Beyond the Big Four: Internal Third Pairing Options Going Forward

by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 16, 2011 3:55 PM EST in Philadelphia Flyers Features

Chris Pronger is done for the season. This is horrible news for Chris, his health, his career, his family, and his employer. And with the nature of the NHL these days, the news has quickly led people into speculation about what it means for the NHL, for player safety, and especially here, for the Flyers.

Looking at outside options would certainly be fun, but there's just so much that goes into that speculation. Is that player available? What would it cost to acquire him? Can the Flyers afford that player under the cap? And so much more.

So instead, we'll look at what we can easily look at: How the in-house options for the Flyers' third pairing has performed so far this season.

While we could look at how these players have performed in all situations, at five-on-five, in tied games, or a few others, what you see below is the performance at five-on-five in close games, defined as any game situation within one goal in the first and second periods, or tied in the third period.

All data is from the fantastic Time on Ice site. The table is sortable by column.

Name	GP	GF	GA	Shots%	Fen%	Corsi%	Save%	Shooting%
Matt Walker	3	1	2	55.0%	51.9%	54.1%	0.778	9.1%
Andreas Lilja	19	7	4	54.9%	51.6%	51.2%	0.938	8.9%
Team	30	42	26	53.2%	50.7%	50.9%	0.924	10.9%
Kevin Marshall	8	5	1	53.3%	48.2%	48.8%	0.952	20.8%
Marc-Andre Bourdon	11	4	4	46.0%	47.1%	48.9%	0.882	13.8%
Erik Gustafsson	5	4	2	42.4%	44.2%	44.3%	0.895	28.6%

The first thing that must be said is that this is obviously a limited sample. Second, there is no usage information - are they being used in the offensive zone, defensive zone, against fourth liners, against second liners, etc. - to help put these numbers in context. There aren't many conclusions that can be drawn from this because of that, but it's at least interesting to look at.

For players like Walker and Lilja, they have track records beyond their time in Philadelphia that would certainly help determine what we can expect from them going forward better than the above information.

What do I take out of this information? Well, all three of Marshall, Bourdon, and Gustafsson are below the team in Fenwick percentage and Corsi percentage while being above the team in shooting percentage. So the Flyers are spending more time in their own end when those three are on the ice than when those three are off, but the team is getting really lucky at the other end when those three are on.

Something I've seen written in a few places recently is that the return of Erik Gustafsson will help alleviate the loss of Pronger, as he deserves to play over at least Marshall. The numbers here don't bear that out. I've long expected that Gustafsson would be a fan favorite due to his offensive play, but he just hasn't shown that he belongs in the NHL yet.

Granted, none of the young trio has shown they belong in the NHL yet, which is why I don't understand how anybody - whether it be Marshall, Gustafsson, or Bourdon - can be said to have separated themselves from the other two.

What I think is important to remember here is that the Flyers are only looking for - at most - one of Gustafsson, Bourdon, and Marshall to play in the NHL. And they are only looking for one of them to be the sixth guy on defense. When Andreas Lilja returns, he will be on the third pairing. Maybe Matt Walker rejoins the team (shudder) and marginalizes the rookies back to the press box or Adirondack.

This is the whole point of having Andrej Meszaros on the third pairing - when you lose a top-4 guy, you only need to replace him with a third-pairing defender. Third pairing defenders are everywhere. The Flyers have about five of them already.

While the in-house options certainly don't look promising, but all three are 23 years old or younger. They are all rookies. And last year, the Flyers bottom-pairing guys ended the year like this:

Name	GP	GF	GA	Shots%	Fen%	Corsi%	Save%	Shooting%
Oskars Bartulis	13	1	4	43.4%	39.1%	40.2%	0.932	2.3%
Sean O`Donnell	81	30	19	45.2%	44.4%	45.2%	0.949	9.8%
Team	82	126	81	52.9%	51.8%	51.1%	0.930	9.7%
Danny Syvret	4	1	0	56.3%	55.6%	55.2%	1.000	5.6%
Nick Boynton	10	1	3	36.1%	35.9%	35.8%	0.923	4.5%
Erik Gustafsson	3	0	1	44.4%	42.9%	41.7%	0.800	0.0%
Matt Walker	4	1	1	33.3%	40.0%	35.2%	0.938	12.5%

That doesn't look any better than what the third pairing guys have done this year. The only difference is that Sean O`Donnell stayed healthy while Andreas Lilja hasn't. Is O`Donnell's health really the only reason nobody was calling for an immediate trade for one of the NHL's best defensemen when Pronger went down last year? I can't believe it was.

I'm sure Marshall, Bourdon, or Gustafsson can play as well as Bartulis, Boynton, Walker, Syvret, and Gustafsson did last year, when there was not a problem on the third pairing.

And if not, the Flyers could just re-acquire Danny Syvret again. They could certainly do worse.

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Hey Marsh, its’ not easy to Do-Si-Do to “Knock Knock”.

"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
#FireRoseman
@boknows71

by boknows71 on Dec 16, 2011 4:08 PM EST reply actions

Geoff what about turnover information. That is what my perception is telling me separates Marshall and MAB. MAB seems to get the puck out of the zone once he gets possession where as Marshall sometimes struggles to clear or his outlet pass isn’t as crisp.

Talbot 5 Nodl 0 11/7/2011

by chrislanci on Dec 16, 2011 4:34 PM EST reply actions

Bourdon has 5, Marshall has 1.

But even if it was reversed, giveaways don’t tell you much. The Flyers best players are the ones with the most giveaways: Carle, Timonen, Coburn, Jagr, Giroux are the top-5 in giveaways.

Should they not have the puck on their sticks?

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 17, 2011 12:14 AM EST up reply actions

bourdon

Are you crazy. Bourdon is playing good hockey, and getting better every day. You don’t know shit!

by SLICKRICKJR on Dec 16, 2011 4:39 PM EST reply actions

That’s an excellent point.

@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey

by Eric T. on Dec 16, 2011 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 12 recs

Rec’d

OMB!
Flyers writer at hockeytracker.net
Follow me @HTJohnMoritz (BSH is doing it, why aren't you)

by FlyerFan139 on Dec 16, 2011 5:06 PM EST up reply actions

This made me lol.

Might as well just hand them over.

by All ur Aces R Belong to Us on Dec 16, 2011 5:32 PM EST up reply actions

You’re a winner at the game of Life.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Dec 16, 2011 5:52 PM EST up reply actions

Hahahahahahahahaha

G, the second coming of Foppa.
Embrace the Jagr.*

by JerseyDriver on Dec 16, 2011 6:38 PM EST up reply actions

Prove it.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Dec 16, 2011 5:50 PM EST up reply actions

geoff detwiller is a moron. he “crunches numbers” and all the sudden thinks he knows something about hockey. he is a glorified message board nerd, and a clueless fuck who should just keep his mouth shut, and stick to compiling links from people who actually REPORT on hockey, and know what they’re talking about. he should keep his shitty, dumb opinion where it belongs, on some random flyers message board. Im here to tell him he is a dumb fuck, thats it.

by mtitanic on Dec 16, 2011 6:10 PM EST up reply actions

i believe his name is jeff

Visit the BSH Store :: Get us on Twitter :: facebook, too!
Broad Street Hockey - Covering the Philadelphia Flyers. Have you accepted Ilya Bryzgalov as your savior?

by Travis Hughes on Dec 16, 2011 6:36 PM EST up reply actions

HI JEFF!!!!!111

/champanderson

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Dec 16, 2011 6:38 PM EST up reply actions

Guy doesn’t even show up for practice. phfft

G, the second coming of Foppa.
Embrace the Jagr.*

by JerseyDriver on Dec 16, 2011 6:39 PM EST up reply actions

that was an excellent compendium of the more frothy critiques.

/s, more often than not

by flyersfaninchicago on Dec 16, 2011 6:53 PM EST up reply actions

Wait...

Who glorifies Detty?

by BannedStreetBully on Dec 16, 2011 7:19 PM EST up reply actions

Excellent flashback.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 16, 2011 9:35 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

You know, this is what happens in academia too. If you present something at a conference that threatens someone else’s research, or even worse, present something that the alpha researchers/professors don’t actually understand, the ad hominem attacks are immediately engaged.

GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal

by Bud in TN on Dec 16, 2011 10:52 PM EST up reply actions

Is O`Donnell’s health really the only reason nobody was calling for an immediate trade for one of the NHL’s best defensemen when Pronger went down last year? I can’t believe it was.

Last season’s injury to Pronger did not appear to be a career ending injury, while this one does. Last season we also learned how this defense corps and team as a whole play with and without Pronger. It’s only natural for us, as fans to speculate as to how the team should move forward. While I’m interested in that discussion, I think for now it is best to keep it extremely hypothetical, since this team appears to be winning hockey games without Pronger and with rookies on the bottom pairing. The return of Lilja will only help matters.

by hebrew hammer on Dec 16, 2011 4:44 PM EST reply actions

i’m actually glad that marshall and bourdon are getting a shot and impressing along the way.

bourdon has gone through the rollercoaster and it looks like he is panning after all. which is always pleasant.

-tim
Make no little plans; they have no magic to stir men's blood. ~ Daniel H. Burnham

by edesjardins37 on Dec 16, 2011 5:41 PM EST reply actions

Bourdon is panning?

Is he panning to the left or right? If I listen to him on headphones, am I going to get dizzy?

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Dec 16, 2011 5:51 PM EST up reply actions

No, no, I think he means panning for gold like an old prospector.

by mtitanic on Dec 16, 2011 6:00 PM EST up reply actions

i meant spanning… he’s finally spanning from A to Z… duh

-tim
Make no little plans; they have no magic to stir men's blood. ~ Daniel H. Burnham

by edesjardins37 on Dec 16, 2011 6:18 PM EST up reply actions

no wait… meant panning… and hopefully his shot will end with a diamond wipe fade to black.

-tim
Make no little plans; they have no magic to stir men's blood. ~ Daniel H. Burnham

by edesjardins37 on Dec 16, 2011 6:20 PM EST up reply actions

Defenders scoring chances +/- per 60 mins of ice time through games 1-28

M. CARLE 5.51
E. GUSTAFSSON 3.57
C. PRONGER 3.37
K. TIMONEN 2.26
A. MESZAROS 2.24
M. WALKER 1.75
A. LILJA 1.00
Team average 0.92
B. COBURN -1.36
M. BOURDON -2.57
K. MARSHALL -6.56

Obviously the sample size for a lot of these guys is quite small, but the chances story is quite different to what Fenwick/Corsi is telling us about Gus.

Also, Matt Carle is really really good.

Tracking the Flyers scoring chances at Broad Street Hockey

by ToddtheFox on Dec 16, 2011 6:06 PM EST reply actions

Also, Matt Carle is really really good.

I’m afraid that if Homer does end up doing a deal for Shea Weber, Carle will go the other way.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Dec 16, 2011 6:30 PM EST up reply actions

Along with a lot of other stuff that most here don’t want moved.

by Bud in TN on Dec 16, 2011 10:54 PM EST up reply actions

but the chances story is quite different to what Fenwick/Corsi is telling us about Gus.

Not really. Geoff gave the Corsi in close games, whereas you gave the scoring chances in all situations. If we include all situations in the Corsi assessment, we find the following ranking:

Carle
Pronger
Meszaros
Timonen
Gustafsson

Which is a little different, but not all that big a change.

@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey

by Eric T. on Dec 16, 2011 6:53 PM EST up reply actions

I’m annoyed that this article had the shooting percentage listed for 3rd line defensive d-men, but not +/-.

Go ahead and like new made-up stats all you want, good for you. Just don’t screw with the old trusted numbers.

by BannedStreetBully on Dec 16, 2011 7:21 PM EST reply actions

That is team on-ice shooting percentage, not individual. So the team is scoring at an unsustainable rate when Marshall, Gus or Bourdon is on the rink, which would also inflate their plus minus.

Tracking the Flyers scoring chances at Broad Street Hockey

by ToddtheFox on Dec 16, 2011 7:37 PM EST up reply actions

Plus/minus is old, but it is anything but trustworthy.

Remember last year when The Meszaros was plus ∞ and was named the Flyers’ best defenseman?

That’s because he was out against weak competition, and that weak competition usually got scored upon by the HBL line.

It has everything to do with situation and nothing to do with skill.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Dec 16, 2011 8:15 PM EST up reply actions

At what point do people see the flaws in plus/minus? If you don’t care to look at the why behind a statistic, how can you pick one statistic over another?

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 17, 2011 12:20 AM EST up reply actions

I seen it! I am beginning to think it’s an eyes thing, because you can easily see goals, so therefore +/- is easy to see or calculate. On the other hand, you actually have to do some work to get corsi or some of the other new stats (new also probably being a major problem as well). This work is called math, and therefore the Flyers FO probably shuns these type of stats since they have to try and explain them to Homer.

G, the second coming of Foppa.
Embrace the Jagr.*

by JerseyDriver on Dec 17, 2011 12:46 AM EST up reply actions

It’s honestly not even math, though. Trust me, I’m absolutely clueless when it comes to math. Corsi and Fenwick are both basically +/-, only they use shots instead of goals. The only difference between Corsi and Fenwick is Corsi counts blocked shots and Fenwick doesn’t. It’s almost EXACTLY the same as the “old, trusted numbers.”

Now shooting percentage is math…but Corsi/Fenwick are not.

I <3 our rookies.

by LeepinLizardz on Dec 17, 2011 8:14 AM EST up reply actions

And shooting percentage isn’t even hard math. It’s just division. Seriously, I hate math, and if I can get it (I’m actually still figuring it all out) it can’t possibly be all that complicated.

I <3 our rookies.

by LeepinLizardz on Dec 17, 2011 8:18 AM EST up reply actions

counting shots is math and so is division :) Its just basic math that almost anybody can understand, does not make it any less math :)

by Anders Jensen on Dec 17, 2011 9:46 AM EST up reply actions

One! One blocked shot! Ah-ha-ha!

Bob.

by The Dark on Dec 17, 2011 10:56 AM EST up reply actions

I was doing a reading, and some jerkoff over at the Sens blog purported, “Maybe Gonchar goes to Philly in a deal for Schenn”

My immediate thoughts were: I’d trade Gus for Gonchar straight up, but Schenn for a d-man in his late 30s? No thanks

I don't normally read stats, but when I do, the names Detweiller, Eric or Don are involved.

Stay educated, my friends

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Dec 16, 2011 10:09 PM EST reply actions

I bring you this piece of wisdom from Arctic Ice Hockey:

Philadelphia Flyers GM Paul Holmgren has a large hole to fill on his back-end.

@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey

by Eric T. on Dec 16, 2011 10:15 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

(teeheehee)

I <3 our rookies.

by LeepinLizardz on Dec 17, 2011 8:15 AM EST up reply actions

spastic colon?

by reaper1221 on Dec 17, 2011 10:15 AM EST up reply actions

Wow.

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Dec 18, 2011 10:41 AM EST up reply actions

To everyone talking trades

Usually I’m for trades, as long as they’re smart. But this team is a different animal. A LOT of young, raw talent. A lot of exciting young players. And two rookie D-Men who are impressing me right now. I don’t even want Lilja back.

Point is, I don’t want Harry Z or Voracek or Matt Read being traded to help our D right now. I don’t want Bob being traded to remove all ideas of depth in net. If a trade is going to be made, I can only see it being done through draft picks. Is it what I want? No. But with the team as it is, who is tradeable?

It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.

by Dr. Steve on Dec 16, 2011 10:56 PM EST reply actions

FYI, you are actually directly in the BSH mainstream right now with your first comment. Almost all of us would agree.

On the second comment, we wish it was only those guys going the other way for a really big trade. If it were Suter/Weber, say goodbye to, at minimum, Carle AND Schenn and/or Scooter. So I agree with your sentiment, but unless the Flyguys want to replace D with something not much better than what they have in-house, something more than the guys you mention would have to be involved (in other words, even yuckier).

by Bud in TN on Dec 16, 2011 11:01 PM EST up reply actions

Carle is possibly our best and most versatile defenseman once Kimo leaves. If Coburn and Mez are here to fill Pronger’s shoes, than Carle is here for Kimo. He is way, way more valuable as a result, and he’s SO GOOD ON OFFENSE.

I hate, hate, hate, hate any Carle hate, and I detest the “trade Carle” talk. You can’t trade Carle to get better on defense, it’s an impossibility.

Schenn or Scooter should be untouchables. Hell, Voracek is an untouchable for me. But then again, there’s no one I’d want to trade. I’m more in the “Trade draft picks, or sign them in free agency.” And any trade should be near the deadline, when teams are more desperate.

No one was panicking before this news, and I doubted Pronger would return. Fuck, man!

It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.

by Dr. Steve on Dec 16, 2011 11:18 PM EST up reply actions

Just for the record, in another thread, I said the Flyers should do….nothing.

by Bud in TN on Dec 17, 2011 1:05 AM EST up reply actions

Samsies.

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Dec 18, 2011 10:41 AM EST up reply actions

And any trade should be near the deadline, when teams are more desperate.

If we were sellers at the deadline – yes. But we’ll never be sellers at the deadline, which I guess is another way of saying we’re always an in contention team who will overpay for the ‘final piece’ rather than sell away our overpaid veterans for the smart picks/prospects.

Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.

One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.

by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 17, 2011 1:59 AM EST up reply actions

There’s very few players we can get rid of on the current team. It’s just not possible. They’re either great inexpensive pieces that contribute greatly with high energy, or are vital cogs in the current machine. There’s zero expendables.

It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.

by Dr. Steve on Dec 17, 2011 2:09 AM EST up reply actions

And if not, the Flyers could just re-acquire Danny Syvret again. They could certainly do worse.

And I was listening to DSOD giving a shoutout to all of us as I was reading this column! Awesome!
/Special s/t to Chem, of course.

by Bud in TN on Dec 16, 2011 10:56 PM EST reply actions

Trade Schenn and a 1st for Derek Morris. Panic … it’s what’s for dinner.

Lifelong Tennessean, Flyers' fan for life

by TNBrando on Dec 17, 2011 8:02 AM EST reply actions

What would that even accomplish? Trading for another player to be passed by Harry Z on the depth chart? Or maybe locker room presence? Or perhaps crushing any hopes of replacing Danny B?

It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.

by Dr. Steve on Dec 17, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions

Replacing him when his contract expires as the second line center, is what I meant. Not getting rid of him.

It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.

by Dr. Steve on Dec 17, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions

Sorry, I was just being sarcastic. I’m not sure I’d trade ANYTHING to get Morris at this point, let alone Schenn. When cooler heads prevail, we’ll realize that if the Flyers have a need on defense, it’s in the 5/6 positions, not the 1/2 positions. And it’s conceivable that a tandem of Bourdon/Gus/Marshall can handle the 5/6/7 positions fine.

Lifelong Tennessean, Flyers' fan for life

by TNBrando on Dec 17, 2011 11:20 AM EST up reply actions

what does everyone think

about trying to trade 4 on of these guys John Carlson (Capitals)
Drew Doughty (Kings)
Cam Fowler (Ducks)
Jack Johnson (Kings)
Erik Karlsson (Senators)
Tyler Myers (Sabres)
?

by reaper1221 on Dec 17, 2011 11:15 AM EST reply actions

Of those, maybe Johnson is available. Otherwise, I think the players on your list are untouchable, for good reason.

Lifelong Tennessean, Flyers' fan for life

by TNBrando on Dec 17, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

That would make my John Carlson Capitals jersey obsolete.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 17, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions