Homer smartly plays it safe: Flyers have verbal agreement with Sharks on Nabokov

Phew. This is an excellent deal by Homer. I will admit I was concerned for a few hours there that the Flyers might just re-sign Leighton if this was going to be too much trouble.

All time leaders in save percentage for goalies with 50 or more playoff games:

1 – J.S. Giguere, .925
2 – Dominick Hasek, .925
3 – Miikka Kiprusoff, .921
4 – Ed Belfour, .920
5 – Martin Brodeur, .919
6 – Patrick Roy, .918
7 – Nikolai Khabibulin, .917
8 – Curtis Joseph, .917
9 – Chris Osgood, .916
10. – John van Biesbrouck, .915
11. – Evgeni Nabokov, .913

Not a terrible list….

I think it would be great if we get him signed before July 1

If we can sign him to a max of 2 years and not pay through the nose for him then it’s ok, but to have him 3+ years at his age at 5+ million a year= big mistake. You can compare him to Brodeur in terms of great goalies currently playing, but the Brodeur of today isn’t the same Brodeur than won all those Cups and age is a large part of that, which is my biggest concern with Nabokov. My other big concern is SJ’s playoff choke history, but I think that’s more a team choke all these years than solely the responsibility of the goalie. On the plus side, given our strong D and how well they made Leighton look, all Nabokov has to do is be better slightly than Leighton was, which isn’t that hard. I didn’t want Nabokov at first, but the more I think about it the more I like it, but a lot will depend on what the terms are, assuming he doesn’t sign with another team for more money. I think at his age he wants a Cup more than a few more millions of dollars and there are only a few teams that could be considered serious contenders, and from those teams even fewer who are in the market for a goalie so he’d be wise to take a pay cut for a serious chance to win it in Philly. Just my .02 worth.

if you can get him for that kind of deal, then do it. anyone who doesnt want to do this makes no sense to me. There’s no one else to get. Im sick of hearing about Bernier, he’s a minor league goalie, it guarrantees nothing in the NHL. Nabokov is proven to be able to play, he’s an improvement over Boosh and Leighton. We’re not going to be able to sign Brodeur or Hasek in their prime or Ryan Miller, people need to give up that there’s some fantasy goalie out there right now.

Oh and if we trade Carter for a goalie, Im going to kill Paul Holmgren. Carter is not worth an all or nothing deal. If we trade him for a goalie, and the goalie isnt awesome, the whole thing is a giant waste.

Signing Nabokov for a reasonable deal and not trading away any key players is the obvious best move.

How people are against this I have no idea.

Nabokov’s has a 2.29 save percentage in the playoffs, so frankly I dont want to hear about playoff failures. The sharks players in front of Nabokov are terrible in the playoffs.

Somebody explain to me how this is not a good enough combination:
Pronger+Timmonen+Carle+Coburn+Nabokov.

please. opponents and fans will hate on the surface, but underneath they’ll just be scared because the combination of the Flyers defense and Nabokov is certainly Stanley Cup worth.

Frankly I think having Nabokov coming in here with a chip on his shoulders is just going to help the situation.

I think they want to keep Cote, because he’s basically like a loyal dog. He wants to play here, he’ll do whatever the organization asks of him, take as low as salary as necessary, and he’ll play his heart out when he goes out there. Also Cote’s wife might be performing sexual favors for the front office.

I still think we should trade Carcillo to clear some more cap space, I want Powe on the 4th line with Lappy and Betts, Powe can bring more to the table since he can penalty kill in addition to play 5 on 5. Resign Asham if we want to try to get some more cap space to go after a top right winger or go after a guy like Recchi for the 3rd line at 1 mil (slightly more expensive than Asham).

