Chris Pronger Injury: So Uh... How Are The Flyers Replacing Him?
First, we all wish Chris Pronger a quick and complete recovery. Eye injuries are scary and that is true even if he was not a hockey player. Pronger's personal health is of the utmost concern.
Second, the Flyers have a problem. You can't replace Chris Pronger, but that's just what the Flyers will have to do.
Immediately, one has to imagine the Flyers will simply bump Andrej Meszaros up to the top-4 and rely heavily on him, Matt Carle, Kimmo Timonen, and Braydon Coburn to carry the defensive load with help from Andreas Lilja and Matt Walker. That's simple.
The problem is that the Flyers will not have seven healthy defenseman. Obviously, the Flyers could choose to go with only six defensemen and hope nobody gets hurt in the meantime. That's certainly a possibility with this team.
But the team goes on the road to Montreal on Wednesday before returning home for two games in Philadelphia on Thursday and Saturday. That's one back-to-back game this week with another next week. If someone gets sick or hurt, the Flyers would have a short window to analyze the injury, decide who to call up, get them to the game, and have them ready to play.
No big deal, right? Call up Erik Gustafsson or Blake Kessel or Kevin Marshall and your problem is solved.
Except the Flyers can't, since they only have $1,159 in daily spending available (or a $214,415 yearly cap hit) under their current Long-Term Injured Reserve exemption according to CapGeek. This is a problem.
But the Flyers do have options.
Disclaimer: the $1,159 daily cap space is far from a guarantee, however, since the contract situation surrounding Brayden Schenn is still a little unclear. Based on how much CapGeek has him costing the Flyers so far this season, they calculate him at a roughly $1.574 million cap hit. Other outlets report $1.705 million while still others report $1.690 million. In any event, the numbers used here are, at worst, giving the Flyers more space, since they show Schenn's cap hit lower than any of the other popularly reported figures.
The team has options so that they aren't carrying only six healthy defensemen for the foreseeable future. They are:
1. Place Pronger on Long-Term Injured Reserve
This is obviously the easiest solution, as Pronger's $4.9+ million cap hit would become available for the Flyers to use in replacing him. The only condition is that Pronger would then be required to miss ten games and twenty-four days, meaning he could return November 19th in Winnipeg at the absolute earliest.
This may be the preferred option, since most here are more than happy to rest Pronger for the playoffs, when he's most needed. It would also allow the team to call up any Phantoms defensemen they choose.
2. Waive Jody Shelley, replace him with Zac Rinaldo and Oliver Lauridsen
If the Flyers were to look for cap space from within, rather than force Pronger out of the lineup for close to a month, their options would be limited. Any forward who is sent down for cap space must be replaced, lest the Flyers run into the same problem they are attempting to fix: the lack of a healthy scratch.
Swapping Shelley for Zac Rinaldo makes sense since Rinaldo already has five games played this season, he is extremely inexpensive, and he can fill a similar role as Shelley.
But the move would only open up enough space for a defenseman with a $769,970 yearly cap hit, of which the Flyers only have four in the AHL. One of those defensemen is Dan Jancevski, career AHLer. Another is Oskars Bartulis, subject to re-entry waivers for only $300k next year and roughly $265k this year.
That leaves Lauridsen and Tyler Hostetter as the only realistic options under this scenario. It doesn't have to be Lauridsen, but he's tall and people like him.
I don't think this option is preferred at all - by anyone really - unless the Flyers know Pronger will only miss a couple of games. While we all hope that to be the case, it's not something anyone should count on.
3. Return Sean Couturier to Juniors, Recall Whomever You Want
Couturier costs $7,432 per day against the cap, more than any defenseman currently on the Phantoms. If he is returned to Juniors, the Flyers can recall Gustafsson, Kessel, Bourdon, Marshall, or anyone else you so desire, while still leaving enough room to recall Zac Rinaldo, Tom Sestito, Eric Wellwood, or Jon Kalinski to take his spot.
I've already explained why returning Couturier to Drummondville is a good idea, but this current predicament the Flyers find themselves in only further cements my opinion. Send him back, get the necessary cap space, have your pick of temporary replacements, and maintain flexibility for when Pronger is ready return. Problem solved.
This list is not exhaustive as the Flyers could obviously make a trade or waive other players, but these are the three easiest moves.
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Can we please NOT call him that?
Cooter is slang for vagina. Can’t we find a better nickname for Sean?
by alaskalovestheflyers on Oct 25, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
no chance
there is no chance in hell they send coutier back to juniors .. hes on this team .. u left out other options
Sending schenn back to ahl will free up space for gusty
Sending walker down and calling up gusty and marshall .. which is what i would personally do .. its pretty close but i think walker = gusty and marshall salary together .. so it should work
The downside of the Walker move is that he can’t come up without going through re-entry waivers, and if someone decided he was worth a $850k cap hit then the Flyers would be screwed — they just don’t have room for another $850k of dead space in addition to the $1.4M of bonus penalties from last year.
So at that point, Walker and Bartulis are both stuck in the AHL because you can’t expose them to re-entry waivers. By not foreseeing this possibility and appreciating the value of having Bartulis’ $600k salary over Walker’s $1.7M, they would have jammed themselves into a corner where they have to rely on the Phantoms to fill out the roster for the rest of the year.
When Pronger came back in this scenario, Marshall would presumably go back to the AHL and Gus would stay as the #6/7. Which means either he’s in the lineup and better be ready (in which case why was Walker in there to begin with) or he’s on the bench and having his development stunted.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
I agree, I don’t like this name at all…
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced
Even “Scooter” is a vast improvement.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced
how about “vagina”? i hate slang too.
that was a joke.
by flyersfaninchicago on Oct 25, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I say go the LTIR route
Make sure Chris is healthy and ready to go. Not only is his vision important, but he gets month to rest and not put further strain on his body. Best case scenario: he’s out less than 1 month and comes back before Thanksgiving, not really that bad of a deal. It is 14 games he’d miss, but I have a feeling that our guys can weather the storm until then.
After 10 years, I still can't figure out how Jiri Dopita had a 4 goal game and disappeared.
They could also send Schenn back down to the AHL and bring up Gus and Rinaldo.
by psuhockey on Oct 25, 2011 9:17 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Can LTIR be back-dated? In other words, if Holmgren decides to put him on LTIR on Wednesday, can he retroactively have the 24 days start on Tuesday (today)?
Really? I thought I had seen retroactive LTIR before, given back to the date of the injury.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced
The overage exception applies to the days the player is on LTIR. It doesn’t give you cap space. Without looking at the rules specifically, it doesn’t seem to make conceptual sense.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
Oh, I know it doesn’t give you cap space. I’m thinking about Pronger’s return. Would it be 24 days from when Homer put him on LTIR, or can it be retroactive so that its 24 days from the injury (if he, for some reason, didn’t do it immediately)?
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced
You have to file with the league, then he goes in LTIR. The days between when he was injured and when they file have already been calculated. The accounting isn’t theoretical.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
The question is: does the LTIR rule say that if he is placed on LTIR, he has to stay there for 24 days starting when he is placed on LTIR, or that he has to stay there for 24 days starting when he got hurt?
If he gets hurt on 10/24 and gets put on LTIR on 10/27, is he eligible to come off of LTIR on 11/8 or does he have to wait until 11/11?
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Erm, wow, I bungled those dates. Let’s try again:
If he gets hurt on 10/24 and gets put on LTIR on 10/27, is he eligible to come off of LTIR on 11/17 or does he have to wait until 11/20?
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
I’m in class, so I can’t look at the language right now, but retroactive makes no sense to me.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
Ugh, you’re right:
A Club may elect to replace a Player who is unfit to play under this
Bona-Fide Long-Term Injury Exception at any point during the
period that he is unfit to play, and any days and games already231
missed by the Player as a result of his being unfit to play (i.e., the
injury/illness causing him to miss more than twenty-four (24)
calendar days and ten (10) NHL Regular Season games) prior to
the election of the Bona-Fide Long-Term Injury/Illness Exception
shall retroactively count toward the missed twenty-four (24)
calendar days and ten (10) NHL Regular Season games for the
Player
Moral of this story is never make assumptions about the CBA.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
Yes, this. This is what I’m trying (and failing) to ask. I thought I had heard of LTIR being done retroactively before. Sometimes you don’t know right away if it’s going to be long term.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced
Can he practice while on LTIR?
I mean, if we’re looking at 2-3 weeks until he plays again anyway, LTIR sounds like a great option, as long as he can still practice with the team. Could he go on a conditioning assignment to the Phantoms without coming back on the cap?
Flyers, Phillies, Union, Eagles, Phantoms, Wings.
Hate to say it but...
Sending Couturier down is the best option we have. After reading Geoff’s SB Nation article, it actually seems incredibly stupid to keep him with the Flyers this year. I kind of agreed with this before in previous comments I made about how Couturier’s talent was wasted playing only about 10 minutes a night, but now I completely agree. Send Cooter down, let him bludgeon the QMJHL to death again, get him 20 minutes per game, have him grow up a little more and work on his game, and reap the future benefits of his low cap later on when we need to re-sign G, Mez, and Schenn.
And bring up Gus. I see a little Kimmo in him, and I don’t really think Lauridsen has shown anyone much of anything to give Holmgren a reason to call him up. Looking at his stats, you wonder why Lauridsen is even in the conversation. Maybe I’m missing something, but he better be more than just tall.
Bullies, Phightins, and Vickerbockers
Lauridsen is in the conversation because he’s cheap — replacing Shelley with Rinaldo doesn’t clear enough cap space to call up Gus.
Well, that and because certain members of the MSM are infatuated with his height.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Thats because height = Chara-like dominance. obv’s.
My initial response was, "I hate you so much right now" but I changed it.
by DLJr on Oct 19, 2011 1:15 PM EDT
No St. Cloud State = pure awesomeness.
being obnoxious and self righteous while ignoring the point since 9/29/11
How many of there Alumni have rings? I’m pretty sure UVM is sitting on 2 now.
My initial response was, "I hate you so much right now" but I changed it.
by DLJr on Oct 19, 2011 1:15 PM EDT
Off the top of my head, Matt Cullen. But even St Cloud State awesomeness can only make up for so much suck on a team. Malone should have had one in 2008 if it weren’t for him having to carry Crosby all over the ice.
being obnoxious and self righteous while ignoring the point since 9/29/11
I hate to say it too,..
And that’s why I won’t. Scoots has proved he belongs. Another year in the practically physically obsolete QMJHL is giant step in the wrong direction if you ask me. He will be a man playing amongst boys. Him skating circles around kids in the Q does no good at all. His defensive side of the game, which is obviously the side were leaning on him for, will not be adequately worked on and he will be nowhere near where he could be come camp next year. With how much praise and recognition he’s received already this year it would be a huge blow to him personally. To me those things outweigh having him “cheaper” for 1 more year. The kid is obviously ready to be a professional, let him grow into one! Cuz its not gonna happen in the Q!
by kckrebs on Oct 25, 2011 1:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Frankly, I’m more concerned about having him in 6 years than I am about having him right now.
My initial response was, "I hate you so much right now" but I changed it.
by DLJr on Oct 19, 2011 1:15 PM EDT
At this point, keeping him up would mean his contract ends the same year Claude Giroux, Brayden Schenn, Matt Read, and Andrea Meszaros are looking for contract extensions.
Sending him down, so that his contract is extended a year, means we dont have to worry about resigning him at a higher cost until Claude Giroux is successfully locked up, and the situations for Schenn, Read, and Meszaros are figured out. That would push the Couturier resigning to the same year Briere comes off the books. At that point Briere would be 37, and possibly looking at retirement.
Flyers would already have Giroux locked as their top center, possibly Schenn as well, which would put them in a good spot for bargaining with Couturier, and give them 6 mil in cap space to play with.
Regardless of how Couturier is now, and I like him and how he’s played, we’d be pushed to sign 3 centers in the same year if we dont send him down to extend his contract. I dont know, is this good or bad? We’d have 3 centers bidding against each other on the one hand. On the other hand, we’d have 2 centers, and then 1 center, with 6 million in free cap space.
Hyka'n it up a notch.
I totally understand what you’re saying about the log jam for extensions it could create as that was the main reason I was happy about the jVr contract. But do you expect him to sign a giroux type contract in 3 years?(3yr 3.75m) Cuz I don’t. With the role he’s being played in I’d be fairly surprised if he got 4mil as a 21yr old. This team wants/needs to win now and this kid is going to be a major part of it. The Q is a giant step back and I just hate the thought of that wasted talent. To me its not about finding a cheaper guy that can fill that same role, its more about developing our future stars. The kid belongs in the AHL but yeah we all know that can’t happen. There just isn’t much of a decision in my eyes. And how can you assume the team 6 or even 3years from now? How do you know about the cap raising/lowering or how the new cba will look? I think homer proved he will move people if he feels he needs to. Let’s not worry about 6 years from now we have some sick ass talent that can do damage a lot sooner than that.
by kckrebs on Oct 25, 2011 6:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I know Lauridsen is a long way from the NHL right now, but he is a pure defensive defensman.
I did find this video from his second AHL game:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QkQU1ZsVr4
by Anders Jensen on Oct 25, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Where's the poll??
I vote for #2.
But if LTIR requires about ten games and 24 days … and the early reports are that his injury will keep Prongs out that long anyway … am I missing something, or does that make sense? So I also vote for #1.
The team could also, as Detweiler points out, trade someone to make space. I say trading Walker and/or Hartnell and/or Briere (yes, Briere) woudl be a benefit to the team and would make flexibility to call up whomever they wanted from the Phantoms. So I also vote for #4.
Basically, I don’t think Couturier shoudl be sent down. Beyond that, fix it somehow short of trading G or JVR. That’s my ha’penny.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
Sorry you guys lost Pronger….Even as a Caps fan, I pay money to see guys like Pronger and Crosby on the ice…here’s to a speedy recovery……
by SA-Town on Oct 25, 2011 10:23 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
If they send Cooty down to Juniors, can he be recalled later in the season?
My teams are the Flyers, Phillies and the Steelers. Deal with it.
nope, once he’s down he’s down. I had Geoff and DG confirm that.
Can’t be recalled until the Q’s season is over.
My initial response was, "I hate you so much right now" but I changed it.
by DLJr on Oct 19, 2011 1:15 PM EDT
Ok, thanks.
My teams are the Flyers, Phillies and the Steelers. Deal with it.
by LegionofDoom on Oct 25, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Retroactive LTI
Well, if moving Pronger to the Long term injury list can be done retroactively as the CBA quote indicates, then in theory the Flyers could go with six defensmen, and when and if someone were to get injured, transfer Pronger to the LTI at that point and recall a defensman.
In the short term, or if someone gets dinged or sick and looks to be unable to play for a single game, ….Schenn could be demoted for a few days and replaced with a defensman.
The advantage of using this combination of solutions is that it allows the Flyers the opportunity to make the decision on Couturier based soley on his own play, doesn’t cost them a roster player (Shelley), allows them the flexibility to choose the best defensive replacement from the Phantoms rather than a “low cost” solution, …and it also lets them avoid having to try and sneak a guy like Bartulis or Nodl through waivers.
That’s fine when you’re at home and presumably a callup can get to your barn in a matter of a few hours’ drive.
When you’re on the road and you’re dealing with flight schedules, it gets more complicated.
I’d be shocked if the Flyers didn’t at least have a “non-callup callup”, where you have a D that is physically present with the team but not called up to the parent roster.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
That doesn’t seem like it’s allowed. Does that actually happen?
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
Pretty sure the Caps have done it several times. I could be wrong, of course.
I think they’ve also done it in reverse – sent a guy “down” on paper, but kept him with the team physically. Primary reason is to squirrel away cap space when you’re banking it, if I recall correctly.
Patron saint of quality footwear.
The Flyers have had multiple players clear waivers without assigning them to the AHL affiliate…but those players still count against the cap. It doesn’ t make sense to me that you could have a replacement player essentially with the NHL club when you’re already at the cap.
Of course, I’ve already been wrong about what makes sense to me once in this thread.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
Yeah, the proposed is the reverse though:
They could just stay with the current roster, with only six defensemen, and have Gus follow the Flyers from city to city. Then if someone isn’t feeling well one night, on a moment’s notice they could make some other move (Schenn to AHL, Pronger to LTIR, whatever) and add Gus to the Flyers.
I don’t know whether that’s permitted, but it’s plausible.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Oh, I understand that it’s the reverse, but the analog is insufficient. Cap-heavy teams have to keep waived players at cost against the cap in order to have them play/practice/travel with the team. Additionally, other teams had the chance to take these players already, so you aren’t harming the other teams by allowing them to stay rostered.
Bringing up a travelling defenseman without re-entry (if necessary) and cost seems like a free Black Ace. If a player can be wherever without being rostered and counting against the cap, why have a roster limit at all?
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
I don’t know. To me LTIR just makes the most sense at this point if what Panotch says is true (that they refuse to move Cooter down.) I thought Pronger getting hurt would’ve forced Homer’s hand but if they’re hell bent on keeping him up here then LTIR seems like the way to go.
Thanks a lot Select-A-Seat! Now I'm in 122!
"Some might give head coach Dave Tippett and general manager Don Maloney plenty of credit for guiding the Coyotes to two straight playoff berths amid franchise foibles – and they deserve much of it – but Bryzgalov was far and away the team’s most valuable player." - NBC Sports
by Flyers_Section_121 on Oct 25, 2011 11:49 AM EDT reply actions
Does anyone have a direct quote/tweet of what good ol’ Panotch is slingin’?
My initial response was, "I hate you so much right now" but I changed it.
by DLJr on Oct 19, 2011 1:15 PM EDT
Once a player stays for an 11th game, one year of his deal automatically counts as having been exercised on his three-year NHL entry level contract.
"There is no reason to," the source said. "He can learn just as easily here on the job."
Aside from the 10th/11th game question, these quotes are right in line with the idea of the team seeking to acquire talent and overcome the cap rather than manage the cap efficiently.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
From what I was saying in the Fly-By (I Think) he is one of 5 of his draft class still in the NHL. With Nugent-Hopkins, Landeskog, Larsson, and Zibanejad.
Though one of those 5 is not like the others (its Cooter) in terms of importance of role on the team.
My initial response was, "I hate you so much right now" but I changed it.
by DLJr on Oct 19, 2011 1:15 PM EDT
the idea of the team seeking to acquire talent and overcome the cap
Wow! 2 days in a row being cited by Eric T!
/technically, academics crave direct citation
The only possible dissenting corollary to the rule, however, is that when there is a problem, and the overcome cap is no longer overcome, Homer tends to make knee-jerk short-term dubious moves (Carcillo trade, Metropolit waiver, Gagne lynching, etc.). Here, that could mean sending Couturier down (which in this case, would be doing something unpleasant for him, but inadvertently possibly good for the player).
Astaire and Rogers, G and Jagr
Hunter Pence did not guarantee a WS, but, then, neither did Carlos Beltran.
Haha, didn’t mention you by name because I wasn’t positive this one was yours. Academics would do a damn lit search to find out, but bloggers can get away with just being vague and waiting for someone to say “hey, that was me, can you give me credit?”
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
So what are everybody’s thoughts on visors being mandated? IMO, it should still be up to the players to choose whether they wear them. People like to equate this to helmets being grandfathered in.
Eye doc Stephen goldman told Promger he will NOT clear him to play unless he wears a visor. Hence visor coming
From Panotch, oh and [sic] Promger
There was no way a visor was preventing what happened to him.
"Can I refill your eggnog for you? Get you something to eat? Drive you out to the middle of nowhere and leave you for dead?"
by PraiseMartyMoose on Oct 25, 2011 12:08 PM EDT reply actions
I could see the visors going the way of helmets but I have to think that it should be setup the same way where guys that played prior to the NHL mandate getting the option to wear or not wear one. You see visors in just about all junior and development leagues so the guys coming up will already have some comfort with them.
In regards to Pronger’s situation the two things I’m taking away from it are thank God it wasn’t worse than it is (because it looked a lot scarier sitting there watching it happen) and thank God it’s October and not playoff time.
Thanks a lot Select-A-Seat! Now I'm in 122!
"Some might give head coach Dave Tippett and general manager Don Maloney plenty of credit for guiding the Coyotes to two straight playoff berths amid franchise foibles – and they deserve much of it – but Bryzgalov was far and away the team’s most valuable player." - NBC Sports
by Flyers_Section_121 on Oct 25, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I think visors are a good idea, but I don’t think it would necessarily prevent the kind of injury that happened to Pronger last night (i.e. sticks/pucks coming from angles below the visor. In some cases, visors can be the cause of injury, albeit mainly superficial (see: Weber’s fine-worthy boarding hit a few nights back).
Given all that: assumption of risk. The benefit isn’t a widespread or clear cut proponents of visors tend to imply they are, so let the players make their stupid decisions, if they want.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
It’s been ..what, 10 years? since the Brian Berard incident. Visors should have been made mandatory the day after that happened. Ok, it might not have helped last night, but it might next time. And there will be a next time while guys are skating around with their eyes unprotected.
Last night was terrifying. Brendan Shanahan (VP of Player Safety), NHLPA, GMs, whoever…wake up. Nobody wants to see this again.
Posting all the way from sunny Manchester, England.
since most here are more than happy to rest Pronger for the playoffs
Resting him more now certainly reduces wear and tear which is good esp. with Suicides-o-lette running the ship but it’s not like you bulid up some reserve and will be more rested for the play – offs. Half way thru or towards end the season that kinda of break could make difference if a player is experiencing any cumulative fatigue. 10 games now won’t make a difference that much in that regard. I mainly prefer option one because it demonstrates that they aren’t in some win-now mode. They had that but noooooooooooo, they decided to blow-up it like a buncha fuckheads.
Senor Snider y sus subordinados,
In the Absence of Strong Evidence to the Contrary, One May Step Out of the Way of the Charging Bull
.
⇒
.
V 
So resting him is good, but won’t make a difference?
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced
no that’s not what it says. Resting him will keep him for wear and tear which is good for a player in his 30’s but it won’t make a difference as to his energy levels come play-off time.
also cumulative fatigue usually results when tendons, repeatedly exposed to mechanical stress, temporarily lose their elasticity. A player can feel rested but have a dead arm in the case of pitchers or in hockey, I’m assuming “lead legs”. I don’t think they have played enough for that to have happened.
So you mean it reduces the likelihood of major and minor injuries but doesn’t increase energy levels?
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
except the cumulative fatigue. Fatigue really is a nightmare. There is now a recognized psychological component to overcoming it. Which means in speed endurance and endurance sports you can prolly “heart” out some wins. I still don’t think it trumps talent or random variation but it sure complicates quantifying fatigue or at least makes any noise more noisy.
Waive walker?
If you waive walker you would clear 1.7 million in cap space. You bring up Gus 900k and Lauridsen 650k. Which equals 1.55 million which gives you 150k in cap space and you have all your healthy scratches and enough if you want to bring up Kessel instead of Gus.
-bob
by Rrainone on Oct 25, 2011 12:42 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
In regards to Scooter. The argument has been made before that we are comparing Scooter @ 18 now with the Flyers vs Scooter @ 22 in terms of what he provides for the flyers. My counter argument is that we should compare Scoots at 22 vs him at 22, as well as at 19/19, etc etc. We expect him to stay with the Flyers for the rest of his career at this point so sending him back to minors will not allow him to develop as much as he could on the Flyers roster the entire season. Yes he is going to hit a wall at some point and be less effective, but he will be learning a heck of a lot more if still practicing with the team. Hopefully the team can have the foresight to recognize he will hit a wall and not start him 60 games a la Bob last year. Regardless, he will overcome the hurdle eventually and be that much better next season and beyond.
Additoinally, if he is returned to Juniors and plays a shorter season again, won’t he most likely hit the wall next year at some point? If he is with the team all season and hits the wall and learns the conditioning and habbits required of a full NHL season, he won’t be hitting the wall next season thus supplying more than he would if returned to Juniors. I feel like the gain next season + the continued growth is worth the extra cap-hit he will carry a year sooner.
Now to shift the discussion…Bob. He looked amazing last year until it was clear he had run out of gas, especially in the playoffs. He has started out this season in much the same fashion but he just looks so much more crisp. He isn’t flopping over and making those amazing saves like he did last year because he is in such a better position. Every game he plays makes me a little bit sadder that we signed Bryz. The flyers could have done A LOT with that 5.6m (minus 900k to resign Boosh) in cap hit to make themselves better (Stamkos rumors anybody, just kidding). On the flip side, I’m extremely comfortable going in the playoffs if we have to ride this goalie carousel. It’s the adult version with hot chicks and free beer compared to last season.
We expect him to stay with the Flyers for the rest of his career at this point
This is my biggest problem with the Couturier situation. How / Why could we possibly expect that after 8 games? At the rate we are going I wouldn’t be completely surprised to see him lost to an offer sheet in ’14 (unless there is a major change in the CBA next year.)
My initial response was, "I hate you so much right now" but I changed it.
by DLJr on Oct 19, 2011 1:15 PM EDT
Even if he stays with the team for his entire career, you have the following cap hits, assuming he makes something like 4.5M on his second deal and 6M on his third deal (to pick arbitrary numbers based on what top-level players make now):
18: 1.4M vs juniors
19: 1.4M vs 1.4M
20: 1.4M vs 1.4M
21: 4.5M vs 1.4M
22: 4.5M vs 4.5M
23: 4.5M vs 4.5M
24: 4.5M vs 4.5M
25: 6M vs 4.5M
26 and beyond: 6M vs 6M
By starting his entry level deal now, you’re giving up a more than $1M savings this year by using a cheaper player, a $3M savings in his 21-year-old season, and a $1.5M savings in his 25-year-old season. Plus there is at least some risk that he will choose to leave as a free agent despite the team’s desire to keep him. Those are the costs.
The benefit is whatever upgrade he provides over his replacement this year. If he’s on the fourth line with Shelley on his wing, I don’t think that upgrade can possibly be enough to make it worth the financial costs.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
by Eric T. on Oct 25, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
and that is only accounting for his Salary and not the upgrades to other key pieces we would like to see stay on the team.
Like Carle/Coburn,
Schenn,
Giroux…
I think all of which come up between now and his first RFA year.
My initial response was, "I hate you so much right now" but I changed it.
by DLJr on Oct 19, 2011 1:15 PM EDT
Yeah, though it does include a repeated error: not sure why I listed his ELC as 1.4M; should say 1.7M, since the most widespread guess is 1.69 or 1.705M these days.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Cooter has a cap hit of 1.375M (with no bonus cushion) and capgeek puts his bonuses at 450k. I think the 1.4M vs 4.5M number seems right. I think it was Fehr and Balanced who said that he might not be worth 4.5M for his first SPC if he is only playing 4th line minutes, and with 3 solid centers above him, chances of him moving up the line up seem slim regardless of where he stays this year.
by hebrew hammer on Oct 25, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
The addition to this is that next year we could potentially have him for as cheap as 925k vs the cap, assuming he wont meet any of his bonuses.
by hebrew hammer on Oct 25, 2011 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Cooter has a cap hit of 1.375M
Gah, I confused myself with the Schenn thing. Can’t keep all these damn kids straight.
So yeah, the 1.4M number is right, but the claim of a $1M savings by replacing him is wrong. More like $700k.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Yea, I’ve given up on figuring out Schenn’s cap hit for this season, which is just making things way more confusing. Capgeek says his projected pay for this season is $1,463,155, but with 2.1M in bonuses which may or may not be compeletely achievable. With a cap hit of 3.1M, they must be assuming some of those bonuses will be met.
by hebrew hammer on Oct 25, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Matt Read, Meszaros, Brayden Schenn, and Giroux all enter free agency at the same time as Couturier, if he doesnt go back to Juniors. If Couturier does go back to Juniors, and then comes back, that pushes his RFA to the same year Danny Briere enters UFA at 37 (I think that will be his age) opening up 6 million in cap space and a top 3 center spot.
Tossing that out there for consideration.
Hyka'n it up a notch.
Also worth pointing out: this trajectory assumes he becomes a star. For a player who experiences much less NHL success, the savings would be much smaller — but the decision to pay him $1.7M instead of a $0.7M replacement this year would look much worse if he looks like a typical 18-year-old instead of a future star.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
a typical 18 year old would be in the minors.
out of 18 year olds, I think what… 3 are currently in the NHL rosters of teams?
