A Deeper Look Into The Philadelphia Flyers July 1 Plans
Anthony SanFilippo has a great blog post up on the Flyers plans come tomorrow, which he obtained via an exec in the organization. Go read that, and come back here where we'll break it down:
- Goaltending: The Flyers are going to buy out, waive or trade Brian Boucher now that Michael Leighton has re-signed. Trading Boosh has to be the first choice over a buy out, simply because of cap space, but a buy out might be necessary if there aren't any takers. Leighton will likely serve as the backup next season, as one of Dan Ellis, Evgeni Nabokov, Marty Turco and Chris Mason are being targeted by the orange and black to fill the starting role.
The organization does not believe Ellis will be signing in Montreal, and that doesn't really make much sense anyway. Why would Ellis sign with Montreal as a backup to Carey Price when he could get a starting job with another team if he waits another day?
The interest in Turco and Nabokov was evident over the weekend, but now we have more confirmation on it. Mason is a guy that hasn't stirred up a lot of rumor thus far, but he's probably just as feasible an option as the other three. He's cheaper and, realistically, not much less of a talent.
Let's be real for a second: all four of these guys are steps up from Leighton, who, despite all of his brilliance this season, is still a backup goaltender. According to SanFilippo's source, the Flyers don't believe goaltending is going to be as expensive as has been reported, re: $5 million for a guy like Nabokov. That makes a lot of sense considering the few teams that are in search of starting goaltending and the plethora of talent on the market.
Ellis and Mason are obviously on the lower end while Nabokov will come in as the most expensive of that bunch, but as mentioned, they think those guys will go cheaper than reported thus far. It makes sense when you think about the market.
Oh, and Tim Thomas: not happening, according to SanFilippo.
- Defense: We wrote earlier today that the Flyers should be fine if they just shore up that third pairing. They have higher hopes than that. You want names? Well, they hope Anton Volchenkov stays at around $4 million, and despite what Holmgren has said publicly, they're pretty sure Dan Hamhuis is going west and they won't have a chance at signing him.
Read between those lines, though: they believe Hamhuis is going west, meaning they knew that when they traded him to Pittsburgh for a third rounder over the weekend. Holmgren, man... dude is real.
Other guys they're after: Paul Martin is at the top of the list, but the Flyers believe he's out of their price range. After Martin and Volchenkov, they really like Henrik Tallinder from the Sabres. Kurtis Foster, expected to be an absolute bargain tomorrow despite the raise he will get, is also on their radar.
A third pairing of Volchenkov and Tallinder or even Tallinder and Foster would make me a happy fan. Foster is a right handed shot while the other three are all left handed shots.
- Forwards: The Flyers are indeed after a free agent forward. A mid-level guy like a Colby Armstrong or a Matt Cullen are on their radar. Whether they can fit someone in is yet to be seen, of course, and this is probably their lowest priority. Still, the Flyers want to improve things with a third line forward.
The defense might not be sorted out right away and the Flyers could wait til mid-July on that front, at least with a guy not named Volchenkov. The goaltending is half way there, and we have to expect that the first thing the team will get done is that department. It should be fun tomorrow.
Go over to SanFilippo's blog and read the entire thing. He has a ton of detail over there and goes beyond what we've said here. It's the perfect read to get you excited about what the Flyers might get done in the next couple of days.
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This is reassuring stuff. Tomorrow’s going to be a lot of fun. One thing I will say is if the Flyers want Kurtis Foster, why not just get it done as soon as possible and make sure you get him (while at the same time not getting into a bidding war of sorts with another team looking for a sleeper free agent D-man).
great post and analysis. It comes as a relief. Let’s just hope Homer is thinking the same as everyone else. I hope that Leights is just the insurance policy and that Homer can wait out the market to get a better goalie at a reasonable price ($4 million or less).
The fact that the Flyers may have basically stolen a 3rd round pick from Pitt and all they had to do was give up Ryan Parent is dastardly. Is the pens 3rd round pick conditional on Hamhuis signing (like the flyers pick to Nashville) or is it a done deal?
by historywillbemade on Jun 30, 2010 5:42 PM EDT reply actions
A third round pick isn’t really that big of a deal. Granted, you don’t want to throw away draft picks, but if it means the Pens get a leg up on the competition to negotiate with Hamhuis then I consider it worth it.
A player drafted after the second round has a 13% chance of making it in the NHL, and by that I mean play 200+ games, which still isn’t a whole lot. A third round guy definitely isn’t a sure thing. Even if it was, it’s going to be a good four-to-five years down the road until he develops into an NHL player. The idea is to win now. The window isn’t open forever. The idea to get inside positioning on a top level defenseman in his prime makes it worth it.
