Scoring Chances, Game 1: Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins

Many of you who were around Broad Street Hockey at the end of last season may remember that I started tracking the Flyers scoring chances, and I will continue to do so this season.

For those of you who haven't read about the scoring chance project undertaken by members in the hockey blogosphere, or for those who would like a refresher, I suggest reading the following links:

An intro to scoring chances by C.J Richey at In Lou We Trust covers the basic premise of the scoring chance project and how to interpret the charts.

Scoring chances, microstats and why they matter by Derek Zona demonstrates the use of advanced statistics by hockey teams for many years and why we as fans should care about using them.

Also, I wrote a summary of the few games I did track at the end of last season, which shows what you can do with several games worth of scoring chance data (as well as small sample size effects!). 

Briefly though, a scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area -- loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. 

Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score.

After the jump you'll see the area I use to define a scoring chance, data from Game 1 against the Bruins and an explanation of the charts.

scoringarea

This is the guide used to determine whether a shot is a scoring chance or not. Shots that occur on the border of the area can be difficult to call, but I am typically a more generous recorder than others.

The results are presented in three charts.

The first chart: Team-Period-Time-Comments are noted  for each scoring chance as it takes place while watching the game. Then PHI-Opponent-Strength are derived using Vic’s script. It searches through NHL.com play-by-play information for the time and lists the players present on the ice as well as whether the play was at even-strength or not.

The second chart: The script compiles all the data from the first chart, and sorts it by player number. This presents the total chances for and against for a player at even strength and on the powerplay or penalty kill.

The third chart:The script sums the totals for each team by period, and shows them all from the Flyers perspective. The same rules apply for PP/SH, for/against applies to when the Flyers are on the PP or are SH. They do not indicate Flyers’ PP chances and Opponent’s PP chances side by side.

Below is the output from regular season game one, against the Bruins, and is typical of what these scoring chance posts will be.

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20001

Team Period Time Note PHI Opponent
BOS 1 18:53 Horton ms 17 20 25 30 48 93 18 30 33 46 55 63 5v5
BOS 1 18:45 Bergeron ms 5 21 25 28 30 68 30 33 37 49 55 63 5v5
PHI 1 17:42 Lilja 6 15 27 30 36 41 11 20 21 22 30 43 5v5
PHI 1 15:52 JVR 5 21 28 30 44 68 14 30 33 37 49 63 5v5
BOS 1 15:28 Lucic ms 6 17 30 41 48 93 14 17 18 30 44 46 5v5
BOS 1 12:07 Kelly ms 14 19 20 24 25 30 19 21 23 30 38 43 5v5
BOS 1 10:18 Marchand GOAL 14 15 20 30 44 14 19 30 37 49 63 4v5
BOS 1 9:17 Seguin post 5 14 19 24 30 44 14 19 23 30 38 44 5v5
BOS 1 8:32 Seguin 6 15 27 30 36 41 19 21 23 30 38 43 5v5
PHI 1 5:40 Jagr ms 5 21 28 30 44 68 21 30 37 44 49 63 5v5
PHI 1 1:23 Hartnell 6 14 19 24 30 41 18 30 33 37 55 63 5v5
PHI 1 0:50 Giroux GOAL 17 20 28 30 41 68 30 33 37 44 63 5v4
PHI 1 0:02 Voracek GOAL 17 25 30 41 48 93 17 18 30 33 44 46 5v5
BOS 2 17:47 Marchand 6 21 28 30 41 68 14 30 37 44 49 63 5v5
PHI 2 15:54 Voracek 5 17 25 30 48 93 17 18 30 33 46 55 5v5
BOS 2 7:19 Marchand 20 21 30 41 48 68 18 21 30 44 46 63 5v5
PHI 2 6:35 Simmonds 17 20 28 30 41 68 11 23 30 33 55 5v4
PHI 2 6:12 Jagr ms 17 20 28 30 41 68 11 20 30 33 55 5v4
PHI 2 3:27 Nodl 5 15 24 30 41 14 30 37 46 49 63 4v5
PHI 2 2:15 Jagr 6 19 25 28 30 68 19 20 22 30 44 55 5v5
PHI 2 1:54 Giroux 6 21 25 28 30 68 11 20 21 22 30 55 5v5
PHI 2 0:40 Read 5 14 27 30 41 14 19 30 37 49 63 4v5
PHI 3 17:06 Hartnell 19 20 24 25 30 48 14 19 21 23 30 38 5v5
PHI 3 12:25 Couturier 14 20 27 30 44 14 17 18 30 37 46 4v5
BOS 3 11:53 Bergeron 15 20 24 30 44 14 17 18 30 37 46 4v5
BOS 3 10:39 Marchand 20 27 28 30 44 19 30 33 44 49 63 4v5
BOS 3 9:15 Lucic ms 20 27 28 30 44 14 17 18 30 37 46 4v5
BOS 3 9:05 Horton - Timonen save 20 27 28 30 44 14 17 18 30 37 46 4v5
BOS 3 8:07 Seguin 5 14 15 30 41 19 30 33 44 49 63 4v5
PHI 3 7:36 Simmonds ms 5 6 17 24 27 30 19 30 33 44 49 63 5v5
PHI 3 5:52 JVR 20 21 25 28 30 68 14 17 18 30 33 46 5v5
BOS 3 4:32 Krejci 17 20 25 30 48 93 17 18 30 33 46 55 5v5
PHI 3 1:20 Jagr 15 25 28 30 41 68 17 18 30 44 46 55 5v5

 

# Player EV PP SH
5 B. COBURN 17:56 4 2 0:06 0 0 2:42 2 1
6 A. LILJA 11:58 5 3 0:00 0 0 0:04 0 0
14 S. COUTURIER 9:24 1 2 0:06 0 0 4:34 2 2
15 A. NODL 8:19 2 1 0:00 0 0 2:57 1 3
17 W. SIMMONDS 12:56 3 3 2:24 3 0 0:00 0 0
19 S. HARTNELL 11:31 3 2 0:06 0 0 0:00 0 0
20 C. PRONGER 16:30 2 4 2:49 3 0 5:15 1 5
21 J. VAN RIEMSDYK 14:29 4 3 1:57 0 0 0:00 0 0
24 M. READ 9:37 3 2 0:00 0 0 2:40 1 1
25 M. CARLE 19:36 7 4 1:47 0 0 0:45 0 0
27 M. TALBOT 10:23 2 1 0:23 0 0 5:45 2 3
28 C. GIROUX 13:57 6 2 2:41 3 0 1:28 0 3
30 I. BRYZGALOV 46:34 12 9 4:44 3 0 8:42 3 6
36 Z. RINALDO 6:27 1 1 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
41 A. MESZAROS 12:14 4 4 2:34 3 0 3:23 2 1
44 K. TIMONEN 15:02 2 1 2:12 0 0 5:15 1 5
48 D. BRIERE 14:40 3 4 2:14 0 0 0:00 0 0
68 J. JAGR 13:39 6 3 2:34 3 0 0:00 0 0
93 J. VORACEK 12:09 2 3 1:47 0 0 0:00 0 0

 

Game_1_h2h_medium

 

Period Totals EV PP 5v3 PP SH 5v3 SH
1 6 7 5 6 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2 7 2 3 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
3 5 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0
4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Totals 18 15 12 9 3 0 0 0 3 6 0 0

 

As far as scoring chances go, this was a pretty good game for the new look Flyers against a team largely unchanged Bruins team that won the Stanley Cup. The even strength battle is always key and the Flyers effort in the second to keep the Bruins to two chances while generating seven of their own and protecting a single goal lead is impressive. Improvements could be made on special teams where they only managed three chances on four powerplays and allowed six Bruins chances on five penalty kills.

An 18-15 final chance is a vast improvement over the playoff series against the Bruins, let's all hope this is an indication of the season to come.

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