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Mock Expansion Draft: The Defensemen

The Wolf will attack if you don't vote for him.

The votes are in and the polls are closed.  Distinguished BSH members have rejected my argument and sided with Ben, protecting Ian Laperriere and Scott Hartnell.  That's fine, it's tough to break the habit of being snuggled up against the cap.  We'd be lost without that problem.  Just like if the Flyers found a franchise goalie: we wouldn't know what to do.

So with that, the honorable Messrs. Mirtle and Desjardins will be choosing from Darroll Powe, Blair Betts (surely gone), Greg Moore, Jody Shelley, and Dan Carcillo.

But now it's time to turn to the defense:

Protected: Chris Pronger, Kimmo Timonen, Matt Carle, and Braydon Coburn

Exempt: Marc-Andre Bourdon, Kevin Marshall, Joonas Lehtivuori, Erik Gustafsson, Tyler Hostetter, and Dan Jancevski

That leaves four players battling for immunity.

Star-divide

Community,

Now is the time for you to make it up to me.  You chose offensive production over $12.6 million in cap flexibility.  Now, I offer you $16 million in exchange for comfort.  See, the Flyers currently have a much improved third pairing on defense.  They have this by acquiring four (4!) bottom pairing players, all of whom are now before you asking to be saved.

Out of Andrej Meszaros, Matt Walker, Sean O`Donnell, and Oskars Bartulis, the Flyers will dress two of them every night.  Now, it's no guarantee that any of these get selected in the draft, but that's not what we worry about here.  Instead, I'm sure most of you wouldn't care to lose any of these players, especially since one of them will likely find themselves in Glens Falls next year anyway.

So with that, I have a few questions for you.  Do you not wish to be a wolf of the sea?  Do you not trust our Wolf to play 82 games alongside Mr. O`Donnell, knowing you have a Matt Walker available in case of injury?  Are you not excited that the Phantoms will possess four (4!) very exciting prospects, three of whom are entering their sophomore seasons this year?

Yes, it is comforting to have Meszaros on the third pairing instead of Lukas Krajicek.  But, what about next year?  The Flyers are already committed to seven defensemen for the following season (only Mr. O`Donnell is unsigned), with Messrs. Bourdon, Marshall, and Lehtivuori just waiting for a chance to play.  Without losing Mr. Meszaros, those three will have a very difficult time cracking the lineup, if they can at all.

What about the forward position for next year?  The team will look to re-sign Messrs. Carter, Giroux, Leino, and Zherdev (and Powe and Carcillo, while finding another goalie) all with only ~$13 million in cap space.  We are all well aware of the future - indefinite - problems this team will have with the cap, so why not open up the possibility of shedding $4 million a year for 4 years?

You're worried about this year, you say?  Well, if you don't trust any of the other 3 players (or the 4 in the AHL) to make Michael Leighton serviceable again, there is still a pretty good player available in free agency: Lukas Krajicek.  I kid, I kid.  But seriously, Kim Johnsson is still available, as is Paul Mara and Andreas Lilja.  If you wish to go the RFA route, the Flyers could still make an offer for Marc Staal or Matt Niskanen.  There are options available to replace a player who we're all hoping finds his game again.  Which he hasn't had in two years.

"But what about long-term, Geoff? Pronger and Timonen can't play forever!"  Certainly.  But Meszaros didn't show anything the past two years that he can replace them, either.  And by the time Timonen's contract runs out, the Flyers would only have one year left on Meszaros contract anyway.  You're saying in three years, none of Bourdon, Marshall, Lehtivuori, or Gustafsson will be able to fill in?  Or that neither Matt Carle nor Braydon Coburn can step into first-pairing defensemen?  You, then, are cynical.

What about next year? Well, besides the fact that the Flyers have 6 defensemen already signed for next year besides Meszaros, the unrestricted free agent crop will include Tomas Kaberle, Joni Pitkanen, Kevin Bieksa, James Wisniewski, and Christian Ehroff among others.  And since the Flyers will still only require a #5 defensemen at worst, they can replace Meszaros (and Walker and Bartulis, assuming neither is more than a #6 at that point) with players such as Sean O`Donnell, Anton Babchuk, Randy Jones, Mark Giordano, Andy Greene, Jeff Woywikta, Jordan Henry, Freddy Meyer, and Nick Boynton among others.

In conclusion, the Flyers have a gluttony of defensemen right now.  That's a positive, certainly.  But it's a luxury.  And when the team will be paying their top-4 a combined $17.89 million, needing to give Giroux and Carter raises, as well as replacing or re-signing five other players, that $16 million risk that is Andrej Meszaros could be dragging you down.  Now is the chance to not only back away from the salary cap and bank money for next year's difficult free agency, but to create a space for younger, high-ceiling, cost-controlled players to step into.

I know Flyers fans aren't used to this, but balance the loss of Meszaros - which, no one is admitting, is a pretty big risk - this year against having $4 million a year for 4 years, allowing Marc-Andre Bourdon to become the next Kimmo Timonen.  Or Kevin Marshall.  Or Joonas Lehtivuori.  Or Erik Gustafsson. 

Do it for the kids.  Vote Oskars.

Poll
Which Flyers' defenseman should we protect?
Andrej Meszaros
257 votes
Matt Walker
16 votes
Sean O`Donnell
43 votes
Oskars Bartulis
126 votes

442 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 42 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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My only gripe with letting Meszaros walk is that the Flyers just traded a 2nd rounder for him. But either way they cant get that back so it a moot point. The potential cap room is enticing so I went with Bart.

by tmurder on Sep 1, 2010 4:23 PM EDT reply actions  

It’s gotta be Bartulis.

Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Sep 1, 2010 4:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Holy shit. You said a paragraph, not a fucking manifesto.

Good points all, but my argument is based on this:

Do I trust a pairing of O’Donnell-Bartulis or O’Donnell-Walker to be substantially better the third pairing last year? And if not, can Leighton play as good as he did last year or better? To both questions, I answer no. We we can get by with worse defense than last year.
-Meszaros was
-I promise you, in Homer’s mind—acquired for the future. He is actually a really capable, still young d-man. He could develop into the next Kimmo Timonen for all we know (check out Kimmo’s numbers from 11 years ago, then look at Mesz’s last year). In fact, he has the following advantage over any of our prospects: he’s played in the NHL, and he’s done it very well, at times. Kimmo has all but said he’s done in two years. Pronger is aging. We’ll probably need another elite defenseman before Kevin Marshall has a chance to develop, meaning at least one from the Carle, Coburn, and Meszaros crowd.

I’ll post more as I can put them together coherently. Back to the end of the workday push.

by Snevik on Sep 1, 2010 4:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Gigantic formatting fail. The struck-out part should, well, not be. For those who don’t want to read through lines:

*Do I trust a pairing of O’Donnell-Bartulis or O’Donnell-Walker to be substantially better the third pairing last year? And if not, can Leighton play as good as he did last year or better? To both questions, I answer no. We we can get by with worse defense than last year.

*Meszaros was—I promise you, in Homer’s mind—acquired…

by Snevik on Sep 1, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

If Mes can get back to his rookie form, then Homer would get a pass for the trade. But he’s been on a downward spiral since signing his current contract, and if he doesn’t turn it around the Flyers will be stuck with it until 2014

Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Sep 1, 2010 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I got a little carried away.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 1, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is why democracy is the worst form of government…

And this is why I never want to run for anything. I blame my constituents.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 1, 2010 5:28 PM EDT reply actions  

It just means you’re wrong, Senator Detweiler.

Visit the BSH Store :: Get us on Twitter :: facebook, too!
Broad Street Hockey - SBN's Philadelphia Flyers blog. 2010 Eastern Conference Champions.

by Travis Hughes on Sep 1, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

It means I’m a fiscal conservative, deficit hawk, but all you people are in the “Lower taxes! More services! Get your government hands off my Medicare!” camp.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 1, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hahahaha, rec’d.

Visit the BSH Store :: Get us on Twitter :: facebook, too!
Broad Street Hockey - SBN's Philadelphia Flyers blog. 2010 Eastern Conference Champions.

by Travis Hughes on Sep 1, 2010 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair enough. I share Travis’ sentiment.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 1, 2010 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Green it is

Is this the right room for an argument?

by DLJr on Sep 2, 2010 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Right…. so, you’re wrong.

Visit the BSH Store :: Get us on Twitter :: facebook, too!
Broad Street Hockey - SBN's Philadelphia Flyers blog. 2010 Eastern Conference Champions.

by Travis Hughes on Sep 1, 2010 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

There will be consequences and repercussions!

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 1, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

WWJBD?

