Comparing James van Riemsdyk To His '07 Draft Counterparts
by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 7, 2010 2:57 PM EDT
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53 comments
With the 2010 Stanley Cup Finals being played between the Chicago Blackhawks and the Philadelphia Flyers, there are bound to be plenty of storylines. One of them is the impact the 2007 NHL Draft is having on the series, as the two teams picked first and second overall. Patrick Kane and James van Riemsdyk were selected by the Blackhawks and Flyers respectively, and both are playing in their first Final.
Because they were selected one-two in the draft, plenty of stories are being written about it. From the Flyers perspective, van Riemsdyk has constantly had to deal with comparisons to Kane since the day the Flyers drafted him. While it isn't entirely unfair due to the selections, is it really just a battle between the two of them?
This isn't an apology for van Riemsdyk - not that he needs one - but the comparison really does a disservice to both players. While it's certainly early to get a full grasp on the 2007 draft, it is worth looking at the paths the two players have taken and how they've performed once there compared to other top-10 picks from that year.
Jump to look at the 2007 draft.
There were seven forwards selected in the first ten picks that year, five of whom have played at least 55 games in the NHL. Of those five, both Kane and Sam Gagner (#6 overall) have played over 200 games as they jumped straight to the NHL immediately after being drafted. The other three are van Riemsdyk, Kyle Turris (#3 overall) and Jakub Voracek (#7 overall).
After being drafted, van Riemsdyk went to the University of New Hampshire for two years. He played a total of 67 games, compiling 28 goals and 74 points.. At the end of his second year he joined the Phantoms for 7 games where he added a goal and an assist. In all, he had 76 points in 74 games since the time he was drafted.
Prior to being drafted, he played 113 games over two years for various levels of the United States National Team Development Program, scoring 64 goals and 59 assists. Just like his performance after being drafted, van Riemsdyk is right around the point-per-game pace at 1.09. (In comparison, Kane had 102 points in 58 games during his final season with the US National Team Development Program in 05-06, good for a 1.76 ppg). At the NHL level, JVR is averaging 0.44 ppg and 2.02 pts/60.
Prior to being drafted, Kane was already a year ahead of van Riemsdyk. He had two years with the National Team, scoring 172 points (84 goals) in 121 games, good for a 1.42 ppg. The following year he went to the Ontario Hockey League where he scored 145 points in 58 games. With that as the last impression on scouts, it is no wonder he went first overall. He then jumped straight to the NHL where he has three-straight 70 point seasons. For his NHL career, Kane is at 0.94 points per game and 3.02 pts/60.
Drafted immediately after van Riemsdyk was Kyle Turris. You'll notice there are no stats for him because he spent the entire 09-10 season playing for the San Antonio Rampage of the AHL after playing 63 NHL games the year before. But at the time he was drafted, Turris had put up 193 points in 110 games in the Canadian Junior Hockey League, a tier below Major Juniors.
After being drafted, Turris went to the University of Wisconsin where he scored 35 points (11 goals) in 36 games. At the end of his collegiate season, he played 3 games for the Coyotes registering one assist before starting 08-09 in the NHL. His first year didn't go so well, as he only scored 16 points in his first 50 games. After a brief stint in the AHL (7 points in 8 games) he was recalled and added 4 points in the remaining 13 games, all four of which came in one game against the Sharks. So as this season rolled around, Phoenix kept him the AHL where he had a pretty good year, scoring 63 points in 76 games. He has a career 0.32 points per game in the NHL and 1.44 pts/60
The only other player selected in the top-10 of the 2007 NHL draft with 200 games played is Sam Gagner. Prior to being drafted, Gagner played in three separate leagues - the OPJHL, USHL, and OHL. He compiled 61 points in 69 games prior to accumulating 118 in 53 games for the London Knights. After that season, the Oilers selected him 6th overall. Like Kane, he jumped straight to the NHL and has stayed there ever since. The main difference, however, is that Gagner has never hit the 50-point plateau or scored more than 16 goals in the NHL. He has a 0.59 points per game ratio in the NHL and a 2.17 pts/60 ratio.
Voracek was drafted 7th overall after only playing 59 games in North America. He scored 86 points in the QMJHL the year before he was drafted and followed that up with a 101 point performance in his first 53 QMJHL games as a Blue Jackets prospect. In 2008-09, Voracek jumped straight from Juniors to the NHL where he chipped in 44 points in 80 games. As you can see above, he scored 50 in 81 games this year. In his NHL career, he's averaging 0.55 ppg and 2.32 pts/60.
