FanPost

Why I hate regression to the mean

Here are the shooting percentages (or even strength save percentage, in Boucher's case) for each of the Flyers forwards in the current season and over the last five seasons (or for their career, if there aren't five seasons). Keeping in mind that there is a lot of year-to-year variance in shooting percentage...well, I'm starting to get pretty nervous about the second half of the season.

Player

2010-2011

Last five years

Giroux

19.3%

13.9%

Briere

16.8%

15.4%

Nodl

15.8%

10.9%

Zherdev

15.4%

10.8%

Hartnell

14.7%

13.0%

Leino

14.7%

13.0%

Richards

13.6%

12.3%

van Riemsdyk

11.5%

9.6%

Betts

11.1%

7.4%

Carter

9.4%

10.6%

Carcillo

8.3%

8.2%

Powe

6.0%

8.0%

Shelley

4.5%

4.1%

 

 

Boucher

91.9%

91.0%

Edit Jan 15: Ran some quick arithmetic (using the updated shooting percentages) and found this all adds up to just under 18 extra goals for so far this season. That means they've won about four extra games because of their above-expectation shooting percentage. Take away 7 or 8 points and they'd be the #6 seed.

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by <em>Broad Street Hockey</em>.

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