FanPost

New +/- System

 

Over the past few days I decided to take a look at the best variables from plus/minus and corsi to create my own “plus-minus” system. Only scoring plays will be looked at (I just don’t have the resources to do it for every chance/shot etc.) but I attempt to eliminate the variables. For instance, Claude Giroux blocks a shot at the point, chases it down, buries the break-away attempt. Why should anyone else get credited with a “plus-1” when Claude was accountable for 100% of that goal? On the defensive side, if Chris Pronger’s pass gets intercepted when he’s going point-to-point, why should any forwards get a “minus-1” for that play? The answer to both above questions is “they shouldn’t.” Statistics are very quantitative and the reason that my system is different is because it takes general hockey strategy and variability into account. Let’s look at an example from the first even strength goal of the season scored in Boston on October 6th by Jake Voracek. Take a look at the goal.

                Traditional hockey stats would award a goal to Voracek, a primary assist to Meszaros, and a secondary assist to Simmonds with all five players (Carle and Briere included) getting “plus-1.” Here’s how I broke it down:

·         Voracek was responsible for 50% of that goal with his being in good position for the rebound and driving it home.

·         Wayne Simmonds drive to the net and pass to Meszaros is good for 20%.

·         Meszaros’ drive from the point gets 20%.

·         Briere drawing Chara gets 5% and Matt Carle gets 5% for the (not seen in the video)original drive into the zone.

There was a lot going on during that play, lots of players were involved and they all deserve some form of credit. Now lets take a look at a different kind of example, the first goal from that game  (on the power play, but that doesn’t matter because I break the stats up into 5-on-5, 5-on-4, and 4-on-5).

·         Outlet by Pronger to Jagr gets Pronger 10%.

·         Jagr’s sweet pass to Giroux: 20%

·         Giroux handling the pass, turning Chara inside out and finishing: 70%

This play shows why this rating system can be implemented and effective because it shows who really did the scoring and who really messed up the defensive assignments. Here's a defensive example: (go to 1:38)

·         Giroux: He gets 10% for his weak attempt to clear the puck by batting it with his stick. Probably should have gone for the body in an attempt to tie up the puck in the slot.

·         Jagr: Mishandles Coburn’s outlet leading to the turnover. When Coburn over pursues to the opposite side of the net, Jagr is not able to cover quick enough, leaving the scorer with the easy put back. 45%

·         Coburn: 50%. Handcuffs Jagr on the outlet. Over pursues leaving Sedin all alone with no one to cover for him.

·         Timonen: He was there, good effort on the block, but defenders should get some responsibility when there is a goal in front: 5%.

·         vanReimsdyk: 0%

This is the textbook example defensivly because there were people at fault (Coby/Jagr) and people not at fault (JVR). Now that you understand the system, here’s the data for the past four games in all three situations:

PlayerDateOpponentH/APeriodScore% For%Against 
Voracek 6-Oct Boston A 1 0 0.5   Play in, positioning, goal
Simmonds 6-Oct Boston A 1 0 0.2   Drive to net and play to Mez
Meszaros 6-Oct Boston A 1 0 0.2   Point Blast/Primary Assist
Briere 6-Oct Boston A 1 0 0.05   Drawing Chara
Carle 6-Oct Boston A 1 0 0.05   Original play in
Giroux 8-Oct New Jersey A 1 0 0.4   Find hole and snipe
vanReimsdyk 8-Oct New Jersey A 1 0 0.4   Strong on puck and no look dish
Lilja 8-Oct New Jersey A 1 0 0    
Jagr 8-Oct New Jersey A 1 0 0.05   Draws attention to clear G
Carle 8-Oct New Jersey A 1 0 0.15   Great keep, play-in to secondary
Hartnell 8-Oct New Jersey A 3 1 0.4   Pick up loose puck and primary
Read 8-Oct New Jersey A 3 1 0.4   Find hole and score
Couturier 8-Oct New Jersey A 3 1 0   Good spacing to clear for Read
Goalie 8-Oct New Jersey A 3 1 0.2   Bad goal on Brodeur
Coburn 8-Oct New Jersey A 3 1 0    
Timonen 8-Oct New Jersey A 3 1 0    
Simmonds 8-Oct New Jersey A 3 2 0.6   Starts w/ pass to Prongs, finishes strong
Giroux 8-Oct New Jersey A 3 2 0   Stays on post, unchecked
Pronger 8-Oct New Jersey A 3 2 0.2   Draws attention and secondary
Meszaros 8-Oct New Jersey A 3 2 0.2   Blast/ primary
Jagr 8-Oct New Jersey A 3 2 0    
Jagr 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 1 0.15   Stick lift to set up primary
Giroux 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 1 0.25   Interception, center/primary
vanReimsdyk 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 1 0.55   deflection, rebound, roof
Lilja 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 1 0    
Coburn 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 1 0    
Briere 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 1 0.05   Dump and change
Giroux 12-Oct Vancouver H 2 2   0.1 Whacks at puck instead of positioning
vanReimsdyk 12-Oct Vancouver H 2 2   0  
Jagr 12-Oct Vancouver H 2 2   0.45 Turnover/fail to cover Coburn
Timonen 12-Oct Vancouver H 2 2   0.05 In scrum in front
Coburn 12-Oct Vancouver H 2 2   0.4 Handcuff's Jagr on TO/ over pursues leaving scorer
Voracek 12-Oct Vancouver H 2 1 0.5   Playin, find hole, snipe
Couturier 12-Oct Vancouver H 2 1 0.375   Strong on puck/primary
Timonen 12-Oct Vancouver H 2 1 0.1   secondary/holds guy on post, away from 14
Coburn 12-Oct Vancouver H 2 1 0    
Briere 12-Oct Vancouver H 2 1 0.025   Holds guy on porch, in office
Pronger 12-Oct Vancouver H 2 2   0.5 Miscommunication leaving scorer alone
Nodl 12-Oct Vancouver H 2 2   0  
Talbot 12-Oct Vancouver H 2 2   0  
Rinaldo 12-Oct Vancouver H 2 2   0  
Timonen 12-Oct Vancouver H 2 2   0.5 Miscommunication leaving scorer alone
Meszaros 12-Oct Vancouver H 3 0 0.45   Finds hole and snipe
Briere 12-Oct Vancouver H 3 0 0.45   Great find
Coburn 12-Oct Vancouver H 3 0 0.1   Positioning/screen/rush
vanReimsdyk 12-Oct Vancouver H 3 0 0   Change-in
Jagr 12-Oct Vancouver H 3 0 0   Change-in
Pronger 15-Oct Los Angelos H 3 0   0  
vanReimsdyk 15-Oct Los Angelos H 3 0   0  
Giroux 15-Oct Los Angelos H 3 0   0  
Jagr 15-Oct Los Angelos H 3 0   0.1 In scrum infront
Carle 15-Oct Los Angelos H 3 0   0.75 Out of position to start and never recovered
Offense 15-Oct Los Angelos H 3 0   0.15 Dances around defender and burys rebound

That's the ES raw data, here is the cleaned up version:

PlayerPlus/MinusTimeper 60
Voracek 1 45.5 1.318681319
vanReimsdyk 0.95 47.75 1.193717277
Simmonds 0.8 44.5 1.078651685
Giroux 0.55 47 0.70212766
Briere 0.575 51.5 0.669902913
Read 0.4 38.83 0.61
Couturiere 0.375 39.5 0.569620253
Hartnell 0.4 42.75 0.561403509
Meszaros 0.4 51.5 0.466019417
Lilja 0 48 0
Nodl 0 27.66 0
Rinaldo 0 21.33 0
Talbot 0 35.25 0
Coburn -0.3 67 -0.268656716
Pronger -0.3 52 -0.346153846
Jagr -0.35 42.75 -0.49122807
Timonen -0.45 50.75 -0.532019704
Carle -0.55 61.5 -0.536585366
  3.5 815.07 0.00429411

Now the power play:

pmtoiReflectedper 60
Giroux 1.675 18.67 0.089716122 5.382967327
Jagr 0.775 17.75 0.043661972 2.61971831
Briere 0.75 18 0.041666667 2.5
Pronger 0.85 18.5 0.045945946 2.756756757
vanReimsdyk 0.425 18 0.023611111 1.416666667
Carle 0.325 17 0.019117647 1.147058824
Simmonds 0.175 14.83 0.011800405 0.708024275
Timonen 0.1 16 0.00625 0.375
Read 0.05 9.75 0.005128205 0.307692308
Voracek 0.05 17.25 0.002898551 0.173913043
Meszaros 0 11.33 0 0

 

Here is the raw 5-on-4 data:

PlayerDateOpponentH/APdScoreForAgainst 
Jagr 6-Oct Boston A 1 -1 0.2   Primary Assist
Giroux 6-Oct Boston A 1 -1 0.7   Dangle Chara and Timmy
Pronger 6-Oct Boston A 1 -1 0.1   Outlet/ Secondary
Meszaros 6-Oct Boston A 1 -1 0    
Simmonds 6-Oct Boston A 1 -1 0    
Pronger 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 0 0.25   Blast/primary
Giroux 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 0 0.45   Score from doorstep
Read 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 0 0.05   Secondary
Jagr 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 0 0    
Simmonds 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 0 0    
Bounce 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 0 0.25   Weird bounce right to Giroux
Pronger 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 1 0.525   Point blast/goal
Giroux 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 1 0.225   Board play/set-up/primary
Read 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 1      
Jagr 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 1 0.075   Board play
Simmonds 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 1 0.175   Board play/screen
Briere 15-Oct Los Angelos H 1 0 0.3   Doorstep tap-in
Jagr 15-Oct Los Angelos H 1 0 0.5   Beautiful pass
Pronger 15-Oct Los Angelos H 1 0 0.05   Secondary
Giroux 15-Oct Los Angelos H 1 0 0.05   Tertiary
vanReimsdyk 15-Oct Los Angelos H 1 0 0.1   Screen
Carle 15-Oct Los Angelos H 3 -1 0.325   Buries open net
vanReimsdyk 15-Oct Los Angelos H 3 -1 0.325   Finds open man
Briere 15-Oct Los Angelos H 3 -1 0.2   Boards/secondary
Voracek 15-Oct Los Angelos H 3 -1 0.05   boardplay
Timonen 15-Oct Los Angelos H 3 -1 0.1   carry/dump/boards

 

And now the raw 4v5:

PlayerDateOpponentH/APeriodScoreForAgainst 
Pronger 6-Oct Boston A 1 0   0.33 Miscommunication
Timonen 6-Oct Boston A 1 0   0.33 Miscommunication
Couturier 6-Oct Boston A 1 0   0  
Nodl 6-Oct Boston A 1 0   0  
Offense
6-Oct Boston A 1 0   0.33 Great outlet/breakaway
Giroux 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 2   0.5 Lets man go backdoor to doorstep for put-back
Pronger 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 2   0  
Talbot 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 2   0  
Timonen 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 2   0  
Offense 12-Oct Vancouver H 1 2   0.5 Point blast and rebound right to scorer
Talbot 12-Oct Vancouver H 3 1   0  
Couturiere 12-Oct Vancouver H 3 1   0.1 Doesn't block passing lane to scorer
Timonen 12-Oct Vancouver H 3 1   0.4 Doesn't block passing lane to scorer
Offense 12-Oct Vancouver H 3 1   0.5 Finds hole backdoor and roofs it
Pronger 12-Oct Vancouver H 3 1   0  
Couturier 15-Oct Los Angelos H 1 1   0.1 Comes up too high, leaves scorer in slot
Giroux 15-Oct Los Angelos H 1 1   0.2 Doesn't get to scorer in time
Coburn 15-Oct Los Angelos H 1 1   0  
Lilja 15-Oct Los Angelos H 1 1   0  
Offense 15-Oct Los Angelos H 1 1   0.7 Tic-Tac-Toe, very pretty

 

And the clean 4v5:

Gatoireflectedper 60
Talbot 0 25.66 0 0
Read 0 13.5 0 0
Nodl 0 12.83 0 0
Meszaros 0 12.75 0 0
Coburn 0 12.16 0 0
Giroux 0 5.5 0 0
Carle 0 3.25 0 0
Simmonds 0 0.66 0 0
Lilja 0 0.5 0 0
Couturier 0.2 19.33 0.010346611 0.620796689
Pronger 0.33 26 0.012692308 0.761538462
Timonen 0.73 26 0.028076923 1.684615385
Giroux 0.7 11.75 0.059574468 3.574468085

 

If anyone is good at pivot tables I think you can extract a lot more data out of my raw numbers. I can send this information to whoever would like it and I do plan on keeping these numbers for the foreseeable future to see if any patterns do develop. Other than that, tell me what you guys think?

 

 

UPDATED AFTER WASHINGTON GAME

Value= Raw +/-'s added up for net value

ESTOI/60= Assuming that is 5-5 so Claude's 4 on 4 goal last night would not count ***(how do you guys feel about adding 4 v 4 to the ES data)***

IPM/60= Individual Plus/Minus per 60. Making value relative to time on ice

PlayerValueESTOI/60IPM/60
Couturier 1.2 8.82 8.16
Voracek 0.9 10.62 5.08
vanReimsdyk 0.95 11.35 5.02
Talbot 0.65 7.85 4.97
Simmonds 0.8 11.82 4.06
Briere 0.575 13.27 2.60
Nodl 0.25 6.68 2.25
Meszaros 0 13.04 0.00
Read 0 10.76 0.00
Carle -0.025 15.41 -0.10
Giroux -0.05 11.19 -0.27
Hartnell -0.06 10.74 -0.34
Pronger -0.25 12.44 -1.21
Rinaldo -0.15 5.32 -1.69
Jagr -0.35 10.29 -2.04
Lilja -0.45 12.48 -2.16
Coburn -0.6 15.63 -2.30
Schenn -0.4 9.42 -2.55
Timonen -0.85 11.03

-4.62

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by <em>Broad Street Hockey</em>.

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