Flyers Fans: We've survived Lock-outs, Lindros and Cooperalls. If you want to get rid of us, you'll have to split an atom or two.

by KreiderDesigns on Sep 1, 2010 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I’m disgusted (physically ill!) by the way the votes are going on this topic.

You know what’s next? People will want to protect Leighton over Boosh.

Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Sep 1, 2010 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

So far, that is exactly the case . . .

@Mitchman88 on Twitter

by Mitchell Green on Sep 1, 2010 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

/dies.

I wish all these people voting the exact opposite of me would defend their choices.

Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Sep 1, 2010 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

They are doing that just to spite you, why would they explain anything…

I love the Lightning AND the Flyers... go ahead, preach me!
Dare to follow my childish, biased, petty and cheesy alter ego.
American Cheese, B!tch! ... #1 mission? Kill Holmgren.

by Katchis on Sep 2, 2010 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

While Meszaros makes way too much money and his acquisition played a large role in Gagne being shown the door, I don’t think the trade was a complete disaster like most of us on here. Sure he hasn’t lived up to his potential the last few seasons but he played top pairing minutes on a crappy team. I’d say the whole “crappy team” argument holds the most water in the case of defenseman. It was a risky move no doubt but I’m excited to see what someone with his size/talent can do playing a lesser role on a (hopefully) better team.

With regards to the post, I’d hope and pray for an opposing GM to take walker’s worthless salary of our books. and I wouldn’t protect Oskars either…but then we run into the crippling problem of having no Latvians on the roster.

by njh3293 on Sep 1, 2010 5:38 PM EDT reply actions  

The team wasn’t crappy. The system was.

I love the Lightning AND the Flyers... go ahead, preach me!
Dare to follow my childish, biased, petty and cheesy alter ego.
American Cheese, B!tch! ... #1 mission? Kill Holmgren.

by Katchis on Sep 2, 2010 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

I went with Bartulis

by The Legend on Sep 1, 2010 5:43 PM EDT reply actions  

With a hii hii hoo and a hii hii hey!
We’re hoisting the flag to be free
We will steal the show, Jolly Rogers go
We are wolves of the sea!

@Mitchman88 on Twitter

by Mitchell Green on Sep 1, 2010 6:05 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

I salute the Wolf

Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Sep 1, 2010 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

We gotta protect Bartulis, he’s gonna develop into a solid #4 D-man eventually. Meszaros is kinda like Braydon Coburn, only with a ginormous cap hit.

That being said, I criticized acquiring Leino and look how that turned out

I was scared that we kept Carter and let Umberger walk, well, still not totally sold on that.

If someone wants the Big Mesz, they can have him

by Down Goes Spezza on Sep 1, 2010 7:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Agree.

Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Sep 1, 2010 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sooooo as backwards. we don’t have to wait for Meszaros to be a number four defenseman—he already is. And his a higher upside.

The argument for Bartulis is not that Bartulis is a particularly great player.

by Snevik on Sep 1, 2010 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THE CAP. Sure, in a dreamland you could keep all these primo expensive players – but in reality you can’t. I think getting Meszaros was actually a good deal for the Flyers; he has plenty of talent, he’s young, and he is arguably a second-pairing defenseman now. HOWEVER, I’d rather have that $4 million a year available to sign some forwards, and let Barty play on the third pairing. No, he’s not an equivalent for Meszaros – but then, the team only needs so many top-four defensemen, ya know???

Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.

by penguinsfan on Sep 2, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’ve been over this. Above. Anyway, my point is, if Bartulis’ upside is a #4 don’t keep him under contract. That’s a shitty use of resources as well. Of course Meszaros is a capfucker (this word, I think, should catch on), but he’s a #4 with potential for a #2 (ala Matt Carle, if you pair talent with Chris Pronger) or #3. Bartulis is a #7 (and last year, an average one) with the potential for a #4. We have three or four defenseman below him that also want a roster spot, and they all have higher upsides.

Let me put it this way: I’ll be surprised if Barty plays out his contract here, and I assure you he won’t be resigned by us.

by Snevik on Sep 2, 2010 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have to admit – I like the “capfucker” word. :)

Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.

by penguinsfan on Sep 3, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

BTW … the right answer here was to protect Sean O`Donnell or Oskars Bartulis. If you think Bartulis could be a real player and could really be an asset to you then your choose him, if not O’Donnell.

