On October 17th I came up with a theory/stat/whatever you want to call it that tries to isolate individual contributions on scoring plays. Link to the original post here. Well, we are over 1/8th of the season and the sample size is increasing. I'm going to try to update the information every ten games or so. After the jump, the even strength numbers...
Here are the ESTOI/60 numbers for both forwards and defenders:
| ES/TOI/60 | |
|---|---|
| Coburn | 17.23 |
| Briere | 14.40 |
| Giroux | 13.18 |
| Schenn | 12.97 |
| Hartnell | 12.52 |
| Simmonds | 12.37 |
| Jagr | 11.92 |
| vanReimsdyk | 11.41 |
| Read | 10.42 |
| Voracek | 10.29 |
| Couturier | 8.87 |
| Talbot | 8.60 |
| Nodl | 7.63 |
| Rinaldo | 6.03 |
| Shelley | 4.89 |
| ES/TOI/60 | |
| Carle | 16.17 |
| Gustafsson | 15.27 |
| Meszaros | 14.68 |
| Timonen | 12.79 |
| Pronger | 12.40 |
| Lilja | 11.99 |
| Walker | 11.42 |
Here are the raw and reflected +'s. The raw number is the actual amount of goals that they contributed to the team, the reflected number is the raw number reflected over ESTOI/60:
| Raw + | Ref + | |
|---|---|---|
| Giroux | 3.66 | 16.66 |
| Hartnell | 3.40 | 16.29 |
| Read | 2.45 | 14.11 |
| Jagr | 2.65 | 13.34 |
| Briere | 2.83 | 11.77 |
| vanReimsdyk | 1.95 | 10.25 |
| Couturier | 1.25 | 8.46 |
| Talbot | 1.15 | 8.02 |
| Voracek | 1.25 | 7.29 |
| Simmonds | 1.43 | 6.94 |
| Coburn | 0.50 | 1.74 |
| Rinaldo | 0.10 | 1.00 |
| Nodl | 0.10 | 0.79 |
| Shelley | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Schenn | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raw + | Ref + | |
| Timonen | 0.95 | 4.46 |
| Carle | 1.13 | 4.17 |
| Meszaros | 0.95 | 3.88 |
| Lilja | 0.25 | 1.25 |
| Pronger | 0.25 | 1.21 |
| Walker | 0.05 | 0.26 |
| Gustafsson | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Here are the raw and reflected stats for goals allowed:
| Raw - | Ref - | |
|---|---|---|
| Couturier | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nodl | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vanReimsdyk | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simmonds | 0.20 | 0.97 |
| Read | 0.20 | 1.15 |
| Talbot | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| Voracek | 0.40 | 2.33 |
| Rinaldo | 0.25 | 2.49 |
| Jagr | 0.60 | 3.02 |
| Schenn | 0.80 | 3.70 |
| Giroux | 1.13 | 5.14 |
| Briere | 1.40 | 5.83 |
| Hartnell | 1.79 | 8.58 |
| Shelley | 0.70 | 8.59 |
| Coburn | 2.88 | 10.03 |
| Raw - | Ref - | |
| Gustafsson | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pronger | 0.50 | 2.42 |
| Lilja | 0.75 | 3.75 |
| Timonen | 1.35 | 6.33 |
| Meszaros | 1.60 | 6.54 |
| Walker | 1.45 | 7.62 |
| Carle | 2.10 | 7.79 |
Raw and reflected +/- (Goals for less goals against):
| Raw +/- | Ref +/- | |
|---|---|---|
| Read | 2.25 | 12.96 |
| Giroux | 2.53 | 11.52 |
| Jagr | 2.05 | 10.32 |
| vanReimsdyk | 1.95 | 10.25 |
| Couturier | 1.25 | 8.46 |
| Hartnell | 1.61 | 7.72 |
| Talbot | 0.95 | 6.63 |
| Simmonds | 1.23 | 5.97 |
| Briere | 1.43 | 5.94 |
| Voracek | 0.85 | 4.96 |
| Nodl | 0.10 | 0.79 |
| Rinaldo | -0.15 | -1.49 |
| Schenn | -0.80 | -3.70 |
| Coburn | -2.38 | -8.29 |
| Shelley | -0.70 | -8.59 |
| Raw +/- | Ref +/- | |
| Gustafsson | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pronger | -0.25 | -1.21 |
| Timonen | -0.40 | -1.88 |
| Lilja | -0.50 | -2.50 |
| Meszaros | -0.65 | -2.66 |
| Carle | -0.98 | -3.62 |
| Walker | -1.40 | -7.36 |
These next categories take a look at goals while on the ice and if the player had any involvement in the goal. OFI% is OnForInvolvement%.
| On For | In | OFI% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Briere | 10 | 10 | 100.0% |
| Read | 7 | 7 | 100.0% |
| Rinaldo | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| Talbot | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
| Nodl | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| Couturier | 6 | 5 | 83.3% |
| Simmonds | 6 | 5 | 83.3% |
| vanReimsdyk | 6 | 5 | 83.3% |
| Hartnell | 14 | 11 | 78.6% |
| Giroux | 12 | 9 | 75.0% |
| Jagr | 13 | 8 | 61.5% |
| Voracek | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| Coburn | 15 | 5 | 33.3% |
| Shelley | 0 | 0 | - |
| Schenn | 0 | 0 | - |
| On For | In | OFI% | |
| Timonen | 6 | 5 | 83.3% |
| Meszaros | 5 | 4 | 80.0% |
| Carle | 8 | 6 | 75.0% |
| Walker | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| Pronger | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| Lilja | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
| Gustafsson | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
Now the same thing for defense except the % is for times you weren't involved (JVR hasn't been involved in a GA in all 10 GA while he's been on the ice---thus 100%). The idea is you add the two to get one number out of 200 of the past two % categories.
| On Against | No% | OAI% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nodl | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| vanReimsdyk | 10 | 10 | 100.0% |
| Rinaldo | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| Talbot | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| Jagr | 9 | 6 | 66.7% |
| Voracek | 7 | 4 | 57.1% |
| Simmonds | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| Giroux | 12 | 6 | 50.0% |
| Read | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| Hartnell | 9 | 4 | 44.4% |
| Schenn | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| Coburn | 13 | 3 | 23.1% |
| Shelley | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Briere | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Couturier | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| On Against | No% | OAI% | |
| Gustafsson | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Lilja | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
| Walker | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
| Meszaros | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
| Timonen | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
| Carle | 11 | 5 | 45.5% |
| Pronger | 0 | 0 | - |
Next we have the "ForAvg". It takes into account the average participation the player has in all goals scored while on the ice:
| ForAvg | |
|---|---|
| Read | 0.35 |
| vanReimsdyk | 0.35 |
| Giroux | 0.31 |
| Talbot | 0.29 |
| Briere | 0.28 |
| Voracek | 0.25 |
| Simmonds | 0.24 |
| Hartnell | 0.21 |
| Jagr | 0.20 |
| Couturier | 0.13 |
| Rinaldo | 0.10 |
| Nodl | 0.10 |
| Coburn | 0.03 |
| Shelley | 0.00 |
| Schenn | 0.00 |
| ForAvg | |
| Walker | 0.17 |
| Carle | 0.14 |
| Meszaros | 0.11 |
| Timonen | 0.09 |
| Pronger | 0.08 |
| Lilja | 0.06 |
|
Gustafsson |
0.00 |
| AgainstAvg | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Couturier | 0.00 | ||||||
| Nodl | 0.00 | ||||||
| vanReimsdyk | 0.00 | ||||||
| Simmonds | 0.05 | ||||||
| Read | 0.05 | ||||||
| Voracek | 0.06 | ||||||
| Jagr | 0.07 | ||||||
| Talbot | 0.07 | ||||||
| Rinaldo | 0.08 | ||||||
| Giroux | 0.09 | ||||||
| Schenn | 0.16 | ||||||
| Hartnell | 0.20 | ||||||
| Coburn | 0.22 | ||||||
| Briere | 0.23 | ||||||
| Shelley | 0.70 | ||||||
| AgainstAvg | |||||||
| Gustafsson | 0.00 | ||||||
| Lilja | 0.15 | ||||||
| Carle | 0.19 | ||||||
| Timonen | 0.19 | ||||||
| Meszaros | 0.20 | ||||||
| Pronger | 0.25 | ||||||
| Walker | 0.36 | ||||||
| Raw + | TOI/60 | Raw/60 | |||||
| Giroux | 2.575 | 3.92 | 39.41326531 | ||||
| Jagr | 1.525 | 3.89 | 23.5218509 | ||||
| Hartnell | 0.5 | 1.45 | 20.68965517 | ||||
| Briere | 1.2 | 3.54 | 20.33898305 | ||||
| vanReimsdyk | 1.025 | 3.13 | 19.6485623 | ||||
| Pronger | 1.025 | 3.36 | 18.30357143 | ||||
| Carle | 0.825 | 3.72 | 13.30645161 | ||||
| Simmonds | 0.675 | 3.44 | 11.77325581 | ||||
| Timonen | 0.5 | 3.41 | 8.797653959 | ||||
| Voracek | 0.45 | 3.45 | 7.826086957 | ||||
| Read | 0.25 | 2.45 | 6.12244898 | ||||
| Meszaros | 0 | 2.42 | 0 |
| Raw + | Raw - | Raw +/- | TOI | Ref + | Ref - | Ref +/- | |
| Giroux | 0.3 | -0.9 | -0.6 | 1.85 | 9.73 | -29.19 | -19.46 |
| Couturier | 0 | -0.9 | -0.9 | 3.96 | 0 | -13.64 | -13.64 |
| Timonen | 0 | -0.88 | -0.88 | 4.43 | 0 | -11.92 | -11.92 |
| Meszaros | 0 | -0.25 | -0.25 | 2.34 | 0 | -6.41 | -6.41 |
| Coburn | 0.1 | -0.33 | -0.23 | 3.11 | 1.93 | -6.367 | -4.44 |
| Schenn | 0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 1.21 | 0 | -4.959 | -4.96 |
| Pronger | 0 | -0.33 | -0.33 | 4.17 | 0 | -4.748 | -4.75 |
| Talbot | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 4.13 | 4.36 | -2.906 | 1.22 |
| Carle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.27 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lilja | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nodl | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.27 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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