Analysis
Of the five forwards selected in the top-10 of the 2007 NHL entry draft with at least 55 NHL games played, 3 of them had at least one season of Major Junior hockey prior to being drafted - only Kyle Turris and James van Riemsdyk had not. After being drafted, both Turris and van Riemsdyk went to the NCAAs before turning pro. If van Riemsdyk were constantly compared to Turris, he would be looked at a lot more favorably.
Instead, he's being compared to Patrick Kane who is six months older and a year more experienced. The reasons JVR is being compared to Kane are obvious - top two selections who both spent time in the U.S. Development Program - but both Turris and van Riemsdyk have similarities too. They were drafted second and third, both had about 110 games played over two years, both played well in the World Juniors tournament the year they were drafted, and both went on to college instead of Major Juniors. But a good storyline is a good storyline.
As far as all five players combined, it's clear who had the best debut. In terms of first-year NHL production per 60 minutes of ice time:
- Patrick Kane - 2.87 pts/60 (07-08)
- Sam Gagner - 2.37 pts/60 (07-08)
- Jakub Voracek - 2.25 pts/60 (08-09)
- James van Riemsdyk - 2.02 pts/60 (09-10)
- Kyle Turis - 1.47 pts/60 (08-09)
Kane is obviously very, very good. Gagner and Voracek are proving to be very solid picks while Turris is hoping to build off of a solid AHL season going forward. While van Riemsdyk can be looked at as somewhat of a disappointment, it's important to notice a few things.
First, Kane, Gagner, and Voracek spent time playing in Major Juniors prior to being drafted. Turris had only played in a lower tier of Junior Hockey while van Riemsdyk had only played in the Developmental League. Understanding this in the context of the other 1st round picks helps explain why the Flyers' brass were disappointed with his decision to not only go to college, but to stay there for two years. At this point, I have no doubt they were more worried about his development than they were rushing him to the NHL. More on that later, though.
Second, both Patrick Kane and Sam Gagner jumped straight from Canadian Major Juniors to the NHL after being drafted. They put up 2.50 and 2.23 points per game, respectively, in a highly competitive league, so the chances were good that they'd be successful. But besides that path, even Jakub Voracek spent two years playing in the Q, jumping to the NHL after putting up a 1.91 pts/g season. Meanwhile, Turris and van Riemsdyk decided to go to college.
This isn't meant to be an attack on college hockey, but looking at the 2007 draft tends to reinforce what van Riemsdyk said in 2008: "A lot of teams were suggesting I go either major junior or sign right away and maybe play in the American Hockey League, if not, try out and make the big club." It's pretty obvious that NHL clubs want their prospects playing either in the AHL or Major Juniors, even if their GMs push out quotes like the one by Paul Holmgren later in that same story.
Conclusion
This comparison shows me two things about how van Riemsdyk's development has progressed. One, he almost certainly should have started this past season in the AHL. Pretty much everyone agreed, but a lot of people - myself included - thought that he earned a spot on the team with his play in training camp. His season - while not at all a disappointment - just showed that his two years in college were not enough to prepare him for the NHL. The three players who did not attend college all played at least 68 games the year before jumping to the NHL while van Riemsdyk only played 47 (split between UNH and the AHL). For the record, he has now played in 98 games this season.
The other thing this shows is that despite having similar paths to the NHL, van Riemsdyk severely outperformed Kyle Turris' rookie year. Granted, Turris jumped a year earlier, but both players had the same workload prior to being drafted, similar World Juniors stats, and the same post-draft plans. But Turris left college after one year and went straight to the NHL where he simply was not prepared. Prior to this season, van Riemsdyk had never played more than 62 games in a season (05-06, split between U.S. under-17, U.S. under-18, and U.S. NAHL) and had played in only 67 games the past two years combined. Despite more than doubling his workload from the previous year, van Riemsdyk has recorded decent numbers this season and is still scoring in the 98th game of his season.
For these reasons, it's not fair to Patrick Kane or James van Riemsdyk that the two are compared to one another. Kane is in his own category, while van Riemsdyk (while thoroughly beating Turris up to now) is better served being compared to the other four players mentioned. As evidenced by Turris, the jump from NCAA hockey to the NHL is not an easy one, yet van Riemsdyk is more than holding his own. But he still needs to get better.
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Kane vs. JVR
You should have possibly also mentioned the context of that draft year. The Flyers had the worst record and still managed to lose the #1 pick in what I remember being described as one of the weakest drafts of the decade. Basically, you had Patrick Kane and then everyone else. The gulf between the player that was Kane and the 2nd pick, whether it was Turris or Gagner or one of the d-men selected high was huge.
Part of the disappointment of being god-awful that year was the insult to injury that we should have got Kane, but ended up with a prospect, who was good, but not elite.
I’m not saying JVR won’t some day be an elite player, he just isn’t in the same stratosphere as Kane (none of the players drafted that year are)
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
That’s entirely true. I tried to stress that Kane shouldn’t be lumped in with the rest of that draft because he’s just that much better, but there’s only so much “woe the lottery” I can stomach.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 7, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
oh, I wasn’t trying to bring up how the hockey gods apparently hated us that year, but rather to make any comparison of Kane to anybody else entirely riduculous.
It is an interesting study looking at the draft. For example, we could have drafted Del Zotto instead of Sbisa.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Jun 7, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I vaguely recall that some people thought JVR should have gone first, as a project that would end up better overall because of his size. Maybe I’m mistaken.
Hmm, looking back, that draft is pretty weak. Mostly good, not great players. Defense looks pretty bad—I think Karl Alzner has more NHL experience than the rest of the 07 class combined, even though he’s only played about 50 NHL games.
A quick look through shows me aside from Turris, maybe Pacioretty is the only other guy kind of comparable to JVR (I only looked at Americans though, since Canadians are almost certainly going to play in major juniors, I’d guess).
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Red Line Station: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
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by red army line on Jun 7, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
no, there was a brief moment weeks prior to the draft when JVR was considered on par with Kane for whatever ridiculous reason, but that notion was quickly dispelled. I do remember as well though, that the next 10 guys were all roughly equivalent in terms of potential. The only one that hasn’t played in the NHL is Hickey (god, LA is loaded on D if Hickey is actually any good).
*I do realize Hamill has only played one game.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Jun 7, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Random info
I graduated high school with Hams.
"But yeah…like CC…I harbour no ill will." - VancityDan
by Chuckles Canuckles on Jun 8, 2010 4:50 AM EDT up reply actions
That draft was projected to be one of the weakest in recent history.
What’s the deal with Alzner? Will he be on the team next year?
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
I’m more interested in Angelo Esposito. I remember he was a projected top 10 pick who basically fell into the Penguins lap at 20, who they traded to Atlanta as part of the deal that brought Hossa to Pittsburgh…
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by HockeyOutsiders on Jun 7, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
And is now considered a bust.
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 7, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Really? I did not know that.
Managing Editor - HockeyOutsiders.com
by HockeyOutsiders on Jun 7, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
He still hasn’t played an NHL game and he only played in 12 AHL games last year. I have no idea why he only played 12 games – maybe he went to Europe? – but yeah, he’s no longer highly regarded.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 7, 2010 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
He tore his ACL in February of 2009 and again in November, so he’s trying to recover from that.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
Ok, that makes a lot of sense.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 7, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
What’s the deal with Alzner? Will he be on the team next year?
He’s a lock, pretty much.
Yeah, ATL in hindsight got ripped off on the Hossa deal. Hossa and Dupuis for a bust, a 1st rounder, and Christiensen, right? Yikes.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Red Line Station: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
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by red army line on Jun 7, 2010 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
At least it looked better when Esposito was actually supposed to be good.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
матовая Клими, Михал нуивирт ваш папа теперь
Red Line Station: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
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by red army line on Jun 8, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Colby Armstrong was also in that deal, but yeah, it looks bad.
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by HockeyOutsiders on Jun 8, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
JVR and Kane are good buddies, but I wonder how much they’re communicating during this series. Not much I imagine.
In Latvia, they're rooting for Bartulis' team, the Filadelfijas Flaieri!
I can’t imagine their captains, who apparently are buddies from VAN2010 as well, would let them.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Red Line Station: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
(note name change)
by red army line on Jun 7, 2010 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Major Junior vs. NCAA
Alright, so clearly choosing Juniors over college would’ve been a better development path, but let me present all you male members of the board with a multiple choice question:
Which is better?
a) nubile young co-eds at a U.S. university
b) inbred Sascatchewan farm-girls
Screw the hockey career, I’m going to college!!!!
Not to mention, that JVR is an American kid from NJ who developed under the US national system. There are scads of players in the NHL who played their college hockey in the NCAA. This is one of the most overblown arguments going, not to mention that when I played college hockey half the team was Canadien.
The bigger thing for JVR is his potential right now. He continues to have substantial upside. He played a complete season, and has held his own pretty well under the circumstances, while playing 3rd line minutes. He makes mistakes, but also has flashes of brilliance. The places where he could get better are completely workable, mainly in his strength and explosiveness training off season, learning how to forecheck better, and in learning the defensive system and responsibilities required of him.
One other thing
Geoff,
As usual, fantastic write up.
Interesting read
One of the things you touched on is whether this draft supports the position that players develop faster if they go to major juniors instead of college after being drafted.
But Kane/Gagner/Voracek all had played major juniors before they got drafted, so like you say, they’re basically a year or more ahead.
Only JVR and Turis had to face a post-draft decision. Given that incredibly significant sample size of one, it looks like the guy who spent two years in college actually developed faster/more/better than the guy who left after one year.
I don’t suppose that in a few minutes of work you could come up with another couple dozen pairs who were picked within a few picks of each other and had similar pre-draft histories but chose a different route post-draft, so we could generalize better on how to develop fastest post-draft.
Yeah, that’s tough because almost all first-round picks are either selected from Major Juniors, NCAAs, or Europe. Not many are picked out of the USHL, US National team, or lower juniors.
Quick scan of forwards who were Top-10 picks since 2002 who weren’t already playing in Europe, Major Juniors, or NCAAs:
- Kyle Okposo (#7 2006, USHL) – Spent a year and a half in college (51 points in 58 games), then left and finished the 07-08 season (after having played 18 games in college) playing half a season in AHL (28 points in 35 games) and 9 games in the NHL (5 points). So he took a path similar to JVR, but got half a season of playing three separate levels under his belt before his first full NHL season where he had 39 points in 65 games (0.60 pts/g; 2.00 pts/60 the first year, career 0.62 pts/g; 1.94 pts/60)
- Jack Skille (#7 2005, US Nat’l Team) – had two years with National Team (just like JVR) prior to going to college for two years (just like JVR) where he had 40 points in 67 games. He might have left slightly early (only 26 games his second year of college) as he played 12 AHL games (8 points) before having his first full year after leaving college split between the NHL and AHL. He played 71 AHL games, scoring 37 points and 16 NHL games (5 points). He’s still in the AHL, only playing 14 NHL games since that first year.
- Blake Wheeler (#5 2004, High School) – Wheeler was drafted out of high school and played in the USHL during the lockout before going to college for three years. He jumped straight from college to the NHL at age 22 and scored 45 points in 81 games (0.56 pts/g; 2.43 pts/60). After two NHL seasons, he’s at 0.51 pts/g and 2.07 pts/60.
Really, Skille isn’t even in the same class as Okposo as Okposo was a scorer in college. Skille is still in the AHL while Okposo is having a solid start to his NHL career, but he spent a year at three different levels. Wheeler spent three years in college and jumped to the NHL two years older than JVR. Still, if you were to plot these players on the full-season debuts:
- Patrick Kane – 2.87 pts/60 (07-08, 19 yrs old)
- Blake Wheeler – 2.43 pts/60 (08-09, 22 yrs old)
- Sam Gagner – 2.37 pts/60 (07-08, 18 yrs old)
- Jakub Voracek – 2.25 pts/60 (08-09, 19 yrs old)
- James van Riemsdyk – 2.02 pts/60 (09-10, 20 yrs old)
- Kyle Okposo – 2.00 pts/60 (07-08, 19 yrs old)
- Jack Skille – 1.56 pts/60 (07-08, 20 yrs old) * Small sample
- Kyle Turis – 1.47 pts/60 (08-09, 19 yrs old)
Players in italics went to college after being drafted, and while Wheeler finds himself the second most productive, he was also two years older than anybody else when he made his NHL debut.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 7, 2010 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t like comparing across years though, because 1) Jack Skille was picked in between Gilbert Brule (didn’t have a good year until this past one) and Devin Setoguchi (is becoming a pretty solid player; and 2) Blake Wheeler was drafted after Andrew Ladd who was drafted after scoring 75 points in 71 games (in the WHL), followed it up with 45 points in 65 WHL games, and has never had higher than 0.60 pts/game when playing at least 40 games in any level since.
