Missed shots, Shot percentage and PDO.

After my initial idea on posting something about the Flyers shooting for 2009-2010, it took me so long to write this. Deciding what exactly to show and how to present it was extremely difficult, and I was probably overwhelmed. There is a lot of quality information at Behind the Net, and anyone at all statistically inclined should head over there and just be amazed at the amount of data that is collected for NHL players. Try and do something with it, I dare you.

That being said, I managed to limit analysis to three areas, which are admittedly much simpler than I had set out to do

• Shots on target to missed shots ratio
• 2009-2010 shooting percentage difference to career shooting percentage
• 2009-2010 PDO and 2008-2009 PDO

Where's that puck gone, Jeff?

I sorted the players into the lines they played with mostly, as it makes the most sense for PDO. The SH/MS and PDO data represent ES numbers only, whereas the SH% is from all situations.

SH/MS: We all know Jeff Carter misses the net about as often as a shot goes through Leighton's five hole (couldn't help myself), but he also takes a LOT of shots. To look at the amount of shots that a player took that hit the net compared to the amount of shots that missed the net, I divided the good shots by the bad shots. The resulting value represents the number of good shots a player would take before they missed the net.

For example, Mike took 2.59 good shots to every 1 bad shot. For some reason, I couldn't find any data for Asham, Betts or Lappy. Sample size might be an issue for the bottom two forwards and bottom four defenseman.

Shooting %: Quite a few Flyers seemed to have off years regarding goal-scoring e.g. Gagne, so to see the influence of shot percentage I subtracted career SH% from 2009-2010 SH%. Positive values indicate the last season was better than their career for SH%, negative values means worse SH% than career average. Again, some of these players will have a sample size issue. And it's probably a crude measure, but hey, it's my fanpost!

PDO: For PDO, please read this first, PDO And What It Means.(h/t to GoPens!)

So PDO is the sum of a team's ES SH% and ES SV%, and can be applied to individual players. If a player has a high PDO, it's more than likely unsustainable and going to come down. If a player has a low PDO, then you should expect a return to around 1000 and an increase in performance.

PDO can loosely reflect talent. Pronger could be expected to maintain a PDO over 1000 because he is increasing scoring chances for and decreasing scoring chances against, whereas Parent is more likely to do the opposite.

The reason I included PDO values is that 2008-2009 a lot of the Flyers had very good years, but regressed in 2009-2010. Comparing PDO's between the two years could help explain this, and may provide an idea about what to expect for 2010-2011.

OMG IT'S A CHART!

Key: Orange = good, yellow = bad (of course).

SH/MS: The good - Carcillo(!), Briere, Pronger and Krajicek(!)

Briere should be praised for taking so many shots but still hitting the net more times than not. Carcillo should be praised for being Carcillo but still hitting the net more often than not. Pronger is really impressive too. How many times did he hit the net from behind the defensive face-off dots? Krajicek only took 50 shots total, but has the highest ratio of any Flyer. Potential sniper here?

 The bad - Carter, Leino, Coburn, Bartulis and Parent

Carter (sighs), no one is surprised right? Leino had a terrible regular season. 108 shots, 45 missed the net completely. Let's hope we see playoff Leino for all of 2010-2011. Coburn is also pretty bad at hitting the net. But we all knew that too, right? Another thing for him to add to his to-improve-on list. Bartulis: 42 shots, 19 misses. Parent: 38 shots, 15 misses. I can visualise a BSH collective facepalm. That is baaaaad.

Shot percentage difference:

The Good: Mike, Carcillo(!), Betts, Krajicek(!)

Not much to say here, except reinforce my Krajicek suggestion from above.  A 5% increase for Betts is ridiculous though, I don't expect we'll see that again.

The bad: Gagne, Hartnell, Lappy, Leino, Carle.

A -3.8% for Gags, that's roughly 4 less goals per 100 shots, or 1 less goal every 25. Gagne took 183 shots, so if I'm doing my maths right, that's 7 goals. How much better does 58gm, 24g sound for Gags? (and I can think of at least two that he should have had). If my maths for Gags was right, then Hartnell should have an extra 3 goals, but 17 still isn't a great total. Again, Leino had a rough regular season. Lappy's goals were clearly being stolen by Betts. Carle would also have another 2-3 goals.

Take what you want from those numbers, I don't really know what "rules" I'm breaking by doing this.

PDO:

The good: The 2008-2009 Flyers

The bad: The 2009-2010 Flyers.

Just look at all those high numbers in 2008-. Mike, Carter, Briere, Gagne, Hartnell, Kimmo, Parent all had unsustainably high PDO levels. We should have expected a drop in production from them all.

Compare that to the 2009- numbers, and they are nearly all on the low side, but closer to 1000. Perhaps we will see a bounce-back from some of the top-six, but certainly not to 2008- levels.

Briere is an interesting case, if he is able to have another year of high PDO, it might be reflecting a talent effect. So worth the huge sums of money he's getting paid!

Whoever is playing with JVR and Giroux this year, let's call him player Z, should also have a decent season along with our young guns who will improve. 

Timonen and Coburn should also have a bounce-back if they play together.

If we can use PDO to predict the 2010-2011 season, then it should be better. SImply put, either the guys will score more goals, or they'll have less goals scored against them. We can only hope.

I can't believe I've finished it. Sorry for the crude analysis, I just wanted it done.