Anyway, the reason I came by was to ask you guys about your goaltending. Do you guys think Backlund is ready for a shot to take the starting job? He looked good in his debut against the Pens, maybe has to get one season in the AHL first. And lost in this is Emery. Do you think he has proven enough in his limited action to warrant a starting job elsewhere? Thoughts?
by Mario's Mullet on Jun 30, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
A third round pick is something. Not signing Hamhuis is nothing. Therefore, Flyers got something for nothing!
Regarding goaltending, the past week has been almost exclusively discussions about that. So I’d have a look around the site. I don’t think Emery will play again, he has busted hips.
New Zealand's 4th best Philadelphia Flyers fan
We’re under the impression Flyers believe that regardless of the situation this year, Backlund will be in the NHL for 2011-12 (in fact, CapGeek seems to suggest that while the first year of his deal is two-way the second year is one-way). And I think most of us believe Backlund has high potential, based on what Phantoms beat writer Tim McManus has written and told us. But we simply haven’t seen enough of him at the NHL level (just 40 minutes, as you know) to assume he’s ready to make that jump. He may well have had an opportunity to vie for a backup spot this training camp, but it would appear as though Leighton’s contract and the Flyers’ want to still sign another goalie has sort of taken that out of the realm of possibility.
Emery has been diagnosed with avascular necrosis of the hip, which is a fairly serious disease (poor blood supply to the hip/s which causes bone death) and is believed to be unable to continue his career.
Emery is done and no one is going to take the chance on him when they are so many goalies out there. A third round pick for Ryan Parent is better than nothing. Parent was RFA and probably not worth the price tag
by historywillbemade on Jun 30, 2010 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re right in saying that a third round pick isn’t that much of a big deal. But we haven’t seen a first or second round pick in two years, so excuse us for getting excited. If Hamhuis ends up signing with you after July 1 then it will still be worth it from your perspective, as the early negotiation probably gave you a leg up over the competition. If he goes out west like we believed he will then it won’t be. If he ends up signing with us after July 1 then it’ll be hilarious.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Jun 30, 2010 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair, there seem to be a lot of teams that need backups next season so trading Boosh might not be too bad. The only problem is we would be selling him low. He had a pretty bad season by the usual numbers and is coming off two injured knees.
I like Tallinder or Foster, or maybe even Lydman for a 3rd pair.
Matt Cullen is very good at face-offs, but we don’t need another center unless we move Betts.
New Zealand's 4th best Philadelphia Flyers fan
yes but there are tons of back-up goalies on the market that wouldn’t require a trade.
by historywillbemade on Jun 30, 2010 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
If either of them doesn’t it will be Powe. I don’t think Carbomb has anywhere else he will be welcome
New Zealand's 4th best Philadelphia Flyers fan
hopefully Powe signs
i was under the impression both Powe and Carcillo would be back and Asham wouldnt.
Powe is very underrated – he’s cheap, fast, he can penalty kill and play 4th line 5 on 5. I would much rather have Powe on this team than either Asham or Carcillo.
by bleedorangewhiteblack on Jun 30, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
We have 11 forwards under contract. Cote won’t play. If we sign Powe, Carbomb, and a FA, one of those three will be a 13th man, even if Asham leaves.
gotcha. again i hope Powe stays
by bleedorangewhiteblack on Jun 30, 2010 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Nodl will play ahead of Cote. Powe/ Nodl will fill out 4th line with Powe starting as energy/pk player.
by historywillbemade on Jun 30, 2010 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually reckon people would be happy to sign someone like Carcillo as an agitator with some offensive upside. Powe is someone that may fly under most team’s radar if he was on the open market. I would rather sign Powe than Carcillo.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Jun 30, 2010 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions
this is nuts. if we nail somehow Colby Armstrong for the 3rd line I will freak out. How are we going to sign a forward, defenseman and upgrade a goalie.
seems like too much.
man oh man i am bugging out right now. mostly in a good way, but this is intense.
by bleedorangewhiteblack on Jun 30, 2010 6:15 PM EDT reply actions
indeed. I hope that the goalie situation looks better once the dust clears.
by historywillbemade on Jun 30, 2010 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Army wants a raise
From 2.4M. Even you guys won’t overpay a guy like that by that much. Keeping Asham would be better and cheaper. (wouldn’t he be cheaper?)
Great article indeed
One thing though (not necessarily about the article). I’m not sure if Backlund is the one the Flyers are waiting for…I think they’re waiting for one of their young trio: Backlund, Eriksson, and Bobrovsky to emerge. Everyone forgets Goalie Bob, but he was a pretty decent goalie for what could be the worst team in the KHL. And Eriksson is young and budding. We’ll see, obviously, but these sentiments were echoed by Panaccio…
@philatticus on Twitter
Yeah. Bobrovsky’s really the great unknown here. We’ve seen what Backlund can do with a pretty bad team in front of him, and Eriksson has put up good numbers in the second-tier Swedish league and is transferring to the top Swedish Elite League year. But we really know nothing about Bobrovsky, other than he’s 21 and put up what look to us to be decent to good numbers for the worst team in the KHL (I don’t know nearly enough about the KHL to interpret how good/bad a 2.72 GAA and .919 save % is).
KHL stats here. He was 12th in the league on save percentage with only 9 wins and 22 losses. A lot of players had a lower GAA then him but also a lower save percentage, which perhaps indicates that he was left hung out to dry a bit. He faced 31 shots per game on average. The top 5 save percentage guys faced on average: 27, 23, 26, 25, 23 shots per game. Not even one defender on the team ended up in positive +/- territory.
His team, Metallurg NK, ended up last in the league with 105 goals for (last in the league) and 159 goals against (11th in the league out of 24). They were also 2nd last in PPG scored. I guess it shows why wins and losses aren’t very good at describing goaltenders.
The bit that excites me about Bob is how in juniors he was rated higher than Varlamov. A lot of people don’t rate Varlamov but I think he has a lot of potential, so hopefully Bobrovsky comes and quickly adjusts to North America.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Jun 30, 2010 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions
There are a few reports I’ve read, and all point to the fact that his team was absolutely HORRIFIC and that he was incredibly composed. I think the story with Varlamov was that he was picked for political reasons, but I forget where I saw that, other than knowing that they have a bit of a rivalry.
He seems to be fairly quick laterally, and just seems to be a decent talent all around. Apparently puck handling needs work, but other than Brodeur, everyone’s does.
@philatticus on Twitter
by Dylan Marck on Jun 30, 2010 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I also believe Bobrovsky will be with the Phantoms, but that’s conjecture because it was on a random scouting website. With Riopel and Backlund and a few others, it may be hard.
However, that being said, if Panotch is trusted, then if we see Bobby up there, it may mean he’s the guy they believe in for 2011.
So long as we don’t rush him like Varlamov…
@philatticus on Twitter
by Dylan Marck on Jun 30, 2010 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s fascinating stuff. Thanks a lot for that. I, too, am under the impression Bobrovsky will be with the Phantoms. He’s certainly not coming over to North America to play in the ECHL (which is where Riopel will probably end up).
by Ben Feldman on Jun 30, 2010 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Riopel and Stewart are both going to end up in the ECHL, honestly. But that could change.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 30, 2010 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
What do you guys think about Jonathan Cheechoo
I think it would be a low risk and pontentially big reward. He would cost next to nothing and I would love to have him play on the third line next to Giroux and JVR.
Has he been bought out yet or is just gone through waivers? At his current cap hit I think it would be far too much to pay
New Zealand's 4th best Philadelphia Flyers fan
He would be fine as an invitee to camp or whatever to see what he does but either there is something wrong with him (i.e he has a substantial injury that no one is talking about) or that 50 goal season was a total fluke… I would want the Flyers to offer him a contract prior to August.
"Game 7's are tough... It's a game that's made for men and our guys proved to be men today." -Laviolette
by PatterPoet95 on Jul 1, 2010 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
he makes three mil, but if we pick him up through waivers, isnt it half? And it would be less if he was bought out, i think
Tallinder...
Something about this guy really irks me. Could be because he reminds me of a guy I played against in a league once who was just a total douche bag but I feel like I’d have a hard time being glad he’s on our team… Then again, that could all change the minute he does something spectacular and earns my love… We’ll see..
I like Mason isn’t he younger than turco and nabokov?
I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.
By like one year. Not by much. He was a bit of a late bloomer.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
Wasn’;t sure on his age. Your right a late bloomer, maybe that is what they need.
I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.
by Christopher A on Jun 30, 2010 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions
So was Thomas. I understand the idea for a stop-gap; and for someone like Nabby, I’d take it. HIs highlights are flashy and consistent, whereas Thomas’ are all crazy Cechmanek-like saves.
I like Mason, but haven’t done much homework past knowing that he’s been forced out by the last two teams he’s started for. That never bodes well for confidence.
@philatticus on Twitter
by Dylan Marck on Jun 30, 2010 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I love it
Up down over around inside out outside in upside downside all around….and where she stops nobody knows!
Everyone has opinions on everything and everyone has no problem doing 180’s (sometimes in the same thread, sometimes more than once!) and there’s off-the-wall “logic” and a lot of out-there humour – I laugh out loud a lot reading some posts here – and the best part is it’s all give and taken in the spirit of love of the game (and the Flyers, natch). Hardly any crappy trashtalking. @##$%%&, even the language is pretty )(*##$ good!
This new post on ASF’s speculations gets mucho posts in about 2 nanoseconds (OK OK, behindthenet measured it at 2.7; so I skimmed a stat a bit to make my point…no one ever does that, I know)…
and tomorrow and over the rest of the summer we get to crow about how right we were or shake our heads in total disbelief. Can’t think of a better way to fill in the endless days until the season starts, can you?
p.s. " They WILL NOT trade Jeff Carter." ASF said so.
You're living in a parallel universe. Do not attempt angle parking.
January 11, 1976
I am an egotistical bastard
And I am taking full credit for this. I think it was my “magical” comment yesterday that sealed the deal.
"Game 7's are tough... It's a game that's made for men and our guys proved to be men today." -Laviolette
by PatterPoet95 on Jul 1, 2010 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
All 28 you made yesterday were magical, of course; but some comments are more magical than others, yeah? Which one, George?
You're living in a parallel universe. Do not attempt angle parking.
January 11, 1976
by TopShelfTony on Jul 1, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
The one where I asked you if defending Leighton was “equal to, greater than, or less than trying to convince people that trading Carter will not give Homer or the Flyers magical powers to plug every single weakness they have…” It was immediately following your “Saint Jude” comment. I’d link the thread but I just don’t feel like it…
"Game 7's are tough... It's a game that's made for men and our guys proved to be men today." -Laviolette
by PatterPoet95 on Jul 1, 2010 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, that was magical. No doubt. It wasn’t that one though, or — amazingly — not any of yours, although they certainly added to the effect.
You're living in a parallel universe. Do not attempt angle parking.
January 11, 1976
by TopShelfTony on Jul 1, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
I was uh, being sarcastic? I thought I was funnier than that. Oh well, at least I got a good laugh out of it.
"Game 7's are tough... It's a game that's made for men and our guys proved to be men today." -Laviolette
by PatterPoet95 on Jul 1, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
What, you’re the only one who can be sarcastic? ;)
Seriously, though, it was 2 separate things, one just one word; one that made me laugh out loud and one that made me shake my head, that lead to that post. I won’t quote them because it’s just my twisted brain that found them to be unique and I wouldn’t want to offend the authors. You want to post your email on your profile I’ll send them to you in confidence.
You're living in a parallel universe. Do not attempt angle parking.
January 11, 1976
by TopShelfTony on Jul 1, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Would anyone be cool if they went after Gonchar? What if they did offer him that third year, as long as it was at an affordable cap hit. Him on the power play to give other time off would be DEADLY.
Gonchar is just too expensive. We already have two guys Gonchar-like guys with Pronger and Timmonen. His contract would probably be too much. We need to get a better bargain and a younger defenseman.
I would love for us to swoop in and get Marc Staal.
by bleedorangewhiteblack on Jun 30, 2010 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
but even Staal is probably too expensive.
Throw a couple mil at Tallinder, a couple mil at Colby Armstrong and get that upgrade at a goalie. That’s probably the most we could do, and even then I dont know how we fit it.
by bleedorangewhiteblack on Jun 30, 2010 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
If the linked article is close to correct, then we can look forward to a great season ahead.
Personally, I like adding Ellis and Foster. I would also love Cullen and Armstrong but wonder how you can fit them under the cap. Even if the Flyers only sign a goalie and two defensemen, I think they’d compete for the Cup again.
i prefer Tallinder over Foster. Nabokov, Ellis or Mason would work for me. If they can find a way to get Colby Armstrong or Cullen here on the 3rd line, and all of that under the cap then god bless.
by bleedorangewhiteblack on Jun 30, 2010 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
isnt buying out boosh going to cost valuable cap space, even its only half a mill or so? if they were going to aquire a goalie all along i feel like they would have been better off keeping boosh and letting leighton walk. i dont see much of a difference in the two anyway. oh well, as long as we upgrade over leighton i will be more than happy
There is something about Anton Volchenkov that I really really hate, but I forget why. I think there was an incident at some point this year but im not sure what happened. First thing that comes to mind is something with carbomb
He’s a stud though. Surely we can forgive him for one dirty hit.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Jul 1, 2010 4:16 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know if I can.
Plus, he’ll get a huge amount of money somewhere else. We should be targeting the second tier of UFA defenders.
New Zealand's 4th best Philadelphia Flyers fan
That’s true, we can’t really afford him. There are teams where he could be the no. 1 that would pay him no. 1 money. Unless he wants to sign a contract for a year just for the sake of forming the most awesome defensive corps in the league, I don’t see him as an option.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Jul 1, 2010 4:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Just noticed that Ellis has his glove closed on that save in the pic. I’m pretty sure anyway. I looked at it for ages
New Zealand's 4th best Philadelphia Flyers fan
Maybe Ellis? Maybe not? Hmmm…
#1 Flyers fan in England (originally from Southeastern PA)
by Orange and Black Forever on Jul 1, 2010 9:01 AM EDT reply actions
ASF article is good, but it just doesn’t make sense to me.
first, why the hell do we sign Leighton for that money to most likely be a backup? Buying out Boosh is going to cost us $500K in cap hit and by overpaying by at least $500K for Leighton, Homer is wasting about $1MM of cap room. Not really good asset management.
I’d love to get Paul Martin or at least 2 or 3 of the other D-men, but the reality is that everyone is talking about those guys, they are going to get overpaid severely. Plus we just don’t have the budget for it.
Cullen/Armstrong. Both seem like nice additions, but once again, where is the $$ coming from? Also, why would we sign another C/LW? We need RW’s from what I can tell, so signing Cullen seems pretty stupid.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Jul 1, 2010 10:14 AM EDT reply actions
Cullen said he’s willing to play wing for a contender. right or left, a player can learn either wing.
by bleedorangewhiteblack on Jul 1, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
He’d be a good acquisition – can we afford him, do you think?
#1 Flyers fan in England (originally from Southeastern PA)
by Orange and Black Forever on Jul 1, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
probably not. i have no idea how we afford anything beyond an upgrade at goalie and signing a 5th defenseman and either resigning Coburn/getting another defenseman to replace him.
I think the most realistic option is Powe at 4th RW and Carcillo at 3rd line RW. Or maybe the other way around. Powe might work out well with JVR and Giroux. The problem is you’ve got no protection on that line. Then again JVR has size and Giroux is a maniac so maybe they dont need protection.
Either way I’d be surprised if Powe and Carcillo werent our RW’s on the 3rd and 4th line.
Id’ love for us to somehow get our hands on Marc Staal’s rights.
I think if we cant get Coburn for what he wants and the Rangers cant get Staal for what he wants. We should swap Coburn for Staal’s rights. Staal is more expensive than Coburn, but i think the issue isnt so much that they dont have the money to resign Coburn, they just dont think he’s worth the money he wants. Staal would be worth the 3.5-4 mil he wants. Thats the money I think Coburn is trying to get and he is surely not worth it.
But maybe Coburn would lower his price after he gets shipped out of philly and his options start to decrease as other defensemen get signed. If you move Coburn’s contract, and only sign an upgraded goalie and a defensemen like Tallinder or Foster, maybe they might be able to find room for Staal after moving Coburn’s contract and Boosh’s. I dont know just sptiballing without all the facts here.
by bleedorangewhiteblack on Jul 1, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
the Rangers would do the move if they feel like Staal was going to walk, because Coburn is still a good defensive acquisitoin, they dont want to lose Staal and having nothing to show for it.
by bleedorangewhiteblack on Jul 1, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Who said we’d need to buy out Boosh? His cap hit of $0.925 is less than that of the following “backups” (i.e. non-highest-paid goalies on a team with multiple goalies signed):
Rask (I know they’re shopping Thomas, but both make more than Boosh)
Budaj
Clemmensen
Roloson
Labarbera
Gustavsson
There’s no reason we can’t deal him to someone needing a backup.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
and they still will try . buyout is the option if they cant trade him.
by bleedorangewhiteblack on Jul 1, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Boucher's buyout cap hit
Because buyouts are fun.
Line 1: Original contract amount: $925,000
Line 2: Original average value per year: $925,000
Line 3: Buyout amount (2/3 total remaining value): $619,750
Line 4: Buyout amount over double years: $619,750 in 2010-11, $619,750 in 2011-12
Line 5: Buyout “savings” (Line 1 – Line 4): $305,250 in 2010-11, $0 in 2011-12
Line 6: Cap hit (Line 2 – Line 5): $619,750 in 2010-11, $0 in 2011-12
Honor is no substitute for victory.
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