Demoting Oskars Bartulis and the domino effect: How one decision crushed the Flyers' defensive depth
We published an Eric T. joint back in July, where our esteemed colleague detailed how every little decision the Flyers make can impact them in a very large way. It's the butterfly effect, right?
Well, this isn't exactly the same thing, but it's along those same lines. It's more of a domino effect. One relatively small decision that Paul Holmgren, Peter Laviolette and the Philadelphia Flyers made back in training camp just pushed itself into our nightmares, and really, we should've seen this coming from a mile away.
When Marc-Andre Bourdon and Kevin Marshall were forced into making their NHL debuts last night, it was the direct result of the Flyers' September decision to waive Oskars Bartulis and assign him to Adirondack while keeping Matt Walker in Philadelphia.
Yes, both Bourdon and Marshall filled in admirably for Chris Pronger and Braydon Coburn last night, but the simple fact is this: These guys are sixth NHL defensemen at best, and they've been playing as third and fourth defensemen in the American Hockey League this season. There's hope that they can be something more than that someday, but now? They are not.
That they were pushed into NHL action like this -- combined, they played exactly half the hockey game vs. Carolina -- is pretty insane.
And it could have been avoided. After all, isn't the overwhelming strength of the Flyers supposed to be their depth on defense? Maybe not in the system, but certainly at the NHL level. When I read "depth and strength on defense," I don't imagine a team relying on two mid-level AHL defensemen to play 30 combined minutes in an NHL game.
This all dates back to that decision in training camp to shun Bartulis and keep Walker. Let's examine.
Here's a look at the Flyers' defensive depth chart as it stood at the end of training camp. There's some opinion in here, but there's not much room for argument, at least when it comes to the way things shook out right on the cusp of the NHL/AHL divide.
| Defense | ||||
| 1 | Chris Pronger | 4.921 | Kimmo Timonen | 6.333 |
| 2 | Matt Carle | 3.437 | Braydon Coburn | 3.200 |
| 3 | Andrej Meszaros | 4.000 | Andreas Lilja | 0.737 |
| 4 | Oskars Bartulis | 0.600 | Matt Walker | 1.700 |
| players above this line count against the Flyers salary cap | ||||
| 5 | Erik Gustafsson | 0.900 | Kevin Marshall | 0.845 |
| 6 | Marc-Andre Bourdon | 0.875 | Oliver Lauridsen | 0.650 |
| 7 | Dan Jancevski | 0.520 | Blake Kessel | 0.975 |
| 8 | Brandon Manning | 0.900 | Cullen Eddy | xx |
| 9 | Tyler Hostetter | 0.526 | Denis Bodrov | xx |
| 10 | Ricard Blidstrand | xx | Nick Luukko | xx |
| 11 | Colin Suellentrop | xx | ||
Color key: White is NHL, purple is AHL, orange is ECHL, yellow is Europe, blue is Juniors, green in college/USHL. Technically, Brandon Manning has been with the Flyers this whole time, but that's just due to injury.
You could flip Bartulis and Walker there if you'd like, but here's what it comes down to: It's just a marginal skill difference between the two, if anything, thus rendering Bartulis the more valuable player even despite his poor training camp, thanks to the $1.1 million in savings against the cap.
What you see here is actually a pretty well-stocked system. You have a very, very strong top-4, an extremely serviceable third pairing, and two men who can each play the role as seventh defenseman admirably.
In the event of injury, you have the ability to slot one of those seventh defensemen into the lineup as your sixth defenseman, and in the event of two injuries, you have the other defenseman right there.
Well, kinda. Teams don't keep $1.7 million players around to sit in the press box on a regular basis. It doesn't make any sense, especially when you're a team that's always up against the salary cap.
But that's exactly what the Flyers did. They waived both Oskars Bartulis and Matt Walker at the end of camp, as could be expected. That's not an issue, as it gave them some flexibility and they knew they'd probably get through it with neither player being claimed. It's actually pretty smart.
The problem was that they then shipped Bartulis to the Adirondack Phantoms, leaving Walker in the NHL as the seventh defenseman getting paid $1.7 million. Again, that makes absolutely no sense.
| Defense | ||||
| 1 | Chris Pronger | 4.921 | Kimmo Timonen | 6.333 |
| 2 | Matt Carle | 3.437 | Braydon Coburn | 3.200 |
| 3 | Andrej Meszaros | 4.000 | Andreas Lilja | 0.737 |
| 4 | Matt Walker | 1.700 | ||
| players above this line count against the Flyers salary cap | ||||
| 5 | Oskars Bartulis | 0.600 | Erik Gustafsson | 0.900 |
| 6 | Kevin Marshall | 0.845 | Marc-Andre Bourdon | 0.875 |
| 7 | Oliver Lauridsen | 0.650 | Dan Jancevski | 0.520 |
| 8 | Blake Kessel | 0.975 | Brandon Manning | 0.900 |
| 9 | Cullen Eddy | xx | Tyler Hostetter | 0.526 |
| 10 | Denis Bodrov | xx | Ricard Blidstrand | xx |
| 11 | Nick Luukko | xx | Colin Suellentrop | xx |
Maybe the argument is that the Flyers were trying to showcase Walker in hopes that some team would be interested in acquiring him via trade. They talked him up quite a bit at the end of training camp, and it seemed like they were putting on a good sell.
But in reality, we all knew Walker couldn't be had for a bag of pucks. Not at a $1.7 million cap hit, at least. He cleared waivers just seven months earlier, and what changed in seven months? Nothing, really. Same player, same price. Not worth taking a risk on. Teams don't pay seventh defensemen $1.7 million, you know?
But that's the position the Flyers put themselves in. When Walker did see action with the Flyers early on in the season, he was absolutely horrendous in every sense of the word. Again, something we could have expected.
Ultimately, as injuries began to mount, the Flyers had no choice but to send Walker to the Phantoms due to his absurdly out-of-whack cap hit. The inevitable was delayed for a bit, but with Erik Gustafsson called up to replace Chris Pronger, and then once injuries to Danny Briere and Matt Read hit, something had to give.
That something was Matt Walker. As we wrote at the time:
Sending down Walker and his $1.7 million salary clears that space, but it also sheds the seventh defenseman from the roster. With Pronger on IR, the Flyers are left with just six defensemen until -- at the very least -- one of Briere or Read is ready to return to the lineup. Once that happens, one of today's callups can be returned to the Phantoms and another defenseman can be called back up.
The problem? Only Kevin Marshall and Oliver Lauridsen seem like realistic, waiver-exempt options on defense to be called up from the Phantoms at this point. Walker would have to clear through re-entry, and if he gets claimed the Flyers would be screwed with half that cap hit stuck on their number for the rest of the year -- a silly risk to take. Same goes with Oskars Bartulis, although half of his $600,000 cap hit would be easier to swallow. It's still a number that the Flyers really can't afford to take on.
It'll be interesting to see what happens there, especially considering Erik Gustafsson is already in Philadelphia.
(Yes, we forgot to mention Marc-Andre Bourdon there. Forgive us.)
Maybe we couldn't have foreseen so many injuries at the same time. That's totally fair. But looking down the line and saying "Oh, maybe we won't be able to afford a $1.7 million salary for our seventh defenseman all year long" is something the Flyers shockingly didn't do.
They should have been able to foresee that, and because they didn't, this is what we end up with:
| Defense | ||||
| 1 | Chris Pronger | 4.921 | Kimmo Timonen | 6.333 |
| 2 | Matt Carle | 3.437 | Braydon Coburn | 3.200 |
| 3 | Andrej Meszaros | 4.000 | Andreas Lilja | 0.737 |
| 4 | Erik Gustafsson | 0.900 | ||
| players above this line count against the Flyers salary cap | ||||
| 5 | Matt Walker | 1.700 | Oskars Bartulis | 0.600 |
| 6 | Marc-Andre Bourdon | 0.875 | Kevin Marshall | 0.845 |
| 7 | Oliver Lauridsen | 0.650 | Dan Jancevski | 0.520 |
| 8 | Blake Kessel | 0.975 | Brandon Manning | 0.900 |
| 9 | Tyler Hostetter | 0.526 | Cullen Eddy | xx |
| 10 | Ricard Blidstrand | xx | Denis Bodrov | xx |
| 11 | Colin Suellentrop | xx | Nick Luukko | xx |
That depth you once had is completely gone.
There are plenty of teams -- the last two Flyers' opponents, Carolina and Winnipeg, included -- that would certainly pick up Matt Walker for $850,000 on re-entry waivers. That's the going rate for a sixth or seventh defenseman, after all. The Flyers cannot call him back up, because they then would be forced to pay the other $850,000, a number they cannot afford.
(We should note that they could potentially squeak Walker back through re-entry, but the chances of that are slim. Certainly not worth the risk, which would be a death blow to the salary cap situation if he were to be claimed.)
Given this, it was inevitable that the Flyers would be forced at some point to render him useless by sending him to the AHL. They didn't have that choice -- although that's where we could get into the decision to acquire him in the first place.
The real issue here is that Bartulis was a perfectly serviceable seventh defenseman, and they needlessly sent him down in training camp, also rendering him useless. Somebody would definitely claim him for just $300,000 against the cap. Instead of just eliminating the NHL services of one depth guy, the Flyers did that to two depth guys. For no legitimate reason.
And that's where the chain continues. If you eliminate Walker and Bartulis from the depth chart, which the Flyers have essentially done, you get something that looks like this:
| Defense | ||||
| 1 | Chris Pronger | 4.921 | Kimmo Timonen | 6.333 |
| 2 | Matt Carle | 3.437 | Braydon Coburn | 3.200 |
| 3 | Andrej Meszaros | 4.000 | Andreas Lilja | 0.737 |
| 4 | Erik Gustafsson | 0.900 | ||
| players above this line count against the Flyers salary cap | ||||
| 5 | Matt Walker | 1.700 | Oskars Bartulis | 0.600 |
| 6 | Marc-Andre Bourdon | 0.875 | Kevin Marshall | 0.845 |
| 7 | Oliver Lauridsen | 0.650 | Dan Jancevski | 0.520 |
| 8 | Blake Kessel | 0.975 | Brandon Manning | 0.900 |
| 9 | Tyler Hostetter | 0.526 | Cullen Eddy | xx |
| 10 | Ricard Blidstrand | xx | Denis Bodrov | xx |
| 11 | Colin Suellentrop | xx | Nick Luukko | xx |
Marc-Andre Bourdon and Kevin Marshall suddenly become your top two options on defense in the system, and that's with one call-up already in Philadelphia: Erik Gustafsson, who probably isn't in the ideal position as a seventh defenseman sitting in the press box.
Gus is injured now, but when he comes back, he's likely here to stay as a result of all of this. If he's in the Flyers lineup, that's wonderful, but if he's just sitting in the press box, he's not growing as a player. With the future of the system the way it is -- see: Age of Pronger, Chris; Timonen, Kimmo -- the Flyers need to continue to develop all the defensive talent they can. Gustafsson is at the front of that.
Couple that need with the fact that they're always against the cap and you have an organization that needs to take literally every single precaution necessary to make sure they save money against the cap, grow the few prospects they have and keep their depth in tact.
Foolishly, they've crushed that depth with one seemingly small decision in training camp that's kind of hard to understand. Coburn will likely be back on Wednesday night, and it's only a matter of time before Marshall and Bourdon are sent back to the Phantoms. But that'll only last until the next injury, where we'll again have to watch the team rely on one or two AHL-caliber defensemen.
Suddenly, the Flyers have almost zero defensive depth. Completely self-inflicted, completely unnecessary.
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and they’ve been playing as third and fourth defensemen in the American Hockey League this season.
That’s unfair to them given that the reason they are their 3rd and 4th defensemen is because of the decisions that have Bartulis and Walker down there on the 1st pairing. Marshall is their top defensive dman option, Gus was their top puck mover, and Bourdon, well that is probably fair to him given his injury struggles and last season in ADK.
Fair enough. Either way, they’re still at best sixth defensemen in the NHL.
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Broad Street Hockey - Covering the Philadelphia Flyers. Have you accepted Ilya Bryzgalov as your savior?
by Travis Hughes on Nov 22, 2011 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
All I want for XMas is Lord of The Rings Extended Blu Ray and for Homer to be fired.
Ed Snider is a crotchety old fuck.
That is all.
LOTR Extended Blu-ray $49 at Overstock today. Pretty amazing. If you have the extended DVD however I would just upscale. It is not as dramatic a difference as the HP Blu-rays.
He cleared waivers just seven months earlier, and what changed in seven months?
Not just that, but he cleared waivers that week. If the move was really “let’s play him in the NHL and see if a dozen games will get someone to trade for him when nobody took him for free last week”, then…I don’t know what to think.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Haha, right.
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by Travis Hughes on Nov 22, 2011 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
Two questions:
1) Why are you using Coburn is coming back from his upper-body injury, instead of Pronger coming back from his much-less-severe-sounding virus?
2) If Gustafsson jumps Lilja into the lineup (I’d say it’s about 60:40 in favor of Lilja at the moment), a lot of these problems are minimalized. Lilja is ideal as a veteran, press box type, and the prospect of having Marshall or Bourdon up as a 7th when there’s an injury isn’t a huge problem.
It doesn’t make the original decision any less crappy, but it does show what I can only assume is the Flyers’ rationale here: two injuries to the top six defensemen are likely to kill this team regardless of who they had on the NHL roster. The only unknown quantity in that equation was Matt Walker and his outside chance at being the clear-cut sixth best D-man in our system.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
Reporters said Pronger is out tomorrow, so Coburn has to come back since they sent Marshall down.
Ultimately, it does all come down to “Matt Walker’s contract is fucking horrible.”
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Broad Street Hockey - Covering the Philadelphia Flyers. Have you accepted Ilya Bryzgalov as your savior?
by Travis Hughes on Nov 22, 2011 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
Irrelevant. I sent him down. It’s off the cap. I conquered the cap
-Homer.
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's reported bloat-signing
1) Because it’s being reported that Coburn is playing and Pronger isn’t.
2) Gustafsson being the 6th helps, but he’s not the ideal #6 next to Meszaros; Lilja is. Gus is the ideal top call-up, but that’s neither here nor there.
If you had kept Bartulis in the NHL instead of Walker, your top call-up is Gus and not Bourdon. That’s a much bigger difference than Walker to Bartulis.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 22, 2011 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
To what degree to you sacrifice a better defenseman for a more stylistic fit? I agree with your assessment, and I think you’d obviously agree you have to cap the sacrifice at some point (if Mike Green is your seventh defenseman, you don’t sit him for a pylon because he would be paired with another guy who likes to jump in the play). I’m just wondering where you think that line is, given that it’s not the difference between Gus and Lilja.
I guess I’m just going on a macro view here: I like the Flyers have five defensemen (and maybe a sixth in Gus) capable of any substantial minutes in the playoffs. SOD played terrible in last year’s playoffs, and I’d expect Lilja to be more of the same, because it’s just not a place where you want slow-footed and mistake-prone guys. I’m not arguing that these are rationally defensible decisions if the goal is maximizing the talent:money spent on it ratio in the regular season. I’m arguing that they don’t care about the sixth/seventh spot short of the players they think could fill in minutes in crunch time, and that they overestimated the likelihood that Walker was one of those players.
Also, I missed the the line on Pronger’s status tomorrow in the other story. Sorry about that.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
No worries about Pronger. I was speaking about talent level, not stylistic fit. But in either event, where that line is drawn is difficult to determine. I’m not nearly as big of a Gus fan as most – he was behind Syvret and Marshall last year on the Phantoms – especially considering his still-evolving defensive game. I’d rather he be on the first pairing in Adirondack, playing tons of PP time and a lot of 5-on-5 against the AHL’s best.
If there’s any hope whatsoever that he becomes a top-4 guy in the future, he has a lot of work on his defensive game to go. So while it’s partly about Gus, partly about Meszaros, partly about the future, mostly I want my sixth and seventh defensemen to count against the cap as much as Walker does, if not less, and be interchangeable to the point where I don’t care if one of them plays 70 games while the other sits.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 22, 2011 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
While some want to pretend there is no salary cap and everything should be determined based on on-ice performance, this is exactly why that can’t be done. I don’t care if Matt Walker out-played Bartulis in training camp. He makes the team worse with his salary, even if he makes it better in the press box.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 22, 2011 3:04 PM EST reply actions
I’ll admit to having a pro-Bartulis bias, but I’m not really sold that Walker actually outplayed the Wolf that much. They both had good and bad moments in the preseason, I just didn’t see enough good from Walker to overcome Homer’s “honestly, we don’t know much about you” quote. Maybe it’s just me.
Warning: Arguing the NHL CBA with me could be hazardous to your mental health. Proceed at your own risk.
by DragonGirl0583 on Nov 22, 2011 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
Walker has a way worse downside. Bartulis is solid if completely unspectacular.
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by Ben Rothenberg on Nov 23, 2011 12:11 AM EST up reply actions
I’ll take solid but unspectacular and less injury prone, at nearly a third of the price, over Walker’s cap hit and tendency to end up on LTIR any day of the week
Warning: Arguing the NHL CBA with me could be hazardous to your mental health. Proceed at your own risk.
by DragonGirl0583 on Nov 23, 2011 1:27 AM EST up reply actions
I’m a little more optimistic than you are about reentry waivers though.
I think it’s less than 50/50 that someone would claim Walker for $850k. I still don’t think the Flyers can risk it, because the downside is terrible, but if nobody wanted Bartulis for $600k, I can’t feel real certain that someone would grab Walker for $850k.
I also think it might be worth trying to get Bartulis back up. The downside ($300k) is much smaller, and again — if nobody wanted him at $600k, does the $300k savings really change things that much? If they’re willing to give Gus #6 minutes and sit Lilja, then I’d leave it alone, but I’d rather try to sneak Bartulis up than have Gus sit in the press box.
But obviously my first choice would be to go back in time and keep Bartulis in the NHL from the beginning, rather than have to take that risk.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
I think there’s a difference between guys passing through waivers without claim at the end of training camp when all of the teams in the league are making tough roster decisions, and guys getting passed over 2 months into the season when teams have holes to fill due to injury. In my opinion, the fact that they were passed over before the season started isn’t really indicative of what will happen now because the context is so different.
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by DragonGirl0583 on Nov 22, 2011 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
They’re definitely more likely to be claimed now, I agree on that. But I also don’t think it’s anywhere near a certainty.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
More stuff from you stupid fans
I conquered the cap. So what if we don’t have Bartulis. He’s at best, what, a 6th D-man? Hmmmph. I needed him to go down to conquer the cap. Done. We move on. I got D-men…from ADK…you saw them last night, didn’t you? Hey, they didn’t score enough, so I sent one of them back. Has to learn to score more, then we would win. Reason we did not win last night. Because I want TALENT on this team. Everybody has to score enough, help G and Jagr to score, then Bryz stops goals from going in. Done. Bartulis, how many goals has he scored at ADK? Hmmmph, stupid 6th D-men. Irrelevant. Need more talent, though, more scorers. More centers.
Oh, and if you think I don’t know, I recall some other guy talked about this in one of your stupid threads awhile back. Bud-somebody. Way before you — is it “Travis”? Do we still let you in to our press conferences? Not sure why.
Anyway, I got Gus on ice, we stashed Harry Z – boy, I like that guy’s name, have no idea how to spell it- so, done, we conquered the cap. We’ll worry about fixing things when it’s time. What, next week? Plenty of time.
- Homer
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's reported bloat-signing
Marc-Andre Bourdon and Kevin Marshall suddenly become your top two options on defense in the system, and that’s with one call-up already in Philadelphia: Erik Gustafsson, who probably isn’t in the ideal position as a seventh defenseman sitting in the press box. Gus is injured now, but when he comes back, he’s likely here to stay as a result of all of this. If he’s in the Flyers lineup, that’s wonderful, but if he’s just sitting in the press box, he’s not growing as a player.
So why assume that Gus will stay? Sure, he’s the top prospect – but if you recognize that the rest of the season will be a loss developmentally for whomever stays, choose the least-likely to develop and keep that player ‘up’; send the others to Adirondack where they gain the benefit of playing. No?
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
Because the Flyers go with who they think is better, not what they think is better for the player/cap.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 22, 2011 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
Well, yeah – but here’s hoping …
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Nov 23, 2011 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
Because nobody’s development ever gets stunted by constantly playing people better than they are in a situation where they aren’t ready yet.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 23, 2011 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
Hartnell with stock rising, is looking like a very nice piece of tradebait
just sayin’
RIP Joey F. You were always up for a game of NHL 2011, no matter how many times I embarrassed you with the one timer. Travel safely. Cheers to a tremendous adversary who was always up for a game of hockey
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Nov 22, 2011 3:39 PM EST reply actions
What are you looking for in return? A 6th/7th Dman and a 3rd line winger? That’s more than most teams will give up for Hartnell’s contract, and it’s probably a loss for the Flyers’ lineup, talentwise.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
Put Scooter on LW, giving him more minutes on the top 3 lines. Schenn ends up centering one of the three top lines. This gives you a lot of room.
Yes, you are losing talent, but you’re gaining maneuverability, a pick, and your prospects are getting more ice time. Betts can come up, you send Shelley down. Your 4th line then becomes Nodl/Betts/Harry Z/Rinaldo
RIP Joey F. You were always up for a game of NHL 2011, no matter how many times I embarrassed you with the one timer. Travel safely. Cheers to a tremendous adversary who was always up for a game of hockey
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Nov 22, 2011 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
Besides the fact that we have no evidence that Betts could play this year, that the Flyers would ever waive Shelley, or that they would move Couturier to the wing (something they could just as easily do now), you’d trade a 20-25 goal second liner for a marginal improvement at 7th D-man, a non-1st-rounder, and some cap room?
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
that’s how bad that contract is
RIP Joey F. You were always up for a game of NHL 2011, no matter how many times I embarrassed you with the one timer. Travel safely. Cheers to a tremendous adversary who was always up for a game of hockey
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Nov 22, 2011 9:32 PM EST up reply actions
And I fully agree. Besides, how much penalty time has Hartnell cost the team so far this season? Thus far, his PTake/60 is 1.6, and his PDrawn/60 is 0.9. That’s an aggregate penalization of having Hartnell on the team of approximately 0.7 penalties per 60 minutes, or almost one minor penalty per game above and beyond the penalty he may draw. Frankly, if you assume a decent average team scores at a rate of 17.5% over a season, Hartnell costs (in power play goals not recoverable by corresponding drawn penalties) 10 goals against per year. So you can subtract that right off his usual ~20 goals per season … and suddenly he just isn’t that valuable anymore. So a decent 6-7 defenseman and some prospect or pick sounds like a reasonable return.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Nov 23, 2011 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
There’s an error in this logic.
That’s an aggregate penalization of having Hartnell on the team of approximately 0.7 penalties per 60 minutes, or almost one minor penalty per game above and beyond the penalty he may draw.
It’s 0.7 penalties per 60 minutes of ice time, not 0.7 penalties per game. Last year, he took 11 penalties more than he drew, so if you assume a 17.5% conversion rate, he cost the team two goals with his penalties, not ten.
Subtract that from his usual 24 goals per season and…he’s still a 22-goal scorer. Which is worth a lot more than a #6/7 defenseman.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
In fact, over the 345 games he’s played since ‘07-08, he’s taken 28 more penalties than he’s drawn, or between 6 and 7 per year. So…figure about one goal per year on average.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
AH – my mistake. I thought those numbers were per 60 minutes of game time, not ice time. As usual, you are correct then.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Nov 23, 2011 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
Although I may take mild issue with characterizing him as a ‘usual 24 goal scorer’. His career average is far less and he’s only one season removed from a 14-goal year … although if he stays on G’s line this year it’ll likely pull that average way up (on pace for 33 goals this season).
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Nov 23, 2011 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
His career goals per game including playoffs is 0.245, which equates to 20 goals over 82 games. If you remove his 2 goal, 75 game rookie season, he is at 0.266, or roughly 22 goals per season. Outside his 1st 3 years in the league he has average at least 0.293 goals per game (24 goals in an 82 game season) outside of that 14 goal season.
Eric isn’t over selling much, or anything at all really.
I got the usual 24 goals based on his time in Philadelphia, where he has 100 goals in 345 games, or 24 goals per 82 games, and where he scored at least 24 goals in three of four years (and is on track to easily do it again this year).
What’s your defense for saying 20 goals? That if you average in his 18-20 year old seasons, that’s what you come up with?
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Sorry, that was harsher than it should have been. I apologize for the tone.
I’m just a little frustrated because it feels like you’re trying to spin the stats to support your view that Hartnell isn’t very good. Some of my issues were probably simple oversights (the confusion about the difference between “per 60” and “per game”, the extrapolation from the first 20 games of penalty rate instead of the career rate). But some clearly show bias, like calling a differential of 0.7 “almost one per game”, or using his career goal average that is pulled down by his teenage years, or specifically bringing up the 14-goal season two years ago to challenge calling him a 24-goal scorer when that’s the only year of the last eight where he didn’t have a 24-goal-per-82-games pace.
I just don’t think you’re objective about Hartnell, and that pushed my buttons. But I still shouldn’t have been obnoxious about it, so I apologize for that.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
No worries – even your “harsher” tone is far less offensive than most people’s normal tone (mine included, I might admit). :)
And yes, I admit to a bias, and to using the numbers to try and justify said bias. Twisting the numbers is the most prevalent use of statistics (or numbers), but it doesn’t excuse it.
I did use Hartnell’s career average for goals-per-game. Only fair, considering that everyone blasted me for using only last year’s production in evaluating Talbot some recent time ago. And the 14-goal season did happen, with the Flyers, so although it appears to be an anomaly it is significant (25% of the time spent here he scores less than 20 goals a season, or something similar). Further, the fact that he’s only gotten 24 PIMs in 20 games thus far this season appears to be either improvement (in an optimists’ eyes) or precipice for a fall (considering his average PIMs with the team would dictate he’d have 34 PIMs by now).
All that said, you’re not wrong. He is on pace to score 34 this year, and have his lowest PIM count ever, and possibly be worth his contract. I still don’t like him as a player – but that doesn’t change anything. If he plays well with G, great. I don’t think he’s on-par with other 20+ goal scorers around the league, but he’s the one we have (for now). Would I rather have Blake Comeau, RJ Umberger, or Brandon Dubinsky? Maybe.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Nov 23, 2011 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
Just as a follow-up, how is tracking 60 minutes of ice-time useful??? I would think the impact per game would be far more important as a statistical measure.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Nov 23, 2011 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
There are two separate questions:
1) How productive is he when he’s on the ice (result per minute of ice time)?
2) How much ice time does he get?
You can multiply them together to figure out his impact on the game, but his talents only directly influence the former. Jody Shelley doesn’t take many penalties per game, but it’s not because he’s good at avoiding penalties; it’s because he doesn’t see the ice, so penalties per unit of ice time is a better measure of his talent.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
OK, but then why is it 60 minutes of ice time? Why not something else, like 20? And while I see your point, I prefer to evaluate a player’s utility as a part of the team, not as an individual – and therefore their influence per game (60 minutes game time) would be far more useful to me. Their influence in 60 minutes of ice time is, as you note, variable upon their minutes per game. Especially because in evaluating a player in the relative terms of salary value, you pay them per game – not per minute of ice time.
Basically I’m just annoyed that a measure I had thought was something … turns out to be something else that is less relatively useful to me. Kinda like finding a bus pass, but realizing it’s only valid in Camden.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Nov 25, 2011 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
idk with scooters skills if he were to get hartnell minutes and even good learning experience with giroux and jagr he could def be a 25 goal scorer if not more i mean hes got great skills he was #1 overal b4 mono…lets face it we arnt gonna win the stanley cup so why wast an 8th overall pick on the 4th line with a jody shelly and bsc..if hartnell means in a year or two we have a prolific(what he was supposed to be)two way forward just like mike richards then i say go for it if not, well like i said we arnt getting the stanley cup this year anyway
Trade Hartnell now… stock won’t be higher. He’s truly a product of being on a line with Giroux and Jagr, as evidenced by his not doing jack when not on this line. Couturier could produce just as many points and get invaluable experience. We could at least get a competent Defender to replace Lilja for Hartnell which would give top guys like Timmo, Carle, Coburn, Mez, and Pronger some much needed rest. Being on the penalty kill for half of every game doesn’t help us either. We are running Timmo and Carle into the ground
If I started playing ice hockey right now, I could be better than Jody Shelley in 2 weeks
He’s truly a product of being on a line with Giroux and Jagr
Isn’t this what they said about Hartnell when he was with Briere and Leino? And isn’t this what they said about him when he was with Carter and Lupul?
This is the third line Hartnell has been a part of in Philly – six different linemates – and all three lines have found immense success.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 22, 2011 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed. Also, to the point about running Timmo and Carle into the ground…
2011-2012: Timonen 21:25 TOI/G, Carle 21:38 TOI/G
2010-2011: Timonen 22:28 TOI/G, Carle 21:59 TOI/G
Timonen is seeing the lowest ice time he’s seen since ‘99-00. Carle’s at his lowest in four years — and just 1:06 per game of shorthanded time, so I don’t think the penalty kills are a big factor.
Lilja might not be particularly good, but he’s getting over 13 minutes a night and I don’t see his weakness putting any huge TOI burden on the top four.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Didn’t see these numbers, but very interesting… I guess I just didn’t really like watching Timmo get undressed by Skinner last night, him being one of our best defensemen. Still just kind of pissed in general at losing back to back to the Jets and Canes, which is pathetic in and of itself
If I started playing ice hockey right now, I could be better than Jody Shelley in 2 weeks
well would you gamblevaluable experience for a number 8 pick for hartnell on a team thats exceedingly unlikely to make the scf? with scooter skill set is possibly making him a better scoring richards worth hartnell?
Every team is exceedingly unlikely to make the Stanley Cup, especially in November. Where are you getting the evidence that Couturier can put up 70+ pt seasons against professional competition? From his 8 points in 20 games?
Wouldn’t they just give Couturier more time with better teammates if they wanted to see that? They don’t need to force themselves into that position by trading anyone.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
If you’re starting from the premise that the team is exceedingly unlikely to make the SCF, why is Hartnell ahead of Pronger and Timonen on your list of guys you’re looking to move?
Those guys carry substantial value right now, but that window is closing. And the Flyers don’t have anyone in the system who can replace them. They seem like natural trade pieces if you’re considering this a rebuilding year.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
because our dmen allow our rookies to explore their offense side of their game. weve seen how defensive minded cooter can be so lets see what offense he brings…yeah hes got 8 points in twenty games but whats his corsi? and whats his minutes per game and when on the ice with shelly and bsc he pretty much has to do it all
I will NOT trade Hartnell. I have overcome the cap.
-Homer
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's reported bloat-signing
I’m reminded of the interview with John Paddock during intermission of the first Phantoms game this year. He mentioned how the Organization was really excited w/ a number of prospects that they likely will call up to Philly this season. Among forwards he cited Wellwood, Schenn, Harry Z, Testuide, and (IIRC) Akeson. Among d-men he cited Marshall, Bourdon, and Kessel. When asked specifically about Sestito and Bartulis, Paddock fumbled and stuttered a moment before finally finding nice things to say about them in an obligatory fashion. It sounded to me like management has little to no confidence in those two; unlikely they will be recalled at all. Maybe after the trade deadline when cap/ roster limits no longer apply (as it were), we might see Bartulis, but don’t hold your breath. Signing Lilja was a stab in the back for Bartulis, imo.
Really great article, Travis. Horrible content but very well done.
Question for everyone…at what point do you think Homer is actually in jeopardy? I mean obviously Snider doesn’t seem to mind this constant struggle to fit in under the cap so what does he have to do to really be considered for termination? Do the Flyers have to miss the playoffs completely? Take a 10-13 game winless streak?
Flyers Fans: We've survived Lock-outs, Lindros and Cooperalls. If you want to get rid of us, you'll have to split an atom or two.
IMO no until at least one of the following happen.
1. He stops listening to Ed and makes the moves he wants to make
2. He has fired the Flyers capologist already
3. He has fired Lavy already
4. The Flyers don’t make the playoffs.
This year, I think it would take a playoff miss. In the future, either a playoff miss or a string of 1st/2nd round exits will do.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
When Marc-Andre Bourdon and Kevin Marshall were forced into making their NHL debuts last night,
God forbid! Been hearing about these two for long enough, if they aren’t ready yet, get rid of their asses! And Bartulis is nothing either. All of these guys are interchangeable spare parts players.
Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!
DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.
The point of the article is that not all these interchangeable spare parts can be interchanged freely because the Flyers fucked up something pretty obvious.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
“These widgets are all pretty much the same, but we need to have a couple around.”
“I like this one.”
“That one costs $170. Wouldn’t you rather have the one that’s $60 and just as good?”
“Nah, I have $175 in my pocket, so I can afford the $170 one.”
“But you’re going to need money later to buy other stuff. And the $60 one is a limited-time offer that will be gone tomorrow.”
“Tomorrow tomorrow tomorrow. Always you with the kvetching. Here’s a quarter; go buy a piece of gum, stick it in your mouth, and shut the hell up. I’m buying the $170 one.”
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
by Eric T. on Nov 22, 2011 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
This makes me both very happy and sad.
And those color tables are amazing, and I have no idea whatsoever how you did them. Impressive stuff, Hughes.
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Broad Street Hockey.
and artistic
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Nov 23, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
HA!
Although the man hated green.
As Mondrian was probably incapable of irony, the tulip was unlikely to be a wry joke about his having had to produce flowerpieces between 1922 and 1925 when he no longer wanted to because there were no buyers for his abstracts. It could, of course, have been a revenge for the agony a compromise of that sort must have cost him. More likely, it was simply a part of the general revulsion against green and growth which made him, when seated at a table beside a window through which trees were visible to him, persuade someone to change places.
I wouldn’t go nearly as far but I would say that Kelly Green must be forever banned. It’s evil. Don’t touch it.
.
chlorophobia, hmm. though i guess it’s not really a fear. good to know. and i’ve never seen time bandits, of which as a Pythonphile I am ashamed.
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Nov 23, 2011 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
Chlorophobic child won’t eat vegetables.
Oh you should see Time Bandits though I’d have to say some of my love of that movie is steeped in childhood nostaglia. My perception is somewhat tainted. I know people who put this movie way too high on the must see list. However it’s Gilliam and I think he has yet to make a truly bad movie – nonetheless, it’s not Brazil.
Easily one of my favorite movies as a kid. Not sure what that says about my childhood …
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Nov 25, 2011 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
BTW
I like your new handle. I was thinking of doing something along the lines of “I hate long handles”.
yeah, i’d never used one before. i figured this one saves me some explaining.
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Nov 23, 2011 7:22 PM EST up reply actions
I remember toward the end of training camp, Holmgren said something to Walker along the lines of “No one’s seen you play” or something stupid like that. Then Walker got to playing and everyone realized that he didn’t only suck last year because he had fifty injuries. He sucked last year because he sucks at defense.
I really think the Flyers were trying to showcase him for a deal, and in order to do that, they had to play him in the NHL. It was a risk they could technically afford to take, but it didn’t work out and they’re paying for it now.
The safer option would have been to keep Bartulis up and wait for the injury bug to strike some marginal team, who maybe would accept a deal for Walker out of dire need.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
2 things
1 at this point is gustaffsons potential realized at being a number 4/5 dman or is there still time to improve
2 why the hell does any1 ever want to be an accountant
On January 1, Armada Corporation had 95,000 shares of no-par common stock issued and outstanding. The stock has a stated value of $5 per share. During the year, the following occurred.
Apr. 1 Issued 15,000 additional shares of common stock for $17 per share.
June 15 Declared a cash dividend of $1 per share to stockholders of record on June 30.
July 10 Paid the $1 cash dividend.
Dec. 1 Issued 2,000 additional shares of common stock for $19 per share.
Dec. 15 Declared a cash dividend on outstanding shares of $1.20 per share to stockholders of record on December 31.
Prepare the entries, if any, on each of the three dividend dates.
does that sound fun to any of you UGH!
Gus is not a 4/5 defenseman and he has a long way to go to get there. But it’s still possible.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 22, 2011 7:12 PM EST up reply actions
sorry should have read potential is to be 4/5 defensemen is it possible he could be a 2/3 d man or is he maxed already….damn accounting has me frazzled
It’s not the best, but Hockey’s Future has him as a 7.0 C, meaning No. 3-4 Defenseman, may reach potential, could drop 2 ratings.
So they see him as at best a #3, at worst a #7.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 22, 2011 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
I think you underestimate just how good Matt Carle and Braydon Coburn are.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 22, 2011 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed. Carle and Coburn are the #3 and #4 in this lineup, behind Pronger and Timonen, but that doesn’t mean they’re typical, or that they’re what someone means when they say a guy projects to be a #3-4 type.
If I say someone might be a #1 defender, I don’t necessarily mean they’ll be at Pronger’s level. If I say they might be a #2 defender, I almost certainly don’t mean they’ll be at Timonen’s. If I say they might be a #5, I probably don’t mean they’ll be at Mez’s.
You gotta calibrate for league average, not any specific team’s lineup.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Last year, Carle faced second-pair competition, pushed the play forwards for a +6 Corsi Rel, and scored 1.37 P/60. This year, he’s facing second pair competition, pushing the play forwards for a +3 Corsi Rel, and scoring 1.31 P/60. The zone starts are a little more favorable and the results are a little weaker, so it’s slightly worse at this point, but clearly on the same level.
Coburn’s numbers have taken more of a hit. But I’d still judge the player more on the hundreds of games over the last year or two than over the 20 games so far this year.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
I need one of those.
SB Nation Tennis -- Fuzzy yellow balls.
Broad Street Hockey.
by Ben Rothenberg on Nov 23, 2011 12:12 AM EST up reply actions
Let’s sum up Danny Briere’s last couple weeks:
a) get checked off the puck legally 4-5 times a game killing good shifts by his line
b) get stuffed in close on the power play by every goalie as the NHL has now figured out his entire game is roofing shots from 2 feet out
c) get a minor (sometimes major) high sticking penalty every game
d) try to stick handle too much into the zone, get stripped, and then not get back on the ensuing odd-man rush
I know the guys money in the playoffs but come on, at least look interested out there, at $8 million or whatever he’s making
If I started playing ice hockey right now, I could be better than Jody Shelley in 2 weeks
b) get stuffed in close on the power play by every goalie as the NHL has now figured out his entire game is roofing shots from 2 feet out
It only took them 9 years, 4 weeks, and 5 days to figure it out!
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 22, 2011 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
so i just saw kim johnsson is a free agent.. did he realy decline after the flyers or did he just ask for 2 much?
He’s had health issues for a number of years. The Flyers were concerned about his concussion issues, so they let him walk. Then he had back problems in Minnesota. He’s probably serviceable, but he’s not the guy he used to be either.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
What happened with Blake Kessel? I remember hearing his name a lot in the preseason, but didn’t actually get to see him play. Did he not live up to the hype, or what?
He’s in ADK. He played in one of the games we went up for but didn’t see a lot of ice time. Mostly PP usage, or so it seemed (I think Geoff was tracking ice time). He did make one really good defensive play on an odd man rush. But he still needs a lot more time.
Does that mean he at least looks like he could be a decent player at some point rather than just another scrub who will never make it out of the AHL for anything other than call-up duty?
Right now there are players that are far more polished IMO using my eyes. He is the same age as Bourdon (youngest of the 4 by 5 months) and Marshall, and close to Gus. If you trust hockey’s future here are the ranks:
Kessel: 7.0D
Marshall: 6.5C
Bourdon: 6.5C
Gus: 7.0C
The numbers are their rating, the letters are likelihood of reaching the rating. 7.0 means a 3/4 Dman and 6.0 means a 5/6 Dman. C is may reach potential or could drop 2 ratings (5.0 is 7th Dman). D is unlikely to reach potential, could drop 3 ratings (4.0 is top minor league Dman)
If you trust my eyes more I think Marshall is the best of the group, but Gus will appeal to more people (two completely different styles). I think Gus and Marshall are both ahead (talent wise) of Bourdon at this point because of his injury problems. All three are ahead of Kessel I think, but I’ve also ever seen him play limited minutes in one game. I think Kessel could be a 3rd pairing guy and Power Play specialist at some point.
Honestly, I don’t know much about any of them. Of the lot, who is the stay-at-home type, and who are the types who will be puck movers?
Marshall is the stay at home type (though this year he seems to be jumping in to the play more, ADK seems to be playing a more aggressive system similar to the Flyers, at least in the 2 games we saw). He is a very good skater and typically plays his angles very well. He also uses his body very effectively. His biggest fault is moving the puck. Last year I thought he was decent, or at least better than advertised, this year he seems to rely on his pairing partner for most of the passes.
Gus is definitely more of a puck mover and offensive Dman, which I think people gravitate to more, or at least notice more. Last year I saw him in a couple games in ADK where he made mistake after mistake with his outlets, this year he has looked adequate with the Flyers. I prefer Marshall to him personally, but I’m in the very small minority, or possibly the only one.
Bourdon is somewhere between Marshall and Gus. He isn’t as slick as Gus is but has an offensive game; Gus definitely makes a far superior PP QB. He also likes to look for the big hit and will drop the gloves.
Kessel is a converted forward, his biggest attribute is his ability to jump up in the play and the PP. I really haven’t seen enough of him to give a proper opinion.
I tracked ice time the game he was a healthy scratch, not the game he played.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 23, 2011 3:13 PM EST up reply actions

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