If we’re not going to move Carter I dont see much choice than having to move Richards out on the wing with Carter at center. The combination of Briere and Carter just has never produced like it should. And I think it’d be a mistake to break up the Leino-Briere-Hartnell line at least for now. So I guess…

Gagne-Carter-Richards
Leino-Briere-Hartnell
JVR-Giroux-Asham/Recchi
Lappy-Betts-Powe

Pronger-Carle
Timmonen-Coburn
?-Bartulis

unless we move Carter for a winger and defenseman, like the deal ive seen here many times, pretty much a fantasy, but I would make out with a Carter for Bobby Ryan-Lucas Sbisa deal. They would get the right winger they need and a serviceable 5th defenseman, then you’d have

Gagne-Richards-Ryan
Leino-Briere-Hartnell
JVR-Giroux-Asham/Recchi
Lappy-Betts-Powe

Pronger-Carle
TImmonen-Coburn
Sbisa-Bartulis

G1 Nabokov
G2 Boucher

…. Id love it.

I find it hard to believe that Homer would be burned twice. He talked to Meehan extensively (it seems) at the draft. He HAS to have an idea that he’ll sign there.

To get just two games away from the Stanley Cup, the Flyers aren’t far away at this point. The team only needs a little improvement to win next year (especially considering the ’Hawks are taking a backwards leap because of cap constraints).

What are the two areas all Flyer fans know need improving? 1. A solid, steady netminder and 2. a third quality defensive pairing. Everything other than that is icing on the cake as far as I’m concerned.

Is Nabby the best goalie in the league? Nope, not really. Is he an improvement over what the team had at any point last year? Absolutely. So the team only needs another dependable D-man or two to finally hoist the Cup.

LOL @ a Canucks fan calling him overrated. I wonder if he knows Luongo is on his team…

the flyers believe they can make a “salary cap” friendly deal with Nabokov, so hopefully this is all what we’re hoping for.

That news about Bobby Ryan is tantalizing. I wonder if we really could get him for a Carter trade. And I feel like Ryan would take a slight discount, to play in philly. I wonder if we should not ask for anything more than Ryan for Carter. This way we get Ryan and cap space that we can use at our own discretion towards getting a really solid 5th defenseman or a decent 3rd line RW like Colby Armstrong . Although a Carter for Ryan and Sbisa deal would be nice as well.

The Flyers may end up signing Nabakov for $4 m per year, but there is NO way that is happening before July 1st. He wants to test the open market so why would he take an offer that is the bottom end of what he is seeking for less years than he probably wants. Something tells me at his age he wants more than a two year deal. (See Tim Thomas)

Also, as of today, is Bernier worth Carter…of course not, but we are living in a salary cap era and have salary cap issues. You think the Blackhawks wanted to trade away Big Buff and will most likely have to move Sharp and Versteeg? If we want to trade apples for apples, then I am fine with moving JVR for Bernier.

As for we need a veteran goalie and cannot go with a young goalie. Didn’t a rookie just win the Stanley Cup?

And, excuse me if don’t trust this organization for cultivating young goalies.

I used to be a big Nabakov fan but I watched him quit on his team at the Olympics and then not "win" any games for his team in the Conference Finals. Leighton may have faltered in the Finals, but at least he "won" (meaning his play was a major reason why his team won games) a game or two in the Conference Finals.

In the end, I don’t want to be hamstrung with the cap because of a veteran goalie who I have no faith can get the job done. With Pronger and Timonen, we need the final piece now (and I don’t know who that is, I’ll admit my preference is Bernier) and can’t wait two or three years for a cap hit to come off or for an organization goalie when this organization hasn’t developed a goalie since the mid 1980’s.

i think people have way too much of a love affair with this guy, he’s all built up in people’s heads as some larger than life fantasy. It’s not happening there’s been zero talk of it, as far as I know, just let it go. Nabokov is the solution for upgrade here. Vokoun isnt coming to save the day and neither is Bernier.

Nabokov-Boosh ’10
2010 Flyers Campaign Slogan: “Flyers in the front, Sharks in the back”

Anyone know where Max Afinogenov is likely to end up? He’s a little frail, but fast as hell and has great hands. Had some rough years recently but came back in a big way with Atlanta for 24 goals and 61 points. I think it could be good if we gave him a cheapish 2 year deal and slap him with Giroux and JVR. He’d definitely be an upgrade from Asham’s cement hands, as much as I liked him.

