Philadelphia Flyers Goal Projections for 2010/2011

by phinally on Sep 3, 2010 4:25 PM EDT

The off-season is a slow time and we've heard a lot about Gagne, why Carter sucks, and how stupid Holmgren is. So i figured why not change it up and make some predictions.

How many goals do you think each player on the Flyers will score next year?

I realize that there are advanced stats that we could examine or use other mathematical approaches to see what computes. Knowing these players through unmeasurable trends, slumps, and steaks, what do you feel they can produce? My projections are very lofty and barring no injuries, but it's still interesting to look at the chart I made below. There is a poll for total team goals-for as well.

				Goals
Offense	Player's Last 5 NHL Season Goal Totals					5 Year Averages	~2010/2011~

Mike Richards	11	10	28	30	31	22	32
Jeff Carter	23	14	29	46	33	29	34
Daniel Carcillo	4	13	3	0	12	6.4	14
Daniel Briere	25	32	31	11	26	25	27
Ville Leino	NA	NA	NA	5	6	5.5	24
Scott Hartnell	25	22	24	30	14	23	24
Claude Giroux	NA	NA	0	9	16	12.5	24
James Van Riemsdyk	NA	NA	NA	NA	15	15	22
Nikolai Zherdev	13	27	10	26	23	19.8	25
Blair Betts	8	9	2	6	8	6.6	6
Ian Lapperiere	21	8	4	7	3	8.6	4
Darroll Powe	NA	NA	NA	6	9	7.5	8
Defense
Chris Pronger	12	13	12	11	10	11.6	11
Kimmo Timmonen	11	13	8	3	6	8.2	7
Andrej Meszaros	10	7	9	2	6	6.8	10
Braydon Coburn	0	3	9	7	5	4.8	6
Matt Carle	11	2	1	4	6	4.8	8
Sean O'Donnell	1	2	2	0	3	1.6	2
							288

The NHL's List of Team GF Totals

The Flyers as a whole seemed to have underperformed last season. They still remained solid enough to total 232 goals for the year but more was expected of them. To explain some of my higher projections like Carter and Richards, I justify carter's high prediction because he is going to be fighting for a contract. After a horrible playoffs he needs to prove he is still that 30+ goal scorer that deserves the big money. Richards on the other hand just went through one of the most grueling spans of his career and saw what it takes to achieve ultimate success. That is why I think he will come out stronger than ever and play harder than ever before. Players like Leino and Hartnell I expect to have bounce-back years and I am heavily weighting their playoff performances. Hopefully Leino just needed a change of scenery and the right environment and will be able to show some of the play he did during the playoffs. Zherdev is another one who needs to play consistently well to show the NHL, he is worthy.

Yes, it would suck to list out all of the players, so maybe just predict your favorites.

Poll

What will the team goal total be for the 2010/2011 season?

Below 200 total goals

2 votes

200-220 total goals

0 votes

220-240 total goals

7 votes

240-260 total goals

28 votes

260-280 total goals

34 votes

280-300 total goals

12 votes

Over 300 total goals

7 votes

90 votes | Poll has closed

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by Broad Street Hockey.

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Comments

I picked 240-260. The Flyers scored a lot of goals last season from balanced scoring, and I don’t expect much of an improvement. Rather I expect to see a drop in goals against.

Backing Backlund for 2010-2011
Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Sep 3, 2010 6:11 PM EDT reply actions

I agree with this assessment. The Nucks and Caps needed great shooting percentages from guys who shot a lot (Backstrom, Fleischmann, Sedins, Samuelsson, etc) to reach their high goal totals. Without tons of PP time, it’s tough to top 260.

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Sep 4, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Zherdev will score 30, Carter will score 45+, and Hartnell and Leino will score 15-20, not 24. JVR will score 24, and Giroux will still be a 16 goal scorer.(mainley because he doesnt shoot the puck, almost all his goals were moves where he beat the goalie. Although I see a huge increase in assist this season) Other then that, I say that, I’d say that these are fairly good. Richie will never bee more then 30 goals, danny may be a reach at 27, but he could also score 35, so hes the toughest to predict. I think your giving our defenders a little too much though. I cant see 5/6 players raising in goal production from last year, especially Kimmo, who doesnt relly score from the point anyway. I say Pronger hit 11, everyone else will be i the 6 range again. Remember, we’ve never been much of a defensive scoring team anyway.

The laws of alchemy dont justify murder........but the laws of murder justify being a cowboys fan :P

by JpH89 on Sep 4, 2010 11:10 AM EDT reply actions

Ritchie – 34, Carter – 43, Briere – 27, Leino – 23, Hartnell – 21, Giroux – 21, JVR – 23, Zherdev – 28, Pronger – 13, Kimmo – 8, Carcillo – 12…Remaining forwards are 4-7 each at best, remaining defensemen are 2-6 each at best…

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by Fezzlekway on Sep 4, 2010 12:47 PM EDT reply actions

I think Leino is much higher than he should be. Giroux, Hartnell, KT, and Pronger I think are just a bit higher than they should be.

It’s important to realize that while on an individual basis each analysis and prediction may make sense, but on a team there will always be players who underperform. You can’t have everyone perform as in a good-to-great scenario.

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Sep 4, 2010 3:00 PM EDT reply actions

well obviously everything is not going to happen in a vacuum but like i stated, my predictions were overly optimistic and barring zero injuries. of course there are going to be injuries and of course everything isn’t going to work out perfectly for every player. but this is more for people that have seen a lot of flyers games and can subjectively judge potential. 288 goals is not an objective analysis. this was more of an analysis of each individual and because of that, i separated nhl total team goals into a poll.

by phinally on Sep 4, 2010 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Knowing these players through unmeasurable trends, slumps, and steaks, what do you feel they can produce? My projections are very lofty and barring no injuries

Sorry, reading fail on my part.

In that case, Carter 40+, JVR 25, Briere 35, and Mejzaros maybe 15.

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Sep 5, 2010 5:12 AM EDT up reply actions

haha yea it looks kind of outrageous but whatever, just for fun. i would love carter to have a mini-race with ovie for goals again but that won’t happen bc carter plays with no heart. maybe he’ll pull some goals out of his ass for extra money or a maxim photoshoot

by phinally on Sep 5, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Zherdev will score 15 goals less than Gagne …
Carter will be injured for a lot of the year and maybe hit 20 …
Briere will hit a career high in goals …
Van Riemsdyk will have two and be traded …
Pronger won’t be back til December and will have 6
and the sum total of all the 4th line goals will equal double what Scott Hartnell will have

by ic0n67 on Sep 7, 2010 12:31 PM EDT reply actions