Solution To Long-Term Cap Issue
by Flyersfan94 on Aug 25, 2010 1:59 PM EDT
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PrintSo I know that there has been a lot of discussions about how to fix the cap problems. There have been people suggesting moving Carter, to moving Danny Briere and Scott Hartnell. Some even went as far as saying moving Kimmo Timonen, which I believe is ridiculous. This is my solution to this whole issue.
The first option should be Jeff Carter. Carter is a phenomenal player don't get me wrong, but it just seems that the right thing to do is move him. With Leino, Giroux and Zherdev up for new contracts after this season, I think Carter is the easiest way to keep the core together and have some cap space. Assume the Flyers give Giroux 4, Leino 2 and Zherdev 3.5, that's an increase of 5.8 million right there. So how can the Flyers afford to pay Carter around 6 million with these new contracts. I would rather have Giroux, Leino and Zherdev rather than Carter and Giroux. Plus Carter will bring you a lot in return (high draft picks and good forward prospects). Although, should Carter expload for a 40+ goal season, and Briere and Hartnell have sub-par seasons again, I would move one of them. Hartnell needs to get to at least 20 goals this year if he wants to be kept around, and Briere should hit 30 goals with at least 65 points.
The other thing I see happening is one of Andrej Meszaros, Braydon Coburn and Matt Carle getting moved. I thing one will be the odd-man out so the other you defensemen can step up. I think Carle is going to stay here for awhile because of his incredible breakout year with Chris Pronger helping him out. But he needs to keep playing at that caliber. Coburn really needs to have a bounce-back year. He needs to show that he is the playoff Coburn and not the regular season one. Meszaros will need to prove he just needed a change of scenarie to get back on track. He needs to become the player he was back in Ottawa. I think one of them will be moved with in the next two seasons, and it will also depend on the developement of Oskars Bartulis, Kevin Marshall and Marc-Andre Bourdon.
I would also just like to thank Bill Meltzer for commenting on my work in his blog on hockeybuzz.com. It was really cool for a professional writer to say your work was "one of the more interesting ones" on this site. Anyways thank you and it means a lot to me because I am hoping to be writer one day. I'd be glad to give you my e-mail if you had any constructive critism to give me.
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I’m hoping to be hockey player one day. “Critism” #1: work on your grammar and spelling.
Anyways thank you and it means a lot to me because I am hoping to be writer a one day. I’d be glad to give you my e-mail if you had any constructive critism to give me.
Well, if you want to be a good writer you’ll have to slow it down and take your time. I’m no expert by any means but I can pick out a ton of grammar errors in your right up.
I had a professor in college tell me once that she would read and re-write papers as many times as it took to get it right. Obviously, if you’re in journalism your time frame is limited since deadlines come and go, but with a piece like this (if you want to become a better writer) you can take more time. Re-read it and/or have a friend/family member, whom ever read it and go over to it to make it the best you possibly can.
Just don’t be afraid get down on harsh criticism, it’s going to happen, you just have to be able to take it in stride and learn from it.
by grucifer on Aug 26, 2010 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I wouldn’t jump to adding Leino and Zherdev to the “core” yet until I see what they do this year.
Other options
Danny B is getting past his prime and is injury prone he might be in buyout territory he is owed 19 million over 4 years after this season.
Hartnell better step up his 4.2 million cap was bit much for such a poor year. Penalities can become infuriating. His buy would be only 6.9 million after this season.
Before we go jumping the gun and decide to salary dump our second leading scorer and best goal scorer there other options we just have to wait and see who earns it this season.
Buying out Danny Briere or Scott Hartnell
Would be worse than the Randy Jones fiasco. Why would you take a large cap hit for a phantom player that you’ve bought out? Makes zero sense.
Sorry to be like this but I have to emphasize that this is a horrible horrible idea. Keep Carter but destroy the team…
Also if you trade Carter it won’t be a salary dump unless Homer goes crazy and pushes us all over the salary again. Even if we are over the salary there should be enough bidders for Carter at the draft to make his value go up, but of course Homer would probably wait till late July when everyone’s teams are set and the big market teams have spent all their money.
And if leading the league in playoff points is past his prime then whatever I’ll take it.
Simon Gagne may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home, but at the end of the day, he will always be a Philadelphia Flyer.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Aug 26, 2010 5:14 AM EDT up reply actions
As far as the Danny being past his prime discussion, I’m with you on being plenty happy with his playoff performance this year. But beyond that, to me he seems to do better when he’s away from Carter. I’m just wondering how much he was held back by being on Carter’s wing. Now, I’m not using that as a “Trade Carter!” statement; I’m just saying that looking back on it, I think Danny and Carts are a little bit incompatible. I think Danny would prefer to cycle the puck more, while Carter has a tendency to take a lot of shots, hogging them to a point where it starts to detract from his linemates. I think Danny will do a little better this year if he’s not on Carter’s line, but that’s just my opinion.
by DragonGirl0583 on Aug 26, 2010 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Other option
Sign Carter for 12+ years with lots of money up front get the cap hit down below 5 so he actually saves us money compared to now. I guess we have to see how bad the Kovalchuk knock down years are if he signs long term with NJ.
Carter with a cap hit of 4 million is too good to pass up. Richards and Carter will then have a combined hit of less than Ovi.
This really doesn’t address the whole picture. Your solution for the long term is basically trading Carter and one of Meszaros, Coburn, and Carle. So…..
-How long is long term?
-What positions are you attempting to address by trading one of those 3 dmen?
-What positions are you looking to get as returns in those two trades?
-How are you addressing the declining performance of the older players versus their cap hits as time moves forward i.e. Briere, Kimmo, Pronger (look at the ages their contracts are up, they could be issues in the long term as far as productivity versus cap hit goes)?
-What will be the positions we need to focus on in 3 years, 5 years, etc?
-How do you propose trading players with NTC/NMC contracts such as Briere and Hartnell
There are several other questions I could list as well. Your subject line lead me to believe there would be a little bit more analysis here. At the very least a definition of what you mean by long term, and more than suggesting trading one of Carter/Harts/Briere and one of Meszaros/Coburn/Carle. If you are going to quote someone praising your work, I would expect a bit more from the fanpost from an analysis perspective, at the very least some capgeek scenarios, with roster count, and different years moving forward with positions of need as they move along.
Is this the right room for an argument?
Explanation
One: Gagne was moved with an NTC
Two: When Pronger and Kimmon become less effective, two of Carle, Meszaros and Coburn will be better and Marshall, Bartulis and Bourdon will hopefully be ready, if not you hang on to all three.
Three: The Flyers need to address the forward position for the long term (i.e. letting one big name go and stocking up on young talent)
Four: Every trade should help the long term forwards and short term goaltending.
Five: It’s long term because you stock up on young talent and the Flyers already have good defensive and goaltending prospects.
Look I wasn’t going to write a 2 hour article addressing every single thing in the future, just the basic steps I would do it.
Plus I wasn’t saying he was praising my work, I just found it cool that he mentioned, you would be excited too if a proffesional writer mentioned your work, and if you realize i seperated it from the actual article.
1) Gagne was on an expiring contract and I don’t think anyone was happy with the return. Is your plan just a salary dump if you wanted to dump Harts or Briere?
2) Pronger is a HOFer, you can’t replace his talent or production with Meszaros, Coburn, or Carle. Pronger’s and Timonen’s don’t exactly grow on trees. Once you lose them, you lost your legitimate number 1 dmen, and personally I don’t view any one else on our roster as a Pronger, there may be another Timonen, but I think he’d be almost as hard to replace.
3) Obviously they need to address their forwards long term. Read any thread here during the off season, it has been brought up by myself and others continually.
4) Agreed to extent, but again, I think you’ll see this in almost every thread on the site.
5) That doesn’t answer my question of what timeline you are addressing. Obviously stock piling prospects deals with the long term, but then what’s the plan short or mid term; or are you just skipping that? Is trading Carter bringing back any salary with it, or just prospects and picks?
My complaint is what you posted here is a regurgitation of all the topic threads that Geoff and Travis have posted, and ideas that have been brought up ad nauseum by the commentors including myself. I was excited at the title of this fan post b/c I expected at least an original view point from it, or a new way to look at everything, or the jumping point for a new analysis. I’m not saying you needed all the answers in here, I just expected something original. Usually fanposts cover topics that stem from the normal threads but don’t get the light they deserved to be discussed at length, or topics that aren’t brought up by the writers or the commentors during the normal threads. This is literally nothing I haven’t read 100 times before on here. Though maybe this has motivated me to go roaming in to long term possibilities and cap scenarios if I have a slow day.
I don’t want to rain on your parade, I was just disappointed. Though I just ran through your activity on here, and it seems like you stick to the fanposts mostly anyway; so maybe you don’t read a lot of the everyday threads, and use this site as a sounding board for your ideas, which is fine, I’ll just skip by your fanposts in the future.
Also, you didn’t separate the praise from the article, you just used the jump. The jump is simply a formatting tool which makes browsing on mobile devices easier for the posts. It allows the reader to get a sense of what the whole post will be about without having to view the entire article if you use a jump. Yours was your entire article, followed by the shout out after the jump.
Is this the right room for an argument?
by DLJr on Aug 25, 2010 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Fair Enough
I’m sorry that I dissapointed, but it is original to an extent. I said that the Flyers need to dump one of Hartnell and Briere or let Carter walk. Plus even if the Flyers don’t take back Zherdev and Leino, they’ll have to bring in other guys for around the same, so I was just saying anyway you look at it they’ll have problems if they want to have Carter, Leino, Giroux and Zherdev.
by Flyersfan94 on Aug 25, 2010 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t disagree with anything you’ve written really, I was just surprised this was all that was in the fanpost. You know it’s okay to spend 2 hours or longer on one, it usually makes for a good read. You asked for some criticism, granted not from me, but that was my criticism. If you hope to be a writer, take more pride in your work, don’t just write something “really fast” and post it on the site. When you get an idea, take a day to flush it out, do some research, make sure it’s something that hasn’t been discussed so much on the rest of the site, and if it is, do your best to make it your own or put a new spin or analysis to the idea. Those are just my suggestions, take it for what it is, you can ignore me if you like. I didn’t mean to come off as harsh, but I just found the material lacking given the title of the fanpost and previous discussions on the site.
Is this the right room for an argument?
You can spend flipping ages on a fanpost and have hardly any comments :[
Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.
This is true, but I rec’d yours, and enjoyed the read. Even though you might not have had many comments, your fanpost was vastly more valuable as far as time spent reading for me. Hope that makes you feel a little better. Plus this fanpost was literally what he said in his response to Chris’s fanpost titled “2011 and Carter”. Simple fanposts that regurgitate ideas that have been the source of multiple debates on here with out a lot of supporting facts always create more discussion b/c there is more room for emotion and blind opinion.
A value of a fanpost is not measured by comments alone ;)
Plus you always have the hater panda in your back pocket!!!
Is this the right room for an argument?
i had the same criticisms
it felt like that post on BGN from that journalist from Utah. Fine, but nothing really new. I’ve read this “solution” a few times now, and while this particular piece is perfectly fine, it shows the writer has to go a ways before a Pulitzer.
That’s not a bad thing, judging from your screen name Flyersfan94 you’re pretty young. Work hard, take pride, check for grammar, and read up on everything related to your topic that you can — never regurgitate, it makes people skim.
As far as this piece goes, I take it as a good summary of the oft-repeated points that one of our big contracts will have to move between now and this time next year.
I think Carter should be traded – not because he’s not valuable (he is), but with the way this team is currently constructed, he’s kind of unnecessary, as we saw in the postseason. If he could be traded for lots of value (although I’m not a GM, I think this is definitely possible), then it should happen.
However, the more I pay attention to Holmgren’s view of the roster and his hints regarding Carter, the more I’m coming to accept the fact that Carter’s not going anywhere.
Not to say that speculating a roster sans Carter should be stopped, but I think we as fans should be realistic and realize that, more than likely, Carter is going to be locked up to a long term deal eventually. I just hope it’s not one that drastically overpays him.
I don’t see Briere or Hartnell going anywhere, just because they’ll be very difficult to move for anything of value. Then again, that didn’t stop Holmgren from getting almost nothing for Gagne when he backed himself into a corner, so who knows.
That leaves the defense. I feel like someone is going to get moved during the next offseason, most likely either Carle or Coburn. Holmgren must be very high on Meszaros, which is why I don’t see him leaving. If he’s bad this year, his trade value will drop further and he might be near-impossible to move. And if he’s good, I think Holmgren will see him as the future of this defense. That’s the only way the deal makes sense.
There is one idea that’s been bouncing around in my head, and it would semi-explain some of Holmgren’s moves this offseason. Pure speculation, and it’s a little “out there”, but here goes. What if this entire “load up on defense” plan is a roundabout way to combine regular season success with finally getting that goalie to help us win a cup?
Let me elaborate. As we saw last season, having only four competent defensemen kills you in the regular season, because it’s an 82 game marathon and you have to give people rest. In the playoffs though, you could survive by leaning on your top-4 (if they are good enough) for most of the minutes. What if the plan is to roll through the first 2/3rds of the regular season with 5 high-paid defensemen, rack up the points, and then at the deadline, deal one of them in a package for a goalie like Vokoun? You stay under the cap, still have a 3rd pairing of O’Donnell-Walker that’s not awful, and now you have a goalie for the stretch run and postseason, when defensive depth isn’t quite as important.
You immediately become a Cup favorite, plus you dump salary (Vokoun leaves after the season), giving you space to sign Giroux and maybe Leino/Zherdev after the season.
ive had this thought as well. there could def be something under homers sleeve b/c he did stack us. it seems as though he could have tried to snag up some pieces that others will need later and sit on them until their value increases. or he might just like the team he made and thinks leighton needs THAT much help
That is interesting however I don’t think the 3rd pairing and goaltending where at fault during the regular season, inconsistent offseason cause by the lost of 50 goals from the lineup and breaking up both of your previous season top two scoring lines.
The 3rd Doomsday Pairing was only okay in the playoffs because the matchup we landed weren’t against offensively deep teams and rolling on 4 D-Men eventually wore them down once we reached the finals. So I don’t think going back to Doomsday is part of the plan but O’Donnel/Walker as you said is still and upgrade.
Really nice points we got options if Homer is thinking what you are thinking. Let’s see what works out and we have trade pieces to re-make the team at the deadline both up front and on the blueline.
I’m not saying the defense was at fault for the losses during the regular season. There were several reason we could get in to for the losses. I’m just intrigued by the idea of losing a Dman at the trade deadline for a goalie. It would take more than just one of Carle/Coburn though to get a guy like Vokoun in my mind, but who knows. I just really hadn’t though about moving either player during the year, but it was interesting.
Nothing in my response had anything to do with wins and losses during the season, so you are replying to the wrong person with your response there. I was commetning on simply the idea of a deadline deal involving our 4/5 Dman. I’m assuming Meszaros would be a harder trade to make considering his cap hit and contract length in comparison to Coburn and Carle.
Is this the right room for an argument?
The inconsistent offense surely played a role, but the terrible play from our #5/6 d-men was a big reason as well. It also likely hurt Coburn, as he was forced to play with Parent/Krajicek/Bartulis a fair amount last season. He’s simply not good enough to carry a pairing, which likely contributed to his frustrating regular season.
Early on it was the offense when we had the second slump post break it was the D. I agree there as our D was burnt out a bit after the olympics.
Coburn was expected to carry a pairing I though he could and management though he could. His failure to do so really hurt the team that way it was made up.
This should have been last year.
Carle-Pronger
Kimmo-Parent
Coburn-OKT
not bad in theory but Coburn flopped forcing him up created the DOOMSDAY 3rd Pairing.
In the salary cap era you have to get rid of the notion that players most be traded for value terms players / prospects in return. The value in the cap space freed up and the ability to keep other players. Hypothetically speaking If dumping Hartnell for a 4th round pick means can keep all of these forwards Leino, Carter, Giroux, and Zherdev you essentially traded Hartnell or Carter and a 4th round pick. That is the value.
I rather dump underperforming hit caps hits than trade for productive players for prospects that might or might not pan out.
The salary cap era is obviously different than past eras. But I don’t think it should stop GMs from trying to get value for their players in trades.
Phil Kessel wouldn’t have fit in Boston because of the raise he wanted. That didn’t stop the Bruins from getting a total haul for him. Of course, he was an RFA, so it was a different situation. But saying that GMs don’t need to get value in return for salary dump trades lets GMs off the hook, in my opinion. Even Chicago got some valuable pieces back in their salary dump this offseason.
The Gagne situation was an aberration, because the Flyers literally had no choice whatsoever. They had to move someone (plus Gags had a NTC), which is why we got almost nothing back. That kind of return is the exception, not the rule.
When Holmgren is weighing his options next offseason in trying to stay under the cap, he better take into account expected return. Carter is better than Hartnell, but if the choice is “trade Carter for solid winger and a high pick” or “trade Hartnell for mid round pick”, I hope he chooses the former, even though I’d much rather have Carter than Hartnell.
Of course, he could make this all unnecessary by getting rid of Giroux, which terrifies me.
BITE YOUR TONGUE. Anyone that mentions G and leaving Philly in the same sentence hereafter shall be shunned! We don’t wanna give Homer any ideas!!! That’s like saying in the summer of 1985, “Gee, I’d be heartbroken if Pelle had an accident!”
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
No
Other teams have no problem getting good value for their trades and keeping their teams strong. To say that we should trade good players away for nothing all the time is counterintuitive.
Simon Gagne may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home, but at the end of the day, he will always be a Philadelphia Flyer.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Aug 27, 2010 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I wanted to note that your conspiracy theory of stacking the defensive deck in order to hold chips at the deadline … definitely interesting. But with so many teams pretty set on defensemen, there’s only two that jump out at me as actively looking for that – Carolina and Anaheim, neither of which have diddly for goalies.
I still would prefer to see Briere pack up his minature skates, or Scott “Penalty Box” Hartnell pull his name off a locker.
Having such a ridiculous defense can also be justified in the fact that it appears the Flyers will be rolling three scoring lines – which generally means having three scoring pairings of defensemen gives you a boost. SO just like your three lines (Richards, Briere, and Carter) will share roughly equivalent even-strength time on the ice, so will your three defensive pairings – Pronger/Carle, Timonen/Coburn, Meszaros/O’Donnell. You see, then it’s not really like Meszy is a #5 defenseman – he’s just tied for #2 with two other guys. And then you always have that defensive rush threat to accompany the balanced attack from your forwards.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
I don’t think Mejzaros is a #2—he only was when his D partner was Wade Redden, who was elite back then just having gotten to playing on his own after Zdeno Chara left. Mejzaros is probably right where he should be—3rd pair.
by red army line on Sep 4, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree – he definitely has puck skills like a #2, and while his body positioning is suspect, he’s fleet enough of foot to make it up. I would like to clarify though – I don’t mean #2 as in second-best on the team, but top guy on a 2nd defensive paring. If you consider that Pronger is a #1, and Timonen is easily a #1A, then the next level of skills falls to Carle and Meszaros, with Coburn having possibilities.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
One last clarification – SINCE Timonen is a #1A, he is the top guy on the second D pairing for the Flyers. But on most other teams, that slot would fall to Meszaros.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
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