Trade Deadline: Four Weeks Away
by orangeandblack20 on Jan 30, 2011 1:17 PM EST
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PrintWhat do we do at the deadline?
What do I think? If it aint broke, don't fix it. Were the top dogs in the league with the most goals, and 9th in GA. There isn't much to improve. Not saying we cant improve, it will just be very hard for us. If someone says, take OV for Hartnell, Shelley and Zherdev, we'd be silly not to consider (just a random good player for 3 random guys with big cap hits). But I'm going to explain why there is only one move we could make, and why that is not a bad thing.
Goalies: Unless we can move lots of cap up front (which we cant without destroying the make-up of the squad) we can't get a goalie. Boosh is playing solid and Bob is getting hot again. Last year showed you don't need big name goalies to get you to the promise land. Niemi, Leighton, Halak and Nabakov were the final four goalies last year. Who are the first three? We'll be fine in net.
Defense: We might have the best total defense in both the NHL today and in Flyer history. Pronger is a 1 on any team in hockey. Kimmo is a 1 on any team except about 5-10 (you can make an argument for Kimmo on any team except us, Boston, Detroit, and Chicago. I might be forgetting a few, but you get the point). Barry Melrose said at the Classic that Braydon Coburn could be a #1 on most teams in the league. Do I believe it? Probably not. Is Barry Melrose more knowledgable than me, when it comes to that topic? Absolutley. Either way he's an amazing 3-4. So is Matt Carle. And then our third pair of Mez and OD is the best 3rd pair in hockey. Both guys have been exceptional. Oscars is a solid #7 and if we need an 8 we reach down to the minors and pull up good old Matty Walker. BUT WAIT, WE CANT BRING HIM UP WITH HIS ONE WAY DEAL, HE'LL GET CLAIMED! Relax, I know. (Pretty sure on this next sentance, but correct me if I'm wrong please) The playoffs do not use a salary cap or a waiver system. We'll call up Walker once we are in the playoffs for D-man ensurance. If that all goes down the tubes, no issue... we've got the offensive dynamo Danny Syvret waiting in the wings to be our 8th D-man. None of the top 6 get moved. No effin way. I'd bet my house on it.
Line 4: Shelley-Betts-Powe. Come playoff time this could change to Carcillo-Betts-Powe. Both lines are solid. There is no need to "upgrade" this line. What are we gonna swap grinder for grinder and just come out with a draw and hurt chemistry? The Flyers orginazation doesn't operate like that. Were a family and we'd never make a silly 4th line swap. Now, I'd trade Powe if the Lightning said Zherdev and Powe for Gagne (example, please don't yell at me!), but that wont happen.
Line 2: Harts-Briere-Leino. No one's going anywhere. Hartnell has to go for us to bring in someone making around 7 million, but that wont happen for three reason. 1. His NTC is hard to work with. 2. This line is the best in hockey. 3. No one with a sensible brian would put us in a position to aquire another all star. Moving any of these guys is just flat out stupid.
Lines 1/3. In NHL 11 I keep Richie as my first line center because he can take draws in the offensive zone or the defensive zone. Thats why he's my "first line" center. On to the trading. We've got six guys on these two lines. These guys are the only possibilites to be moved. I'll tell you the scenerios why they could be moved, if the situation presents itself:
Richie- Hell freezes over
Carter- Richie gets traded (both wont happen, just a little joke... ha... ha...)
Giroux- You trade us your whole team
JVR- We get a pretty amazing offer and then find out that everyone hates JVR and thats why we traded him. % he's gone: .1%
Andreas Nodl and Nikolay Zherdev- Heres the deal. We need 12 forwards for 4 lines of 3. Trading either of these guys we must get a productive RW back for each guy we trade. Meaning, we trade Nodl, we need a winger back. We trade both, we need two back. Now, why could we trade these guys. Nodl- he's young, he'll be tougher to sign next year, and there are plenty of better wingers out there. Zherdev- He's been a healthy scratch and he's an offense only asset. I'd move either of these guys iff-
1. We get an equal number of NHL ready capable RW's in return
2. We upgrade in overall talent in the trade
3. We don't decimate ourselves in the cap
How can we do this? Trading prospects and picks. Lets say we can make a move on a Mike Knuble type player. Veteren. Good forward. Scores goals. Plays D. 2.5-4 cap hit of less than 2 years. We swap Nodl or Zherdev (pick one), a third round pick, and a defensive prospect. That is the only major move we could pull off IMO.
Come trade deadline the Flyers will not make an NHL move involving starting players because we are too good to mess with, IMO. If we do, its Nodl or Zherdev. That is my take on the cap, but when it comes down to it (I'm gonna say it..) I TRUST HOMER! If he makes a move, I assume we get better. No matter what. 2 bad moves, lots of good moves as a GM of the Flyers. Giroux and Briere for co-MVP!
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nodl is an RFA, so he has that going for him, in terms of staying on the team till july. As for Z? lets hope PH doesnt do anything dumb….
lets hope PH doesnt do anything dumb….
I kinda snickered at this. Just saying.
Ian Laperriere (EE-an luh-PAIR-ee-YAIR), proper noun
Definition: Bad-assery on skates
by Chemistry66 on Jan 30, 2011 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
With Z only being signed to a contract this year no one but a team on their way to the playoffs would make that trade. And if they already had a RW that the Flyers would want then why would they be trading for him?
I don’t understand why everybody is on the “trade Nodl” bandwagon. Next year, the Flyers only have 9 forwards signed, 6 of which are top-9 forwards, and one of the 9 is Ian Laperriere.
That means the Flyers need to sign at least 5 forwards, including at least 3 top-9 forwards. They have ~$3.36 million in cap space (plus any increase) to sign 5 forwards, 1 defenseman, and 1 goalie. If you think the team carries Leighton ($1.55), Walker ($1.7), and re-signs Leino ($2.3), that’s $5.55 million right there.
How about a best case? The team uses Syvret ($600k), Backlund ($800), and Wellwood ($580), and you’re at $1.98 million. You get Leino on top ($2.3 million), and you’re suddenly at $4.22 million.
Why, oh WHY do people want to get rid of Nodl, who is an RFA making only $850k this year, when the team needs THREE top-9 players next year? Even if you re-sign Leino and call-up Wellwood, you need another top-9 forward, a 4th line forward, and a 13th forward. And you’re ALREADY using any projected cap increase.
Can we please stop the “trade Nodl” shit now? He will be an experienced, two-way player capable of playing tough defensive minutes alongside Mike Richards for cheap, yet people want to trade him. Despite that not making sense this year, it makes even less sense for next year.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 31, 2011 10:37 AM EST reply actions
I was waiting for you to write this so it would be taken seriously, because now, when I say something positive about Nodl it’s meaningless since I like the guy. But anywho, I feel like people are also over estimating what he’ll make next year. The kid is an RFA who has never hit the 10 goal mark and will be coming of his EL deal. He isn’t going to touch $1.5, and if he makes $1.2 I’ll still be bitching about it as I see that as the absolute most he could possibly ask for.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Is this the right room for an argument?
I’ve been holding off on the “Early Look at the 11-12 Flyers” post because, well, people don’t give a shit and they’d get angry at me.
But I feel like people have no idea what next year will look like, and all they ever say is “well, the cap is going up”. It quite possibly may go up, but it simultaneously will go down due to the lack of a bonus cushion.
Before anybody starts talking about next year or reasons players should or shouldn’t be traded, go look at CapGeek. The Flyers have a lot of holes on offense to fill, with no young, cheap talent coming up from the Phantoms. And no, Eric Wellwood is not NHL ready yet. He can probably tread water, but he will be carried for 2/3 of the season next year.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 31, 2011 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
It IS amazing – you hear ‘oh, we should get Iginla’ … but no one seems to understand the cap implications of such a thing. Even ‘sign Nabby’ or ‘trade for Cole’ have no consideration given to the cap limit, this year or beyond. I realize we’ve all said these things ad nauseum in various places … but somehow the message just ain’t reaching. I admit freely – I don’t fully understand the cap rules (like bonus cushions and whatnot), but I at least understand that you can’t spend what you don’t got!!! Must be the same people that bought McMansions for 10x their annual salary, and are crying poverty now that the market dumped and the variable rate mortgage they signed is coming due. (Analogy: Chicago Blackhawks 2009-2010)
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jan 31, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
I had no idea about the bonus cushion until someone said it on here and I went to the CBA.
Then again, if any of those bonuses are unearnable as of Day 1 (like a JvR or Nodl Calder Trophy), the team will get the amount equal to that bonus toward the salary cap.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 31, 2011 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
Come trade deadline the Flyers will not make an NHL move involving starting players
I do not think we will move Nodl. I don’t think we’ll move anyone. If we do, and that is a major if, I think it will be one of the two. I just don’t see a point. Unless we get Mike Knuble for Nodl or something along those lines- I know its unrealistic- we wont make a deal. We are just too good to even consider a deal that would shake anything up right now.
by OrangeNblacK on Jan 31, 2011 8:01 PM EST up reply actions
And Hasn’t Nodl’s play deserved a spot regardless? Why trade a low salary guy who can play great with Richie?
Samesis
Like I said before, I don’t want to do it. But if we can upgrade his position, for less money, wouldn’t you make the move?
Scenerio:
Knuble makes 2 million. If he’s on the Panthers, would you move Nodl, a 3rd rounder and whomever on the Phantoms for a guy who can score and DEFINATLY can play on a line with the captain? He’s only got one year. He’s a rental. There are plenty of "Nodl"s out there (young, cheap, potential, just need to play with talent). Move him only if we get value (more talent less money)
by OrangeNblacK on Jan 31, 2011 8:20 PM EST up reply actions
But Knuble is not on the Panthers 1st off. 2nd, Nodl is a lot younger and could be just as productive as Knuble within two years. 3rd, Nodl is a lot cheaper. Why trade Nodl for a guy who slightly better to lose next year, when we can have Nodl this year and next. If we were to trade Nodl for knuble, I would want the 3rd coming back our way.
Samesis
Knuble makes 2 million. If he’s on the Panthers, would you move Nodl, a 3rd rounder and whomever on the Phantoms for a guy who can score and DEFINATLY can play on a line with the captain?
No, no I would not make that trade.
There are plenty of "Nodl"s out there (young, cheap, potential, just need to play with talent)
Please, please, please tell me where.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 31, 2011 9:06 PM EST up reply actions
He’s the new Testwuide. I swear.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 31, 2011 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t understand what your point is? I do not want to trade Nodl. But if we could get better and cheaper at the same time (whoever the player is) you would not make the move?
I want to keep Nodl.
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by orangeandblack20 on Jan 31, 2011 9:47 PM EST up reply actions
Then I don’t want to trade. Thats what I’m saying.
Unless an OUTSTANDING offer is presented to the Flyers, I’m not moving anything. That was my main point
Man Crushin on Bob since 2010
by orangeandblack20 on Jan 31, 2011 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
You just floated a proposal that is:
Nodl + 3rd Round Pick + Prospect
for
Mike Knuble.
How is that an OUTSTANDING offer, let alone “we could get better and cheaper at the same time”?
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 31, 2011 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
It was a poor example.
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by orangeandblack20 on Jan 31, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
You keep saying “I don’t want to trade Nodl”, but you also keep saying “I would trade Nodl for a really old guy with an expiring contract, even throw in a draft pick and a Phantom. That’s how little I think of Andreas Nodl.”
Further, “if we could get better and cheaper at the same time”, I reiterate: Please, please, please tell me where.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 31, 2011 10:34 PM EST up reply actions
We cannot find that offer. I’ve tried to (obviously not succeeded) explain that I wouldn’t make any trades except outstanding offers. This team is in first place in the league and doesn’t NEED anything. If we don’t need anything then we certainly don’t want to force anything.
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by orangeandblack20 on Jan 31, 2011 10:52 PM EST up reply actions
What’s the projected cap increase for next season? Last I heard it will be fairly significant because of the new TV deal…
by IG on Feb 1, 2011 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
I’ve seen anything from $2 to $3 million, but I have no idea how they got to those numbers. Presumably, the new TV deal factors into that.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 1, 2011 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not going to read the comments but:
First, this post is eerily similar to two other fanposts already up.(no offence)
Second, your analysis is on except for Nodl and Zherdev which is basically the main point of your post.
Nobody wants Zherdev and even if they did, they would be playoff contenders. I cannot think of anybody we would get that would improve our offense in regards to trading Zherdev. He has skill and you’re(along with many others) assuming that his bullshit isn’t behind him when it very well may be. We just are not going to get a top-9 forward with his skill in a trade.
Continuing onto Nodl; I’ll state this again: overestimate. Nodl makes like 825,000 this year and has 9 goals. He is a good two way player but that is all he has developed into so far. Kind of like Powe, although better. He has the potential to be something in this league, but he has to show it before he comes into money. In saying this, what kind of raise are you expecting? He will make 1 million max and if it’s more, I’ll be pissed. Further, this is why we need him. He is cheap and we have no one else in the system to fill in. Anyone that we would trade as a replacement for Nodl will a. cost more, b. not be resignable, and c. play the same game. We need Nodl for next year.
Concerning plausibility of moves, what about Carcillo, Shelley, and Leighton? You did mention that Shelley won’t play in the playoffs, therefore trade-bait. Carcillo hasn’t done much this year, therefore trade-bait. Leighton who, trade-bait. Anybody that won’t fuck up the chemistry on this team can go but replacing Z and N is difficult ALTHOUGH I understand your reasoning.
First, this post is eerily similar to two other fanposts already up.(no offence)
I started writing this as a responce but I figured it was so long, I should just put it here. I didn’t mean to step on anyone’s toes with this. Sorry if I did.
My main point is we wont move anyone. But… if we get an offer that is okay with these three rules, we’d be crazy not to do it. To get better and cheaper at our weakest position… why not?
1. We get an equal number of NHL ready capable RW’s in return
2. We upgrade in overall talent in the trade
3. We don’t decimate ourselves in the cap
He has skill and you’re(along with many others) assuming that his bullshit isn’t behind him when it very well may be
I’m a huge Zherdev fan. I swear! He’s on a line with either Richie or Carter and Giroux, meaning he can cheat! He’s been everything we expected of him so far.
Claim: He sucks at defense!
Rebuttel: 2.16 GA/60, 5th best behind JVR, Shelley, Nodl, Betts
Claim: He’s not even scoring (You’d be stupid to say that)
Rebuttel: 1.77 G/60 good for second behind Briere
Claim: He’s just lucky
Rebuttell: His PDO (Team shooting % + Team save % on ice) is 3rd worst behind Powe and Carbomb. Meaning he’s the 3rd unluckiest on the team.
On to the Nodl overestimated claim: I love cheap talent. But if we can package him for Knuble with one year left on his deal (Knuble is just an example, the Caps wont give him to us) I’d move him. I want the cup this year. We can get tons of fill ins to play with Richie and JVR (think about it… I could play with them) for cheap. I don’t think we’ll move him, but he’s one of a very few possibilities.
Carbomb, Shelley, Leights… honestly who wants them? I’d move a 13th forward, an overpaid heavyweight, and a backup goalie at best who makes 2x his value in a second… find me a partner and then we can dance.
by OrangeNblacK on Jan 31, 2011 8:17 PM EST up reply actions
We can get tons of fill ins to play with Richie and JVR (think about it… I could play with them) for cheap.
You really couldn’t.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 31, 2011 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
Intangibles! Loyalty!
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 31, 2011 10:43 PM EST up reply actions
… endless jokes ending in ‘slaw’ ….
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jan 31, 2011 11:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I’m not gettin the benefit of the doubt with anything today, am I? I even tried to throw in some advanced stuff up top there but I’m still not getting any love.
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by orangeandblack20 on Jan 31, 2011 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
It’s because the idea of trading Andreas Nodl is not based in reality.
You keep saying this idea that the Flyers should upgrade the winger with Richards and JVR if presented with an opportunity to do so. But you don’t want to trade Nodl. Unless you can get better and cheaper. In which case you’d trade Nodl, but you don’t want to.
Here’s the thing: You would trade Mike Richards if you could get better and cheaper. You would trade Chris Pronger if you could get better and cheaper. But you have yet to come up with anybody who is better and cheaper than Nodl. So take Nodl’s name out of it, and… you aren’t saying much of anything.
If a GM offers you a chance to get better and cheaper, take it. That’s like saying if a guy offers to give you a better car for less money, give him your more expensive, worse car. Does anybody need to be told that? No. It’s inherently obvious that you get better and cheaper.
The problem comes when you constantly throw names out there (Zherdev and Nodl) that are already pretty damn cheap, and already pretty damn good.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 31, 2011 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
You would trade Mike Richards if you could get better and cheaper
Richards for Stamkos right now? There are lots of good guys I wouldn’t trade right now to get younger and cheaper. Would you trade ANY of our centers for Stamkos right now (Carter excluded). I wouldn’t. There are key kogs to our machine that need to stay in place. Yeah, Timonen for Doughty is an easy one, but it would NEVER happen. IF a team was going to give us an opportunity to get better, there is only one weak spot in our lineup. Andreas Nodl. Don’t get me wrong, he brings a lot to the table but he’s got the 10th best G/60 (Carcillo + The top 8), and 9th best (Top 8) P/60, his 1034 PDO is going to come down. Yeah he’s vs. second line competition, with 3rd line teammates but those numbers are easily replaceable. Our defense is set. Our fourth line is set. Our Briere line is set. Richie, Carter, G, and JVR are staying as well. That leaves two guys. Nodl. Zherdev. If a team wants to sweep us off our feet, we’ll take a look. If not, then lets move on. We do not need to do anything… but if we do, there are two guys that have any shot of going anywhere.
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by orangeandblack20 on Jan 31, 2011 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
I would trade any player on the team right now for Stamkos. Hell, I would trade Richie AND someone else(like Hartnell or JVR) for him. Stamkos is on the elite level with Crosby.
Samesis
also...
Would you trade ANY of our centers for Stamkos right now (Carter excluded). I wouldn’t. There are key kogs to our machine that need to stay in place. Yeah, Timonen for Doughty is an easy one, but it would NEVER happen.
Let me get this straight, you wouldn’t trade any of our centers for a guy whos playing a better then all of them, but you would trade Kimmo for a Doughty, who is not having as good a season as Kimmo? I would do that trade to just for age difference(and they are the same cap when Doughty gets his next contract), but still, the logic is messed up with that statement.
Samesis
Hey, Stamkos still has a way to go. Soon, but not yet. That being said, there aren’t more than a handful of players Stamkos shouldn’t be able to net straight-up.
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by red army line on Feb 1, 2011 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
I assume you’re referring to the “elite level with Crosby” comment?
I agree, nobody is on Crosby’s level. And Stamkos needs to get more consistent. But I think he either has jumped over Ovechkin as the second best player in the league, or he will very soon.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 1, 2011 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
Would you trade ANY of our centers for Stamkos right now (Carter excluded).
I would trade ANY of our centers for Steven Stamkos right now. Hands down. Not even a question.
he’s got the 10th best G/60 (Carcillo + The top 8), and 9th best (Top 8) P/60
His job isn’t to score. I don’t understand why Nodl’s point totals are the measure of his value. They’re not.
his 1034 PDO is going to come down.
And yet his PDO is 7th out of 13 on the team. If his PDO comes down, so will the entire team’s.
Yeah he’s vs. second line competition, with 3rd line teammates but those numbers are easily replaceable.
Those numbers may be easily replaceable, but how easy are they to replace with a 23-year old player who costs $735,000 in salary and had a higher points-per-game mark in the NCAA than James van Riemsdyk? Sure, maybe there is an upgrade to Nodl this year (see below), but if all you’re looking for is a guy to play on the third line against second-line competition, those players are available in FA every year. Guys like Nodl, however, aren’t.
Our defense is set. Our fourth line is set. Our Briere line is set. Richie, Carter, G, and JVR are staying as well. That leaves two guys.
This is where we disagree. You’re only looking at the current roster and who can move. If the Flyers make a move, it likely won’t include anyone from the top 20 players. The only pieces likely to move are draft picks, Carcillo, Bartulis, Walker, Leighton, Bourdon, Marshall, Lehtivuori, Legein, etc.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 1, 2011 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
We are better this year with Richards, Giroux, and Briere than with Stamkos, right now this year. Making that trade of Stamkos for Richards improves us talent wise, but the Flyers are a better team to win the cup this year with what we have. I want a cup this year, and my point with Stamkos (First off, we couldn’t sign him next year) is that he changes the structure of our team, and why mess with the best?
Well, getting into hypothetical specifics: Briere for Stamkos.
There’s suddenly room to sign him for a $6.5 million cap hit. It’s no longer the LBH line, it’s the LaSH line. May not have the same chemistry, but Hartnell crashing the net (same), Leino making sweet jives and dishing the puck (same) to Stamkos (different) who can snipe corners (same).
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by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 1, 2011 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, and most hypothetical situations will never happen, but would Homer really risk tearing apart that chemistry for the best Flyer team (up to this point) ever? If the move is made and we keep winning its a no brainer, but a lot has to be said for how the Flyer “family” would look at trading Danny B, a fan favorite and our best goal scorer right now. It could cripple us. Getting back to the point, this is hypothetical but were thinking along the same lines now which is good, I think?
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by orangeandblack20 on Feb 1, 2011 8:28 PM EST up reply actions
but would Homer really risk tearing apart that chemistry for the best Flyer team (up to this point) ever?
No doubt. With Richards, Carter, Giroux, and Stamkos making up the core, down the middle, the Flyers are even stronger there than Pittsburgh.
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by red army line on Feb 1, 2011 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
Alright, alright. It may be unrealistic, since you’d have to sweeten the deal with prospects or picks – neither of which the Flyers really have (aside from supposedly some defensemen) – but there ARE players who are NHL quality, with better stats and less salary. Nodl makes $850k, and with the qualifying RFA tender he’ll get $935k next season, right?
I offer the name – Teddy Purcell of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Purcell is making $750,000 this season ($100k less) and has the same RFA status next season, so his salary becomes $825k – still less than Nodl THIS season. Purcell has 8 goals and 22 assists (!) for 30 points through 50 games this season. (Nodl has 18 in 41.) Purcell is only a -4 on a defensively challenged team, while you (if you were a stat guy) could make the argument that Nodl’s +13 is only due to playing with Richards. (And yes, I understand that if you were really a stat-head, you’d argue that plus/minus was garbage … )
SO – in theory, the Flyers COULD get better AND cheaper … but if Stevie Yzerman made that trade he’d need his head examined.
Other names that are cheaper and (arguably) better – Sean Bergenheim (TBL, 19 points in 49 games, $700K); Nate Thompson (again TBL, 17 points in 51 games, $625k); Anthony Stewart (ATL, 28 points in 52g, $632,500); Brad Marchand (BOS, 25 in 47, $821,667); Brendan Morrison (CGY, 27 in 51, $725k); Brett Sutter (CAR, 18 in 51, $500k); Bryan Bickell (CHI, 26 in 47, $541,667 for the NEXT THREE YEARS); David Jones (COL, 28 in 47, $837,500); Jamie Benn (DAL, 33 in 46, $821,667); Mike Santorelli (FLA, 27 in 49, $600k); Jeff Halpern (MON, 19 in 48, $600k); Mathieu Darche(MON, 20 in 44, $500k); Marcel Goc (NSH, 20 in 44, $775k); Cal O’Reilly (NSH, 18 in 38, $562,500); Sergie Kostitsyn (NSH, 26 in 46, $550k); Blake Comeau (NYI, 30 in 48, $650k); PA Parenteau (NYI, 30 in 48, $600k); Frans Nielsen (NYI, 21 in 42, $525k for two years); Artem Ansimov (NYR, 26 in 52, $821,666); Brian Boyle (NYR, 27 in 52, $525k); Brandon Prust (NYR, 19 in 52, $800k); Lauri Korpikoski (PHX, 25 in 51, $700k); Eric Belanger (PHX, 23 in 51, $750k); Tyler Kennedy (PIT, 22 in 49, $725k); Mark Letestu (PIT, 20 in 50, $500k, up to $625k for two thereafter); Vladmir Sobotka (STL, 21 in 45, $750k); Matt D’Agostini (STL, 24 in 49, $550k). Just to name a few.
Not to mention Claude Giroux and Ville Leino.
Now, sure – some of those are entry-level contracts, and some are absolutely NOT trade bait. But the argument that there was NO ONE cheaper and better … well, I hate absolutes. And it felt like you were picking on him.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Feb 1, 2011 12:30 AM EST up reply actions
I appreciate this comment more than what I’m about to say will appear. Just let me get that out of the way first.
I didn’t say there was no one cheaper and better, I said:
But you have yet to come up with anybody who is better and cheaper than Nodl.
As far as those you just listed, there are a lot of players in there that are better and cheaper. I’ll begin with Teddy Purcell. He’s facing fourth-line competition with third-line teammates, with second-line zone starts. He’s got a good relative plus/minus and a good Corsi, despite terrible on-ice shooting. I like him, and while I think he’s an upgrade on Nodl, I’m not convinced he is a better fit right now on the team.
Before going further, I’ll explain that last sentence. Right now, the best way to judge Nodl isn’t by his point totals. He’s playing on a line who is being asked to play sound defense, forecheck hard, and face the other team’s second lines. The Flyers are using Carter and Richards to shut down the other teams’ top two lines while starting in the defensive zone, allowing Briere to face third-line competition in the offensive zone. Nodl is a huge part of that (as are Richards, Carter, Giroux, and JVR). For this year, an upgrade to Nodl is a two-way player (similar to Nodl) who can score more than Nodl. Purcell fits the second category, but I’m not convinced he can fit the first. Maybe he can, maybe he can’t.
Other players on your list I like: Nate Thompson, Bryan Bickell, Brandon Sutter, Jeff Halpern, Blake Comeau, Brian Boyle, Brandon Prust, Eric Belanger, Tyler Kennedy, and Matt D’Agostini.
But now, who would I trade Nodl for? Bickell, Sutter, Comeau, Boyle, and Kennedy.
Are any of them on the trading block? Maybe, maybe Comeau.
So if the Flyers are offered Blake Comeau, I’d consider trading Andreas Nodl (so long as no picks go to NYI, nor any other prospects).
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by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 1, 2011 9:39 AM EST up reply actions
No offense taken – I did qualify my statement with ‘arguably’ better. I think perhaps part of that argument is whether you want a shutdown-type line with Richie and JVR, or just a blow-‘em-outta-the-water line that can play defense AND score. Nodl is defensively responsible, no doubt. But isn’t the best defense a good offense? Don’t the Flyers have the most expensive defense (and possibly the deepest) in the league? How much defense do you need from your forwards? I absolutely applaud Carter for returning to a two-way game, rather than the point-mongering he did last year. And even Briere seems to have realized that playing in his own zone once in a while won’t cause warts. Do you really need a defensive specialist on your ‘third’ line? Is Nodl really that effective against the likes of Crosby, Ovechkin, or the Sedins? Sure – I believe that Richie is the centerman you want out against those opponents, but who are his wingers? Ideally, you’d have someone like a Simon Gagne: defensively sound and offensively talented. I’d argue that Nodl is only sound defensively – his offense is suspect, at best. Would that line be effective with a mild reduction in defense, but an upgrade in offense? Could they be cycling the puck in the offensive zone, rather than backchecking? I’m not sure, and it is hard to mess with what has been a winning formula thus far.
Specifically, I don’t believe Purcell is better than Nodl defensively. But he is certainly an upgrade offensively. So if you decide that pressing the attack keeps the opponent out of your net, I’d do it. If, however, you want someone to relieve pressure in your own zone – no, Purcell isn’t an upgrade in that system.
Most of the other players you liked are really not trade bait – and certainly not for Nodl straight-up. But I could easily see this scenario, where Nodl AND Zherdev go for a player like Nick Foligno or Taylor Pyatt and a pick. You’d then have the LBH line, Carter centering JVR and Giroux, and Richie between Powe and Foligno/Pyatt, with Betts centering Girlyname and Carcillo. It does weaken your fourth line, but it helps the long-term view on the wings in the top three for sure as well as aiding the cap situation.
Oh, and Comeau for Nodl, straight up? DONE DEAL, no hesitation. You’d ‘consider’ it??? REALLY?!?!?!?
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Feb 1, 2011 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
The way the Flyers are built right now, they are built around creating opportunities for Briere. Period. The other three lines are asked to counter-attack and play defense. And it’s working. I believe Powe and Nodl are huge contributors to that, even if they don’t require a top-9 spot.
I think perhaps part of that argument is whether you want a shutdown-type line with Richie and JVR, or just a blow-‘em-outta-the-water line that can play defense AND score.
Here’s the thing: Yes, that’s a huge part of the argument. But since when is JVR a “shutdown-type” winger? The only reason the Richards line is even talked about being “shutdown-type” right now is Richie and Nodl. And even then I’d disagree that it’s a shutdown line. Carter/Giroux is a shutdown line which brings me to the next point:
The Flyers have a “blow-’em-outta-the-water line that can play defense AND score.” It’s Zherdev-Carter-Giroux. Richards is playing second-line opposition with a winger who can score (JVR) but can’t really play defense. The only way he’s able to face second-line opposition (which, again, allows Briere to run wild and thus, the Flyers to succeed) is if you have a defensively responsible forward in Nodl there.
So your point about Nodl facing Crosby, Ovechkin, or the Sedins isn’t accurate. It’s Carter facing Crosby; Giroux facing Ovechkin; and Carter/Giroux facing the Sedins. Nodl would get stuck covering your Dupuis’ and Knubles’ and Burrows’. Which he can very easily do.
As far as Nodl’s offensive game, I ask: Why do you need him to score? You ask how much defense do you need from your forwards, I ask how much offense do you need? Hartnell, Briere, Leino aren’t playing defense. Ever. Zherdev and JVR are your offensive players who try their hardest in the defensive zone because they have to. So you have 5 of your top-9 devoted to offense, and you’re trying to get rid of Nodl because you don’t have enough?
If you get more offense in place of Nodl, imagine a line of Zherdev – Richards – JVR. We don’t have to, because they tried that and it failed. Miserably. Would I rather have Gagne than Nodl? Holy hell, yes. But we live in a salary cap world and the Flyers chose Meszaros/Walker/Shelley over Gagne.
As far as your Foligno/Pyatt scenario, I hate that. Hate it. Nodl and Zherdev for Foligno and a pick? That’s an extreme overpayment. Foligno – while I like him – has been stuck on the 4th line in Ottawa for a long time. Pyatt is a replacement level player available for dirt cheap on the FA market every year. You’re getting rid of a good, cheap player in Nodl and an inexpensive, good rental in Zherdev for… an underperforming over priced player.
Comeau for Nodl: I’d consider it this year. If that deal came in the offseason, I’d lean toward taking it, except for his injury history and the salary cap. I’d want to know how much money he wanted, and if it was less than $1.25 million, I’d most likely do it. But this year, Nodl fits the Flyers better than Comeau.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 1, 2011 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
1) Absolutely agree that the line is only considered a ‘shutdown line’ due to Richie and Nodl, not JVR.
2) Also agree that it isn’t a traditional shutdown line, due to the presence of JVR and the scoring ability of Richie.
3) Totally DISAGREE that Carter/G/Z is a shutdown line in the traditional sense – I only agree IF we accept the posit that good offensive possession equals good defense. I mean, Zherdev? Backchecking??? I’ve seen it, but I’ve also seen white tigers and two-headed goats.
4) Understand your point about Carter playing against Sid and Ovie – but need proof in numbers to shake my perception that Richards is the one Laviolette tries to get on the ice against the really, really big guys.
5) Good (if not excellent) point regarding defensive requirements from your forwards. Of course, ideally you have a balance – which is your hypothesis with the ‘5-of-9’ (Borg reference?). I would say this is not always the case; simply look at the defensive-minded teams like NJ and Buffalo, or compare them to the defensemen-are-for-defense teams like LA or Colorado. Given the strength of the Flyers defense, I feel they CAN concentrate more on offense from the forwards. Perhaps not to the full exclusion of defense, but maybe a shade more than currently.
6) The Foligno or Pyatt idea is not just about the impact this year – it’s about the cap implications for next as well. Pyatt is a power forward, albeit not a particularly talented one, that could be a banger on one of the top three lines (a la Hartnell). Foligno allows Powe to move up a line to Richie’s. Sure, you could argue that each possibly is a slight (VERY slight) detriment to the team, but considering that Foligno carries a cap hit of $1.2 million and Pyatt $1mil the aggregate gain in cap space lets the Flyers sign the important players like Leino and Powe for next year without any problems.
7) Blake Comeau is $650k cap hit, with RFA status next year. If he comes here, and you offer him that $1.25m – are you sold? That’s a lot of points added to the right wing lineup, for DAMN cheap. You’re basically doubling your production at the third-line right wing (if not more, since Comeau does it for the Isles now) for a whopping $90k increase. SOLD, SOLD, SOLD!!!!
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Feb 1, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
3) I’m not saying Carter/G/Z is a traditional shutdown line. I’m saying it is playing as the shutdown line. That’s how Lavy has been using them this year, and it’s working. Yes, part of it was with Powe instead of Z, but just like Richie’s line, you put Kimmo, Coburn, Carter, and Giroux on the ice at the same time, you’re getting a shutdown line. But the whole “Z doesn’t play D” thing really, really needs to stop. He plays D. He’s been getting better and better as the year goes on (as has JVR). Just because they aren’t great at it doesn’t mean Z is any less responsible than Briere or Leino, because he’s not.
4) I’d rather not go through all the game logs right now, but when Travis posts the Recaps, click on the “Head-to-Head TOI” link, and you can see it. I looked at Richards’ matchups in November, and for Games 8 through 13 (yes, only 6 games) he wasn’t getting the top line. And just in the last game, Carter got Gionta, Pacioretty, Gomez, and Plekanec for 5 minutes or more each, while Richards got Kostitsyn, Plekanec, and Eller the most, but none for even 5 minutes.
Maybe I’ll revisit that, because Todd mentioned that Lavy may be alternating Richie and Carter, and the idea fascinates me.
5) I don’t know Borg, so no, not a reference. haha. I’m also not saying the Flyers can’t go toward more offense, just that if they went that route, they’d be putting a ton more pressure on Richie/Nodl/JVR, since Carter/Giroux would be let loose in the offensive zone. I’m not saying Nodl/JVR can’t shut down Ovie and Crosby’s wingers (haha, they probably can’t, but I’m not saying that), I’m just saying the team as constructed would be weakened if they took Carter or Richie’s line and used them as offense first. Maybe a Z – Carter – JVR line would be a good “all offense” line, but then you’re using G and Richie to play ~16 tough minutes a night through June (including their PK time), which is difficult. I don’t know. Interesting theory.
6) I don’t see Foligno or Pyatt as helping though. Absolutely no need to trade for Pyatt ever and Foligno isn’t worth Nodl and Zherdev. As far as the cap implications for next year, Nodl will be a good value, and he shouldn’t cost much more than Pyatt does now, if he even costs more at all. Foligno for Lehtivuori and Legein? Maybe, (probably not enough for Ottawa, whatever) but I think Legein can battle for an NHL job next year. Especially in Ottawa.
My point is, the Flyers will be hard pressed to re-sign Leino anyway, and trading Nodl doesn’t help that. Would Foligno be a good value? Certainly. But the Flyers need all the young, cheap forwards they can get (Powe, Nodl, Wellwood, etc.). Don’t be shocked if Rinaldo is on the team as a 13th forward, just because he costs $544k.
7) I really, really like Blake Comeau. Don’t get me wrong. His health would still scare me, but if you sign him for $1.25 million, you likely backed into a Bartulis/Syvret and Backlund combination dressing every night next year. Or you don’t re-sign Leino. The finances next year will be tight, so while Comeau is a good deal, he’s a health risk that requires additional depth. If you told me I could somehow have Nodl and Comeau on the third line next year, I’d be ecstatic.
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 1, 2011 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
Quick shot – Richie was on-ice vs. Lecavalier 5.4 minutes; Carter vs. Lecavalier, 2.0. Richie vs. Stamkos, 5.5, Carter 3.1. Carter played most of his minutes against Moore and Thompson – third and fourth-line guys. Richards was out against BOTH Vinny and Stamkos (although I haven’t quite made out how, except PK time) more.
I think this bears looking into – and preferably by someone who’s a better stats guy than myself!
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Feb 2, 2011 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
haha, that is interesting. I think Todd has a point then, with Lavy alternating Carter and Richards in shutdown roles.
Maybe I will look at that.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 2, 2011 9:47 AM EST up reply actions
Isn’t this simply due to being on the road? If were in our own zone, we really have two choices, Betts or Richie. We pick Richie, they pick either line or vice versa?
That could have something to do with it, yeah.
I really want to look at this now. Maybe that’s my new project.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 2, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
I had a quick look at about 10 games. Zone starts go all over the place, but Mike was typically getting the harder work. The harder thing for me was trying to determine which was the opponents “top line” that Lavy was trying to matchup against.
Mourning Gagne forever.
Yeah, I’m in the middle of creating a spreadsheet with the top three opponents and top three linemates for both Richards and Carter in every game.
It’ll take time, but I’ll get it done.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 3, 2011 9:34 AM EST up reply actions
More desired than me. The zone-starts graph I made is too cluttered to be worth showing to anyone, but it’s cool to see very clear trends.
Mourning Gagne forever.
I’m so far shocked by what I’ve seen.
Richards’ linemates don’t change in game very often at all. He also will see about 90% of his ice time against one particular player (their best) one night, then about 50% of his time against one particular player another.
Also, if you look at Game 32 v. Pittsburgh, Lavy switched his lines to stack Richie, Giroux, and Nodl against Crosby, Malkin, and Dupuis. He then left that line together for at least 5 games.
So I think, if the Flyers meet a team like Pittsburgh, the Flyers deploy Richie/Giroux/Nodl against Crosby/Malkin, if they’re on the same line. It was fascinating for me.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 3, 2011 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
I take back the qualifier – Nodl is right up there with Richards on TOI against St. Louis, so it must not be PK time.
(I missed the game, by pure luck.)
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Feb 2, 2011 12:02 AM EST up reply actions
The information in the links are 5-on-5 only.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 2, 2011 9:47 AM EST up reply actions
Oh, and thanks for the detailed responses – I do appreciate the discourse, and respect your answers. I was starting to think people were still avoiding me because of the screen name (6 comments to date on my last fanpost ….)
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Feb 1, 2011 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
haha, any time. You came with names, and I love hypotheticals. In fact, in answering that last one, I went to CapGeek’s calculator and came up with:
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Daniel Briere ($6.500m) / Ville Leino ($2.300m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m) / Jeff Carter ($5.272m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m)
Blake Comeau ($1.250m) / Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Andreas Nodl ($1.000m)
Darroll Powe ($0.925m) / Blair Betts ($0.700m) / Jody Shelley ($1.100m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m) / Ian Laperriere ($1.166m)
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Matt Carle ($3.437m)
Braydon Coburn ($3.200m) / Oskars Bartulis ($0.600m)
/ Danny Syvret ($0.650m)
GOALTENDERS
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m) /Johan Backlund ($0.800m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $61,805,266; BONUSES: $1,700,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): -$2,405,266
With Lappy going on LTIR, that team will fit under the salary cap (without a bonus cushion) assuming a cap increase of ~$1.1million. (And barring any cap penalties due to an inability to pay bonuses this year). 6th D is weakened, backup goalie is weakened, and 13th forward is weakened, but Richie’s wing is upgraded, and most of the team stays the same.
In fact, the biggest downside of that roster is probably the lack of turnover. That never happens. There will be more turnover than that. And Comeau will have to demand a trade for it to happen, but the Flyers are in a similar position as last year: Minor holes, very tight budget… watch them eff it up.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 1, 2011 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
The most interesting thing about that lineup you ran in Capgeek is that you can see a certain single salary that stands way out of the crowd (at least I do). You’ve got 10 wingers, 9 of whom make $3.75 m or less (and that’s counting G as a winger, which he ain’t) and ONE of whom makes $4.2 million. Anyone else see the albatross around their neck that clearly??? (Beats dead horse …)
But overall, your point is well taken about both the inability to maintain the current lineup given even a slight increase in salaries due to trade, as well as the lack of turnover. I would say that definitely argues for one of the larger salaries to be traded away so that two perhaps lesser lights can be signed. (WHACK WHACK …)
And rather than post two replies – I do kid about Z playing D. He HAS been a helluva lot better lately, even to the point of being impressive with his plays at his own blueline. He even laid some good solid hits in the last game. Resigning him woudl certainly not be a bad option, given that he is probably the most pure goal-scorer on the team, and he may be inclined to stay in Philly at a similar price next season. Obviously, to keep him, the cap needs to increase by his salary or we need more economical options on wing elsewhere in the lineup. (Thwack! Thwump!)
Lastly, God save us from Zac Rinaldo. I thought we traded version 1.0 to Tampa already … and we already have one winger who’s a minor-penalty-magnet. (Any Frenchies in the audience? Fresh meat for cheap!!!)
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Feb 1, 2011 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
haha, it’s crazy, I don’t disagree with anything in there.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 1, 2011 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
Oh my. You gotta say it. No one else seems to think it’s a good idea … you have to just say the words. Just once, say it with me –
TRADE SCOTT HARTNELL.
(And for my own sake and sanity, I’ll add a pretty-please to Holmgren.)
Maybe even wait until after the Cup run, since apparently everyone thinks the LBH line is sacrosanct – but somehow, before next season’s signings start, you gotta drop that monster overpayment for 23 minor penalties in someone else’s pocket. Hell – take Downie back if you have to; at least Downie has youth and a lower cap hit (considerably, $2.35 million less in fact) for basically the same issues and similar point production. This is also the role that I was suggesting Pyatt for, albeit with less scoring due to limited facial hair.
SAY IT!!!!
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Feb 1, 2011 11:50 PM EST up reply actions
I was on that bandwagon last year, but this year I’m on the “Don’t trade anything away until the offseason” bandwagon.
Then I’ll join the Hartnell wagon.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 2, 2011 9:46 AM EST up reply actions
Fair enough – I’ll save you a seat on the ’wagon for after the season.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Feb 2, 2011 9:50 AM EST up reply actions
I doubt Knuble, relative to his cost, increases your chances of winning the cup that much more with the team stacked the way it is now. It’s the ye olde marginal utility problem. If there wasn’t a cap I’d agree but with this caveat – you can reach a tipping point even in a uncapped system (unless your the Yankees) where the fallout from mortgaging your future for the present can be substantial and require years just to build a .500 team.
But hey, all it could take is an injury tomorrow night and suddenly the variables in the equation are subject to change.
BEST LINE OF THIS WHOLE PIECE
What do I think? If it aint broke, don’t fix it.
My EXACT SENTIMENTS – BEST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE, DONT MESS WITH SUCESS.
We have other “Good” Problems to think about, Like which Goalie will be the Starter for the Playoffs, Which Phantom Rookie deserves to be called up in April for the playoffs as an Extra Utility Player, and what do we do with Leighton and Walker come Trade Deadline time.
YA MEAN ?
FLYERROB ! YOU STAY AWESOME FLYERS FANS ! www.naawayland.com Robert Wilson
which Goalie will be the Starter for the Playoffs
This is a good question. But I think the answer will become clear by the end of March.
Which Phantom Rookie deserves to be called up in April for the playoffs as an Extra Utility Player
Speaking only rookies, Eric Wellwood and Erik Gustafsson.
what do we do with Leighton and Walker come Trade Deadline time.
Shop them like it’s Black Friday.
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 1, 2011 9:42 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah thats what I figured for all Three of those questions. I also think that Non Rookie call up will be Syvret and Bartulis (Gosh I hope not Bartulis).
I do think we will shop Leighton and Walker. Someone like FLORIDA or another team out of the Playoffs will be interested in Leighton or Walker.
Even Chicago, on the 8th playoff spot bubble area would be interested in Leighton as a short term plug because Crawford is still a bit green.
FLYERROB ! YOU STAY AWESOME FLYERS FANS ! www.naawayland.com Robert Wilson
Bartulis is still on the roster, haha. As far as other non-rookie callups, look for Kalinski and Legein to join Syvret.
Florida is a great team to mention about Leighton. Vokoun is a UFA at the end of the season, and while they have Jakub Markstrom, he’s struggled this year. I doubt Vokoun will get the money he deserves (and wants), but Florida may want insurance in case he leaves. A Leighton/Clemmensen combination could buy them time to get Markstrom ready for 12-13.
As far as Chicago, I highly, highly doubt they want him. They are a much better team than 8th in the West, and they have Crawford/Turco, which is just fine. Besides, I don’t think any playoff team will bite on the “Leighton is a playoff goalie!” line. Detroit may want insurance if Osgood is still hurt, but besides them and Ottawa, I don’t see a market for Leighton (unless there’s an injury) until the draft.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 1, 2011 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
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