For 3rd line RW:

Afinigenov would be nice. But I wouldnt mind Colby Armstrong or Recchi either. Colby’s numbers took a hit in Atlanta, which isnt a surprise, but i remember him being dangrous on pittsburgh, pair him with some talent, like JVR and Giroux and he can be real nice. Recchi would be a solid backup option – he’s cheap, would only be guarranteed salary for one year, can play defense, and is still a deceptive goal scorer.

If we get Nabokov at a reasonable deal. We still will have room to get that 5th defenseman and help on RW on third line with a guy like Armstrong/Afinigenov/Recchi.

If the above happens I will be very very pleased with Holgrem.

I’d also like to see us move Carcillo for cap space and re-sign Powe.

A bonus deal in addition to that would be a Carter for Bobby Ryan and Lucas Sbisa deal.

Ideally for me:

Gagne-Richards-Ryan
Leino-Briere-Hartnell
JVR-Giroux-Armstrong/Recchi
Lappy-Betts-Powe

Pronger-Carle
Timmone-Coburn
5th defenseman FA signing – Sbisa

G1 Nabokov
G2 Boucher

The good news from Capgeek is that they already list Nabokov as UFA for the Flyers! That site is amazing.

Now, the bad news. The cap is REALLY snug. Anything more than $4 million cap hit for Nabokov and the Flyers are in trouble. Recall that AFAIK you must have 23 men on the roster (Geoff, Dragongirl or other CBA experts care to weigh in here? What happens if they only have 21? Is this a violation? )

I’ve included the cheap people folks, and a slot for “you name him” UFA defensemen at $1.5. I “assume”, given that Randy Jones got $3 million last year, you would not want to spend less than $1.5 or you might as well keep Kracijek, as that is quality level you would get. . In truth, Nodl probably isn’t here on a 23 man roster and one of the other two way defensemen are in this position of 7th defensemen (Bourdon? Lehtivouri? Marshall?) It’s your call since the cap hit would be nearly the same. Note that Cote has to be listed in a 23 man roster, rather than a defensemen, for this cap space analysis since any of the other two way D players make $300 K more than Riley.

If you want more capspace, maybe sign Asham over Carcillo – but again, that is the Hobbes choice you are facing.

One minor thing, I have put my preferred no-major-trades “3rd” line of Carter-JVR-Giroux together.

FORWARDS
Daniel Briere ($6.500m) / Scott Hartnell ($4.200m)/Ville Leino ($0.800m)
Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Simon Gagne ($5.250m)/ * Daniel Carcillo ($0.900m)
Jeff Carter ($5.000m) / / James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m)/Claude Giroux ($0.822m)
Ian Laperriere ($1.167m) // / / Blair Betts ($0.700m)/* Darroll Powe ($0.600m)
/
 Andreas Nodl ($0.850m)/ Riley Cote ($0.550m)

DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Matt Carle ($3.438m) / * Braydon Coburn ($2.800m)

• Younamehim ($1.500m) / Oskars Bartulis ($0.600m)
  GOALTENDERS
• Evgeni Nabokov ($4.000m) / Brian Boucher ($0.925m) / Johan Backlund ($0.800m)
  CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
  (these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
  ROSTER: 23; CAP: $59.4m; PAYROLL: $60.060m; CAP ROOM: $0.093m BONUSES: $0.752m

I really expect, based on this, if Nabokov is signed before July 1 more moves HAVE to be made (the ubiquitous Carter for Ryan and Sbisa trade?), or what you see is what you get.

I don’t understand why there’s any debate here. Homer’s only got one reasonable course of action, and that is to send the following fax to Don Meehan, then start talking to Braydon Coburn’s agent (or Carcillo’s or whoever’s):

Dear Don,

Is Evgeni interested in being a Flyer? Here’s our offer:

2010-11 $8m
2011-12 $8m
2012-13 $6m
2013-14 $1m
2014-15 $1m
2015-16 $1m
2016-17 $1m

Let me know by the end of the day tomorrow so we can draw up the papers wednesday.