It’s interesting to look at developmentally wise, but I’m not comfortable using Skille and Okposo as evidence of NCAA hockey being inferior. While I certainly feel that it is, I don’t have enough data to support it.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 7, 2010 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Hahaha
You’re a sucker, just like me. Someone says “Hey, I bet you can’t find data on this…” and now you’re stuck spending the next two hours digging up the data.
Thanks for the effort. It’s interesting stuff to think about.
By the way, I’m not going to be able to reciprocate just yet and answer your question on my fanpost.
But I’m working on a rewrite in the comment section that answers your questions and more.
Sweet. Take your time, I won’t be around all day tomorrow, so no rush.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 7, 2010 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions
haha, yes I am. But I only spent an hour doing that so HA!
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 7, 2010 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the other problem as well is the depth of the talent pool. Canada’s most gifted athletes generally want to play hockey; it’s “their” sport. The most talented athletes in Latin America are generally in futbol or baseball (as a regional comparison). In the US? I’d place hockey fourth at best, behind (in no particular order) football, baseball, and basketball. Your multi-sport talents (the Bo Jackson and Deion Sanders types) aren’t as likely to wind up in hockey in the US. My gut feeling based on this is that if you took the average talent level across the various non-professional hockey leagues, they’d be close to even, but the spikes of top talent will be higher in the Canadian leagues.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
Anybody want to be angry?
- pick the next year…. Drew Doughty.
Good God if he was also on this team we’d never lose a game. That said Prongs probably would not be here, and the team would be built very differently. But still…
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
The 2008 draft is looking ridiculous, especially on D.
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Red Line Station: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
(note name change)
by red army line on Jun 7, 2010 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
JVR isn’t a d-bag who beats up taxi drivers over .20 so I think I’d rather have him on my team. He may not be as skilled on the ice as Kane at the moment but at least he’s more respectable, doesn’t have a criminal record, and can potentially match or surpass Kane given enough time at the NHL level.
Actually, and I really hope that I am wrong, JVR will never be as good as Kane and truthfully the feelings of one cabbie weighed against the success of my hockey team really takes a backseat. No pun intended!
Just Call Me "M"!
by M from Pdaddy on Jun 7, 2010 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Let's give him time
GP 80 G 20 A 28 P 48
GP 79 G 11 A 23 P 34
GP 81 G 23 A 19 P 42
GP 79 G 23 A 23 P 46
GP 81 G 11 A 20 P 31
GP 74 G 17 A 22 P 39
GP 82 G 13 A 15 P 28
GP 73 G 15 A 19 P 34
What are these numbers? These are the rookie seasons of:
Simon Gagne
Mike Richards
Jeff Carter
Steven Stamkos
Eric Staal
Rick Nash
Vincent Lecavelier
James van Riemsdyk
There is no doubting JVR has had a tough year, particularly from the mid-point onwards. Before that point, he was excelling in all aspects of play, creating chances, owning a positive plus/minus and was the only rookie above a point per game. Since that point and up till the playoffs, he was near invisible. It has been the first time in his life that he has had to face an 82 game season. And he clearly couldn’t handle it.
Rick Nash scored 41 goals in his sophomore season after only 17 in his rookie campaign. If Nash was a Flyer, at the start of that sophomore season fans would want him to be a Phantom. Eric Staal put on 100 points in his next NHL season. If Staal was a Flyer, some fans would be happy to chuck him into a trade for a young unproven goaltender. Steven Stamkos won the Rocket Richard after some people decided to label him a bust due to his lack of impact in the rookie years. If Stamkos was a Flyer…
I understand, we aren’t used to this. JVR is the highest pick the Flyers have ever earnt (i.e. not traded for). Read that again: in the entire history of the Flyers, JVR is the highest pick the Flyers have ever earnt. He’s got a big frame, a lot of speed to go with it, and some great puck handling. But like most guys that need to fill out a big frame, it’s going to take him time. We need to give him time and groom him to be our star winger at some point in the future.
Mike Richards and Jeff Carter had bad sophomore seasons to follow that rookie season (it was that season after all) and people did call them busts. Luckily the team was so awful that they couldn’t be given blame like JVR has been.
I’m not saying van Riemsdyk has done well. His season hasn’t been impressive by any margin. I’m saying that one can’t judge a player on his rookie season. So many great players have been terrible in their rookie season only to have shown their true worth later. And he’s even shown his potential this season: 20 games into the season he had 19 points, and then later he had a 9 game stretch with 10 points. He just needs to translate that into a consistent effort. And considering this was his first experience in a professional hockey league, I believe there’s a chance he can in the future.
One final thing: all the interviews of him in the offseason were about him trying to make the team. That’s what he was aiming for. He got that straight away, absolutely ripping up training camp and the early part of the season. Now it’s time for him to aim to be able to endure an 82 game season.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Jun 7, 2010 10:10 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
oh…my final stats for JVR are wrong. His season ended at 35 points in 78 games…
by PursuitOfLappyness on Jun 7, 2010 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting, but it is hard to compare stats when some of those players were on teams that quite frankly couldn’t compete in a beer league. I am totally on board for waiting it out, but I am also a firm believer that JVR should have been in the AHL for at least one full year for no other reason then to live the daily life of a professional hockey player in a less competitive league. Vermont is a nice program but not playing major junior is a serious drop off in competition.
Just Call Me "M"!
by M from Pdaddy on Jun 7, 2010 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe, but then again I think these high picks would get more TOI, right? JVR must’ve basically been a 4th liner, right? I’d imagine Nash went directly to the top-6, Richards and Carter to a checking turned scoring line, Stamkos and Staal both top-6 too I think.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Red Line Station: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
(note name change)
by red army line on Jun 7, 2010 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions
But top six on the Lightning or Blue Jackets is still like being the tallest midgets. He has a raw upside no doubt, but I am just of the belief he would have greatly benefited from being in the AHL.
Just Call Me "M"!
by M from Pdaddy on Jun 7, 2010 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
But top 6 of the Lightning and Blues get lots of PP time something JVR didn’t get. See my post below. Stamkos this year netted 24 PP goals getting 4:39 of PP time. Rick Nash’s 40 goal sophomore season he netted 19 of those goals on the PP getting 4:34 of PP time. JVR won’t get that opportunity because he is on a good team and a really good PP team.
Oh stop with the making sense shit man, can’t you see I am on a roll here.
Just Call Me "M"!
by M from Pdaddy on Jun 8, 2010 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
There was quite a bit of line juggling, but yeah for most of the year he occupied a 3rd line role and was given roughly on average 12 minutes on ice with a handful of sub-10 minute games.
I do think he would have benefited from the AHL, but more so that he could enjoy trying to dominate for a long season playing top line minutes. Jon Matsumoto had good point production so I would imagine them two together being quite productive in the AHL.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Jun 7, 2010 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Everyone here has brought up a lot of great points, but I guess I see one more angle to this stuff than others do…. I think it’s possible JVR needed that 2 year buffer at UNH just to grow up enough as a person to handle everything he would deal with being an NHL player. If I’m not mistaken, people who play in the US National Team Development program live with host families, so my personal impression is that you don’t have to be quite as self-sufficient as someone playing Juniors in Canada would have to be. It’s just a thought, obviously I don’t know any more than you guys do. But wasn’t it an issue that they wanted him to come to training camp in 2008, and he said he wasn’t ready yet, or something to that effect?
couple more things
Nice write up Geoff, you covered both sides very objectively. Here are a couple more points.
Alexei Cherepanov was also discussed as being a top tier on par with JVR and Kane. He broke Ovi’s rookie scoring record in the RSL. He fell to 17th overall were he was a “steal” for the Rangers. However he tragically died on the after collapsing on the bench at the age of 19 before ever making it to the NHL. He was the guy I want the Flyers to pick the next Russian superstar, thankfully we didn’t’.
