Grading the 2010 Flyers: Andreas Nodl

by Geoff Detweiler on Aug 30, 2010 12:00 PM EDT in Grading the Flyers

Grade: C

09/10 Salary: $685,000

10/11 Cap Hit: $850,000

10/11 Salary: $735,000

Linemates: 11.78% Jon Kalinski and David Laliberte

Depth Chart Ranking: #5 Right Wing

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[ Hockey Database Player Page ]

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	SHG	Hits	SHTOI/G	TOI/G	SOG	PCT
2009 - Andreas Nodl	10	0	1	1	-2	0	0	8	1:00	8:55	2	0.0

	TOI/60	QualComp	QualTeam	G/60	PTS/60	GFON/60	GAON/60	OZS%	Fen%	Cor%	PTake/60	PDraw/60
AdvancedStats	7.83	-0.191	-0.201	0.0	0.77	1.53	3.07	45.2	0.554	0.584	0.0	0.8

Nodl is a perplexing player. He was drafted as a scorer after putting up 59 points in 58 USHL games. He then scored 90 points in 80 NCAA games, only to score 1 goal (5 points) in 48 NHL games. In all, most people would consider the former second-round pick a bust and write him off.

But I (and a few members here) have a soft spot for Nodl. As the resident stats nerd, it's tough to find redeeming qualities, especially when looking above. He played terrible competition, didn't score, and allowed a lot of goals against. While that sounds (and looks) bad, Nodl starts in the defensive zone and pushes the play forward (Fenwick and Corsi). It's tough to fault a player like that.

In addition to the small sample-size effect ballooning his GAON/60, Flyers goaltenders had a 0.879 save percentage while he was on the ice. As a point of reference, the worst save percentage in the NHL last year (Vesa Toskala) was 0.880. You can argue that Nodl is partially responsible for his goalie's save percentage, but coupled with the small sample-size, it'd be tough to convince anyone that Nodl is really that bad defensively.

If you weren't convinced of that, look no further than his playoff performance: 1.52 GAON/60 with a 20% offensive zone start. It even warranted Peter Laviolette saying Nodl "played a great game" at one point.

The problem is that Nodl's game is now one best suited to a fourth-line role, with a possibility of filling in on the third line. This isn't a negative, but when Darroll Powe and Ian Laperriere are ahead of you on the depth chart, it becomes a hindrance. At this point, all Nodl needs is a chance at the NHL level. It's unlikely he gets it in Philadelphia without an injury, since this is his final year.

Maybe he doesn't warrant another chance, and his 38 games two years ago don't exactly scream deserving, but Nodl's game has changed since then. Now, he's a penalty-killing specialist, someone who throws his weight around in the corner, and someone who has skating ability. He clearly still has skill - 34 points in the AHL last year - but he only projects to 19 NHL points in an 82-game season (using Gabe Desjardins' NHL Equivalencies), or about 1 point less than Powe's production last year.

So until Nodl finds his scoring touch (if ever), he will likely only be an injury fill-in for the Flyers.

Poll

How would you grade Andreas Nodl's 2009-10 season?

A

1 votes

A-/B+

2 votes

B

34 votes

B-/C+

50 votes

C

76 votes

D

55 votes

F

8 votes

226 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Should have guessed the first time I’d be reference in something would be for my man crush on Nodl. I do have a huge soft spot for Nodl, which is why I hope he is moved somewhere where he’ll have an opportunity on a 3rd line. He has shown his willingness to adapt his game in order to make is game more valuable to the NHL club and well rounded, and I love that quality in a player. I still think his major issue with his lack of scoring at the NHL level is confidence, and hopefully he’ll gain that when given some playing time on a roster.

Is this the right room for an argument?

by DLJr on Aug 30, 2010 12:56 PM EDT reply actions

The problem is that he isn’t really scoring at the AHL level. I wish I could see how he was used in Glens Falls, but in his AHL career, he’s scored 15.77 goals per 82 games. That’s not exactly the mark of a scorer.

It may be confidence, we just can’t tell.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
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by Geoff Detweiler on Aug 30, 2010 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I haven’t seen him a ton of him on the Phantoms, and none since they left. But you look at the players on the Phantoms, no one is lighting it up exactly, so I don’t what is him, what is him changing his game, and what is the team.

Is this the right room for an argument?

by DLJr on Aug 30, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Nodl had the opportunity to crack the roster and didn’t. This was his year to prove himself as a regular and he couldn’t. He is one of those dime a dozen guys.