   Thanks,
     Paul

Carter can be a potentially great player, but from what we’ve also seen he could be a major letdown as well. His effort at times can be questionable, he seems to shrink away in the biggest moments. Obviously you cant argue with his goal numbers, but at the same time when your team makes a serious run to the Cup without you it certainly opens things up for debate.

Simply put this team cant keep going as is. Carter’s 5 mil can buy you 2 effective players. For a cap strapped team that’s huge. Would you rather move Briere or Hartnell first? Sure. But the reality is that probably isnt going to happen.

So you’ve got a choice, do you stay center heavy, or move Carter and get better players for your already strong center team?

Ive heard talk of move Carter to the 3rd line center in between Giroux and JVR. I think that’s a mistake. First of all are we really going to pay 5 mil a year for a 3rd line center? Secondly we’ve seen the results of the Carter-Briere pairing – surprisingly ineffective. It’s like they almost cancel eachother out because both are both are natural goal scorers.

Thats why the Hartnell-Carter-Briere line doesnt work. None of the those guys are playmakers. Hartnell’s your physical gritty, protect your guys, banger, charge the net guy. And then you’ve got two goal scorers with no other guy out there on nice making moves and distracting the opponents players.

And that’s why the Leino-Briere-Hartnell line was so effective. You had Hartnell going around hitting guys clearing space, Leino flying all over the ice, making teams worry about covering him, and then Briere can get open and be fed the puck to score, and if he doesnt, then Hartnell was there in the front of the net to put the rebound in the net. We saw it work time and again in the playoffs.

Having said all of that, it isnt like we’ve seen the Leino-Briere-Hartnell line perform all season, it was only a small sample size. Although an impressive one.

Now remember Leino’s contract is up at the end of next season. So if Leino makes Hartnell and Briere better, considering Briere and Hatnell’s contracts, isnt smarter to move Carter’s contract to be able to not only keep Leino, but maybe get another serviceable player as well.

If you lose Leino, and go back to the Hartnell-Carter-Briere line, ehhhhh, that didnt seem to work too well. If you keep Carter, it’s just a 1 for 1 deal, you keep Carter, and that’s fine, he’s a good player. But if you keep Leino, it’s almost a 3 for 1 deal. You keep Leino and you get more out of Briere and Hartnell. And assuming Leino’s raise goes somewhere in the 2-3 mil range, then you still have room to sign another player with the cap space Carter’s contract creates.

So in one breath you shouldnt trade a player like Carter for cap space. But in another breath, you’re not really trading Carter just for cap space. You’re trading Carter to keep a guy like Leino and go get another guy, maybe a RW or another defenseman.

And doesnt that help this team out more than just holding onto Carter and his 5 million contact. Between his contract, Richards, Hartnell’s and Briere’s and Gagne’s there just simply wont be room to improve this team for the future.

Even if we dont move Carter now, we’re probably going to have to in the future with the increase coming for Giroux and if we want to keep Leino.

Unless people are satisfied with Carter-Richards-Hartnell-Briere-Gagne-Giroux for years to come. Admittedly a great core, but the problem is with the salary cap dedicated to those guys plus whatever goalie we have and whatever defense we need, that pretty much leaves us with no room to ever add to it. You would just be throwing minor league-ers out there to play with them.

And as we saw with the Penguins just having a good core group of offensive players isnt enough. Even a Sidney Crosby needs a Bill Guerin.

So at some point, whether it’s now or later, something’s going to have to give. Gagne retiring will help, but that could still be a litlle ways off, and the other guys in that group arent going anywhere whether it be because of importance to the franchise – Richards, Giroux or because of contract – Hartnell, Briere, so Carter is still the odd guy out because of his contract and his trade value.

It’s not that anyone wants Jeff Carter traded, it’s just simply that realistically he might have to be traded, now or in the future, more likely than not it’s coming.

Unless Homer pulls off something none of us see coming.