This will hopefully be the last post on this topic all season (or maybe all week, who knows, its fun to debate this). I was going to comment in the Godfather post with this but my results were so astounding, I decided to give it it's own post. Why is Jody Shelley playing over Carcillo. The obvious answer is ONLY because he's a bigger fighter. Pound for pound, he's the worse fighter. Carbomb is one of the top middleweights in the league and Shelley is an average to below average heavyweight (probably more below). Having Shelley in the line-up provides protection for the more gifted players (again, this is the easy answer, there will be some better stuff to come).
The naysayers say but Jody can't skate, he certainly cant score, he hardly fights, and Carcillo does all of the above! Is that the case? If Carbomb is a better overall player then he's got to have a better +/-, right?
Jody Shelley is a +4
Dan Carcillo is a -7 (only Powe (-1) and Bartullis (-4) are negatives)
Well +/- is horrible. Lets use the "rating" stat, which is +/- per 60 on less +/- for 60 off. It shows relativity to the team to prevent everyone on good teams to have good numbers and same with bad teams.
Jody Shelly -.09
Dan Carcillo -4.25
Dan's is good for dead last on the team and Jody's is 7th among forwards, ahead of Richie and Claude.
But Danny Carcillo scores more than Shelley given TOI, so he should play, right?
Jody Shelley .5 G/60(better than Powe and Wellwood (forwards only))
Dan Carcillo .63 G/60(better than above and Betts(forwards only))
Heres the thing... we don't need our fourth line to score goals. We've got 9 potential 20 goal scorers to do that, not to mention a guy who could hit 50 this year (not out of the question for Danny B, but that is neither here nor there). If the team scores when someone's on the ice, its basically just as good as them scoring, right? And the team scores mroe with the big guy:
Goals for (team) per 60
Jody Shelley 2.51 (good for 4th from last over Betts, Powe, and...)
Dan Carcillo 1.26 (dead last, Powe is second to last with 2.03)
But that isn't the important thing. Our fourth line needs to keep pucks OUT of the net. No one on the Flyers keeps pucks out of the net like good ol' defensive wiz Jody Shelley. WTF?
Goals allowed (team) per 60 when player is on ice
Jody Shelley 1.5 (BEST ON THE TEAM. Wellwood was second with 1.53, Powe is 1.66, and JVR is in the 1.8's)
Dan Carcillo 3.45 (WORST ON THE TEAM. Powe is 2.84 behind him. That is a horrible outlier on a solid defensive team)
+/- on ice /60 minutes
Shelley +1 (8th over Richards, Claude, and Zherdev)
Carcillo -2.20 (last, Powe at -.41 is only other negative)
The only point you can make... is shooting percentage
Danny C's team shooting percentage is only 5%, good for last. By a lot. Zherdev is 8.23 in second to last, with Shelley at 9.8). Shelley's save percentage is tops with Carcillo on the bottom. I am acknowledging that this number is the main factor in all of the other numbers I've gone over, but with that being said, there must be other variables than pure luck.
Shelley Takes 2, draws 1 per 60. Now Jody plays around five minutes a night, so every 12 games, he costs us a penalty. Carcillo takes 1.3 and draws .9. takes .4 penalties for 60 minutes. He costs us a penalty every 30 games. Advantage no one really. Jody costs us about 5 more penalties a year than Carcillo, we give up goals on the PK roughly 1 of 5, he costs us a PK goal a year penalty-wise.
Jody's dead last with -.141 while Carcillo is at .020 in 5th place. I have no idea why that is. But while that difference of .161 is pretty staggering, it doesn't compare to the teammate difference. Shelley has by far the worst QTeam of -.749 while Carcillo is -.341 good for 3rd to last. thats a .400 difference, almost tripling the difference of .141 in the QComp. This means that Carcillo's harder competition is compensated by his better teammates, meaning there is no reason for the skew in numbers other than pure luck due to shooting percentage and you cannot use QComp as an argument, because the QTeam is almost 3x the argument n the other direction.
Behind Betts' 28.6 OZone start come Carcillo and Shelley's 35.7 and 37.1. Carcillo manages to end in the offensive zone a staggering 53.2 while Shelley's only moving the play the other way 38.2. The difference of almost 18 to barely 1 is a huge advantage to Carcillo.
Conclusion: Jody Shelley, this year, has been a more effective hockey player than Dan Carcillo. His goal production is basically on par, although the team is better both offensively and defensively with Shelley on the ice. Although Danny's QComp is .141 harder than Shelleys (who is worst on the team), Shelley's QTeam is .400 worse than Carcillo's negating the original advantage that Shelley had. Penalties are basically a wash, with Shelley costing the Flyers one goal per season with these rates due to penalties. The only two factors you can argue Carcillo would be that his luck with shooting percentage is horrible and he turns the play the other way better than Shelley does. With all of the hard data crunched, the point is simple. We need our fourth line to do one thing and one thing only. Stay even on the night so the top three can dominate. As long as that happens we will keep winning. Carcillo's offensive "ability" is meaningless in this scenerio as he is not keeping the puck out of his own net this year very well at all. We need a guy who can play five minutes a night and add some thunder to the lineup. In addition to being a better player than Carcillo (using the markers that I did above) he's the bigger fighter, he showed he's smart and knows when to fight, and say what you want about it he's a "locker room guy." YES HE IS OVERPAID, but at this point, does it matter if the whole team makes the league minimum and Jody gets the rest? No. Might there come a time down the road where we really regret his salary? Quite possibly. As EDUCATED fans, and that is what most of us are over here at BSH (everything I've learned in this post has been from the people here, mostly Geoff) is it that hard to see why he is in the line-up? We win with him in. He doesn't mind taking the small minutes. He drops the gloves with whomever. He defends his teammates (except when he's got little monkeys jumping all over his back). He's also a big body in front of the net that causes his teammates to have the highest shooting percentage when he is on the ice (that is a major factor in the shooting percentage category, not everything has to do with "luck"). All year long I've been on the Shelley bandwagon and have used very qualitative posts for my argument. Hopefully this "Geoff-friendly" post will help my advanced stats cred.