However…
I think he will be a fine 4th line winger in the NHL have a good career as PK guy who can safely eat up hard minutes from good players. But I want more than a 4th line guy with the 2nd round pick at 39th overall. He is a faster skating none physical Aaron Asham with arguably worse hands. That is disappointing. Hence a D grade.

Under the light of my expectations I can see him having a very good year filling in for Lappy, Powe and Betts when they can’t play and when they retire or move on. He is part of our 4th line of the future.

by chrislanci on Aug 30, 2010 1:17 PM EDT reply actions

This was not his year, as Geoff pointed out, his chance came 2 years ago when he got some time with the Flyers young super stars. Unfortunately he wasn’t playing for the best guy for his game in my mind, and he was also shuffled all over the place. However, he still had his chance, and didn’t make the most of it.

This year he had his chance in the playoffs where he played in 10 games (the same amount he played during the regular season this year, averaging about the same amount of time on ice per game). And he showed this year in the playoffs that he can handle a defensive role at the very least.

If you are gonna call a guy out for being a dime a dozen player, at least get your facts straight; especially when Geoff gave you the fact in the write up.

Is this the right room for an argument?

by DLJr on Aug 30, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Let’s look at Nodl’s shooting percentages:

08-09 AHL: 10.5%
08-09 NHL: 3.0%
09-10 AHL: 17.9%
09-10 NHL: 0.0% (two shots)

If I wanted to do a whole post on Nodl’s abysmal 2008-09 season, I bet I could come up with about 6 reasons why that’s not who Andreas Nodl is/will be. Instead, that season (his first professional year, after only two years of college) threw off his entire career path.

If I ever find the time – and I just might – I think this will be a really interesting topic. How Nodl’s development got thrown off. Just think: people (including myself) wanted JVR to play a year in the AHL before going straight from college to the NHL. He was a #2 overall pick. Nodl got 3 weeks in the AHL as a second round pick. You have to feel bad for the guy that JVR gets all the excuses, but Nodl gets called a bust for not being able to “underperform” (actually, meet) like JVR.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Aug 30, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I thought Nodl made the jump to the NHL way too early, or his shot came too early. Granted he came over here, and was learning the NA game, but college is not major juniors, and definitely a far far jump from the NHL. I just didn’t want to make excuses for Nodl either and say he never had a shot, b/c I am definitely a Nodl apologist, so I’m trying to take some of that out of my responses. Nodl definitely needed more time (game experience and getting his body comp right as well), and I feel like his confidence is still shaken from the 08-09 season.

Let me know if you want any help with the write up, I definitely love the idea.

Is this the right room for an argument?

by DLJr on Aug 30, 2010 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, it’s tough to take personal feelings out, but there’s so much going against Nodl because of those 38 games, but there’s so much behind those 38 games.

I just did a quick check for Nodl’s numbers when paired with Jeff Carter in 08-09 (roughly 40% of Nodl’s ice time) and found these interesting facts:

Carter and Nodl played together for all or part of 29 games. While they were on the ice, they scored a total of 1 goal. They had a plus-12 shot differential, a plus-19 Fenwick, and an even Corsi. They had a .930 save percentage. But they had a minus-5 goal differential.

Why? While Nodl was on the ice, the Flyers had a 1.0% shooting percentage. Of the 98 shots fired at the opposition, only one went in. So, Nodl’s “wasted chance” to make it in the NHL, while playing with the AMAZING Jeff Carter (sarcasm to anybody who says he had a great opportunity), is gone because neither he nor Carter could score.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Aug 30, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Haha you’re far more patient than I am; I went to Dobber’s earlier when I replied to Chris, but didn’t have the patience to do the math between the lines.

To play devil’s advocate, it is up to the player to make the most of his opportunity. However, given the production from the superstar he shared most of his ice time with, and his lack of experience in the pro’s before making the jump to the NHL, I think it’s obvious he didn’t get the best opportunity here. I would have liked to see a Red Wings type of development with Nodl, but that just wasn’t meant to be I guess.

Is this the right room for an argument?

by DLJr on Aug 30, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions

To play devil’s advocate, it is up to the player to make the most of his opportunity.

That is entirely true. But I would (and probably will) argue that he a) wasn’t ready for the opportunity; b) should have been expected to succeed; c) wasn’t given as good an opportunity as is presumed; and d) had some success in that opportunity.

Then the team changed what it wanted from him off a small sample size aberration.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Aug 30, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

shouldn’t have been expected to succeed*

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Aug 30, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Just to add:

Using Gabe’s AHL Equivalencies, Nodl would have been expected to have 20 goals and 29 assists in an 82-game, rookie AHL season.

His actual 6 goals and 14 assists in 39 AHL games equals 12.6 goals and 29 assists in an 82-game season.

And since he played the first half of the year in the NHL with terrible luck, you have to think his actual AHL numbers were hurt by that.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Aug 30, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I completely agree with everything you said, I was just playing devil’s advocate to play devil’s advocate. Just trying to get it out there so when I start defending him again people can’t say I’m completely blind to the opportunity he was given in the NHL.

Is this the right room for an argument?

by DLJr on Aug 30, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Also, after you provided the excellent stats, the conversation will get boring if we just completely agree with everything we have to say to one another, which when it comes to Nodl, I feel like we share a lot of the same thoughts.

Is this the right room for an argument?

by DLJr on Aug 30, 2010 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I saw Nodl in all his games in Glens Falls last season. It is important to remember that their offense and system was dysfunctional for the most part. I thought he was one of the best forwards on the ice when he was here. He seemed willing to try to play Gilbert’s system and certainly played decent two way hockey. We don’t get many Flyers games in Glens Falls, so I can’t comment on his time with the big club. I will admit that I thought there was a player or two who was playing better than he was, but remained here.

by Adkmac on Aug 30, 2010 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for that. And yeah, I heard the system was pretty messed up. Hopefully that’s fixed next year.

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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Aug 30, 2010 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I have to agree..

Nodl is a guy who I saw a few times while he was with St. Cloud St.and thought he had potential to be a decent 3rd line winger, and although his scoring has thus far been abysmal, I still have some hopes for him based on last years’ playoffs. He actually is quite defensively responsible and hopefully he spent the summer with Vanek to work on his shot

by Pocono Flyers Fan on Aug 30, 2010 1:24 PM EDT reply actions

He’s a capable winger for the Lappy-Betts line (who isn’t?) and has the ability to kill penalties. His abilities don’t give him the range of Powe or Carcillo, and aren’t as refined as Lappy or Betts. I have no problem sticking him in the minors until someone takes a puck in the face, and I don’t think we should be expecting much more than that at this point. It doesn’t matter what round he was drafted in; use him in whatever capacity he can offer us now.

by Snevik on Aug 30, 2010 2:01 PM EDT reply actions

Geoff if all the stats you post are correct it would seem like he is a Pretty good defensive player. Maybe he’ll never be anything but a 3rd/4th line tweener, but I could see him being like a Blair Betts(albeit a winger) type guy eventually. Every now and then he might even chip in a goal or two from the 4th line.

Yeah for a 2nd round pick that might be considered a “bust.” But think he can be a useful player for this team in the future.

Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"

by Ed Van Chimp on Aug 30, 2010 4:34 PM EDT reply actions

I much as I love him, I’d still like to see him have a shot to be a more two dimensional player elsewhere. I thought maybe this year would be the year he had more of an opportunity, but given how the roster stands now, I was clearly wrong, and hope he gets an opportunity some where soon, which will most likely be some where else.

Is this the right room for an argument?

by DLJr on Aug 30, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions

He certainly can. But like you point out, Nodl can’t play center, so he’s not able to replace Betts. He’s similar to Powe, but Powe is versatile enough to play center. That leaves Nodl only able to replace Lappy, Shelley, or Carcillo. He doesn’t at all fill the roles of Carcillo and Shelley, and Lappy is signed through 11-12.

Since Nodl is on the last year of his contract, I don’t see the Flyers having a spot for him. I certainly think he can be a useful player, I just don’t see how he fits into the team’s plans.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Aug 30, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Cup O’ didn’t have much of a chance last year, but has decent underlying numbers that suggests he could rebound. I do hope he gets a chance, because he would actually be home-grown talent.

Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Aug 30, 2010 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Side note

I really like the ‘A-/B+’ and ‘B-/C+’ options, Geoff. Please keep them for future polls. :)

#1 Flyers fan in England (originally from Southeastern PA)

by Orange and Black Forever on Aug 30, 2010 5:11 PM EDT reply actions

haha, thank DragonGirl. It was her compromise idea.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Aug 30, 2010 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Except Travis doesn’t use them for the report cards he writes… So I only won one of you over with the compromise.

Are we going to actually see the whole roster get graded this year? The offseason is winding down, and it would be a shame for some guys who didn’t get a report card last year to not get one this year either.

by DragonGirl0583 on Aug 30, 2010 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions