Philadelphia Flyers Scoring Chance Summary: Game 12-22
It's been a while since I posted the game-by-game scoring chance results (sorry, I'll try get them out soon), I've still been recording the chances for all the games and I thought a chance summary was more interesting anyway.
The Flyers chance summary for games 1-11 can be found here.
Total team chances: Games 1-22
| Total CF | Total CA | Total Chance % | EV CF | EV CA | EV % | PP CF | PP CA | SH CF | SH CA | |
| 1 | 125 | 95 | 57% | 82 | 68 | 55% | 37 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 2 | 128 | 105 | 55% | 81 | 84 | 49% | 38 | 3 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 123 | 86 | 59% | 94 | 59 | 61% | 20 | 2 | 9 | 25 |
| 4 | 2 | 7 | 22% | 2 | 3 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Totals | 378 | 293 | 56% | 259 | 214 | 55% | 95 | 8 | 24 | 71 |
This table is shown from the Flyers perspective, so SH CF/CA indicates the totals while the opponent is on the powerplay.
- Through the first 11 games the Flyers were getting 58% total chances and 57% of chances at even-strength, which is really good. After 22 games they have managed to sustain this advantage in chances generating 56% of the total chances and 55% at even strength.
- The Flyers play an awful lot of the game with special teams, more than any other team in the league. I don't know the total number of PP opportunities the Flyers had at 22 games, but their current rate is 4.6 PP for per game (145 PP for in 31 games). Given that, the Flyers get nearly one chance on every powerplay with 4.3 PP chances per game (95 chances in 22 games). I'm not sure how that compares to other teams, but it compares well with the Flyers opponents. The Flyers give 4.8 PP against per game and allows 3.2 PP chances per game. Not only does the Flyers PK allow a much lower number of chances than the teams PP generates, they also get a good number of short-handed chances with at least one per game.
Jump for the team and individual summaries for games 12-22
Total team chances: Games 12-22
| Period | Total CF | Total CA | Total C% | EV CF | EV CA | EV C% | PP CF | PP CA | SH CF | SH CA |
| 1 | 54 | 50 | 52% | 40 | 38 | 51% | 11 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 2 | 64 | 49 | 57% | 35 | 34 | 51% | 24 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 3 | 56 | 43 | 57% | 42 | 33 | 56% | 8 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 2 | 3 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Totals | 176 | 146 | 55% | 119 | 108 | 52% | 43 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
- 55% of total chances and 52% of even-strength chances is still pretty good, but not as good as the first 11 games.
- On the penalty kill the Flyers get one chance for every two their opponents powerplay manages. That is nuts.
Indidual even-strength chances
| Player | ES TOI | ES CF | ES CA | Chance % | ES C/60 | ES CA/60 | SC +/- per 60 |
| K. MARSHALL | 14.18333 | 8 | 3 | 73% | 33.8 | 12.7 | 21.2 |
| J. SHELLEY | 16.93333 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 17.7 | 7.1 | 10.6 |
| E. WELLWOOD | 13.35 | 5 | 3 | 63% | 22.5 | 13.5 | 9.0 |
| J. VORACEK | 135.9 | 45 | 27 | 63% | 19.9 | 11.9 | 7.9 |
| H. ZOLNIERCZYK | 62.96667 | 14 | 7 | 67% | 13.3 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| M. CARLE | 194.2833 | 58 | 41 | 59% | 17.9 | 12.7 | 5.3 |
| S. COUTURIER | 98.15 | 25 | 18 | 58% | 15.3 | 11.0 | 4.3 |
| M. TALBOT | 131.2833 | 37 | 28 | 57% | 16.9 | 12.8 | 4.1 |
| M. READ | 96.31667 | 25 | 20 | 56% | 15.6 | 12.5 | 3.1 |
| A. MESZAROS | 171.55 | 39 | 31 | 56% | 13.6 | 10.8 | 2.8 |
| A. LILJA | 131.65 | 32 | 26 | 55% | 14.6 | 11.8 | 2.7 |
| E. GUSTAFSSON | 53.21667 | 14 | 12 | 54% | 15.8 | 13.5 | 2.3 |
| S. HARTNELL | 163.9667 | 44 | 38 | 54% | 16.1 | 13.9 | 2.2 |
| I. BRYZGALOV | 287.4167 | 69 | 62 | 53% | 14.4 | 12.9 | 1.5 |
| S. BOBROVSKY | 208.5167 | 50 | 46 | 52% | 14.4 | 13.2 | 1.2 |
| J. JAGR | 85.1 | 19 | 18 | 51% | 13.4 | 12.7 | 0.7 |
| W. SIMMONDS | 128.4 | 27 | 26 | 51% | 12.6 | 12.1 | 0.5 |
| K. TIMONEN | 151.9333 | 32 | 31 | 51% | 12.6 | 12.2 | 0.4 |
| C. GIROUX | 168.7667 | 44 | 43 | 51% | 15.6 | 15.3 | 0.4 |
| A. NODL | 40.98333 | 6 | 7 | 46% | 8.8 | 10.2 | -1.5 |
| M. BOURDON | 40.91667 | 6 | 7 | 46% | 8.8 | 10.3 | -1.5 |
| J. VAN RIEMSDYK | 118.7667 | 22 | 26 | 46% | 11.1 | 13.1 | -2.0 |
| C. PRONGER | 74.1 | 15 | 19 | 44% | 12.1 | 15.4 | -3.2 |
| B. COBURN | 167.8 | 34 | 46 | 43% | 12.2 | 16.4 | -4.3 |
| D. BRIERE | 146.8333 | 21 | 37 | 36% | 8.6 | 15.1 | -6.5 |
| Z. RINALDO | 58.45 | 8 | 15 | 35% | 8.2 | 15.4 | -7.2 |
| B. HOLMSTROM | 4.033333 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 0.0 | 29.8 | -29.8 |
ES TOI, even-strength time on ice; ES CF/CA, total even-strength chances for/against; chance%, percentage of chances for when on the ice ES C/60, number of even-strength chances per 60 minutes of ice time; SC +/- per 60, chances for-chances against per 60 minutes of ice time.
- There are lots of sample size issues here, but I wanted to include every player.
- Ignoring those players with small sample sizes (unless you have to say something good about Shelley), Voracek, Zolnierczyk, Carle, Couturier and Talbot were impressive over this stretch.
- Read, Meszaros, Lilja, Gustaffsson and Hartnell were pretty good too.
- What's interesting is Jagr, Simmonds, Timonen and Giroux all barely breaking even at even-strength.
- What's even more interesting is how bad JVR, Pronger, Coburn and Briere were at even-strength.
Powerplay individual scoring chances for
Note: For the special teams section, the goalies and players with low TOI have been removed
| Player | PP TOI | PP CF | PP CF/2min |
| J. VORACEK | 32.0 | 20 | 1.2 |
| C. GIROUX | 41.5 | 24 | 1.2 |
| S. HARTNELL | 37.3 | 21 | 1.1 |
| D. BRIERE | 38.4 | 21 | 1.1 |
| K. TIMONEN | 37.0 | 20 | 1.1 |
| J. VAN RIEMSDYK | 30.5 | 16 | 1.1 |
| W. SIMMONDS | 38.9 | 20 | 1.0 |
| Team average | 31.3 | 16.2 | 1.0 |
| C. PRONGER | 23.7 | 12 | 1.0 |
| A. MESZAROS | 14.1 | 7 | 1.0 |
| M. READ | 24.8 | 12 | 1.0 |
| J. JAGR | 28.4 | 12 | 0.8 |
| M. CARLE | 28.6 | 9 | 0.6 |
PP TOI, powerplay time on ice; PP CF, total chances for; PP CF/2min, powerplay chances for over 2 minutes
- Last time there was a clear distinction between the first and second powerplay unit, with players from the first unit all getting more chances than the second unit. That pattern isn't shown as strongly here.
- There are no real stand-outs, with Jagr and Carle the only players below the one chance per powerplay threshold which is the team average and what I'd consider a reasonable expectation for a powerplay.
Penalty kill individual scoring chances against
| Player | SH TOI | SH CA | SH CA/2min |
| C. PRONGER | 23.02 | 5 | 0.43 |
| A. LILJA | 10.07 | 3 | 0.60 |
| C. GIROUX | 39.82 | 13 | 0.65 |
| S. COUTURIER | 32.97 | 11 | 0.67 |
| M. TALBOT | 44.83 | 15 | 0.67 |
| M. CARLE | 14.83 | 5 | 0.67 |
| A. MESZAROS | 38.22 | 13 | 0.68 |
| Team average | 31.79 | 11 | 0.69 |
| B. COBURN | 39.80 | 14 | 0.70 |
| M. READ | 29.88 | 13 | 0.87 |
| K. TIMONEN | 42.83 | 20 | 0.93 |
SH TOI, short-handed time on ice; SH CA, short-handed chances against, SH CA/2min, shorthanded chances against over 2 minutes
- Timonen and Coburn are once again on the wrong side of the team average. Behindthenet.ca has them playing weaker competition (looking at Corsi Rel QoC) but of course there are sample size issues here.
So the Flyers are still doing very well at winning the chance battle, both at even-strength and on special teams, a trend that will hopefully continue.
Once again, if anyone has any questions about these data or any ideas on how to better present it (not score effects), then I'm more than glad to hear it.
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The Flyers play an awful lot of the game with special teams, more than any other team in the league.
Read: The Flyers are more exciting to watch than any other team in the league.
On the penalty kill the Flyers get one chance for every two their opponents powerplay manages. That is nuts.And that’s just cool.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced
Really good information :)
I wonder if this could be combined someway with zone starts and corsi QoC?
Take Couturiers crazy low zone starts and its really impressive he is on the ice for more chance for then against.
There are much smarter people doing much cleverer things with the data
Here shows results from a model adjusting for zone starts
Tracking the Flyers scoring chances at Broad Street Hockey
What’s the best methodology for determining at which point the data leaves the “small sample size” area and becomes a bit more definitive/predictive?
Also, Rec’d for awesomeness.
I’m no stats expert, but the most arithmetical-proof-sounding approach I’ve seen is this one.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Well I, for one, certainly trust your opinion. Thanks.
by hebrew hammer on Dec 19, 2011 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
The 10-11 game snapshots will always be too small to be predictive, but I think is useful for reflection.
If it takes around 20 games for team Fenwick to stabilise and there are less chance events per game than Fenwick events, then I’d say it would take a lot more for team chances to stabilise. How many games that is, I’d have no idea.
Tracking the Flyers scoring chances at Broad Street Hockey
Matt Read appears to be struggling on special teams, but doing well at even strength.
Voracek and Carle are studs, though.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 19, 2011 3:23 PM EST reply actions
I had an internal bet that out of the four players we acquired in the Richards/Carter trades, the first to gain Geoff’s full favor (ala Matt Carle does not deserve your criticism favor) would be Voracek due to how well he tends to do in the advanced stats. Was I right? For the record I thought it would be Voracek, Couturier, Schenn then Simmonds.
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 19, 2011 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
For me, I was expecting it to be Schenn, then Simmonds, then Voracek simply because I liked Schenn since he was Matt Calvert’s center. Turns out, it’s Voracek, Couturier, Simmonds, Schenn due to injury and Simmonds’ struggles.
Voracek’s advanced stats were always weird to me, as he faced middle of the road competition with really high offensive zone starts, but got pushed back into the defensive zone, despite improving his CorsiRel each of his three seasons. This year, he has a higher G/60, G+A1/60, and CorsiRel than he’s ever had before while having a lower ozone start than ever. Still middle of the road competition and still getting pushed back into his defensive zone though.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 19, 2011 10:44 PM EST up reply actions
Hmm that’s interesting. I remember a while back you posted up a Driving Play article illustrating how Voracek was instrumental in driving play forward while in Columus; perhaps even moreso than Rick Nash?
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 20, 2011 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, you are remembering correctly. I was skeptical of it at the time.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 20, 2011 1:20 AM EST up reply actions

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