Why do you ask? Salary. Meszaros makes too much as a #5 D and Matt Walker makes too much as a #7 D (#8? #9? … i dunno anymore). Leave them unprotected and maybe someone drafts them off your team. Just remember GM Of The Year already unloaded both of these guys once … always assume Stevie Y knows what he is doing. O’Donnell will more than likely retire at the end of the year so having him on team so in two years time you will have eliminated possibly 3 of the 4 dead weighs on your defensive balance sheets.

by ic0n67 on Sep 2, 2010 3:42 PM EDT reply actions  

Meszaros is over-priced, but the market for replacements is not what it was July 1st. And we need that third-pairing anchor, regardless of what he’s paid. Plus, Meszaros is young and good.

The reason you don’t protect O’Donnell, conversely, is the replacement market for him is there. He was a good signing, but it’s not worth covering that one-year contract.

But, once again, this is ground we already covered. Read above. Those are arguments. Walking in like you have the teacher’s answer key makes you look like a bit of a douche.

by Snevik on Sep 2, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I still don’t think paying $4million for a 3rd pair defenseman is a very good deal.

Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Sep 2, 2010 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I gotta agree with Todd. I don’t think he was a good acquisition. But that’s because of multiple reasons, not least of which is that I’m not at all convinced he “is young and good”.

Everyone keeps saying he had a good rookie year and if he can be that again… That’s a risk. The Flyers are gambling with this, and that’s a $16 million gamble they didn’t need to make.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 2, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

It would be great if he returns to that rookie form, but $4 million per year is top 50 defenseman money.

Other defenders on $4 million; Michalek, Regehr, Pitkanen, Whitney, Gilbert, Wideman.

All those guys, aside from Michalek, have higher point totals than Meszaros did in his rookie season. And Gilbert plays for the Oilers so the Lightning excuse doesn’t really cut it.

Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Sep 2, 2010 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

And Pitkanen plays for the Hurricanes.

Great work.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 2, 2010 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Heck, only Michalek and Wideman played for playoff teams. We could look at PPtime and QualComp, but I don’t think we have to. Mes isn’t worth that contract, probably only half that much.

It will be good having him on the Flyers this season if he can shore up the third pairing and develop into an eventual top minute guy, but if we could lose him through the expansion draft tonight then I’d happily take the chance. A third pair of Walker (similar microstats to Mes last season) and Bartulis with O’Donnell having some shifts is not shabby at all.

Of course, Homer wouldn’t do it because he just traded a 2nd for Mes, but we’re not Homer. Although the way the voting has gone makes me think otherwise.

Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Sep 2, 2010 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

I mostly agree, except we went after none of those better players, and now we’re stuck with Meszaros and a huge, risky contract or Kim Johansson and freed up cap room. I think this coming year is important enough to stick with the latter.

by Snevik on Sep 3, 2010 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’m assuming you meant former, but alas, we disagree.

With O`Donnell and Bartulis, I’d happily take the small-cap, short-term health risk that is Kim Johnsson than a high-cap, long-term, talent-risk that is Andrej Meszaros.

In my situation, if it doesn’t work out, you have home-grown talent (Bourdon, Marshall, Gustafsson, Lehtivuori), available free agents (Lilja, Mara, McKee, or Hnidy), or mid-season options ala Krajicek.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 3, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Repost of sorts

I was following a line of comments started by cocon1120 under “Solution to Long-Term Cap Problem”, and a strange thought did strike me. If the Flyers plan to roll three solid and balanced scoring lines (which it seems they do), then doesn’t it make sense to try and do the same with the defensive pairings? That way, you’re always covered at both ends of the ice – your defensemen can contribute to the up-ice rush as well as defend successfully in their own zone. Here’s where players like Syvret no longer fit – he could support the rush, but wasn’t great ‘at home’. Same for Krajicek, but reversed. Hence, we actually have three possible equivalent (or at least tolerably so) defensive pairings – Pronger/Carle, Timonen/Coburn, Meszaros/O’Donnell. (Or in theory you could pair Meszaros and Carle, and let Pronger’s talent carry O’Donnell.) Each pairing gets roughly the same on-ice even-strength time in a game; Coburn and O’Donnell lose out on the power play while replacing Carle and Meszaros on the penalty kill. You have thereby both reduced Pronger and Timonen’s playing time (a stated goal), as well as creating a more sustained attack with very little way for opponents to counter.

Thoughts? I know most teams play the ‘tiered’ system with a #1 pairing, and so on – do any teams try to balance all three? Am I off the wall completely on this one?

Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.

by penguinsfan on Sep 3, 2010 4:36 PM EDT reply actions  

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