My initial response was, "I hate you so much right now" but I changed it.
by DLJr on Oct 19, 2011 1:15 PM EDT
Right, but I’m saying we don’t yet know whether he’s great. If he is, then he’s an upgrade this year and will have a series of contracts sort of like above, so keeping him in the NHL means trading a future benefit for an upgrade this year.
If he’s not great, then he’ll be a downgrade this year — as you say, most 18 year olds are not in the NHL, and for good reason. So then the future benefit is much smaller (because his second and third contracts won’t be as juicy), but there’s a short-term loss of both skill and cap space.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Ergo he should be sent down already. What’s the issue? The logic here is pretty airtight unless people are still holding to the “lightning in a bottle”, gonna be the dark horse and have a parade mindset.
People already believe he’s going to be great (I’m not convinced yet, but plenty are). Therefore, they assume he’s going to be much better than his replacements, who are merely adequate.
If you start with that belief, then keeping him up means you get a better team now and you hopefully accelerate his development by getting him training with and against NHLers.
If he filled a gaping hole as a tough-minutes defender at 3C, that would be my argument. But if he’s going to face super-weak competition (as he has thus far, as almost all 18-year-olds do), and if he’s going to be hamstrung with Jody Shelley on his wing (as looks to be the case), then I just don’t see how the boost this year can be substantial. And while getting him in the NHL can help his development, it can hurt it too — both because of fewer minutes played and because rough periods can hurt his confidence.
So until/unless they put him in a critical role and he shows he can handle it, I’m on the other side, but I do think there’s a rational argument either way.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Well I’d also add there are dangers in increasing workloads, not only in quantity but intensity, way too fast. /Broken record’d. Long term damage to connective tissue is never good. I think that is what happens with young pitchers or what might be accounting for the (I can’t believe I’m gonna say this) the Verducci Effect which statistically speaking is poopy but I believe there is some truth in it. The Veducci’d lose some joint stability due to overworked ligaments that lenghten under loads they weren’t prepared to handle.
So, ultimately I feel that sending the youngin’ down is the least risky strategy.
/worrywart’d
Basically weaken the team now so we can save 1 million bucks on the cap in the year 2015. I just can’t get in line with that type of thinking. If the kid can play and be effective has proven by your Zone Entry posts than he deserves to be here.
Basically weaken the team now so we can save 1 million bucks on the cap in the year 2015.
I don’t think you read my comment correctly.
If he is the kind of elite talent who is a substantial improvement over replacement at the age of 18, then playing him now will not cost them $1M in 2015; it will cost them almost $1M this year plus $3M in 2014-15 plus $1.5M in 2018-19.
If he turns out not to be that kind of elite talent — and keep in mind that an awful lot of highly rated prospects aren’t — then playing him now will cost them almost $1M this year and weaken the team.
as proven by your Zone Entry posts
I don’t think you read my post correctly either. Allow me to repeat a couple of passages:
we don’t have enough information yet to infer their talent levels or make predictions about their long-term results
The sample sizes are not yet large enough for the conclusions above to be taken as anything other than a description of what has happened so far
While the sample size is small, it is clear that thus far this group has been strong enough defensively to provide a net boost to the team despite failing to generate offense.
Please understand that a) he hasn’t proven anything yet, and b) for him to be worth the $1M + $3M + $1.5M cost of playing this year, he’ll need to be capable of doing more than playing strong defense against bottom-tier competition.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
by Eric T. on Oct 25, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
First, start with: Pronger to LTIR, send Scooter back to the Q, send Walker to ADK and tell him to leave the porch light on for Shelley because he needs to be waived too. Then, absent those four, fill the roster up again with…….? Any thoughts? Anyone? And for how long?
If you lose Walker and Shelley and send (S)Cooter back to the Q, there is no need for Pronger to go on LTIR, except to give him the mandatory rest. There is no one in ADK with a replacement salaries higher than those 3. Which is a really really good thing, since their roster spots would be better served by AHL players, or Betts.
by hebrew hammer on Oct 25, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
He almost didn’t miss that pass cooter sent his way!
by hebrew hammer on Oct 25, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Gus, Rinaldo/Sestito and a 3rd defesmen
by Anders Jensen on Oct 25, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions

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