FanPost

Individually Weighted +/- (11 game update)

On October 17th I came up with a theory/stat/whatever you want to call it that tries to isolate individual contributions on scoring plays. Link to the original post here. Well, we are over 1/8th of the season and the sample size is increasing. I'm going to try to update the information every ten games or so. After the jump, the even strength numbers...

 

Here are the ESTOI/60 numbers for both forwards and defenders:

 

ES/TOI/60
Coburn 17.23
Briere 14.40
Giroux 13.18
Schenn 12.97
Hartnell 12.52
Simmonds 12.37
Jagr 11.92
vanReimsdyk 11.41
Read 10.42
Voracek 10.29
Couturier 8.87
Talbot 8.60
Nodl 7.63
Rinaldo 6.03
Shelley 4.89
  ES/TOI/60
Carle 16.17
Gustafsson 15.27
Meszaros 14.68
Timonen 12.79
Pronger 12.40
Lilja 11.99
Walker 11.42

 

Here are the raw and reflected +'s. The raw number is the actual amount of goals that they contributed to the team, the reflected number is the raw number reflected over ESTOI/60:

Raw + Ref +
Giroux 3.66 16.66
Hartnell 3.40 16.29
Read 2.45 14.11
Jagr 2.65 13.34
Briere 2.83 11.77
vanReimsdyk 1.95 10.25
Couturier 1.25 8.46
Talbot 1.15 8.02
Voracek 1.25 7.29
Simmonds 1.43 6.94
Coburn 0.50 1.74
Rinaldo 0.10 1.00
Nodl 0.10 0.79
Shelley 0.00 0.00
Schenn 0.00 0.00
  Raw + Ref +
Timonen 0.95 4.46
Carle 1.13 4.17
Meszaros 0.95 3.88
Lilja 0.25 1.25
Pronger 0.25 1.21
Walker 0.05 0.26
Gustafsson 0.00 0.00

Here are the raw and reflected stats for goals allowed:

Raw - Ref -
Couturier 0.00 0.00
Nodl 0.00 0.00
vanReimsdyk 0.00 0.00
Simmonds 0.20 0.97
Read 0.20 1.15
Talbot 0.20 1.40
Voracek 0.40 2.33
Rinaldo 0.25 2.49
Jagr 0.60 3.02
Schenn 0.80 3.70
Giroux 1.13 5.14
Briere 1.40 5.83
Hartnell 1.79 8.58
Shelley 0.70 8.59
Coburn 2.88 10.03
  Raw - Ref -
Gustafsson 0.00 0.00
Pronger 0.50 2.42
Lilja 0.75 3.75
Timonen 1.35 6.33
Meszaros 1.60 6.54
Walker 1.45 7.62
Carle 2.10 7.79

 

Raw and reflected +/- (Goals for less goals against):

Raw +/- Ref +/-
Read 2.25 12.96
Giroux 2.53 11.52
Jagr 2.05 10.32
vanReimsdyk 1.95 10.25
Couturier 1.25 8.46
Hartnell 1.61 7.72
Talbot 0.95 6.63
Simmonds 1.23 5.97
Briere 1.43 5.94
Voracek 0.85 4.96
Nodl 0.10 0.79
Rinaldo -0.15 -1.49
Schenn -0.80 -3.70
Coburn -2.38 -8.29
Shelley -0.70 -8.59
  Raw +/- Ref +/-
Gustafsson 0.00 0.00
Pronger -0.25 -1.21
Timonen -0.40 -1.88
Lilja -0.50 -2.50
Meszaros -0.65 -2.66
Carle -0.98 -3.62
Walker -1.40 -7.36

 

These next categories take a look at goals while on the ice and if the player had any involvement in the goal. OFI% is OnForInvolvement%.

On For In OFI%
Briere 10 10 100.0%
Read 7 7 100.0%
Rinaldo 1 1 100.0%
Talbot 4 4 100.0%
Nodl 1 1 100.0%
Couturier 6 5 83.3%
Simmonds 6 5 83.3%
vanReimsdyk 6 5 83.3%
Hartnell 14 11 78.6%
Giroux 12 9 75.0%
Jagr 13 8 61.5%
Voracek 5 3 60.0%
Coburn 15 5 33.3%
Shelley 0 0 -
Schenn 0 0 -
  On For In OFI%
Timonen 6 5 83.3%
Meszaros 5 4 80.0%
Carle 8 6 75.0%
Walker 3 1 33.3%
Pronger 6 2 33.3%
Lilja 4 1 25.0%
Gustafsson 1 0 0.0%

Now the same thing for defense except the % is for times you weren't involved (JVR hasn't been involved in a GA in all 10 GA while he's been on the ice---thus 100%). The idea is you add the two to get one number out of 200 of the past two % categories.

On Against No% OAI%
Nodl 1 1 100.0%
vanReimsdyk 10 10 100.0%
Rinaldo 3 2 66.7%
Talbot 3 2 66.7%
Jagr 9 6 66.7%
Voracek 7 4 57.1%
Simmonds 4 2 50.0%
Giroux 12 6 50.0%
Read 4 2 50.0%
Hartnell 9 4 44.4%
Schenn 5 2 40.0%
Coburn 13 3 23.1%
Shelley 1 0 0.0%
Briere 2 0 0.0%
Couturier 1 0 0.0%
  On Against No% OAI%
Gustafsson 3 0 0.0%
Lilja 5 1 20.0%
Walker 4 1 25.0%
Meszaros 8 3 37.5%
Timonen 7 3 42.9%
Carle 11 5 45.5%
Pronger 0 0 -

Next we have the "ForAvg". It takes into account the average participation the player has in all goals scored while on the ice:

ForAvg
Read 0.35
vanReimsdyk 0.35
Giroux 0.31
Talbot 0.29
Briere 0.28
Voracek 0.25
Simmonds 0.24
Hartnell 0.21
Jagr 0.20
Couturier 0.13
Rinaldo 0.10
Nodl 0.10
Coburn 0.03
Shelley 0.00
Schenn 0.00
  ForAvg
Walker 0.17
Carle 0.14
Meszaros 0.11
Timonen 0.09
Pronger 0.08
Lilja 0.06

Gustafsson

0.00

Same thing for Goals Allowed:

Here's the PP data:

And the PK data:

 

AgainstAvg
Couturier 0.00
Nodl 0.00
vanReimsdyk 0.00
Simmonds 0.05
Read 0.05
Voracek 0.06
Jagr 0.07
Talbot 0.07
Rinaldo 0.08
Giroux 0.09
Schenn 0.16
Hartnell 0.20
Coburn 0.22
Briere 0.23
Shelley 0.70
  AgainstAvg
Gustafsson 0.00
Lilja 0.15
Carle 0.19
Timonen 0.19
Meszaros 0.20
Pronger 0.25
Walker 0.36
Raw + TOI/60 Raw/60
Giroux 2.575 3.92 39.41326531
Jagr 1.525 3.89 23.5218509
Hartnell 0.5 1.45 20.68965517
Briere 1.2 3.54 20.33898305
vanReimsdyk 1.025 3.13 19.6485623
Pronger 1.025 3.36 18.30357143
Carle 0.825 3.72 13.30645161
Simmonds 0.675 3.44 11.77325581
Timonen 0.5 3.41 8.797653959
Voracek 0.45 3.45 7.826086957
Read 0.25 2.45 6.12244898
Meszaros 0 2.42 0
  Raw + Raw - Raw +/- TOI Ref + Ref - Ref +/-
Giroux 0.3 -0.9 -0.6 1.85 9.73 -29.19 -19.46
Couturier 0 -0.9 -0.9 3.96 0 -13.64 -13.64
Timonen 0 -0.88 -0.88 4.43 0 -11.92 -11.92
Meszaros 0 -0.25 -0.25 2.34 0 -6.41 -6.41
Coburn 0.1 -0.33 -0.23 3.11 1.93 -6.367 -4.44
Schenn 0 -0.1 -0.1 1.21 0 -4.959 -4.96
Pronger 0 -0.33 -0.33 4.17 0 -4.748 -4.75
Talbot 0.3 -0.2 0.1 4.13 4.36 -2.906 1.22
Carle 0 0 0 1.27 0 0 0
Lilja 0 0 0 0.4 0 0 0
Nodl 0 0 0 2.27 0 0 0

 

 

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by <em>Broad Street Hockey</em>.

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