist shot and great speed. He could probably get us the most back in trade, and his contract is almost up and looking for at least a 10% raise.

Cons: He's an already top line 2 way center with potential for more growth. He's young, and a major part of our core. He's probably our third or fourth best player on average, but when he's hot he's one of our top two players.

Trade Options:

A. For a young RW PWF and whatever else we can get. Some options include guys like Bobby Ryan, Dustin Brown, Nate Horton.
B. For a young Top 6 forward in general. Hope another center can learn RW, a guy like FLA's Weiss.
C. For a young blue chip goalie prospect. Options include guys like Jonathan Bernier, Michael Neuvirth, Cory Schneider, Steve Mason, Jacob Markstrom, Carey Price (assuming MTL gets another goalie)
D. For an older, top-notch goalie. The only goalie who seems available/worthwhile is Tomas Vokoun.
E. For a young D man. Allows us to trade Coburn's rights. So, we'd get a young D man + something for Carter, then something else for Coburn.

2. Trade Danny Briere

Pros: I hear the calls for a permanent line of Hartnell - Briere - Leino, but isn't Hartnell - Carter - Leino just as promising? After all, Carter centered the Hartnell - Carter - Upshall line admirably, and Leino is like a better version of Upshall. Danny Briere is coming off a dominant playoff performane, and his value might never be higher. I give his chances of returning to his Buffalo performance days as less than his chances of continuing his Philly pace, regardless of if he's centering a line. Briere's been the odd-man-out usually, with the downside being that we wouldn't be able to get much for him. That may not be true anymore.

Cons: He has a NMC, he's in a good situation in Philly, especially if he's centering Hartnell & Leino. He probably wouldn't want to move without guarantees of being a top 2 center on a contender. Also, his playoff performance screams potential moving forward, which might be worthwhile pursuing.

Trade scenarios are the same as for Carter.

3. Trade Scott Hartnell

Pros: Value is probably high-ish after a great playoffs (but mediocre regular season). Is a top 8 forward on most teams, should be a top 6 guy if he's playing to his potential.

Cons: Probably gets us the least value

Trade scenarios are probably confined to getting a goalie or RW, since Leino can play LW.

There're other guys available, I'm sure, but I feel like these guys are the most likely to go.

Personally, I'd prefer sending Briere. I don't think his value is going to get higher, and assuming he is willing to waive his clause (a big assumption), I'd take the slightly less value he brings back in exchange for the higher cap flexibility and the younger (more talented/potential) Carter.

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by Broad Street Hockey.

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You are forgetting one...

Simone Gagne. He’s making over six million next year. Trading him opens up room to sign Carter/Lieno/Giroux (Carter gets 1 mil more max/Claude and Viille can share the other 4+ mill) and the rest of their salaries comes from what we have. His value is higher than Brieres, but lower than Carters. He can get the goalie or another elite center, cosidering that Gags will be getting a pay CUT in a year. If you package him with Coburn you could get a real nice deal, and if we were looking for the young goalie + the top guy (maybe Bernier/Brown) a Backlund/Gags/Coburn package might do the trick. The negatives that I can think of are that you still have 4 C’s to play 3 spots. Other than that and his no trade clause, not so many negatives. Trading Carter would break my heart. Gags had 10 years and is on the decline. Cartsey is hitting his prime and has the potential to be the next great flyer goal scorer.

by orangeandblack20 on Jun 20, 2010 5:29 PM EDT reply actions

Gagne would probably take less money to stay put. Besides, his playoff run shows that he still has gas in the tank.

I think Hartnell would go if one of the top 6 forwards are moving on.

#1 Flyers fan in England (originally from Southeastern PA)

by Orange and Black Forever on Jun 20, 2010 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Is Gags really an option?

I thought a lot about it, and I didn’t put him down because I just think there’s no way he waives his NMC, not to mention his tenure adds a sentimentality aspect that I think our front office wouldn’t be able to get over.

by Alon on Jun 20, 2010 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions

What about Hamhuis?

Hamhuis’ rights were acquired. That doesn’t mean he will sign, or that he will sign and stay. If he signs, why couldn’t he be the bargaining chip to acquire goaltending? Then someone like Boychuk — looks like Boston won’t be able to afford him after extending Seidenburg — could help to upgrade the D and eat Pronger/Timmo minutes at fewer $.

January 11, 1976

by TopShelfTony on Jun 20, 2010 6:25 PM EDT reply actions

You don't sign someone

that you’ve traded for, and then trade them right away. I’ve never seen it happen, ever.

If we lose Hamhuis it’ll be because we couldn’t sign him.

by Alon on Jun 20, 2010 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions

See reply in QOD.

January 11, 1976

by TopShelfTony on Jun 21, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Sorry to break O&B's Heart

Carter for Ryan, Sbisa, and maybe one or more of our draft choices back.

Get er done.

I was in college in Boston in 1974 and when Clarke scored the OT goal in game 2 I knew that the Flyers would win the Cup since they would never lose at home.

by Bud in TN on Jun 20, 2010 8:14 PM EDT reply actions

Every day Ryan doesn't have a new contract

Gives me hope

by PursuitOfLappyness on Jun 20, 2010 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t understand why Anaheim hasn’t signed Ryan long-term yet. I read somewhere he might want $3.5M/season. That seems like a fair deal to me.

by memphisbrando on Jun 20, 2010 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions

I’d sign him to a long-term deal for that cap hit in a heartbeat.

by Ben Feldman on Jun 20, 2010 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions

12 years @ 4m per?

harrumph

by Alon on Jun 20, 2010 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I’d prefer to avoid another decade-plus contract, but I’d do 8 years @ $4m if that was what it took to sign him. That takes him to age 31, and I don’t like doing multi-year contracts that go much beyond age 30. 12 years goes to 35, and the odds of any player having value at 35 are low. There are exceptions, but I’d rather not risk it.

Anaheim’s also short on centers – they have Getzlaf and Marchant signed, but Koivu’s a free agent, and their other centers that played last year were Chipchura and Ryan Carter. I know we’ve semi-seriously talked about Jeff Carter for Ryan + other assets, but I hadn’t actually looked at it until now, and it could make sense for both teams, depending on the other assets involved.

Honor is no substitute for victory.

by The Dark on Jun 21, 2010 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions

He is not going to take a long term deal at that cap hit. That deal would take him to his UFA age then he can get the big bucks or the year before like we did with Carter.

by chrislanci on Jun 22, 2010 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Looks good ...

… until you consider the cap for 2011-2012. Giroux, Leino, Gagne, and Boucher are free agents then. If you hand Ryan a long-term deal, you’d best get better terms than $4 million a year – unless you’re willing to part with G or Leino (I’m not, frankly). And you certainly don’t have any room to sign a goalie AT ALL even this year, so the Hamhuis upgrade better mean that 99% of the shots get blocked. I’d sure like to see Ryan in a Flyers uniform, but I just don’t see how it would work money-wise. The Flyers already have 5 forwards that make up over $25 million of their salary cap (Briere, Richards, Gagne, Carter, Hartnell) and likely will have four defensemen making up another $17 million (Pronger, Timonen, Carle, Hamhuis; not to mention whatever Coby gets) – that’s $42 million in cap salary with 11 empty roster positions. Subracting Carter’s $5 million just to add Ryan’s $4 million doesn’t help enough, even assuming Gagne takes a pay cut after next season. SOMEONE PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG …

by MaximumTalbot on Jun 21, 2010 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

The actual cap hit in 2011/12 is about $34m currently:
Briere $6.5m
Richards $5.75m
Hartnell $4.2m
van Riemsdyk $0.875m
Laperriere $1.0m
Betts $0.700m
Timonen $6.333m
Pronger $4.921m
Carle $3.438m
Bartulis $0.600m
Total: $34.317m

Giroux will be a restricted free agent. We only have to offer him a 5% raise to get Right of First Refusal or pick compensation. We either get Giroux for about $0.9MM, sign him at whatever he’s offered by another team, or get picks back – and those are pretty much the order I’d take them in as well, unless someone offers him something ridiculous.
If we sign Ryan for $4m, Hamhuis for $4m, and Coburn for $2m, even without Giroux, we’re at $44.317m with 9 slots to fill. That’s high, but we’d also mostly be looking for bottom six forwards and goalies – by then, we should have at least one goalie prospect coming up to fill one of those slots at an entry-level contract, which will also help. It is still bad, but not quite as bad as what you’re proposing.

Honor is no substitute for victory.

by The Dark on Jun 21, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Not to quibble, but JVR will make $1.654m – unless there’s something I’m missing on Capgeek.
And wouldn’t you rather have the latitude to sign G for a long-term contract? Leino will be up for contract as well after next season …

by MaximumTalbot on Jun 21, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions

The $1.654m for JvR is with bonuses. If we can afford the extra money that year, fine; if not, it goes to the next year’s cap, so I didn’t count it (darn bonuses make everything harder). I believe the bonus is just for playing in the NHL, so he’ll get it, but what year it will count against is still up in the air.

And yes, I’d rather sign Giroux to a long contract, but if that’s not possible with the cap space we have, the Group 2 minimum increase is an option. I’d especially rather do it that year because he’ll be our only RFA if we trade Carter, so we won’t be at risk of being two-sheeted.

Honor is no substitute for victory.

by The Dark on Jun 21, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

It won't work that way

The 5% raise is a ‘qualifying offer’. That is, we need to show Giroux a qualifying offer to hold on to his rights, otherwise we lose him July 1. But that doesn’t mean we can get Giroux at 0.9 million, because he has to accept the offer too, and he knows he’s worth a lot more than that. Even if no-one gives him an offer sheet, he can just hold out and say no, or, he can opt to apply for salary arbitration and then the arbitrator decides what salary he deserves, and we will be forced to accept that salary for a one year contract or let him go as a UFA. We won’t be able to get him for any less than 3, and if we’re signing long-term we’re probably looking at 4.

by PursuitOfLappyness on Jun 21, 2010 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Giroux's not eligible for arbitration

He only played 5 AHL games at age 19, and the CBA says that a 19-year-old must play 10 NHL games for it to count as a professional year. Therefore, he’s only played 3 seasons as a professional. Someone who signed an SPC at ages 18 to 20 needs 4 years to be eligible for arbitration. He could refuse such a contract, but then be unable to play in the NHL next season.

Honor is no substitute for victory.

by The Dark on Jun 22, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions

yep

all the same, you want a happy giroux. Maybe we could give him a 2 year deal with a huge amount of bonuses that all fall into the 2nd year… $900k the firs tyear, $5m the 2nd year… Kinda like deferring the cap hit with JVR? I’m not even sure that’s possible. If it is, it’s doable because Timonen would come off the books. Sigh.

by Alon on Jun 22, 2010 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for the clarification

by PursuitOfLappyness on Jun 23, 2010 4:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Vokoun, yes please.

by FireTheWalrus on Jun 22, 2010 9:44 AM EDT reply actions

TRADE JEFF CARTER NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He blew in the playoffs, just like in this regular season. The only time he scores is when he’s right in front of the net. And he takes that HOOOOOORRRIBBBLLLEEEEEE snap shot comin up the right wing EVERY time he has the puck! The guy is a stonewall retard when it comes to interviews and messed up the team chemistry, ala bangin Hartnel’s wife. Please Holmgren trade this idiot while other teams still think he’s good.

by dmastax1x on Jun 28, 2010 6:50 PM EDT reply actions