Comparing Claude Giroux and Sidney Crosby: Fair or not?
Sorry about the lack of recap last night, but let's be real about it. Eight of you would have read it. Anyway, here's what you need to know: the Flyers won in ridiculously convincing fashion, scoring four goals in the first period. The early lead was a nice change of pace. Ilya Bryzgalov made a bunch of saves, Danny Briere took a few stick penalties. Claude Giroux scored. The power play was good.
The Flyers are pretty good. Kind of the whole story there.
So let's pivot a little bit. There was a bit of a debate on Twitter last night and into this morning about the game coming up on Thursday night against the Pittsburgh Penguins. (Yes, we're skipping over the Buffalo game on Wednesday here, but whatever.) Unbelievably, it'll be a week into December by the time the Flyers play the Penguins for the first time on the year, but hey, that just means we get to see Sidney Crosby all six times this year. Ugh.
That's the point of this debate, though. Sam Carchidi at the Inquirer has said more than once this season that Sidney Crosby and Claude Giroux are the best two players in the game right now, and he reasserted that point again after the game last night. Yes, he says it's an arguable point, and that's totally fair.
I think it's an interesting debate, though, so let's have it. (Beware: there are complementary words written about Sidney Crosby after the jump, and if you can't stomach that, you might want to ignore the rest of this story. Or you could not be a baby and realize that despite the fact that he's a Penguin, he's an unreal hockey player.)
As much as it bugs me as a Flyers fan to list his accomplishments, let's look at Crosby's resume. It's impressive -- probably as impressive as it gets. You can skip the next two paragraphs if you'd like.
He's been the QMJHL MVP, the QMJHL Playoff MVP, QMJHL Rookie of the Year, CHL Rookie of the Year, CHL Player of the Year, the NHL's leading goal scorer, the NHL's leading scorer, NHL MVP, he's been to four NHL All-Star Games, has won gold at the IIHF World Juniors, gold at the Olympics and he has a Stanley Cup.
Crosby scored 102 points in his first NHL season, 120 in his second. He's scored more than 100 points in every full season he's played. He has 584 points in 419 games.
On the flip side, Giroux is a year younger than Crosby, and he does have some of the same accolades: QMJHL Playoff MVP, a QMJHL title, and gold at the World Juniors in 2008. He's been an NHL All-Star once, last season at the game in Carolina.
But his NHL numbers really can't be compared. Giroux didn't even start his first professional season in the NHL, playing 33 games with the Phantoms before being called up. He had just 47 points in his first full NHL season, and broke out a year ago with 76 points in 82 games.
Of course, Giroux was really just a complementary piece on those Flyers teams in his first few years. He wasn't getting first line minutes, he wasn't seeing nearly as much special teams time. He was overshadowed by Mike Richards and Jeff Carter on those teams, but that's where the comparison gets awkward for me. Until this season, Giroux wasn't even the best player on his team, let alone up there with the best players in the league.
That's all changed this year though. He's been thrust to the top of the list in terms of offensive players on this Flyers team, and he's taking all of that unbelievable talent we know he's had and has finally been able to put it to use in a leading role.
The results have been just as pretty: 32 points through 25 games leads the NHL, in a tie with Phil Kessel. His 1.28 points per game is second in the league.... to Sidney Crosby, who's only played seven games so far this year thanks to his injury.
If you compare the two players over the course of their careers to date, Giroux and Crosby don't match up at all. But if you compare them right this second, as they both pace their teams offensively, they certainly match up very well and are without a doubt two of the best players in the game. It's a fair comparison to make.
To me, though, it just feels a little dishonest. You can't ignore the track record, and really, Claude Giroux's only kept up this pace for a quarter of one season. Sidney Crosby has done it for six NHL seasons now, going on seven.
I love Claude Giroux, and he's been my favorite player to watch on this team -- and probably in the NHL, frankly -- since at least the 2010 playoffs. His skill is remarkable and I think he's going to be one of the best players in the league for a really long time. He's one of those guys you feel privileged to watch play the game, just like Crosby.
But right now, is it fair to compare the two players at all? Does Giroux still have some work to do before we compare him to the bonafide best player of his generation in Crosby?
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you can compare anybody you want
Crosby is a whole nother level. I love G, and he’s nasty, but the Crybaby is as good as it gets. and it truly pains me to say that. We’ll be able to talk more about this 2 years down the road when (hopefully) G has a Heart Trophy on his shelf.
by 62kirk on Dec 4, 2011 3:53 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Hopefully he’ll pick up a Liver Trophy and Lung Trophy as well.
Sorry, couldn’t resist.
by Phalange on Dec 4, 2011 7:02 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
More than a Hart
I can pass on the Hart if his name is engraved on teh Stanley Cup and he’s sporting a Conn Smythe.
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by Fr. Orange and Black on Dec 5, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
At this point, yes, I think it is fair to compare them. But you can’t compare their past, because Crosby has been better and gotten much more attention than G. They are both young and excellent scorers, and I look forward to the rest of the year and beyond as we see G, Crosby, Ovechkin (if he can start playing well again), and maybe some other guys compete for the best player in the league.
Awaiting the return of the G-stache
I love Giroux and he is my favorite player on the team, but he just isn’t in Crosby’s class right now. Which, by the way, is no slight to Giroux because Crosby is pretty much in a class of his own. In a few more years this may be a more lively debate but at this point I think it is difficult to compare them on even terms.
by PowerOfBauer on Dec 4, 2011 3:59 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
It’s tough to compare now, because Crosby’s probably reached his ceiling and Giroux may not have yet.
Lifelong Tennessean, Flyers' fan for life
Why do you say Crosby has probably reached his ceiling?
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 4, 2011 9:23 PM EST up reply actions
He’s already really good. He couldn’t possibly be better.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
Fair.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 4, 2011 9:57 PM EST up reply actions
Crosby had the highest PPG of his career last year.
And this year (yes, EXTREMELY small sample size), he has been even better.
Philadelphia sports fan
by PhilliePhan24 on Dec 4, 2011 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
“Sidney Crosby and Claude Giroux are the best two players in the game right now.”
…Really, the argument is that Giroux is the 2nd best player in the game right now.
I’m not sure I would put him ahead of Toews, who I (begrudgingly, after the finals last year) think is phenomenal. But he’s certainly in the top 5 just now.
Posting all the way from sunny Manchester, England.
Giroux wasn’t just a complementary piece on last year’s team, he lead them in scoring. And I’m not just being complimentary.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
And his Corsi Rel was off-the-charts amazing given his zone starts and comp.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
I have $50 to Olie's autism charity or So Kids Can and a beer on the under for 50/57/107 as AO's final stat line for 2011-'12
And on Pekka Rinne's PK SV% dropping under .920 by the end of the '12 season
by Knee high to a duck on Dec 4, 2011 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I guess I’m talking more in terms of his role/perception and all of that. When you think of the Flyers over the last few seasons, Claude Giroux isn’t the first forward you think of, whether he led the team in points or not.
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by Travis Hughes on Dec 4, 2011 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
its not really comparable because like you said crosby was drafted onto a shitty team where he immediatly was supposed to carry the workload….this is girouxs first year of carrying the workload….so do i think giroux has the ability to be just as good as crosby…yes i absolutely do because hes showing us exactly how he handles his first year as the load carrier….id say hes playing just as well as crosby did his first year of load carrying, so what happens next year? i mean this debate can also go would crosby have as many points without top 5 pick in malkin and a top 5 pick in fleury really making sure he can not have to worry as much about playing super solid defense…giroux has a 40 year old jagr and hartnell with 2 average goaltenders behind the seem to let in some soft goals on a recognizable basis…so is giroux crosby now? no..is he crosby when crosby had his first year off load carrying yes, would a malkinesque linemate and fleuryesque goalie help him? absolutely
id say hes playing just as well as crosby did his first year of load carrying, so what happens next year?
With hindsight, I’m really sad I ever thought Ovechkin would have a better career than Crosby (though it wasn’t for long). Seems to me like after 20, guys have 1 more big breakout year, and Crosby hadn’t had that at the time of the comparison.
Going back to when he was 18, you’re giving up two of Sid’s breakout years (2nd season, last season) and comparing to a guy who, at best, has one more left.
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by red army line on Dec 4, 2011 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
im only disregarding them because they are prevalent in the situation…..we cant know if this is girouxs break out year because its his first year of load carry, what happens if next year he does even better because hes more acclamated(sic) to carrying so much of the scoring? then we can compare breakout to breakout
This is an easy comparison:
Giroux is a flyer => he rules.
Crosby is a penguin => he sucks.
Therefore G > Crosby
Cake.
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by coheedandtbs on Dec 4, 2011 4:25 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Oh hey, another Coheed fan!
What’s up? Are you on Cobalt??
by captj on Dec 4, 2011 5:28 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Ah, well hop on over there, it’s a good place. I’m a mod (same username) and hopefully I’ll see you at some shows. Always love meeting the rare Coheed fan.
Yeah ill check it out. Sadly I haven’t really listened to coheed in years. I used to check out the site years and years ago but never stuck around
Proud provider of the PECO Power Play.
by coheedandtbs on Dec 5, 2011 5:34 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Coheed!
I love Coheed. 33 from 2nd stage might be my fav song…. and Giroux is and will be top 3 in the league for next 7+ years.
Cooter, Schenn, Read... Here's to scoring goals, making plays, and taking names, all before the bell rings for homeroom.
Crosby’s got him, and it’s not even close. However, if G breaks 100 pts this year, the gap shortens
I don't normally read stats, but when I do, the names Detweiller, Eric or Don are involved.
Stay educated, my friends
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Dec 4, 2011 4:32 PM EST reply actions
Crosby has a really absurd ability to drive shooting percentage when he’s on the ice, which is what separate him from the rest of the league right now. I’m not certain that I would take anyone else over Giroux at this point when not considering contracts. When considering contracts, I’d rather have Giroux, in point of fact. Crosby is the best, but he’s not worth twice as many wins as Giroux.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
I have $50 to Olie's autism charity or So Kids Can and a beer on the under for 50/57/107 as AO's final stat line for 2011-'12
And on Pekka Rinne's PK SV% dropping under .920 by the end of the '12 season
by Knee high to a duck on Dec 5, 2011 9:43 AM EST up reply actions
While Crosby’s talent is undeniable, there are a few things G has going for him. G’s cap hit is less then half of Cindy’s, while his production is much better then half of his. The team accomplishments are nice, but not really a good argument. It takes a lot more then one person to win a championship, and the whole this-player-is-better-then-that-player-because-he-has-a-ring mentality is screwed up.
Long story short, if asked to take either Crosby or Giroux without any cap considerations, I’d take Crosby. However, if asked to take either Crosby with a 8.7M cap hit or Giroux with a 3.75M cap hit, I’d take Giroux. And it’s not even close.
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by goldomatic on Dec 4, 2011 4:38 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
G’s cap hit is less then half of Cindy’s, while his production is much better then half of his.
That’s not how the comparison works. Compare the incremental cost of the additional wins each are worth.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Still, I think G is getting more bang for the buck. I’m not too knowledgeable in advanced statistics, but it would appear to me that (totally guessing) a 15% drop in additional wins is worth a 60% discount against the cap.
Babe, Bucky, Buckner, Boone, BALTIMORE!!!
Depending on how you calculate it, a win is either worth either $~1.9 million or $2.2 million.
So the real question is Crosby worth 2+ wins more per year?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
It’s been said around here (others, feel free to confirm/correct this) that 6 goals over the course of a season equals one additional win. So, using your figure, Crosby would have to be responsible for about 15 more goals. That may sound close, but it isn’t, especially considering you can add a $4M player and get more production from two players then just Crosby and a replacement-level player.
Babe, Bucky, Buckner, Boone, BALTIMORE!!!
This figure is much lower than anything I’ve seen Desjardins or others float. How did you arrive at this number?
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
I have $50 to Olie's autism charity or So Kids Can and a beer on the under for 50/57/107 as AO's final stat line for 2011-'12
And on Pekka Rinne's PK SV% dropping under .920 by the end of the '12 season
by Knee high to a duck on Dec 5, 2011 9:44 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The lower bound is the Awad method but I can’t find a link at the moment. The upper bound is Desjardins’ $/WAR in 2010-11 (I haven’t seen an updated number for 11-12 yet, but I’d guess it to be 2.4 +/- 10%)
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/10/12/2482642/how-much-do-wins-cost
There is Gabe’s valuation. 2.45 this year. I still can’t find Awad’s, sorry.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I think Crosby is clearly the best player in hockey, but given Giroux’s contract I think you could make the argument he is more valuable at this point.
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
This (and @goldmatic’s) argument. Giroux’s best stat in relation to Crosby is the $5M discount. And a complete comparison of players has to include their cap hits.
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Dec 4, 2011 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
goldomatic (sorry)
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Dec 4, 2011 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
I think Giroux is the more complete play consider his heavy use on the penalty kill compared to Crosby.
yea, that is poor coaching if you think about it. Now that the Flyer have Schenn in the lineup they might not use G as much on the kill.
hopefully anyway
by J.D_Rentschler on Dec 4, 2011 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry Travis but two things that bugged me about this article
1) Giroux’s only received league-wide attention this season, now that he’s at the top of the point scoring race. It seems that as far as this debate is concerned, no-one would argue Giroux was better than Crosby in any year before this year, so I’m not sure how relevant it is to look at all of Crosby’s accolades and compare them to the 23rd overall pick in 2006. The debate’s really about whether right now Giroux is a better player than Crosby. Even then it’s not much of a debate sadly.
2) I think this really becomes a debate when you consider cap hit. You could have Giroux + another legitimate first liner for the same cost as Crosby. Which would you take? That’s an interesting debate.
Also another sort of unrelated note on Crosby’s early season amazing play. Facing the 9th toughest competition out of forwards on the Penguins, with a shooting % of over 14% (more than double that which guys like Malkin are getting, the only other guy with a shooting % above 10% on the Penguins is Asham), a PDO of 1073. 4.97 P/60 is freakishly good in anyone’s book (even if 1.24 of that are secondary assists), but Crosby’s play thus far has been unsustainable.
Giroux’s 10.95% save % is not far from his mean from last year, and his PDO is 1005 and until recently he’d been facing the toughest competition (since overtaken by Schenn, JVR, Briere and Jagr). A2/60 only makes up a negligible proportion of his P/60 (0.17 out of 2.76). I’m seeing that as more likely to be sustainable performance.
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 4, 2011 5:54 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Sorry for Giroux that was 10.95% *shooting percentage
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 4, 2011 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
Also Crosby’s PK TOI/60 is 0.16 vs. Giroux’s 2.87. Giroux – in a cost-effectiveness discussion – has the added bonus of playing PK.
For the sake of completion:
Crosby’s played 3.98 TOI/60 on the PP, played atrocious competition (Corsi Rel QoC of -10.342; good for second easiest competition amongst all Penguins’ forwards on the PP), but managed a 4.31 P/60 including 2.16 A2/60. That’s with a 13.04% shooting % and a PDO of 1130. 43.1 SFON/60.
That said, Giroux’s played 3.77 TOI/60 on the PP, played bad competition (-3.544), got 7.00 P/60 including 2.55 A2/60. That’s with 15.29% shooting % and a PDO of 971. 45.8 SFON/60.
I’d say PP is a wash when you put that all together, but that’s just my opinion and others may think Crosby comes out better.
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 4, 2011 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
Haha sorry I was basically just pasting out what I was seeing in the stats.
So comparing Giroux and Crosby thus far into their seasons:
- Giroux has been playing far tougher competition
- Crosby has scored more points per 60 minutes of ice time
- Crosby’s been getting more points out of secondary assists
- Crosby’s been getting more ‘luck’ in terms of on-ice shooting %
- Giroux plays PK
- While on the PP, both Giroux and Crosby haven’t been facing the toughest PKers in the league, but Crosby’s faced absolutely atrocious competition so far
- Giroux’s been more efficient at producing points on the powerplay (he scores more points per 60 powerplay minutes than Crosby)
- Giroux’s had more luck on the PP
- Both of them generate roughly the same number of shots on net on the PP
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 5, 2011 12:37 AM EST up reply actions
Well, Crosby shoots at a 14% clip, personally. Usually a little above.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
That’s probably on-ice shooting%. Crosby is normally 10-11%.
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by red army line on Dec 4, 2011 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
Nah, his lowest season was 13.9%: http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8471675#&navid=nhl-keymatch
You’re probably talking ES, though, which is a good point.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
I pretty much agree with everything Travis said.
However, if we shift the question to that of skill I believe there’s no problem comparing the two. I mean Claude Giroux has made my jaw drop and my pants shorten more times than any Flyer. If you want to say Giroux and Crosby are the two most skilled players in the game, how many people still would have qualms about comparing them?
Flyers Fans: We've survived Lock-outs, Lindros and Cooperalls. If you want to get rid of us, you'll have to split an atom or two.
Datsyuk?
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 4, 2011 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
I dont see many Wings games at all. Maybe. But the one I watched yesterday I didn’t notice him at all.
Flyers Fans: We've survived Lock-outs, Lindros and Cooperalls. If you want to get rid of us, you'll have to split an atom or two.
by KreiderDesigns on Dec 4, 2011 6:12 PM EST up reply actions
I can’t believe it took this long for someone to mention Datsyuk.
The guy takes on the toughest minutes on his team and is still the possession leader and among the points leaders.
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by Eric T. on Dec 4, 2011 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
I like a comparison of Datsyuk to Giroux. Maybe not by the numbers test, but at least by the eye test—top centers, excellent scorers, very defensively sound. And maybe it’s just my own bias but I feel like I see both of them just doing some absolutely filthy shit with the puck whenever I’m watching them.
I root for the All-Hype Team.
by everybodyhitswoohoo on Dec 4, 2011 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
ah yes. What a player. He and Crosby are the two opponents i’d pay most to see. In some ways Datsyuk is more interesting because whereas Crosby does things better than anyone else Datsyuk often does things that you don’t think can be done at all. And he’s a marvel to watch in the defensive zone.
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Dec 4, 2011 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
I think it’s incredibly unfair to try to make this comparison right now.
Yeah, Giroux is on a phenomenal scoring pace, but it’s driven by a 20% shooting percentage (his career rate is 14.2%) and his teammates shooting 11% when he’s on the ice at 5 on 5 (regresses to about 8% on the long run, averaged about that the last two years).
If he and his teammates were shooting at the historic averages, he’d have 23 points through 25 games, which is about the same as what he did last year when nobody argued he was on Crosby’s level. So the only reason to make that argument now is if you believe he’s suddenly become a guy who will shoot at 20% (which nobody does in the long run) or make his teammates shoot at 11% (which NOBODY does).
I don’t see it.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
by Eric T. on Dec 4, 2011 6:25 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
What if you take the cap hit into account? Acknowledging that Giroux’s numbers are spiking right now, if you’re building a team for, say, the next couple of years, and you can have Crosby at 8.7M or Giroux at 3.75M would it be an easy choice for you?
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Dec 4, 2011 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, Giroux gets a big boost if we’re ranking the best values in the league instead of the best players.
Detweiler picked him as the first guy he’d take last year, for that reason, and everyone laughed at him.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
I love how we trolled the poll in that article haha.
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 4, 2011 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
But seriously I love how Giroux has progressed because from the start it’s always seemed like Flyers fans vs. the rest of the world with him. First we were arguing that he’d be a legitimate NHLer, then we were arguing against those that laughed off the Foppa comparison, then we were arguing that he was going to be a legit 1st liner center, then Geoff was arguing that he’d build his team around Giroux in the League of Extraordinary Statisticians, and all of a sudden we’re arguing whether he’s more cost-effective than Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin. And ’Roux has never let us down in any of these arguments so far.
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 4, 2011 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
Just to point out, I admitted they had good reason to laugh. But then backed it up some more.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 4, 2011 9:33 PM EST up reply actions
Visionaries are often ridiculed. The true visionary is ridiculed even by himself.
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Dec 4, 2011 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
Seriously!? Calling Geoff a visionary? Like we need that!? C"MON! MAN!
Flyers Fans: We've survived Lock-outs, Lindros and Cooperalls. If you want to get rid of us, you'll have to split an atom or two.
by KreiderDesigns on Dec 4, 2011 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
please refer to my tagline.
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Dec 4, 2011 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
Crosby’s on ice 5 on 5 shooting % is 14% (as I mentioned above, which is more than double what most other Penguins are getting). Considering he’s got 2 goals and 10 assists which has given him the famed 12 points in 7 games; I’d say that’s something to consider too.
But yep otherwise agreed that it looks like Giroux will – in all likelihood – slow down as time goes on. So far he’s done a good job with that shooting percentage though, considering we were talking about unsustainable shooting percentages in relation to Giroux as early as before game 10 even.
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 4, 2011 7:07 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, actually, perhaps I need to take it back a little.
Crosby has consistently gotten 11% on-ice shooting numbers. Some of that is because he’s personally shot over 15%, but Giroux isn’t so far behind that either. So I guess it’s possible, and while Giroux hasn’t done it consistently, his on-ice shooting has gone up each year…
I’ve never really looked at the extent to which an individual can drive teammate shooting percentages. Maybe it’s possible for a player of Crosby’s caliber to cause his team to shoot 11% when he’s on the ice, and maybe Giroux’s approaching that level.
I’m still not going to assume that after 25 games, since dozens of players are at that level right now and most of them won’t sustain it, but perhaps it’s not impossible.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
make his teammates shoot at 11% (which NOBODY does).
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by red army line on Dec 4, 2011 10:51 PM EST up reply actions
Shoulda z’d.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Dec 4, 2011 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
/grin
I’m pretty curious now about how much of a skill this is. Unfortunately, the publicly tabulated numbers don’t make it real easy to tell — how much of a guy’s high on-ice shooting is because he himself scored a lot, how much is because he played with good shooters, and how much is because he helped set his linemates up?
Basically, I’d want to look at whether year after year players shoot better in their minutes with Crosby than in their minutes without, and whether that’s true of other guys as well, and whether it’s above the noise. Sounds interesting, but time-consuming.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Heh, me too.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
I have $50 to Olie's autism charity or So Kids Can and a beer on the under for 50/57/107 as AO's final stat line for 2011-'12
And on Pekka Rinne's PK SV% dropping under .920 by the end of the '12 season
by Knee high to a duck on Dec 5, 2011 9:53 AM EST up reply actions
I think you can make a pretty good argument that Crosby does:
On-Ice s%
2007: 12.17
2008: 11.02
2009: 11.54
2010: 12.74
I’m not sure what the numbers look like if you back out Crosby’s personal shooting percentage (I’m sure they fall), but if anyone the league can do it, Crosby can.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
I have $50 to Olie's autism charity or So Kids Can and a beer on the under for 50/57/107 as AO's final stat line for 2011-'12
And on Pekka Rinne's PK SV% dropping under .920 by the end of the '12 season
by Knee high to a duck on Dec 5, 2011 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
Driving Play looked at this a little and showed that the Penguins shoot 10.9% with Crosby on the ice, 7.7% with him off. The Canucks shoot 10.4% with Henrik on, 7.6% with him off.
But how much of that is due to their shooting and how much is due to their passing/presence? I don’t know.
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 5, 2011 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
Interesting that there’s such a disparity in the data between what Gabe’s pulled and what timeonice reports – 10.9% is lower than any single season in which BtN has data available.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
I have $50 to Olie's autism charity or So Kids Can and a beer on the under for 50/57/107 as AO's final stat line for 2011-'12
And on Pekka Rinne's PK SV% dropping under .920 by the end of the '12 season
by Knee high to a duck on Dec 5, 2011 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
Crosby, I’m really happy for you,Imma letchu finish, but my boy Claude is one of tha best playas of all time.
Following Dan Carcillo where ever he may go
Read, Rinaldo and Sestito Flyercrushes until his return
by Cillo stache on Dec 4, 2011 7:17 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Haha. Well done. Rec’d.
I <3 our rookies.
by LeepinLizardz on Dec 4, 2011 8:45 PM EST up reply actions
The thing about Crosby is that, yes, he’s a very good player, but would he be such a standout player if he hadn’t gotten superstar treatment from day 0, if Gary Bettman weren’t already engraving his name on the Stanley Cup before he got drafted. The diving and the favoritism taint everything he does, and the one time he played outside of NHL control, in the Olympics, he was a useless dead weight on the Canadian team, easily their worst offensive player and the biggest defensive liability on the team.
Flyers, Phillies, Union, Eagles, Phantoms, Wings.
but would he be such a standout player if he hadn’t gotten superstar treatment from day 0, if Gary Bettman weren’t already engraving his name on the Stanley Cup before he got drafted.
C’non Mannnnnnn!
You think entering the league at 18 with massive expectations to a terrible team makes it EASIER?
The diving and the favoritism taint everything he does, and the one time he played outside of NHL control, in the Olympics, he was a useless dead weight on the Canadian team, easily their worst offensive player and the biggest defensive liability on the team.
I seem to remember him scoring a moderately important goal for them.
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
I remember him being in the right place at the right time when Jarome Iginla dropped a giftwrapped pass right on his tape.
I’m not saying he’d be a scrub without the favoritism. Clearly the bitch has talent. The problem is that D learned right quick not to lay a finger on Gary Bettman’s chosen one. Without the room that gets him, would he be able to get all those wide open one-timers and lucky rebounds?
Flyers, Phillies, Union, Eagles, Phantoms, Wings.
so the concussion thing, that came from someone’s finger? the middle one, i guess.
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Dec 4, 2011 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
so you’re also with the idea that there is an edict from Bettman to not make contact with Crosby? You know if that were true he’d probably have double his point total.
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Dec 4, 2011 9:37 PM EST up reply actions
nah im not with that crazy edict….but i do think he gave himself a concussion because he cant get out of the way of a guy looking the other way….that and you know the next guy who gives him a concussion will probably get the biggest suspension ever
I’m not saying he’d be a scrub without the favoritism. Clearly the bitch has talent. The problem is that D learned right quick not to lay a finger on Gary Bettman’s chosen one. Without the room that gets him, would he be able to get all those wide open one-timers and lucky rebounds?
Now did you buy a new tin-foil hat or a pre-owned one? Perhaps you made it yourself?
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
by Ed Van Chimp on Dec 4, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
You think entering the league at 18 with massive expectations to a terrible team makes it EASIER?
What expectation hasn’t he met, really? He’s not putting up numbers like Gretzky but I think coming out of the lockout we expected scoring to be higher.
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by red army line on Dec 4, 2011 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
I seem to remember him scoring a moderately important goal for them.
I really really cannot stand the Olympic revisionism that’s gone on. Prior to the final, Crosby did not play well all Olympics. The ‘golden goal’ was a great play by Jarome Iginla. You could’ve put Jody Shelley out there to pop that pass in (hyperbole, but you get the point). The thing is that Crosby scoring that goal has meant that he became the poster child of Canada’s successful Olympic campaign, when there were quite a few players who outperformed him on that stage.
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 5, 2011 12:41 AM EST up reply actions
Well, Crosby was the third leading scorer on his team of superstars and seventh overall in the tournament. He wasn’t a bum, he just wasn’t clearly the best player. This was a problem of sample size and the difficulty of standing out when the talent differential isn’t as great between you and your teammates.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
6 points in 7 games:
1 primary assist and 2 secondary assists in an 8-0 win over Norway, a +2
Nothing in a 3-2 SO win over Switzerland, even in +/-
1 goal in a 3-5 loss to the USA, a 3
1 goal in an 8-2 win over Germany, a +2
Nothing in a 7-3 win over Russia, even in +/
Nothing in a 3-2 win over Slovakia in the semi-finals, even in +/-
That goal in a 3-2 OT win over the USA in the finals, a +1
To recap: 6 points in 7 games, out of which 4 points came in blowouts over minnows. A failure to produce against Russia and Slovakia in the quarters and semis, and had it not been for some great work by Iginla, he would’ve had nothing to show for in the final as well. In the key game of the group stages against the USA, he was a -3.
Crosby did not play well during the Olympics – and if someone were to pull out advanced stats I’m pretty sure guys like Toews and Richie were getting the tough minutes so that’s not an excuse. So I repeat that there has been a lot of revisionism that has gone on since he scored the ‘golden goal’.
(and before you catch me out on how he had 7 points in 7 games, not 6 points like I said, the stats taken at the Olympics counted a game winning shootout goal against Switzerland [on Crosby’s second attempt having missed the first shot] as a goal credited to Crosby. Which is bullshit)
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 5, 2011 3:26 AM EST up reply actions
Ugh that wasn't meant to strike through
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 5, 2011 3:27 AM EST up reply actions
And this even on an article that is fawning all over him
VANCOUVER — People aren’t likely to remember, years from now, that Sidney Crosby had a disappointing Olympics and an underwhelming gold-medal game.
All they’ll remember is that he scored the winning goal to clinch Canada’s 14th gold medal and set a Winter Games record.
…
"It was a great little pass down low," explained Crosby. "I just threw it at the net. I didn’t aim it. I just shot it. I didn’t see it go in. I just heard everybody screaming."
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 5, 2011 3:49 AM EST up reply actions
Not to be a dick – I didn’t watch the Olympics, so I can neither say you are right or wrong – but points and plus/minus and one columnist at Canoe isn’t going to convince me, just like “he scored the gold medal winning goal” won’t convince me.
Is it a case of people expecting him to score 8 goals in seven games, all of them game winners?
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 5, 2011 9:11 AM EST up reply actions
I did watch the Olympics. He wasn’t all that impressive playing on a line with Eric Staal and Rick Nash, and didn’t look all that great playing next to Jarome Iginla, either.
Toews was (rightfully, I think) named the best forward of that tournament. Now, it’s a ludicrously small sample, but seriously, he wasn’t very good.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
I have $50 to Olie's autism charity or So Kids Can and a beer on the under for 50/57/107 as AO's final stat line for 2011-'12
And on Pekka Rinne's PK SV% dropping under .920 by the end of the '12 season
by Knee high to a duck on Dec 5, 2011 9:57 AM EST up reply actions
If only we had Corsi numbers :)
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 5, 2011 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
I wish.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
I have $50 to Olie's autism charity or So Kids Can and a beer on the under for 50/57/107 as AO's final stat line for 2011-'12
And on Pekka Rinne's PK SV% dropping under .920 by the end of the '12 season
by Knee high to a duck on Dec 5, 2011 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
What would convince you then?
I’m trying to say that he played poorly until overtime of that gold medal game. I assume the eye test wouldn’t be enough for you, so I gave whatever stats were present.
In the 5 games (that weren’t against Germany or Norway) prior to that overtime period in the gold medal game, he had 1 goal and 0 assists; playing with the likes of Rick Nash, Eric Staal and Jarome Iginla and including a blowout win over Russia and a game against Switzerland. Nash and Iginla had stellar Olympic campaigns, so you can’t blame the struggles of his linemats.
And small sample size isn’t relevant here – because I’m trying to say he played poorly in that small sample and I’m not trying to extrapolate it out further. Not saying he’s a bad player because he struggled in the Olympics. I’m saying that he struggled in the Olympics and history will forget it because of his ‘golden goal’.
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 5, 2011 7:14 PM EST up reply actions
I think small sample size is still perfectly fair. A player can play extremely well over a 5-game span and not score.
Moreover, I think “aside from the two games where he scored a lot, he only had 1 goal and 0 assists” is a bit arbitrary. None of Nash, Staal, or Iginla had more than one goal or one assist in the five games you’ve narrowed it down to, for what it’s worth.
If your eyes told you he played poorly, that’s fine. But the stats don’t seem terribly compelling one way or the other here.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
OK I accept your point of view there, particularly re: the small sample size. Only comment I have to make in addition to that is regarding this:
Moreover, I think "aside from the two games where he scored a lot, he only had 1 goal and 0 assists" is a bit arbitrary
It’s a consideration you have to make in a lot of international sports. I follow cricket (yes, one of the rare few) which is primarily international and it’s a common part of any statistical analysis to remove games against minnow teams which some players can use to pad their stats.
And it’s not like he scored a lot in those two games. 1 primary assist and 2 secondary assists in an 8-0 drubbing of Norway and one goal in an 8-2 drubbing of Germany isn’t making me go crazy in awe either.
But otherwise yep I was just trying to qualify my eyes with some numbers. I watched all of Canada’s games in the Olympics and wasn’t impressed with Crosby.
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 5, 2011 7:40 PM EST up reply actions
But his teammates had the same opportunities against those minnows! I don’t understand.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
Sure I’d be happy to discount all goals in a game against Norway, but I doubt anyone can be bothered working through the Olympic stats and deleting the minnow games.
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 5, 2011 8:13 PM EST up reply actions
And in relation to the general principle of deleting minnows from stats. I’m not sure how much you know about cricket but, generally, a guy scoring 200 against a minnow team like Bangladesh or Zimbabwe can often be considered less of an achievement than scoring a hard fought 100 against South Africa in South Africa or India in India. So in comparing players you filter out all games against minnows so you’re left with actual meaningful statistics.
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 5, 2011 8:16 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t know which team you follow most closely in cricket, but it’s certainly not done in New Zealand like that. That’s potentially because we’re close enough to a minnow as is but I’ve never seen records against minnows removed. I know a top score of 200 against a minnow can be seen as a lesser accomplishment as to say 150 vs. Australia, but I don’t know that it would be discounted from a players average
Tracking the Flyers scoring chances at Broad Street Hockey
Yeah well they obviously wouldn’t do it like that in broadcasting or mainstream media. I’m not sure how closely you follow cricket but on many of the statistical analyses on cricinfo.com (for the unitiated, cricinfo.com is the best website for everything cricket), particularly when you’re running a comparison of say Brian Lara and Sachin Tendulkar or Shane Warne and Muttiah Muralitharan, they’d give you stats excluding games from Zimbabwe and Bangladesh. And considering how often people crop up the argument that ‘[insert player here] is only good because they got runs/wickets against Zimbabwe/Bangladesh’, stats that exclude minnows are pretty commonly referred to in cricket stat arguments.
And not to be harsh, but it’s probably less relevant to New Zealand who haven’t been too consistent in beating the likes of Bangladesh. And after being run through by James Pattinson the other day…
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Dec 5, 2011 8:28 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmm, I don’t often read Cricinfo because they neglect New Zealand and we have decent coverage here. I know I have personally tried to do what you’re saying above but haven’t managed to (to compare Vettori’s captaincy to Flemings).
Yeah, the media even tricked us into thinking we had a chance at that game too.
Tracking the Flyers scoring chances at Broad Street Hockey
What would convince me? Nothing, since I didn’t watch and I can’t look at the stats I want to use to corroborate what I saw. Which is why I said I don’t know if you’re right or wrong.
I was wondering if it was a matter of expectations, since I am in no position to question the accuracy of your opinion, but rather to point out the difficulty in proving it.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 5, 2011 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
Every other players on that team had the opportunity to score the points (except for the shootout one). There’s a reason the points total were spread out pretty evenly on that team.
And, again, it’s seven games. I think we saw the same things: he don’t think he look that impressive, other people were getting the tougher minutes. However, he must have been effective in some way, because he still got results.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
My memory is that his greatest value during the bulk of the tournament was in drawing more attention from the other teams even though he wasn’t playing at his best. When he had the puck the other teams seemed to be focused more on him than the rest of the ice (more than with other players) even when he wasn’t creating the results we’ve come to expect from him. I don’t know how many extra scoring opportunities his icemates got as a result. And this is all from memory.
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Dec 5, 2011 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Did you just call Crosby a taint?
I <3 our rookies.
by LeepinLizardz on Dec 4, 2011 8:46 PM EST up reply actions
Crosby’s the better player, but—and not that it really matters to anyone outside of the female base—G is way hotter. I mean, Crosby’s face looks like a duck’s ass.
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
That duck’s ass can play some hockey for realz, though.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
True dat, but he’d be a straight up nerd who can’t get laid without the mad hockey skillz, yo.
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
I’ve never met the man and have never seen him interact with women, so I am neither in a position to confirm or disconfirm your statement.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
Eh, maybe I’m just really picky.
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
That’s not a bad thing. If I were a woman I wouldn’t be attracted to him either.
If I were a woman I probably wouldn’t be attracted to most professional athletes, assuming I was the same in every other way aside from gender.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
Let’s not go offending waterfowl here, ok? I’ve known ducks to grow more honest mustaches.
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Dec 4, 2011 9:43 PM EST up reply actions
Claude vs. Crosby
I see Claude Giroux as turning into a player like Bob Clarke – excellent on both sides of the puck, high scoring totals, best all-around player on his team, one of the best in the league, and used in all situations, but not consistently among the league leaders in scoring or anything like that.
Assuming he stays healthy, I see Crosby being mentioned among the best of the best – Lemieux, Gretzky, Orr, Richard, Hull, Howe, and Mikita.
I think Giroux is probably more well-rounded than Crosby, but Crosby’s skill and vision are unparalleled in today’s game. It’s not a fair comparison at all.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
Giroux vs. Ovechkin
I think Crosby is clearly better than Giroux but as good as Crosby is that’s no slight to Giroux. To me a more interesting comparison is Giroux vs. Ovechkin. Let’s say Hypothetically the Flyers had the cap hit to accommodate Ovechkin and the caps offered Ovechkin for Giroux straight up. Two years ago Ovechkin for anyone would be considered an absolute steal. Now, given what Ovechkin has been been through lately and what Claude has done I would not make that trade. I think Giroux is the better all around player and then when you factor in the cap hit it’s not even close.
To me it’s just interesting to think about what Ovechkin’s trade value would be at this point. Two years ago Ovechkin was hands down onw of the two best players in hockey. Now, it’s hard to make that case.
It’s also interesting to think about what, as the Flyers, you would consider trading Giroux for, to me it would take a ton to pry him away.
No way they trade G, it’s his team now. Only thing I can think of is a top-10 player now and a TON of 1st rounders, as in at least 3.
Babe, Bucky, Buckner, Boone, BALTIMORE!!!
I don't think they trade him
I just like thinking of players in terms of potential trade value and thinking of what a trade might be
If you recall, the Penguins trade Crosby to the Flyers for Jagr and Giroux sometime this month.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 4, 2011 11:00 PM EST reply actions
How did the Flyers have the Art Ross Winner and the Vezina winner and not make the Finals?
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
Craps is a wicked game.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Dec 4, 2011 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
If you read the comments, it shows that Crosby got injured in the second round, but still won it. They were swept by the Caps in the conference finals.
Did they eliminate goaltending in that league? 330 points by the Sedin Twins? Crosby north of 100 goals?!?! What in the name of DiPietro is going on here?
Babe, Bucky, Buckner, Boone, BALTIMORE!!!
One category Giroux beats Crosby hands down...
Giroux grows a man’s mustache; Cindy not even close. I’ve seen Italian girls grow a better mustache than Crosby.
It's definitely not a fair comparison.
It’s pretty hard to make a case he is the #2 player in this league.
I mean, he’s good and all, but he might not even be top 10 if we look through the lens of reality…
.313/.400/.565

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