Flyer Forwards to Protect from the Expansion Draft

by Ben Rothenberg on Aug 31, 2010 5:32 PM EDT in Features

Remember me? Yes? No? Vaguely?

In any event, I'm here today to share with you a conversation I recently had with the more recently visible Geoff Detweiler about which forwards should be protected in the upcoming SB Nation Mock Expansion draft.

After you read our conversation, make your own voice heard in the comments and the poll below.

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Ben: I can't believe you want to keep Lappy over Hartnell.

Geoff: If we're going to lose somebody for nothing - as we would in an expansion draft - I want to have a better consolation prize than just "he's old and replaceable." I want ~$4 million in cap space so we can say, "yeah, that sucks we lost such a talent, but at least we have room to replace him"

Ben: You want to lose the offensive production? Lappy, likeable as he is, is utterly replaceable.

Geoff: Is he?

Ben: Sure. This league is full of grit guys. Plus, he's one concussion away from retirement.

Geoff: Jody Shelley is no Lappy. Powe is no Lappy. Nodl is no Lappy.

Ben: Nodl is no Flyer. Not yet, anyway

Geoff: Right. But if you're keeping Hartnell over Lappy, why not Lappy over Betts? He's one faceoff away from never being able to lift a hockey stick again.

More of the conversation, with the poll after the jump.

Ben: Lappy vs Betts is a more interesting, apples-to-apples discussion in my mind. Betts' injuries are bizarre because they happen out of nowhere, and from little things like reaching for a puck, whereas Lappy's come from diving in front of slap shots. But I feel like Betts has adjusted his playing style in a more effectively preventative manner than Lappy has. So for that reason, I'll pick Betts, but with no great enthusiasm. I can't believe you would take either over Hartnell, though.

Geoff: I'm looking at long-term value. First, I think Hartnell is a lot closer to what he did last year than two years ago. Yeah, he'll get around 25 goals this year, but he'll only get about 20 assists. Is that production worth $4.2 million for multiple years? With NTC? If you lose him, is it that hard to imagine Bill Guerin can give you that production, for one year at $1.5 million, without a NTC?

Ben: What is long-term about a journeyman guy in his thirties who is one play away from having his career over? Long-term thinking is not all it's cracked up to be. This is a team that was two games away from the Stanley Cup last year. You know it's a "win now" organization.

Geoff: The $2.7 million you just saved is long-term. "Win now" mode isn't exclusive from "build a sustainable winning model" mode.

Ben: But when they're inevitably at odds with each other, I will pick win now every time.

Geoff: Is a team with Richards, Carter, Briere, Giroux, Leino, JVR, and Zherdev not enough to "win now"? You need Hartnell too? They're not inevitably at odds.

Ben: So with this cap space, what would you do? Cap space is only good for a false sense of security.

Geoff: Owen Nolan. Marek Svatos. Bill Guerin. Ruslan Fedotenko. Pick one.

Ben: Arron Asham.

Geoff: Ship has sailed.

Ben: As far as Nolan, Svatos, Guerin, and Fedotenko goes: Old, Has-been, Old, and Maybe.

Geoff: Is Simon Gagne old?

Ben: None of those guys put up numbers like Hartnell does. Gagne is far more in his prime than a Nolan or Guerin.

Geoff: Talking Hartnell: Why do people have this notion that Hartnell is anything more than a 45-point scorer? Owen Nolan put up 33 points on a defense-first Wild team last year. He scored 25 goals the year before while scoring... 45 points. When you go to re-sign Carter, Giroux, Leino, and/or Zherdev next year, you suddenly have $4 million to do it while not substantially weakening your team this year.

Ben: Hartnell for any of those guys, though, is a substantial loss in my book. Hartnell scored 8 goals, and had 9 assists in 23 playoff games. That's pretty solid. Add to that the stats that have shown how stats dip during the season in which a player gets divorced, and more reason to think he'll bounce back strong next year.

Geoff: You want to put your stock in 23 games? Go right ahead. I'm sure Randy Jones wishes he got the same treatment (well, from more than one person). Add to that the stats that show during a divorce year, Hartnell's point totals equaled his career average. In other words, last year's "atrocious" season for Hartnell was exactly who he's been over the past 5 years. So, good luck hoping he has a career year. I'll take the odds that he doesn't and save $12.6 million over 3 years.

Polls closed.

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Comments

Sorry the poll looks like crap. SBN’s poll doesn’t let us use multiple choice.

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by Travis Hughes on Aug 31, 2010 5:47 PM EDT reply actions

You could put two polls side-by-side. this way we could see who everyone’s first choice and second choice are.

by tmurder on Aug 31, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions

SBN doesn’t allow two polls on a post, either.

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by Travis Hughes on Aug 31, 2010 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow that’s something that they should fix.

by tmurder on Aug 31, 2010 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I’ve made the request.

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by Travis Hughes on Aug 31, 2010 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions

So did Scott Hartnell actually get a divorce? Do we have any confirmation of this? And where is there a collection of divorce’s effect on a player’s stat line?

by Snevik on Aug 31, 2010 5:55 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t know if there’s data per se, but you need look no further than Tiger Woods to see the direct effects of divorce on a player’s career.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by doubleh on Aug 31, 2010 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I would guess that Tiger had it harder considering he is a generational icon. Not to say that it wouldn’t affect Hartnell.

by tmurder on Aug 31, 2010 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions

But being in the playoffs and having personal stress on top of it certainly isn’t easy. You’re trying to reach the pinnacle of your sport either way…and it’s not like Hartnell plays in a city that doesn’t give a crap about hockey (or any sports for that matter) anymore like Atlanta.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by doubleh on Aug 31, 2010 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions

True, but the whole world is watching Tiger even the tabloids. I would doubt most outside of Philly know much about Hartnell’s marital problems. However, I still believe it affected him. I hope its the reason he played so poorly last season because then he’ll be able to turn the corner this year.

by tmurder on Aug 31, 2010 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s worse because apparently Briere also went through one as well. Here’s hoping both have turnaround seasons.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by doubleh on Aug 31, 2010 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Also, Potulny’s still unsigned, right?

by Snevik on Aug 31, 2010 5:58 PM EDT reply actions

Correct.

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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Aug 31, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I wouldn’t protect Hartnell either. Either he doesn’t get claimed and the Flyers keep him or the Flyers get cap space to provide a short term fix and more space long-term to keep more important players. I’d protect Betts and Lappy because they worked well here last year and both make up huge parts of the team’s successful 3rd line.

by tmurder on Aug 31, 2010 6:08 PM EDT reply actions

This is a really tough choice, between Lappy, Betts, Powe and Carcillo. Making it more difficult is that they all have contracts around the same cost that will end soon. I really can’t decide. I’m all for risking Hartnell though, and I bet he gets taken.

Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Aug 31, 2010 7:06 PM EDT reply actions

Hartnell and Chico.

Both are going to have breakout seasons this year. Book it, done.

by BroadStreetBully on Aug 31, 2010 8:18 PM EDT reply actions

I think Betts and Lappy, you have to look long term because we dont want to screw ourselves like we did this summer again. Hartnell might have a bounce bck year but he isnt worth 4 mil. We have to keep in mind the future of this team, yes we all want a stanley cup now hell i want it 4 months ago but if this team is going to continually be in contention we need to think long term and that means having enough cap space

by sjuhawks42 on Aug 31, 2010 10:19 PM EDT reply actions

You could argue that long term probably doesn’t include Lappy (36). I was going to include Betts here, but who else knew he was only 30? Granted, it’s an old 30 due to injuries, but still younger than I thought.

Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Aug 31, 2010 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions

You cannot replace the intangibles Lappy brings to the squad. Period. End of story. Other than him I protect Betts because he’s fantastic at what he does. Hartnell can be replaced by someone else, you can get point producers for cheaper.

Flyers Fans: We've survived Lock-outs, Lindros and Cooperalls. If you want to get rid of us, you'll have to split an atom or two.

by KreiderDesigns on Aug 31, 2010 10:27 PM EDT reply actions

so some of the blogs refused to participate? that kinda sucks some fun out of it..

by rmg4519 on Aug 31, 2010 10:55 PM EDT reply actions

I picked Lappy and Powe.

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by Katchis on Sep 1, 2010 9:03 AM EDT reply actions

Seconded.

Powe for his versatility and speed (as well as his age) and Lappy for HIS versatility and determination. I think Betts could be replaced, although it would be difficult. Hartnell, while he is the best power forward on the team now, is a minor-penalty-magnet and not central to the team at this point. Either JVR or Maroon could replace him (with some seasoning) without reaching too far. I was tempted to pick Carcillo, but forced to choose I’d rather have utility infielders like Powe and Lappy than another fiesty winger with some scoring potential. Shelley can start packing now, as far as I care. Greg Moore?

Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.

by penguinsfan on Sep 1, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions

I’ll believe Maroon when I see him. He’s been talked about for so long and hasn’t done anything for the big club yet that I’m souring on him.

by tmurder on Sep 1, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions

This is a tough call. Lappy brings too much to the table to just let him go. Shelley may, but we haven’t seen it yet. Betts is very good at what he does, but then Powe does that well too. Very tough call. Carcillo, I won’t protect, but he won’t be picked anyway.

I would have to protect Lappy for those intangibles and great play. Not sure who to keep with the second pick. I like Powe but have a hard time saying we’ll protect him. Hartnell needs to step up this year and show what he truly is, but between a bad year and his cap hit… tough to say I’d protect him. I’m not sure he’d be taken anyway.

"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27

by Mike B on D on Sep 1, 2010 12:05 PM EDT reply actions

Can someone justify this Lappy over Betts sentiment? It looks like they’l both be protected, which is fine by me, but Betts is the one person on that list that I think should be a no-brainer. Hell, Mirtle made an argument for him getting the Selke; an unprotected Betts is a Nordique Betts

by Snevik on Sep 1, 2010 12:44 PM EDT reply actions

Well, Hartnell is currently beating Betts.

Why Lappy over Betts? Not to say that it’s my thinking, but: A) Betts has injury history. He’s coming off shoulder surgery and an injury-filled year. Lappy had a concussion, but…; B) Lappy put his face in front of a puck. Twice. C) Betts has Powe behind him, someone who’s pretty similar; and D) Lappy has that whole veteran, intangible, fight when needed, honor package that Betts simply doesn’t.

That said,

an unprotected Betts is a Nordique Betts

is entirely true.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 1, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Fair enough. I just feel they are both on the team to do defensive things, and Betts does them better, with slightly more offensive upside, and is both younger and cheaper. Obviously, Lappy is loved for his unique toughness. I just think Betts’ play is worth more.

Are we assuming whoever of Betts/Hartnell/Lappy gets freezed out will be leaving? I think it’s certainly the case for the former two; the latter, I’m not so sure.

by Snevik on Sep 1, 2010 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions