Wednesday Morning Fly By: Offensive Dynamo Time?
Today's open discussion thread, complete with your daily dose of Philadelphia Flyers news and notes...
- Recaps of last night's game: [BSH] [Philly Sports Daily] [CSNPhilly] [delcotimes.com] [Flyers Faithful] [Flyer Files] [Inquirer] [Daily News]
- The Union's supporters - The Sons of Ben - came to the game last night: [Brotherly Game]
- Some interesting notes on Shelley - 60 stitches - and Zherdev, in case Shelley can't play: [In the Room]
- Joonas Lehtivuori assisted on the game-winning goal while logging a team-high 21:41 [euroflyers]
- Upon his first home game as a Flyer, Kris Versteeg got some love: [Philly Sports Daily] [NHL.com]
- Arguing that the Blues won their trade with Colorado: [Hockey Prospectus]
- The Capitals have given up 15 goals fewer than expected this year. But they've scored 30 fewer than expected. Fascinating look at misconceptions still surrounding this team: [Japers' Rink]
- NHL Power Rankings for Week 21: Where New Jersey thinks they can make the playoffs: [SBNation.com]
- Looking at concepts that became the Buffaslug. Including one that actually isn't bad: [icethetics]
- The League of Extraordinary Statisticians answer what the value of a top-10 draft pick is worth: [Behind The Net]
- A look at Don Cherry's contract with Hockey Night in Canada: [Down Goes Brown]
- On coaches and goalies: "It's an interesting effect - 15 good games get you another 45 games to prove that you're not good." [Behind the Net]
- A fantastic plea for sanity at the NHL Trade Deadline: Stop repeating every single rumor. [The Copper & Blue]
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I’m still mad about the Upshall hit on Bartulis. Scottie claims he didn’t hear the whistle. Yeah, right. Even if he didn’t actually hear it, the fact that no one else is moving anymore should have tipped him off. Oskars was having a decent game, and after wasting away in the press box for most of the season, he finally gets to suit up and now this…
Sarauj, Latvija!
Don't know if this will calm you down a bit or not....
—>TB. watched the highlights of our game. my hit on Bartulis was without a doubt late, but i had absolutely no intention of injuring him.I hope his MRI tomorrow is a positive one…
The Flyers are the deepest team in the NHL, the Phillies have four aces. Man is it great to be a Philly sports fan right now.
We hear that all the time; “I didn’t mean to hurt him”. Was Upshall’s hit malicious?, perhaps not, but given the play was dead, it certainly was reckless.
Sarauj, Latvija!
by LVHokejs on Feb 23, 2011 8:52 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
TravisHair
Scottie Upshall Suspended Two Games for Hit on Oskars Bartulis #Coyotes #Flyers http://sbn.to/hsiawD
by Prometheus74 on Feb 23, 2011 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t know, I love the Wolf as much as anyone but you and Ben and I think he was just going hard. I think we’d be defending him if he was on our team and did it. It was most definitely unfortunate but I have a hard time believing it was malicious.
Flyers Fans: We've survived Lock-outs, Lindros and Cooperalls. If you want to get rid of us, you'll have to split an atom or two.
by KreiderDesigns on Feb 23, 2011 7:51 AM EST up reply actions
I only really got to see it live and a small replay or two as I was getting back to my seat, but I would agree we would be defending Upshall if the roles were reversed. Hell I don’t even think that should have been a boarding call (roughing at worst) and I’m not even sure if there is a penalty called if there wasn’t an injury.
And this is the problem. Was the hit late? Yes. Penalty? Yes. Why are there all these rules when it all falls down to “No Blood no foul or suspension”? I’m sure it wasn’t malicious, but still, wasn’t the league trying to stop this sort of thing?
Sorry to go off on a tangent here, and it’s nothing personal. This kinda thing is starting to bother me with the league.
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
I’m not sure what angel you are tangentially going on at … Are you upset that injuries are dictating calls (i.e. a normally clean hit that swings to the penalty side because the guy couldn’t hold his balance and hit is head … not saying that happened here) or that I question if it was a penalty or not without the injury or other?
And on that note: Would it have been a penalty? If there had just been some pushing and Bartulis just fell down to the ice. You’d have a lot of fans up in arms and you’d get more push that usual, but would there have been a call? I’d think maybe and only if the refs though the game was starting to get out of hand … which is wasn’t.
Like I said I honestly didn’t get a good look at it. I looked away for a second as I was getting to my seat to see Bartulis down and just assumed it was a 5 minute boarding call coming up, but after the one replay I got to see I quickly ruled that out.
Let me clarify then. Too may calls and suspensions are based on damage done rather than the actual act that. If a hit is illegal, it’s illegal. It should not depend on whether there is blood drawn or the guy is unconscious. I don;t want to pull a Dennis Miller here, mostly due to time.
But my response was not truly directed to you, as much as some of the thought in the league that allows this stuff to happen.
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
by Mike B on D on Feb 23, 2011 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
A thought just poccurred to me...
Let me make an analogy here… The way the NHL is handling is similar to MLB a few years ago. With steroids so obviously rampant in their league they stated they wanted to put an end to it. Yet did not institute drug testing until years later. They have the tools and ability to stop it but do not use them.
the NHL is similar. If they consistently used the rules in place and fined anyone for these dangerous hits, the hits would go away. Instead they wait for injuries to hand out suspensions. If this is enforced properly, there are no injuries.
I should probably organize my thoughts and make a fanpost/rant for this, but my time is tight lately.
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
by Mike B on D on Feb 23, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with you on the aftermath dictates penalty. I hate it myself. Someone is trying to lift someones stick and the hit the other guy on the chin shouldn’t be 4 minutes because they got cut like wise someone who gets their stick up and basically cross checks someone in the chin shouldn’t only get 2 minutes because there was no blood. I have always hated that and always will. The recklessness of the crime should dictate the penalty.
However I don’t know if I’m on board with you about the dangerous hits. I mean it would help, but cutting down on dangerous hits is much easier: Allow clutching and grabbing again. When they opened the game up the create more speed, people are bigger … more speed + more mass = more force = more injuries. Physics 101. Slow the game down and there will be a lot less catastrophic injuries.
*facepalm I would probably have to stop watching hockey if they let players do what they used to do.
G, the second coming of Foppa.
by JerseyDriver on Feb 23, 2011 7:45 PM EST up reply actions
Just for the record, as far as I am concerned it was a late hit, but the whistle doesn’t sound till after the hit
G, the second coming of Foppa.
by JerseyDriver on Feb 23, 2011 7:43 PM EST up reply actions
I’m really suprised Pronger did not release his full spectrum of anger on the guy who checked him into the bench and kept agitating him. Usually Pronger just snaps and makes that poor sap’s life miserable, case in point Skinner
Laperriere is my hero
Carcillo's my lover
Bobrovsky's my savior
Hockeys my life
I think there is something wrong with him; he seems a step or two below where he normally is. Is his foot even totally healed yet? Maybe giving him some extra time off since you have a few extra players down on the farm and the Flyers have a extremely good odds to have home ice still would be a good thing.
From the Japers article:
“Capitals owner Ted Leonsis is absolutely right when he says the power play is holding the team back from winning more games.”
I wonder if Geoff or someone else has done a similar analysis of the Flyers and whether or not the same/ similar conclusion can be drawn regarding our own power play. I can’t recall a post regarding actual goals vs. expected goals from anyone, at least not this year yet.
And if Don Cherry does a “Coach’s Corner” segment, why doesn’t Mike Milbury do a “If the Shoe Fits” segment?
I’d have to look, but I think the Flyers are performing beyond expectations at 5 on 5, which I’m assuming would erase, and possibly eclipse, anything lost on the PP. If I have time today, I’ll grab numbers. If not, Huck will probably grab them first either way.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Is this the right room for an argument?
This is from Todd last night in response to me asking how the Flyers were doing 5 on 5
They have a 1.31 5v5 ratio, which is right around the average for the season I believe.
So to that end, if the expectation for them was to be below league average, I would say you are correct, however I am going to figure that the expectations were to be above average on 5 on 5? Just based on their talent level they certainly should perform above average on 5 on 5. Especially when you have so much depth that you can scratch guys like Z in favor or Shelley/Carcillo.
BOILER UP!! 2010-2011
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Hmm, I know they are getting better than expected goaltending, and I thought their shooting % was a little higher than expected. Huck just posted a write up here (thanks for saving me some work) that they have score 8 more goals than expected, and stoped 14 more goals than expected. I’m assuming this is at 5 on 5, I know the saves are at least. So that’s a +22 at 5 on 5 than expected. Link here.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Is this the right room for an argument?
Haha, I read it immediately after tell mtitanic brought it up, and thought it was wonderful timing.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Is this the right room for an argument?
ignore the tell in that sentence…me talk good.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Is this the right room for an argument?
Must talk English more goodly.
Kudos to Huck for anticipating, at least in part, the question. But I don’t think this addresses my concern, namely our PP performance expectations. In reading through game threads one gets the impression the PP is not performing well. After reading Japers I wondered if we similarly have left 2 or 3 wins on the table.
Thanks for everyone’s input.
Well out power play might be failing the Flyers, but in the Japer’s article, even though they have stopped more goals, they haven’t scored nearly as much as expected, so they looked at to where that was coming from, and a lot of it came from the PP.
The Flyers have gained roughly 3 points from over achieving from scoring 5 on 5. They have gained roughly 5 points from over achieving in net. So they are roughly 8 points ahead of where they could be from over performing expectation at 5 on 5. For the PP to have actually have a net negative impact on the team’s point, it would have had to cost you 8 points, or 4 wins, or about 24 goals.
The Caps have stopped an addition 15 goals than expected this year, but have scored almost 17 less goal than expected on the PP (and 12 less at ES).
So maybe the Flyers could be a few points higher in the standings, but their (over) performance at 5 on 5 hockey has more than compensated. So while you could just as easily say they have been lucky at 5 on 5, as you could as unlucky (or bad) on the PP. I’m wagering that the performance at 5 on 5 for outweighs the goal differential of expected from actual on the PP.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Is this the right room for an argument?
When he said 1.31 is around the average, he means for the Flyers. Not league average. League average is much closer to 1.00.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 23, 2011 9:10 AM EST up reply actions
I’d be happy if we never saw or heard from him again. There are better analysts in most bars than him.
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
by Mike B on D on Feb 23, 2011 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
A league average PP% would give the Flyers an extra goal every 100 opportunities, which seems fairly insignificant. A PP equivalent to the Canucks would be an extra 8 goals every 100 opportunities, which could be 3-4 wins over the course of the season.
The way this team has been playing at 5v5 means that an inept PP probably hasn’t cost them many games. It will become a problem if the luck stops going the Flyers way at even-strength.
Mourning Gagne forever.
In an effort to silence the chorus of critics who constantly demand that he be fired, each Cherry appearance will now be preceded by a brief reminder that he’s just going to end up being replaced by Mike Milbury.
Wow, this makes Cherry irreplaceable.
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
I’m really enjoying these jersey/logo concept articles on icethetics. (Except for the atrocious orange/teal Flyers concept jersey he posted. Blech!) The two buffaslug concepts with the crossed sabres behind the logo actually look pretty nice, especially the one with the shield. But the graphic of the three Buffalo wordmark concepts keeps making me laugh because of this.
Also, I like the Lightning logo at the very end of the article with Zeus (presumably) holding the lightning bolt and the Greek scrollwork around the edges. There was a pencil sketch along those lines in the TB concepts he posted a couple weeks ago, but he didn’t show the full color logo. That’s really nice. Pretty badass, too.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
I actually like the same Sabres logo you did. That’s the one I was referring to.
But I hate the Zeus images. Too far away from what the team used to be.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 23, 2011 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
I see your point about the Zeus logo being too far removed from the overall concept of the Tampa Bay Lightning. But completely removed from the team, judging the logo by itself, I think it looks pretty awesome. Like if a new/relocated team needed a name and a logo, that’d be a great choice. Not sure what name you could attach to it though…“Olympians” would be cool if it wasn’t for that big, quadrennial sporting event that already has dibs on it.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
haha, agreed.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 23, 2011 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
I believe BSH should have a contest for the most outrageous user-generated trade rumor. Winner gets to rename him/herself Eklund and gets their own blog — tentatively-named the Bleacher Report.
Lifelong Tennessean, Flyers' fan for life
Yes, but the users can’t be aware of the contest. Otherwise they’ll start naming really insane things just in an attempt to win. The crazy ideas need to be organic.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
I still like my Carter to the Wild for Guillaume Latendresse and Josh Harding … then again I can’t make a trade to save my life in NHL11 ( ._.)
Just write another article, but to keep people on their toes, you should try something that is not coherent, contains a highly fragmented thought process, and confuses everyone involved.
Or you could grab the PP numbers actual versus expected.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Is this the right room for an argument?
To be honest, I was really curious about how Japers’ did that article. So I asked Gabe, and he was… less than clear. But the shot distance data is available on his site for individuals, I just don’t know when I’ll be able to do anything with it.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 23, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
This is why I like Huck, everything is extremely clear. Granted Huck’s have been things I’ve understood already going in, where the stuff that I have concerns/questions with on what Gabe does are things I never quite grasped going in to the article.
Huck is the anti-Gabe for explanations.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Is this the right room for an argument?
haha, truth.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 23, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
My last couple of posts stemmed from a comment by LeepinLizardz that she gets lost when there’s a big paragraph of numbers because she’s more of a visual learner. It hit me that there are almost certainly hundreds of readers who don’t follow the traditional number-oriented approach to using the stats and don’t want to be the one person to raise their hand and say “I don’t get it.”
Getting a larger group of people following and contributing to the discussion will always be a good thing. And in particular, bringing in a group of people whose natural thinking and learning style is different should keep things more diverse and interesting. So that’s what I’m after.
So…to those hundreds of you…this is your chance. Let me know if there’s something you’d like to hear explained differently. Speak up when you don’t understand — think of it as a service to the large, silent majority.
Most definitely. You have done an excellent job of taking what the advanced stats community considers common knowledge for the most part, and explained it in a very clear way, along with visuals, so the rest of the community can better understand some of the bases for our assumptions that we often make without ever explaining ourselves.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Is this the right room for an argument?
I enjoy the advanced stats, but don’t always have the time to put into them to properly review things. A 2 year old and getting ready to move eats time worse than work. A visual presentation of data helps me (personally) grasp things quicker to know what catches my eye so I can delve into the numbers deeper. I’m sure I’m not alone.
So thank you for the work you’ve done!
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
by Mike B on D on Feb 23, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
You forgot based only on perception and feelings.
Flyers Fans: We've survived Lock-outs, Lindros and Cooperalls. If you want to get rid of us, you'll have to split an atom or two.
by KreiderDesigns on Feb 23, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
Good call.
I seriously think it would be hilarious, for him to write one that goes against everything he believes in, and see how many people comment and agree.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Is this the right room for an argument?
It would be funny, but think of the hit to my credibility! You’d never trust anything I wrote again.
Oh, that reminds me…
The shooting percentage numbers I used are for all situations. So the power play weakness is built into that.
The goalie numbers are even strength only because I had no idea how to come up with an expected PK save percentage for Bob.
Ah ok, I didn’t really bother to check, but since we usually keep things at 5 on 5, I assumed you did. Any chance you have it so we could break it out.
For PK save %, I thought maybe you could just use league average, I feel like that’s pretty fair to every goalie at 5 on 4 as it’s highly volatile.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Is this the right room for an argument?
I don’t have the breakdown for the offense, I’m afraid.
League average PKS% would be a reasonable starting place, I guess. I don’t have time to pull it out right now, but maybe I’ll look later.
1) Which one of those Buffslugs isn’t terrible? Can’t the Sabres just stick with LaFontaine-era jerseys forever?
2) Did you mail it in for the LOES question because it’s a difficult-to-quantify thing (i.e. risk-reward calculations, etc.) or because you were otherwise occupied? I’d think with a question as relevant to the Flyers—and as ripe for bashing them—you’d have been all over it.
I asked the writer if I could just say “Phil Kessel”, he said that would be funny. So rather than actually try to quantify – which, as you can see, is really difficult to do – I said fine, go with that.
And it’s the one with the swords behind a shield.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 23, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
I can see shoulder patch potential.
Separate thought I was having: has any team traded away more 1st round picks in the blind (i.e. not during the season that determines the order of the pick) than us? I doubt it.
Good question, no idea on the answer. haha
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 23, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions

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