Why have the Flyers struggled lately?
by Eric T. on Mar 28, 2011 11:06 AM EDT
in Philadelphia Flyers Commentary
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PrintWe've all been frustrated by the recent results (or lack thereof). After the jump, a quick look at some shooting trends points out one pretty clear problem.
I started with data on how the Flyers' Corsi percent has changed over the course of the season. It didn't show much change at all, and I suspected the reason was score effects: teams tend to shoot a lot more when they're losing, so any dropoff in the Flyers' play recently might be somewhat covered up by the score effects.
There's a simple solution to this problem: break things down and look at their Corsi when they're ahead, tied, or losing. That gives us the following chart, which shows a moving average of their recent performance in each of those scenarios.
Data this complicated is like a Rorschach test; everyone can come away with their own interpretation. But here's what I see:
- For most of the season, the Flyers' Corsi when trailing (56.8% for the year) and tied (52.2%) have been reasonably steady. There was a little slump in the middle of the season, but all things considered, they look pretty consistent.
- The Flyers Corsi when winning (43.5% for the year) tells a different story. It's been pretty steadily dropping all year long, leaving the fans increasingly frustrated at how this team can't hold a lead.
- The recent play has been decidedly mediocre. What the heck changed to make this team suddenly drop from getting ~53-55% of the shots in tied games to getting ~48%?
Let me make one small addition to this chart and see if I can answer that last question.
Get well, Prongs. We need you.
Edit: Great addition from zot22 -- Pronger also missed games 34-46, which happens to be right where that mid-season slump happened.
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Yep
People discount what Pronger does for this team, surprisingly.
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
Thank you Eric.
Everyone, buckle up
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Mar 28, 2011 11:20 AM EDT reply actions
Wow
Wow, this truly shows how much Pronger is missed, great post. Let’s get to the playoffs and turn this ship around before I pull my hair out. Consider my seat belt buckled
Why have the Flyers struggled lately?
Because this team only plays well when their backs are against the wall and when they start to get the feeling that they are the team to beat and they are destined to win they play bad and everything falls apart.
Start of last year everyone picked them to make it to at least the Conference Finals. They come out and lay and egg. They battle for a play off spot and gain momentum make it to the finals. The lose a game six where even though they were tied in the game they expected to go back to Chicago (I believe Briere gave the quote I am referencing) instead of going out and finishing the game off.
They come into this season expecting to make another run and don’t play well. They lose that expectation a bit that they will lead the conference to the final again and lo and behold they win and win a lot. Now they are on top of the division, Penguins lose Crosby and Malkin and the road gets easier, now the expectation climbs and poof their goes their game.
P.S. Sorry I don’t have a magic equation to quantify this into a rating, but it is the truth no matter now you try and mask it.
Locker Room Presence
I think this shows how important a strong locker room leader really is. With Pronger out of the lineup, he can’t exactly yell at guys for taking it easy. When Pronger does come back, expect the team to get a lift in their game. He really is our most valuable player if you look past the skill aspect of the definition.
He is still in the locker room. Just because a guy is injured doesn’t mean he is exiled from the team. And what I was saying has been going on for at least 2 years now. It might be his playing make people feel like they can turn down their game because he can help recover and thus when he is gone they don’t ratchet up their game. I honestly don’t know.
What you did see though is when Leighton was coming in as the 5th string goaltender for a while there the team as a whole played at a higher level. If the above would be true for the Pronger it could be viewed as an Anti-Pronger effect where they are trying to compensate for a guy who doesn’t necessarily have the skill set they are expecting so they over achieve as a whole instead of under achieving when someone is around. You see it all the time when you have a goalie come in mid game and all of a sudden the team gets it shit together. I remember those games when Niittimaki was a new face on the NHL scene and the Flyers would play out of their minds in front of him.
Maybe the rest of the team is just expecting someone to come save them instead of going out and saving themselves.
Maybe the rest of the team is just expecting someone to come save them instead of going out and saving themselves.
Hit the nail right on the head in my opinion.
He is still in the locker room. Just because a guy is injured doesn’t mean he is exiled from the team.
I’m not totally sure on this, but I have heard that Pronger doesn’t watch the games while he is injured. That means he isn’t around the locker room to affect the game day rituals. Sure he can say all he wants in practice, but until he is back in uniform without a yellow jersey its just things said at practice.
Might be true, don’t know about Pronger in general, but most players don’t disappear off the face of the earth when they are injured. Typically players have to be present at the game whether they are injured or not. But like I said, don’t know if Pronger is different, haven’t seen any evidence either way.
But yes you are right, normal game day rituals are shattered when your bones are.
That all being said … 100 points with 7 to play is still a really fucking good season and probably we wouldn’t be bitching nearly as much had these games didn’t come in big bunched and at a time when you expect them to win.
Can you add Pronger’s other period out of the lineup and see if it corresponds to the mid season dropoff? That would be really telling.
by zot22 on Mar 28, 2011 11:37 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Great call. I should’ve done that.
Unfortunately, I don’t have the data on this computer, so I can’t amend the chart easily, but you’re spot on. He missed games 34 to 46.
From eyeballing it, that roughly corresponds to a drop for the tied and trailing situations, but with a rise in the leading situation.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
We did go like 9-0 with out him the first time. Not like we aren’t winning now, but we were winning on and off the scoreboard before.
Man Crushin on Bob since 2010
by orangeandblack20 on Mar 28, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Haha, it’s funny, I was literally playing with the file at the moment you asked, because I wanted to see if other events were significant. I eyeballed it and added two more events to the timeline:
Obviously it might be shifted by a game or two, I tried to be close though.
by DragonGirl0583 on Mar 28, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Normally I wouldn’t use “locker room presence” as the reason why the Flyers are struggling on the ice, but the apathy this team has displayed over the last few games makes me wonder.
I also find it hard to believe that losing Pronger affects the talent of the team so much that the Corsi tied reduces to that level.
Mourning Gagne forever.
I think some of the dip is coincidental (i.e. bad play on ice independent of any effect Pronger could have), but they are working from a lower baseline. It’s not ridiculous to say they miss The He, but I doubt we can chalk up this play to the No Pronger factor. We’ve seen this type of play from this group of players chronically over the past four years, with or without Pronger.
They’ll rebound for the playoffs, because they are good hockey players and they always seem to get up for the playoffs. Even then, playing well won’t necessarily mean winning (see: 2009 v. Pens). That’s about the beginning and end of the story.
dips are coincidental
Yeah … I fixed that for ya.
Honestly I should have questioned the chart by dragongirl: Since the extra information isn’t plotted independently of the actual data where they placed where the game actually are or are they placed where you think they should be based on the combination of the relative position of time along the X axis and the actual points on the graph. I know it is just an estimate, but even the smallest bias can throw off something like that.
I didn’t guarantee it to be perfect, I just said I tried to be close. I blew up the magnification of the image and used the grid lines in the program to estimate where the games missed would fall on the x axis. I know that doesn’t make it perfect or unbiased, but that’s the method I used. I didn’t arbitrarily draw the the lines where I thought the trends changed, if that makes you feel any better.
by DragonGirl0583 on Mar 28, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
This team – Pronger the player – Pronger the locker room presence, shouldn’t be at 48-50% Corsi.
Kimmo’s quotes suggests that they are aware they aren’t as bad as they are playing, so I’m sure it’s as or more infuriating for them as it is for us, and they pull it together soon.
Mourning Gagne forever.
So my lines were a touch early, basically one game. I didn’t have the data and calculated it manually by date, so I may have counted the game numbers wrong, but at least I was pretty close.
by DragonGirl0583 on Mar 28, 2011 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
- When trailing, the Flyers have gotten 50.6% of the shots when Pronger was out and 61.0% when he was in.
- When tied, the Flyers have gotten 51.1% of the shots when Pronger was out and 52.4% when he was in.
- When leading, the Flyers have gotten 42.2% of the shots when Pronger was out and 44.1% when he was in.
And I still think this has less to do with Pronger as a single player, and more to do with the beneficial matchups the Flyers are afforded with Pronger in the lineup.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Is this the right room for an argument?
I don’t really see a difference, honestly. I think what you’re saying is that Pronger isn’t personally beating his opponents by a million shots, but when you put him in the top spot and bump everyone down one notch then their cumulative effect is large.
But when he’s out, they could have those same matchups for the other defensemen if they just slotted in their #7 guy in Pronger’s top-pairing spot. Then you’d see exactly how big a difference Pronger personally makes, relative to a replacement-level player.
They don’t do this, presumably because it would be even worse than bumping everyone up into tougher spots by one notch. So the difference Pronger makes over a replacement level player in his spot is even larger than the estimate above, because the estimate above includes the mitigating lineup-reshuffle.
I’d agree to that theoretically, I don’t think anyone would argue how Pronger is vastly superior to any replacement level player. However, that isn’t the way any team would operate. What you have represented in the article is the true effect in my mind for the reality of the situation; when a team loses it’s number 1, they replace them with their #3 or 4, or their #5 and move them down to a different match up.
Clearly the team isn’t as good without it’s best defenseman, the same can be said for any team. I just view the Flyers situation differently since they have 5 top 4 guys and an arguable 2 top pairings. I view the Flyers success more to do with the match ups they are afforded because of their depth rather than individual players. I view part of Pronger’s continued success as the result of the success of Timonen/Coburn. Maybe I’m wrong because I haven’t gone to look up the TOI charts for all the games, but I think Pronger has benefited from not having to play all the top line minutes this year, but rather sharing them with Timonen/Coburn. So I don’t think this loss is all about Pronger, but more to do with the advantage lost in match ups.
Again, I could be way off, but that’s just my thought process.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Is this the right room for an argument?
Thanks for the info. I expected that might be the case. It’s rare I actually see these posts now before they’re hours old. Even game threads I’m usually reading after the fact, but I still try to read most of the threads, even if I can’t contribute like I’d like to.
by zot22 on Mar 28, 2011 3:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Wow – shoulda read this before I posted on the other daily thread. I was just saying how Pronger’s absence might be a bigger deal than we thought … and here’s proof.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
Pronger would help in so far as they are a more talented team with Pronger, but I don’t think it’s a clear cause-and-effect situation here.
I agree to some extent. The stuff people are noticing about not getting the puck in deep on offense…Pronger probably doesn’t fix that.
But still, the correlation seems to be too strong to be coincidence.
Pronger doesn’t directly affect how the offense gets the puck deep or works the offensive zone, I agree with that. But, I’m willing to bet that Prongs wouldn’t hesitate to send a message in the locker room if he saw something that wasn’t being done right. Since he hasn’t been playing games he can’t be around to influence the rest of the team. He may be just an assistant captain, but his role goes much deeper than that.
Chris Pronger has the best first pass in the league. There is an absolute correlation between first pass and getting the puck in deep.
Man Crushin on Bob since 2010
by orangeandblack20 on Mar 28, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Unfortunately there’s no way to quantify if it’s his play or presence that’s missed.
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
by Mike B on D on Mar 28, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
True, but it would be interesting to see, if it was possible.
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
by Mike B on D on Mar 28, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I can think of one thing…
Is the team’s performance (Corsi, goals, whatever measure you like) worse when he’s scratched than during the minutes he’s off the ice in games he plays?
Its a totally different dynamic though…
Pronger in:
Prongs-Carle get top competition
Timo-Coby get mid comp
Mez-OD THRIVE on bottom competition
Prongs out:
Timo-Coby get top competition (1A and 1B, no real loss here)
Carle-Mez is a very solid second pairing
OD-Boynton is a very solid bottom pair
With Prongs in we have a major advantage in two ways. First, our third pair really excells (evidenced by the league lead in +/- for the first half of the year by both Mez and OD. Secondly, we have two legitimate top pairings with scoring threats in all 4 defenders. That means Pronger gets 50% zone starts in the offensive zone. Not many teams can afford their best defensive defender to get the best offensive zone start of all of the defense. When Pronger is out we lose both of those advantages.
Man Crushin on Bob since 2010
by orangeandblack20 on Mar 28, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d agree 100% here, except for one thing: Plus/minus is not good. There are much better ways to show that, even if you came to the right conclusion.
/nit-pick’d
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by Geoff Detweiler on Mar 28, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, Timonen and Coburn are getting the toughest competition, both in Corsi and QualComp.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Is this the right room for an argument?
Yeah, I noticed that. I was shocked to see Prong’s 50% zone start. But if you think about it, it makes sense. Pronger is our best offensive threat. Coburn has turned into a defensive defense men. Coby and Timo are turning into a more traditional shut down role while Prongs and Carle, both more offensive oriented, are getting the second level competition. Also, Coby and KImmo’s comp is boosted by the 20 games Prongs missed and they had the top competition.
Man Crushin on Bob since 2010
by orangeandblack20 on Mar 28, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I think in general they’ve had it most of the year. They were even for a while earlier in the season, more of a they were interchangeable thing. I don’t disagree that time missed has skewed the numbers a bit though (50 versus 75 games is a big gap). Regardless, there is nothing that states that Pronger and Carle are getting the clear #1 competition when in the line up.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Is this the right room for an argument?
If I said that Prongs and Carle were getting #1 competition I didn’t mean to. I was trying to say that Pronger and Carle are getting more offensive opportunities because we have Coby and Kimmo to handle tough defensive responsibilities. It all depends on match-ups and they flip up all of the time.
Man Crushin on Bob since 2010
by orangeandblack20 on Mar 28, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with how it changes the defensive assignments and how it effects the favorable match ups the Flyers have been afforded all year, which was your main point.
I was just nitpicking b/c you had Pronger/Carle top competition and Timonen/Coburn mid competition. That’s all. If anything because of the skill on the back end, its been an advantage to flip flop those pairs so they are facing mid level competition at different points throughout the year.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Is this the right room for an argument?
Oh, I totally meant Coby/Timo top competition, Prongs/Carle mid. Sorry about that.
However, when we play the Caps, I cant imagine Prongs wont be with OV on the “top pair.”
Man Crushin on Bob since 2010
by orangeandblack20 on Mar 28, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I have to go back and check, but I seem to remember Timonen/Coburn getting that matchup more often than not.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Is this the right room for an argument?
I’m with you. Kimmo is usually able to shut down Ovie and I’m pretty sure our resident Caps liason (red army line) has said so himself. It came up last year when there was a post somewhere about the best Dmen in the division
by DragonGirl0583 on Mar 28, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Just in case, I should say I’m hoping I’m not putting words in his mouth because I feel like I remember that, but if my memory is faulty I’m willing to admit it
by DragonGirl0583 on Mar 28, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Just ignore that attempt to cover myself there, because he really did say it.
by DragonGirl0583 on Mar 28, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I talk to myself normally, so doing it here isn’t really all that strange. I was doubting myself when I couldn’t find the comment, but I kept searching and finally located it.
by DragonGirl0583 on Mar 28, 2011 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
/smack
BAD BAD … there is always a way to quantify. Multiply shots for by number on jersey and raise to the power of neck width over 10 times the root of the day of birth and you have your quantity.
Ok… anyone know Pronger’s shirt size so we can test this?
And at least you didn’t use the rolled up newspaper…
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
by Mike B on D on Mar 28, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
which would be … (112 × 20) ^ 19 / (10 * 10^(1/2)) … assuming he wares an XXL shirt which for a man his size is accurate … 1.42e62 … which means he is only okay. Gretzky would have 4.32e78 at Prongers age which proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that Gretzky is the greatest player of all time
Proof again that he is the Great One.
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
The results are in!!!!
DRUM ROLL LADY AND GENTLEMEN
I now have statistical evidence of which Flyer is the most important to the team this year based on the formula above. It isn’t 100% accurate (but it that isn’t a requirement in advanced stats anyway) because I am estimating neck sized based on height of the individual. Here is the list!
1 Nikolay Zherdev 1.60E+75
2 Danny Briere 2.07E+71
3 Jeff Carter 3.15E+69
4 Andrej Meszaros 1.33E+69
5 Kimmo Timonen 1.53E+66
6 James van Riemsdyk 3.49E+65
7 Scott Hartnell 3.97E+64
8 Claude Giroux 2.93E+63
9 Ville Leino 8.01E+62
10 Chris Pronger 1.43E+62
11 Mike Richards 1.50E+61
12 Darroll Powe 4.95E+60
13 Matt Carle 1.90E+60
14 Jody Shelley 2.11E+58
15 Andreas Nodl 1.11E+55
16 Blair Betts 1.99E+50
17 Braydon Coburn 1.11E+50
18 Daniel Carcillo 2.66E+48
19 Kris Versteeg 4.59E+45
20 Sean O’Donnell 1.96E+41
21 Oskars Bartulis 2.89E+23
That is rank, players name and the score which I am calling the WTF rating. It proves we were all wrong about Meszaros’s role on the team. It proves the “Coburn you suck” comments that get shouted out of the stands at least 10 times a game. It proves Versteeg is the problem with the team and the slump coming around the time he got on the team wasn’t a coincidence. And Shelley is more important (like 7.9 trillion times more important) than Carcillo. Ben Holmstrom and Nick Boynton dropped off the list because of no shot.
does versteeg’s number account for the whole season or just as a flyer?
by phillies0100 on Mar 28, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m happy you wrote this because I think his importance has been slightly lost on a lot of the fans this season because of how much depth we have on defense. As good as our other top four are, they aren’t Pronger. Without him in the lineup our D goes from being elite to good, and so goes our team
by mantis toboggan on Mar 28, 2011 12:01 PM EDT reply actions
Kimmo is around the level of a Pronger. Around, not at. Prong’s is in the top 5 in the league, Kimmo isn’t below 15…
Man Crushin on Bob since 2010
by orangeandblack20 on Mar 28, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree, still not him. Being 6-6 puts some serious separation between him and Kimmo in terms of that they each bring
by mantis toboggan on Mar 28, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
we struggle terribly at clearing bodies and pucks from in front of the net. Pronger is good at this.
Well the FBI gets involved with finding the pucks he clears … you wonder what happens when the bodies start going missing. … If he does it in Montreal would Interpol need to get involved?
As long as they don’t notice the human femur in his locker we should be fine.
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
by Mike B on D on Mar 28, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
just a lack of effort and focus. horrible, lazy play at both ends of the ice. call it team malaise.
Eat what the monkey eats, then eat the monkey. -U.S. Navy survival guidance
Wouldn’t that be a leadership issue? Isn’t there another vocal leader in the locker room? Pronger is the only one?
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
by Mike B on D on Mar 28, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he’s a great player. He plays a complete game and is very good in all aspects of it. But I have doubts that he’s a vocal leader. From things heard and seen throughout the years I’m just not sure he’s the kind of leader that will call players out when needed.
Last year, in the playoffs he led by example. When he did not want to lose, he stepped up and dragged them all along with him. But I think he and Pronger struck a balance, where Pronger is the mouth.
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
But I have doubts that he’s a vocal leader
He isn’t a vocal leader, you don’t need to doubt it. He’s said it.
Man Crushin on Bob since 2010
by orangeandblack20 on Mar 28, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe I should have said “vocal enough”. But the question is, Is that enough?
I’ve seen different iterations of this team throughout the years. While successful for the most part, the best teams had more vocal leaders. Look back to the Bullies, and Primeau’s teams. Hell, let’s look to other teams that have won. Messier’s Rangers, or Oilers? When Tampa won the cup a few years ago, their captain (and I forget his name now) was extremely vocal. Ducks, they had Pronger as captain.
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
Dave Andreychuk was Tampa’s captain when they won. Easy to forget about him with guys like St. Louis and Lecavalier.. Looking at their roster: Brad Richards, Dan Boyle, and Pavel Kubina all played for them as well. Not so much to do with leadership but wow that team had some serious talent. Still think Flyers should have won the series in ’04 though.
I disagree totally on him not being a factor. His being appointed as captain there had a huge impact on them. I remember watching interviews with the team where he would not even let them walk on the team logo marked on the floor of the locker room. And that was from day 1.While they were great players and very good team. But he came in and changed the culture of the team.
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
Were really going to go to the leadership argument again?
Man Crushin on Bob since 2010
by orangeandblack20 on Mar 28, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
In terms of loud voices in the room, I’ve gathered that Pronger is basically the only one. Kimmo has been loud lately but he won’t get in people’s faces. And that’s not Richie’s style.
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by Travis Hughes on Mar 28, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Richie is the guy (from what the articles have said) who will find you after the game and talk and go over shit. Not the one that’s going to get in you face in front of everyone a la Grioux/Pronger.
Man Crushin on Bob since 2010
by orangeandblack20 on Mar 28, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Does Giroux do this as well? I had not heard that before.
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
I think he was talking about how a little over a week ago Giroux got chewed out by Pronger in front of everybody.
by DragonGirl0583 on Mar 28, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
It wasn’t in front of everybody.
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by Travis Hughes on Mar 28, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay, thanks for the clarification. But the way it got to the media and Homer stated that he agreed with Pronger calling Giroux out did make it pretty public.
by DragonGirl0583 on Mar 28, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
And if Prongs was in the locker room last night I hope he did the same thing, G had some bad turnovers with blind passes again (among others as well).
G, the second coming of Foppa.
by JerseyDriver on Mar 28, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, many of them did. I just said G because there were at least two plays where he was near his own blue line and could have chipped the puck out and he tried to use a little cutesy pass and turned it over. Not good puck management. When this team controls the puck well, they dominate.
G, the second coming of Foppa.
by JerseyDriver on Mar 28, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
In his knee which should have taken 2 – 3 weeks off.
G, the second coming of Foppa.
by JerseyDriver on Mar 28, 2011 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Flyers
I simply think they don’t care. The season is long and they have worked hard for the whole season, so these last few weeks they (mostly) all bow out. I believe it is what got John Stevens fired, the lack of caring the Flyers core can develop. Maybe Pronger is who gets them up to play, but that’s the trend I see.
I am sure come playoffs they will turn it on, but until then, get ready for a bunch of “mehs”.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
by Dr. Steve on Mar 28, 2011 1:22 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
No way they throw a “meh” tomorrow. If they do, then I need to re-evaluate this team as a whole.
Man Crushin on Bob since 2010
by orangeandblack20 on Mar 28, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I can only echo what has been said above – Pronger helps as much as we realize and also much, much more…
Time to be really concerned yet, vis a vis the postseason? Maybe…IMHO, it will all boil down to tomorrow’s game against the Pens (well, not entirely, but the result of this game will signal a lot going down the stretch). This game is the last the Flyers will have against an upper-level playoff team this regular season – the rest of their games are against lower-level playoff teams (e.g., Rags and Sabres) and non-playoff teams. So, they should do well (but that hasn’t been working out so well recently, has it?)…
Four possible results for tomorrow:
1) Flyers win in regulation – all is (relatively) well, then. We win the regular season series w/ the Pens, and we extend our overall lead. Probably seals up the Atlantic Division for us, but not necessarily the #1 seed in the conference that we all want.
2) Pens win in regulation – this would be bad. No more lead in the division or conference, tied series w/ the Pens, and we look like we can’t win a game that really matters (i.e., continuing the trend we started from when we lost to the Caps and the games after that). Don’t really want to dwell on this potentiality…
3) Pens win in OT/SO – I fear that this happens as well. Strangely, we would still be #1 by a point (depending on what the Caps do as well). Tied season series. We continue the strange limbo situation where the Flyers aren’t playing well, yet are still holding on to the top seed. It’s a bit draining to watch…
4) Flyers win in OT/SO – better than options 2 or 3 above, but not as good as a clean kill. Also, continues the weird limbo feeling. Nothing wrapped up at all (division or conference, that is).
Let’s hope they snap out of the funk tomorrow.
#1 Flyers fan in England (originally from Southeastern PA)
by Orange and Black Forever on Mar 28, 2011 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
1) Flyers win in regulation – all is (relatively) well, then. We win the regular season series w/ the Pens
The Flyers have already won the regular season series vs. the Penguins, regardless of what happens tomorrow.
So far, the teams have played five times with ten points on the line. The Flyers’ record is 3-1-1, for seven out of ten points.
The Penguins are 2-3-0, for four out of ten points. Even if the Pens win in regulation tomorrow, the Flyers will finish with seven out of twelve points against Pittsburgh, and the Pens would have six out of twelve.
Also, remember that the tiebreaker is Non-Shootout wins. The Flyers have only won three games in the shootout while Pittsburgh has won nine. In that sense, we’ll be first in the division no matter what happens tomorrow.
That said, a regulation win would be splendid.
"Darroll can't see it, blind to the eyes;
He came up in your face OOPS POWE SURPRISE!"
Man-crushin' on #36 since he hit his "absolute ceiling" as a rookie in 2008.
by mikefive on Mar 28, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I stand corrected (although I knew about the difference in quality of wins).
Still, a thorough analysis should always get its props. :)
#1 Flyers fan in England (originally from Southeastern PA)
by Orange and Black Forever on Mar 28, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I want the regulation win, but they should be pushing down the stretch as well, because those “lower playoff” teams are who they will be matched against, so send a message now. We will crush you.
G, the second coming of Foppa.
by JerseyDriver on Mar 28, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. I want us to pound Buffalo (and everyone else, esp. Atlanta and the Rags) when we meet them one last time in the regular season, even if we have the #1 seed wrapped up by then. The message must be delivered…
#1 Flyers fan in England (originally from Southeastern PA)
by Orange and Black Forever on Mar 28, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Shelley
When they brought in Shelley, much was made of his presence in the locker room as well as his ability to protect teammates.
With both he and Pronger missing, compounded with the loss of Lappy, I think the room has a decided lack of veteran players that will get into each other’s faces in order to hold one another accountable.
"We take the shortest route to the puck and arrive in ill humour." -Fred Shero
by Pbro42 on Mar 28, 2011 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
There’s a thought.
Man Crushin on Bob since 2010
by orangeandblack20 on Mar 28, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Was Shelley truly an in your face guy, or was he supposed to fit a different mold? I don’t know if it’s a lack of in your face guys, but maybe the mix is missing a component. I don’t think Lappy was an in your face guy, that’s why I wonder if there’s a mix of things missing.
by DragonGirl0583 on Mar 28, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry to bring up another point, but who in the hell starts in net for the postseason? I truly do not envy Lavy’s having to decide. I can’t make up my mind at all – there are pros and cons for both.
Strictly based on intuition, I suspect that Bob may get the nod, but I have almost no confidence in this prediction.
What do we think?
#1 Flyers fan in England (originally from Southeastern PA)
by Orange and Black Forever on Mar 28, 2011 1:55 PM EDT reply actions
My prediction is they start splitting time down the stretch, and people will assume Lavy is making the decision, but he’s already decided on Bob and is merely making sure his legs are fresh.
He will probably go with Bobrovsky actually. With 7 games left you might see Boosh start one more I’d guess. That is of course as long as Bobrovsky plays well. If he doesn’t he will get yanked. He is on a short leash.
by ic0n67 on Mar 28, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
this this this this!
Nodl sucked last game, maybe they’ll shake it up with big Z!
by OrangeNblacK on Mar 28, 2011 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions
But last game, LAST GAME man
G, the second coming of Foppa.
by JerseyDriver on Mar 28, 2011 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I want haf Eddie. Haf.
G, the second coming of Foppa.
by JerseyDriver on Mar 28, 2011 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
He did play great in the Caps game, I just remember a bunch of turnovers in the last game. I just want Zherdev to play…
/ranting a little bit
by OrangeNblacK on Mar 28, 2011 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions
From a physicality standpoint? If the Pens were healthy, I’d love to have the Richie line and the Betts-Powe-NODL line’s get shut-down roles vs. Crosby and vs. Malkin, and throw the other 6 out there in more offensive roles.
by OrangeNblacK on Mar 28, 2011 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes. The Pens have a lot of goons, and I get the feeling a few of them would love to run around without Carcillo. Most games I would definitely have Z over Carcillo, but I get the feeling the Pens would take advantage of that.
Mourning Gagne forever.
Meh. The biggest goon, Cooke, is out. Beyond that, Rupp and Asham aren’t the kind of guys to take real liberties – they return punishment, but don’t usually start trouble. Godard is definitely a bit of a goon, but Carbomb would be seriously outclassed in a fight with him. I’m just not sure … that all said, I think Carcillo gets the nod anyway. SOD is the only other pugilist on the active roster, so unless Richie gets his fight on (as suggested elsewhere, and dismissed as well) the boxing stats are a bit thin.
Maybe the way for Zherdev to win a spot in the lineup is to get in a fight?
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Mar 29, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't have a problem with Nodl - on the 4th line
Sit Carcillo. He hasn’t looked good, and the 4th line got scored on – AGAIN.
No, their only goal was on the PP against Richie/G/Mez/Carle. The last 4th line goal given up without Boynton behind them was the first of Washington’s goals.
by DragonGirl0583 on Mar 28, 2011 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
If you still want Carcillo benched that’s fine, I’m just clarifying what’s on the scoresheet.
by DragonGirl0583 on Mar 28, 2011 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions
But Boynton was on the ice for the Islanders one. I can’t lay 100% on Carcillo knowing Boynton was out there.
by DragonGirl0583 on Mar 28, 2011 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Power Play with and without Pronger?
Nice post, Eric. Do you happen to have access to data that could measure our PP’s performance with and without Pronger this year? At least early-on in the season, it kind of looked to me like Pronger was playing absolutely dreadful on the man-advantage and I wondered whether or not he might have something to do with our slow start in that regard. I doubt we’ve gotten much better since then, but I’m still curious as to whether or not there’s any significant difference in our performance with/without him.
Thanks!
Do you mean while he’s not on the rink during the power play, or PP success in games he didn’t play in?
Mourning Gagne forever.
I was only thinking in games with/without him, but adding the times that he was playing in the game but not on the ice might be an interesting thing to look at as well. Basically I just want an answer to the question of whether or not he’s hurting our PP success rate.
Pronger has the second highest GFON/60, behind Kimmo (I’m not including Versteeg). Pronger has the second lowest GFOFF/60, behind Kimmo. So the Flyers score a lot more when he is on than when he is off.
He has the second highest CorsiON, behind Carter (+/- of shots), and the fourth lowest CorsiOFF.
By those numbers, Pronger is not the problem with the powerplay. It would take a lot longer to look at the games with/without Pronger PP success, but those numbers suggest it would be worse without Pronger
Mourning Gagne forever.
Yeah, although we have the same caveat here as we discussed above: when Pronger is off the ice, it means a second unit is running. Comparing the first unit with Pronger to the second unit isn’t the same as comparing the team performance with him to their performance without him (when someone else would be on the first unit).
I think that because he’s so close to the top in GFON/60, that we’ll find that the team does do better with him than without. But we’ll have to dig the data up (and yes, I’ll do it) to show this.
Yeah it’s two different things, but this shows that Pronger increases goal scoring and Corsi when he is on the ice compared to (presumably) the second unit.
Will you hate me if I said I started doing it then realised it sucked and figured you would do it anyway? :)
Mourning Gagne forever.
Haha. I finally put together a database of all their shots for the year, so this kind of thing is easy for me now.
They’re 16.1% for the PP (9-56) in his two absences combined. They’re 16.7% for the year.
They’re averaging 1.3 SOG/PP during his absences. They’re averaging 1.3 for the year.
So…I’m not seeing a big difference.
I took all the play by play reports from the Flyers games this year and parsed them, but the “who was on the ice” part got all bungled.
So my database has every event (goals, SOG, missed shots, blocked shots, hits, takeaways, giveaways, faceoffs, penalties, etc) from their games, with info about who was involved in the event but not who else was on the ice when it happened.
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