Another thing JVR doesn’t play really at all on the PP. Where as Kane does and a lot with very skilled personal. Kane has scored 29 pts on the PP this season good for 33 % of his scoring and gets over 3 minutes of PP time per game. Last year 35 PP pts good for 50% of his scoring and in his rookie season another 28 PP pts good for almost 40 % of his scoring. That is 92 of his career 230 pts of the PP 40%. JVR has 7 PP points this season only 20 % of his scoring about and average only 1:24 of PP time per game, close to 1/3 less than Kane. JVR’s time on the PP significantly dropped after the coaching change as well adding into his lack of production towards the end of the year. Not a really a knock on JVR but the more of a plus to the teams PP depth. Our PP was ranked 2nd at that end of the year I believe.
JVR also scored some big goals. 6 GW on a team that made the playoffs as we all know on the last day last shot of a shootout. One less game winner and we might have been talking about firing and trading our entire team rather than winning game 6 of the Stanley Cup finals right now. He also scored arguably the biggest goal of the playoff the 3-1 goal game 7 vs. Boston spear heading that amazing comeback.
Also JVR staying in college and not coming right onto Roster really helps the flow of our salary cap. Kane is hitting RFA this season, JVR will be on his rookie contract for another 2 years allowing us to keep together this team longer. If we had Kane I am not sure we would have pulled that deal for Pronger because of the cap ramifications. They way everything worked out this year it is hard to complain about the past and go through all the what’s and if’s and should of and would of’s.
Bottom line: Kane is better right now and probably will be for most of their careers. Only time will tell if JVR can develop into another RIck Nash type player that is who he reminds me of most. They have similar bodies type and similar skills being about to take the puck to the net with size and speed down the wing. The only the RIck Nash has that JVR doesn’t is another 20lbs of muscle. JVR has to bulk up more again like he did last summer this offseason to be truely effective at this level. Oh yeah I forgot Nash also has 30 plus goals too hopefully JVR can get that added to his resume next year as well.
Very well said. I would just caution against saying Kane has an advantage due to his PP time (I don’t think you said that specifically, so much as implied it) because it’s more likely that he earned the PP time due to his talent. I mean, it’s not easy getting PP time with Sharp, Toews, Hossa, Byfuglien, Brouwer, and Versteeg. All of those guys averaged 1:55 PPTOI/G or more.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 8, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Our team is very deep with talent when JVR joined. He will have to wait his turn as a rookie to get his PP time. Kane didn’t have to wait because the team was bad and he was looked at as the answer. The Flyers are good to damn good and JVR’s role is not to turn the franchise around and be the face of franchise but to add secondary scoring on the 3rd line. I would have liked to have seen better numbers like 50 pts but 35 is not that far off considering the teams offense as a whole had a down year. But 3rd line guys who can score 20 or more goals in 10 – 12 minutes of even strength time is not that bad.
Sharp had a similar problem when he was a Flyer do much depth and he got buried on the depth chart not getting to opportunity to realize his full potential. He was basically 3rd to 4th liner here but when giving the opportunity to play with top 6 talent Chicago he became the perfect complement.
Yes we shouldn’t forget that this was the Flyers’ second worst season (regular season I mean) in the last 15 years. So everyone’s stats suffered as a result.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Jun 9, 2010 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Kane’s rookie year, the ‘Hawks were tied for 9th in the West, 3 points out of the playoffs. They weren’t that bad. And he only had the 5th most TOI/G on the team that year, behind Sharp, Toews, Havlat, and Lang. He was a big part of the team his rookie year, but I still think you’re overemphasizing his advantage.
We don’t disagree, I just think you’re taking Kane down a notch to make JVR look better, which a) isn’t fair to Kane and b) isn’t necessary to make JVR look better. Kane still scored 2.32 ESPTS/60 his rookie year, JVR scored 1.72. Kane was still much better, even without the power play time.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 9, 2010 1:50 AM EDT up reply actions
For fun
Even-strength points per 60 during their rookie years:
- Jakub Voracek – 2.46
- Blake Wheeler – 2.43
- Patrick Kane – 2.32
- Sam Gagner – 1.96
- James van Riemsdyk – 1.72
- Kyle Okposo – 1.71
- Kyle Turris – 0.76
Take out power play time, and JVR is in the same spot as he was before. Yeah, Patrick Kane slips a bit and Voracek leaps up there, but it has no effect on JVR’s numbers.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 9, 2010 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Very good points. I too think that JVR’s potential upside is Rick Nash. And I’d be very happy with a Rick Nash!
by PursuitOfLappyness on Jun 8, 2010 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions
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