Scoring Chances, Game 2: Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils

by ToddtheFox on Oct 10, 2011 9:11 PM EDT in Philadelphia Flyers Scoring Chances

While it appeared the Flyers controlled most of the play through the first two periods, the Devils actually led in scoring chances 12-9. However, the third period was entirely Flyers as they outchanced the Devils 6-0, and continued their third period dominance from the Bruins game.

Both powerplays were poor, the Flyers only getting five chances on their eight powerplays, although you could argue the Simmonds goal was set up on the powerplay. The Devils managed three from their five powerplays (all in the first period over 26 seconds). Additionally, the Flyers got two short handed chances through breakaways to Nodl and Couturier.

Check out In Lou We Trust for a Devils take on the games chances.

Period	Totals		EV		PP		5v3 PP		SH		5v3 SH
1	5	7	3	4	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0
2	4	5	2	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
3	6	0	3	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	15	12	8	9	5	0	0	0	2	3	0	0

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20012

Team	Period	Time	Note	PHI						Opponent
PHI	1	18:33	Voracek	21	25	30	44	48	93	8	16	24	28	30		5v4
NJD	1	17:25	Parise	17	20	28	30	41	68	6	9	15	26	29	30	5v5
PHI	1	14:48	Briere	6	17	30	41	48	93	5	6	8	12	17	30	5v5
NJD	1	12:39	Parise	14	20	27	30	44		5	9	17	23	26	30	4v5
NJD	1	12:18	Elias	14	20	27	30	44		5	9	17	23	26	30	4v5
NJD	1	12:13	Elias	14	20	27	30	44		5	9	17	23	26	30	4v5
NJD	1	9:40	Sykora	19	20	21	24	30	44	5	6	9	15	26	30	5v5
PHI	1	8:10	Giroux	6	21	25	28	30	68	7	8	12	17	29	30	5v5
PHI	1	7:56	Giroux GOAL	6	21	25	28	30	68	7	8	12	17	29	30	5v5
NJD	1	5:45	Elias	5	15	27	30	36	44	5	6	9	15	26	30	5v5
NJD	1	4:41	Tallinder	20	21	25	28	30	68	7	8	12	17	28	30	5v5
PHI	1	0:12	Nodl bkwy	15	24	25	30	41		8	12	15	17	29	30	4v5
PHI	2	16:50	Couturier bkwy	14	20	27	30	44		9	17	23	26	29	30	4v5
PHI	2	13:30	JVR ms	5	14	21	24	30	44	7	8	12	17	29	30	5v5
PHI	2	10:56	Briere post	21	25	30	41	48	93	7	9	11	29	30		5v4
NJD	2	6:37	Zubrus	6	14	19	24	30	41	7	8	17	23	29	30	5v5
NJD	2	4:41	Larson	5	28	30	41	68		5	6	15	17	30		4v4
PHI	2	2:00	JVR	21	25	28	30	41	68	5	6	8	17	23	30	5v5
NJD	2	1:32	Palmieri	24	25	28	30	41	68	5	8	12	17	24	30	5v5
NJD	2	0:04	Parise deflect	6	17	25	30	48	93	7	9	15	26	29	30	5v5
NJD	2	0:02	Sykora ms	6	17	25	30	48	93	7	9	15	26	29	30	5v5
PHI	3	18:43	Voracek ms	17	20	25	30	48	93	7	14	15	17	28	30	5v5
PHI	3	17:21	Read GOAL	5	14	19	24	30	44	5	6	11	12	17	30	5v5
PHI	3	15:10	Simmonds GOAL	17	20	28	30	41	68	12	17	24	26	28	30	5v5
PHI	3	13:30	Jagr ms	17	20	28	30	41	68	9	24	26	28	30		5v4
PHI	3	12:36	Voracek post	21	25	28	30	44	93	6	9	16	24	30		5v4
PHI	3	3:21	Simmonds rbd	17	20	28	30	41	68	8	14	24	28	30		5v4

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
5	B. COBURN	16:30	2	2	0:57	0	0	2:04	0	0
6	A. LILJA	11:51	3	3	0:49	0	0	0:00	0	0
14	S. COUTURIER	9:07	2	1	0:48	0	0	4:05	1	3
15	A. NODL	7:18	0	1	0:00	0	0	3:10	1	0
17	W. SIMMONDS	8:21	3	3	3:51	2	0	0:41	0	0
19	S. HARTNELL	9:45	1	2	1:39	0	0	0:00	0	0
20	C. PRONGER	11:26	2	3	5:57	2	0	5:34	1	3
21	J. VAN RIEMSDYK	9:57	4	2	7:36	3	0	0:00	0	0
24	M. READ	10:42	2	3	1:51	0	0	3:21	1	0
25	M. CARLE	12:37	4	4	7:25	3	0	1:10	1	0
27	M. TALBOT	8:41	0	1	0:00	0	0	4:33	1	3
28	C. GIROUX	9:41	4	4	6:14	3	0	0:58	0	0
30	I. BRYZGALOV	37:19	8	9	14:11	5	0	8:24	2	3
36	Z. RINALDO	7:16	0	1	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
41	A. MESZAROS	11:32	3	4	7:08	3	0	2:50	1	0
44	K. TIMONEN	11:40	2	2	6:06	2	0	5:10	1	3
48	D. BRIERE	10:31	2	2	7:11	2	0	0:00	0	0
68	J. JAGR	8:44	4	4	5:27	2	0	0:00	0	0
93	J. VORACEK	9:23	2	2	7:56	3	0	0:00	0	0

Even strength play

Best forward - JVR, +2
Worst forward - Nodl, Hartnell, Talbot, Rinaldo, Read, -1
Worst defender - Meszaros, -1 (all other defenders were even).

Head to Head (even strength) chances

Click to enlarge

The Parise-Elias-Sykora line was able to outchance nearly every single Flyer, except for Giroux, Jagr and Meszaros who came out even and Couturier who was not on the ice for a chance against the Devils top line. Where the Flyers were able to gain some dominance though was against the Kovalchuk line, who suffered against the top three Flyers line and every defensive pairing.

The chances tell a very different story to the lopsided 3-0 scoreline and in future Devils games the Parise-Elias combination will be one to watch out for.

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Comments

I also should mention that there is are people looking at tracking touches for games. This would require a bit of time (more than I have) and dedication.

If you’re interested check out this post by Tyler Dellow and send him an email. From just a single game he was able to get a lot of interesting information.

Tracking the Flyers scoring chances at Broad Street Hockey

by ToddtheFox on Oct 10, 2011 9:20 PM EDT reply actions

Rec'd

Great post.

by The Reddgie on Oct 10, 2011 9:20 PM EDT reply actions

I’m just now reading up on this stat and I kinda understand it now. Looks like we didn’t fare too well even strength against the Devils and that the extra PPs we had allowed us the extra scoring chances. Makes sense why I felt Bryz was saving our bacon early — because he was.

by fiveredapples on Oct 11, 2011 4:54 AM EDT reply actions

I mean…a lot of their chances weren’t really too dangerous, whereas Brodeur really saved them on a number of dangerous chances. An average goalie facing what we were putting on net would have let a couple more in.

by captj on Oct 11, 2011 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions

This is true. The difference in shot maps is pretty striking (click to close the summary thing and you’ll see it).

@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey

by Eric T. on Oct 11, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Interesting note: a couple of Caps bloggers have tracked scoring chances using completely different criteria.

One goes strictly by location: a shot on or towards net from the “scoring area” is counted as a chance.

The other goes by “pucker factor”: if it looks like a chance to score, he counts it as a chance.

The raw numbers, as you would expect, differ widely. But the percentages do not.

Patron saint of quality footwear.

by fat_daddyo on Oct 11, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions

I heart shot maps!

by chrislanci on Oct 11, 2011 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought they had some decent chances but certainly nothing like the two short-handed break-aways we had. So I agree with you.

That said, talk of ‘dangerous chances’ and ‘not really too dangerous chances’ defeats whatever we gain using this stat of ‘scoring chances.’ That is, you can’t really piggyback on ‘scoring chances’ to make a point about dangerous and not really dangerous scoring chances because you’d then be reverting back to our intuitive grasp of what’s happening out there and not using the stats appropriately. Please, correct me if I’m wrong, but that’s what it seems like to me.

I think we have to stick to talking about ‘scoring chances’ as defined by the matrix we’re using. We can of course intuitively diffferentiate between better or worse scoring chances, but then aren’t we abandoning whatever ‘scoring chances’ were supposed to tell us in the first place?

by fiveredapples on Oct 11, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions

.

I think we have to stick to talking about ‘scoring chances’ as defined by the matrix we’re using. We can of course intuitively diffferentiate between better or worse scoring chances, but then aren’t we abandoning whatever ‘scoring chances’ were supposed to tell us in the first place?

I agree. Not all scoring chances are equal, but for the sake of this study we have to assume they are. It’s more about looking at teams/players who are able to get the puck into areas of higher scoring chance than the quality of the chance.

I always like to use these goal charts as an example of why we count chances from the area we do.

Flyersgoals

Nearly all goals scored or allowed by the Flyers last season came from an area approximately where a chance counts from. I’d estimate that if we looked at chance area vs. non chance area then the goal % would be in the high 70s.

Tracking the Flyers scoring chances at Broad Street Hockey

by ToddtheFox on Oct 11, 2011 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions