How Good Do We Draft?

After finishing my research, I should have just combined this with my last post of "First Round Picks, Who Needs Them?" I brought up in the other post how consistent we are, and that has to change the way we draft. Right now the Flyers would never ever scout a player in the top half of the first round, because we simply won't pick up there. Using that as my backing, I analysed every pick 21-30 for each draft from 2000-2004 and then cross-referenced those numbers against our Flyer first round picks in recent history within the parameters of 21-30 overall.

Goalies: We drafted 3 guys in those slots, this wasn't really for the goalies. Boosh was the best of three Flyer late-first-round goalies that never quite hit their potential. in the years I looked over: Cam Ward was the only one with more than 75 games. Cory Schneider is the only other name i recognized.

Defense:

I broke down each defender into 3 categories: Top Pair Defender, Serviceable NHL defender, bust. 1 of 15 (Mike Green) was labeled as a "1". 20% were "3"'s, they never had a sniff of NHL time. Everyone else had at least 188 games played and was a "2" (73%). The Flyers have only taken 2 Defense since the 95 season where Homer was involved with the team as a part of the front office: Jeff Woywitka and Luca Sbisa. Jeff and Luca in "Gm-G-A-P-PIM" fashion: .02-.13-.15-.79 and .03-.17-.20-.57. Here is averages and standard deviation: .05-.17-.22-.58 and .06-.13-.18-.35. Both guys are right on the average in all parts. Not much to report here.

Forwards:

Here is all of the juicy stuff. I knew the Flyers were good at drafting, but I didn't know they were this good. Here are the numbers for forwards drafted 21-30 overall from 2000-04:

G/G = .19 (.10 STDEV)

A/G = .26 (.14 STDEV)

P/G = .46 (.24)

PIM = .86 (.58)

Of 30 forwards drafted, 3 were "1's" (Richards, Perry, Kessler) (10%), 15 (50%) were 2's, and 12 (40%) were 3's. I bet the Flyers picked more than 10% 1's!!!

1998 (22 Overall) Simone Gagne: .38-.39-.77-.41. He's 2 standard deviations above the mean in goals, 1 deviation above in assists and points, and is an excellent defensive forward as well.

2000 (28 Overall) Justin Williams: .25-.40-.65-.69. He's a half standard deviation above in goals,  a full one in assists, and two-thirds in points.

2003 (24 Overall) Mike Richards: .29-.48-.77-.89. 1 SD up in goals, 1.66 in assists, 1.33 in points, and is at the average in PIM's. I don't need to tell you how good he is.

2005 (29 Overall) Steve Downie: .21-.28-.49-2.62. I had no idea how solid of a player Downie has become down in TB. I just figured he only scored against us. Downie is a slightly above average scorer, slightly above average in assists-per-game (as well as points), but those aren't the Numbers that stick out. He's about 5 SD's above the mean. He is the "perfect pest." He plays with a star, he's physical as anyone, he fights, he scores, and everyone hates him. Its a shame he never worked out in orange and black because he'd be deadly in Carcillo's role (Versteeg-Richie-Downie would be amazing).

2006 (22 Overall) Claude Giroux: .24-.47-.71-.36. Half SD above in goals, one-and-a-third above in assists, and one up in points. Once again, you can youtube him if you want... I don't need to tell you)

What does this mean? It means that the Flyers pick out their guys well before they know if they are going to need a pick. Meaning, we traded for Versteeg because we knew that there are no prospects in the late first round that were worth the value of that first round pick. To be 5/5 in something that has a 10% chance of happening (10% 1's in the 30 sampled players) is incredible. Giroux, Richards, Gagne are all hands down top line players. Downie is probably a 2 but has the potential to be a 1 if he keeps scoring first and being a dick second. Justin Williams was given a 2 in the original data (he was drafted in 2000) but looking at him more, and his being a full standard deviation in assists and a half one in goals, AND being the 29th pick (data is from 21-30, he's at the bottom), I say that for the sake of being 5/5, he's a 1.

I'd love to see one other team draft forwards as well as we do from the late first round. We constantly draft players that play above their selection point... and that makes sense. Why else would we give up so many first round picks? If we didn't pick up Versteeg would anyone be disappointed with our playoff roster? Probably not. However, if you knew our first pick would bust, would you then want to trade it for Versteeg? I know I would. And considering that the Flyers, a team who drafts extremely well out of the late first round, have traded three strait first round picks away, I tend to agree that there isn't an abundance of talent out there.